http://www.newsweek.com/id/197812
He is not kidding!
Kurzweil is an incredibly talented, intelligent and informed crank.
The very idea that we are approaching a point, beyond which our lifestyles and technology are unimaginable seems to be rooted in a sort of religious yearning. I believe it was Mitch Kapor who described it as "Intelligent design for the IQ 140 people."
I concur with that assessment. Read some classic sci-fi (that isn't space operas) or some stories set in the Orion's Arm universe, to see just how differently we can currently imagine life to be, and then ask yourself if life will be that different by 2045, Kurzweil's predicted singularity date. Kurzweil's unshakable belief in this is what marks him as a crank. You can argue with him all you want, but you'll never change his mind about even the slightest detail of his predictions.
But he's no idiot. I do find many of his predictions to be lacking in consideration of factors he lacks expertise in (economics, psychology, sociology, etc) but they are otherwise well-informed and realistic in their scope. He predicted both 3 dimensional processors for computers and the rise of solid-state memory by 2009, and 2009 is the year in which both of those technologies are beginning to make a serious impact. He failed in that he neglected to take economic factors into consideration. Samsung has build a 256GB flash drive, but it costs a thousand dollars. Similarly, IBM has developed the 3D microchip, but it's too expensive for commercial use. If he would temper his desire for this singularity with some more education in subjects germane to his field of predictions and more realism in his projected implementation and acceptance of these advances, he might find himself to be one of the most accurate 'prophets' to have ever lived. But I believe it is his very desire to see his predictions come true that prevents him from tempering his visions with more realism and consideration.
I don't think the future will turn out the way he thinks it will. I do think that many of his predictions will come true, however. How many remains to be seen.
The very idea that we are approaching a point, beyond which our lifestyles and technology are unimaginable seems to be rooted in a sort of religious yearning. I believe it was Mitch Kapor who described it as "Intelligent design for the IQ 140 people."
I concur with that assessment. Read some classic sci-fi (that isn't space operas) or some stories set in the Orion's Arm universe, to see just how differently we can currently imagine life to be, and then ask yourself if life will be that different by 2045, Kurzweil's predicted singularity date. Kurzweil's unshakable belief in this is what marks him as a crank. You can argue with him all you want, but you'll never change his mind about even the slightest detail of his predictions.
But he's no idiot. I do find many of his predictions to be lacking in consideration of factors he lacks expertise in (economics, psychology, sociology, etc) but they are otherwise well-informed and realistic in their scope. He predicted both 3 dimensional processors for computers and the rise of solid-state memory by 2009, and 2009 is the year in which both of those technologies are beginning to make a serious impact. He failed in that he neglected to take economic factors into consideration. Samsung has build a 256GB flash drive, but it costs a thousand dollars. Similarly, IBM has developed the 3D microchip, but it's too expensive for commercial use. If he would temper his desire for this singularity with some more education in subjects germane to his field of predictions and more realism in his projected implementation and acceptance of these advances, he might find himself to be one of the most accurate 'prophets' to have ever lived. But I believe it is his very desire to see his predictions come true that prevents him from tempering his visions with more realism and consideration.
I don't think the future will turn out the way he thinks it will. I do think that many of his predictions will come true, however. How many remains to be seen.
QUOTE (Empress Palpatine+May 19 2009, 03:48 AM)
QUOTE (MjolnirPants+May 19 2009, 12:20 AM)
Kurzweil is an incredibly talented, intelligent and informed crank.
...and apparently a very rich one too!
Personally, after reading the article, I believed him just a little. It is true that there have been a lot of advancements in the world of robots and computers. I remember reading about this blind man who had his brain hooked up to a computer which gave him some limited sight. They will no doubt do some pretty amazing things...if we don't die from global warming or nuclear war first.
...and apparently a very rich one too!
Personally, after reading the article, I believed him just a little. It is true that there have been a lot of advancements in the world of robots and computers. I remember reading about this blind man who had his brain hooked up to a computer which gave him some limited sight. They will no doubt do some pretty amazing things...if we don't die from global warming or nuclear war first.
PhysOrg scientific forums are totally dedicated to science, physics, and technology. Besides topical forums such as nanotechnology, quantum physics, silicon and III-V technology, applied physics, materials, space and others, you can also join our news and publications discussions. We also provide an off-topic forum category. If you need specific help on a scientific problem or have a question related to physics or technology, visit the PhysOrg Forums. Here you’ll find experts from various fields online every day.
To quit out of "lo-fi" mode and return to the regular forums, please click here.