http://www.physorg.com/news3647.html
In the same line of earthquakes warning, it is worthy of note the overall increase in number and magnitudes that events in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)have shown following the Sumatra Boxing Day Big Earthquake and its companion last week. As stated before, it is common for a Big Earthquake (> 8.0 Mgn)to be followed by one at least Major Eartquake (>7.0 mgn). In the Sumatra case, the 9.3 Mw was followed by an 8.7 Mw, which should be fit. What remains to be seen is the following 8.0, 7.8, etc.. which should take place in the area in the next months, up to two years at least.
As the whole Earth has been ringing since boxing day, we have seen here in the NPSZ an increase in activity, magnitudes, two or three swarms and two very odd tremors in the amazon.We can expect, therefore, that as the NPSZ accounts for about 1/8th of global seismicity, some of the Major Earthquakes still misssing this year will take place in South America.
On the same hand, we can expect to see some Big or Major Earthquakes in the other "branches" of global seismicity, namely the Himalayan way to Anatolia and the Philipines way to Alaska. If this should happen accordingly, it will take no time for everybody to realize that global seismicity is not "chaotic" but "related".
I remember the earthquakes in Laoag. They remided me of the ones on the Queen Charlottes -- small, but fairly frequent... I viewed them as being relatively benign; a form of stress relief. Of course, though, there was 1982... and; if that Abra restraining bend ever lets go, well...! Sayang.
QUOTE (rafael peralta+Apr 10 2005, 01:11 AM)
http://www.physorg.com/news3647.html
In the same line of earthquakes warning, it is worthy of note the overall increase in number and magnitudes that events in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)have shown following the Sumatra Boxing Day Big Earthquake and its companion last week. which should take place in the area in the next months,
As the whole Earth has been ringing since boxing day, we have seen here in the NPSZ an increase in activity, magnitudes, two or three swarms and two very odd tremors in the amazon.We can expect, therefore, that as the NPSZ accounts for about 1/8th of global seismicity, some of the Major Earthquakes still misssing this year will take place in South America.
On the same hand, we can expect to see some Big or Major Earthquakes in the other "branches" of global seismicity, namely the Himalayan way to Anatolia and the Philipines way to Alaska. If this should happen accordingly, it will take no time for everybody to realize that global seismicity is not "chaotic" but "related".
Further to the quoted entry, it has now taken place two new major earthquakes, a 7.9 Mw magnitud 100 Kms deep major earthquake on the western side of the Andes Mountains in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)and a 7.0 Mw magnitud 10 Km deep major earthquake off the coast of California.
NEIC: Earthquake Search Results
U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E
FILE CREATED: Wed Jun 15 08:14:16 2005
Global Search Earthquakes= 4
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2005 - 2005 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 06/Day: 13
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-W 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwGS 3C M .......
PDE-W 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS 5F M .......
PDE-W 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.70 MwHRV .C M 3TS....
PDE-Q 2005 06 13 224433.31 -19.90 -69.12 108 7.90 MwGS .. . .......
These new major earthquakes add up to the two major earthquakes that took place in the "Australian Brach (Tonga) region". The NPSZ earthquake adds more tension to the long time "locking" coast line seismic gap between the cities of Arica and Antofagasta, while the California earthquake could be a sign of further activity in the California Coast Line-Continent.
Regards,
Rafael Peralta
In the same line of earthquakes warning, it is worthy of note the overall increase in number and magnitudes that events in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)have shown following the Sumatra Boxing Day Big Earthquake and its companion last week. which should take place in the area in the next months,
As the whole Earth has been ringing since boxing day, we have seen here in the NPSZ an increase in activity, magnitudes, two or three swarms and two very odd tremors in the amazon.We can expect, therefore, that as the NPSZ accounts for about 1/8th of global seismicity, some of the Major Earthquakes still misssing this year will take place in South America.
On the same hand, we can expect to see some Big or Major Earthquakes in the other "branches" of global seismicity, namely the Himalayan way to Anatolia and the Philipines way to Alaska. If this should happen accordingly, it will take no time for everybody to realize that global seismicity is not "chaotic" but "related".
Further to the quoted entry, it has now taken place two new major earthquakes, a 7.9 Mw magnitud 100 Kms deep major earthquake on the western side of the Andes Mountains in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ)and a 7.0 Mw magnitud 10 Km deep major earthquake off the coast of California.
NEIC: Earthquake Search Results
U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E
FILE CREATED: Wed Jun 15 08:14:16 2005
Global Search Earthquakes= 4
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2005 - 2005 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 06/Day: 13
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-W 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwGS 3C M .......
PDE-W 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS 5F M .......
PDE-W 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.70 MwHRV .C M 3TS....
PDE-Q 2005 06 13 224433.31 -19.90 -69.12 108 7.90 MwGS .. . .......
These new major earthquakes add up to the two major earthquakes that took place in the "Australian Brach (Tonga) region". The NPSZ earthquake adds more tension to the long time "locking" coast line seismic gap between the cities of Arica and Antofagasta, while the California earthquake could be a sign of further activity in the California Coast Line-Continent.
Regards,
Rafael Peralta
Great work Rafael !
I was in the unique position to personally experience both (7.9 Tarapaca & 7.2 N.Cal) earthquakes, having left Santiago the evening of the 13th, and ariving in Oakland on the afternoon of the 14th. I have a version of tinnitus that causes the perception of sound (actually a beat frequency caused by the slight tuning differences of left and right ear) when the precursor scalar waves of an earthquake are being generated. In the case of the magnitude and my proximity to the Tarapaca quake, I felt a pulsating pressure variation in my lower legs about 6 hours prior to the quake, and was able to predict the impending quake to my fiance'. Neeless to say, these type of personal experiences have pushed me to study seismic wave phenomena for many years now.
I would like your opinion on the following symmetrical pattern:
Look at the "anticenter" of the 9.0 Sumatra quake (opposing side of planet, past the shadow zone of p-wave direction), and the anticenter of the 7.9 Tapaca quake. The neic.usgs.gov site has nice maps of this; click on the quakes mentioned above, and then click the link to "theoretical p-wave travel times".
Now add the fact that the Sumatra quake happened the week after winter solstice and the Tarapaca quake ocurred a week before the winter soltice (S.Hemisphere).
[I won't go into the angular intersection of our magnetic field with extra-terrestial based radiations]
Given the follow-up Sumatra quake of 8.7 on 28 march 2005, what do you think of the possibility of a quake happening near Lima in the latter part of September of this year, in the neighborhood of 7.4?
TRoc
I was in the unique position to personally experience both (7.9 Tarapaca & 7.2 N.Cal) earthquakes, having left Santiago the evening of the 13th, and ariving in Oakland on the afternoon of the 14th. I have a version of tinnitus that causes the perception of sound (actually a beat frequency caused by the slight tuning differences of left and right ear) when the precursor scalar waves of an earthquake are being generated. In the case of the magnitude and my proximity to the Tarapaca quake, I felt a pulsating pressure variation in my lower legs about 6 hours prior to the quake, and was able to predict the impending quake to my fiance'. Neeless to say, these type of personal experiences have pushed me to study seismic wave phenomena for many years now.
I would like your opinion on the following symmetrical pattern:
Look at the "anticenter" of the 9.0 Sumatra quake (opposing side of planet, past the shadow zone of p-wave direction), and the anticenter of the 7.9 Tapaca quake. The neic.usgs.gov site has nice maps of this; click on the quakes mentioned above, and then click the link to "theoretical p-wave travel times".
Now add the fact that the Sumatra quake happened the week after winter solstice and the Tarapaca quake ocurred a week before the winter soltice (S.Hemisphere).
[I won't go into the angular intersection of our magnetic field with extra-terrestial based radiations]
Given the follow-up Sumatra quake of 8.7 on 28 march 2005, what do you think of the possibility of a quake happening near Lima in the latter part of September of this year, in the neighborhood of 7.4?
TRoc
Troc,
I had to look at the map in order to get an answer to your question.
1.- The antipode to the Aceh earthquake, is a point just south of the equator, off the coast of Ecuador. There was a swarm which produced 4 strong earthquakes (magnitud > 6.0) in the month after the Aceh quake. Further strong earthquakes have occurred there lately. A major earthquake there is in the forecast below which dates from the year 2002, for which the Aceh quake could be a triggering influence now, hence the swarm.
2.- The antipode to the Tarapaca earthquake, is a point near the coast in Pakistan.
Not really near Sumatra. It is nearer to the 2001 India Big earthquake.
3.- The Solstice relationship you point out is probably of mistic interest only, as dates or solar positions are of no consequence as yet, although many people have observed planetary relations, even navy commodores of old.
4.- As to your special sensory perception, I believe it is possible that it might work as you say. I have an open mind about that. Actually and this means no personal offence or comparison, but yet another extra sensory perception, the chinese and other peoples believe animals can "feel" the oncoming of an earthquake, with unrest, howling, crowing, or laying down attitudes. On the day of the Tarapaca earthquake as I picked up two workers from the field in the valley from Arica, they told me "how roosters made a loud chorus all around the farms in the mid day hours, that is some six hours before the onset of the mainshock and about the same time you felt it. Extrange but very possible.
5.- As to the possibility of a 7.4 Mw earthquake near Lima, Peru in the very near future, yes, thare is a very high probability of that occurring, as the forecast for a landlocked nortrhern Peru is a fact.
The above mentioned forecast follows, much regards
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR BIG AND MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AT THE NAZCA PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE.
Further to the conclusions reached in "Understanding Earthquakes in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone" sent on 28th August 2002, the "Statistical Analysis Report" and the "Aftershock Analysis Report and Update of the Arequipa earthquake of June 23rd 2001" sent in the years 2003 and 2004 to AGU, USGS and Journal of Seismology, hereby follows this resume on the claims, results and new findings on the theme.
1. It was noticed and noted in the year 2000, that in the four months following Major earthquake 2000 04 23, a 7.0 Mw , 608 Km deep event, there occurred several earthquakes that could be considered as Remote Triggered Seismicity. See Table 1.
2. Triggering influence extended North West and South West from this source. North West reached site of future rupture in 100 days (2000 08 03)and triggered Major Earthquake on 2000 05 12 and Strong Earthquake on 2000 11 29. South West reached as far as the Peru-Chile Trench on 2000 12 20 and RTS earthquake 2000 06 16 triggered three Strong Earthquakes on 2001 01 07, 2001 03 15 and 2001 04 09, in Central Chile.
3. Big Earthquake 2001 06 23 triggered over 270 aftershocks, including Slab, Crust and Mantle response earthquakes. (See Map Nª 1)
4. There seems to be a connection between this rupture on the Coast Line and a location on the eastern rise of the Andes mountains, wich is some 800 Kms away. ( 1998 05 22 and 2001 07 04 CRE`s)
5. Triggering influence of Big Earthquake 2001 06 23 seems to end with RTS on 2003 03 28.
6. Strong earthquake on 2002 04 01 starts a new sequence in Central Chile that turns five strong earthquakes in 80 days. The area is again shaken on 2003 06 20, a 6.80 Mw 33 Km deep earthquake.
7. 2003 07 27, a 6.00 Mw, 345 Km deep is a very deep earthquake north of Increased Activity Deep Area. 2004 03 17 turns a 289 Km deep 6.1 Mw earthquake. Both these depths are uncommon.
8. 2004 05 03 and 2004 06 15 are two strong earthquakes just north of South West RTS limit of 2000 12 20 event. 2004 08 27 and 2004 09 07 are two strong CRE`s on eastern rise of Andes Mountains.
9. 2004 11 12, 2005 03 21 and 2005 03 21 are three strong Extra Deep Earthquakes (EDE`s) wihch could be the source of future Remote Triggered Seismicity.
10. Most likely areas to be triggered are seismic gaps North and South of Big Earthquakes 2001 06 23 and 1995 07 30,(Nazca, Iquique, Tocopilla, Taltal, Chañaral), the areas South of San Antonio- North of Concepcion ( Vichuquén, Cauquenes) and the area South of Puerto Saavedra.
11. The area off the Coast of Ecuador, which is in itself under the triggering influence of Strong EDE ´s of 2002 10 12, 2003 04 27 and Major EDE of 2003 06 20, was affected by a swarm of four strong earthquakes in seven days (Post Big Sumatra Earthquake period) and still shows signs of activity. During this post Big (Sumatra, 2004 12 26) earthquake, two "weird" (uncommon) earthquakes occurred in the Amazon and Matto Grosso area on 2005 02 08 and 2005 03 23. It is common practice to look for areas first affected by Big Earthquakes, therefore due observation will be made of earthquakes following the recent 8.7 Mw Big Earthquake (RTS) of Sumatra on 2005 03 28.
In the above account and Table 1 many earthquakes have been omitted on purpose and although the relation in between the mentioned ones remains, the fact is that most of the Risk Areas signaled in the previous reports have been affcted by some strong activity and the ones that have not, they remain to be seen. Table 2 shows activity moved North and South to date.
RISK FACTORS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT ARE :
- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in space (Historic Seismicity)
- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in Time (Historic Seismicity)
- Triggering Influence of Big and Major Earthquakes
- Increased Activity Areas at shallow, intermediate and sub-crust depths
- Activity at sub-slab depths (Mantle Response Earthquakes. MRE´s)
- Activity at or near the Liquifaction Zone of the mantle (EDE´s)
- Inlfuence transference cycles to and from the Liquifaction Zone
- Mantle Response Earthquakes (MRE´s)
- Crust Response Earthquakes (CRE´s)
Sent on this day of April 5th 2005.
Rafael Peralta
peraltaquake@hotmail.com
Arica, CHILE
TABLE 1
2000 04 23 092723.32 28.31 S 62.99 W 608 Km 7.00 Mw Extra Deep Earthquake (EDE)
2000 04 23 124854.30 28.39 S 62.95 W 622 Km 4.50 mb Aftershock
2000 04 23 170117.47 28.38 S 62.94 W 609 Km 6.10 Mw Aftershock
2000 04 24 103217.20 17.98 S 70.63 W 55 Km 5.10 mb First to react Slab Response Earthquake (SRE)
2000 04 25 002318.01 13.27 S 74.96 W 107 Km 5.10 mb SRE
2000 04 29 045651.90 20.98 S 67.45 W 181 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 04 29 174246.72 17.60 S 69.55 W 154 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 04 29 195221.62 6.41 S 77.06 W 124 Km 5.70 mb SRE
2000 04 30 053125.87 27.02 S 66.04 W 35 Km 5.10 mb Crust Response Earthquake(CRE)
2000 05 01 001955.62 24.11 S 66.68 W 207 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 05 03 175235.60 17.59 S 69.42 W 148 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 05 07 074403.33 17.09 S 64.91 W 36 Km 4.40 mb Crust Response Earthquake(CRE)
2000 05 09 004540.07 25.96 S 69.91 W 57 Km 5.20 mb SRE
2000 05 09 020241.22 18.28 S 73.36 W 33 Km 4.60 mb Nazca Plate side of Trench
2000 05 09 110237.41 12.91 S 76.64 W 59 Km 4.60 mb SRE
2000 05 12 115848.14 27.75 S 70.47 W 75 Km 4.70 mb SRE
2000 05 12 184318.12 23.55 S 66.45 W 225 Km 7.20 Mw Remote Triggered Seismicity(RTS)
2000 06 16 075535.39 33.88 S 70.09 W 120 Km 6.50 Mw Remote Triggered Seismicity(RTS)
2000 07 13 052518.37 16.67 S 71.39 W 37 Km 5.00 mb
2000 08 03 192210.88 17.54 S 71.97 W 33 Km 5.90 Mw Precursory sequence start
2000 08 03 192555.80 17.68 S 71.96 W 33 Km 5.20 mb On future rupture
2000 08 03 222145.69 17.54 S 71.87 W 80 Km 4.80 mb Mantle Response Earthquake
2000 08 11 173114.74 17.72 S 70.20 W 56 Km 5.20 mb On future rupture
2000 08 18 132103.07 19.14 S 70.18 W 69 Km 5.40 mb Across bay from future rupture
2000 08 22 111750.38 17.43 S 71.93 W 79 Km 4.60 mb Precursory sequence end
2000 09 09 111520.01 17.07 S 70.71 W 116 Km 4.70 mb
2000 09 27 050247.97 16.55 S 72.72 W 46 Km 5.10 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake
2000 11 27 105428.05 24.45 S 69.07 W 57 Km 5.00 mb
2000 11 29 102514.14 24.50 S 70.55 W 58 Km 6.40 Mw Mantle Response Earthquake
2000 12 20 112356.93 39.06 S 74.43 W 33 Km 6.40 Mw Southernmost RTS (End)
2001 01 12 104739.52 15.58 S 74.71 W 33 Km 5.40 Ms North of future rupture
2001 01 15 115329.59 15.44 S 74.90 W 33 Km 5.20 Ms North of future rupture
2001 02 22 200620.46 16.70 S 72.97 W 33 Km 5.00 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake
2001 03 22 091740.40 16.44 S 72.42 W 33 Km 4.40 mb Near future rupture
2001 03 22 180154.67 16.06 S 72.07 W 33 Km 4.60 mb Near future rupture
2001 04 04 064528.29 18.97 S 68.19 W 33 Km 4.80 mb CRE
2001 04 17 014211.14 20.76 S 70.47 W 33 Km 5.10 mb
2001 05 05 123740.29 18.00 S 73.71 W 33 Km 4.70 mb Nazca Plate side of Trench
2001 05 05 152657.46 16.79 S 69.50 W 196 Km 4.80 mb
2001 05 08 184152.77 17.41 S 69.00 W 117 Km 4.70 mb
2001 05 18 013143.09 17.38 S 69.78 W 33 Km 4.60 mb CRE
2001 05 22 203811.73 15.44 S 70.62 W 197 Km 4.50 mb
2001 05 24 003909.04 20.14 S 67.11 W 205 Km 5.40 Mw
2001 05 28 064128.51 16.13 S 73.92 W 52 Km 4.90 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake
2001 06 15 131601.39 18.26 S 70.44 W 53 Km 4.90 mb South of future rupture
2001 06 23 203314.13 16.26 S 73.64 W 33 Km 8.40 Mw Big Earthquake
2001 06 23 212735.71 17.18 S 72.64 W 33 Km 6.10 mb Strong Earthquake (Aftershock)
2001 06 26 041831.60 17.75 S 71.65 W 33 Km 6.70 Mw Strong Earthquake (Aftershock)
2001 06 29 183551.18 19.52 S 66.25 W 273 Km 6.10 Mw Deep SRE, RTS
2001 07 04 120903.47 17.00 S 65.71 W 33 Km 6.20 Mw CRE, RTS
2001 07 05 135349.73 16.09 S 73.99 W 62 Km 6.60 Mw MRE
2001 07 07 095843.83 17.45 S 72.04 W 33 Km 7.60 Mw Major Earthquake
2001 07 12 071504.94 17.43 S 66.04 W 33 Km 4.70 mb CRE
2001 07 24 050009.05 19.54 S 69.25 W 33 Km 6.40 Mw CRE
2001 08 28 065609.97 21.72 S 70.11 W 65 Km 5.90 mb MRE
2001 10 26 185956.71 14.77 S 70.50 W 212 Km 5.80 Mw Deep SRE
2002 03 28 045621.73 21.66 S 68.33 W 125 Km 6.50 Mw SRE (End of RTS`s)
TABLE 2
2002 03 28 045622.40 21.66S 68.33W 125 Km 6.50 Mw Last RTS from Table 1
2002 04 01 195932.48 29.67S 71.38W 71 Km 6.40 Mw First strong event after a year
2002 04 18 160836.78 27,53S 70.59W 62 Km 6.70 Mw
2002 05 23 155215.28 30.75S 71.20W 52 Km 6.00 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2002 05 28 040422.53 28.94S 66.80W 22 Km 6.00 Mb CRE
2002 06 18 135622.83 30.81S 71.12W 54 Km 6.60 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2002 09 24 035722.28 31.52S 69.20W 119 Km 6.30 Mw SRE
2002 10 12 200911.46 8.30S 71.74W 534 Km 6.90 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 01 07 005451.56 33.76S 70.05W 110 Km 6.00 Mb SRE
2003 04 27 225744.84 8.19S 71.59W 559 Km 6.00 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 06 03 235802.74 17.36S 72.81W 33 Km 6.00 Mw At 2001 06 23 rupture
2003 06 20 061938.91 7.61S 71.72W 558 Km 7.10 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 06 20 133041.64 30.61S 71.64W 33 Km 6.80 Ms Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2003 07 27 114127.05 20.13S 65.18W 345 Km 6.00 Mw VDE, SRE
2003 08 26 211135.70 17.16S 70.67W 31 Km 5.80 Mb At 2001 06 23 rupture
2003 09 17 213447.17 21.47S 68.32W 127 Km 5.90 Mb At 2002 03 28 location
2003 12 10 122551.54 27.96S 71.32W 33 Km 5.80 Mw At sea from 2002 04 18
2004 01 23 050030.64 23.03S 69.88W 71 Km 5.90 Mw
2004 01 27 160037.91 17.81S 71.05W 57 Km 5.80 Mw At 2001 06 23 rupture
2004 02 04 051844.82 26.13S 63.46W 558 Km 5.80 Mw EDE
2004 03 17 032107.91 21.12S 65.59W 289 Km 6.10 Mw VDE, SRE
2004 03 22 042258.45 22.94S 64.36W 16 Km 5.80 Mw CRE
2004 05 03 043650.04 37.69S 73.41W 21 Km 6.60 Mw At southern sector
2004 06 15 111631.50 38.85S 73.15W 37 Km 6.10 Mw At southern sector
2004 08 27 004354.54 27.42S 70.81W 30 Km 5.90 Mw Near 2002 04 18
2004 08 28 134127.91 34.93S 70.39W 1 Km 6.50 Mw CRE
2004 09 07 115306.11 28.57S 65.84W 22 Km 6.40 Mw CRE
2004 09 28 213218.67 15.69S 74.53W 27 Km 5.80 Mw NW from 2001 06 23 Site
2004 11 12 063616.76 26.70S 63.32W 568 Km 6.10 Mw EDE
2004 12 08 060355.59 30.84S 71.22W 44 Km 5.80 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2004 12 18 175722.97 16.20S 73.85W 27 Km 5.80 Mw NW from 2001 06 23 Site
2004 12 26 9.30 Mw GRAN SISMO DE SUMATRA
2005 01 21 134514.05 1.13S 80.83W 10 Km 6.00 Mw Start of swarm at northern sector
2005 01 22 025707.25 22.25S 63.64W 526 Km 5.20Mw EDE
2005 01 24 232324.47 1.39S 80.79W 7 Km 6.10 Mw At northern sector
2005 01 28 092617.79 1.19S 81.20W 10 Km 6.10 Mw At northern sector
2005 01 28 154645.27 1.09S 81.16W 10 Km 6.20 Mw At northern sector
2005 02 08 180422.44 2.22S 63.62W 18 Km 4.40 Mb At Amazon`s uncommon location
2005 03 01 072405.63 31.43S 71.69W 25 Km 5.30 Mb At coast line
2005 03 21 122354.35 24.91S 63.40W 579 Km 6.90 Mw EDE
2005 03 21 124312.51 24.66S 63.45W 569 Km 6.40 Mw EDE
2005 03 13 203859.91 32.59S 71.68W 25 Km 5.30 Mb At Coast Line
2005 03 14 124344.41 28.57S 65.93W 23 Km 5.60 MD CRE
2005 03 19 142330.04 27.78S 71.15W 24 Km 5.00 Mb At sea
2005 03 23 211200.xx 11.60S 56.78W 10 Km 5.10 Mb At Amazon`s uncommon location
2005 03 29 163820.10 33.71S 72.28W 34 Km 5.10 Mb MRE at sea
2005 03 31 163340.74 23.51S 64.53W 35 Km 5.10 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 215052.36 23.27S 64.38W 10 Km 4.90 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 215235.62 22.94S 64.65W 10 Km 5.20 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 222208.54 23.49S 64.14W 10 Km 4.70 mb CRE
2005 04 06 104604.10 35.35S 70.95W 117Km 6.00 Mb SRE near site of CRE 2004 08 28
2005 04 10 174139.98 7.59S 76.23W 134 Km 5.60 Mw SRE
2005 04 11 145406.66 7.28S 77.83W 133 Km 6.20 Mw SRE
2005 04 13 092527.65 33.13S 72.84W 30 Km 5.60 Mw MRE at sea, at Trench
2005 04 16 224116.74 17.38S 69.46W 117 Km 5.80 mb SRE
2005 04 20 104047.25 17.56S 71.28W 28 Km 5.20 mb CRE
or MRE, depth not definitive
Then, there follows several strong earthquakes and the Tarapaca Major earthquake. R. Peralta, June 19 2005.
I had to look at the map in order to get an answer to your question.
1.- The antipode to the Aceh earthquake, is a point just south of the equator, off the coast of Ecuador. There was a swarm which produced 4 strong earthquakes (magnitud > 6.0) in the month after the Aceh quake. Further strong earthquakes have occurred there lately. A major earthquake there is in the forecast below which dates from the year 2002, for which the Aceh quake could be a triggering influence now, hence the swarm.
2.- The antipode to the Tarapaca earthquake, is a point near the coast in Pakistan.
Not really near Sumatra. It is nearer to the 2001 India Big earthquake.
3.- The Solstice relationship you point out is probably of mistic interest only, as dates or solar positions are of no consequence as yet, although many people have observed planetary relations, even navy commodores of old.
4.- As to your special sensory perception, I believe it is possible that it might work as you say. I have an open mind about that. Actually and this means no personal offence or comparison, but yet another extra sensory perception, the chinese and other peoples believe animals can "feel" the oncoming of an earthquake, with unrest, howling, crowing, or laying down attitudes. On the day of the Tarapaca earthquake as I picked up two workers from the field in the valley from Arica, they told me "how roosters made a loud chorus all around the farms in the mid day hours, that is some six hours before the onset of the mainshock and about the same time you felt it. Extrange but very possible.
5.- As to the possibility of a 7.4 Mw earthquake near Lima, Peru in the very near future, yes, thare is a very high probability of that occurring, as the forecast for a landlocked nortrhern Peru is a fact.
The above mentioned forecast follows, much regards
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR BIG AND MAJOR EARTHQUAKES AT THE NAZCA PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE.
Further to the conclusions reached in "Understanding Earthquakes in the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone" sent on 28th August 2002, the "Statistical Analysis Report" and the "Aftershock Analysis Report and Update of the Arequipa earthquake of June 23rd 2001" sent in the years 2003 and 2004 to AGU, USGS and Journal of Seismology, hereby follows this resume on the claims, results and new findings on the theme.
1. It was noticed and noted in the year 2000, that in the four months following Major earthquake 2000 04 23, a 7.0 Mw , 608 Km deep event, there occurred several earthquakes that could be considered as Remote Triggered Seismicity. See Table 1.
2. Triggering influence extended North West and South West from this source. North West reached site of future rupture in 100 days (2000 08 03)and triggered Major Earthquake on 2000 05 12 and Strong Earthquake on 2000 11 29. South West reached as far as the Peru-Chile Trench on 2000 12 20 and RTS earthquake 2000 06 16 triggered three Strong Earthquakes on 2001 01 07, 2001 03 15 and 2001 04 09, in Central Chile.
3. Big Earthquake 2001 06 23 triggered over 270 aftershocks, including Slab, Crust and Mantle response earthquakes. (See Map Nª 1)
4. There seems to be a connection between this rupture on the Coast Line and a location on the eastern rise of the Andes mountains, wich is some 800 Kms away. ( 1998 05 22 and 2001 07 04 CRE`s)
5. Triggering influence of Big Earthquake 2001 06 23 seems to end with RTS on 2003 03 28.
6. Strong earthquake on 2002 04 01 starts a new sequence in Central Chile that turns five strong earthquakes in 80 days. The area is again shaken on 2003 06 20, a 6.80 Mw 33 Km deep earthquake.
7. 2003 07 27, a 6.00 Mw, 345 Km deep is a very deep earthquake north of Increased Activity Deep Area. 2004 03 17 turns a 289 Km deep 6.1 Mw earthquake. Both these depths are uncommon.
8. 2004 05 03 and 2004 06 15 are two strong earthquakes just north of South West RTS limit of 2000 12 20 event. 2004 08 27 and 2004 09 07 are two strong CRE`s on eastern rise of Andes Mountains.
9. 2004 11 12, 2005 03 21 and 2005 03 21 are three strong Extra Deep Earthquakes (EDE`s) wihch could be the source of future Remote Triggered Seismicity.
10. Most likely areas to be triggered are seismic gaps North and South of Big Earthquakes 2001 06 23 and 1995 07 30,(Nazca, Iquique, Tocopilla, Taltal, Chañaral), the areas South of San Antonio- North of Concepcion ( Vichuquén, Cauquenes) and the area South of Puerto Saavedra.
11. The area off the Coast of Ecuador, which is in itself under the triggering influence of Strong EDE ´s of 2002 10 12, 2003 04 27 and Major EDE of 2003 06 20, was affected by a swarm of four strong earthquakes in seven days (Post Big Sumatra Earthquake period) and still shows signs of activity. During this post Big (Sumatra, 2004 12 26) earthquake, two "weird" (uncommon) earthquakes occurred in the Amazon and Matto Grosso area on 2005 02 08 and 2005 03 23. It is common practice to look for areas first affected by Big Earthquakes, therefore due observation will be made of earthquakes following the recent 8.7 Mw Big Earthquake (RTS) of Sumatra on 2005 03 28.
In the above account and Table 1 many earthquakes have been omitted on purpose and although the relation in between the mentioned ones remains, the fact is that most of the Risk Areas signaled in the previous reports have been affcted by some strong activity and the ones that have not, they remain to be seen. Table 2 shows activity moved North and South to date.
RISK FACTORS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT ARE :
- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in space (Historic Seismicity)
- Equidistant distribution of Big and Major Earthquakes in Time (Historic Seismicity)
- Triggering Influence of Big and Major Earthquakes
- Increased Activity Areas at shallow, intermediate and sub-crust depths
- Activity at sub-slab depths (Mantle Response Earthquakes. MRE´s)
- Activity at or near the Liquifaction Zone of the mantle (EDE´s)
- Inlfuence transference cycles to and from the Liquifaction Zone
- Mantle Response Earthquakes (MRE´s)
- Crust Response Earthquakes (CRE´s)
Sent on this day of April 5th 2005.
Rafael Peralta
peraltaquake@hotmail.com
Arica, CHILE
TABLE 1
2000 04 23 092723.32 28.31 S 62.99 W 608 Km 7.00 Mw Extra Deep Earthquake (EDE)
2000 04 23 124854.30 28.39 S 62.95 W 622 Km 4.50 mb Aftershock
2000 04 23 170117.47 28.38 S 62.94 W 609 Km 6.10 Mw Aftershock
2000 04 24 103217.20 17.98 S 70.63 W 55 Km 5.10 mb First to react Slab Response Earthquake (SRE)
2000 04 25 002318.01 13.27 S 74.96 W 107 Km 5.10 mb SRE
2000 04 29 045651.90 20.98 S 67.45 W 181 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 04 29 174246.72 17.60 S 69.55 W 154 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 04 29 195221.62 6.41 S 77.06 W 124 Km 5.70 mb SRE
2000 04 30 053125.87 27.02 S 66.04 W 35 Km 5.10 mb Crust Response Earthquake(CRE)
2000 05 01 001955.62 24.11 S 66.68 W 207 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 05 03 175235.60 17.59 S 69.42 W 148 Km 4.50 mb SRE
2000 05 07 074403.33 17.09 S 64.91 W 36 Km 4.40 mb Crust Response Earthquake(CRE)
2000 05 09 004540.07 25.96 S 69.91 W 57 Km 5.20 mb SRE
2000 05 09 020241.22 18.28 S 73.36 W 33 Km 4.60 mb Nazca Plate side of Trench
2000 05 09 110237.41 12.91 S 76.64 W 59 Km 4.60 mb SRE
2000 05 12 115848.14 27.75 S 70.47 W 75 Km 4.70 mb SRE
2000 05 12 184318.12 23.55 S 66.45 W 225 Km 7.20 Mw Remote Triggered Seismicity(RTS)
2000 06 16 075535.39 33.88 S 70.09 W 120 Km 6.50 Mw Remote Triggered Seismicity(RTS)
2000 07 13 052518.37 16.67 S 71.39 W 37 Km 5.00 mb
2000 08 03 192210.88 17.54 S 71.97 W 33 Km 5.90 Mw Precursory sequence start
2000 08 03 192555.80 17.68 S 71.96 W 33 Km 5.20 mb On future rupture
2000 08 03 222145.69 17.54 S 71.87 W 80 Km 4.80 mb Mantle Response Earthquake
2000 08 11 173114.74 17.72 S 70.20 W 56 Km 5.20 mb On future rupture
2000 08 18 132103.07 19.14 S 70.18 W 69 Km 5.40 mb Across bay from future rupture
2000 08 22 111750.38 17.43 S 71.93 W 79 Km 4.60 mb Precursory sequence end
2000 09 09 111520.01 17.07 S 70.71 W 116 Km 4.70 mb
2000 09 27 050247.97 16.55 S 72.72 W 46 Km 5.10 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake
2000 11 27 105428.05 24.45 S 69.07 W 57 Km 5.00 mb
2000 11 29 102514.14 24.50 S 70.55 W 58 Km 6.40 Mw Mantle Response Earthquake
2000 12 20 112356.93 39.06 S 74.43 W 33 Km 6.40 Mw Southernmost RTS (End)
2001 01 12 104739.52 15.58 S 74.71 W 33 Km 5.40 Ms North of future rupture
2001 01 15 115329.59 15.44 S 74.90 W 33 Km 5.20 Ms North of future rupture
2001 02 22 200620.46 16.70 S 72.97 W 33 Km 5.00 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake
2001 03 22 091740.40 16.44 S 72.42 W 33 Km 4.40 mb Near future rupture
2001 03 22 180154.67 16.06 S 72.07 W 33 Km 4.60 mb Near future rupture
2001 04 04 064528.29 18.97 S 68.19 W 33 Km 4.80 mb CRE
2001 04 17 014211.14 20.76 S 70.47 W 33 Km 5.10 mb
2001 05 05 123740.29 18.00 S 73.71 W 33 Km 4.70 mb Nazca Plate side of Trench
2001 05 05 152657.46 16.79 S 69.50 W 196 Km 4.80 mb
2001 05 08 184152.77 17.41 S 69.00 W 117 Km 4.70 mb
2001 05 18 013143.09 17.38 S 69.78 W 33 Km 4.60 mb CRE
2001 05 22 203811.73 15.44 S 70.62 W 197 Km 4.50 mb
2001 05 24 003909.04 20.14 S 67.11 W 205 Km 5.40 Mw
2001 05 28 064128.51 16.13 S 73.92 W 52 Km 4.90 mb Near Site of Next Big Earthquake
2001 06 15 131601.39 18.26 S 70.44 W 53 Km 4.90 mb South of future rupture
2001 06 23 203314.13 16.26 S 73.64 W 33 Km 8.40 Mw Big Earthquake
2001 06 23 212735.71 17.18 S 72.64 W 33 Km 6.10 mb Strong Earthquake (Aftershock)
2001 06 26 041831.60 17.75 S 71.65 W 33 Km 6.70 Mw Strong Earthquake (Aftershock)
2001 06 29 183551.18 19.52 S 66.25 W 273 Km 6.10 Mw Deep SRE, RTS
2001 07 04 120903.47 17.00 S 65.71 W 33 Km 6.20 Mw CRE, RTS
2001 07 05 135349.73 16.09 S 73.99 W 62 Km 6.60 Mw MRE
2001 07 07 095843.83 17.45 S 72.04 W 33 Km 7.60 Mw Major Earthquake
2001 07 12 071504.94 17.43 S 66.04 W 33 Km 4.70 mb CRE
2001 07 24 050009.05 19.54 S 69.25 W 33 Km 6.40 Mw CRE
2001 08 28 065609.97 21.72 S 70.11 W 65 Km 5.90 mb MRE
2001 10 26 185956.71 14.77 S 70.50 W 212 Km 5.80 Mw Deep SRE
2002 03 28 045621.73 21.66 S 68.33 W 125 Km 6.50 Mw SRE (End of RTS`s)
TABLE 2
2002 03 28 045622.40 21.66S 68.33W 125 Km 6.50 Mw Last RTS from Table 1
2002 04 01 195932.48 29.67S 71.38W 71 Km 6.40 Mw First strong event after a year
2002 04 18 160836.78 27,53S 70.59W 62 Km 6.70 Mw
2002 05 23 155215.28 30.75S 71.20W 52 Km 6.00 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2002 05 28 040422.53 28.94S 66.80W 22 Km 6.00 Mb CRE
2002 06 18 135622.83 30.81S 71.12W 54 Km 6.60 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2002 09 24 035722.28 31.52S 69.20W 119 Km 6.30 Mw SRE
2002 10 12 200911.46 8.30S 71.74W 534 Km 6.90 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 01 07 005451.56 33.76S 70.05W 110 Km 6.00 Mb SRE
2003 04 27 225744.84 8.19S 71.59W 559 Km 6.00 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 06 03 235802.74 17.36S 72.81W 33 Km 6.00 Mw At 2001 06 23 rupture
2003 06 20 061938.91 7.61S 71.72W 558 Km 7.10 Mw EDE at northern sector
2003 06 20 133041.64 30.61S 71.64W 33 Km 6.80 Ms Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2003 07 27 114127.05 20.13S 65.18W 345 Km 6.00 Mw VDE, SRE
2003 08 26 211135.70 17.16S 70.67W 31 Km 5.80 Mb At 2001 06 23 rupture
2003 09 17 213447.17 21.47S 68.32W 127 Km 5.90 Mb At 2002 03 28 location
2003 12 10 122551.54 27.96S 71.32W 33 Km 5.80 Mw At sea from 2002 04 18
2004 01 23 050030.64 23.03S 69.88W 71 Km 5.90 Mw
2004 01 27 160037.91 17.81S 71.05W 57 Km 5.80 Mw At 2001 06 23 rupture
2004 02 04 051844.82 26.13S 63.46W 558 Km 5.80 Mw EDE
2004 03 17 032107.91 21.12S 65.59W 289 Km 6.10 Mw VDE, SRE
2004 03 22 042258.45 22.94S 64.36W 16 Km 5.80 Mw CRE
2004 05 03 043650.04 37.69S 73.41W 21 Km 6.60 Mw At southern sector
2004 06 15 111631.50 38.85S 73.15W 37 Km 6.10 Mw At southern sector
2004 08 27 004354.54 27.42S 70.81W 30 Km 5.90 Mw Near 2002 04 18
2004 08 28 134127.91 34.93S 70.39W 1 Km 6.50 Mw CRE
2004 09 07 115306.11 28.57S 65.84W 22 Km 6.40 Mw CRE
2004 09 28 213218.67 15.69S 74.53W 27 Km 5.80 Mw NW from 2001 06 23 Site
2004 11 12 063616.76 26.70S 63.32W 568 Km 6.10 Mw EDE
2004 12 08 060355.59 30.84S 71.22W 44 Km 5.80 Mw Near 1997 10 15 site (7.6 Mw)
2004 12 18 175722.97 16.20S 73.85W 27 Km 5.80 Mw NW from 2001 06 23 Site
2004 12 26 9.30 Mw GRAN SISMO DE SUMATRA
2005 01 21 134514.05 1.13S 80.83W 10 Km 6.00 Mw Start of swarm at northern sector
2005 01 22 025707.25 22.25S 63.64W 526 Km 5.20Mw EDE
2005 01 24 232324.47 1.39S 80.79W 7 Km 6.10 Mw At northern sector
2005 01 28 092617.79 1.19S 81.20W 10 Km 6.10 Mw At northern sector
2005 01 28 154645.27 1.09S 81.16W 10 Km 6.20 Mw At northern sector
2005 02 08 180422.44 2.22S 63.62W 18 Km 4.40 Mb At Amazon`s uncommon location
2005 03 01 072405.63 31.43S 71.69W 25 Km 5.30 Mb At coast line
2005 03 21 122354.35 24.91S 63.40W 579 Km 6.90 Mw EDE
2005 03 21 124312.51 24.66S 63.45W 569 Km 6.40 Mw EDE
2005 03 13 203859.91 32.59S 71.68W 25 Km 5.30 Mb At Coast Line
2005 03 14 124344.41 28.57S 65.93W 23 Km 5.60 MD CRE
2005 03 19 142330.04 27.78S 71.15W 24 Km 5.00 Mb At sea
2005 03 23 211200.xx 11.60S 56.78W 10 Km 5.10 Mb At Amazon`s uncommon location
2005 03 29 163820.10 33.71S 72.28W 34 Km 5.10 Mb MRE at sea
2005 03 31 163340.74 23.51S 64.53W 35 Km 5.10 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 215052.36 23.27S 64.38W 10 Km 4.90 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 215235.62 22.94S 64.65W 10 Km 5.20 Mb CRE
2005 03 31 222208.54 23.49S 64.14W 10 Km 4.70 mb CRE
2005 04 06 104604.10 35.35S 70.95W 117Km 6.00 Mb SRE near site of CRE 2004 08 28
2005 04 10 174139.98 7.59S 76.23W 134 Km 5.60 Mw SRE
2005 04 11 145406.66 7.28S 77.83W 133 Km 6.20 Mw SRE
2005 04 13 092527.65 33.13S 72.84W 30 Km 5.60 Mw MRE at sea, at Trench
2005 04 16 224116.74 17.38S 69.46W 117 Km 5.80 mb SRE
2005 04 20 104047.25 17.56S 71.28W 28 Km 5.20 mb CRE
or MRE, depth not definitive
Then, there follows several strong earthquakes and the Tarapaca Major earthquake. R. Peralta, June 19 2005.
Rafael,
Yes, not quite antipodal, so I used "anticenter" as a generality. Mostly I was looking at the circular area past the shadow zone where there is actually some overlaps of p-wave vectors having been refracted in the outer core. (146 - 158 deg.) I didn't do the math to see how close the that area the Tarapacan quake was, just looked inside that area. It was the symmetrical proximity combined with the seasonal symmetry that made me ponder. All around the pacific plate is very active, first the Asian side, now the Americas.
The next thing is the volcanic activity. During the 2 weeks prior, of course Colima, Mexico (which is roughly centered between the 2 quakes I mentioned above), and Anatahan, Mariana Islands; and Bagana & Ulawun, Papua New Guinea; and Barren Island, India; and Dukono, Indonesia; and Fuego & Pacaya & Santa Maria', Guatemala; and Galeras, Columbia; and Karymsky & Shiveluch, Russia; and Kilauea, Hawaii; and Reventador, Equador; Sakura-Hima & Suwanose-Jima, Japan; and Soufriere Hills, W. Indies; and St. Helens, Washington ALL reported new/increased/or peak activity. The ring of fire is HOT.
Should these be noted as stage II precursor (dilatency) / ground uplift? I think that is partially the cause, along with the p-wave velocity and electrical resistivity drops, that cause my sensations. Interestingly, I could feel the opposite spin (from vertigo/ear pressure imbalance) when I was down there!
I think around June 22-24, we will see some larger volcanic activity (definately St. Helens), including some "green" codes moving to "yellow" (Long Valley Caldera), and some yellows moving to orange. What information do you have on Cerro Hudson and Quizapu' in Chile?
TRoc
Yes, not quite antipodal, so I used "anticenter" as a generality. Mostly I was looking at the circular area past the shadow zone where there is actually some overlaps of p-wave vectors having been refracted in the outer core. (146 - 158 deg.) I didn't do the math to see how close the that area the Tarapacan quake was, just looked inside that area. It was the symmetrical proximity combined with the seasonal symmetry that made me ponder. All around the pacific plate is very active, first the Asian side, now the Americas.
The next thing is the volcanic activity. During the 2 weeks prior, of course Colima, Mexico (which is roughly centered between the 2 quakes I mentioned above), and Anatahan, Mariana Islands; and Bagana & Ulawun, Papua New Guinea; and Barren Island, India; and Dukono, Indonesia; and Fuego & Pacaya & Santa Maria', Guatemala; and Galeras, Columbia; and Karymsky & Shiveluch, Russia; and Kilauea, Hawaii; and Reventador, Equador; Sakura-Hima & Suwanose-Jima, Japan; and Soufriere Hills, W. Indies; and St. Helens, Washington ALL reported new/increased/or peak activity. The ring of fire is HOT.
Should these be noted as stage II precursor (dilatency) / ground uplift? I think that is partially the cause, along with the p-wave velocity and electrical resistivity drops, that cause my sensations. Interestingly, I could feel the opposite spin (from vertigo/ear pressure imbalance) when I was down there!I think around June 22-24, we will see some larger volcanic activity (definately St. Helens), including some "green" codes moving to "yellow" (Long Valley Caldera), and some yellows moving to orange. What information do you have on Cerro Hudson and Quizapu' in Chile?
TRoc
THANKS GUYS!!!! I live in the shadow of Mt St Helens!
I do agree with you though, and was actually talking about this recently. With all the activity in the Pacific Rim plate, the eastern portion (the Americas) I also believe will see more earthquake and volcanic activity over the next few years (or decade). The plate seems to have been moving more on the western side of the plate than the eastern side, and needs to "equalize" or reduce stress or however you want to look at it.
I also recently saw a film that talked about a scientist who is getting really good at predicting earthquakes in Turkey. I am sorry, I don't remember his name, but I wonder if you have researched his work?
Good luck to you in your predictions, science is actually getting to the point where predictions can be made without the "predictor" being called a lunatic... We need people like you studying the past so that the future predictions can save lives.
(BTW, Mt St Helens is beautiful today, without even a puff of steam... calm before the storm? Or is it really not her turn?)
--Ashless in Seattle
I do agree with you though, and was actually talking about this recently. With all the activity in the Pacific Rim plate, the eastern portion (the Americas) I also believe will see more earthquake and volcanic activity over the next few years (or decade). The plate seems to have been moving more on the western side of the plate than the eastern side, and needs to "equalize" or reduce stress or however you want to look at it.
I also recently saw a film that talked about a scientist who is getting really good at predicting earthquakes in Turkey. I am sorry, I don't remember his name, but I wonder if you have researched his work?
Good luck to you in your predictions, science is actually getting to the point where predictions can be made without the "predictor" being called a lunatic... We need people like you studying the past so that the future predictions can save lives.
(BTW, Mt St Helens is beautiful today, without even a puff of steam... calm before the storm? Or is it really not her turn?)
--Ashless in Seattle
They, & their kind,
I wouldn't worry too much if you haven't had problems with the ongoing activity there. (and remember, I am just an amature; and as you said, predictions are still for non-paid & lunatics).
>although Anatahen went off to a "peak" height last night<
As for the incoming "stuff" that I believe is connected and mentioned before. I've gathered it all up where it is as convenient as possible here. These are just small graphs, and should load quickly.
NOAA
circa 6-13-05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/...13_electron.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/goeshp/20050613_goeshp.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20050613_proton.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20050613_xray.gif
circa 6-17-05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/...17_electron.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/goeshp/20050617_goeshp.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20050613_proton.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20050617_xray.gif
USGS
Long valley, CA.
1. http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_cw3.html
2. http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_lkt.html
combined: http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_lkt_cw3.html
TRoc
I wouldn't worry too much if you haven't had problems with the ongoing activity there. (and remember, I am just an amature; and as you said, predictions are still for non-paid & lunatics).
>although Anatahen went off to a "peak" height last night<
As for the incoming "stuff" that I believe is connected and mentioned before. I've gathered it all up where it is as convenient as possible here. These are just small graphs, and should load quickly.
NOAA
circa 6-13-05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/...13_electron.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/goeshp/20050613_goeshp.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20050613_proton.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20050613_xray.gif
circa 6-17-05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/...17_electron.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/goeshp/20050617_goeshp.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/proton/20050613_proton.gif
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20050617_xray.gif
USGS
Long valley, CA.
1. http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_cw3.html
2. http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_lkt.html
combined: http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/Last15days_lkt_cw3.html
TRoc
Not being in the field, I still have an opinion that probably is easy to shoot down. Here it goes, the plates are just that, plates, and if one would move a plate on a table, the left side of the plate would move with the right side. Isn't it logical to expect an major earthquake directly opposite of the Kuril Island earthquake. Of course the plate may be broken and only the broken part will move. Sorry to be so simplistic <_<
Exactly. What would be the speed for this disturbance to cross Pacific? And in which place on US West coast will it strike?
Hi, all
Guest_linda: you are right about the plate analogy. In the case of tectonic plates however, analisys shows me that an earthquake at the subduction contact line (and at crust depth) between plates is a breakage of material there, and usually extends along the nearby subducting area (however in the long run, hundreds of years the whole contact line will have to show earthquakes, unless a new tectonic feature arises) As the plate involved in this Kuril Islands Big earthquake case, is the northern section of the Pacific plate bear in mind that this plate is being formed, born, at the Mid Pacific Ridge, which is exactly where a new strong earthquake has taken place today.
Ivar: Parallel energy transfers have been noticed (and noted) to occurr in hours, days, weeks, sometimes seconds. As it is not so much the speed of travel of the disturbance, but the moment the remotely triggered earthquakes takes place, what is finally sensed/registered, the calculation remains uncertain.
It has also been noted the possibility that Extra Deep Earthquakes, in the 550-700 range, are also probable cause of subsequent earthquakes updip plate, as the liquifaction of material at the end-place of the subducting plate "makes room" for the plate to "move" (further down). This in turn will cause earthquakes by friction/breakage of material at the subduction contact line.
Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone !
Guest_linda: you are right about the plate analogy. In the case of tectonic plates however, analisys shows me that an earthquake at the subduction contact line (and at crust depth) between plates is a breakage of material there, and usually extends along the nearby subducting area (however in the long run, hundreds of years the whole contact line will have to show earthquakes, unless a new tectonic feature arises) As the plate involved in this Kuril Islands Big earthquake case, is the northern section of the Pacific plate bear in mind that this plate is being formed, born, at the Mid Pacific Ridge, which is exactly where a new strong earthquake has taken place today.
Ivar: Parallel energy transfers have been noticed (and noted) to occurr in hours, days, weeks, sometimes seconds. As it is not so much the speed of travel of the disturbance, but the moment the remotely triggered earthquakes takes place, what is finally sensed/registered, the calculation remains uncertain.
It has also been noted the possibility that Extra Deep Earthquakes, in the 550-700 range, are also probable cause of subsequent earthquakes updip plate, as the liquifaction of material at the end-place of the subducting plate "makes room" for the plate to "move" (further down). This in turn will cause earthquakes by friction/breakage of material at the subduction contact line.
Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone !
HOLA Rafael !
I'm very glad to see you back; I haven't been doing much in this area since you've been "away".
I am less than 6 months from being finished with my work in the US, and will be returning to the "Nazca Plate Subduction Zone " myself. Perhaps we can meet someday?
For Linda, and Ivars, and everyone else reading: a review of my opinion.
This holds true in Physics (QM) as well as Seismology. We traditionally inspect systems by narrowing down our focus. A problem arises, however, when "all the data" is in, and we keep the "blinders" on our explanation. This means that we CONTINUE to view the studied phenomena in ISOLATION, and we explain, and teach it that way too. This is finally catching up to us. We must include SYSTEMIC analysis to complete the picture.
The plates are not in isolation, and neither is the planet itself. Nothing I say disagrees with Rafael's work; they COMPLEMENT each other. He is breaking new ground, and is one of the first that I've seen to view the plates as a connected whole, rather than isolated "islands".
Ivar, please don't take offense, but saying that there will be an earthquake on the west coast of the US in the next few months is NOT a predictive statement. It is entirely probabilistic: of course one will happen. You say "big one", yet leave it undefined.
If you have determined a way to predict the SIZE, or magnitude of a quake, then you DO have something. Science is in the service of the public: we are here to answer questions. If you go back and read through this thread, you will see clearly that I have a method to predict both the location, and and time of an earthquake. I was able to predict batches of quakes at a time, with a great deal of accuracy. However, the missing part, the magnitude, remains elusive.
It is my opinion that the other 2 are useless without it. We can not issue WARNINGS without knowing WHAT we are warning against. Quakes happen every day, all around the World. It is only when they cause damage to life or property that they are a problem. Magnitude is what dictates these losses.
With all that being said, I will post here what I feel to be the TRIGGER to Rafael's CHARGE. The charge is like an explosive: it needs a method to detonate.
The Earth is in equilibrium in terms of energy. I postulate that the energy from an earthquake is in excess of this equilibrium. This energy then, must come from outside of this isolated system, and then be injected into the Earth. The release of this new, additional energy is in the form(s) of wave we call an earthquake. This is Intra-Solar System Conservation of Energy.
Isolating JUST the energy from the Sun that is outside its' normal parameter (equilibrium) you get a PARTIAL picture:
And further into the wavelengths we are used to seeing:
[images taken from GOES x-ray Solar Imager, NGDC / NOAA]
NOV 13, 2006 ~20:00UTC
Some basic calculations will give you the arrival time of this burst of energy, and some calculations of the cross sections of the flare or hole, and of the Earth (Resonance Interaction Zone) will tell you where this energy will hit.
This resonance, or transfer of energy, is predictable. The reaction, or ultimate magnitude of the energy released, is based on several other factors that I would estimate to be: Thermal storage of energy in the Earth, Geological makeup (fault lines, crystalline structure, water/liquid content), and Imbalance of energy created or "lingering" from the last significant release (quake).
These terms are beyond our current ability to collect data on a global scale, which I believe will be necessary to complete an accurate earthquake predicting theory that includes magnitude.
Regards,
T.Roc
I'm very glad to see you back; I haven't been doing much in this area since you've been "away".
I am less than 6 months from being finished with my work in the US, and will be returning to the "Nazca Plate Subduction Zone " myself. Perhaps we can meet someday?
For Linda, and Ivars, and everyone else reading: a review of my opinion.
This holds true in Physics (QM) as well as Seismology. We traditionally inspect systems by narrowing down our focus. A problem arises, however, when "all the data" is in, and we keep the "blinders" on our explanation. This means that we CONTINUE to view the studied phenomena in ISOLATION, and we explain, and teach it that way too. This is finally catching up to us. We must include SYSTEMIC analysis to complete the picture.
The plates are not in isolation, and neither is the planet itself. Nothing I say disagrees with Rafael's work; they COMPLEMENT each other. He is breaking new ground, and is one of the first that I've seen to view the plates as a connected whole, rather than isolated "islands".
Ivar, please don't take offense, but saying that there will be an earthquake on the west coast of the US in the next few months is NOT a predictive statement. It is entirely probabilistic: of course one will happen. You say "big one", yet leave it undefined.
If you have determined a way to predict the SIZE, or magnitude of a quake, then you DO have something. Science is in the service of the public: we are here to answer questions. If you go back and read through this thread, you will see clearly that I have a method to predict both the location, and and time of an earthquake. I was able to predict batches of quakes at a time, with a great deal of accuracy. However, the missing part, the magnitude, remains elusive.
It is my opinion that the other 2 are useless without it. We can not issue WARNINGS without knowing WHAT we are warning against. Quakes happen every day, all around the World. It is only when they cause damage to life or property that they are a problem. Magnitude is what dictates these losses.
With all that being said, I will post here what I feel to be the TRIGGER to Rafael's CHARGE. The charge is like an explosive: it needs a method to detonate.
The Earth is in equilibrium in terms of energy. I postulate that the energy from an earthquake is in excess of this equilibrium. This energy then, must come from outside of this isolated system, and then be injected into the Earth. The release of this new, additional energy is in the form(s) of wave we call an earthquake. This is Intra-Solar System Conservation of Energy.
Isolating JUST the energy from the Sun that is outside its' normal parameter (equilibrium) you get a PARTIAL picture:
And further into the wavelengths we are used to seeing:
[images taken from GOES x-ray Solar Imager, NGDC / NOAA]
NOV 13, 2006 ~20:00UTC
Some basic calculations will give you the arrival time of this burst of energy, and some calculations of the cross sections of the flare or hole, and of the Earth (Resonance Interaction Zone) will tell you where this energy will hit.
This resonance, or transfer of energy, is predictable. The reaction, or ultimate magnitude of the energy released, is based on several other factors that I would estimate to be: Thermal storage of energy in the Earth, Geological makeup (fault lines, crystalline structure, water/liquid content), and Imbalance of energy created or "lingering" from the last significant release (quake).
These terms are beyond our current ability to collect data on a global scale, which I believe will be necessary to complete an accurate earthquake predicting theory that includes magnitude.
Regards,
T.Roc
All,
Progress!
Turbulence in Space
Reported by: Narita et al., Physical Review Letters, 10 November 2006
ciao!
T.Roc
Progress!
Turbulence in Space
Reported by: Narita et al., Physical Review Letters, 10 November 2006
ciao!
T.Roc
QUOTE
I postulate that the energy from an earthquake is in excess of this equilibrium. This energy then, must come from outside of this isolated system, and then be injected into the Earth.
This is what happens, almost exactly. As You say , "Energy" is stored for some time and released via inherent geometric structures of rotating Earth at the time when synchronizing trigger pulse starts the avalanche type release. I would rather call it MASS not energy, though.
When I speak about Earthquake in West USA I mean very big. I do not predict small earthquakes because I am not a sequential computer-I have no idea where they will happen. I am doing it intuitively, so I have to concentrate on one big thing. I know without proofs it sounds quite stupid but I was hoping someone else has more scientific proofs- but no one has really provided any ideas better than Mr. Sornette.
I hope I will be able to narrow down place, time, and magnitude + some other effects of THE EARTHQUAKE before it happens. Every day brings something new, but not yet definite enough.
As I said in one post, Sanfrancisco and area south of it as well as inland Sacramento valley, cost downwards Los Angeles will suffer from both Earthquake and flooding.North of SanFrancisco may only get severe Earthquake. This is based on geometric underlying structure of Earth Crust which I think is true, but is still only in my head, and not exact yet.
KURIL ISLANDS BIG EARTHQUAKE UPDATE
It has now been published that the Big Earthquake last 15th November was actually TWO Big earthquakes an 8.3 Mw followed by an 8.4 Mw magnitude some 26 minutes later.
FILE CREATED: Mon Nov 27 07:55:53 2006
Circle Search Earthquakes= 8
Circle Center Point Latitude: 46.000N Longitude: 156.000E
Radius: 500.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Magnitude Range: 6.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Preliminary Data Only
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 111416.69 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV KURIL 1
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112507.98 47.15 152.69 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 284
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112838.65 46.12 154.11 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 147
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112922.77 46.38 154.43 10 6.20 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 113458.32 46.67 155.31 10 6.50 mb GS .. . ....... 91
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 114055.22 46.50 154.74 10 8.40 Ms GS KURIL 2
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 212223.46 47.34 154.10 22 6.20 MwGS .. M ....... 208
PDE-Q 2006 11 16 062020.80 46.35 154.51 9 6.10 mb GS .. M ....... 121
That is quite a BIG release of mass-energy at both sides of a point on the northern Pacific Subduction Zone.
Following on the theme of earthquakes triggering, the second of these two B.E.'s was most probably triggered by the first one. We may be in the (right) moment for getting together all "prediction" theories, such as Troc's, intuition, earthquakes clouds, etc.
Put shortly, in my opinion Big earthquakes take place when the accumulated "stress/compression/mass/energy" on one point, gets beyond the permisible limit. At that point, earthly matter is broken and desintegrated, "transformed", with the subconsequent release of "energy" in the form of movement, shaking, rumbling and shattering. The triggering force, once this point gets near or beyond the permisible limit, may well be solar release of extra "energy", a nearby or far away earthquake, even a drilling blast, or if weget poetic, the drop of a feather. Now, in the case of eartquakes remotely triggering other earthquakes, which is what I study and analyse, I propose that "energy/mass" is transmitted via structural tectonic features such as plates and/or ridges, trenches. Huge faults if you like. Thus, an Extra Deep Earthquake (EDE) at the bottom end of the Nazca Plate, some 700 Kms deep, where it "disappears" or melts into the mantle material transforms the brittle material and releases energy. This released energy travels up the subducting plate and on the way encounters points on the brink of its permisible limits, some react and a new earthquakes takes place up-plate, then, as observed, a few days or months later, another earthquake will take place sort of showing the path the energy has traveled. The portion of the plate has then been shaken, room has been made at the bottom (by melting) for the plate to move further down. Eventually, it will move and for this to take place it will need to de-couple itself at some area. This area will in the near future be the rupture area of the next B.E.
In other cases, a B.E. (such as Sumatra's) taking place nearby a trench, I propose that the triggering factor will travel along these ridges/trenches as far as it will, eventually going around the globe (along this tectonic plates border/limits) on the way affecting points which are near the limit. Sumatra itself may have been triggered by a B.E. taken place a few days before south a New Zealand. Once the Big Sumatra Earthquake took place on Dec 26th 2004, I expected energy to travel along these borders in three directions: North-East along the philipines-Japan-Aleutian trenches all the way to California, South-West along the Tonga-Antartic-Nazca trenches and West along the Himalayan- Anatolian trenches. It did go that way with Major Earthquakes taking place in Tarapaca (Chile) California, then Pakistan and all. Those places that were affected but did not realeased, only accumulated more "stress/compression" and are now begining to release. It is only matter of plotting and seeing.
FILE CREATED: Mon Nov 27 08:33:29 2006
Global Search Earthquakes= 32
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2004 - 2006 Month: 10/Day: 01 Month: 11/Day: 25
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE 2004 10 09 212653.69 11.42 -86.67 35 7.00 Ms GS 4FFM .......
PDE 2004 11 11 212641.15 -8.15 124.87 10 7.50 MwHRV 8CFM ......S
PDE 2004 11 15 090656.56 4.70 -77.51 15 7.20 MwGS .CFM ......V
PDE 2004 11 22 202623.90 -46.68 164.72 10 7.10 Ms GS NEW ZEALAND
PDE 2004 11 26 022503.31 -3.61 135.40 10 7.20 Ms GS .C M .......
PDE 2004 11 28 183214.13 43.01 145.12 39 7.00 MwGS JAPAN
PDE 2004 12 23 145904.41 -49.31 161.35 10 8.10 MwHRV NEW ZEALAND
PDE 2004 12 26 005853.45 3.30 95.98 30 9.00 MwHRV SUMATRA 1
PDE 2004 12 26 042129.81 6.91 92.96 39 7.50 Ms GS .. M .......
PDE 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwHRV Going west (EDE)
PDE 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS south west
PDE 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.60 MwHRV SUMATRA 2
PDE 2005 06 13 224433.90 -19.99 -69.20 115 7.80 MwGS TARAPACA
PDE 2005 06 15 025054.19 41.29 -125.95 16 7.20 MwHRV CALIFORNIA
PDE 2005 07 24 154206.21 7.92 92.19 16 7.50 Ms GS 5DFM .......
PDE 2005 08 16 024628.40 38.28 142.04 36 7.20 MwHRV 8CFM .T....S
PDE 2005 09 09 072643.73 -4.54 153.47 90 7.60 MwHRV .FFM .......
PDE 2005 09 26 015537.67 -5.68 -76.40 115 7.50 MwGS 6CFM .......
PDE-W 2005 10 08 035040.80 34.54 73.59 26 7.70 Ms GS PAKISTAN
PDE-W 2005 11 14 213851.42 38.11 144.90 11 7.00 MwHRV 4F M .T.....
PDE-W 2005 12 05 121956.62 -6.22 29.83 22 7.20 Ms GS AFRICA
PDE-W 2006 01 02 061049.23 -60.93 -21.58 10 7.40 MwHRV .. M .......
PDE-W 2006 01 02 221340.49 -19.93 -178.18 582 7.20 MwHRV .F M .......
PDE-W 2006 01 27 165853.67 -5.47 128.13 397 7.60 MwHRV 5F M .......
PDE-W 2006 02 22 221907.80 -21.32 33.58 11 7.50 Ms GS AFRICA
PDE-W 2006 04 20 232502.15 60.95 167.09 22 7.60 Ms GS KORYAKIA RUSIA
PDE-W 2006 05 03 152640.29 -20.19 -174.12 55 7.90 MwGS TONGA
PDE-W 2006 05 16 103923.34 -31.78 -179.31 151 7.40 MwGS TONGA
PDE-W 2006 07 17 081928.75 -9.25 107.41 34 7.70 MwHRV .C M .T.....
PDE-W 2006 08 20 034147.53 -61.03 -34.37 10 7.00 MwGS .. M .......
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 111416.69 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV KURIL I. 1
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 114055.22 46.50 154.74 10 8.40 Ms GS KURIL I. 2
Happy plotting and much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone!
It has now been published that the Big Earthquake last 15th November was actually TWO Big earthquakes an 8.3 Mw followed by an 8.4 Mw magnitude some 26 minutes later.
FILE CREATED: Mon Nov 27 07:55:53 2006
Circle Search Earthquakes= 8
Circle Center Point Latitude: 46.000N Longitude: 156.000E
Radius: 500.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Magnitude Range: 6.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Preliminary Data Only
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 111416.69 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV KURIL 1
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112507.98 47.15 152.69 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 284
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112838.65 46.12 154.11 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 147
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 112922.77 46.38 154.43 10 6.20 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 113458.32 46.67 155.31 10 6.50 mb GS .. . ....... 91
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 114055.22 46.50 154.74 10 8.40 Ms GS KURIL 2
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 212223.46 47.34 154.10 22 6.20 MwGS .. M ....... 208
PDE-Q 2006 11 16 062020.80 46.35 154.51 9 6.10 mb GS .. M ....... 121
That is quite a BIG release of mass-energy at both sides of a point on the northern Pacific Subduction Zone.
Following on the theme of earthquakes triggering, the second of these two B.E.'s was most probably triggered by the first one. We may be in the (right) moment for getting together all "prediction" theories, such as Troc's, intuition, earthquakes clouds, etc.
Put shortly, in my opinion Big earthquakes take place when the accumulated "stress/compression/mass/energy" on one point, gets beyond the permisible limit. At that point, earthly matter is broken and desintegrated, "transformed", with the subconsequent release of "energy" in the form of movement, shaking, rumbling and shattering. The triggering force, once this point gets near or beyond the permisible limit, may well be solar release of extra "energy", a nearby or far away earthquake, even a drilling blast, or if weget poetic, the drop of a feather. Now, in the case of eartquakes remotely triggering other earthquakes, which is what I study and analyse, I propose that "energy/mass" is transmitted via structural tectonic features such as plates and/or ridges, trenches. Huge faults if you like. Thus, an Extra Deep Earthquake (EDE) at the bottom end of the Nazca Plate, some 700 Kms deep, where it "disappears" or melts into the mantle material transforms the brittle material and releases energy. This released energy travels up the subducting plate and on the way encounters points on the brink of its permisible limits, some react and a new earthquakes takes place up-plate, then, as observed, a few days or months later, another earthquake will take place sort of showing the path the energy has traveled. The portion of the plate has then been shaken, room has been made at the bottom (by melting) for the plate to move further down. Eventually, it will move and for this to take place it will need to de-couple itself at some area. This area will in the near future be the rupture area of the next B.E.
In other cases, a B.E. (such as Sumatra's) taking place nearby a trench, I propose that the triggering factor will travel along these ridges/trenches as far as it will, eventually going around the globe (along this tectonic plates border/limits) on the way affecting points which are near the limit. Sumatra itself may have been triggered by a B.E. taken place a few days before south a New Zealand. Once the Big Sumatra Earthquake took place on Dec 26th 2004, I expected energy to travel along these borders in three directions: North-East along the philipines-Japan-Aleutian trenches all the way to California, South-West along the Tonga-Antartic-Nazca trenches and West along the Himalayan- Anatolian trenches. It did go that way with Major Earthquakes taking place in Tarapaca (Chile) California, then Pakistan and all. Those places that were affected but did not realeased, only accumulated more "stress/compression" and are now begining to release. It is only matter of plotting and seeing.
FILE CREATED: Mon Nov 27 08:33:29 2006
Global Search Earthquakes= 32
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2004 - 2006 Month: 10/Day: 01 Month: 11/Day: 25
Magnitude Range: 7.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE 2004 10 09 212653.69 11.42 -86.67 35 7.00 Ms GS 4FFM .......
PDE 2004 11 11 212641.15 -8.15 124.87 10 7.50 MwHRV 8CFM ......S
PDE 2004 11 15 090656.56 4.70 -77.51 15 7.20 MwGS .CFM ......V
PDE 2004 11 22 202623.90 -46.68 164.72 10 7.10 Ms GS NEW ZEALAND
PDE 2004 11 26 022503.31 -3.61 135.40 10 7.20 Ms GS .C M .......
PDE 2004 11 28 183214.13 43.01 145.12 39 7.00 MwGS JAPAN
PDE 2004 12 23 145904.41 -49.31 161.35 10 8.10 MwHRV NEW ZEALAND
PDE 2004 12 26 005853.45 3.30 95.98 30 9.00 MwHRV SUMATRA 1
PDE 2004 12 26 042129.81 6.91 92.96 39 7.50 Ms GS .. M .......
PDE 2005 02 05 122318.94 5.29 123.34 525 7.10 MwHRV Going west (EDE)
PDE 2005 03 02 104212.23 -6.53 129.93 201 7.10 MwGS south west
PDE 2005 03 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11 30 8.60 MwHRV SUMATRA 2
PDE 2005 06 13 224433.90 -19.99 -69.20 115 7.80 MwGS TARAPACA
PDE 2005 06 15 025054.19 41.29 -125.95 16 7.20 MwHRV CALIFORNIA
PDE 2005 07 24 154206.21 7.92 92.19 16 7.50 Ms GS 5DFM .......
PDE 2005 08 16 024628.40 38.28 142.04 36 7.20 MwHRV 8CFM .T....S
PDE 2005 09 09 072643.73 -4.54 153.47 90 7.60 MwHRV .FFM .......
PDE 2005 09 26 015537.67 -5.68 -76.40 115 7.50 MwGS 6CFM .......
PDE-W 2005 10 08 035040.80 34.54 73.59 26 7.70 Ms GS PAKISTAN
PDE-W 2005 11 14 213851.42 38.11 144.90 11 7.00 MwHRV 4F M .T.....
PDE-W 2005 12 05 121956.62 -6.22 29.83 22 7.20 Ms GS AFRICA
PDE-W 2006 01 02 061049.23 -60.93 -21.58 10 7.40 MwHRV .. M .......
PDE-W 2006 01 02 221340.49 -19.93 -178.18 582 7.20 MwHRV .F M .......
PDE-W 2006 01 27 165853.67 -5.47 128.13 397 7.60 MwHRV 5F M .......
PDE-W 2006 02 22 221907.80 -21.32 33.58 11 7.50 Ms GS AFRICA
PDE-W 2006 04 20 232502.15 60.95 167.09 22 7.60 Ms GS KORYAKIA RUSIA
PDE-W 2006 05 03 152640.29 -20.19 -174.12 55 7.90 MwGS TONGA
PDE-W 2006 05 16 103923.34 -31.78 -179.31 151 7.40 MwGS TONGA
PDE-W 2006 07 17 081928.75 -9.25 107.41 34 7.70 MwHRV .C M .T.....
PDE-W 2006 08 20 034147.53 -61.03 -34.37 10 7.00 MwGS .. M .......
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 111416.69 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV KURIL I. 1
PDE-Q 2006 11 15 114055.22 46.50 154.74 10 8.40 Ms GS KURIL I. 2
Happy plotting and much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone!
(QUOTE)"It has now been published that the Big Earthquake last 15th November was actually TWO Big earthquakes an 8.3 Mw followed by an 8.4 Mw magnitude some 26 minutes later."
Please disregard the above quoted update as it has now been corrected to "6.40" magnitude for the Kuril 2 Earthquake in the text
Regards,
Rafael
Please disregard the above quoted update as it has now been corrected to "6.40" magnitude for the Kuril 2 Earthquake in the text
Regards,
Rafael
Location : inside San Francisco-Las Angeles-Palmsprings triangle. California North of Sanfracisco will remain relatively untouched.
Magnitude: > 8
First guess about the exact time: December 10th, 2006, 6:50-7:30 A.m.
Followed by bigger Earthquake with flooding into Sacramento valley/Los Angeles coast and land height changes around Christmas which is possible to avoid/smooth.
These are intuitive predictions, based on overall information from many sources I tried to mention in my previous posts. Prediction is not calculated on the computer, but in my head.
If there will be more information available( and therefore I look forward to feedback) , it may be possible to improve forecast.
This is my first and only one prediction about Earthquakes. If I miss by a huge margin, I will stop doing this for a while.
Magnitude: > 8
First guess about the exact time: December 10th, 2006, 6:50-7:30 A.m.
Followed by bigger Earthquake with flooding into Sacramento valley/Los Angeles coast and land height changes around Christmas which is possible to avoid/smooth.
These are intuitive predictions, based on overall information from many sources I tried to mention in my previous posts. Prediction is not calculated on the computer, but in my head.
If there will be more information available( and therefore I look forward to feedback) , it may be possible to improve forecast.
This is my first and only one prediction about Earthquakes. If I miss by a huge margin, I will stop doing this for a while.
QUOTE (Ivars+Dec 2 2006, 12:11 PM)
This is my first and only one prediction about Earthquakes.
Be careful with similar predictions. What if it fulfills? A big temptation would be in front of you. Intuition could be strong but gift of prophecy is very rare.
With all good will.
Be careful with similar predictions. What if it fulfills? A big temptation would be in front of you. Intuition could be strong but gift of prophecy is very rare.
With all good will.
Let us check this. Something concrete has to be shown.
It is also good to know the limits of intuition.
I tried my best-let us see how good it is.
It is also good to know the limits of intuition.
I tried my best-let us see how good it is.
Well done Ivars, it takes courage and self confidence to predict such a (horrendous?) event. I will encourage your post with this link to a news published today at Physorg.
http://www.physorg.com/news84206626.html
It says there that northern California is more prone to host a major event than Southern California... Humm.
It has also been noted that "calm comes before the storm" or my words, "periods of increased activity are preceded by periods of null or little activity" OK, after a 20 month period of no Big Earthquakes we now have an increased activity world wide, and as you note, some are taking place in California.
Regards to all
http://www.physorg.com/news84206626.html
It says there that northern California is more prone to host a major event than Southern California... Humm.
It has also been noted that "calm comes before the storm" or my words, "periods of increased activity are preceded by periods of null or little activity" OK, after a 20 month period of no Big Earthquakes we now have an increased activity world wide, and as you note, some are taking place in California.
Regards to all
I can only wait now.. I hope it does not happen. Both dates has astrological reasoning, trigger effect behind them, so...
If I understand right, North and South California meet at Golden Gate bridge-Sanfrancisco.
The fact there is marked difference between small Earthquake behaviour in North and South is not good either. Imbalance is growing.
If event happens on North/South Bondary ( Sanfrancisco or Golden Gate Bridge area) , tremors will affect South California more due to extensive fault structure there.
If I understand right, North and South California meet at Golden Gate bridge-Sanfrancisco.
The fact there is marked difference between small Earthquake behaviour in North and South is not good either. Imbalance is growing.
If event happens on North/South Bondary ( Sanfrancisco or Golden Gate Bridge area) , tremors will affect South California more due to extensive fault structure there.
Indeed a great work , it is being suggested to look into the Sun-earth connection correlation to forecast the earthquake. The weblinks are given below:
www.aip.de/thinkshop/abstract_list.html
www.the-eggs.org/articles.php?id=82 - 41k
www.the-electric-universe.info/Scripts/EarthquakPredictionFlier.pdf
tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/grsg/messages/1?viscount=100 - 47k
www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/9067644501 - 46k
www.iiap.res.in/ihy/participants.html
aleph.library.tudelft.nl/F?func=find-c&ccl_term=wcl=SLF?%20and%20(wyr=199*%20or%20200*)
Sincerely
Dr.Saumitra Mukherjee
Associate Professor
School of Environmental Sciences
Jawaharlal Nehru University
New Delhi-110067
INDIA
www.aip.de/thinkshop/abstract_list.html
www.the-eggs.org/articles.php?id=82 - 41k
www.the-electric-universe.info/Scripts/EarthquakPredictionFlier.pdf
tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/grsg/messages/1?viscount=100 - 47k
www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/9067644501 - 46k
www.iiap.res.in/ihy/participants.html
aleph.library.tudelft.nl/F?func=find-c&ccl_term=wcl=SLF?%20and%20(wyr=199*%20or%20200*)
Sincerely
Dr.Saumitra Mukherjee
Associate Professor
School of Environmental Sciences
Jawaharlal Nehru University
New Delhi-110067
INDIA
Hi Rafael, Ivars, Turya, saumitra, et al ..
Science can never leave intuition out of theory development; just because we still know next to nothing about consciousness, doesn't negate the historical facts of intuitive "flashes, visions, or inspir-ations" leading to MOST of mankind's greatest discoveries.
It is very hard to condition one self to discern the different levels of thought that are in continual "occurrence" inside the mind. There is a very fine line between our hopes & fears, and genuine "higher" knowledge.
The internet is a new and different "laboratory" for these things. A person can easily post their ideas, and have others check for validity. Predictions can be followed, and verified by others, in a cyber-peer review process.
I will check the Solar conditions over the next few days (Dec. 5 to 7) for "precursor" conditions, and report on Ivars "gut" prediction.
Also, sorry Ivar (and saumitra) : I gave a link in my last post that was wrong. My Solar Energy fluctuation based earthquake predictions are in another thread.
R. Peralta's other EarthQuake Thread, w/ my predictions starting around here
Saumitra, thanks for the links. I see your book is quite similar in theory. Nice to have you in the conversation!
regards,
T.Roc
Science can never leave intuition out of theory development; just because we still know next to nothing about consciousness, doesn't negate the historical facts of intuitive "flashes, visions, or inspir-ations" leading to MOST of mankind's greatest discoveries.
It is very hard to condition one self to discern the different levels of thought that are in continual "occurrence" inside the mind. There is a very fine line between our hopes & fears, and genuine "higher" knowledge.
The internet is a new and different "laboratory" for these things. A person can easily post their ideas, and have others check for validity. Predictions can be followed, and verified by others, in a cyber-peer review process.
I will check the Solar conditions over the next few days (Dec. 5 to 7) for "precursor" conditions, and report on Ivars "gut" prediction.
Also, sorry Ivar (and saumitra) : I gave a link in my last post that was wrong. My Solar Energy fluctuation based earthquake predictions are in another thread.
R. Peralta's other EarthQuake Thread, w/ my predictions starting around here
Saumitra, thanks for the links. I see your book is quite similar in theory. Nice to have you in the conversation!
regards,
T.Roc
Some more intuitive ideas. I am really pleasantly surprised with TRoc comments. Not the usual attitude You usually get when wandering into "specialists" territory...
I think Tectonic plates and faults are relatively shallow structures.
Beneath them other patterns exist which do not coincide with them; I
think San Andreas Fault is situated approximately on top and parallel to
rotation axis of such a structure- a plate. The structure itself is a
straight angle rectangle plate in Mercator projection, positioned in a
45 degree angle to the grid. One of its borders run under Golden Gate
bridge, another approximately between Palm springs and Los Angeles. At
first Earthquake ( Dec 10.) crack will appear which will loosen the
stability of the structure, and it will be able to rotate slightly
around its axis.
If this rotation happens at second Earthquake, one possibility is that
land West of San Andreas fault will slightly ( 6 -10 meters?) go
downwards, San Andreas fault may crack a little bit more open, or , if
it holds, opposite side of rectangle ( situated inland) will try to
move up. It passes via Death Valley.
If the land West of San Andreas submerges, water can enter Sacramento
valley.
Partly the idea is based on existence of spiral type geometric ( and
may be other types still deeper) patterns in Earth's structure which
arise due to Earth's rotation.
The question remains why now? As I said , it is only based on my
intuition, provoked by events I consider "portents" because they defy
numerical , scientific analysis. But so far scientific analysis has not
predicted a single earthquake worth mentioning, so what is the
difference?
I think Tectonic plates and faults are relatively shallow structures.
Beneath them other patterns exist which do not coincide with them; I
think San Andreas Fault is situated approximately on top and parallel to
rotation axis of such a structure- a plate. The structure itself is a
straight angle rectangle plate in Mercator projection, positioned in a
45 degree angle to the grid. One of its borders run under Golden Gate
bridge, another approximately between Palm springs and Los Angeles. At
first Earthquake ( Dec 10.) crack will appear which will loosen the
stability of the structure, and it will be able to rotate slightly
around its axis.
If this rotation happens at second Earthquake, one possibility is that
land West of San Andreas fault will slightly ( 6 -10 meters?) go
downwards, San Andreas fault may crack a little bit more open, or , if
it holds, opposite side of rectangle ( situated inland) will try to
move up. It passes via Death Valley.
If the land West of San Andreas submerges, water can enter Sacramento
valley.
Partly the idea is based on existence of spiral type geometric ( and
may be other types still deeper) patterns in Earth's structure which
arise due to Earth's rotation.
The question remains why now? As I said , it is only based on my
intuition, provoked by events I consider "portents" because they defy
numerical , scientific analysis. But so far scientific analysis has not
predicted a single earthquake worth mentioning, so what is the
difference?
QUOTE (TRoc+Dec 5 2006, 10:12 AM)
I will check the Solar conditions over the next few days (Dec. 5 to 7) for "precursor" conditions, and report on Ivars "gut" prediction.
QUOTE (TRoc+Dec 5 2006, 06:12 PM)
Science can never leave intuition out of theory development; just because we still know next to nothing about consciousness, doesn't negate the historical facts of intuitive "flashes, visions, or inspir-ations" leading to MOST of mankind's greatest discoveries.
Although not in the exact focus of the theme, it could be interesting how this author sees possible mechanism of Earthquakes in the scope of his reexamination of the classical definitions of gravity and mass centers of (celestial) bodies:
J. Djuric, Magnetism as Manifestation of Gravitation, at www.journaloftheoretics.com/Links/Papers/JD.pdf
I’m not an expert in the field that’s for sure, but I am also fully convinced that, seeing in wider and pretty intuitive perspective, yes, these phenomena must have at least part of its cause in Solar system geometry but mass (energy) flow as well.
Or should I be more specific, sort of “astrological” angles in the System are influencing via spin-electro-gravitomagnetic forces. On the other hand, the same system also is basically non-linear by its nature and because of that (personal brevity aside) I would be very cautious about long-standing predictions.
Best to all
Although not in the exact focus of the theme, it could be interesting how this author sees possible mechanism of Earthquakes in the scope of his reexamination of the classical definitions of gravity and mass centers of (celestial) bodies:
J. Djuric, Magnetism as Manifestation of Gravitation, at www.journaloftheoretics.com/Links/Papers/JD.pdf
I’m not an expert in the field that’s for sure, but I am also fully convinced that, seeing in wider and pretty intuitive perspective, yes, these phenomena must have at least part of its cause in Solar system geometry but mass (energy) flow as well.
Or should I be more specific, sort of “astrological” angles in the System are influencing via spin-electro-gravitomagnetic forces. On the other hand, the same system also is basically non-linear by its nature and because of that (personal brevity aside) I would be very cautious about long-standing predictions.
Best to all
Hi all,
THEY ! You beat me to it, hehe.
I saw that one "peeking" around the corner last night. We have to wait for it to "come about" a little more to get an idea of whether we are dealing with a coronal hole and a flare, or what.
They have enough difference in velocities to have a large affect on the time frame, and location.
For a refresher for those interested:
The first data to watch is the
GOES13 X-Ray Solar Imager.
Unfortunately, that one is either down, or they are just turned away to avoid burnout from the x-class flare.
Another good one, computer sim, instead of cool photos:
http://www.raben.com/maps/
When the energy is in the "cross-hairs" (center of Sun) we start the timer. Based on the estimated speed, we can predict both when and where this energy will "localize". Magnitude STILL needs a precursor.
More Data:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
One to help with "charting" the line up:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Eart...img=learth.evif
After the energy is most of the way here, this data will confirm original estimates, and you can adjust slightly. There isn't much time left at this point however. It does help the learning curve of "good estimations" by following this.
http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html
For a very dramatic effect, this REAL-TIME "bow shock model" shows how our magnetic shield gets HAMMERED by these solar winds, and alfven & sound waves.
http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
While we are sure now that "something" is on the way, it is too early (at least with my non-computerized method) to judge the "line-up". A good program could do this easily, and with several days more notice than my "by hand" way.
I'll be back on Friday?
T.Roc
PS One for the Music Major : http://bison.ph.bham.ac.uk/sounds/solarsounds.html
THEY ! You beat me to it, hehe.
I saw that one "peeking" around the corner last night. We have to wait for it to "come about" a little more to get an idea of whether we are dealing with a coronal hole and a flare, or what.
They have enough difference in velocities to have a large affect on the time frame, and location.
For a refresher for those interested:
The first data to watch is the
GOES13 X-Ray Solar Imager.
Unfortunately, that one is either down, or they are just turned away to avoid burnout from the x-class flare.
Another good one, computer sim, instead of cool photos:
http://www.raben.com/maps/
When the energy is in the "cross-hairs" (center of Sun) we start the timer. Based on the estimated speed, we can predict both when and where this energy will "localize". Magnitude STILL needs a precursor.
More Data:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
One to help with "charting" the line up:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/uncgi/Eart...img=learth.evif
After the energy is most of the way here, this data will confirm original estimates, and you can adjust slightly. There isn't much time left at this point however. It does help the learning curve of "good estimations" by following this.
http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html
For a very dramatic effect, this REAL-TIME "bow shock model" shows how our magnetic shield gets HAMMERED by these solar winds, and alfven & sound waves.
http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
While we are sure now that "something" is on the way, it is too early (at least with my non-computerized method) to judge the "line-up". A good program could do this easily, and with several days more notice than my "by hand" way.
I'll be back on Friday?
T.Roc
PS One for the Music Major : http://bison.ph.bham.ac.uk/sounds/solarsounds.html
T.Roc,
Great links, thank You. Visualized Facts are the foundation of the Lost Art of Science. Absolutely great.
Can someone explain the proton flux growth /K indices meaning? They seem to have exponential growth after flare.
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
Great links, thank You. Visualized Facts are the foundation of the Lost Art of Science. Absolutely great.
Can someone explain the proton flux growth /K indices meaning? They seem to have exponential growth after flare.
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
Ivars,
Start with the links on that page. Click "gloassary" and "information" to get started. Wikipedia and NASA have good info too.
ciao,
T.Roc
Start with the links on that page. Click "gloassary" and "information" to get started. Wikipedia and NASA have good info too.
ciao,
T.Roc
rafael, could you explain the almost perfect grids and straight lines at the bottom of the ocean floor.
Mercury, Jupiter and Mars alignement = gravitational pull on 9th to 10th:
http://spaceweather.com/images2006/09dec06/skymap_north.gif
Is most likely going to coincide with a major flare:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_proton_G8_3d.gif?
http://spaceweather.com/images2006/09dec06/skymap_north.gif
Is most likely going to coincide with a major flare:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_proton_G8_3d.gif?
Currently the GOES 13 SXI is experiencing an anomaly possibly related to the X9 flare that occurred on 2006 December 5. NOAA and NASA staff are investigating. The GOES 13 SXI images provided are provisional only.
http://sec.noaa.gov/sxi/goes13/latest.html
http://sec.noaa.gov/sxi/goes13/latest.html
QUOTE (Guest_linda+Dec 7 2006, 01:17 PM)
rafael, could you explain the almost perfect grids and straight lines at the bottom of the ocean floor.
Linda_Guest,
Do you refer to these kind of lines?
Besides the ordinary sea bottom plies and crevises there are other lines which belong to auxiliary mappings grid which correspond to:
QUOTE: " * Is the sea floor really that bumpy, and what are the long, straight
lines on the ocean floor that converge on places like San Diego and
Bermuda?
The "orange-peel" look of the sea floor is mostly an artifact of the
satellite altimetry technology and its interpretation of ocean surface waves.
The straight lines are where direct shipborne measurements have been included
in the data as "ground truth". These measurements help calibrate, but do not
correspond 100 percent to the radar altimetry. See W.H.F. Smith and D.T.
Sandwell, 1997, Global Sea Floor Topography from Satellite Altimetry and Ship
Depth Soundings, Science 277 (5334), p.1956-1962."
There is an etopo map which you can access at:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/image/2minsur...350/45N135W.jpg
Please feel free to continue further define the enquiry.
Regards,
Rafael
Linda_Guest,
Do you refer to these kind of lines?
Besides the ordinary sea bottom plies and crevises there are other lines which belong to auxiliary mappings grid which correspond to:
QUOTE: " * Is the sea floor really that bumpy, and what are the long, straight
lines on the ocean floor that converge on places like San Diego and
Bermuda?
The "orange-peel" look of the sea floor is mostly an artifact of the
satellite altimetry technology and its interpretation of ocean surface waves.
The straight lines are where direct shipborne measurements have been included
in the data as "ground truth". These measurements help calibrate, but do not
correspond 100 percent to the radar altimetry. See W.H.F. Smith and D.T.
Sandwell, 1997, Global Sea Floor Topography from Satellite Altimetry and Ship
Depth Soundings, Science 277 (5334), p.1956-1962."
There is an etopo map which you can access at:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/image/2minsur...350/45N135W.jpg
Please feel free to continue further define the enquiry.
Regards,
Rafael
My prediction of Earthquake 6:30-7:10 December 10, magnitude>8, California, failed. I overcooked it as my initial idea was only:
this year, around Christmas, California, BIG; it still holds.
But credibility in my own eyes is down by 50%, as it will be my second prediction, and first one failed.
this year, around Christmas, California, BIG; it still holds.
But credibility in my own eyes is down by 50%, as it will be my second prediction, and first one failed.
Ivars, One thing I have learnt through years of seismicity analisys is that the EARTH does not care about predictions or dates, it has its own rythm and what for us is a century, may be a minute in earth time. However, as you say, you meant around Xmas, it may well happen tomorrow or xmas 2007, for the EARTH it doesn't really matters. (California/Mexico is still a good choice for a follow up to Kuril Is.' Big Earthquake)
Analisys shows the following posibilities for the coming months. There is still a deficit in seismicity for this year and the areas where at Big or Major earthquakes make take place are:
TONGA >8.0
INDONESIA >8.0
HIMALAYAS/ANATOLIA >8.0
MEXICO/CARIBBEAN > 7.0
CHINA > 7.0
CALIFORNIA > 7.0 (A probable second best as follow up from recent Big Earthquake)
KAMTCHAKA/ALASKA > 7.0 (This location is best choice because of recent Big Earthquake there)
NPSZ (Nazca Plate Subduction Zone or SouthAmerica) > 7.0
Much regards,
Rafael from the NPSZ
Analisys shows the following posibilities for the coming months. There is still a deficit in seismicity for this year and the areas where at Big or Major earthquakes make take place are:
TONGA >8.0
INDONESIA >8.0
HIMALAYAS/ANATOLIA >8.0
MEXICO/CARIBBEAN > 7.0
CHINA > 7.0
CALIFORNIA > 7.0 (A probable second best as follow up from recent Big Earthquake)
KAMTCHAKA/ALASKA > 7.0 (This location is best choice because of recent Big Earthquake there)
NPSZ (Nazca Plate Subduction Zone or SouthAmerica) > 7.0
Much regards,
Rafael from the NPSZ
QUOTE
There is still a deficit in seismicity for this year
Could You please explain? Compared to what You see deficit?
I know that Earth has different time scale, but quite big shakes happen rather often even by human standards.
Predicition for 2006 Christmas (as opposed to 2007) was based on many events ( see my previous posts) which took place this Year in California and around and, in my opinion, are related to increased risk of an Earthquake.
Mainly: increasing methane release and effects related to that.
Ivars & all,
If you like I can e-mail you Xcel sheet with global seismicity. Trying to explain:
Quote seismicity by year for the last 17 years; so many >8.0, so many >7.0, so many > 6.0. Give 8's value 1000, 7's value 100, 6's value 10, (5's value 1 if you like) you will average a yearly value of 5880. So far 2006 has delivered a value of 4270 so there is a yearly deficit value of 1610, which means, on average this year is short of 1 > 8.0 and 6 > 7.0. Now we don't expect all to take place but, there is a chance that in the next 2 or 3 months a few will take place.
If you average, >8.0 in time you will find that there is one per year, 16 each > 7.0 and 140 each > 6.0.
Data for 2006 up to December 13th is :
1 each > 8.0, 8 each > 7.0 and 127 each > 6.0. So, this either a LOW year or we are in deficit or more is to come...
As to WHERE these will take place, there is another Xcel sheet into which I have defined 16 GLOBAL AREAS, such as NPSZ, Mexico/caribbean, California, Alaska/Kamtchaka, Japan/Philipines,New Guinea, Tonga Indonesia, China, Himalayas/Anatolia, India/Somalia, Mediterranean/Iceland, and the last four lesser ones, Central Atlantic, Central Pacific, Nova Scotia and, Oceania
Data for 1973-2006 (Total sum)
30 each > 8.0, 398 each > 7.0 and 698 each > 6.0, of which,
Tonga and Indonesia account for close to 20% each
Japan/philipines, New Guinea and NPSZ account to close to 10% each
Alaska/Kamtchaka 7%
Himalayas/Anatolia 6%
The rest are around 2 or 3% (California included), except for the lesser ones which are one or less than one per cent.
You can also see that there is roughly 10 each > 7.0 for each > 8.0. This rule follows for each of the Global Areas. So I deduct that if an area has 2 each > 8.0 and only 7 each > 7.0 there is a better chance of a 7' taking place than an 8' (or the rule needs to be reassesed) The same deduction for an area which has 77 each > 7.0 and only 5 > 8.0. Thsi area has a higher probability of receiving an 8'.
Not very complicated, but helpful. I suppose the values could be more accurate if a 6.4 Magnitud is worth 140 instead of 100 and an 8.4 magn. is worth 1400 instead of 1000, but... (The logarithmic formula is kind of complicated for me to fit into xcel)
Much regards and please send me your e-mail to
peraltaquake@gmail.com
You can also click into Blogger:
http://rafaelperalta.blogspot.com/
and
http://sismoarica.blogspot.com/
Regards,
Rafael
If you like I can e-mail you Xcel sheet with global seismicity. Trying to explain:
Quote seismicity by year for the last 17 years; so many >8.0, so many >7.0, so many > 6.0. Give 8's value 1000, 7's value 100, 6's value 10, (5's value 1 if you like) you will average a yearly value of 5880. So far 2006 has delivered a value of 4270 so there is a yearly deficit value of 1610, which means, on average this year is short of 1 > 8.0 and 6 > 7.0. Now we don't expect all to take place but, there is a chance that in the next 2 or 3 months a few will take place.
If you average, >8.0 in time you will find that there is one per year, 16 each > 7.0 and 140 each > 6.0.
Data for 2006 up to December 13th is :
1 each > 8.0, 8 each > 7.0 and 127 each > 6.0. So, this either a LOW year or we are in deficit or more is to come...
As to WHERE these will take place, there is another Xcel sheet into which I have defined 16 GLOBAL AREAS, such as NPSZ, Mexico/caribbean, California, Alaska/Kamtchaka, Japan/Philipines,New Guinea, Tonga Indonesia, China, Himalayas/Anatolia, India/Somalia, Mediterranean/Iceland, and the last four lesser ones, Central Atlantic, Central Pacific, Nova Scotia and, Oceania
Data for 1973-2006 (Total sum)
30 each > 8.0, 398 each > 7.0 and 698 each > 6.0, of which,
Tonga and Indonesia account for close to 20% each
Japan/philipines, New Guinea and NPSZ account to close to 10% each
Alaska/Kamtchaka 7%
Himalayas/Anatolia 6%
The rest are around 2 or 3% (California included), except for the lesser ones which are one or less than one per cent.
You can also see that there is roughly 10 each > 7.0 for each > 8.0. This rule follows for each of the Global Areas. So I deduct that if an area has 2 each > 8.0 and only 7 each > 7.0 there is a better chance of a 7' taking place than an 8' (or the rule needs to be reassesed) The same deduction for an area which has 77 each > 7.0 and only 5 > 8.0. Thsi area has a higher probability of receiving an 8'.
Not very complicated, but helpful. I suppose the values could be more accurate if a 6.4 Magnitud is worth 140 instead of 100 and an 8.4 magn. is worth 1400 instead of 1000, but... (The logarithmic formula is kind of complicated for me to fit into xcel)
Much regards and please send me your e-mail to
peraltaquake@gmail.com
You can also click into Blogger:
http://rafaelperalta.blogspot.com/
and
http://sismoarica.blogspot.com/
Regards,
Rafael
Thank You,Rafael
I have further questions:
And how this load 5580 is distributed over months? Any periodicity? Is there any biger , longer load which seems to be constant over longer periods of time? How big deviations could happen in any given year?
Given what You say, approx 1500 is missing.
Where is biggest part of released earthquake energy is concentrated? In few big earthquakes or in thousands/millions of small size earthquakes?
My e-mail for Your excel files: ivars.fabriciuss@gmail.com
I have further questions:
And how this load 5580 is distributed over months? Any periodicity? Is there any biger , longer load which seems to be constant over longer periods of time? How big deviations could happen in any given year?
Given what You say, approx 1500 is missing.
Where is biggest part of released earthquake energy is concentrated? In few big earthquakes or in thousands/millions of small size earthquakes?
My e-mail for Your excel files: ivars.fabriciuss@gmail.com
Ivars,
SISMICIDAD GLOBAL 1990-2006
>8.0 >7.0 >6.0 >5.0
1990 0 18 112 1664
1991 0 18 105 1493
1992 0 24 170 1561
1993 1 15 147 1479
1994 2 13 163 1583
1995 3 24 187 1364
1996 1 21 166 1262
1997 0 20 129 1145
1998 2 14 117 1005
1999 0 23 132 1136
2000 1 14 158 1345
2001 1 15 126 1243
2002 0 13 130 1218
2003 1 14 140 1203
2004 11 14 141 1515
2005 1 10 151 1727
20061213 1 8 127 1200
Total 25 278 2401 23143
anual 1,4705 16,352 141,235 1361,352
Manged to fit this part for now. This is global for las 17 years. I have made global graphs for 100 years and in these you can clearly see periods of increased seismicity, periods of little seismicity with peaks and lows. Globally we seem to be on or near a peak (remember Sumatra was a 9.0 Mw earthquake which is like 10 ea. magn. 8.0 Mw. These three columns belong to the right of the upper table.
VALUE DEFICIT Accumulated deficit
4584 1295,588235
4343 1536,588235
5661 218,5882353 3050,764706
5449 430,5882353 3481,352941
6513 -633,4117647 2847,941176
8634 -2754,411765 93,52941176
6022 -142,4117647 -48,88235294
4435 1444,588235 1395,705882
5575 304,5882353 1700,294118
4756 1123,588235 2823,882353
5325 554,5882353 3378,470588
5003 876,5882353 4255,058824
3818 2061,588235 6316,647059
5003 876,5882353 7193,235294
15325 -9445,411765 -2252,176471
5237 642,5882353 -1609,588235
4270 1609,588235
5879,588235 anual
489,9656863 mensual
As you can see, values go from 3818 (lowest) to 15325 (highest, New zealand and Sumatra), but the average for the 17 years is 5880 or 490 per month. The third column shows deficit (positive) or superavit (negative) BECAUSE OF SUMATRA there is still a superavit, but BEFORE SUMATRA THERE WAS A HUGE DEFICIT!
GLOBAL SEISMICITY 1973-2006 (DEC 13)
SISMICIDAD GLOBAL 1973-2006 (DIC 13)
AREA > 8.0 MW > 7.0 MW VALOR %
NPSZ 3 37 67 9,60
MEXICO Y EL CARIBE 2 2 22 3,15
CALIFORNIA (NORTH AMERICA) 1 14 24 3,44
ALASKA Y KAMTCHAKA 2 28 48 6,88
JAPON Y FILIPINAS 3 43 73 10,46
NUEVA GUINEA 3 38 68 9,74
TONGA 5 77 127 18,19
CHINA 2 7 27 3,87
INDONESIA 6 85 145 20,77
HIMALAYAS Y ANATOLIA 1 30 40 5,73
INDIA Y SOMALIA 1 9 19 2,72
MEDITERRANEO E ISLANDIA 1 9 19 2,72
OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL 6 6 0,86
NOVA SCOTIA Y TRIPLE UNION 8 8 1,15
OCEANO PACIFICO CENTRAL 2 2 0,29
OCEANIA Y TRIPLE UNION 3 3 0,43
TOTAL 30 398 698 100,00
Here's part of the other table (1973-2006) In the last 34 years the NPSZ has had 3ea >8.0 and 37ea > 7.0 for roughly 10% of world seismicity. This is so even for the last 100 years and I suppose there might be periods of lesser or bigger deviations but to keep track of the present, lets use the last 34 years for which data is FAR MORE DEPENDABLE than the years before. If I count earhquakes in the NPSZ for 150 years I come to 1ea for every 8 years, although not regularly but compressed and extended in time, so I can asssume there is not much probability of an 8' (since there have been 3 in 7 years, compressed)but there will be when 7's are far more than 37, lets say 47, which is the case of Japan, Tonga and Philipines where at you can count far more 7's than the normal relation of 1 7' per each 8'.
The last part of your questions seems to me that is self addressed once you put magnitudes into the xcel sheet. Take 1993. Of the total value, 20% is the 8' and 30% each for 7's, 6's and 5's. As the relationship decreases from 10 towards the lower magnitudes, I would not expect them to make a significant difference as bigger ones rule the relation.
Regards from the NPSZ
Rafael
SISMICIDAD GLOBAL 1990-2006
>8.0 >7.0 >6.0 >5.0
1990 0 18 112 1664
1991 0 18 105 1493
1992 0 24 170 1561
1993 1 15 147 1479
1994 2 13 163 1583
1995 3 24 187 1364
1996 1 21 166 1262
1997 0 20 129 1145
1998 2 14 117 1005
1999 0 23 132 1136
2000 1 14 158 1345
2001 1 15 126 1243
2002 0 13 130 1218
2003 1 14 140 1203
2004 11 14 141 1515
2005 1 10 151 1727
20061213 1 8 127 1200
Total 25 278 2401 23143
anual 1,4705 16,352 141,235 1361,352
Manged to fit this part for now. This is global for las 17 years. I have made global graphs for 100 years and in these you can clearly see periods of increased seismicity, periods of little seismicity with peaks and lows. Globally we seem to be on or near a peak (remember Sumatra was a 9.0 Mw earthquake which is like 10 ea. magn. 8.0 Mw. These three columns belong to the right of the upper table.
VALUE DEFICIT Accumulated deficit
4584 1295,588235
4343 1536,588235
5661 218,5882353 3050,764706
5449 430,5882353 3481,352941
6513 -633,4117647 2847,941176
8634 -2754,411765 93,52941176
6022 -142,4117647 -48,88235294
4435 1444,588235 1395,705882
5575 304,5882353 1700,294118
4756 1123,588235 2823,882353
5325 554,5882353 3378,470588
5003 876,5882353 4255,058824
3818 2061,588235 6316,647059
5003 876,5882353 7193,235294
15325 -9445,411765 -2252,176471
5237 642,5882353 -1609,588235
4270 1609,588235
5879,588235 anual
489,9656863 mensual
As you can see, values go from 3818 (lowest) to 15325 (highest, New zealand and Sumatra), but the average for the 17 years is 5880 or 490 per month. The third column shows deficit (positive) or superavit (negative) BECAUSE OF SUMATRA there is still a superavit, but BEFORE SUMATRA THERE WAS A HUGE DEFICIT!
GLOBAL SEISMICITY 1973-2006 (DEC 13)
SISMICIDAD GLOBAL 1973-2006 (DIC 13)
AREA > 8.0 MW > 7.0 MW VALOR %
NPSZ 3 37 67 9,60
MEXICO Y EL CARIBE 2 2 22 3,15
CALIFORNIA (NORTH AMERICA) 1 14 24 3,44
ALASKA Y KAMTCHAKA 2 28 48 6,88
JAPON Y FILIPINAS 3 43 73 10,46
NUEVA GUINEA 3 38 68 9,74
TONGA 5 77 127 18,19
CHINA 2 7 27 3,87
INDONESIA 6 85 145 20,77
HIMALAYAS Y ANATOLIA 1 30 40 5,73
INDIA Y SOMALIA 1 9 19 2,72
MEDITERRANEO E ISLANDIA 1 9 19 2,72
OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL 6 6 0,86
NOVA SCOTIA Y TRIPLE UNION 8 8 1,15
OCEANO PACIFICO CENTRAL 2 2 0,29
OCEANIA Y TRIPLE UNION 3 3 0,43
TOTAL 30 398 698 100,00
Here's part of the other table (1973-2006) In the last 34 years the NPSZ has had 3ea >8.0 and 37ea > 7.0 for roughly 10% of world seismicity. This is so even for the last 100 years and I suppose there might be periods of lesser or bigger deviations but to keep track of the present, lets use the last 34 years for which data is FAR MORE DEPENDABLE than the years before. If I count earhquakes in the NPSZ for 150 years I come to 1ea for every 8 years, although not regularly but compressed and extended in time, so I can asssume there is not much probability of an 8' (since there have been 3 in 7 years, compressed)but there will be when 7's are far more than 37, lets say 47, which is the case of Japan, Tonga and Philipines where at you can count far more 7's than the normal relation of 1 7' per each 8'.
The last part of your questions seems to me that is self addressed once you put magnitudes into the xcel sheet. Take 1993. Of the total value, 20% is the 8' and 30% each for 7's, 6's and 5's. As the relationship decreases from 10 towards the lower magnitudes, I would not expect them to make a significant difference as bigger ones rule the relation.
Regards from the NPSZ
Rafael
Sorry for bursting bubbles guys but the havoc and land movement of whats named Earth Quake comes from a tone of sound interacting with the Earths Magnetic field.
Simply go out and dig holes, insert a listening device, record the tone of sound of a large quake. Once you have the tone pegged install these at strategic places around the globe.
Monitoring sound as it approaches a damaging tone gives ample warning to a catastrophic Earth Quake.
My science of this was relayed to Pacific Geo Science Centre and I understand that this filtered down to Stanford University. At Depth SAFOD Earth Scope
The results of this has the US government spending hundreds of millions for drilling and I understand that Japan has now manufactured a ship for ocean drilling.
PS It is magnetic sound energy that promotes a tsunami and yes that amount of energy promotes what is called a devastating Earth Quake.
Bruce Voigt
brucevoigtdiscoverer@shaw.ca
Simply go out and dig holes, insert a listening device, record the tone of sound of a large quake. Once you have the tone pegged install these at strategic places around the globe.
Monitoring sound as it approaches a damaging tone gives ample warning to a catastrophic Earth Quake.
My science of this was relayed to Pacific Geo Science Centre and I understand that this filtered down to Stanford University. At Depth SAFOD Earth Scope
The results of this has the US government spending hundreds of millions for drilling and I understand that Japan has now manufactured a ship for ocean drilling.
PS It is magnetic sound energy that promotes a tsunami and yes that amount of energy promotes what is called a devastating Earth Quake.
Bruce Voigt
brucevoigtdiscoverer@shaw.ca
Bruce Voigt,
I don't think you've "burst anyone's bubbles" here, except, perhaps your own.
Rafael is giving statistical analysis of past EQ's to better predict the probability of future quakes. There's going to be "a lot of holes to dig", don't you think? It would be nice to have a list of WHERE TO START digging!
I am giving the SOURCE for your "sound" (EQ frequencies), giving ADVANCE warning to the "sound" itself. Did you consider WHERE this "sound" comes from?
Ivars instinctively "heard" the "sound" before I could even monitor it. He may not have predicted an EQ (yet), but HE DID sense the LARGEST solar storm we've had in quite some time. In case you missed the headlines, this ENERGY blasted the West coast of the US, knocking out power to millions of homes.
We need a cohesive plan to achieve accurate EQ prediction, not "bubble bursting" attitude. Your idea, while "sound", will not do this all by itself.
T.Roc
I don't think you've "burst anyone's bubbles" here, except, perhaps your own.
Rafael is giving statistical analysis of past EQ's to better predict the probability of future quakes. There's going to be "a lot of holes to dig", don't you think? It would be nice to have a list of WHERE TO START digging!
I am giving the SOURCE for your "sound" (EQ frequencies), giving ADVANCE warning to the "sound" itself. Did you consider WHERE this "sound" comes from?
Ivars instinctively "heard" the "sound" before I could even monitor it. He may not have predicted an EQ (yet), but HE DID sense the LARGEST solar storm we've had in quite some time. In case you missed the headlines, this ENERGY blasted the West coast of the US, knocking out power to millions of homes.
We need a cohesive plan to achieve accurate EQ prediction, not "bubble bursting" attitude. Your idea, while "sound", will not do this all by itself.
T.Roc
A tsunami originating in British Columbia's interior that would wipe out thousands of miles including two nuclear power plants could easily be aborted if an early advanced prediction of an Earth Quake could be made.
Drilling a hole and monitoring sound in the Nakusp area would be a good plan. Nakusp is on the Arrow Lakes (part of the Columbia River system). Between Nakusp and Revolstoke there exists Geo Activity (hot springs) and its this area that could produce the tone of sound needed to activate a strong Earth Quake.
Early detection would allow the time needed to lower Revelstokes Dam Reservoir. Thus avoiding a interior tsunami.
At this time a Drilling rig is active on the San Andreas Fault and the US gov has put aside hundreds of millions of dollars for drilling to take place along the Pacific Coast (three holes to be drilled on Vancouver Island).
Post script -- There is not a reaction made that does not create Sound.
Bruce Voigt
brucevoigtdiscoverer@shaw.ca
Drilling a hole and monitoring sound in the Nakusp area would be a good plan. Nakusp is on the Arrow Lakes (part of the Columbia River system). Between Nakusp and Revolstoke there exists Geo Activity (hot springs) and its this area that could produce the tone of sound needed to activate a strong Earth Quake.
Early detection would allow the time needed to lower Revelstokes Dam Reservoir. Thus avoiding a interior tsunami.
At this time a Drilling rig is active on the San Andreas Fault and the US gov has put aside hundreds of millions of dollars for drilling to take place along the Pacific Coast (three holes to be drilled on Vancouver Island).
Post script -- There is not a reaction made that does not create Sound.
Bruce Voigt
brucevoigtdiscoverer@shaw.ca
Thanks TRoc.
I do not think I deserve it as I had no idea about solar storm but anyway it is pleasant that someone at least have noticed I have been trying to tell something.
QUOTE
HE DID sense the LARGEST solar storm we've had in quite some time
I do not think I deserve it as I had no idea about solar storm but anyway it is pleasant that someone at least have noticed I have been trying to tell something.
Next big one?
Somewhere around 2-4th Jan 2007 California.
Just in the last hour
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent...n/S_America.php
Somewhere around 2-4th Jan 2007 California.
Just in the last hour
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent...n/S_America.php
Is this usual place to have small quakes lately?
Minor quake rattles nerves in East Bay
MediaNews staff and wire reports
A minor earthquake rattled the East Bay Wednesday evening, tweaking a few nerves but causing no damage.
Initial reports from the U.S. Geologic Survey Earthquake Hazards Program rated the 7:12 p.m. quake at magnitude 3.7, centered two miles east southeast of Berkeley and six miles below the earth's surface.
``Some of us felt it and some of us didn't,'' said Cedric Price, spokesman for the Oakland Fire Department ``We all heard it; it sounded like a freight train.''
Many residents called authorities to report what they'd felt and ask questions, but East Bay police and fire departments reported no injuries or damage after the quake.
The quake was centered in the Hayward fault zone, which runs from the Bay off of North Richmond, through Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Fremont and runs several miles to the southeast of San Jose. Geologists believe the fault is due for a large quake in the potentially lethal 6.7 to 7.0 range.
``It's a pretty small earthquake, but just another reminder we're eventually going to have the biggie here in the Bay Area,'' said David P. Schwartz, who has studied the Hayward Fault extensively as chief of the U.S. Geological Survey's Bay Area Earthquake Hazards Project.
The Great Quake of 1868 struck on the Hayward Fault, a magnitude 6.9 rumbler that killed five people. Severe quakes have happened on the Hayward Fault every 151 years, give or take 23 years, meaning it is now into the danger zone.
Minor quake rattles nerves in East Bay
MediaNews staff and wire reports
A minor earthquake rattled the East Bay Wednesday evening, tweaking a few nerves but causing no damage.
Initial reports from the U.S. Geologic Survey Earthquake Hazards Program rated the 7:12 p.m. quake at magnitude 3.7, centered two miles east southeast of Berkeley and six miles below the earth's surface.
``Some of us felt it and some of us didn't,'' said Cedric Price, spokesman for the Oakland Fire Department ``We all heard it; it sounded like a freight train.''
Many residents called authorities to report what they'd felt and ask questions, but East Bay police and fire departments reported no injuries or damage after the quake.
The quake was centered in the Hayward fault zone, which runs from the Bay off of North Richmond, through Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Fremont and runs several miles to the southeast of San Jose. Geologists believe the fault is due for a large quake in the potentially lethal 6.7 to 7.0 range.
``It's a pretty small earthquake, but just another reminder we're eventually going to have the biggie here in the Bay Area,'' said David P. Schwartz, who has studied the Hayward Fault extensively as chief of the U.S. Geological Survey's Bay Area Earthquake Hazards Project.
The Great Quake of 1868 struck on the Hayward Fault, a magnitude 6.9 rumbler that killed five people. Severe quakes have happened on the Hayward Fault every 151 years, give or take 23 years, meaning it is now into the danger zone.
This is what I found in http://www.syzygyjob.com//index.php?option...topic=245317.0:
POSTED ONE EATHQUAKE EPI-CENTER
www.earthquakeepicenter.com www.earthquakeepicenter.com
KimLosGatosCA
Today at 11:31 AM
Hi Callie,
Congratulations! How about that - you just about got it on the nose. I think you might want to hang on to your higher magnitudes - I believe we may just be in for a ride!
Some Geologists may say that this weeks M3.7's and the M3.5 today aren't that big of a deal. They might use the term "swarm" which sounds more like a irritation rather than a matter to be concerned about. I'd like to have David Schwartz (USGS, Menlo Park, CA) give us his feedback. He said the Hayward Fault is likely is quake MUCH sooner than USGS estimated. [David If you can, please give me a call at the phone number below. Thank you.]
HOWEVER I think we need to pay SERIOUS attention to these quakes for they very well may be a EARLY WARNING SIGNS we may be approaching a failure on the HAYWARD FAULT (WHICH IS DUE FOR A MAJOR QUAKE) and/or near-by faults in the Bay Area.
Again, the significance of these jolts are their epicenter & hypo-center - Most specifically DIRECTLY on the HAYWARD FAULT. [see below.]
given the depth of the recent fuji, bali and kuril quakes, one would expect the tip of that arrow to move
INFORMATION has just been received that a double earthquake, of magnitudes 7.0 and 7.2, has taken place in the Taiwan area. Prelininary parameters for these events are:
DATE - TIME (UTC) - LATITUDE-LONG-DEPTH-MAGNITUDE
2006/12/26 12:34:14 22.023 120.539 10.0 7.0 Mw
2006/12/26 12:26:22 21.818 120.534 10.0 7.1 Mw
The earthquakes, took place some 8 minutes apart and very near to each other (some 22 Kms) at a depth of 10 Kms, which place them at the southern tip of Taiwan and at oceanic crust depth.
Regards from the NPSZ
DATE - TIME (UTC) - LATITUDE-LONG-DEPTH-MAGNITUDE
2006/12/26 12:34:14 22.023 120.539 10.0 7.0 Mw
2006/12/26 12:26:22 21.818 120.534 10.0 7.1 Mw
The earthquakes, took place some 8 minutes apart and very near to each other (some 22 Kms) at a depth of 10 Kms, which place them at the southern tip of Taiwan and at oceanic crust depth.
Regards from the NPSZ
Another Big Earthquake takes place some 120 Kms EAST from the location of the Kuril Big Earthquake of November 15th 2006.
2006 11 15 111416 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV (KURIL 1)
2007 01 13 042321 46.28 154.44 10 8.20 Mw (EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS/ KURIL 2)
The area has been trembling at a steady pace since before November 2006 as the list below shows.
FILE CREATED: Sat Jan 13 18:10:24 2007
Circle Search Earthquakes= 143
Circle Center Point Latitude: 46.000N Longitude: 153.000E
Radius: 300.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2006 - 2007 Month: 06/Day: 01 Month: 01/Day: 13
Magnitude Range: 5.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-W 2006 06 22 105311.57 45.42 149.34 95 6.10 mb GS 3F ....... 292
PDE-W 2006 08 14 141553.96 46.51 153.27 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 60
PDE-W 2006 08 22 165106.71 47.56 154.29 17 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 199
PDE-W 2006 08 30 192835.59 47.25 152.16 103 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-W 2006 08 31 094139.60 45.32 149.94 44 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 249
PDE-W 2006 09 26 010215.23 46.40 153.20 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 46
PDE-W 2006 09 26 022537.73 46.37 153.15 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 42
PDE-W 2006 09 26 235153.45 46.25 153.37 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 39
PDE-W 2006 09 28 013648.33 46.46 153.36 11 5.90 MwGS ... ....... 58
PDE-W 2006 09 28 235630.80 46.26 153.20 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 32
PDE-W 2006 09 29 130608.32 46.37 153.31 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 47
PDE-W 2006 09 30 175023.05 46.35 153.17 11 6.60 MwGS .. ....... 41
PDE-W 2006 09 30 175616.10 46.19 153.17 10 6.00 MwHRV .. ....... 24
PDE-W 2006 09 30 182515.62 46.31 153.38 7 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 45
PDE-W 2006 09 30 183338.02 46.33 153.26 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 41
PDE-W 2006 10 01 000415.58 46.60 153.10 22 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 66
PDE-W 2006 10 01 022359.91 46.21 152.98 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 23
PDE-W 2006 10 01 042836.62 46.15 153.05 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 17
PDE-W 2006 10 01 090602.32 46.47 153.24 19 6.60 MwHRV 2F ....... 55
PDE-W 2006 10 01 090959.94 46.48 153.26 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 57
PDE-W 2006 10 01 091250.31 46.52 153.13 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 59
PDE-W 2006 10 01 110456.71 46.42 153.42 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 57
PDE-W 2006 10 01 130706.46 46.40 153.20 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 46
PDE-W 2006 10 04 074055.97 46.55 153.50 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 72
PDE-W 2006 10 04 194417.69 46.47 153.73 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 76
PDE-W 2006 10 13 052102.04 46.45 153.09 28 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 50
PDE-W 2006 10 13 134739.89 46.25 153.28 8 6.30 MwGS .. M ....... 35
PDE-W 2006 10 13 135131.48 46.22 153.41 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 39
PDE-W 2006 10 16 232318.56 48.16 153.19 133 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 240
PDE-W 2006 10 17 043046.01 45.39 149.97 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 245
PDE-W 2006 11 08 082231.48 47.19 154.01 36 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-W 2006 11 08 145652.15 47.17 153.96 10 5.40 Ms GS .. . ....... 149
PDE-W 2006 11 08 204726.23 47.19 154.00 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-W 2006 11 08 205033.84 47.06 153.97 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 139
PDE-W 2006 11 09 022619.93 47.12 153.91 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 143
PDE-W 2006 11 12 212742.44 48.28 154.25 36 6.10 mb GS 2F ....... 270
PDE-W 2006 11 13 063030.31 46.65 153.45 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 80
PDE-W 2006 11 15 111334.36 46.48 153.30 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 57
PDE-W 2006 11 15 111413.57 46.59 153.27 10 8.30 MwHRV (Kuril 1) 68
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112306.92 46.30 154.61 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112429.86 46.27 154.52 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 121
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112457.49 47.77 153.18 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 197
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112509 47.52 152.65 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 170
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112838.46 46.09 154.10 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 85
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112922.79 46.37 154.48 10 6.20 mb GS .. . ....... 121
PDE-W 2006 11 15 113323.80 46.86 153.73 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 111
PDE-W 2006 11 15 113458.13 46.65 155.30 10 6.40 mb GS .. . ....... 191
PDE-W 2006 11 15 114003.87 47.67 151.52 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 217
PDE-W 2006 11 15 114055.05 46.48 154.73 10 6.40 mb GS .. . ....... 143
PDE-W 2006 11 15 114804.23 44.10 154.70 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 249
PDE-W 2006 11 15 115255.86 47.36 154.41 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 185
PDE-W 2006 11 15 120917.43 47.32 155.36 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 232
PDE-W 2006 11 15 121523.80 46.30 154.41 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 113
PDE-W 2006 11 15 121605.54 47.11 154.42 10 5.70 mb GS .. . ....... 164
PDE-W 2006 11 15 121644.15 46.19 154.67 10 5.90 mb GS .. . ....... 130
PDE-W 2006 11 15 122304.07 46.79 153.40 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 92
PDE-W 2006 11 15 122615.76 47.42 153.86 10 5.70 mb GS .. . ....... 171
PDE-W 2006 11 15 122821.33 47.06 155.53 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 226
PDE-W 2006 11 15 131730.88 46.63 153.98 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 103
PDE-W 2006 11 15 133823.71 47.03 155.19 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 203
PDE-W 2006 11 15 134643.20 46.62 155.00 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 169
PDE-W 2006 11 15 135815.85 46.60 155.01 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 168
PDE-W 2006 11 15 142054.56 47.60 154.08 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 196
PDE-W 2006 11 15 151157.07 46.28 154.17 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 95
PDE-W 2006 11 15 151540.53 46.72 153.00 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 79
PDE-W 2006 11 15 151933.05 46.09 154.46 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 113
PDE-W 2006 11 15 160418.02 48.05 155.16 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 281
PDE-W 2006 11 15 172530.79 47.15 155.15 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 208
PDE-W 2006 11 15 184704.97 47.57 155.08 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 236
PDE-W 2006 11 15 192525.99 47.01 154.98 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 188
PDE-W 2006 11 15 192806.39 47.08 155.17 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 204
PDE-W 2006 11 15 193702.45 46.51 154.86 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 154
PDE-W 2006 11 15 200422.59 47.19 155.27 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 218
PDE-W 2006 11 15 205648.57 46.86 155.05 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 184
PDE-W 2006 11 15 210206.64 47.24 153.77 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 149
PDE-W 2006 11 15 211708.22 46.87 155.00 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 181
PDE-W 2006 11 15 212221.46 47.28 154.15 12 6.10 MeGS .. . ....... 166
PDE-W 2006 11 15 212522.53 47.14 153.51 10 5.70 mb GS .. . ....... 132
PDE-W 2006 11 15 213124.32 47.38 154.16 13 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 177
PDE-W 2006 11 15 213509.59 47.67 154.55 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 219
PDE-W 2006 11 15 214008.55 46.72 153.30 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 83
PDE-W 2006 11 15 220705.16 46.50 152.90 30 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 55
PDE-W 2006 11 15 225033.09 46.97 155.35 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 209
PDE-W 2006 11 16 002256.24 47.16 153.49 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 134
PDE-W 2006 11 16 015804 46.80 155.07 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 182
PDE-W 2006 11 16 044228.62 47.38 155.06 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 220
PDE-W 2006 11 16 053438.40 46.76 154.85 2 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 165
PDE-W 2006 11 16 062020.77 46.36 154.47 9 6.00 mb GS .. ....... 120
PDE-W 2006 11 16 063205.75 46.23 154.49 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 117
PDE-W 2006 11 16 065708.83 46.13 153.25 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 24
PDE-W 2006 11 16 083738.96 46.69 154.91 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 165
PDE-W 2006 11 16 103611.76 47.41 154.43 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 190
PDE-W 2006 11 16 123551.16 46.63 153.70 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 88
PDE-W 2006 11 16 133432.14 47.75 154.54 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 227
PDE-W 2006 11 16 144937.86 46.54 153.67 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 79
PDE-W 2006 11 16 152307.06 47.31 155.62 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 247
PDE-W 2006 11 16 192944.87 47.06 155.58 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 230
PDE-W 2006 11 17 040954.49 47.03 155.48 11 5.40 mb GS .. ....... 222
PDE-W 2006 11 17 063349.45 47.02 155.53 10 5.60 MwGS .. ....... 224
PDE-W 2006 11 17 095811.25 46.81 155.00 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 178
PDE-W 2006 11 17 105818.24 47.50 154.21 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 190
PDE-W 2006 11 17 134814.92 46.29 154.39 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 112
PDE-W 2006 11 18 002141.19 46.98 154.97 10 5.30 Ms GS .. . ....... 186
PDE-W 2006 11 18 005703.37 46.95 155.11 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 193
PDE-W 2006 11 18 005938.51 46.77 155.06 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 180
PDE-W 2006 11 18 023536.70 47.07 155.41 17 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 219
PDE-W 2006 11 18 050040.06 46.74 154.99 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 173
PDE-W 2006 11 18 085054.80 48.17 154.81 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 277
PDE-W 2006 11 18 185438.05 46.34 153.15 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 39
PDE-W 2006 11 19 151652.20 46.90 154.89 10 5.60 mb GS .. M ....... 176
PDE-W 2006 11 19 215320.39 47.37 154.29 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 181
PDE-W 2006 11 20 052728.52 47.71 154.32 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 215
PDE-W 2006 11 20 164826.80 46.92 153.50 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 108
PDE-W 2006 11 20 230554.25 46.53 154.99 11 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 164
PDE-W 2006 11 21 090950.82 46.30 154.67 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 132
PDE-W 2006 11 21 233005.96 47.04 155.40 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 217
PDE-W 2006 11 22 024111.70 46.40 154.52 20 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 125
PDE-W 2006 11 22 095845.28 47.74 154.52 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 225
PDE-W 2006 11 22 103733.13 46.24 153.01 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 26
PDE-W 2006 11 22 104341.51 47.41 155.20 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 230
PDE-W 2006 11 22 230940.25 47.51 155.43 9 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 250
PDE-W 2006 11 23 150029.98 46.96 152.69 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 109
PDE-W 2006 11 23 150954.26 47.02 155.55 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 226
PDE-W 2006 11 23 160031.74 47.41 153.11 67 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 156
PDE-W 2006 11 23 200446.60 47.54 154.20 10 5.70 mb GS .. M ....... 193
PDE-W 2006 11 24 153410.17 46.76 153.77 11 5.70 mb GS .. M ....... 103
PDE-W 2006 11 24 210220.20 46.71 152.48 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 88
PDE-Q 2006 12 05 093426.55 46.70 152.56 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 84
PDE-Q 2006 12 07 191021.86 46.15 154.39 16 6.30 MwGS .. M ....... 108
PDE-Q 2006 12 11 074639.09 48.03 154.52 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 253
PDE-Q 2006 12 12 223206.98 46.34 153.00 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 37
PDE-Q 2006 12 13 015748.51 46.33 152.93 39 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 36
PDE-Q 2006 12 13 021108.90 46.19 152.99 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 21
PDE-Q 2006 12 13 114056.44 46.19 154.45 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 114
PDE-Q 2006 12 14 074309.13 47.10 152.63 65 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 125
PDE-Q 2006 12 14 104622.46 47.38 153.03 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-Q 2006 12 15 165901.04 46.43 153.01 1 5.70 mb GS .. M ....... 48
PDE-Q 2006 12 15 170109.60 46.38 153.06 10 5.70 Ms GS .. . ....... 42
PDE-Q 2006 12 26 151945.22 48.33 154.84 10 5.90 MwHRV .. M ....... 293
PDE-Q 2006 12 30 111633.94 46.76 155.46 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 207
PDE-Q 2007 01 02 133643.91 47.67 155.71 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 277
PDE-Q 2007 01 02 201904.61 47.58 155.62 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 265
PDE-Q 2007 01 09 202847.60 46.28 152.96 19 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 30
PDE-Q 2007/01/13 04:23:21 46.288 154.448 10.0 8.20 Mw (Kuril 2)
The only possible precursor to this latest Big Earthquake in the above listing may be event 2006 12 14 at a depth of 65 Km or maybe, the fact that after Big Earthquake Kuril 1 (Nov. 15th) most of the strong afterquakes fall in the aproximate coordinates of the Kuril 2 Big Earthquake. Apart from that, the remaining deficit of seismicity from 2006, as explained a few days ago.
Enjoy thinking!
and regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone
2006 11 15 111416 46.56 153.26 30 8.30 MwHRV (KURIL 1)
2007 01 13 042321 46.28 154.44 10 8.20 Mw (EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS/ KURIL 2)
The area has been trembling at a steady pace since before November 2006 as the list below shows.
FILE CREATED: Sat Jan 13 18:10:24 2007
Circle Search Earthquakes= 143
Circle Center Point Latitude: 46.000N Longitude: 153.000E
Radius: 300.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2006 - 2007 Month: 06/Day: 01 Month: 01/Day: 13
Magnitude Range: 5.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-W 2006 06 22 105311.57 45.42 149.34 95 6.10 mb GS 3F ....... 292
PDE-W 2006 08 14 141553.96 46.51 153.27 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 60
PDE-W 2006 08 22 165106.71 47.56 154.29 17 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 199
PDE-W 2006 08 30 192835.59 47.25 152.16 103 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-W 2006 08 31 094139.60 45.32 149.94 44 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 249
PDE-W 2006 09 26 010215.23 46.40 153.20 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 46
PDE-W 2006 09 26 022537.73 46.37 153.15 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 42
PDE-W 2006 09 26 235153.45 46.25 153.37 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 39
PDE-W 2006 09 28 013648.33 46.46 153.36 11 5.90 MwGS ... ....... 58
PDE-W 2006 09 28 235630.80 46.26 153.20 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 32
PDE-W 2006 09 29 130608.32 46.37 153.31 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 47
PDE-W 2006 09 30 175023.05 46.35 153.17 11 6.60 MwGS .. ....... 41
PDE-W 2006 09 30 175616.10 46.19 153.17 10 6.00 MwHRV .. ....... 24
PDE-W 2006 09 30 182515.62 46.31 153.38 7 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 45
PDE-W 2006 09 30 183338.02 46.33 153.26 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 41
PDE-W 2006 10 01 000415.58 46.60 153.10 22 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 66
PDE-W 2006 10 01 022359.91 46.21 152.98 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 23
PDE-W 2006 10 01 042836.62 46.15 153.05 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 17
PDE-W 2006 10 01 090602.32 46.47 153.24 19 6.60 MwHRV 2F ....... 55
PDE-W 2006 10 01 090959.94 46.48 153.26 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 57
PDE-W 2006 10 01 091250.31 46.52 153.13 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 59
PDE-W 2006 10 01 110456.71 46.42 153.42 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 57
PDE-W 2006 10 01 130706.46 46.40 153.20 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 46
PDE-W 2006 10 04 074055.97 46.55 153.50 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 72
PDE-W 2006 10 04 194417.69 46.47 153.73 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 76
PDE-W 2006 10 13 052102.04 46.45 153.09 28 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 50
PDE-W 2006 10 13 134739.89 46.25 153.28 8 6.30 MwGS .. M ....... 35
PDE-W 2006 10 13 135131.48 46.22 153.41 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 39
PDE-W 2006 10 16 232318.56 48.16 153.19 133 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 240
PDE-W 2006 10 17 043046.01 45.39 149.97 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 245
PDE-W 2006 11 08 082231.48 47.19 154.01 36 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-W 2006 11 08 145652.15 47.17 153.96 10 5.40 Ms GS .. . ....... 149
PDE-W 2006 11 08 204726.23 47.19 154.00 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-W 2006 11 08 205033.84 47.06 153.97 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 139
PDE-W 2006 11 09 022619.93 47.12 153.91 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 143
PDE-W 2006 11 12 212742.44 48.28 154.25 36 6.10 mb GS 2F ....... 270
PDE-W 2006 11 13 063030.31 46.65 153.45 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 80
PDE-W 2006 11 15 111334.36 46.48 153.30 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 57
PDE-W 2006 11 15 111413.57 46.59 153.27 10 8.30 MwHRV (Kuril 1) 68
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112306.92 46.30 154.61 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112429.86 46.27 154.52 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 121
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112457.49 47.77 153.18 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 197
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112509 47.52 152.65 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 170
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112838.46 46.09 154.10 10 6.00 mb GS .. . ....... 85
PDE-W 2006 11 15 112922.79 46.37 154.48 10 6.20 mb GS .. . ....... 121
PDE-W 2006 11 15 113323.80 46.86 153.73 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 111
PDE-W 2006 11 15 113458.13 46.65 155.30 10 6.40 mb GS .. . ....... 191
PDE-W 2006 11 15 114003.87 47.67 151.52 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 217
PDE-W 2006 11 15 114055.05 46.48 154.73 10 6.40 mb GS .. . ....... 143
PDE-W 2006 11 15 114804.23 44.10 154.70 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 249
PDE-W 2006 11 15 115255.86 47.36 154.41 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 185
PDE-W 2006 11 15 120917.43 47.32 155.36 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 232
PDE-W 2006 11 15 121523.80 46.30 154.41 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 113
PDE-W 2006 11 15 121605.54 47.11 154.42 10 5.70 mb GS .. . ....... 164
PDE-W 2006 11 15 121644.15 46.19 154.67 10 5.90 mb GS .. . ....... 130
PDE-W 2006 11 15 122304.07 46.79 153.40 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 92
PDE-W 2006 11 15 122615.76 47.42 153.86 10 5.70 mb GS .. . ....... 171
PDE-W 2006 11 15 122821.33 47.06 155.53 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 226
PDE-W 2006 11 15 131730.88 46.63 153.98 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 103
PDE-W 2006 11 15 133823.71 47.03 155.19 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 203
PDE-W 2006 11 15 134643.20 46.62 155.00 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 169
PDE-W 2006 11 15 135815.85 46.60 155.01 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 168
PDE-W 2006 11 15 142054.56 47.60 154.08 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 196
PDE-W 2006 11 15 151157.07 46.28 154.17 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 95
PDE-W 2006 11 15 151540.53 46.72 153.00 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 79
PDE-W 2006 11 15 151933.05 46.09 154.46 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 113
PDE-W 2006 11 15 160418.02 48.05 155.16 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 281
PDE-W 2006 11 15 172530.79 47.15 155.15 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 208
PDE-W 2006 11 15 184704.97 47.57 155.08 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 236
PDE-W 2006 11 15 192525.99 47.01 154.98 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 188
PDE-W 2006 11 15 192806.39 47.08 155.17 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 204
PDE-W 2006 11 15 193702.45 46.51 154.86 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 154
PDE-W 2006 11 15 200422.59 47.19 155.27 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 218
PDE-W 2006 11 15 205648.57 46.86 155.05 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 184
PDE-W 2006 11 15 210206.64 47.24 153.77 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 149
PDE-W 2006 11 15 211708.22 46.87 155.00 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 181
PDE-W 2006 11 15 212221.46 47.28 154.15 12 6.10 MeGS .. . ....... 166
PDE-W 2006 11 15 212522.53 47.14 153.51 10 5.70 mb GS .. . ....... 132
PDE-W 2006 11 15 213124.32 47.38 154.16 13 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 177
PDE-W 2006 11 15 213509.59 47.67 154.55 10 5.60 mb GS .. . ....... 219
PDE-W 2006 11 15 214008.55 46.72 153.30 10 5.50 mb GS .. . ....... 83
PDE-W 2006 11 15 220705.16 46.50 152.90 30 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 55
PDE-W 2006 11 15 225033.09 46.97 155.35 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 209
PDE-W 2006 11 16 002256.24 47.16 153.49 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 134
PDE-W 2006 11 16 015804 46.80 155.07 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 182
PDE-W 2006 11 16 044228.62 47.38 155.06 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 220
PDE-W 2006 11 16 053438.40 46.76 154.85 2 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 165
PDE-W 2006 11 16 062020.77 46.36 154.47 9 6.00 mb GS .. ....... 120
PDE-W 2006 11 16 063205.75 46.23 154.49 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 117
PDE-W 2006 11 16 065708.83 46.13 153.25 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 24
PDE-W 2006 11 16 083738.96 46.69 154.91 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 165
PDE-W 2006 11 16 103611.76 47.41 154.43 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 190
PDE-W 2006 11 16 123551.16 46.63 153.70 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 88
PDE-W 2006 11 16 133432.14 47.75 154.54 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 227
PDE-W 2006 11 16 144937.86 46.54 153.67 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 79
PDE-W 2006 11 16 152307.06 47.31 155.62 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 247
PDE-W 2006 11 16 192944.87 47.06 155.58 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 230
PDE-W 2006 11 17 040954.49 47.03 155.48 11 5.40 mb GS .. ....... 222
PDE-W 2006 11 17 063349.45 47.02 155.53 10 5.60 MwGS .. ....... 224
PDE-W 2006 11 17 095811.25 46.81 155.00 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 178
PDE-W 2006 11 17 105818.24 47.50 154.21 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 190
PDE-W 2006 11 17 134814.92 46.29 154.39 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 112
PDE-W 2006 11 18 002141.19 46.98 154.97 10 5.30 Ms GS .. . ....... 186
PDE-W 2006 11 18 005703.37 46.95 155.11 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 193
PDE-W 2006 11 18 005938.51 46.77 155.06 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 180
PDE-W 2006 11 18 023536.70 47.07 155.41 17 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 219
PDE-W 2006 11 18 050040.06 46.74 154.99 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 173
PDE-W 2006 11 18 085054.80 48.17 154.81 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 277
PDE-W 2006 11 18 185438.05 46.34 153.15 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 39
PDE-W 2006 11 19 151652.20 46.90 154.89 10 5.60 mb GS .. M ....... 176
PDE-W 2006 11 19 215320.39 47.37 154.29 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 181
PDE-W 2006 11 20 052728.52 47.71 154.32 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 215
PDE-W 2006 11 20 164826.80 46.92 153.50 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 108
PDE-W 2006 11 20 230554.25 46.53 154.99 11 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 164
PDE-W 2006 11 21 090950.82 46.30 154.67 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 132
PDE-W 2006 11 21 233005.96 47.04 155.40 10 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 217
PDE-W 2006 11 22 024111.70 46.40 154.52 20 5.30 mb GS .. . ....... 125
PDE-W 2006 11 22 095845.28 47.74 154.52 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 225
PDE-W 2006 11 22 103733.13 46.24 153.01 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 26
PDE-W 2006 11 22 104341.51 47.41 155.20 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 230
PDE-W 2006 11 22 230940.25 47.51 155.43 9 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 250
PDE-W 2006 11 23 150029.98 46.96 152.69 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 109
PDE-W 2006 11 23 150954.26 47.02 155.55 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 226
PDE-W 2006 11 23 160031.74 47.41 153.11 67 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 156
PDE-W 2006 11 23 200446.60 47.54 154.20 10 5.70 mb GS .. M ....... 193
PDE-W 2006 11 24 153410.17 46.76 153.77 11 5.70 mb GS .. M ....... 103
PDE-W 2006 11 24 210220.20 46.71 152.48 10 5.40 mb GS .. . ....... 88
PDE-Q 2006 12 05 093426.55 46.70 152.56 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 84
PDE-Q 2006 12 07 191021.86 46.15 154.39 16 6.30 MwGS .. M ....... 108
PDE-Q 2006 12 11 074639.09 48.03 154.52 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 253
PDE-Q 2006 12 12 223206.98 46.34 153.00 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 37
PDE-Q 2006 12 13 015748.51 46.33 152.93 39 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 36
PDE-Q 2006 12 13 021108.90 46.19 152.99 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 21
PDE-Q 2006 12 13 114056.44 46.19 154.45 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 114
PDE-Q 2006 12 14 074309.13 47.10 152.63 65 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 125
PDE-Q 2006 12 14 104622.46 47.38 153.03 10 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 153
PDE-Q 2006 12 15 165901.04 46.43 153.01 1 5.70 mb GS .. M ....... 48
PDE-Q 2006 12 15 170109.60 46.38 153.06 10 5.70 Ms GS .. . ....... 42
PDE-Q 2006 12 26 151945.22 48.33 154.84 10 5.90 MwHRV .. M ....... 293
PDE-Q 2006 12 30 111633.94 46.76 155.46 10 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 207
PDE-Q 2007 01 02 133643.91 47.67 155.71 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 277
PDE-Q 2007 01 02 201904.61 47.58 155.62 10 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 265
PDE-Q 2007 01 09 202847.60 46.28 152.96 19 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 30
PDE-Q 2007/01/13 04:23:21 46.288 154.448 10.0 8.20 Mw (Kuril 2)
The only possible precursor to this latest Big Earthquake in the above listing may be event 2006 12 14 at a depth of 65 Km or maybe, the fact that after Big Earthquake Kuril 1 (Nov. 15th) most of the strong afterquakes fall in the aproximate coordinates of the Kuril 2 Big Earthquake. Apart from that, the remaining deficit of seismicity from 2006, as explained a few days ago.
Enjoy thinking!
and regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone
All,
The long list, posted on Jan 14th, of earthquakes > 5.0 magnitude, shows a particularity worth noting for future prediction. I include here earthquakes > 5.0 magnitude for the six months prior to June 22nd 2006. It only shows 4 such earthquakes (and the June 22nd event):
PDE-W 2006 01 05 060157.39 47.53 152.60 133 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 172
PDE-W 2006 03 09 082355.34 44.99 151.73 56 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 149
PDE-W 2006 04 06 170938.21 46.95 153.94 35 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-W 2006 04 07 150002.10 44.88 150.37 65 5.50 mb GS 2. ....... 240
PDE-W 2006 06 22 105311.57 45.42 149.34 95 6.10 mb GS 3F ....... 292
It shows there is NO CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY near the 46 north 153 east coordinates in the six months previous to a swarm.
ACTIVITY near the location of next to be Kuril1 and Kuril2 Big Earthquakes starts with one event on August 14th, and then, the precursory activity starts on September 26th with 18 earthquakes in five days, including 3 strong earthquakes (6.6 Mw, 6.0 Mw and 6.6 Mw), a three day silence, then a couple more (Oct 4th), a nine day silence, then 3 more including a 6.3 Mw magnitude (Oct 13th), the NO MORE EARTHQUAKES at the 46-153 location.
After a 30 day silence, acitvity restarts at the 46-153 location on November 13th. THIS IS THE CRITICAL MOMENT, will it continue to die out or will it continue to stronger activity? On November 15th a moderate 5.0 magnitude takes place a few kilometers away from Kuril 1, which takes place less than a minute afterwards.
I have seen this kind of sequential activity before a Major or Big Earthquakes not once but several times... The sequence could be defined as a SWARM because activity is not decaying naturaly but is instead an increase-decrease, sequence-silence-sequence- sort of burst. If I'm allowed to get poetic "you could hear the cracks in the branch before it broke altogether".
Regards from the NPSZ
The long list, posted on Jan 14th, of earthquakes > 5.0 magnitude, shows a particularity worth noting for future prediction. I include here earthquakes > 5.0 magnitude for the six months prior to June 22nd 2006. It only shows 4 such earthquakes (and the June 22nd event):
PDE-W 2006 01 05 060157.39 47.53 152.60 133 5.00 mb GS .. . ....... 172
PDE-W 2006 03 09 082355.34 44.99 151.73 56 5.20 mb GS .. . ....... 149
PDE-W 2006 04 06 170938.21 46.95 153.94 35 5.10 mb GS .. . ....... 128
PDE-W 2006 04 07 150002.10 44.88 150.37 65 5.50 mb GS 2. ....... 240
PDE-W 2006 06 22 105311.57 45.42 149.34 95 6.10 mb GS 3F ....... 292
It shows there is NO CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY near the 46 north 153 east coordinates in the six months previous to a swarm.
ACTIVITY near the location of next to be Kuril1 and Kuril2 Big Earthquakes starts with one event on August 14th, and then, the precursory activity starts on September 26th with 18 earthquakes in five days, including 3 strong earthquakes (6.6 Mw, 6.0 Mw and 6.6 Mw), a three day silence, then a couple more (Oct 4th), a nine day silence, then 3 more including a 6.3 Mw magnitude (Oct 13th), the NO MORE EARTHQUAKES at the 46-153 location.
After a 30 day silence, acitvity restarts at the 46-153 location on November 13th. THIS IS THE CRITICAL MOMENT, will it continue to die out or will it continue to stronger activity? On November 15th a moderate 5.0 magnitude takes place a few kilometers away from Kuril 1, which takes place less than a minute afterwards.
I have seen this kind of sequential activity before a Major or Big Earthquakes not once but several times... The sequence could be defined as a SWARM because activity is not decaying naturaly but is instead an increase-decrease, sequence-silence-sequence- sort of burst. If I'm allowed to get poetic "you could hear the cracks in the branch before it broke altogether".
Regards from the NPSZ
powers that be don't want us to know facts because of our supposed panic, therefore scientists should not be furious that governments don't publicly acknowledge credible earthquake predictors, those same governments are preplanning tactics for mass evacuations
Guest_Linda, All,
I have added the following LINK to a GLOBAL SEISMICITY MAP showing all 33 Big Earthquakes for the last 34 years (1973-2006)
http://sismomundo.blogspot.com/
You will be able to see that all, but 4, big earthquakes fall in TRENCHES of SUBDUCTION ZONES. (If you add 33 more years , 1940-1972, the pattern holds) Also, you should be able to see the three seismicity branches that are born out of coordinates 0, 135. One going west to SUMATRA-HIMALAYAS, one going north to JAPAN-ALASKA and one going east to NEW GUINEA-TONGA. These three areas, PLUS South America, account for most of global seismicity.
Regards from the NPSZ!
I have added the following LINK to a GLOBAL SEISMICITY MAP showing all 33 Big Earthquakes for the last 34 years (1973-2006)
http://sismomundo.blogspot.com/
You will be able to see that all, but 4, big earthquakes fall in TRENCHES of SUBDUCTION ZONES. (If you add 33 more years , 1940-1972, the pattern holds) Also, you should be able to see the three seismicity branches that are born out of coordinates 0, 135. One going west to SUMATRA-HIMALAYAS, one going north to JAPAN-ALASKA and one going east to NEW GUINEA-TONGA. These three areas, PLUS South America, account for most of global seismicity.
Regards from the NPSZ!
these are elementary, but have they been answered: like the question, which came first the chicken or the egg, which comes first the shallow movement or the deep movement? these plates have teeth edges of rock, a gear edge if you will, what is the observed movement of other plates to the moving plate?
Guest_linda, Will give a quick answer. I believe the extra deep earthquakes comes first, liquifaction or melting occurs, which makes room for the plate to subduct. However, the plate does not move quickly or right away, it will keep gathering momentum until the "teeth" let go, then it moves. The upper (continental plate in the NPSZ case) plate accomodates to the movement by trembling and advancing in the contrary direction, and by growing in height.
Remember the continental plate is being pushed west by the spreading of the Mid Atlantic Ridge, while the Nazca Plate is being pushed east by (the spreading of) the Mid Pacific Ridge
Regards form the NPSZ!
Remember the continental plate is being pushed west by the spreading of the Mid Atlantic Ridge, while the Nazca Plate is being pushed east by (the spreading of) the Mid Pacific Ridge
Regards form the NPSZ!
the sun has been blasting the earth with the results of strong sunspots, messing with the magnetic field around and probably within the earth, messing, no doubt, with the intricate honing abilities of sea life, bees, most likely birds, and probably the molten layer below the crust, churning it in ways that move, split, and upend tectonic plates. just a quess.
FRIDAY - 20 JULY 2007 - 4:42 am - 9 second blast and rumble -
the longest quake - centered in Oakland-Berkeley Hills
Are these blasting hot gases surfacing in places where the
fault opens??? Like the geysers???
http://world-cultures.tripod.com/global-warming/
At the SF station it measured 4.2 but it was much stronger
in the Berkeley Hills area where we have no measurement tools.
(some china fell out of the cabinet and broke.)
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/nc40199209.html
the longest quake - centered in Oakland-Berkeley Hills
Are these blasting hot gases surfacing in places where the
fault opens??? Like the geysers???
http://world-cultures.tripod.com/global-warming/
At the SF station it measured 4.2 but it was much stronger
in the Berkeley Hills area where we have no measurement tools.
(some china fell out of the cabinet and broke.)
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/nc40199209.html
http://world-cultures.tripod.com/global-warming/
A major cause of global warming is not mentioned:
http://nuclear-accidents.tripod.com/strasbourg.htm
A major cause of global warming is not mentioned:
http://nuclear-accidents.tripod.com/strasbourg.htm
PhysOrg scientific forums are totally dedicated to science, physics, and technology. Besides topical forums such as nanotechnology, quantum physics, silicon and III-V technology, applied physics, materials, space and others, you can also join our news and publications discussions. We also provide an off-topic forum category. If you need specific help on a scientific problem or have a question related to physics or technology, visit the PhysOrg Forums. Here you’ll find experts from various fields online every day.
To quit out of "lo-fi" mode and return to the regular forums, please click here.