[continued from Rafael Peralta's thread Earthquake Predictions Reviewed, to not divert the topic from his intention]
Hi all,
Just an update..
First, let me edit some statements made above, so that they are of a more "Scientific" slant.
"..I postulate is a reconnection event. They happen on the "night side", and follow a group of mid-magnitude quakes. They are always a bit bigger than the largest EQ in the group."
That would be better stated, "they are commensurate with the total energy of the group".
"That side (far) of our magnetopause has far too many variables to contemplate a specific time and location.."
It is not so much the # of variables, but the lack of data available concerning those variables.
OK.
EQ review (I have left out all activity deemed "aftershocks" of the 7.2 ALEUTIAN/ANDREANOF IS.), concerning the statement/prediction, "..another heavy period of EQ activity this week, too. Nearly all of the largest EQs will be in the S. Hemi." [Dec 19 - 26]
2007/12/20 03:06:58 32.63S 71.50W 34 5.3 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2007/12/20 09:48:30 39.41N 33.15E 10 5.7 CENTRAL TURKEY
2007/12/20 07:55:16 38.86S 178.52E 36 6.6 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
2007/12/20 07:42:53 3.49S 100.65E 30 5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/21 03:10:57 -57.727 -141.394 10.0 5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
2007/12/21 22:05:12 26.837 126.783 110.8 5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
2007/12/21 14:17:14 -20.506 -174.453 83.8 5.0 TONGA
2007/12/22 12:26:19 2.088 96.860 35.0 5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
2007/12/22 07:11:11 -2.390 139.086 35.0 6.1 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
2007/12/22 04:50:38 -17.198 -174.038 35.0 5.1 TONGA
2007/12/22 02:22:07 -23.038 -114.285 10.0 5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION
2007/12/23 13:45:28 -2.755 36.158 10.0 5.3 TANZANIA
2007/12/23 13:10:29 -8.941 123.730 117.9 5.3 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/23 12:56:13 -4.038 39.206 10.0 5.0 KENYA
2007/12/24 21:21:56 -4.240 101.268 56.0 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2007/12/24 20:56:21 -4.464 101.092 35.0 5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2007/12/24 10:43:48 -26.628 -176.100 44.5 5.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
2007/12/25 23:38:55 38.393 142.280 36.7 5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2007/12/25 16:54:28 0.178 97.056 37.9 5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/25 16:20:52 -19.457 -69.050 112.7 5.8 TARAPACA, CHILE
2007/12/25 14:04:35 38.502 141.969 49.9 6.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2007/12/25 07:52:48 -3.284 142.455 21.8 5.1 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
2007/12/25 01:48:50 -17.649 -178.449 506.7 5.0 FIJI REGION
2007/12/26 23:47:12 39.523 33.115 10.0 5.3 CENTRAL TURKEY 2007/12/26 23:40:53 -22.336 -68.309 96.9 5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2007/12/26 17:12:46 -5.339 131.207 22.3 5.5 BANDA SEA
2007/12/26 05:06:08 -22.049 -176.441 154.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
2007/12/26 04:45:33 40.356 73.031 46.3 5.3 KYRGYZSTAN
2007/12/26 04:14:21 -8.769 157.572 10.0 5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
2007/12/27 11:44:29 -63.162 149.931 10.0 5.1 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
The BOLD latitudes are the quakes that fell in the North Hemi.
The BOLD locations (BALLENY ISLANDS REGION, PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE) are evidence supporting the statement, "..the same coronal structure is still exists, albeit further south." You will find that these extremes are lower than the extremes 1 month ago, because (postulated) of the said change in position of the coronal structure, over the period of the last Solar rotation.
So, (rating myself) I think that that was a good weekly forecast.
Just because of the strong correlation (not because I know anything about the weather), I'll include some follow-up to the statement," IE. for the next several days, we should be getting cooler that normal temps in the S. hemisphere; and look for another tropical storm(s) to develop. (similar to the last week of Nov)".
[cruising the news on the internet]
(Reuters) Dec 25 "..All three of Mexico's main oil-exporting ports shut on Sunday due to a storm. Two of the ports, Cayo Arcas and Coatzacoalcos, reopened on Monday while the third, Dos Bocas, reopened early on Tuesday after the two-day closure. "
(BERNAMA.com ) Flooding in Pahang, Johor Malaysia
(Yahoo.com news) Heavy rains this last week lead to landslides in central Java, Indonesia on the 26th.
(Yahoo.com / India)
December 22
"..rain prevented a single ball from being bowled on the final day of the warm-up match against Victoria" (Melbourne, Australia)
December 23
"..runners brave chilly weather to take part in Delhi marathon" (New Delhi, India)
and, from personal observation here in Chile, definitely cooler here too, and some (welcome) rain.
For "related interest": twice before, I have come across an "anomaly" while compiling EQ data like this one. Sometimes, man inadvertently builds "gravitational and/or shock wave detectors" in the form of very poorly, and over-limit, constructed buildings, and we get a "sudden, unexplained" collapse. For what it's worth, I find them to be in proximity to EQ activity.
2 EQ's on Dec 23, a 5.0 in Kenya, and a 5.3 in Tanzania
2 EQ's on Dec 26, a 4.9 and a 5.3 in Central Turkey
between them, lies Alexandria, Egypt.
On Dec 24, we had "the collapse of a 12-storey residential building in Egypt's Mediterranean city of Alexandria".
"On Tuesday (25th), also in Alexandria, at least five people were injured when a building partially collapsed, security sources said."
(Reuters)
regards,
T.Roc
PS. This thread also has roots in several other threads, so that you can follow it from the beginning, if interested. earthquakes warning , IS EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION ALIVE?
Do GRB's affect earthquakes?
That's a good question, PJ. (and well worded) 
If you has said "caused", I would say "no". There is no known, direct link.
However, saying "affect" forces me to say "yes"; though nothing "in the books" as of yet.
Because I believe EQ's to be a non-linear dynamic (with SEC), with several steps involved, "cause" might be biting off too much.
It would not be the GRB itself (defined as the gamma rays & following "light" that we see), but rather, the postulated gravity wave that would go along with the cause of the GRB. (and, of course, they have to be "aimed" at Earth)
I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.
I can link some interesting papers on this, and talk further when I have more time. Just wanted to get an answer out there. Also, to point out that I spend zero time monitoring GRB's, nor do I have any specific energy transfer mechanism worked out. I have no specific way to predict the magnitude of a quake, other than the occasional "educated guess", when pointing out "fault trends", where EQ's in one region are mirrored in another (separate) region. I do believe that this will be able to be performed "on the ground", after a specific location is identified.
The main thrust of this developing theory, is predicting the time and location of EQ's, from 2 to 4 days in advance, based on approximations derived from the extent and "shape" of coronal holes, solar wind speed, and a "lensing" performed by our (fluctuating) magnetopause. There are other factors as well, SW density, Alfven speed, Mach, IMF azimuth, magnetograms, etc. , but that gives the over-all idea.
Not all EQ's will have this as the cause; there are aftershock groups, and re-connection shocks as well. My premise is that the Earth does not jump out of equilibrium on its' own; it is brought out of equilibrium by energy from the Sun (or elsewhere), and then dissipates back to a steady state. Note that the "steady state" includes a steady flow of smaller EQ's.
There are many ideas/theories concerning this data, but none that I'm aware of, are going PAST the "biosphere" as pre-cursor, and looking for the CAUSE of those EM/Seismic pre-cursors. I can be right, without (most of) those ideas being wrong. This is wide open, and full of little understood areas, new branch of Physics. It's any body's game right now, and that is exciting.
regards,
Thomas Roccetta
If you has said "caused", I would say "no". There is no known, direct link.
However, saying "affect" forces me to say "yes"; though nothing "in the books" as of yet.
Because I believe EQ's to be a non-linear dynamic (with SEC), with several steps involved, "cause" might be biting off too much.
It would not be the GRB itself (defined as the gamma rays & following "light" that we see), but rather, the postulated gravity wave that would go along with the cause of the GRB. (and, of course, they have to be "aimed" at Earth)
I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.
I can link some interesting papers on this, and talk further when I have more time. Just wanted to get an answer out there. Also, to point out that I spend zero time monitoring GRB's, nor do I have any specific energy transfer mechanism worked out. I have no specific way to predict the magnitude of a quake, other than the occasional "educated guess", when pointing out "fault trends", where EQ's in one region are mirrored in another (separate) region. I do believe that this will be able to be performed "on the ground", after a specific location is identified.
The main thrust of this developing theory, is predicting the time and location of EQ's, from 2 to 4 days in advance, based on approximations derived from the extent and "shape" of coronal holes, solar wind speed, and a "lensing" performed by our (fluctuating) magnetopause. There are other factors as well, SW density, Alfven speed, Mach, IMF azimuth, magnetograms, etc. , but that gives the over-all idea.
Not all EQ's will have this as the cause; there are aftershock groups, and re-connection shocks as well. My premise is that the Earth does not jump out of equilibrium on its' own; it is brought out of equilibrium by energy from the Sun (or elsewhere), and then dissipates back to a steady state. Note that the "steady state" includes a steady flow of smaller EQ's.
There are many ideas/theories concerning this data, but none that I'm aware of, are going PAST the "biosphere" as pre-cursor, and looking for the CAUSE of those EM/Seismic pre-cursors. I can be right, without (most of) those ideas being wrong. This is wide open, and full of little understood areas, new branch of Physics. It's any body's game right now, and that is exciting.
regards,
Thomas Roccetta
QUOTE (TRoc+Dec 27 2007, 08:43 PM)
I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.
That does sound a bit scary.
Thank you very much for your reply. More specifically now, could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally? I ask since it's currently one of my personal thought experiments.
Thank you,
PJ Parent
P.S. (re: rapid oscillation in our magnetopause) superluminal wavehock of the supermetallic core... rogues...
Thanks for the crash course on EQ's. It is very amazing and very interesting.
That does sound a bit scary.
Thank you very much for your reply. More specifically now, could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally? I ask since it's currently one of my personal thought experiments.
Thank you,
PJ Parent
P.S. (re: rapid oscillation in our magnetopause) superluminal wavehock of the supermetallic core... rogues...
Thanks for the crash course on EQ's. It is very amazing and very interesting.
I can imagine a rogue gravitywave affecting ocean tides and tectonic plates along with one's sense of gravity.
Hi all,
PJ, just keep in mind that I said, "nothing "in the books" as of yet"; I'm not trying to set myself up there, but trying to make sure that readers will not go away saying, "Thanks for the crash course on EQ's".
I'm not picking on you, but we need to be clear on this. I agree with the mind-set of many on the forum, that are "peeved" about pet theories being promoted as "truth". As long as the proper "disclosures" are made, then we are being scientific. This is a process, and for the thread itself, I am doing this "open book" in the hopes that some of these young guns can put their new skills to new, unanswered, real-world problems. My cart is full, and I am "old & in the way", as far as the new math is concerned.
What I am going to do, as time permits, is post some of my "case studies", so that they can be reviewed by a large audience. This is "cyber publishing"; according to the laws of copyright, this thread is "publishing". As this is, AFAIK, new work and theory, then I would ask that the proper reference be made (why I put my full name in the last post). For the rest of it, as usual in Science, there is much more work to be done, and that means opportunity for someone else.
Also as time permits, I will do "weekly forecasts" for EQ activity, and when time (and simple coronal structures) permit, do more specific, time and location predictions. As has been pointed out to me by Rafael Peralta, and Trippy, without being able to predict magnitude, along with very accurate predictions, there isn't much point in "going public" with any warnings; I agree. I do feel, however, (and will give more details) that on the ground, in the vicinity of an impending quake, that a method can be developed to determine magnitude. That is the importance of giving a 3 day, time and location prediction: to get the equipment in place. Right now, there are only a few places in the World with the equipment permanently installed. Much along the lines of flying dog teams into certain disasters to sniff for survivors, a team could be assembled with the proper devices. After some success, EQ prone areas would be prompted to get their own, permanent equipment.
To your question, if I understand it correctly, "could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally", you are asking if the GRB happens before, and not with the EQ? The answer is yes. There are great distances to be covered, and a great amount of time; necessarily, the GRB would happen before the EQ.. probably by thousands of years! Of course, this is "nothing" on the scale of the Universe, but you can see why this might be left "off the table", in a linear approximation~theory.
Even "rogue waves" were thought to be "sailor's myths", until fairly recent times. Prevailing theory (linear) predicted that they should occur but once every 10,000 years. In 1980, an oil freighter traveling in S. African waters, reported such a wave; a photo shows what appears to be a wave on the order of the 85 ft masts of the ship. In 1995, the RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 reported surviving an encounter with a 95ft rogue wave. [1]
These reports inspired precise measurements by satellite based lasers, and after which, changed the prevailing theory. "..observations imply that a handful of these waves is occurring at every moment somewhere on the ocean". "Recently, scientists from Sweden and Germany, Padma Shukla et al., have presented the first analysis and simulation of its kind for the instability of nonlinear waves interacting in deep water. " "Using the Schrodinger equations, the scientists studied the impact of different wave speeds and different angles at which two waves intersect. The team found that for a certain, relatively small angle, a new instability arises with a "maximum growth rate that is more than twice as large as the ones for the single wave cases," they report. Two waves meeting at such an angle would escape normal stabilizing effects and exhibit constructive interference that would result in a freak wave. Strong currents can help further by "focusing" waves, continually building them up to giant sizes. " [quotes, and source 1 : Physorg.com "New theory (and old equations) may explain causes of ship-sinking freak waves" 09/2006]
Of course, we know that water waves are different from other waves, but this seems to be a Fundamental principle for all waves. The relatively small angle of intersecting waves, of different speeds, giving rise to a Resonance phenomenon. I have postulated elsewhere, this same methodology for light, separated by slits, or other homogeneous medium (ie crystalline), re-forming (interfering) the fundamental frequency (energy conservation), while undergoing an increase in "intensity/amplitude" (as well as exhibiting dark fringe "beats"). Both water and light can exhibit self-reinforcing boundary conditions: the soliton wave (as well as an "Airy Packet" - Berry, Balazs -1978).
I have worked this out, in an "inverse method", that is, for waves of slightly differing frequencies, separated by a very small time. They too intersect at small angles, giving rise to beats that are independent of the source. These form "caustics", shaping the envelope of the interacting frequencies so that they do not "spread". In Music, this is the "chord": an envelope of interacting frequencies that arrives with the Fundamental frequency "revived" by the small angle intersections that produce Resonance (higher amplitude). So, none of the above is "standard" theory, and should be noted as such. Other than working out a mathematical derivation of a chord, nothing that I'm doing is "original". I am just generalizing; piecing together data from specialists, who would not otherwise be communicating/mixing their ideas to form the larger picture.
Back to these CIR's (co-rotating interacting regions). I am saying that a GRB caused gravity wave is a special case, for the daily interaction of the Solar wind with the Earth's magnetopause. Both have the effect of "ringing" our bell. The timing of these interactions should play the large role in determining the resonant transfer of energy into the mass of the Earth. Any "velocity modulation", like the CIR, has a forward shock, and a rear shock wave associated. This bubble, or envelope, can be inferred by monitoring the conditions of near-Earth space.
Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
regards,
T.Roc
PJ, just keep in mind that I said, "nothing "in the books" as of yet"; I'm not trying to set myself up there, but trying to make sure that readers will not go away saying, "Thanks for the crash course on EQ's".
I'm not picking on you, but we need to be clear on this. I agree with the mind-set of many on the forum, that are "peeved" about pet theories being promoted as "truth". As long as the proper "disclosures" are made, then we are being scientific. This is a process, and for the thread itself, I am doing this "open book" in the hopes that some of these young guns can put their new skills to new, unanswered, real-world problems. My cart is full, and I am "old & in the way", as far as the new math is concerned.
What I am going to do, as time permits, is post some of my "case studies", so that they can be reviewed by a large audience. This is "cyber publishing"; according to the laws of copyright, this thread is "publishing". As this is, AFAIK, new work and theory, then I would ask that the proper reference be made (why I put my full name in the last post). For the rest of it, as usual in Science, there is much more work to be done, and that means opportunity for someone else.
Also as time permits, I will do "weekly forecasts" for EQ activity, and when time (and simple coronal structures) permit, do more specific, time and location predictions. As has been pointed out to me by Rafael Peralta, and Trippy, without being able to predict magnitude, along with very accurate predictions, there isn't much point in "going public" with any warnings; I agree. I do feel, however, (and will give more details) that on the ground, in the vicinity of an impending quake, that a method can be developed to determine magnitude. That is the importance of giving a 3 day, time and location prediction: to get the equipment in place. Right now, there are only a few places in the World with the equipment permanently installed. Much along the lines of flying dog teams into certain disasters to sniff for survivors, a team could be assembled with the proper devices. After some success, EQ prone areas would be prompted to get their own, permanent equipment.
To your question, if I understand it correctly, "could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally", you are asking if the GRB happens before, and not with the EQ? The answer is yes. There are great distances to be covered, and a great amount of time; necessarily, the GRB would happen before the EQ.. probably by thousands of years! Of course, this is "nothing" on the scale of the Universe, but you can see why this might be left "off the table", in a linear approximation~theory.
Even "rogue waves" were thought to be "sailor's myths", until fairly recent times. Prevailing theory (linear) predicted that they should occur but once every 10,000 years. In 1980, an oil freighter traveling in S. African waters, reported such a wave; a photo shows what appears to be a wave on the order of the 85 ft masts of the ship. In 1995, the RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 reported surviving an encounter with a 95ft rogue wave. [1]
These reports inspired precise measurements by satellite based lasers, and after which, changed the prevailing theory. "..observations imply that a handful of these waves is occurring at every moment somewhere on the ocean". "Recently, scientists from Sweden and Germany, Padma Shukla et al., have presented the first analysis and simulation of its kind for the instability of nonlinear waves interacting in deep water. " "Using the Schrodinger equations, the scientists studied the impact of different wave speeds and different angles at which two waves intersect. The team found that for a certain, relatively small angle, a new instability arises with a "maximum growth rate that is more than twice as large as the ones for the single wave cases," they report. Two waves meeting at such an angle would escape normal stabilizing effects and exhibit constructive interference that would result in a freak wave. Strong currents can help further by "focusing" waves, continually building them up to giant sizes. " [quotes, and source 1 : Physorg.com "New theory (and old equations) may explain causes of ship-sinking freak waves" 09/2006]
Of course, we know that water waves are different from other waves, but this seems to be a Fundamental principle for all waves. The relatively small angle of intersecting waves, of different speeds, giving rise to a Resonance phenomenon. I have postulated elsewhere, this same methodology for light, separated by slits, or other homogeneous medium (ie crystalline), re-forming (interfering) the fundamental frequency (energy conservation), while undergoing an increase in "intensity/amplitude" (as well as exhibiting dark fringe "beats"). Both water and light can exhibit self-reinforcing boundary conditions: the soliton wave (as well as an "Airy Packet" - Berry, Balazs -1978).
I have worked this out, in an "inverse method", that is, for waves of slightly differing frequencies, separated by a very small time. They too intersect at small angles, giving rise to beats that are independent of the source. These form "caustics", shaping the envelope of the interacting frequencies so that they do not "spread". In Music, this is the "chord": an envelope of interacting frequencies that arrives with the Fundamental frequency "revived" by the small angle intersections that produce Resonance (higher amplitude). So, none of the above is "standard" theory, and should be noted as such. Other than working out a mathematical derivation of a chord, nothing that I'm doing is "original". I am just generalizing; piecing together data from specialists, who would not otherwise be communicating/mixing their ideas to form the larger picture.
Back to these CIR's (co-rotating interacting regions). I am saying that a GRB caused gravity wave is a special case, for the daily interaction of the Solar wind with the Earth's magnetopause. Both have the effect of "ringing" our bell. The timing of these interactions should play the large role in determining the resonant transfer of energy into the mass of the Earth. Any "velocity modulation", like the CIR, has a forward shock, and a rear shock wave associated. This bubble, or envelope, can be inferred by monitoring the conditions of near-Earth space.
Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
regards,
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Dec 28 2007, 04:38 PM)
Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
I'm not sure I understand the point of these last few paragraphs. Are you suggesting that people should, on a relatively frequent basis when a coronal hole is present, go to your link and manually write down the data from the dials and then type that into some other document?
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
I'm not sure I understand the point of these last few paragraphs. Are you suggesting that people should, on a relatively frequent basis when a coronal hole is present, go to your link and manually write down the data from the dials and then type that into some other document?
barakn,
I'm saying that an organized "team" could do this. It wouldn't be "random people". There would hopefully be something like an organized "shift" for observation/recording. This Google-Doc would be able to be viewed by all, real-time, including changes made, notes, etc. "Volunteers" could be contacted to see if available for a particular slot.
The way I record this now, is to simply drag the cursor across the whole set of dials, and copy/paste it to a word doc, which I start for a particular CH, categorized by date. This doc also has several pics of the CH itself, as well as the relative position/rotation of the Earth. The crucial time is the expected arrival time, which can vary by ~12hrs, depending on the average SW speed. If I miss this time, for all practical purposes, it's gone.
So, it is a little work, but no manual writing or copying. Just click, ctrl-c, click, ctrl-v. That's about it. The point is, that I'm missing vast chunks of data while I am asleep, or doing anything else. The dials are a huge shortcut, compared to requesting access to the raw data, and compiling/computing manually. It can't be done in 45 min, that's for sure!
Again, this could all be "automated", and someday, hopefully, it will. But for now, this is it: private research by "backyard astronomers"and "weekend warriors". But look at their success!
ciao,
T.Roc
I'm saying that an organized "team" could do this. It wouldn't be "random people". There would hopefully be something like an organized "shift" for observation/recording. This Google-Doc would be able to be viewed by all, real-time, including changes made, notes, etc. "Volunteers" could be contacted to see if available for a particular slot.
The way I record this now, is to simply drag the cursor across the whole set of dials, and copy/paste it to a word doc, which I start for a particular CH, categorized by date. This doc also has several pics of the CH itself, as well as the relative position/rotation of the Earth. The crucial time is the expected arrival time, which can vary by ~12hrs, depending on the average SW speed. If I miss this time, for all practical purposes, it's gone.
So, it is a little work, but no manual writing or copying. Just click, ctrl-c, click, ctrl-v. That's about it. The point is, that I'm missing vast chunks of data while I am asleep, or doing anything else. The dials are a huge shortcut, compared to requesting access to the raw data, and compiling/computing manually. It can't be done in 45 min, that's for sure!
Again, this could all be "automated", and someday, hopefully, it will. But for now, this is it: private research by "backyard astronomers"and "weekend warriors". But look at their success!
ciao,
T.Roc
TRoc,
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why couldn't you just get the data from here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace.html
It would take a far better scripter than I to pull the data from the text files automatically. There's also the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files, but if someone could find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data.
Oh, and here's a link to some plots of the data:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why couldn't you just get the data from here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace.html
It would take a far better scripter than I to pull the data from the text files automatically. There's also the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files, but if someone could find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data.
Oh, and here's a link to some plots of the data:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html
Hi barakn,
It's more me and my quirks, I think.
There are several "personal" reasons; my eyesight is declining, and the Doc says it's from too much reading on the monitor. So I try to stay away from bulk "text" reading. I also am a "visual" mentality, and am quite familiar with the gages (their color scheme gives an extra "dimension") already.
The others, you mentioned: ".. the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files". "..find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data", which is just what they are doing at Rice. If it's already being done...
Thanks for the links, though. I would swear that when I looked for that data a few months ago, it was not there; but the second one also looks familiar, so I don't know. I have a bad habit of "crashing" my browser from having too many windows open, and from overloading Adobe with papers. So, sometimes I lose a couple of hours of research, and any links, or papers that I haven't saved. Do you know if it goes back before October? I couldn't find that.
I do use others too:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm
http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2.../29/index.shtml
http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi/servlet/sxibr...9&hr1=19&mn1=01
http://www.raben.com/maps/
http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
(not working right now)
ciao,
T.Roc
It's more me and my quirks, I think.
There are several "personal" reasons; my eyesight is declining, and the Doc says it's from too much reading on the monitor. So I try to stay away from bulk "text" reading. I also am a "visual" mentality, and am quite familiar with the gages (their color scheme gives an extra "dimension") already.
The others, you mentioned: ".. the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files". "..find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data", which is just what they are doing at Rice. If it's already being done...
Thanks for the links, though. I would swear that when I looked for that data a few months ago, it was not there; but the second one also looks familiar, so I don't know. I have a bad habit of "crashing" my browser from having too many windows open, and from overloading Adobe with papers. So, sometimes I lose a couple of hours of research, and any links, or papers that I haven't saved. Do you know if it goes back before October? I couldn't find that.
I do use others too:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm
http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2.../29/index.shtml
http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi/servlet/sxibr...9&hr1=19&mn1=01
http://www.raben.com/maps/
http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
(not working right now)
ciao,
T.Roc
TRoc,
My eyes are also getting a little .
My one link contains only the last month's worth of 1 and 5 minute data (it's Level 1 or 'Raw' data at that, not cleaned up). A year's worth of hourly data is here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html
Archival level 2 data going all the way back to the beginning of ACE can be found here:
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/index.html
My eyes are also getting a little
.My one link contains only the last month's worth of 1 and 5 minute data (it's Level 1 or 'Raw' data at that, not cleaned up). A year's worth of hourly data is here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html
Archival level 2 data going all the way back to the beginning of ACE can be found here:
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/index.html
Hi all,
Very nice, barakn; thanks a lot!
This helps reviewing past events considerably.
ciao,
T.Roc
Very nice, barakn; thanks a lot!
This helps reviewing past events considerably.
ciao,
T.Roc
Hi all,
A news item: Earthquake 'memory' could spur aftershocks
http://www.physorg.com/news118590259.html
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
..at Pennsylvania State University, where Marone had developed an apparatus that mimics earthquakes by pressing plates atop a layer of tiny glass beads.
..Johnson wondered whether sound waves could induce earthquakes in such a system. His colleagues originally believed sound would have no effect.
Much to their surprise, the earthquake machine revealed that when sound waves were applied for a short period just before the quake, they could induce smaller quakes, or, in some instances, delay the occurrence of the next major one. The sound waves seemed to affect earthquake behavior for as many as 10 earthquake events after they were applied.
More surprising still, the team found that the granular beads could store a “memory” even after the system had undergone a quake and the beads had rearranged themselves.
Once again, we find someone "brave" enough to question, and the consensus having the (incorrect) answer, before the experimental results. Science is like that.
As I have pondered, we have a definite relationship to EQ and low frequency pre-cursors. This is quickly becoming "main-stream". We also have the ability for storage and memory to take place in the fault lines themselves. Current theory does not have an answer for where EQ energy comes from. So, I can not say that this evidence is against current theory, only that it is able to support the one that I am advancing. The reason I state that there is no good answer for "where from", is that we know less about the interior of the Earth than we do the workings of the Sun, which is far from complete. There is no agreement, and recent suggestions to change the standing idea, of what exactly is at the core of our Planet. We can not even be sure, at this time, whether the Earth actually generates its' own magnetic field, or if this is being done by the Sun.
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
regards,
T.Roc
A news item: Earthquake 'memory' could spur aftershocks
http://www.physorg.com/news118590259.html
QUOTE
In a letter appearing today in Nature, Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleagues Heather Savage, Mike Knuth, Joan Gomberg, and Chris Marone show how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials—like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe—and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake.
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| In a letter appearing today in Nature, Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleagues Heather Savage, Mike Knuth, Joan Gomberg, and Chris Marone show how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials—like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe—and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake. |
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
..at Pennsylvania State University, where Marone had developed an apparatus that mimics earthquakes by pressing plates atop a layer of tiny glass beads.
..Johnson wondered whether sound waves could induce earthquakes in such a system. His colleagues originally believed sound would have no effect.
Much to their surprise, the earthquake machine revealed that when sound waves were applied for a short period just before the quake, they could induce smaller quakes, or, in some instances, delay the occurrence of the next major one. The sound waves seemed to affect earthquake behavior for as many as 10 earthquake events after they were applied.
More surprising still, the team found that the granular beads could store a “memory” even after the system had undergone a quake and the beads had rearranged themselves.
Once again, we find someone "brave" enough to question, and the consensus having the (incorrect) answer, before the experimental results. Science is like that.
As I have pondered, we have a definite relationship to EQ and low frequency pre-cursors. This is quickly becoming "main-stream". We also have the ability for storage and memory to take place in the fault lines themselves. Current theory does not have an answer for where EQ energy comes from. So, I can not say that this evidence is against current theory, only that it is able to support the one that I am advancing. The reason I state that there is no good answer for "where from", is that we know less about the interior of the Earth than we do the workings of the Sun, which is far from complete. There is no agreement, and recent suggestions to change the standing idea, of what exactly is at the core of our Planet. We can not even be sure, at this time, whether the Earth actually generates its' own magnetic field, or if this is being done by the Sun.
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
QUOTE
The ionosphere is formed by solar X-rays and ultraviolet light, which break apart atoms and molecules in the upper atmosphere, creating a layer of electrically-charged gas known as plasma. The densest part of the ionosphere forms two bands of plasma close to the equator at a height of almost 250 miles.
..
Using pictures from IMAGE, the team discovered four pairs of bright regions where the ionosphere was almost twice as dense as the average.
..
The connection to plasma bands in the ionosphere surprised scientists at first because these tides from the thunderstorms can not affect the ionosphere directly.
..
However, the researchers discovered the tides could affect the plasma bands indirectly by modifying a layer of the atmosphere below the bands that shapes them. Below the plasma bands, a layer of the ionosphere called the E-layer becomes partially electrified during the day. This region creates the plasma bands above it when high-altitude winds blow plasma in the E-layer across the Earth's magnetic field. Since plasma is electrically charged, its motion across the Earth's magnetic field acts like a generator, creating an electric field. This electric field shapes the plasma above into the two bands. Anything that would change the motion of the E-layer plasma would also change the electric fields they generate, which would then reshape the plasma bands above.
..
Using pictures from IMAGE, the team discovered four pairs of bright regions where the ionosphere was almost twice as dense as the average.
..
The connection to plasma bands in the ionosphere surprised scientists at first because these tides from the thunderstorms can not affect the ionosphere directly.
..
However, the researchers discovered the tides could affect the plasma bands indirectly by modifying a layer of the atmosphere below the bands that shapes them. Below the plasma bands, a layer of the ionosphere called the E-layer becomes partially electrified during the day. This region creates the plasma bands above it when high-altitude winds blow plasma in the E-layer across the Earth's magnetic field. Since plasma is electrically charged, its motion across the Earth's magnetic field acts like a generator, creating an electric field. This electric field shapes the plasma above into the two bands. Anything that would change the motion of the E-layer plasma would also change the electric fields they generate, which would then reshape the plasma bands above.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi Troc
Curious if the resonance from the earthquakes (I'm not saying this right, but I don't have time) had anything to do with the volcano? I know the volcano and earthquakes are linked, but could the resonance move magma too? (Do I make sense? Or am I in too much of a hurry?)
Curious if the resonance from the earthquakes (I'm not saying this right, but I don't have time) had anything to do with the volcano? I know the volcano and earthquakes are linked, but could the resonance move magma too? (Do I make sense? Or am I in too much of a hurry?)
"THEY",
I definitely think volcanoes provide another mechanism for dissipation of the Earth's internal energy, much like earthquakes. Seismic resonances as a result of earthquakes could logically trigger magma movement, specifically outward through the crust... the two are undeniably linked.
But TRoc probably knows best
I definitely think volcanoes provide another mechanism for dissipation of the Earth's internal energy, much like earthquakes. Seismic resonances as a result of earthquakes could logically trigger magma movement, specifically outward through the crust... the two are undeniably linked.
But TRoc probably knows best
Hi all,
(add in for THEY): not really a "direct link", but related, I'm sure. Like a fault line, there is energy stored in magma chambers. The right "trigger" would cause the release. I think most commonly, an EQ near a volcano is signaling movement of magma; on the other hand, a non-movement related EQ could cause a shift & release. Also see below for related info.
Report:
First, on Dec 28th, we had an unusual coronal hole formation.
(NASA/Stereo Science Center)
This was unusual because it was "fast", both in formation, and dissipation. It does not appear at all on either the "behind", nor the "ahead" satellite photos.
Typically, when there is "higher activity" (by my method), we are dealing with solar winds at average speeds of ~550 km/s (3 day travel time). Right now, we are in a "low to normal" period (since my last report, before the 28th). In EQ terms, this results in 6 or fewer quakes of 5+ mag per day, and having breaks (in days) between 6+ mag quakes. This has been the case over the last week.
However, our average SW speed during this low period is ~400 km/s. This extends the travel time by one day. So, at 4 days from our "anomalous" CH, the "CHEP" (CH Energy Packet) plots to an area from ~70W lat (coast of S. America) to about 175W (Tonga), and from the equator, down to ~30S long. This is quite a large CH, and oddly shaped, but because of the "fast anomaly", the normal time parameter can't be applied to what would have (under normal formation/dissipation times) been 2 to 3 days existing already, prior to the 28th. In other words, part of the CHEP had an "upwind" angle, and could arrive much earlier (by days). There is a clear partition between this "upwind" portion, and the center. This results in a particular phase, which is also "modulated" by the Earth's rotation (day/night). Also, there is a "trailing" portion, that would be just beyond (east) the zone described above
So, that defines our "hot-zone", and the time frames.
What we ended up with is this:
MAP 5.5 2007/12/28 21:59:42 -19.434 -173.977 35.0 TONGA
(11:59:42 AM at epicenter )
25 hrs later
MAP 5.2 2007/12/29 20:55:21 -19.804 -173.779 10.0 TONGA
(10:55:20 AM at epicenter )
9 1/2 hrs later
MAP 5.7 2007/12/30 06:24:03 -19.390 -173.866 37.5 TONGA
*(08:24:02 PM at epicenter )
then we have:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:59:03 -14.719 -75.374 32.3 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:39:44 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:39:44 -14.747 -75.349 28.0 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:59:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 18:23:37 41.217 71.818 17.2 EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
+(11:23:37 PM at epicenter )
and 12 hrs later
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.346 72.939 37.5 KYRGYZSTAN
(12:32:33 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(05:13:08 AM at epicenter )
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(04:55:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 23:26:58 -15.855 -72.817 59.8 SOUTHERN PERU
*(06:26:57 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 11:44:54 -23.669 -114.840 10.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
*(03:44:54 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 08:42:27 -23.122 -70.586 37.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
*(05:42:27 AM at epicenter )
and, finishing up
MAP 5.4 2008/01/03 11:15:49 -5.925 122.705 10.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2008/01/03 10:58:18 -5.121 152.108 35.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
During this time frame (12/28/07 22:00 UTC to current), I have only left off 2 EQ's in Alaska/Aleutian Is. (because they are after shocks to 7.2), and these 2:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/29 11:20:04 15.307 122.833 10.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2007/12/30 06:42:40 37.633 21.040 10.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
This covers ALL EQ's >5 mag during this time. Data from: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php.
Now, let's look at some other details. From above, marked with " * ": this is to address the question, "do the EQ's only occur directly in line with the Sun/arrival of CHEPs?" The answer is no; the energy "enters" the Earth in that manner, but can travel through, and exit in different, but related areas, via fault lines. The relation is with P-wave (and S-wave) travel behavior.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/glossa...mID=170&alpha=S
This is one of the primary pieces of evidence for a liquid core. While not contrary to this idea, it may also be possible that the "shadow zone" is caused (not measured) because of the type of energy entering these areas, during EQ wave calculations.
We have Alfven waves (or other MHD) arriving in the SW, and by my hypothesis, entering Earth, and delivering energy. See Mysterious Solar Ripples Detected
30 August 2007 http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/070830_sun_waves.html
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
Five satellites launched last February to probe magnetic storms around the Earth will move into prime observing position next month, but they already have produced important new information on the interactions between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field.
..
"The substorm behaved quite unexpectedly," said THEMIS principal investigator Vassilis Angelopoulos, an associate professor of earth and space sciences at UCLA and a research physicist at UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Laboratory. "The auroras surged westward twice as fast as anyone thought possible, crossing 15 degrees of longitude in less than one minute. The storm traversed an entire polar time zone, or 400 miles, in 60 seconds flat."
..
Angelopoulos said he was quite impressed with the substorm's power and estimated the total energy of the two-hour event at 500,000 billion Joules. That's equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake. Where does all that energy come from? THEMIS may have found the answer.
..
THEMIS also has observed a number of explosions in Earth's magnetic bow shock. "The bow shock is like the bow wave in front of a boat," explained Sibeck. "It is where the solar wind first feels the effects of Earth's magnetic field. Sometimes a burst of electrical current within the solar wind will hit the bow shock and -bang! We get an explosion."
..These so-called "hot flow anomalies" occur when a discontinuity in the solar magnetic field - evidenced by an electrical current - hits the bowshock and decelerates from a million miles per hour to a dead stop. The area of plasma heats rapidly by a factor of 10 to as much as 10 million degrees Celsius, exploding in a burst of energy..
(the following quotes taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamics , and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_%28physics%29 )
"The connection between magnetic field lines and fluid in ideal MHD fixes the topology of the magnetic field in the fluid -- for example, if a set of magnetic field lines are tied into a knot, then they will remain so as long as the fluid/plasma has negligible resistivity. This difficulty in reconnecting magnetic field lines makes it possible to store energy by moving the fluid or the source of the magnetic field. The energy can then become available if the conditions for ideal MHD break down, allowing magnetic reconnection that releases the stored energy from the magnetic field."
"Magnetic reconnection in highly conductive systems is important because it concentrates energy in time and space, so that gentle forces applied to a plasma for long periods of time can cause violent explosions and bursts of radiation."
Birkeland currents, "cell" structure/sheets, and plasma filaments play a role; "From the cosmological point of view, the most important new space research discovery is probably the cellular structure of space. As has been seen, in every region of space which is accessible to in situ measurements, there are a number of 'cell walls', sheets of electric currents, which divide space into compartments with different magnetization, temperature, density, etc ." (Hannes Alfven) You can see this in my last post, with the circular relationship between the ionosphere, plasma sheets, and weather.
Also from above EQ list, where I marked with " + ", to show a proposed "dark side" reconnection (magneto-tail).
Take a look at some charts for P-wave travel times, and the "pode / antipode" and shadow zone relationships, for the aforementioned quakes.
Tonga
KYRGYZSTAN/UZBEKISTAN
Greece
continued..
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
regards,
T.Roc
I know this may be a little off topic but have you seen this hole in Guatemala?
I believe it to be earthquake connected...what do you think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QT46LGcz9w
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
You might want to get the attention of Michael Mozina, he has been posting in another thread about the Sun, and seems to really know his stuff.
Ooops!
That's what I get for posting so late at night. MISTAKES!
Let me try again.
That pic was Jan 10, 2008 @ 23:48 UTC
The ave SW speed (from 00:00 Jan 11 to 08:00 Jan 14) was 495 km/s.
check - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
That figures to ~3.3 days (not 4, or ~420 hrs).
As usual, I use whatever "short-cuts" I can find. Helping with the "gears" between the Earth & Sun, as well as "auto tilt" for seasonal axis change, I use "Earth and Moon Viewer" , by John Walker - http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth.
That puts the "from the Sun" view (equator) at 21S 50E. The CH is below the Solar equator by about 10°, so we need to adjust that to ~31S 50E, with an expected time near 08:48 UTC (12:48 local).
I don't mind making mistakes, or having to change from "prediction" to "review"; but I don't like the appearance of "cooking the books".
I say that because of this:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/14 01:20:03 -35.438 53.847 10.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
It is, obviously, on the "dark side", but the location is very good. This is why SW speed alone can not fine tune this postulate. The state of the IMF, like polar angle and azimuth, to estimate what kind of reconnection we were having at that time. This is where the dials are needed. http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html
I don't have that data for that time period.
I will talk about this some more, as well as review the other events, when I get a bit more time.
regards,
T.Roc
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Lord, man! For what it's worth, everybody learns that the hard way. I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary. I hope the data-recovery folks don't bend you over too badly!
Edit: As a matter of fact, I think I'll do a network wide backup this weekend, because... Just because.
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
It seems to happen when people need everything they have to continue their research or keep track of contacts.
Any suggestions on the best back system to use?
I have seen web sites with data back up, however I wonder if a personal back up is better.
I have not backed up in 15 years, so I hope to learn before failing this class.
(add in for THEY): not really a "direct link", but related, I'm sure. Like a fault line, there is energy stored in magma chambers. The right "trigger" would cause the release. I think most commonly, an EQ near a volcano is signaling movement of magma; on the other hand, a non-movement related EQ could cause a shift & release. Also see below for related info.
Report:
First, on Dec 28th, we had an unusual coronal hole formation.
(NASA/Stereo Science Center)
This was unusual because it was "fast", both in formation, and dissipation. It does not appear at all on either the "behind", nor the "ahead" satellite photos.
Typically, when there is "higher activity" (by my method), we are dealing with solar winds at average speeds of ~550 km/s (3 day travel time). Right now, we are in a "low to normal" period (since my last report, before the 28th). In EQ terms, this results in 6 or fewer quakes of 5+ mag per day, and having breaks (in days) between 6+ mag quakes. This has been the case over the last week.
However, our average SW speed during this low period is ~400 km/s. This extends the travel time by one day. So, at 4 days from our "anomalous" CH, the "CHEP" (CH Energy Packet) plots to an area from ~70W lat (coast of S. America) to about 175W (Tonga), and from the equator, down to ~30S long. This is quite a large CH, and oddly shaped, but because of the "fast anomaly", the normal time parameter can't be applied to what would have (under normal formation/dissipation times) been 2 to 3 days existing already, prior to the 28th. In other words, part of the CHEP had an "upwind" angle, and could arrive much earlier (by days). There is a clear partition between this "upwind" portion, and the center. This results in a particular phase, which is also "modulated" by the Earth's rotation (day/night). Also, there is a "trailing" portion, that would be just beyond (east) the zone described above
So, that defines our "hot-zone", and the time frames.
What we ended up with is this:
MAP 5.5 2007/12/28 21:59:42 -19.434 -173.977 35.0 TONGA
(11:59:42 AM at epicenter )
25 hrs later
MAP 5.2 2007/12/29 20:55:21 -19.804 -173.779 10.0 TONGA
(10:55:20 AM at epicenter )
9 1/2 hrs later
MAP 5.7 2007/12/30 06:24:03 -19.390 -173.866 37.5 TONGA
*(08:24:02 PM at epicenter )
then we have:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:59:03 -14.719 -75.374 32.3 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:39:44 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:39:44 -14.747 -75.349 28.0 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:59:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 18:23:37 41.217 71.818 17.2 EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
+(11:23:37 PM at epicenter )
and 12 hrs later
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.346 72.939 37.5 KYRGYZSTAN
(12:32:33 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(05:13:08 AM at epicenter )
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(04:55:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 23:26:58 -15.855 -72.817 59.8 SOUTHERN PERU
*(06:26:57 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 11:44:54 -23.669 -114.840 10.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
*(03:44:54 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 08:42:27 -23.122 -70.586 37.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
*(05:42:27 AM at epicenter )
and, finishing up
MAP 5.4 2008/01/03 11:15:49 -5.925 122.705 10.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2008/01/03 10:58:18 -5.121 152.108 35.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
During this time frame (12/28/07 22:00 UTC to current), I have only left off 2 EQ's in Alaska/Aleutian Is. (because they are after shocks to 7.2), and these 2:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/29 11:20:04 15.307 122.833 10.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2007/12/30 06:42:40 37.633 21.040 10.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
This covers ALL EQ's >5 mag during this time. Data from: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php.
Now, let's look at some other details. From above, marked with " * ": this is to address the question, "do the EQ's only occur directly in line with the Sun/arrival of CHEPs?" The answer is no; the energy "enters" the Earth in that manner, but can travel through, and exit in different, but related areas, via fault lines. The relation is with P-wave (and S-wave) travel behavior.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/glossa...mID=170&alpha=S
This is one of the primary pieces of evidence for a liquid core. While not contrary to this idea, it may also be possible that the "shadow zone" is caused (not measured) because of the type of energy entering these areas, during EQ wave calculations.
We have Alfven waves (or other MHD) arriving in the SW, and by my hypothesis, entering Earth, and delivering energy. See Mysterious Solar Ripples Detected
30 August 2007 http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/070830_sun_waves.html
QUOTE
Mysterious waves that help transport the sun's energy out into space have been detected by scientists for the first time.
..
"Alfven waves can provide us with a window into processes that are fundamental to the workings of the sun and its impacts on Earth," said Steve Tomczyk, a space scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
..
"Alfven waves can provide us with a window into processes that are fundamental to the workings of the sun and its impacts on Earth," said Steve Tomczyk, a space scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Mysterious waves that help transport the sun's energy out into space have been detected by scientists for the first time. .. "Alfven waves can provide us with a window into processes that are fundamental to the workings of the sun and its impacts on Earth," said Steve Tomczyk, a space scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). |
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
Five satellites launched last February to probe magnetic storms around the Earth will move into prime observing position next month, but they already have produced important new information on the interactions between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field.
..
"The substorm behaved quite unexpectedly," said THEMIS principal investigator Vassilis Angelopoulos, an associate professor of earth and space sciences at UCLA and a research physicist at UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Laboratory. "The auroras surged westward twice as fast as anyone thought possible, crossing 15 degrees of longitude in less than one minute. The storm traversed an entire polar time zone, or 400 miles, in 60 seconds flat."
..
Angelopoulos said he was quite impressed with the substorm's power and estimated the total energy of the two-hour event at 500,000 billion Joules. That's equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake. Where does all that energy come from? THEMIS may have found the answer.
..
THEMIS also has observed a number of explosions in Earth's magnetic bow shock. "The bow shock is like the bow wave in front of a boat," explained Sibeck. "It is where the solar wind first feels the effects of Earth's magnetic field. Sometimes a burst of electrical current within the solar wind will hit the bow shock and -bang! We get an explosion."
..These so-called "hot flow anomalies" occur when a discontinuity in the solar magnetic field - evidenced by an electrical current - hits the bowshock and decelerates from a million miles per hour to a dead stop. The area of plasma heats rapidly by a factor of 10 to as much as 10 million degrees Celsius, exploding in a burst of energy..
(the following quotes taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamics , and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_%28physics%29 )
"The connection between magnetic field lines and fluid in ideal MHD fixes the topology of the magnetic field in the fluid -- for example, if a set of magnetic field lines are tied into a knot, then they will remain so as long as the fluid/plasma has negligible resistivity. This difficulty in reconnecting magnetic field lines makes it possible to store energy by moving the fluid or the source of the magnetic field. The energy can then become available if the conditions for ideal MHD break down, allowing magnetic reconnection that releases the stored energy from the magnetic field."
"Magnetic reconnection in highly conductive systems is important because it concentrates energy in time and space, so that gentle forces applied to a plasma for long periods of time can cause violent explosions and bursts of radiation."
Birkeland currents, "cell" structure/sheets, and plasma filaments play a role; "From the cosmological point of view, the most important new space research discovery is probably the cellular structure of space. As has been seen, in every region of space which is accessible to in situ measurements, there are a number of 'cell walls', sheets of electric currents, which divide space into compartments with different magnetization, temperature, density, etc ." (Hannes Alfven) You can see this in my last post, with the circular relationship between the ionosphere, plasma sheets, and weather.
Also from above EQ list, where I marked with " + ", to show a proposed "dark side" reconnection (magneto-tail).
Take a look at some charts for P-wave travel times, and the "pode / antipode" and shadow zone relationships, for the aforementioned quakes.
Tonga
KYRGYZSTAN/UZBEKISTAN
Greece
continued..
..continued
Peru/Chile
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php) select event, click "Scientific & Technical", then click "Theoretical P-Wave Travel Times"
With these charts, you can see a little clearer, the over-all pattern, as well as the (proposed) “phase timing” of tail reconnection events, and how they harmonically mesh with incoming energy, via MHD waves bound in the SW.
Also, a little closer to home: not on the above list was a 4.8 centered near Curico’, Chile (34.8° S , 71.2° W ), on Jan 1, 2008, which I personally felt. (http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/sisnac.pl...01&id_tipo=0&R=)
On that same day, and “right on time”, based on the ~400km/s SW speed, 2 Volcanoes (SANGAY in Ecuador 2.002°S, 78.341°W, and LLAIMA in Chile 38.692°S, 71.729°W) went onto the “New Activity/Unrest” list at http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
.
Also “right on time”, expecting a “bump” in SW speed on Jan 1, 2008:
, which you can see here, along with a rise in SW temp, and magnetic changes. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html )
So, as to “THEY’s” question, these two events are quite close in location (3°) and time, which seems “related”. I don't think that this was magma flow, but we are left with the possibility.
Smoke rises from the Llaima volcano, located some 850 km (528 miles) south of Santiago, Jan. 1, 2008. The Llaima volcano in southern Chile erupted on Tuesday, sending a huge plume of smoke into the air, but there were no reports of damages or injuries, emergency officials said. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Jan. 2, 2008 (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Regards,
T.Roc
Peru/Chile
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php) select event, click "Scientific & Technical", then click "Theoretical P-Wave Travel Times"
With these charts, you can see a little clearer, the over-all pattern, as well as the (proposed) “phase timing” of tail reconnection events, and how they harmonically mesh with incoming energy, via MHD waves bound in the SW.
Also, a little closer to home: not on the above list was a 4.8 centered near Curico’, Chile (34.8° S , 71.2° W ), on Jan 1, 2008, which I personally felt. (http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/sisnac.pl...01&id_tipo=0&R=)
On that same day, and “right on time”, based on the ~400km/s SW speed, 2 Volcanoes (SANGAY in Ecuador 2.002°S, 78.341°W, and LLAIMA in Chile 38.692°S, 71.729°W) went onto the “New Activity/Unrest” list at http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
.
Also “right on time”, expecting a “bump” in SW speed on Jan 1, 2008:
, which you can see here, along with a rise in SW temp, and magnetic changes. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html )So, as to “THEY’s” question, these two events are quite close in location (3°) and time, which seems “related”. I don't think that this was magma flow, but we are left with the possibility.
Smoke rises from the Llaima volcano, located some 850 km (528 miles) south of Santiago, Jan. 1, 2008. The Llaima volcano in southern Chile erupted on Tuesday, sending a huge plume of smoke into the air, but there were no reports of damages or injuries, emergency officials said. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Jan. 2, 2008 (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Regards,
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Jan 3 2008, 01:39 PM)
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
regards,
T.Roc
I know this may be a little off topic but have you seen this hole in Guatemala?
I believe it to be earthquake connected...what do you think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QT46LGcz9w
Hi tikay,
Well, I am having a hard time imagining the connection to EQs, but if you have something... I'm listening.
Seems more water related, but I don't buy the "plumbing" problem explanation (not entirely). Maybe some "percolating" of a pocket of water for a long time?
What were those worms called in Dune?
ciao.
T.Roc
QUOTE
I believe it to be earthquake connected...what do you think?
Well, I am having a hard time imagining the connection to EQs, but if you have something... I'm listening.
Seems more water related, but I don't buy the "plumbing" problem explanation (not entirely). Maybe some "percolating" of a pocket of water for a long time?
What were those worms called in Dune?
ciao.
T.Roc
Okay I'll admit I have nothing...to connect it to EQs. I surrender!
I was always at your mercy...and I never read or saw Dune, so again...LOST!
I just thought to big/deep to be a water or water pipes problem. The circular shape is curious, maybe the two who fell in were Alice and her sister?
I was always at your mercy...and I never read or saw Dune, so again...LOST!
I just thought to big/deep to be a water or water pipes problem. The circular shape is curious, maybe the two who fell in were Alice and her sister?
Hi all,
tikay pulled a "Frenchman's Bluff" (ending with full surrender)
I linked the wrong (or bad idea) chart in the last "report" post. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html ) This chart will be irrelevant in a few days, because it "auto-adjusts" to the current date. I should have linked to the fixed table: December , and January (08) .
The important thing to note, is a high point (@ 04:00) of 393 (km/s) on an "acceleration curve"(ac), and the low point (@ 19:00) of 347 on a "deceleration curve"(dc). This method is "daily averages"; the "true" low point was at 23:00, but the dc extended well into Jan 02, to the low of 326. The correlation to the >5 mag events on Jan 01 is a very good fit:
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/01 06:34:02 -6.220 103.602 35.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.334 72.960 41.1 KYRGYZSTAN
Also worth noting, is the ion temp curves match well to the bulk speed curves, with the ac-dc peaks occurring about 2 hrs prior to the bulk speed peaks.
I will keep saying this throughout, so it is not overlooked: I am very confident that these patterns I am pointing out will lead to both a new understanding of "EQ energy", in a SEC manner, and a method by which to predict earthquakes. The details are still being "ironed out". Changing my data sources (as I have done several times over the past 2 years) both has resulted in more accurate details, and a change in descriptive terms. I hope no one is discouraged by the latter.
I was a bit under the weather for the past 24 hrs, so I missed the opportunity for "prediction", and now can only give a "report" style post. Both are good in the long run; the data speaks for itself.
Our "low activity" period ended on 01/04/2008, and we started a "high activity" period on 1/5/08. This is the result of a coronal hole that developed on Dec 31, 2007. (and more CH's directly following, including a flare)
Here, I am showing the CH on Dec 31, 2007. The method that I use, is to find the time when the CH is dead-center. Using these photos (EUV 195), visual estimations are the only choice. The center of this, by estimation, was 1/2 way between 12/31 & 01/01 (both were taken at ~23:48), with the mid-point being just slightly closer to Dec 31. The mid-point would be ~11:48 Jan 1, and subtracting ~ 2 hrs to push the center closer to the 31st of Dec. , so roughly 09:48 . Also note a small CH just below, and to the right, or ahead in time.
The SW during the days following these CH's was low, as noted. The average, I calculated to be ~330 km/s, which translates to 5 days (120 hrs) travel time. This gives us our "alert", to look at SW activity on Jan 5, and also to expect a rise in activity on the 4th as well. For those interested in the specific calculation: Distance from Sun to Earth = 1.439e8 km / SW velocity / 60 / 60 / 24 . Also, keep in mind this is not a "straight shot", we have a spiral phase:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_spiral
So, here is the >5 mag activity for 1/4/08:
MAP 5.9 2008/01/04 07:29:18 -2.775 101.031 35.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.7 2008/01/04 01:26:28 -21.408 -68.237 89.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
These locations are very close to antipodal, in the context of P-wave travel modes.
The main CH feature, centered @ 09:48 Jan 01. 2008, aligns with ~23 S 33 W ; with the "group velocity", or SW ave speed calculating to 5 days, this puts the CHEP arriving on Jan 6. However, keep in mind the interactive MHD spiral form, and the change in SW speeds, on a micro scale (by hours or minutes, vs days), is similar to a "phase velocity". We can expect certain energetic components of the wave to arrive "off phase" ( +/- 1 day).
So, let's take a look at Jan 5, 2008 SW data (bulk speed): http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
On a "low activity" day, like the analysis early in this post, the "curves" suffice to show the pattern. However, on a higher activity day, we can just look for sharp changes in velocity; "accelerations/de-accelerations" are what is important.
Here are the "top 4" changes in SW bulk speed, for 1/5:
Period........Change ( in km/sec )
09:00 - 10:00 -39
07:00 - 08:00 +31
21:00 - 22:00 +28
10:00 - 11:00 +22
Since 2 of these top 4 changes occur in our "window", this should lead to the "top activity" in terms of EQ's.
Here is all >5 mag EQ on Jan 05, 2008:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/05 20:01:56 5.471 94.695 69.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 12:00:20 51.550 -130.795 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:44:48 51.171 -130.556 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:01:05 51.299 -130.713 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 10:39:15 51.396 -130.252 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 09:13:34 14.198 124.475 69.9 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.9 2008/01/05 07:29:34 -22.737 -68.367 102.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 5.3 2008/01/05 06:18:48 14.229 124.595 35.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 06:02:26 14.281 124.594 39.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 01:56:51 14.191 -91.407 108.7 GUATEMALA
(USGS)
Again, we get a very good agreement between SW speed, and EQ activity.
The top quake for the day, has this P-wave antipode map:
(neic.usgs.gov)
which agrees with the location of the estimated arrival point, ~23 S 33 W . (antipodal)
The other EQ's all have "matches", similar in concept to spherical harmonics:
GUATEMALA
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
and
(continued)
tikay pulled a "Frenchman's Bluff" (ending with full surrender)
I linked the wrong (or bad idea) chart in the last "report" post. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html ) This chart will be irrelevant in a few days, because it "auto-adjusts" to the current date. I should have linked to the fixed table: December , and January (08) .
The important thing to note, is a high point (@ 04:00) of 393 (km/s) on an "acceleration curve"(ac), and the low point (@ 19:00) of 347 on a "deceleration curve"(dc). This method is "daily averages"; the "true" low point was at 23:00, but the dc extended well into Jan 02, to the low of 326. The correlation to the >5 mag events on Jan 01 is a very good fit:
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/01 06:34:02 -6.220 103.602 35.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.334 72.960 41.1 KYRGYZSTAN
Also worth noting, is the ion temp curves match well to the bulk speed curves, with the ac-dc peaks occurring about 2 hrs prior to the bulk speed peaks.
I will keep saying this throughout, so it is not overlooked: I am very confident that these patterns I am pointing out will lead to both a new understanding of "EQ energy", in a SEC manner, and a method by which to predict earthquakes. The details are still being "ironed out". Changing my data sources (as I have done several times over the past 2 years) both has resulted in more accurate details, and a change in descriptive terms. I hope no one is discouraged by the latter.
I was a bit under the weather for the past 24 hrs, so I missed the opportunity for "prediction", and now can only give a "report" style post. Both are good in the long run; the data speaks for itself.
Our "low activity" period ended on 01/04/2008, and we started a "high activity" period on 1/5/08. This is the result of a coronal hole that developed on Dec 31, 2007. (and more CH's directly following, including a flare)
Here, I am showing the CH on Dec 31, 2007. The method that I use, is to find the time when the CH is dead-center. Using these photos (EUV 195), visual estimations are the only choice. The center of this, by estimation, was 1/2 way between 12/31 & 01/01 (both were taken at ~23:48), with the mid-point being just slightly closer to Dec 31. The mid-point would be ~11:48 Jan 1, and subtracting ~ 2 hrs to push the center closer to the 31st of Dec. , so roughly 09:48 . Also note a small CH just below, and to the right, or ahead in time.
The SW during the days following these CH's was low, as noted. The average, I calculated to be ~330 km/s, which translates to 5 days (120 hrs) travel time. This gives us our "alert", to look at SW activity on Jan 5, and also to expect a rise in activity on the 4th as well. For those interested in the specific calculation: Distance from Sun to Earth = 1.439e8 km / SW velocity / 60 / 60 / 24 . Also, keep in mind this is not a "straight shot", we have a spiral phase:
QUOTE
The spiral shape is similar to the pattern produced by a spinning lawn sprinkler, for similar reasons: the solar wind travels outward from the Sun at a uniform rate, but an individual jet of solar wind from a particular feature on the Sun's surface rotates with the solar rotation, making a spiral pattern in space. Unlike the jet from a sprinkler, the solar wind is tied to the magnetic field by MHD effects, so that magnetic field lines are tied to the material in the jet and take on an arithmetic spiral shape.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_spiral
So, here is the >5 mag activity for 1/4/08:
MAP 5.9 2008/01/04 07:29:18 -2.775 101.031 35.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.7 2008/01/04 01:26:28 -21.408 -68.237 89.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
These locations are very close to antipodal, in the context of P-wave travel modes.
The main CH feature, centered @ 09:48 Jan 01. 2008, aligns with ~23 S 33 W ; with the "group velocity", or SW ave speed calculating to 5 days, this puts the CHEP arriving on Jan 6. However, keep in mind the interactive MHD spiral form, and the change in SW speeds, on a micro scale (by hours or minutes, vs days), is similar to a "phase velocity". We can expect certain energetic components of the wave to arrive "off phase" ( +/- 1 day).
So, let's take a look at Jan 5, 2008 SW data (bulk speed): http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
On a "low activity" day, like the analysis early in this post, the "curves" suffice to show the pattern. However, on a higher activity day, we can just look for sharp changes in velocity; "accelerations/de-accelerations" are what is important.
Here are the "top 4" changes in SW bulk speed, for 1/5:
Period........Change ( in km/sec )
09:00 - 10:00 -39
07:00 - 08:00 +31
21:00 - 22:00 +28
10:00 - 11:00 +22
Since 2 of these top 4 changes occur in our "window", this should lead to the "top activity" in terms of EQ's.
Here is all >5 mag EQ on Jan 05, 2008:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/05 20:01:56 5.471 94.695 69.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 12:00:20 51.550 -130.795 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:44:48 51.171 -130.556 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:01:05 51.299 -130.713 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 10:39:15 51.396 -130.252 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 09:13:34 14.198 124.475 69.9 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.9 2008/01/05 07:29:34 -22.737 -68.367 102.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 5.3 2008/01/05 06:18:48 14.229 124.595 35.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 06:02:26 14.281 124.594 39.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 01:56:51 14.191 -91.407 108.7 GUATEMALA
(USGS)
Again, we get a very good agreement between SW speed, and EQ activity.
The top quake for the day, has this P-wave antipode map:
(neic.usgs.gov)
which agrees with the location of the estimated arrival point, ~23 S 33 W . (antipodal)
The other EQ's all have "matches", similar in concept to spherical harmonics:
GUATEMALA
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
and
(continued)
continued..
CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
As for today (01/06/08), we have a set of "aftershocks" (SW phase) in the same locations, except for one (as of Update time = Sun Jan 6 17:13:07 UTC 2008)
SOUTHERN GREECE
MAP 6.1 2008/01/06 05:14:17 37.150 22.934 50.9 SOUTHERN GREECE
This one stands apart, and I find no correlating CH. So, I will "predict" that we get a >5 mag quake in its' antipodal region. Somewhere in a circular area near 40 S 160 W, by the end of today.
regards,
T.Roc
CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
As for today (01/06/08), we have a set of "aftershocks" (SW phase) in the same locations, except for one (as of Update time = Sun Jan 6 17:13:07 UTC 2008)
SOUTHERN GREECE
MAP 6.1 2008/01/06 05:14:17 37.150 22.934 50.9 SOUTHERN GREECE
This one stands apart, and I find no correlating CH. So, I will "predict" that we get a >5 mag quake in its' antipodal region. Somewhere in a circular area near 40 S 160 W, by the end of today.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
I'm used to getting the "raspberry" for magnitude estimations.
I get another one.
the good part:
MAP 4.9 2008/01/06 18:30:06 -18.245 -177.927 515.9 FIJI REGION
ciao,
T.Roc
I'm used to getting the "raspberry" for magnitude estimations.
I get another one.
the good part:
MAP 4.9 2008/01/06 18:30:06 -18.245 -177.927 515.9 FIJI REGION
ciao,
T.Roc
Hi all,
I'm going to be gone for a few days, so I'm going to miss the next round of events.
High activity to continue for the next week.
Coronal Holes (CH)
4-Jan-2008
Since the SW speed is up to 600+ km/s, the transit time is down to 2.5 days. The above CH is already here. Not the stronger part.
5-Jan-2008
Notice the upper CH opened up quite a bit. That one looks to be headed for N.E. Africa.
6-Jan-2008
The flare creates faster SW speeds than a CH; it will catch up to, and pass the "CHEP" (and modulate). This gives an extra shock wave. This concept is a CIR, co-rotating interacting region; it should produce more activity.
There will be plenty to do when I return.
regards,
T.Roc
I'm going to be gone for a few days, so I'm going to miss the next round of events.
High activity to continue for the next week.
Coronal Holes (CH)
4-Jan-2008
Since the SW speed is up to 600+ km/s, the transit time is down to 2.5 days. The above CH is already here. Not the stronger part.
5-Jan-2008
Notice the upper CH opened up quite a bit. That one looks to be headed for N.E. Africa.
6-Jan-2008
The flare creates faster SW speeds than a CH; it will catch up to, and pass the "CHEP" (and modulate). This gives an extra shock wave. This concept is a CIR, co-rotating interacting region; it should produce more activity.
There will be plenty to do when I return.
regards,
T.Roc
Interesting article, you probably are somewhat aware of this (not really a new idea) but just something extra to think about when predicting.
Livescience article
Livescience article
Hi all,
Thanks THEY, for the article link. I also found a "related story" linked to it.
I'm too tired for a full review, but wanted to post the results of this prediction: "N.E. Africa", that I made on the 7th.
MAP 4.8 2008/01/09 22:24:05 35.769 -0.531 15.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA
That one "looks good on paper", but this one:
MAP 6.4 2008/01/09 08:26:46 32.315 85.179 10.0 WESTERN XIZANG
is a better fit, by my method. When it occurred, it was close to noon in N.E. Africa (at the same latitude), the "hot spot". Direct hit; scattered energy waves. The 4.8 was an "exit wound", happening close to mid-night, local time. Good symmetry; good example of "lensing" performed by the Earth's magnetosphere.
Unlike the recent S Hemisphere "antipodal" relationships, this CHEP was above the equator (~35 N), and was "refracted" downwards, parallel with the equator. This is a "seasonal" effect, due to the angle of the equator, in relation to the Sun.
regards,
T.Roc
Thanks THEY, for the article link. I also found a "related story" linked to it.
I'm too tired for a full review, but wanted to post the results of this prediction: "N.E. Africa", that I made on the 7th.
MAP 4.8 2008/01/09 22:24:05 35.769 -0.531 15.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA
That one "looks good on paper", but this one:
MAP 6.4 2008/01/09 08:26:46 32.315 85.179 10.0 WESTERN XIZANG
is a better fit, by my method. When it occurred, it was close to noon in N.E. Africa (at the same latitude), the "hot spot". Direct hit; scattered energy waves. The 4.8 was an "exit wound", happening close to mid-night, local time. Good symmetry; good example of "lensing" performed by the Earth's magnetosphere.
Unlike the recent S Hemisphere "antipodal" relationships, this CHEP was above the equator (~35 N), and was "refracted" downwards, parallel with the equator. This is a "seasonal" effect, due to the angle of the equator, in relation to the Sun.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
The EQ activity derived from the CH's shown above (Jan 4 - 6) has "played out". We are back in the "saddle", or low period, for now. The >5 activity was a little lower than expected; we would need to "lower the bar" to >4.8, in order to get the number of quakes per day (based on CH activity) to what was expected (as "higher" period). The definition of "high" or "low" is arbitrary, though.
Glancing at the global weather, we had very windy conditions experienced, as well as "severity".
The general case, of relating large changes/fluctuations in SW speed to EQ activity, was shown again on Jan 6. The largest fluctuation was in the period of 05:00 - 06:00, at +24 km/s, and the largest EQ for the day, was a 6.1 at 05:14:17 (SOUTHERN GREECE).
However, this general relationship is not "always" true. There is not a 100% correlation of "every large fluctuation generates an EQ". This is especially true, when the SW speed is at higher levels, as was seen on Jan 7. The Flare shown in the post above, not only produced a peak for the several days covered in this forecast (706 km/s), but "modulated" the SW created by the CH's.
When a Flare comes behind (after) a CH, it tends to cause "destructive interference", and smoothes out fluctuations (the "eye" of the CIR). This lines up with the "dip" in activity the latter part of Jan 7, and Jan 8. The response of the magnetosphere (MS) "contracts" to this bulk speed increase as well, and may be able to dissipate "CHEPS's" more efficiently, or "outwardly".
If a Flare comes before a CH, a "constructive interference" seems to occur. If you think of the "dead zone" directly behind a jet, then you can imagine the MS "relaxing" a bit, only to get slammed by the CH produced "energy packet", or "burst" fluctuation.
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
The EQ activity derived from the CH's shown above (Jan 4 - 6) has "played out". We are back in the "saddle", or low period, for now. The >5 activity was a little lower than expected; we would need to "lower the bar" to >4.8, in order to get the number of quakes per day (based on CH activity) to what was expected (as "higher" period). The definition of "high" or "low" is arbitrary, though.
Glancing at the global weather, we had very windy conditions experienced, as well as "severity".
The general case, of relating large changes/fluctuations in SW speed to EQ activity, was shown again on Jan 6. The largest fluctuation was in the period of 05:00 - 06:00, at +24 km/s, and the largest EQ for the day, was a 6.1 at 05:14:17 (SOUTHERN GREECE).
However, this general relationship is not "always" true. There is not a 100% correlation of "every large fluctuation generates an EQ". This is especially true, when the SW speed is at higher levels, as was seen on Jan 7. The Flare shown in the post above, not only produced a peak for the several days covered in this forecast (706 km/s), but "modulated" the SW created by the CH's.
When a Flare comes behind (after) a CH, it tends to cause "destructive interference", and smoothes out fluctuations (the "eye" of the CIR). This lines up with the "dip" in activity the latter part of Jan 7, and Jan 8. The response of the magnetosphere (MS) "contracts" to this bulk speed increase as well, and may be able to dissipate "CHEPS's" more efficiently, or "outwardly".
If a Flare comes before a CH, a "constructive interference" seems to occur. If you think of the "dead zone" directly behind a jet, then you can imagine the MS "relaxing" a bit, only to get slammed by the CH produced "energy packet", or "burst" fluctuation.
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Jan 11 2008, 07:01 AM)
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
You might want to get the attention of Michael Mozina, he has been posting in another thread about the Sun, and seems to really know his stuff.
Just that it seems like your research is unprecedented and it is very interesting to me!
(keep up the good work!)
(keep up the good work!)
Hi all,
Thanks soundhertz, and THEY, for the tips.
The slower period should end today. (Jan 14)
(stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov)
That is Jan 10; ave SW speed since then ~420 km/s.
That puts it arriving to Earth today, in the area of Tonga - Fiji, at "high noon".
regards,
T.Roc
Thanks soundhertz, and THEY, for the tips.
The slower period should end today. (Jan 14)
(stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov)
That is Jan 10; ave SW speed since then ~420 km/s.
That puts it arriving to Earth today, in the area of Tonga - Fiji, at "high noon".
regards,
T.Roc
Ooops!
That's what I get for posting so late at night. MISTAKES!
Let me try again.
That pic was Jan 10, 2008 @ 23:48 UTC
The ave SW speed (from 00:00 Jan 11 to 08:00 Jan 14) was 495 km/s.
check - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
That figures to ~3.3 days (not 4, or ~420 hrs).
As usual, I use whatever "short-cuts" I can find. Helping with the "gears" between the Earth & Sun, as well as "auto tilt" for seasonal axis change, I use "Earth and Moon Viewer" , by John Walker - http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth.
That puts the "from the Sun" view (equator) at 21S 50E. The CH is below the Solar equator by about 10°, so we need to adjust that to ~31S 50E, with an expected time near 08:48 UTC (12:48 local).
I don't mind making mistakes, or having to change from "prediction" to "review"; but I don't like the appearance of "cooking the books".
I say that because of this:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/14 01:20:03 -35.438 53.847 10.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
It is, obviously, on the "dark side", but the location is very good. This is why SW speed alone can not fine tune this postulate. The state of the IMF, like polar angle and azimuth, to estimate what kind of reconnection we were having at that time. This is where the dials are needed. http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html
I don't have that data for that time period.
I will talk about this some more, as well as review the other events, when I get a bit more time.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
Just wanted to post an update.
I had been working on a few things, some "case studies" of past events, and a post on the "changing shape & extent" of the magnetopause, and another, more extensive one on "the various modes of coupling SW energy to Earth, combined with the several types and their relative positions in reconnection events".
The last 3 months of research have been very productive, turning up a stack of supporting papers, and links to many, very good websites covering this vast, and exciting new area of Physics. There was much more pertaining to my hypothesis than I had imagined, or hoped for.
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Needless to say, my "sails are slack" right now. This data was largely in "brainstorm mode", meaning that most of it had only been gone through in "over-view", and not sorted or organized. This means trying to duplicate it will be very hard, if not exactly impossible. I am hopeful that my browser history will be one of the things that is salvaged, as well as a couple or Word docs, that had my initial rough drafts, and reference list. The case studies can be re-done, but with a great deal of time (again).
On EQ activity, >,= 5 mag:
Jan 26 = 1
Jan 27 = 0
Jan 28 = 3
Jan 29 = 2
This is a very low period. I do not recall seeing one this low (take with salt). The SW was correspondingly calm.
Given my comments on the Solar Cycles ( link to post ), this may have been the "eye of the storm". We are definitely "primed" for a 7 or better quake right now. There is SW activity arriving today, and for the next couple of days that should increase the activity. It could "trigger" the stored energy that I think has been occurring over the past several weeks. Statistically, I would say we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days. This is one of those "of course" statements, but combined with some good location & time forecasts, could make for a "valuable" prediction.
Also of interest: NASA/STEREO news shows a "Solar Tsunami" on there website ( LINK ).
(there is an 8 sec video at that link)
Given the SW speeds, as I have discussed previously, for "flare" type events, this energy would be traveling at a pace bringing it to Earth is 2 days.
2007 12 09 - South of the Fiji Islands - M 7.8
This was the largest EQ since this pair:
2007 09 12 - Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia - M 7.9
2007 09 12 - Southern Sumatra, Indonesia - M 8.4
In fairness, there was a 7.7 in Antofogasta, Chile, on Nov 14, 2008.
But, there was also CH lined up with the time & location (3 day travel), on Nov 11:
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
User posted image: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
In fact, I have yet to find an EQ >6.5 that did not happen during the arrival of a SW "CHEP". This goes back for a long as the data is available (several yrs). If I don't get my data back from my hard drive, I will have to do this over, so expect a delay in posting these results.
regards,
T.Roc
ps. It seems that the IMG posting rules have changed, or I am just having some strange problem. Does anyone know?
Just wanted to post an update.
I had been working on a few things, some "case studies" of past events, and a post on the "changing shape & extent" of the magnetopause, and another, more extensive one on "the various modes of coupling SW energy to Earth, combined with the several types and their relative positions in reconnection events".
The last 3 months of research have been very productive, turning up a stack of supporting papers, and links to many, very good websites covering this vast, and exciting new area of Physics. There was much more pertaining to my hypothesis than I had imagined, or hoped for.
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Needless to say, my "sails are slack" right now. This data was largely in "brainstorm mode", meaning that most of it had only been gone through in "over-view", and not sorted or organized. This means trying to duplicate it will be very hard, if not exactly impossible. I am hopeful that my browser history will be one of the things that is salvaged, as well as a couple or Word docs, that had my initial rough drafts, and reference list. The case studies can be re-done, but with a great deal of time (again).
On EQ activity, >,= 5 mag:
Jan 26 = 1
Jan 27 = 0
Jan 28 = 3
Jan 29 = 2
This is a very low period. I do not recall seeing one this low (take with salt). The SW was correspondingly calm.
Given my comments on the Solar Cycles ( link to post ), this may have been the "eye of the storm". We are definitely "primed" for a 7 or better quake right now. There is SW activity arriving today, and for the next couple of days that should increase the activity. It could "trigger" the stored energy that I think has been occurring over the past several weeks. Statistically, I would say we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days. This is one of those "of course" statements, but combined with some good location & time forecasts, could make for a "valuable" prediction.
Also of interest: NASA/STEREO news shows a "Solar Tsunami" on there website ( LINK ).
QUOTE
One of the STEREO spacecraft (Ahead) caught an enourmous wave as it rippled across the most of the Sun (Dec. 7, 2007). While the visual effect is subtle when observed in at extreme UV wavelengths, (especially in any still image) there is nothing subtle about the roughly 500,000 miles it traverses at a speed of 500-1500 km/s in a just few hours or the amount of energy it carries. This event was likely triggered by a small flare and CME from Active Region 977. Scientists believe this is the most substantial wave of this type observed by STEREO.
(there is an 8 sec video at that link)
Given the SW speeds, as I have discussed previously, for "flare" type events, this energy would be traveling at a pace bringing it to Earth is 2 days.
2007 12 09 - South of the Fiji Islands - M 7.8
This was the largest EQ since this pair:
2007 09 12 - Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia - M 7.9
2007 09 12 - Southern Sumatra, Indonesia - M 8.4
In fairness, there was a 7.7 in Antofogasta, Chile, on Nov 14, 2008.
But, there was also CH lined up with the time & location (3 day travel), on Nov 11:
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
User posted image: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
In fact, I have yet to find an EQ >6.5 that did not happen during the arrival of a SW "CHEP". This goes back for a long as the data is available (several yrs). If I don't get my data back from my hard drive, I will have to do this over, so expect a delay in posting these results.
regards,
T.Roc
ps. It seems that the IMG posting rules have changed, or I am just having some strange problem. Does anyone know?
You had 20 years of documents crashing, I had 2 years of documets destroyed from a hard disc surface deterioration on my pentium 3 667MHZ, bummer! I have a much more powerful computer now.
Troc,
Sorry to hear about your troubles. Data loss can be devastating.
Several days ago I noticed I couldn't post images, only links to images. I think this is a new policy in response to some recent posts that contained pornographic images. The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
Sorry to hear about your troubles. Data loss can be devastating.
Several days ago I noticed I couldn't post images, only links to images. I think this is a new policy in response to some recent posts that contained pornographic images. The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
QUOTE (TRoc+Feb 2 2008, 09:24 AM)
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Lord, man! For what it's worth, everybody learns that the hard way. I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary. I hope the data-recovery folks don't bend you over too badly!
Edit: As a matter of fact, I think I'll do a network wide backup this weekend, because... Just because.
QUOTE (TRoc+Feb 2 2008, 09:24 AM)
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
It seems to happen when people need everything they have to continue their research or keep track of contacts.
Any suggestions on the best back system to use?
I have seen web sites with data back up, however I wonder if a personal back up is better.
I have not backed up in 15 years, so I hope to learn before failing this class.
Hi all,
Thanks for your comments, and support.
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
barakn-
The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
Agreed. It seems that solutions/offers have been made for a "volunteer force"; I'm not sure why this is not looked at seriously. Having the ability to post pictures, diagrams, and even equations in some formats, is very helpful. To not have this is a huge step backwards.
regards,
T.Roc
Thanks for your comments, and support.
QUOTE
Sapo-
I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary.
I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary.
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Sapo- I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary. |
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
barakn-
The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
Agreed. It seems that solutions/offers have been made for a "volunteer force"; I'm not sure why this is not looked at seriously. Having the ability to post pictures, diagrams, and even equations in some formats, is very helpful. To not have this is a huge step backwards.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
An update on EQ prediction:
6.9 2008/02/08 09:38:14 10.733 41.884 10 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
6.9 2008/02/14 10:09:23 36.646 21.833 29.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
These are like "teasers". Not exactly right, but enough to put you on the edge of your seat. If the weather-man says "80% chance of rain, it's going to rain!
(if he says "99%, it's probably already raining!)
Not to disappoint:
7.5 2008/02/20 08:08:32 2.751 95.966 34.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
While that prediction was mostly "statistical", my SEC postulate holds:
Each of these major quakes was preceded by an Solar CH / flare by a time that matches the SW speed for the period. Upon reconnection, in the ionosphere, this energy was coupled to the Earth in "anti-polar" regions (primarily equatorial), and produced "earth-quakes".
regards,
T.Roc
An update on EQ prediction:
QUOTE
TRoc Posted on Feb 2 2008, 11:24 AM -
..we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days..
..we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days..
6.9 2008/02/08 09:38:14 10.733 41.884 10 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
6.9 2008/02/14 10:09:23 36.646 21.833 29.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
These are like "teasers". Not exactly right, but enough to put you on the edge of your seat. If the weather-man says "80% chance of rain, it's going to rain!
(if he says "99%, it's probably already raining!)
Not to disappoint:
7.5 2008/02/20 08:08:32 2.751 95.966 34.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
While that prediction was mostly "statistical", my SEC postulate holds:
Each of these major quakes was preceded by an Solar CH / flare by a time that matches the SW speed for the period. Upon reconnection, in the ionosphere, this energy was coupled to the Earth in "anti-polar" regions (primarily equatorial), and produced "earth-quakes".
regards,
T.Roc
some relevant news..
European Space Agency bulletin:
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
Upstream of the boundary, a stationary electrostatic wave, called a zonal flow, is excited by drift wave turbulence. Downstream, the drift waves are not in resonance with the zonal flow, so the zonal flow does not grow there. At the boundary itself, the action of the drift wave turbulence rips the zonal flow apart, causing individual zonal flow periods to move independently. This explains the origin of the solitary zonal flow structures observed by Cluster in regions of strong drift wave turbulence at the Earth's magnetopause boundary.
These "regions of strong drift wave turbulence" would be under my heading of "CHEPs", which continue the transfer of energy, which if resonantly couples with Telluric field lines, can induce EQ's (postulated). The typical crystalline structure of fault areas makes for probable location for this. The conditions in the IMF, especially the azimuth and polar angle, seem to have a strong role in dictating these locations, on the sunward side. It is hard to tell which is causing which, it is quite inter-related. The zonal flows "stack up", as shown above, and much of this energy goes past the Earth, and into the magnetotail; to contribute to dark side reconnections (and EQ's) a few days later. However, there is also significant reconnections going on the sunward side, as well as the dawn and dusk regions. The Auroras (pole regions) are the only "standard" phenomena associated with this right now, although this is changing fast, due to the unprecedented levels of new information being gathered.
regards,
T.Roc
European Space Agency bulletin:
QUOTE
Solitons found in the magnetopause
07 Mar 2008
For the first time, spontaneous formation of solitons in space, at the border of the Earth's magnetosphere called magnetopause, is reported and explained in a recent article published in Physical Review Letters. The combined observations made by the four satellites of the Cluster mission were found in good agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming earlier theoretical predictions of their existence.
"Cluster is the first mission in space able to compare natural phenomena such as solitons with theoretic models in much more detail than any other mission thanks to its unique capability of differentiating spatial from temporal variations. This result is one of the scientific highlights of the mission," comments Philippe Escoubet, Cluster and Double Star scientist of the European Space Agency.
07 Mar 2008
For the first time, spontaneous formation of solitons in space, at the border of the Earth's magnetosphere called magnetopause, is reported and explained in a recent article published in Physical Review Letters. The combined observations made by the four satellites of the Cluster mission were found in good agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming earlier theoretical predictions of their existence.
"Cluster is the first mission in space able to compare natural phenomena such as solitons with theoretic models in much more detail than any other mission thanks to its unique capability of differentiating spatial from temporal variations. This result is one of the scientific highlights of the mission," comments Philippe Escoubet, Cluster and Double Star scientist of the European Space Agency.
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Solitons found in the magnetopause 07 Mar 2008 For the first time, spontaneous formation of solitons in space, at the border of the Earth's magnetosphere called magnetopause, is reported and explained in a recent article published in Physical Review Letters. The combined observations made by the four satellites of the Cluster mission were found in good agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming earlier theoretical predictions of their existence. "Cluster is the first mission in space able to compare natural phenomena such as solitons with theoretic models in much more detail than any other mission thanks to its unique capability of differentiating spatial from temporal variations. This result is one of the scientific highlights of the mission," comments Philippe Escoubet, Cluster and Double Star scientist of the European Space Agency. |
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
Upstream of the boundary, a stationary electrostatic wave, called a zonal flow, is excited by drift wave turbulence. Downstream, the drift waves are not in resonance with the zonal flow, so the zonal flow does not grow there. At the boundary itself, the action of the drift wave turbulence rips the zonal flow apart, causing individual zonal flow periods to move independently. This explains the origin of the solitary zonal flow structures observed by Cluster in regions of strong drift wave turbulence at the Earth's magnetopause boundary.
These "regions of strong drift wave turbulence" would be under my heading of "CHEPs", which continue the transfer of energy, which if resonantly couples with Telluric field lines, can induce EQ's (postulated). The typical crystalline structure of fault areas makes for probable location for this. The conditions in the IMF, especially the azimuth and polar angle, seem to have a strong role in dictating these locations, on the sunward side. It is hard to tell which is causing which, it is quite inter-related. The zonal flows "stack up", as shown above, and much of this energy goes past the Earth, and into the magnetotail; to contribute to dark side reconnections (and EQ's) a few days later. However, there is also significant reconnections going on the sunward side, as well as the dawn and dusk regions. The Auroras (pole regions) are the only "standard" phenomena associated with this right now, although this is changing fast, due to the unprecedented levels of new information being gathered.
regards,
T.Roc
We also have this occurring
[QUOTE]Solar activity is surging. Three large sunspots have materialized and at least one of them harbors energy for strong solar flares. An M2-class eruption on March 25th hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and emitted radio bursts audible in shortwave receivers on Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours[QUOTE]
from http://spaceweather.com/
and "Old Solar Cycle Returns" http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28...e.htm?list46072
[QUOTE]Solar activity is surging. Three large sunspots have materialized and at least one of them harbors energy for strong solar flares. An M2-class eruption on March 25th hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and emitted radio bursts audible in shortwave receivers on Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours[QUOTE]
from http://spaceweather.com/
and "Old Solar Cycle Returns" http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28...e.htm?list46072
Solar tsunamis:
www.tcd.ie/Communications/news.php?headerID=861&vs_date=2008-4-1
www.tcd.ie/Communications/news.php?headerID=861&vs_date=2008-4-1
For TRoc & co. - http://www.physorg.com/news126448600.html
Who would have guessed that seismic activity could be interconnected?![/sarcasm]
TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data. I'd really like to see some solid solar-terrestrial-seismic connection equations or parameters that allow us the pleasure of improved earthquake forecasts. I'm working on understanding it as well, but as for how the magnetic and electric energy thrown into the atmosphere and mantle/core system generates acoustic waves (particularly focused/coherent acoustic waves necessary for major earthquakes), I am at somewhat of a loss... especially with the recent article detailing the anisotropy of the molecular structures in the core.
Who would have guessed that seismic activity could be interconnected?![/sarcasm]
TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data. I'd really like to see some solid solar-terrestrial-seismic connection equations or parameters that allow us the pleasure of improved earthquake forecasts. I'm working on understanding it as well, but as for how the magnetic and electric energy thrown into the atmosphere and mantle/core system generates acoustic waves (particularly focused/coherent acoustic waves necessary for major earthquakes), I am at somewhat of a loss... especially with the recent article detailing the anisotropy of the molecular structures in the core.
Hi all,
soundhertz,
Thanks for the links. I talked about that a little in am U's thread: < link >. There is definitely an overlap period of the separate cycles.
Strumpet,
Welcome to the Forum. (hope you're still around). Thanks for the info. I mentioned a similar, "fast forming" activity earlier in this thread, < link >, and saw another one the other day. I say "fast forming" because they are not long enough to track like a normal coronal hole (CH), or other phenomenon. They also leave as quickly as they came. I have not taken the time to search for the video segments of these events, but I'll bet they're out there. That would allow us to see exactly how long they lasted, and other details. The "one time" appearance that recently occurred is here: < link >.
From the above Stereo EUVI 195 2008 04-08 19:13 UTC photo, we have a good alignment with these EQ's:
5.1 2008/04/11 15:54:21 -20.317 168.862 72.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.9 2008/04/11 16:35:58 -20.444 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 2008/04/11 17:45:02 -20.336 168.806 10.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
as well as these corresponding higher latitude events, following the above:
5.7 2008/04/12 00:46:27 43.930 147.470 53.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/13 13:41:33 67.930 -167.504 11.4 BERING STRAIT
The 7.1 2008/04/12 00:30:12 -55.681 158.527 10.0 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION quake would line up with this photo, from the same date as the above photo: Stereo Ahead EUVI 171 2008-04-08 16:01 UTC.
It is worth noting, that in the first photo, this last CH is not visible, though it can be tracked by other photos. The "fast-transient" CH seems to have closed this other, normal CH during it's own formation. This might help explain the extra magnitude, from the more localized CHEP that "shuttering" would create. These types of anomalies show that video footage would be preferred to the (more available) photos that I normally use.
This SOHO EUVI 195, from 04-06, also seems to have this kind of opening/closing, at a rate that shows up when you compare the changes in other photos, near the same time: < link >
Compare to the ahead and behind photos, from this page: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2008/04/06/.
That leads to this EQ activity: (the whole >5 list from 04-09)
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 16:02:10 -20.402 169.023 26.4 VANUATU
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 15:31:19 -20.100 168.438 38.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 14:47:50 -19.998 168.888 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:21:20 -20.119 168.801 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:11:44 -20.127 168.833 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.2 2008/04/09 13:03:07 -20.171 168.837 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 7.3 2008/04/09 12:46:13 -20.091 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 11:23:40 -20.223 168.923 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.4 2008/04/09 11:13:20 -20.187 168.862 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
Now, THAT is a tight shot group!
So, maybe there is reason to believe that the extra solar activity at the "change" of the cycles leads to an increase in EQ activity. More localized energy, from a fast opening/closing of a CH.
regards,
T.Roc
soundhertz,
Thanks for the links. I talked about that a little in am U's thread: < link >. There is definitely an overlap period of the separate cycles.
Strumpet,
Welcome to the Forum. (hope you're still around). Thanks for the info. I mentioned a similar, "fast forming" activity earlier in this thread, < link >, and saw another one the other day. I say "fast forming" because they are not long enough to track like a normal coronal hole (CH), or other phenomenon. They also leave as quickly as they came. I have not taken the time to search for the video segments of these events, but I'll bet they're out there. That would allow us to see exactly how long they lasted, and other details. The "one time" appearance that recently occurred is here: < link >.
From the above Stereo EUVI 195 2008 04-08 19:13 UTC photo, we have a good alignment with these EQ's:
5.1 2008/04/11 15:54:21 -20.317 168.862 72.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.9 2008/04/11 16:35:58 -20.444 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 2008/04/11 17:45:02 -20.336 168.806 10.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
as well as these corresponding higher latitude events, following the above:
5.7 2008/04/12 00:46:27 43.930 147.470 53.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/13 13:41:33 67.930 -167.504 11.4 BERING STRAIT
The 7.1 2008/04/12 00:30:12 -55.681 158.527 10.0 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION quake would line up with this photo, from the same date as the above photo: Stereo Ahead EUVI 171 2008-04-08 16:01 UTC.
It is worth noting, that in the first photo, this last CH is not visible, though it can be tracked by other photos. The "fast-transient" CH seems to have closed this other, normal CH during it's own formation. This might help explain the extra magnitude, from the more localized CHEP that "shuttering" would create. These types of anomalies show that video footage would be preferred to the (more available) photos that I normally use.
This SOHO EUVI 195, from 04-06, also seems to have this kind of opening/closing, at a rate that shows up when you compare the changes in other photos, near the same time: < link >
Compare to the ahead and behind photos, from this page: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2008/04/06/.
That leads to this EQ activity: (the whole >5 list from 04-09)
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 16:02:10 -20.402 169.023 26.4 VANUATU
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 15:31:19 -20.100 168.438 38.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 14:47:50 -19.998 168.888 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:21:20 -20.119 168.801 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:11:44 -20.127 168.833 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.2 2008/04/09 13:03:07 -20.171 168.837 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 7.3 2008/04/09 12:46:13 -20.091 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 11:23:40 -20.223 168.923 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.4 2008/04/09 11:13:20 -20.187 168.862 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
Now, THAT is a tight shot group!
So, maybe there is reason to believe that the extra solar activity at the "change" of the cycles leads to an increase in EQ activity. More localized energy, from a fast opening/closing of a CH.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
I wanted to break up these posts, and answer am Unition separately. I have been meaning to post on this for about a week, but haven't had much spare time lately.
am_Unition Posted on Apr 7 2008, 11:31 PM
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php By: Oregon State University
NEWPORT, Ore. April 11, 2008 -- Scientists at Oregon State University's Hatfield Marine Science Center have recorded more than 600 earthquakes in the last 10 days off the central Oregon coast in an area not typically known for a high degree of seismic activity.
This earthquake "swarm" is unique, according to OSU marine geologist Robert Dziak, because it is occurring within the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate - away from the major, regional tectonic boundaries.
"In the 17 years we've been monitoring the ocean through hydrophone recordings, we've never seen a swarm of earthquakes in an area such as this," Dziak said. "We're not certain what it means.
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
This is the eighth such swarm over the past dozen years, Dziak said, and the first seven were likely because of volcanic activity on the Juan de Fuca ridge.
But this eighth swarm may be different.
"The fact that it's taking place in the middle of the plate, and not a boundary, is puzzling," Dziak admitted. "It's something worth keeping an eye on."
Some other swarms, in the same region mentioned:
Lake Tahoe swarm 2004
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
September 20: An M4.8 occurred this morning at 9:51 AM local time. Over 600 events have occurred in this swarm as of noon today.
I just want to know, "where is all this magma going"?
http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PRESS/yell_press.htm
Scientists once believed that an earthquake at one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. But that belief was shattered in 1992 when the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in California's Mojave Desert triggered a swarm of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone, as well as other jolts near Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Yucca Mountain, Nev.
The apparent triggering of the Yellowstone tremors by the Alaska quake "confirms what we are beginning to see worldwide - that earthquakes can be triggered by other earthquakes at great distances, more so than we had thought before," said Robert. B. Smith, a University of Utah professor of geology and geophysics and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
16 years ago, the old idea was "shattered"; why aren't we seeing more work done on these connections?
VOLCANOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF SACRAMENTO
(emphasis added)
Kilauea Volcano Erupts Explosively And Vents Noxious Gas
(emphasis added)
Kilauea Volcano Erupts Explosively And Vents Noxious Gas Scientists are monitoring gas emissions and seismic activity at Kilauea, which on March 19, 2008 experienced its first explosive eruption since 1924. The volcano is also emitting sulfur dioxide at toxic levels.
also : http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/kilaueastatus.php
I watched the web-cast press conference by the USGS Monday. http://www.scec.org/ucerf/
Big prediction:
You see that (500 yr ave.) contradicted in the last article on the connection between Cascadia & San Andreas. They state a 200-240 yr pattern. It seems that the Govt. is content in creating just enough concern to cause people to buy candles and water, and no more. No mention of any larger connections, nor any efforts to make usable EQ predictions.
regards,
T.Roc
ps. I can't resist playing with their numbers. Here is the "less conservative" version:
California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 3 years.
The likelihood of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 99.7%.
For the next 30 years there is a 50% probability of a magnitude 8+ quake or new volcanic activity, somewhere along that zone (Cascadia).
It was called a sun "tsunami" but as it spread sideways it didn't seem to damage any of the large or small plasma "structures" that were on the surface, at least at the resolution I saw it it didn't.
I have a question, TRoc: Could that sun "tsunami" have happened at a high altitude and not one of us noticed it? And would it be realistic to try to tie these "altitudes" -since the earthquake today was reported to be at a depth of 7.5 kilometers? So a very very high altitude sun "event" would cause a very very high altitude (from the mantle, of course) "event" on earth too?
(More or less similar to storm clouds in high altitudes that "do" things that they don't at low altitudes.)
Some of it might be going to Reno.
Some of it might be going to Reno.
Reno urged to prepare for worse as earthquakes continue
I wanted to break up these posts, and answer am Unition separately. I have been meaning to post on this for about a week, but haven't had much spare time lately.
am_Unition Posted on Apr 7 2008, 11:31 PM
QUOTE
TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data.
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data. |
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php By: Oregon State University
NEWPORT, Ore. April 11, 2008 -- Scientists at Oregon State University's Hatfield Marine Science Center have recorded more than 600 earthquakes in the last 10 days off the central Oregon coast in an area not typically known for a high degree of seismic activity.
This earthquake "swarm" is unique, according to OSU marine geologist Robert Dziak, because it is occurring within the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate - away from the major, regional tectonic boundaries.
"In the 17 years we've been monitoring the ocean through hydrophone recordings, we've never seen a swarm of earthquakes in an area such as this," Dziak said. "We're not certain what it means.
QUOTE
At least three of the earthquakes have been of a magnitude of 5.0 or higher, Dziak said, which also is unusual.
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| At least three of the earthquakes have been of a magnitude of 5.0 or higher, Dziak said, which also is unusual. |
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
This is the eighth such swarm over the past dozen years, Dziak said, and the first seven were likely because of volcanic activity on the Juan de Fuca ridge.
But this eighth swarm may be different.
"The fact that it's taking place in the middle of the plate, and not a boundary, is puzzling," Dziak admitted. "It's something worth keeping an eye on."
Some other swarms, in the same region mentioned:
Lake Tahoe swarm 2004
QUOTE
Magma moving deep below Lake Tahoe apparently triggered an unprecedented swarm of 1,600 tiny quakes during a seven-month period but they stopped in February and there's no cause for alarm, experts said Thursday.
"We've been watching earthquakes for 30 years in the Tahoe area and have never witnessed an earthquake swarm anything like this," said Ken Smith, a research seismologist for the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno.
"We've been watching earthquakes for 30 years in the Tahoe area and have never witnessed an earthquake swarm anything like this," said Ken Smith, a research seismologist for the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno.
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Magma moving deep below Lake Tahoe apparently triggered an unprecedented swarm of 1,600 tiny quakes during a seven-month period but they stopped in February and there's no cause for alarm, experts said Thursday. "We've been watching earthquakes for 30 years in the Tahoe area and have never witnessed an earthquake swarm anything like this," said Ken Smith, a research seismologist for the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno. |
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
September 20: An M4.8 occurred this morning at 9:51 AM local time. Over 600 events have occurred in this swarm as of noon today.
I just want to know, "where is all this magma going"?
http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PRESS/yell_press.htm
QUOTE
November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming.
By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area.
There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California.
By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area.
There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area. There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California. |
Scientists once believed that an earthquake at one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. But that belief was shattered in 1992 when the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in California's Mojave Desert triggered a swarm of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone, as well as other jolts near Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Yucca Mountain, Nev.
The apparent triggering of the Yellowstone tremors by the Alaska quake "confirms what we are beginning to see worldwide - that earthquakes can be triggered by other earthquakes at great distances, more so than we had thought before," said Robert. B. Smith, a University of Utah professor of geology and geophysics and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
16 years ago, the old idea was "shattered"; why aren't we seeing more work done on these connections?
VOLCANOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF SACRAMENTO
QUOTE
"The Electric Volcano"
“Hawaii’s Ups and Downs”
Deformation measurements at Hawaiian volcanoes over the past several years have characterized a number of interesting behavioral patterns, several of which had not previously been recorded. In particular, GPS, tilt, and radar interferometry have proven quite useful for measuring surface displacements associated with magmatic and tectonic activity in Hawaii. These data streams have captured the transition from deflation to inflation of Mauna Loa volcano in 2002, and a 5-fold increase in inflation rates in mid-2004. Kilauea volcano, which deflated by over 1.5 meters at the summit between 1983 (the start of the current eruption) and 2002, began inflating at roughly the same time as Mauna Loa, perhaps suggesting an interaction of some sort between the two volcanoes. Two other periods of inflation at Kilauea during the current eruption have resulted in changes in the eruptive vent, so the current episode may lead to a similar change in activity. Deformation at Kilauea is punctuated by inflation-deflation transients that last hours to days and are usually associated with a surge in the output of lava at Pu`u`O`o. In addition, GPS measurements on the south flank of the volcano have recorded at least 4 aseismic slip events similar to those observed in Cascadia and other tectonically active plate margins. Future GPS and tiltmeter station installations should help with understanding these processes and are likely to detect still more currently unknown deformation patterns.
“Hawaii’s Ups and Downs”
Deformation measurements at Hawaiian volcanoes over the past several years have characterized a number of interesting behavioral patterns, several of which had not previously been recorded. In particular, GPS, tilt, and radar interferometry have proven quite useful for measuring surface displacements associated with magmatic and tectonic activity in Hawaii. These data streams have captured the transition from deflation to inflation of Mauna Loa volcano in 2002, and a 5-fold increase in inflation rates in mid-2004. Kilauea volcano, which deflated by over 1.5 meters at the summit between 1983 (the start of the current eruption) and 2002, began inflating at roughly the same time as Mauna Loa, perhaps suggesting an interaction of some sort between the two volcanoes. Two other periods of inflation at Kilauea during the current eruption have resulted in changes in the eruptive vent, so the current episode may lead to a similar change in activity. Deformation at Kilauea is punctuated by inflation-deflation transients that last hours to days and are usually associated with a surge in the output of lava at Pu`u`O`o. In addition, GPS measurements on the south flank of the volcano have recorded at least 4 aseismic slip events similar to those observed in Cascadia and other tectonically active plate margins. Future GPS and tiltmeter station installations should help with understanding these processes and are likely to detect still more currently unknown deformation patterns.
(emphasis added)
Kilauea Volcano Erupts Explosively And Vents Noxious Gas
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| "The Electric Volcano" “Hawaii’s Ups and Downs” Deformation measurements at Hawaiian volcanoes over the past several years have characterized a number of interesting behavioral patterns, several of which had not previously been recorded. In particular, GPS, tilt, and radar interferometry have proven quite useful for measuring surface displacements associated with magmatic and tectonic activity in Hawaii. These data streams have captured the transition from deflation to inflation of Mauna Loa volcano in 2002, and a 5-fold increase in inflation rates in mid-2004. Kilauea volcano, which deflated by over 1.5 meters at the summit between 1983 (the start of the current eruption) and 2002, began inflating at roughly the same time as Mauna Loa, perhaps suggesting an interaction of some sort between the two volcanoes. Two other periods of inflation at Kilauea during the current eruption have resulted in changes in the eruptive vent, so the current episode may lead to a similar change in activity. Deformation at Kilauea is punctuated by inflation-deflation transients that last hours to days and are usually associated with a surge in the output of lava at Pu`u`O`o. In addition, GPS measurements on the south flank of the volcano have recorded at least 4 aseismic slip events similar to those observed in Cascadia and other tectonically active plate margins. Future GPS and tiltmeter station installations should help with understanding these processes and are likely to detect still more currently unknown deformation patterns. |
(emphasis added)
Kilauea Volcano Erupts Explosively And Vents Noxious Gas Scientists are monitoring gas emissions and seismic activity at Kilauea, which on March 19, 2008 experienced its first explosive eruption since 1924. The volcano is also emitting sulfur dioxide at toxic levels.
also : http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/kilaueastatus.php
I watched the web-cast press conference by the USGS Monday. http://www.scec.org/ucerf/
Big prediction:
QUOTE
California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 30 years (see Figure 1). The likelihood of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%.
For the far northwestern part of the State, a major source of earthquakes is the offshore 750-mile-long Cascadia Subduction Zone, the southern part of which extends about 150 miles into California. For the next 30 years there is a 10% probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake somewhere along that zone. Such quakes occur about once every 500 years on average.
For the far northwestern part of the State, a major source of earthquakes is the offshore 750-mile-long Cascadia Subduction Zone, the southern part of which extends about 150 miles into California. For the next 30 years there is a 10% probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake somewhere along that zone. Such quakes occur about once every 500 years on average.
You see that (500 yr ave.) contradicted in the last article on the connection between Cascadia & San Andreas. They state a 200-240 yr pattern. It seems that the Govt. is content in creating just enough concern to cause people to buy candles and water, and no more. No mention of any larger connections, nor any efforts to make usable EQ predictions.
regards,
T.Roc
ps. I can't resist playing with their numbers. Here is the "less conservative" version:
California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 3 years.
The likelihood of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 99.7%.
For the next 30 years there is a 50% probability of a magnitude 8+ quake or new volcanic activity, somewhere along that zone (Cascadia).
Many other things aside, which I will return to later when I have more time... I must express frustrations similar to TRoc's statement "Why aren't we seeing more work done on these connections?"
It's gotten to the point where we have the necessary technology to collect measurements sensitive enough to yield obvious correlations between solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic and volcanic activity, and even the slightest of land deformations. The problem is clearly a lack of interest and comprehension by the public, and a lack of funding from the government. Fully understanding our planet doesn't seem like such an unreasonable goal.
Now, all that said, I am extremely appreciative of the archives provided by NASA for both STEREO and SOHO. TRoc, I'm not sure whether you've seen the SOHO Searchable Archive, but it's very handy if you have more specific requirements for data retrieval. In the category labeled "Study", SUMER in particular offers a variety of data on coronal hole structure, boundaries, and plumes.
In other news, Solar Cycle 24's second sunspot has recently emerged (higher latitude)-
User posted image: User posted image
It's gotten to the point where we have the necessary technology to collect measurements sensitive enough to yield obvious correlations between solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic and volcanic activity, and even the slightest of land deformations. The problem is clearly a lack of interest and comprehension by the public, and a lack of funding from the government. Fully understanding our planet doesn't seem like such an unreasonable goal.
Now, all that said, I am extremely appreciative of the archives provided by NASA for both STEREO and SOHO. TRoc, I'm not sure whether you've seen the SOHO Searchable Archive, but it's very handy if you have more specific requirements for data retrieval. In the category labeled "Study", SUMER in particular offers a variety of data on coronal hole structure, boundaries, and plumes.
In other news, Solar Cycle 24's second sunspot has recently emerged (higher latitude)-
User posted image: User posted image
I found this article a little ironic.....
Physorg article
It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun.
whoda thunk? Can you hear the gears turning in my head all the way over there? 
Physorg article
It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun.
whoda thunk? Can you hear the gears turning in my head all the way over there?
QUOTE
It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun.
It was called a sun "tsunami" but as it spread sideways it didn't seem to damage any of the large or small plasma "structures" that were on the surface, at least at the resolution I saw it it didn't.
I have a question, TRoc: Could that sun "tsunami" have happened at a high altitude and not one of us noticed it? And would it be realistic to try to tie these "altitudes" -since the earthquake today was reported to be at a depth of 7.5 kilometers? So a very very high altitude sun "event" would cause a very very high altitude (from the mantle, of course) "event" on earth too?
(More or less similar to storm clouds in high altitudes that "do" things that they don't at low altitudes.)
QUOTE (Guest_IAMoraes+Apr 18 2008, 07:32 PM)
It was called a sun "tsunami" but as it spread sideways it didn't seem to damage any of the large or small plasma "structures" that were on the surface, at least at the resolution I saw it it didn't.
This is due to the fact that these plasma structures are regulated by the magnetic field signature. The current hypothesis maintains that the solar dynamo responsible for generating the sun's magnetic field primarily exists at the tachocline, the turbulent boundary between the radiative core of the sun and the outer convective layer... ~73% of a solar radius from the center, if memory serves me correctly. The two layers rotate at different angular speeds (radiative faster than convective), and the interaction between the two generates the turbulence thought to be responsible for the dynamo.
Your observation in fact reinforces this, as the Coronal Mass Ejection responsible for generating a solar tsunami is but a surface-level event. Whether it's a gravitational shockwave or magnetic shockwave (or some combination of the two), it may perturb the plasma structure momentarily, but lacks the ability to modify it significantly.
I will try to answer your question to TRoc in two ways: first, I will assume you deliberately used the word "altitude", and second I will replace it with the word "latitude" (in every circumstance except when you reference earthquake depth or "mantle altitude"), because this actually poses a better question.
Also, keep in mind that TRoc mainly deals with coronal holes correlating with earthquake events, though I suppose Coronal Mass Ejections could be likened to an extremely powerful, very short-lived coronal hole.
1) A CME event necessary to generate a solar tsunami can't occur at a high altitude. All CME's originate at the surface of the sun, and while they may affect plasma structure or density at higher altitudes, each and every CME is guaranteed to be spotted on LASCO video clips and various other instruments directed at the sun.
2) CME's do occur at higher latitudes, although much less frequently than those occuring near the solar equator, at low latitudes. Here is an article published last year detailing the evolution of CME latitude dependence over the previous solar cycle.
Now, tracking correlations between earthquake event latitudes (or depth) on Earth and CME latitudes on the sun is quite a task indeed. A CME is a very quick event, and for the particles ejected from a CME to have the most severe impact on Earth, it must be oriented correctly longitudinally - more towards the western limb of the sun (this is due to the structure of the Parker Spiral).
Particles from high-latitude CME's oriented at a favorable longitude may not reach the Earth at all, as our orbital plane only differs from the solar equator by 7 degrees. However, a very powerful high-latitude CME may cause fluctuations in the heliospheric current sheet's electric field strength, magnetic flux, and Interplanetary Magnetic Field orientation, which could definitely affect conditions at Earth, and thus impact earthquakes. Keep in mind that no concrete data exists on this... alas, that's why this thread exists.
Again, the question of correlating earthquake origin depth to any of these other parameters is literally an entirely different dimension.
I wish I was able to give you a less complex answer...
Also, you referenced the earthquake yesterday... I was unable to find any significant events at a depth of ~7.5 km. Are you talking about the M5.2 that impacted Illinois?
This is due to the fact that these plasma structures are regulated by the magnetic field signature. The current hypothesis maintains that the solar dynamo responsible for generating the sun's magnetic field primarily exists at the tachocline, the turbulent boundary between the radiative core of the sun and the outer convective layer... ~73% of a solar radius from the center, if memory serves me correctly. The two layers rotate at different angular speeds (radiative faster than convective), and the interaction between the two generates the turbulence thought to be responsible for the dynamo.
Your observation in fact reinforces this, as the Coronal Mass Ejection responsible for generating a solar tsunami is but a surface-level event. Whether it's a gravitational shockwave or magnetic shockwave (or some combination of the two), it may perturb the plasma structure momentarily, but lacks the ability to modify it significantly.
I will try to answer your question to TRoc in two ways: first, I will assume you deliberately used the word "altitude", and second I will replace it with the word "latitude" (in every circumstance except when you reference earthquake depth or "mantle altitude"), because this actually poses a better question.
Also, keep in mind that TRoc mainly deals with coronal holes correlating with earthquake events, though I suppose Coronal Mass Ejections could be likened to an extremely powerful, very short-lived coronal hole.
1) A CME event necessary to generate a solar tsunami can't occur at a high altitude. All CME's originate at the surface of the sun, and while they may affect plasma structure or density at higher altitudes, each and every CME is guaranteed to be spotted on LASCO video clips and various other instruments directed at the sun.
2) CME's do occur at higher latitudes, although much less frequently than those occuring near the solar equator, at low latitudes. Here is an article published last year detailing the evolution of CME latitude dependence over the previous solar cycle.
Now, tracking correlations between earthquake event latitudes (or depth) on Earth and CME latitudes on the sun is quite a task indeed. A CME is a very quick event, and for the particles ejected from a CME to have the most severe impact on Earth, it must be oriented correctly longitudinally - more towards the western limb of the sun (this is due to the structure of the Parker Spiral).
Particles from high-latitude CME's oriented at a favorable longitude may not reach the Earth at all, as our orbital plane only differs from the solar equator by 7 degrees. However, a very powerful high-latitude CME may cause fluctuations in the heliospheric current sheet's electric field strength, magnetic flux, and Interplanetary Magnetic Field orientation, which could definitely affect conditions at Earth, and thus impact earthquakes. Keep in mind that no concrete data exists on this... alas, that's why this thread exists.
Again, the question of correlating earthquake origin depth to any of these other parameters is literally an entirely different dimension.
I wish I was able to give you a less complex answer...
Also, you referenced the earthquake yesterday... I was unable to find any significant events at a depth of ~7.5 km. Are you talking about the M5.2 that impacted Illinois?
QUOTE ("THEY"+Apr 18 2008, 05:28 PM)
I found this article a little ironic.....
Physorg article
It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun.
whoda thunk? Can you hear the gears turning in my head all the way over there?
As per usual, that article raised more questions than answers for me.
I have assumed that it is akin to the situation of a ringing bell, as they have stated, albeit in very slow motion. So obviously the properties unique to our sun allow for the most coherent resonance to occur at about 3 millihertz... this must be a feature that mainly propagates near the surface of the sun, as the increasing density of the sun as you travel inward causes the wave to travel at faster velocities. That fact combined with the geometry of a sphere is what makes me skeptical that such a coherent wave exists in the deeper layers of the sun.
In the article, they also state "...the flares cause the oscillations." This seems like one of those "which came first, the chicken or egg" scenarios. I would bet the two are an interlinked feature, which necessitates my biggest question - is the probability of a flare happening at a specific location and time increased or possibly even completely dictated by a peak of the disturbance passing by locally? Logically, the two have to reinforce each other for this correlation to exist, and flares occuring that don't reinforce the wave would dampen its amplitude... something not observed.
The nature of this wave is still somewhat of a mystery to me. Luckily I have just stumbled upon this ebook which offers some insights.
Sorry, kind of off topic
Physorg article
It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun.
whoda thunk? Can you hear the gears turning in my head all the way over there? As per usual, that article raised more questions than answers for me.
I have assumed that it is akin to the situation of a ringing bell, as they have stated, albeit in very slow motion. So obviously the properties unique to our sun allow for the most coherent resonance to occur at about 3 millihertz... this must be a feature that mainly propagates near the surface of the sun, as the increasing density of the sun as you travel inward causes the wave to travel at faster velocities. That fact combined with the geometry of a sphere is what makes me skeptical that such a coherent wave exists in the deeper layers of the sun.
In the article, they also state "...the flares cause the oscillations." This seems like one of those "which came first, the chicken or egg" scenarios. I would bet the two are an interlinked feature, which necessitates my biggest question - is the probability of a flare happening at a specific location and time increased or possibly even completely dictated by a peak of the disturbance passing by locally? Logically, the two have to reinforce each other for this correlation to exist, and flares occuring that don't reinforce the wave would dampen its amplitude... something not observed.
The nature of this wave is still somewhat of a mystery to me. Luckily I have just stumbled upon this ebook which offers some insights.
Sorry, kind of off topic
QUOTE (am_Unition+Apr 19 2008, 07:35 AM)
As per usual, that article raised more questions than answers for me.
Thanks for the input, am_Unition. I thought the articlet raised more answers than I have questions for.
I have an idea or two but it will take me many days to put them in order and write them. It was only after I posted my question that I realized I already had an idee fixe or two about the whole thing... I need better glasses!
I will return to the subject Any Day Now.
Any Day Now.
Any day...
Thanks for the input, am_Unition. I thought the articlet raised more answers than I have questions for.
I have an idea or two but it will take me many days to put them in order and write them. It was only after I posted my question that I realized I already had an idee fixe or two about the whole thing... I need better glasses!
I will return to the subject Any Day Now.
Any Day Now.
Any day...
Hi all,
The National Earthquake Conference is going on in Seattle this week.
Conference Agenda
Although you do not see "prediction" as a topic, I will add something, that somewhat softens my earlier statement, "why aren't we seeing more done in this area". I think that there are 2 main reasons for this, the complexity of the study, and "politics". By politics, I mean the normal limits that are created with national (and regional) boundaries. You do see some cooperation from time to time, but also, you see very "isolated" mindsets, that follow the funding. California (rightly so) get more money, and more study. If you look at a typical USGS map, you see that Canada EQ's are rarely included, because the map is directed to US viewers. You can go to a more global perspective, with the IRIS map < here > (affiliated with USGS). Still, you will find that regional seismic centers almost always show EQ's that don't appear on the global maps.
So, this is very similar to what we see in most areas of Science: the result of specialization, without enough effort to see that the information being gathered is "shared" with other specialists. "Shared" is more than posting data to a www site; it needs to have it's own "specialists", who act specifically to see that the info is stated in the broadest terms possible, and encouraging new specialist to take up the "connections" between apparently isolated studies.
The other reason, of course, is the complexity. This is just not easy; made more so by the lack of published data. Here, I am opening the window a bit, to say that there are many new studies being done, in totally new areas (assuming some connectivity). The data is, in many cases, available in "real-time", on the internet. It will take some time to see what is being published in Journals, to make its way through the larger "filter" of collective agreement. Only then will you see something in a textbook.
This is a large part of why I have been posting in EQ related threads, and am now trying to just keep one going, to make it easier for people to find some of these new papers. My SEC related seismic info is not the only thing that should be in this thread, so don't worry about being "off topic", so long as it is generally related to EQ activity.
I have mentioned the apparent geographic connection between EQ events in the large areas of the border of California/Oregon in N. America, and Peru/Chile in S. America many times before. Again, sometimes you have to find another "specialist", to get more data than is available elsewhere. This link shows more activity in Chile than you see on other maps: http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/autoproc_intra.pl. There have also been a string of quakes in Peru and Bolivia over the past few weeks.
Another swarm (separate from the first) has begun offshore of Oregon. The NOAA is working with the USGS on this, and they have started a webpage for this activity. Researching the effects of underwater hydrothermal venting systems
Also, see: Offshore Oregon Sequence
Regarding the ongoing, inland swarms:
Three Sisters Show Ground Deformation
Another Cascade Range Volcano May Be Coming to Life
Small quakes shake near Maupin area - Causes of series of small tremors remain a mystery to researchers
Maupin Swarm (08)
To the question of "where is it all going?"
Yellowstone Region Press Releases
Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera
User posted image: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:HotspotsSRP.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Park_Caldera
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newberry_Volcano
All of these lie in the center of the region that I have mentioned.
regards,
T.Roc
The National Earthquake Conference is going on in Seattle this week.
Conference Agenda
QUOTE
MISSION STATEMENT: The purpose of the conference is to provide a national forum for dialogue among emergency managers, earthquake researchers, government officials, and business leaders that build common ground to mitigate losses from earthquakes and increase social and economic resiliency.
Although you do not see "prediction" as a topic, I will add something, that somewhat softens my earlier statement, "why aren't we seeing more done in this area". I think that there are 2 main reasons for this, the complexity of the study, and "politics". By politics, I mean the normal limits that are created with national (and regional) boundaries. You do see some cooperation from time to time, but also, you see very "isolated" mindsets, that follow the funding. California (rightly so) get more money, and more study. If you look at a typical USGS map, you see that Canada EQ's are rarely included, because the map is directed to US viewers. You can go to a more global perspective, with the IRIS map < here > (affiliated with USGS). Still, you will find that regional seismic centers almost always show EQ's that don't appear on the global maps.
So, this is very similar to what we see in most areas of Science: the result of specialization, without enough effort to see that the information being gathered is "shared" with other specialists. "Shared" is more than posting data to a www site; it needs to have it's own "specialists", who act specifically to see that the info is stated in the broadest terms possible, and encouraging new specialist to take up the "connections" between apparently isolated studies.
The other reason, of course, is the complexity. This is just not easy; made more so by the lack of published data. Here, I am opening the window a bit, to say that there are many new studies being done, in totally new areas (assuming some connectivity). The data is, in many cases, available in "real-time", on the internet. It will take some time to see what is being published in Journals, to make its way through the larger "filter" of collective agreement. Only then will you see something in a textbook.
This is a large part of why I have been posting in EQ related threads, and am now trying to just keep one going, to make it easier for people to find some of these new papers. My SEC related seismic info is not the only thing that should be in this thread, so don't worry about being "off topic", so long as it is generally related to EQ activity.
I have mentioned the apparent geographic connection between EQ events in the large areas of the border of California/Oregon in N. America, and Peru/Chile in S. America many times before. Again, sometimes you have to find another "specialist", to get more data than is available elsewhere. This link shows more activity in Chile than you see on other maps: http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/autoproc_intra.pl. There have also been a string of quakes in Peru and Bolivia over the past few weeks.
Another swarm (separate from the first) has begun offshore of Oregon. The NOAA is working with the USGS on this, and they have started a webpage for this activity. Researching the effects of underwater hydrothermal venting systems
Also, see: Offshore Oregon Sequence
Regarding the ongoing, inland swarms:
Three Sisters Show Ground Deformation
Another Cascade Range Volcano May Be Coming to Life
Small quakes shake near Maupin area - Causes of series of small tremors remain a mystery to researchers
Maupin Swarm (08)
To the question of "where is it all going?"
Yellowstone Region Press Releases
Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera
User posted image: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:HotspotsSRP.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Park_Caldera
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newberry_Volcano
All of these lie in the center of the region that I have mentioned.
regards,
T.Roc
QUOTE
To the question of "where is it all going?"
Some of it might be going to Reno.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| To the question of "where is it all going?" |
Some of it might be going to Reno.
Reno urged to prepare for worse as earthquakes continue
headlines from http://www.physorg.com/news128507183.html
Here is an article from '03 that focuses on the Wabash fault which just shook again a few days ago. It's an eye-opener about this fault and merits a read. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/...30515075354.htm
Now, to make things interesting, we just had quite a blast from the sun:
From http://www.spaceweather.com/
A bonus: possible auroras 0n the 28th/29th.
Here is an article from '03 that focuses on the Wabash fault which just shook again a few days ago. It's an eye-opener about this fault and merits a read. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/...30515075354.htm
Now, to make things interesting, we just had quite a blast from the sun:
QUOTE
At 1408 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a surge of X-rays registering B3.8 on the Richter scale of solar flares. Shortly thereafter, SOHO coronagraphs recorded a coronal mass ejection (CME) billowing away from the sun
From http://www.spaceweather.com/
A bonus: possible auroras 0n the 28th/29th.
Hi all,
am_Unition Posted: Apr 7 2008, 11:31 PM
am_Unition Posted: Apr 19 2008, 04:35 AM
am_Unition Posted: Apr 19 2008, 04:35 AM I have assumed that it is akin to the situation of a ringing bell, as they have stated, albeit in very slow motion. So obviously the properties unique to our sun allow for the most coherent resonance to occur at about 3 millihertz... this must be a feature that mainly propagates near the surface of the sun, as the increasing density of the sun as you travel inward causes the wave to travel at faster velocities. That fact combined with the geometry of a sphere is what makes me skeptical that such a coherent wave exists in the deeper layers of the sun.
One thing I would say, is not to think of this in terms of "focused acoustic waves", ala the big bad wolf. It would be more clear to make the analogy to lightning: when we hear thunder, we know that there was an electrical exchange, from the atmosphere, to the ground. Of course, with lightning, we get a visible (to our eyes) phenomenon; with these low frequencies, we don't. (this does not necessarily exclude other senses, or other creatures; see Birds can 'see' the Earth's magnetic field , NewScientist.com news service, etc. )
The other thing I would state, is that sometimes it is better to think of the harmonics of wind instruments, rather than stringed ones (or bells). This is because of the effect of accessing higher harmonics, due to increasing the velocity of air (or other disturbance/"wind").
And then, we also have the rather unknown combination of wind and strings, via the Éolico wind harps that Homer mentions seeing on the shores of <Greece> (can't remember where, exactly). You may have witnessed this by strong winds "singing" on power lines, although you need to be near (or have an ear against) the pole to really hear it well. Mathematically, this is modeled (in "ideal" dimensions, degrees of freedom) by a cylinder parting a flow; the relationships of the eddies have a "Kármán vortex street" (KVS). This can either minimize, or maximize the resonant effect on the "rigid body".
The Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse is one example of this induced resonance, although the KVS was not symmetrical, which is usually required for the amplification. In that case, like the Éolico, the cables are all the same diameter, but with differing lengths, so they vibrate in different harmonics. Also, the distance between the support columns matched this secondary mode. While normally this is a transverse phenomenon, at the time of the bridge collapse, a torsional mode was taking place. I would say that the leeward cable side of this steady, mild wind (67km/h) was experiencing "beat frequency summing" (aka chords) due to the asymmetrical KVS flow past the windward side cables. The wind was perpendicular to the bridge, and of course, the cables were equally separated, in both directions. Once the lateral movement began, and the phase angle steadily oscillated, normally the bridge would go up on 1 side, and down on the other (in direction of traffic). In this case, the 2 sides were in exact opposite phase, or harmonic; a twisting started, rather than up/down. The .2 Hz was resonant with neither the bridge itself, nor the vortex shedding of the windward side, at that wind velocity. It took the secondary harmonic effect to compound the phenomenon. The Éolico is known to produce "random" chords, due to secondary resonance, or changes in wind speed. Because the strings are all tuned equally, during steady wind, only harmonic mixing could produce this effect.
The other example, which was due to symmetrical shedding resonance, was in Yorkshire, England, in 1965. Three cooling towers at a power station there collapsed in high winds, even though the structures were built to withstand much stronger gusts.
So, in trying to build a real-world model, I am trying the analogy of the Earth's magnetic field lines, at the magnetosphere boundary, responding to both the velocity of the SW, and micro-fluctuations (ie size/shape). This is also further complicated by the fact that the boundary itself is constantly changing, in a non-linear and self regulating way. On the macro level, we get the plasma current sheets, flowing around the Earth. On the micro-level, we should have a multitude of vortexes, some of which combine and resonate with the field lines (Telluric).
The examples of the Tacoma bridge, and the cooling towers are at the "macro human scale". At a "terrestrial micro-scale", we have KVS cloud patterns formed by islands.
User posted image: User posted image
Von Kármán vortex street off the Chilean coast near the Juan Fernandez Islands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_vortex_street
At the "terrestrial macro-scale", we have the same KVS cloud pattern again, with the equator forming the boundary layer.
http://www.daylightmap.com/clouds/
However, the actual formation of the clouds themselves has a connection with the interaction of the magnetosphere, SW, and ionosphere. I think that monitoring global cloud formations will be play a future role in EQ prediction. The Chinese have a history of this, but nothing "Scientific", as of yet. Global lightning distribution may offer clues to the "micro-reconnection" events as well.
Further reading:
Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity
CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling
CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling
Abstract In 1997, after almost forty years since the initial attempt by Benioff et al (1959), continuous free oscillations of the Earth were discovered. Spheroidal fundamental modes between 2 and 7 millihertz are excited continuously with acceleration amplitudes of about 0.3–0.5 nanogals. The signal is now commonly found in virtually all data recorded by STS-1 type broadband seismometers at quiet sites. Seasonal variation in amplitude and the existence of two coupled modes between the atmosphere and the solid Earth support that these oscillations are excited by the atmosphere. Stochastic excitation due to atmospheric turbulence is a favored mechanism, providing a good match between theory and data. The atmosphere has ample energy to support this theory because excitation of these modes require only 500–10000 W whereas the atmosphere contains about 1017W of kinetic energy. An application of this phenomenon includes planetary seismology, because other planets may be oscillating owing to atmospheric excitation. The interior structure of planets could be learned by determining the eigenfrequencies in the continuous free oscillations. It is especially attractive to pursue this idea for tectonically quiet planets, since quakes may be too infrequent to be recorded by seismic instruments.
A case study of low-frequency waves at the magnetopause
Because of the current interest in Global warming, there is also a lot of information on the SEC, and solar cycle/Earth weather relationship.
To the question of the Sun's modes being the ringing of a bell, and the solar flare connection, keep in mind that the ringing can be from a single "strike", as you are thinking, or from a consistent series of smaller ones.
Evidence that solar flares drive global oscillations in the Sun
Because of the current interest in Global warming, there is also a lot of information on the SEC, and solar cycle/Earth weather relationship.
To the question of the Sun's modes being the ringing of a bell, and the solar flare connection, keep in mind that the ringing can be from a single "strike", as you are thinking, or from a consistent series of smaller ones.
Evidence that solar flares drive global oscillations in the Sun
ABSTRACT
Solar flares are large explosions on the Suns surface caused by a sudden release of magnetic energy. They are known to cause local short-lived oscillations travelling away from the explosion like water rings. Here we show that the energy in the solar acoustic spectrum is correlated with flares. This means that the flares drive global oscillations in the Sun in the same way that the entire Earth is set ringing for several weeks after a major earthquake like the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake. The correlation between flares and energy in the acoustic spectrum of disk-integrated sunlight is stronger for high-frequency waves than for ordinary pmodes which are excited by the turbulence in the near surface convection zone immediately beneath the photosphere.
BAYESIAN INFERENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS OF SOLAR-LIKE OSCILLATIONS
Are solar granules the only source of acoustic oscillations?
Are solar granules the only source of acoustic oscillations?
Abstract. The excitation mechanism of low degree acoustic modes is investigated through the analysis of the stochastic time variations of their energy. The correlation between the energies of two different modes is interpreted as the signature of the occurrence rate of their excitation source. The different correlations determined by Foglizzo et al. (1998) constrain the physical properties of an hypothetical source of excitation, which would act in addition to the classical excitation by the turbulent convection. Particular attention is drawn to the effect of coronal mass ejections. The variability of their occurrence rate with the solar cycle could account for the variation of the correlation between IPHIR and GOLF data. Such an interpretation would suggest that the mean correlation between low degree acoustic modes is at least 0:2% at solar minimum.
Also, we have to turn our concept of "velocity" on its head (ie. inverse), when dealing with these very low frequencies. Velocity is distance over time, but in this case, we must put time over distance (inverse period). Then, we still increase the distance parameter, and we arrive at the faster moving velocities coinciding with the lower frequencies. In a sphere, the frequency gets lower as you go towards the center. The modes get further apart, and this has several effects. For example, a 1000 Hz (acoustic) wave (ignoring spreading) will lose 90% of its energy in 7km (travelling at sea level). A 1 Hz wave can travel 3000km, and a .1 Hz can travel around the world, before losing 90% of its energy. The absorption increases as the square of the frequency.
Soundhertz, I will answer your question(s) in my next post.
Regards,
T.Roc
am_Unition Posted: Apr 7 2008, 11:31 PM
QUOTE
..I'm working on understanding it as well, but as for how the magnetic and electric energy thrown into the atmosphere and mantle/core system generates acoustic waves (particularly focused/coherent acoustic waves necessary for major earthquakes), ..
am_Unition Posted: Apr 19 2008, 04:35 AM
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| ..I'm working on understanding it as well, but as for how the magnetic and electric energy thrown into the atmosphere and mantle/core system generates acoustic waves (particularly focused/coherent acoustic waves necessary for major earthquakes), .. |
am_Unition Posted: Apr 19 2008, 04:35 AM I have assumed that it is akin to the situation of a ringing bell, as they have stated, albeit in very slow motion. So obviously the properties unique to our sun allow for the most coherent resonance to occur at about 3 millihertz... this must be a feature that mainly propagates near the surface of the sun, as the increasing density of the sun as you travel inward causes the wave to travel at faster velocities. That fact combined with the geometry of a sphere is what makes me skeptical that such a coherent wave exists in the deeper layers of the sun.
One thing I would say, is not to think of this in terms of "focused acoustic waves", ala the big bad wolf. It would be more clear to make the analogy to lightning: when we hear thunder, we know that there was an electrical exchange, from the atmosphere, to the ground. Of course, with lightning, we get a visible (to our eyes) phenomenon; with these low frequencies, we don't. (this does not necessarily exclude other senses, or other creatures; see Birds can 'see' the Earth's magnetic field , NewScientist.com news service, etc. )
The other thing I would state, is that sometimes it is better to think of the harmonics of wind instruments, rather than stringed ones (or bells). This is because of the effect of accessing higher harmonics, due to increasing the velocity of air (or other disturbance/"wind").
And then, we also have the rather unknown combination of wind and strings, via the Éolico wind harps that Homer mentions seeing on the shores of <Greece> (can't remember where, exactly). You may have witnessed this by strong winds "singing" on power lines, although you need to be near (or have an ear against) the pole to really hear it well. Mathematically, this is modeled (in "ideal" dimensions, degrees of freedom) by a cylinder parting a flow; the relationships of the eddies have a "Kármán vortex street" (KVS). This can either minimize, or maximize the resonant effect on the "rigid body".
The Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse is one example of this induced resonance, although the KVS was not symmetrical, which is usually required for the amplification. In that case, like the Éolico, the cables are all the same diameter, but with differing lengths, so they vibrate in different harmonics. Also, the distance between the support columns matched this secondary mode. While normally this is a transverse phenomenon, at the time of the bridge collapse, a torsional mode was taking place. I would say that the leeward cable side of this steady, mild wind (67km/h) was experiencing "beat frequency summing" (aka chords) due to the asymmetrical KVS flow past the windward side cables. The wind was perpendicular to the bridge, and of course, the cables were equally separated, in both directions. Once the lateral movement began, and the phase angle steadily oscillated, normally the bridge would go up on 1 side, and down on the other (in direction of traffic). In this case, the 2 sides were in exact opposite phase, or harmonic; a twisting started, rather than up/down. The .2 Hz was resonant with neither the bridge itself, nor the vortex shedding of the windward side, at that wind velocity. It took the secondary harmonic effect to compound the phenomenon. The Éolico is known to produce "random" chords, due to secondary resonance, or changes in wind speed. Because the strings are all tuned equally, during steady wind, only harmonic mixing could produce this effect.
The other example, which was due to symmetrical shedding resonance, was in Yorkshire, England, in 1965. Three cooling towers at a power station there collapsed in high winds, even though the structures were built to withstand much stronger gusts.
So, in trying to build a real-world model, I am trying the analogy of the Earth's magnetic field lines, at the magnetosphere boundary, responding to both the velocity of the SW, and micro-fluctuations (ie size/shape). This is also further complicated by the fact that the boundary itself is constantly changing, in a non-linear and self regulating way. On the macro level, we get the plasma current sheets, flowing around the Earth. On the micro-level, we should have a multitude of vortexes, some of which combine and resonate with the field lines (Telluric).
The examples of the Tacoma bridge, and the cooling towers are at the "macro human scale". At a "terrestrial micro-scale", we have KVS cloud patterns formed by islands.
User posted image: User posted image
Von Kármán vortex street off the Chilean coast near the Juan Fernandez Islands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_vortex_street
At the "terrestrial macro-scale", we have the same KVS cloud pattern again, with the equator forming the boundary layer.
http://www.daylightmap.com/clouds/
However, the actual formation of the clouds themselves has a connection with the interaction of the magnetosphere, SW, and ionosphere. I think that monitoring global cloud formations will be play a future role in EQ prediction. The Chinese have a history of this, but nothing "Scientific", as of yet. Global lightning distribution may offer clues to the "micro-reconnection" events as well.
Further reading:
Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity
QUOTE
Observations of changes in cloud properties that correlate with the 11-year cycles in space particle fluxes are reviewed. The correlations can be understood in terms of one or both of two microphysical processes; ion mediated nucleation (IMN) and electroscavenging. IMN relies on the presence of ions to provide the condensation sites for sulfuric acid and water vapors to produce new aerosol particles, which, under certain conditions, might grow into sizes that can be activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Electroscavenging depends on the buildup of space charge at the tops and bottoms of clouds as the vertical current
density (Jz) in the global electric circuit encounters the increased electrical resistivity of the clouds. Space charge is electrostatic charge density due to a difference between the concentrations of positive and negative ions. Calculations indicate that this electrostatic charge on aerosol particles can enhance the rate at which they are scavenged by cloud droplets. The aerosol particles for which scavenging is important are those that act as insitu ice forming nuclei (IFN) and CCN. Both IMN and electroscavenging depend on the presence of atmospheric ions that are generated, in regions of the atmosphere relevant for effects on clouds, by galactic cosmic rays (GCR). The space charge depends, in addition, on the magnitude of Jz. The magnitude of Jz depends not only on the GCR flux, but also on the fluxes of MeV electrons from the radiation belts, and the ionospheric potentials generated by the solar wind, that can vary independently of the GCR flux. The roles of GCR and Jz in cloud processes are the speculative links in a series connecting solar activity, the solar wind, GCR, clouds and climate. This article reviews the correlated cloud variations and the two mechanisms proposed as possible explanations for these links.
density (Jz) in the global electric circuit encounters the increased electrical resistivity of the clouds. Space charge is electrostatic charge density due to a difference between the concentrations of positive and negative ions. Calculations indicate that this electrostatic charge on aerosol particles can enhance the rate at which they are scavenged by cloud droplets. The aerosol particles for which scavenging is important are those that act as insitu ice forming nuclei (IFN) and CCN. Both IMN and electroscavenging depend on the presence of atmospheric ions that are generated, in regions of the atmosphere relevant for effects on clouds, by galactic cosmic rays (GCR). The space charge depends, in addition, on the magnitude of Jz. The magnitude of Jz depends not only on the GCR flux, but also on the fluxes of MeV electrons from the radiation belts, and the ionospheric potentials generated by the solar wind, that can vary independently of the GCR flux. The roles of GCR and Jz in cloud processes are the speculative links in a series connecting solar activity, the solar wind, GCR, clouds and climate. This article reviews the correlated cloud variations and the two mechanisms proposed as possible explanations for these links.
CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Observations of changes in cloud properties that correlate with the 11-year cycles in space particle fluxes are reviewed. The correlations can be understood in terms of one or both of two microphysical processes; ion mediated nucleation (IMN) and electroscavenging. IMN relies on the presence of ions to provide the condensation sites for sulfuric acid and water vapors to produce new aerosol particles, which, under certain conditions, might grow into sizes that can be activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Electroscavenging depends on the buildup of space charge at the tops and bottoms of clouds as the vertical current density (Jz) in the global electric circuit encounters the increased electrical resistivity of the clouds. Space charge is electrostatic charge density due to a difference between the concentrations of positive and negative ions. Calculations indicate that this electrostatic charge on aerosol particles can enhance the rate at which they are scavenged by cloud droplets. The aerosol particles for which scavenging is important are those that act as insitu ice forming nuclei (IFN) and CCN. Both IMN and electroscavenging depend on the presence of atmospheric ions that are generated, in regions of the atmosphere relevant for effects on clouds, by galactic cosmic rays (GCR). The space charge depends, in addition, on the magnitude of Jz. The magnitude of Jz depends not only on the GCR flux, but also on the fluxes of MeV electrons from the radiation belts, and the ionospheric potentials generated by the solar wind, that can vary independently of the GCR flux. The roles of GCR and Jz in cloud processes are the speculative links in a series connecting solar activity, the solar wind, GCR, clouds and climate. This article reviews the correlated cloud variations and the two mechanisms proposed as possible explanations for these links. |
CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling
Abstract In 1997, after almost forty years since the initial attempt by Benioff et al (1959), continuous free oscillations of the Earth were discovered. Spheroidal fundamental modes between 2 and 7 millihertz are excited continuously with acceleration amplitudes of about 0.3–0.5 nanogals. The signal is now commonly found in virtually all data recorded by STS-1 type broadband seismometers at quiet sites. Seasonal variation in amplitude and the existence of two coupled modes between the atmosphere and the solid Earth support that these oscillations are excited by the atmosphere. Stochastic excitation due to atmospheric turbulence is a favored mechanism, providing a good match between theory and data. The atmosphere has ample energy to support this theory because excitation of these modes require only 500–10000 W whereas the atmosphere contains about 1017W of kinetic energy. An application of this phenomenon includes planetary seismology, because other planets may be oscillating owing to atmospheric excitation. The interior structure of planets could be learned by determining the eigenfrequencies in the continuous free oscillations. It is especially attractive to pursue this idea for tectonically quiet planets, since quakes may be too infrequent to be recorded by seismic instruments.
A case study of low-frequency waves at the magnetopause
QUOTE
Abstract. We present the study of one of the first magnetopause crossings observed by the four Cluster spacecraft simultaneously, on 10 December 2000. Although the delays between the crossings are very short, the features of the boundary appear quite different as seen by the different spacecraft, strongly suggesting the presence of a local curvature of the magnetopause at that time. The small-scale fluctuations observed by the STAFF search-coil experiment are
placed in relation to this context. A preliminary investigation of their behaviour on the boundary and in the neighbourhood magnetosheath is performed in comparison with the theoretical model of Belmont and Rezeau (2001), which describes the interaction of waves with the boundary.
placed in relation to this context. A preliminary investigation of their behaviour on the boundary and in the neighbourhood magnetosheath is performed in comparison with the theoretical model of Belmont and Rezeau (2001), which describes the interaction of waves with the boundary.
Because of the current interest in Global warming, there is also a lot of information on the SEC, and solar cycle/Earth weather relationship.
To the question of the Sun's modes being the ringing of a bell, and the solar flare connection, keep in mind that the ringing can be from a single "strike", as you are thinking, or from a consistent series of smaller ones.
Evidence that solar flares drive global oscillations in the Sun
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Abstract. We present the study of one of the first magnetopause crossings observed by the four Cluster spacecraft simultaneously, on 10 December 2000. Although the delays between the crossings are very short, the features of the boundary appear quite different as seen by the different spacecraft, strongly suggesting the presence of a local curvature of the magnetopause at that time. The small-scale fluctuations observed by the STAFF search-coil experiment are placed in relation to this context. A preliminary investigation of their behaviour on the boundary and in the neighbourhood magnetosheath is performed in comparison with the theoretical model of Belmont and Rezeau (2001), which describes the interaction of waves with the boundary. |
Because of the current interest in Global warming, there is also a lot of information on the SEC, and solar cycle/Earth weather relationship.
To the question of the Sun's modes being the ringing of a bell, and the solar flare connection, keep in mind that the ringing can be from a single "strike", as you are thinking, or from a consistent series of smaller ones.
Evidence that solar flares drive global oscillations in the Sun
ABSTRACT
Solar flares are large explosions on the Suns surface caused by a sudden release of magnetic energy. They are known to cause local short-lived oscillations travelling away from the explosion like water rings. Here we show that the energy in the solar acoustic spectrum is correlated with flares. This means that the flares drive global oscillations in the Sun in the same way that the entire Earth is set ringing for several weeks after a major earthquake like the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake. The correlation between flares and energy in the acoustic spectrum of disk-integrated sunlight is stronger for high-frequency waves than for ordinary pmodes which are excited by the turbulence in the near surface convection zone immediately beneath the photosphere.
BAYESIAN INFERENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS OF SOLAR-LIKE OSCILLATIONS
QUOTE
ABSTRACT
Stellar oscillations can provide a wealth of information about a star, which can be extracted from observed time series of the star’s brightness or radial velocity. In this paper we address the question of how to extract as much information as possible from such a dataset. We have developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) code that is able to infer the number of oscillation frequencies present
in the signal and their values (with corresponding uncertainties), without having to fit the amplitudes and phases. Gaps in the data do not have any serious consequences for this method; in cases where severe aliasing exists, any ambiguity in the frequency determinations will be reflected in the results. It also allows us to infer parameters of the frequency pattern, such as the large separation ν. We have previously applied this method to the star ν Indi (Bedding et al. 2006), and here we describe the method fully and apply it to simulated datasets, showing that the code is able to give correct results even when some of the model assumptions are violated. In particular, the non-sinusoidal nature of the individual oscillation modes due to stochastic excitation and damping has no major impact on the usefulness of our approach.
Stellar oscillations can provide a wealth of information about a star, which can be extracted from observed time series of the star’s brightness or radial velocity. In this paper we address the question of how to extract as much information as possible from such a dataset. We have developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) code that is able to infer the number of oscillation frequencies present
in the signal and their values (with corresponding uncertainties), without having to fit the amplitudes and phases. Gaps in the data do not have any serious consequences for this method; in cases where severe aliasing exists, any ambiguity in the frequency determinations will be reflected in the results. It also allows us to infer parameters of the frequency pattern, such as the large separation ν. We have previously applied this method to the star ν Indi (Bedding et al. 2006), and here we describe the method fully and apply it to simulated datasets, showing that the code is able to give correct results even when some of the model assumptions are violated. In particular, the non-sinusoidal nature of the individual oscillation modes due to stochastic excitation and damping has no major impact on the usefulness of our approach.
Are solar granules the only source of acoustic oscillations?
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| ABSTRACT Stellar oscillations can provide a wealth of information about a star, which can be extracted from observed time series of the star’s brightness or radial velocity. In this paper we address the question of how to extract as much information as possible from such a dataset. We have developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) code that is able to infer the number of oscillation frequencies present in the signal and their values (with corresponding uncertainties), without having to fit the amplitudes and phases. Gaps in the data do not have any serious consequences for this method; in cases where severe aliasing exists, any ambiguity in the frequency determinations will be reflected in the results. It also allows us to infer parameters of the frequency pattern, such as the large separation ν. We have previously applied this method to the star ν Indi (Bedding et al. 2006), and here we describe the method fully and apply it to simulated datasets, showing that the code is able to give correct results even when some of the model assumptions are violated. In particular, the non-sinusoidal nature of the individual oscillation modes due to stochastic excitation and damping has no major impact on the usefulness of our approach. |
Are solar granules the only source of acoustic oscillations?
Abstract. The excitation mechanism of low degree acoustic modes is investigated through the analysis of the stochastic time variations of their energy. The correlation between the energies of two different modes is interpreted as the signature of the occurrence rate of their excitation source. The different correlations determined by Foglizzo et al. (1998) constrain the physical properties of an hypothetical source of excitation, which would act in addition to the classical excitation by the turbulent convection. Particular attention is drawn to the effect of coronal mass ejections. The variability of their occurrence rate with the solar cycle could account for the variation of the correlation between IPHIR and GOLF data. Such an interpretation would suggest that the mean correlation between low degree acoustic modes is at least 0:2% at solar minimum.
Also, we have to turn our concept of "velocity" on its head (ie. inverse), when dealing with these very low frequencies. Velocity is distance over time, but in this case, we must put time over distance (inverse period). Then, we still increase the distance parameter, and we arrive at the faster moving velocities coinciding with the lower frequencies. In a sphere, the frequency gets lower as you go towards the center. The modes get further apart, and this has several effects. For example, a 1000 Hz (acoustic) wave (ignoring spreading) will lose 90% of its energy in 7km (travelling at sea level). A 1 Hz wave can travel 3000km, and a .1 Hz can travel around the world, before losing 90% of its energy. The absorption increases as the square of the frequency.
Soundhertz, I will answer your question(s) in my next post.
Regards,
T.Roc
Hi Troc.
I have been wanting to comment on something you said in your last post, but I haven't had time yet. Hopefully will someday?
but in the meantime, I wanted to wish you "be safe", it seems your corner of the world is rather busy lately. I hope everything is okay for you!
I have been wanting to comment on something you said in your last post, but I haven't had time yet. Hopefully will someday?
but in the meantime, I wanted to wish you "be safe", it seems your corner of the world is rather busy lately. I hope everything is okay for you!
Hi all,
"THEY",
Thanks for the concern; all is well here.
"THEY" Posted on Apr 18 2008, 02:28 PM
soundhertz (PM) Apr 29 2008, 10:36 PM
soundhertz (PM) Apr 29 2008, 10:36 PM ..do you think that sunspots of opposite polarity (which happen at the nadir) occurring at the same time would contribute anything to the mix?
Most of you already know this, but I am a firm believer in the inter-connectedness of all things. It is hard to give an answer, in the "cause and effect" terms that we are used to seeing things in, but these things are "connected" in a non-linear, indirect fashion. There is a lot of work being done on this connectivity in our Solar system, and much of it is stating that this is the case. The planets (obviously including Earth) having an effect on Solar activity, and Solar activity having an effect on the Planets. Newton working out the effect of the Planets (mainly Saturn and Jupiter) on the barycenter of the Solar system, causing variation in the position of the Sun, over 300 years ago. The connection between Solar cycles, and certain positions of Planets has also been noted for some time.
Jupiter perihelion 11.8 years
Jupiter-Venus-Earth syzygy 11.07 years
Jupiter-Saturn conjunction 9.9 years
etc.
In the New Scientist, March 20, 2004 edition, there is an article titled "Jupiter's influence", that is worth reading (subscription or library).
Solar cycle 24 has been an oddity, and there are conflicting explanations for it.
Some are calling for an increase in activity, and global temperatures with it. Others are saying that we are entering another minimum, and our warming period is over, and a little ice age is on the way.
I have noted that CH cause lower temperatures upon arrival of the SW to our atmosphere; and obviously flares and spots do the opposite. I am working on a large comparison of data between spots and holes; to see if we get any change in CH with the swing of the Solar cycles. Of course, I am also recording EQ and Volcanic activity against this same pattern. As I have said before, there is definitely a correlation with higher geologic activity and more CHs. One thing is, that with flares and spots, we have accompanying light, which alters the electron diffusion region. This is not well understood yet, but I am offering it as a reason why flares, which have much higher winds than CHs, do not seem to have the same terrestrial effect.
Cluster result impacts future missions
23 Jan 2008
Solar cycle 24 has been an oddity, and there are conflicting explanations for it.
Some are calling for an increase in activity, and global temperatures with it. Others are saying that we are entering another minimum, and our warming period is over, and a little ice age is on the way.
I have noted that CH cause lower temperatures upon arrival of the SW to our atmosphere; and obviously flares and spots do the opposite. I am working on a large comparison of data between spots and holes; to see if we get any change in CH with the swing of the Solar cycles. Of course, I am also recording EQ and Volcanic activity against this same pattern. As I have said before, there is definitely a correlation with higher geologic activity and more CHs. One thing is, that with flares and spots, we have accompanying light, which alters the electron diffusion region. This is not well understood yet, but I am offering it as a reason why flares, which have much higher winds than CHs, do not seem to have the same terrestrial effect.
Cluster result impacts future missions
23 Jan 2008
Theoreticians until very recently thought that the electron diffusion region in the Earth's magnetosphere was a 'tiny' region of width ~2 km and length ~10 km.
But as computer power has increased, theorists made their two dimensional (2-D) simulation domains larger. They then discovered unexpectedly that the electron diffusion region is much more elongated than seen in earlier simulations..
On 14 January 2003, the four ESA/NASA Cluster satellites were crossing the magnetosheath, a turbulent plasma region located just outside the Earth's magnetosphere, when they encountered an electron diffusion region. Not only did Cluster confirm the existence of an elongated electron diffusion region (Image 1), but the length observed by Cluster is 3000 km, or 300 times longer than the earlier theoretical expectations and even four times longer than seen in recent simulations.
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/in...fobjectid=42208
Current events:
(soundhertz) Reno?
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/in...fobjectid=42208
Current events:
(soundhertz) Reno?
Even though the rates of earthquakes are down some from yesterday, it is not possible to guess the direction that this sequence will take in the next few days. The sequence has shown slowdowns of rates in the past, only to accelerate again later on. Even if the rates of small earthquakes should increase, a larger earthquake is not inevitable, although it may be statistically more probable. Neither larger earthquakes nor the end of this earthquake swarm can be predicted.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/Rep...st_reno_5_4.pdf
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/mogul.html
This is why I pointed out earlier, that the indications were of deeper magma movement. The local forecast (Nevada) is not concerned as to where it might be going, as long as it is not there. See my previous post < link >, as to this large, multi state region, that is going through very unusual activity as a whole. The ANSS map ( link ) which was averaging 600 events in a given week 2 years ago, then up to 800, 1 year ago, then I thought it was really high at 1000. Then 1200; last week 1400, and today 1595. The entire state of Nevada is experiencing "swarm-like" conditions, AFAIK. Utah has a much higher than average, and Oregon, Washington and Montana/Wyoming (Yellowstone) all are up too. Not to mention the Mississippi River region.
Offshore Oregon swarms:
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/mogul.html
This is why I pointed out earlier, that the indications were of deeper magma movement. The local forecast (Nevada) is not concerned as to where it might be going, as long as it is not there. See my previous post < link >, as to this large, multi state region, that is going through very unusual activity as a whole. The ANSS map ( link ) which was averaging 600 events in a given week 2 years ago, then up to 800, 1 year ago, then I thought it was really high at 1000. Then 1200; last week 1400, and today 1595. The entire state of Nevada is experiencing "swarm-like" conditions, AFAIK. Utah has a much higher than average, and Oregon, Washington and Montana/Wyoming (Yellowstone) all are up too. Not to mention the Mississippi River region.
Offshore Oregon swarms:
The earthquake swarms north of the Blanco Transform and on the northern Gorda Ridge segment have subsided and seismicity is at background levels. Overall, it was a very interesting progression of seismicity, beginning with an intense, 10-day intraplate swarm north of the central Blanco Transform. This was followed over the next week by magnitude 5 earthquakes (with aftershocks) at the Cascadia basin (central BTF) and along the eastern Blanco Transform. Then surprisingly during the response cruise, another intense earthquake swarm began on the northern Gorda Ridge segment adjacent to the Blanco Transform. The Gorda swarm produced >1000 detected earthquakes over the 5 day duration of the event, with earthquakes distributed from the mid-segment high to north along the rift-zone.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/vents/events/oreg...s-synopsis.html
This was dated May 2, 2008. They too are only looking at local conditions, and not any larger connection. There were more quakes offshore of Oregon since then, including a 4.6 and a 4.6 near Bandon. The "maupin swarm" also continues.
Also of interest:
Future Eruptions in California's Long Valley Area—What's Likely?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs073-97/
http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects...ta/hotspots.htm
And, the of course "mirror" region of California/Oregon border area.
I reported early this year on the eruption of Llaima in Chile. Now, with only a 1 day warning (a 4.1, 4.9, and 5.3 EQ), a dormant (7400 yrs) Volcano, "Chaiten" erupted on May 2. We need more notice than this! Also the Ubinas Volcano in Peru erupted in this time-frame, and before that, Nevado del Huila in Columbia, as well as Kilauea, Hawaii.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
http://www.boston.com/news/world/latinamer...ages_evacuated/
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=chile-...eruption&sc=rss
regards,
T.Roc
"THEY",
Thanks for the concern; all is well here.
"THEY" Posted on Apr 18 2008, 02:28 PM
QUOTE
It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun.
soundhertz (PM) Apr 29 2008, 10:36 PM
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| It seems the same energy from solar flares that appears to be connected to earthquakes on earth, is started by an earthquake on the sun. |
soundhertz (PM) Apr 29 2008, 10:36 PM ..do you think that sunspots of opposite polarity (which happen at the nadir) occurring at the same time would contribute anything to the mix?
Most of you already know this, but I am a firm believer in the inter-connectedness of all things. It is hard to give an answer, in the "cause and effect" terms that we are used to seeing things in, but these things are "connected" in a non-linear, indirect fashion. There is a lot of work being done on this connectivity in our Solar system, and much of it is stating that this is the case. The planets (obviously including Earth) having an effect on Solar activity, and Solar activity having an effect on the Planets. Newton working out the effect of the Planets (mainly Saturn and Jupiter) on the barycenter of the Solar system, causing variation in the position of the Sun, over 300 years ago. The connection between Solar cycles, and certain positions of Planets has also been noted for some time.
Jupiter perihelion 11.8 years
Jupiter-Venus-Earth syzygy 11.07 years
Jupiter-Saturn conjunction 9.9 years
etc.
In the New Scientist, March 20, 2004 edition, there is an article titled "Jupiter's influence", that is worth reading (subscription or library).
QUOTE
What we may be seeing, therefore, is the direct influence of planetary tidal forces and their effects on the stability of the magnetic loops created in the meridional flows in the sun's convective layer. These forces could be a major factor in the cycle of magnetic loops believed to create the sunspots.
Solar cycle 24 has been an oddity, and there are conflicting explanations for it.
Some are calling for an increase in activity, and global temperatures with it. Others are saying that we are entering another minimum, and our warming period is over, and a little ice age is on the way.
I have noted that CH cause lower temperatures upon arrival of the SW to our atmosphere; and obviously flares and spots do the opposite. I am working on a large comparison of data between spots and holes; to see if we get any change in CH with the swing of the Solar cycles. Of course, I am also recording EQ and Volcanic activity against this same pattern. As I have said before, there is definitely a correlation with higher geologic activity and more CHs. One thing is, that with flares and spots, we have accompanying light, which alters the electron diffusion region. This is not well understood yet, but I am offering it as a reason why flares, which have much higher winds than CHs, do not seem to have the same terrestrial effect.
Cluster result impacts future missions
23 Jan 2008
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| What we may be seeing, therefore, is the direct influence of planetary tidal forces and their effects on the stability of the magnetic loops created in the meridional flows in the sun's convective layer. These forces could be a major factor in the cycle of magnetic loops believed to create the sunspots. |
Solar cycle 24 has been an oddity, and there are conflicting explanations for it.
Some are calling for an increase in activity, and global temperatures with it. Others are saying that we are entering another minimum, and our warming period is over, and a little ice age is on the way.
I have noted that CH cause lower temperatures upon arrival of the SW to our atmosphere; and obviously flares and spots do the opposite. I am working on a large comparison of data between spots and holes; to see if we get any change in CH with the swing of the Solar cycles. Of course, I am also recording EQ and Volcanic activity against this same pattern. As I have said before, there is definitely a correlation with higher geologic activity and more CHs. One thing is, that with flares and spots, we have accompanying light, which alters the electron diffusion region. This is not well understood yet, but I am offering it as a reason why flares, which have much higher winds than CHs, do not seem to have the same terrestrial effect.
Cluster result impacts future missions
23 Jan 2008
Theoreticians until very recently thought that the electron diffusion region in the Earth's magnetosphere was a 'tiny' region of width ~2 km and length ~10 km.
But as computer power has increased, theorists made their two dimensional (2-D) simulation domains larger. They then discovered unexpectedly that the electron diffusion region is much more elongated than seen in earlier simulations..
On 14 January 2003, the four ESA/NASA Cluster satellites were crossing the magnetosheath, a turbulent plasma region located just outside the Earth's magnetosphere, when they encountered an electron diffusion region. Not only did Cluster confirm the existence of an elongated electron diffusion region (Image 1), but the length observed by Cluster is 3000 km, or 300 times longer than the earlier theoretical expectations and even four times longer than seen in recent simulations.
QUOTE
Cluster was able to detect the electron diffusion region based on its high-resolution magnetic field, electric field and ion measurements. But to finally understand the fundamental physics of the electron diffusion region (which is ultimately responsible for reconnection), one needs to perform electron measurements with higher time resolution, capable of resolving this thin but long layer. The four spacecraft of the NASA Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission (MMS) are being designed to make such measurements. This mission is planned for launch in 2014. Following MMS is a mission called Cross-Scale, which comprises 12 spacecraft to simultaneously watch the diffusion region and measure the global consequences of energy released by reconnection. Cross-Scale is currently under study at ESA in collaboration with other space agencies as part of a competitive selection process for the mid-2017 launch slot in ESA's science programme "Cosmic Vision 2015-2025".
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/in...fobjectid=42208
Current events:
(soundhertz) Reno?
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Cluster was able to detect the electron diffusion region based on its high-resolution magnetic field, electric field and ion measurements. But to finally understand the fundamental physics of the electron diffusion region (which is ultimately responsible for reconnection), one needs to perform electron measurements with higher time resolution, capable of resolving this thin but long layer. The four spacecraft of the NASA Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission (MMS) are being designed to make such measurements. This mission is planned for launch in 2014. Following MMS is a mission called Cross-Scale, which comprises 12 spacecraft to simultaneously watch the diffusion region and measure the global consequences of energy released by reconnection. Cross-Scale is currently under study at ESA in collaboration with other space agencies as part of a competitive selection process for the mid-2017 launch slot in ESA's science programme "Cosmic Vision 2015-2025". |
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/in...fobjectid=42208
Current events:
(soundhertz) Reno?
Even though the rates of earthquakes are down some from yesterday, it is not possible to guess the direction that this sequence will take in the next few days. The sequence has shown slowdowns of rates in the past, only to accelerate again later on. Even if the rates of small earthquakes should increase, a larger earthquake is not inevitable, although it may be statistically more probable. Neither larger earthquakes nor the end of this earthquake swarm can be predicted.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/Rep...st_reno_5_4.pdf
QUOTE
The location and mechanisms of these earthquakes all indicate that they are not related to volcanic activity.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/mogul.html
This is why I pointed out earlier, that the indications were of deeper magma movement. The local forecast (Nevada) is not concerned as to where it might be going, as long as it is not there. See my previous post < link >, as to this large, multi state region, that is going through very unusual activity as a whole. The ANSS map ( link ) which was averaging 600 events in a given week 2 years ago, then up to 800, 1 year ago, then I thought it was really high at 1000. Then 1200; last week 1400, and today 1595. The entire state of Nevada is experiencing "swarm-like" conditions, AFAIK. Utah has a much higher than average, and Oregon, Washington and Montana/Wyoming (Yellowstone) all are up too. Not to mention the Mississippi River region.
Offshore Oregon swarms:
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| The location and mechanisms of these earthquakes all indicate that they are not related to volcanic activity. |
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/mogul.html
This is why I pointed out earlier, that the indications were of deeper magma movement. The local forecast (Nevada) is not concerned as to where it might be going, as long as it is not there. See my previous post < link >, as to this large, multi state region, that is going through very unusual activity as a whole. The ANSS map ( link ) which was averaging 600 events in a given week 2 years ago, then up to 800, 1 year ago, then I thought it was really high at 1000. Then 1200; last week 1400, and today 1595. The entire state of Nevada is experiencing "swarm-like" conditions, AFAIK. Utah has a much higher than average, and Oregon, Washington and Montana/Wyoming (Yellowstone) all are up too. Not to mention the Mississippi River region.
Offshore Oregon swarms:
The earthquake swarms north of the Blanco Transform and on the northern Gorda Ridge segment have subsided and seismicity is at background levels. Overall, it was a very interesting progression of seismicity, beginning with an intense, 10-day intraplate swarm north of the central Blanco Transform. This was followed over the next week by magnitude 5 earthquakes (with aftershocks) at the Cascadia basin (central BTF) and along the eastern Blanco Transform. Then surprisingly during the response cruise, another intense earthquake swarm began on the northern Gorda Ridge segment adjacent to the Blanco Transform. The Gorda swarm produced >1000 detected earthquakes over the 5 day duration of the event, with earthquakes distributed from the mid-segment high to north along the rift-zone.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/vents/events/oreg...s-synopsis.html
This was dated May 2, 2008. They too are only looking at local conditions, and not any larger connection. There were more quakes offshore of Oregon since then, including a 4.6 and a 4.6 near Bandon. The "maupin swarm" also continues.
Also of interest:
Future Eruptions in California's Long Valley Area—What's Likely?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs073-97/
http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects...ta/hotspots.htm
And, the of course "mirror" region of California/Oregon border area.
I reported early this year on the eruption of Llaima in Chile. Now, with only a 1 day warning (a 4.1, 4.9, and 5.3 EQ), a dormant (7400 yrs) Volcano, "Chaiten" erupted on May 2. We need more notice than this! Also the Ubinas Volcano in Peru erupted in this time-frame, and before that, Nevado del Huila in Columbia, as well as Kilauea, Hawaii.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
http://www.boston.com/news/world/latinamer...ages_evacuated/
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=chile-...eruption&sc=rss
regards,
T.Roc
Hi Troc, glad to hear you are safe!
Finally had a moment to re-read last weeks post (and todays) and remembered what it was that I had wanted to bring up. When you were talking about the Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse, that story was always told by me and my family as we were driving over the bridge. (insert evil grin) But I remember when I was little, and my family was explaining the HOW of the bridge collapse, we got into a discussion on resonance. One thing that was mentioned was that you could tap a pane of glass in the center at a certain rhythm and for a certain length of time and eventually so much resonance would be created in the glass that it would break the structure of the crystals, and eventually shatter the glass.
So now bringing this back full circle to earthquakes, (volcanoes) and the sun connection, is there a way of adding harmonics to the mix to break the resonance??? I know earth wants to move, and will have earthquakes and volcanoes when ever it darned feels like, but could we lessen the impact? Or put it off for a day or two until we can evacuate? Just by adding to the mix? Could be a thought for a few hundred years in our future.
Finally had a moment to re-read last weeks post (and todays) and remembered what it was that I had wanted to bring up. When you were talking about the Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse, that story was always told by me and my family as we were driving over the bridge. (insert evil grin) But I remember when I was little, and my family was explaining the HOW of the bridge collapse, we got into a discussion on resonance. One thing that was mentioned was that you could tap a pane of glass in the center at a certain rhythm and for a certain length of time and eventually so much resonance would be created in the glass that it would break the structure of the crystals, and eventually shatter the glass.
So now bringing this back full circle to earthquakes, (volcanoes) and the sun connection, is there a way of adding harmonics to the mix to break the resonance??? I know earth wants to move, and will have earthquakes and volcanoes when ever it darned feels like, but could we lessen the impact? Or put it off for a day or two until we can evacuate? Just by adding to the mix? Could be a thought for a few hundred years in our future.
Hi everyone,
OK, first I'll narrow this down. I can't imagine doing anything about volcanoes (or volcano related EQ's).
OK, first I'll narrow this down. I can't imagine doing anything about volcanoes (or volcano related EQ's).
..could we lessen the impact? .. Or put it off for a day or two until we can evacuate?
From the "a few hundred years in our future" perspective, we might possibly produce a grand HAARP type project, to alter the eigenstate of a particular region of the ionosphere that we calculated to be at risk. The problem is energy conservation. Would trading an EQ for a few Hurricanes or Cyclones be worth it? If we managed to have the energy "bypass" the sun-side, we would have to face it again, if a tail-side reconnection happened. Then, the location would change anyway, so again, we would be just trading catastrophes. The sunward side of the magnetosphere seems much better suited for dissipating this energy than the tail (dark side).
If I had to wildly speculate, my best guess is that we could construct huge "earthquake rods", that would operate like lightning rods, or antenna for sub-infrasonic waves. That way, say in the middle of the Sahara, or other unpopulated areas (we would need several, at different locations around the World), we could alter the resonance of the ionosphere, in the region where we calculated the "CHEP" to be directed, and close to above an "EQ rod", and direct the energy there. Right now this is impossible. We have no means of absorbing such low frequencies (<< ELF), although HAARP does produce them as a secondary (harmonic) modulation, in the ionosphere/atmosphere regions. If it worked, it seems like it would also likely destroy the equipment!
In the end, I don't put much faith in such ideas, though. These things all happen in such a way that creates the World that we need to live in. If we start tampering with the system, we are likely to generate worse disasters than we originally set out to avoid. I think people will always have to face a degree of hazards of this sort. Better building practices, and prediction methods seem to be the best we can hope for.
A recap for the Pacific NW, USA activity: I noted 2 EQ's had occurred since the NOAA/USGS response team posted their synopsis. They've added a short update to cover these.
5/6/2008 Update:
The North Gorda swarm essentially stopped as of last week, but interestingly there have been two large events (magnitude 4.6 and 4.5) in the north segment valley (42-52'N, 126-42'W) in the last two days. These large earthquakes were fairly isolated events, probably representing continued crustal deformation in response to the swarm of 22-25 April.
Some recent activity:
2.9 2008/05/07 22:04:18 43.06N 126.32W 10 OFF COAST OF OREGON
4.3 2008/05/13 04:07:39 40.80 125.37 10 OFFSHORE N. CALIFORNIA
2.9 2008/05/17 12:23:35 48.395 -124.637 46.9 STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA, WASHINGTON
3.7 2008/05/18 22:19:55 46.168 -119.550 20.1 WASHINGTON
- higher than normal levels in both Oregon and Washington continue.
On May 8th, Nevada posted an update on a small (3.8) EQ on the 7th.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/Rep...se_5_8_2008.pdf. The Wells swarm has subsided, but Nevada continues with much higher activity, state-wide.
The much higher activity levels have gone down (US); the ANSS map has gone down to (still higher than "normal") about 930 events.
And, some of the "mirror" zone to the PacNW: (90 deg, 1/4 mode harmonic)
5.0 2008/05/08 00:27:22 21.98S 68.83W 111 5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
4.7 2008/05/10 10:48:21 22.20S 68.32W 117 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
4.3 2008/05/11 10:17:52 17.55S 69.23W 166 4.3 LA PAZ, BOLIVIA
4.7 2008/05/11 10:48:29 28.88S 71.32W 27 ATACAMA, CHILE
4.6 2008/05/16 02:02:21 -31.083 -70.472 95.2 COQUIMBO, CHILE
4.2 2008/05/18 10:59:51 -24.073 -66.731 179.1 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.0 2008/05/18 17:14:49 -30.968 -71.816 35.0 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
I have left off the Chaiten activity, as well as Sichuan, China, for a separate post.
more soon..
T.Roc
QUOTE
"THEY" -
So now bringing this back full circle to earthquakes, (volcanoes) and the sun connection, is there a way of adding harmonics to the mix to break the resonance???
So now bringing this back full circle to earthquakes, (volcanoes) and the sun connection, is there a way of adding harmonics to the mix to break the resonance???
OK, first I'll narrow this down. I can't imagine doing anything about volcanoes (or volcano related EQ's).
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| "THEY" - So now bringing this back full circle to earthquakes, (volcanoes) and the sun connection, is there a way of adding harmonics to the mix to break the resonance??? |
OK, first I'll narrow this down. I can't imagine doing anything about volcanoes (or volcano related EQ's).
..could we lessen the impact? .. Or put it off for a day or two until we can evacuate?
From the "a few hundred years in our future" perspective, we might possibly produce a grand HAARP type project, to alter the eigenstate of a particular region of the ionosphere that we calculated to be at risk. The problem is energy conservation. Would trading an EQ for a few Hurricanes or Cyclones be worth it? If we managed to have the energy "bypass" the sun-side, we would have to face it again, if a tail-side reconnection happened. Then, the location would change anyway, so again, we would be just trading catastrophes. The sunward side of the magnetosphere seems much better suited for dissipating this energy than the tail (dark side).
If I had to wildly speculate, my best guess is that we could construct huge "earthquake rods", that would operate like lightning rods, or antenna for sub-infrasonic waves. That way, say in the middle of the Sahara, or other unpopulated areas (we would need several, at different locations around the World), we could alter the resonance of the ionosphere, in the region where we calculated the "CHEP" to be directed, and close to above an "EQ rod", and direct the energy there. Right now this is impossible. We have no means of absorbing such low frequencies (<< ELF), although HAARP does produce them as a secondary (harmonic) modulation, in the ionosphere/atmosphere regions. If it worked, it seems like it would also likely destroy the equipment!
In the end, I don't put much faith in such ideas, though. These things all happen in such a way that creates the World that we need to live in. If we start tampering with the system, we are likely to generate worse disasters than we originally set out to avoid. I think people will always have to face a degree of hazards of this sort. Better building practices, and prediction methods seem to be the best we can hope for.
A recap for the Pacific NW, USA activity: I noted 2 EQ's had occurred since the NOAA/USGS response team posted their synopsis. They've added a short update to cover these.
QUOTE
5/6/2008 Update:
The North Gorda swarm essentially stopped as of last week, but interestingly there have been two large events (magnitude 4.6 and 4.5) in the north segment valley (42-52'N, 126-42'W) in the last two days. These large earthquakes were fairly isolated events, probably representing continued crustal deformation in response to the swarm of 22-25 April.
Some recent activity:
2.9 2008/05/07 22:04:18 43.06N 126.32W 10 OFF COAST OF OREGON
4.3 2008/05/13 04:07:39 40.80 125.37 10 OFFSHORE N. CALIFORNIA
2.9 2008/05/17 12:23:35 48.395 -124.637 46.9 STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA, WASHINGTON
3.7 2008/05/18 22:19:55 46.168 -119.550 20.1 WASHINGTON
- higher than normal levels in both Oregon and Washington continue.
On May 8th, Nevada posted an update on a small (3.8) EQ on the 7th.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/Rep...se_5_8_2008.pdf. The Wells swarm has subsided, but Nevada continues with much higher activity, state-wide.
The much higher activity levels have gone down (US); the ANSS map has gone down to (still higher than "normal") about 930 events.
And, some of the "mirror" zone to the PacNW: (90 deg, 1/4 mode harmonic)
5.0 2008/05/08 00:27:22 21.98S 68.83W 111 5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
4.7 2008/05/10 10:48:21 22.20S 68.32W 117 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
4.3 2008/05/11 10:17:52 17.55S 69.23W 166 4.3 LA PAZ, BOLIVIA
4.7 2008/05/11 10:48:29 28.88S 71.32W 27 ATACAMA, CHILE
4.6 2008/05/16 02:02:21 -31.083 -70.472 95.2 COQUIMBO, CHILE
4.2 2008/05/18 10:59:51 -24.073 -66.731 179.1 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
5.0 2008/05/18 17:14:49 -30.968 -71.816 35.0 OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
I have left off the Chaiten activity, as well as Sichuan, China, for a separate post.
more soon..
T.Roc
Grinding techtonic plates cause quakes. Anything else? Doubtful. Don't mistake coincidence for fact when linking the sun to earth movement.
Great feedback, great post, great spelling on "tectonic".
If you have nothing of substance to contribute, then don't post. If you're here to piss real scientists off, you can get in line.
If you have nothing of substance to contribute, then don't post. If you're here to piss real scientists off, you can get in line.
Hi all,
Skepticism is a good thing, midwestern. But, you should approach it with the same standards that you hope exist in a good theory - with evidence.
Your statement, "Grinding techtonic plates cause quakes" uses the word "cause", but offers none. It is an elementary statement though.
"grinding" = movement
"quakes" = movement
Movement causes movement.
Actually, I find this quite ironic. I remember when plate tectonic theory was introduced, and I remember how it (and the "message bearers") were basically laughed at.
This quote from Wiki sums it up nicely:
(emphasis added)
Your statement also sounds like pre-Copernican astronomy.
Let me run down a few more statements, from that same link above. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_tectonics
(emphasis added)
Your statement also sounds like pre-Copernican astronomy.
Let me run down a few more statements, from that same link above. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_tectonics
John Tuzo Wilson recognized that because of friction, the plates cannot simply glide past each other. Rather, stress builds up in both plates and when it reaches a level that exceeds the strain threshold of rocks on either side of the fault the accumulated potential energy is released as strain. Strain is both accumulative and/or instantaneous depending on the rheology of the rock;
..
The energy released by instantaneous strain release is the cause of earthquakes, a common phenomenon along transform boundaries.
"Stress builds up"; why? Movement causes movement; release causes release? We need to know how and why.
Although subduction is believed to be the strongest force driving plate motions, it cannot be the only force since there are plates such as the North American Plate which are moving, yet are nowhere being subducted.
That's probably a good time for me to include your other comment. "Don't mistake coincidence for fact when linking the sun to earth movement. ". I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume that you do not mean Earth movements like spin, or orbit, or the tides (in combination with the Moon)? That would be denying the existence of gravity. So, in reality, we already have a link between the Sun, and the movement of the Earth. Then, we have plate tectonics (which you apparently support) saying that gravity is one of two forces responsible (friction being the other, and primarily only on the accumulation of stress) for plate movement. Am I starting to sound less "wild"?
That's probably a good time for me to include your other comment. "Don't mistake coincidence for fact when linking the sun to earth movement. ". I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume that you do not mean Earth movements like spin, or orbit, or the tides (in combination with the Moon)? That would be denying the existence of gravity. So, in reality, we already have a link between the Sun, and the movement of the Earth. Then, we have plate tectonics (which you apparently support) saying that gravity is one of two forces responsible (friction being the other, and primarily only on the accumulation of stress) for plate movement. Am I starting to sound less "wild"?
Some early models of plate tectonics envisioned the plates riding on top of convection cells like conveyor belts. However, most scientists working today believe that the asthenosphere is not strong enough to directly cause motion by the friction of such basal forces. Slab pull is most widely thought to be the greatest force acting on the plates. The overall driving force for plate motion and its energy source remain subjects of ongoing research.
The driving forces of plate motion are, nevertheless, still very active subjects of on-going discussion and research in the geophysical community.
Sounds a bit like a broken record. We are still discussing, studying, debating, and researching, because we don't know exactly how and why. When we do, we'll be able to better say when, and save lives.
Yet, the statement: "The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate" must certainly be true. Do we have other masses in our system? Sure do. Can they cause movement of the Earth's plates? I think they can. They cause the Sun (of much greater mass) to orbit in an epitrochoid pattern about the barycenter of our Solar system, that takes ~179 years to complete, the same time it takes for our planets to come back to their same positions, relative to each other. This is not a "tidy" pattern, because we have not included data from bodies outside of our system. The "great inequality" of Jupiter & Saturn dominates this, with every 3 conjunctions (59.6 yrs) putting them "roughly" in the same place. However, it takes 900 years for them to come back to their original inertial reference frame.
This is quite a way off the path of the SEC EQ connection, but I want to show "greater connections", that we have not even begun to associate to our Earth. Do the plates move in some great cycle? Yes, according to theory, they do.
Yet, the statement: "The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate" must certainly be true. Do we have other masses in our system? Sure do. Can they cause movement of the Earth's plates? I think they can. They cause the Sun (of much greater mass) to orbit in an epitrochoid pattern about the barycenter of our Solar system, that takes ~179 years to complete, the same time it takes for our planets to come back to their same positions, relative to each other. This is not a "tidy" pattern, because we have not included data from bodies outside of our system. The "great inequality" of Jupiter & Saturn dominates this, with every 3 conjunctions (59.6 yrs) putting them "roughly" in the same place. However, it takes 900 years for them to come back to their original inertial reference frame.
This is quite a way off the path of the SEC EQ connection, but I want to show "greater connections", that we have not even begun to associate to our Earth. Do the plates move in some great cycle? Yes, according to theory, they do.
The movement of plates has caused the formation and break-up of continents over time, including occasional formation of a supercontinent that contains most or all of the continents. The supercontinent Rodinia is thought to have formed about 1 billion years ago and to have embodied most or all of Earth's continents, and broken up into eight continents around 600 million years ago. The eight continents later re-assembled into another supercontinent called Pangaea; … etc. etc.
Certainly, these are on a time scale much greater than our local system allows. For these scales, we would have to consider our Solar system's movement around the Galactic center. We also have "frame dragging" as a possible very slow accumulative gravitational effect. Those are other conversations entirely.
We have, what should be a "slow, steady pace" of plate movements, being regularly disrupted by large releases. We have our Sun, responsible for "keeping us in place", regularly shocking our magnetopause, whose field lines extend to the core of the Earth. These low frequency magnetic waves cross the radial electric field lines, and could be responsible for generating heat, which in turn causes the above mentioned various tectonic processes. They could also find resonance with the particluar granular rheology of the rocks typically found in faults, and cause the instantaneous release.
from the KEYNOTE SPEECH
from the KEYNOTE SPEECH
Today, we are now embarking on a novel approach to predicting seismic events. Linking geo-electromagnetic phenomena with an impending seismic activity such as an earthquake or tsunami, may seem esoteric for now, even mystical perhaps, most specially for the conservative and classical schools of Seismology. But possibly and most probably, in a few decades from now, the theories that will be presented to us today may be proven to be true indeed. Only the theories founded on extensive and sound research and development would survive the test of time. Only time will tell, if indeed, there is a possible link of geo-electromagnetic activity with seismic activity . Our circumspect collaborative research activities between our local scientists and their Japanese counterparts that will be forged from today’s Workshop will quite definitely serve as input to this growing knowledge of Seismo-Electromagnetics.
from the INTRODUCTION
of the
Proceedings of the International Workshop on Seismo-Electromagnetics, 2006
There are certainly a lot of details to fill in, but for now, I'm just gathering correlated data.
regards,
T.Roc
Skepticism is a good thing, midwestern. But, you should approach it with the same standards that you hope exist in a good theory - with evidence.
Your statement, "Grinding techtonic plates cause quakes" uses the word "cause", but offers none. It is an elementary statement though.
"grinding" = movement
"quakes" = movement
Movement causes movement.
Actually, I find this quite ironic. I remember when plate tectonic theory was introduced, and I remember how it (and the "message bearers") were basically laughed at.
This quote from Wiki sums it up nicely:
QUOTE
Geological paradigm shift
The acceptance of the theories of continental drift and sea floor spreading (the two key elements of plate tectonics) may be compared to the Copernican revolution in astronomy (see Nicolaus Copernicus). Within a matter of only several years geophysics and geology in particular were revolutionized. The parallel is striking: just as pre-Copernican astronomy was highly descriptive but still unable to provide explanations for the motions of celestial objects, pre-tectonic plate geological theories described what was observed but struggled to provide any fundamental mechanisms. The problem lay in the question "How?".
What had been rejected for decades by any respectable scientific journal was eagerly accepted within a few short years in the 1960s and 1970s.
Any geological description before this had been highly descriptive.
The descriptions are still valid. The reasons, however, today sound much like pre-Copernican astronomy.
The acceptance of the theories of continental drift and sea floor spreading (the two key elements of plate tectonics) may be compared to the Copernican revolution in astronomy (see Nicolaus Copernicus). Within a matter of only several years geophysics and geology in particular were revolutionized. The parallel is striking: just as pre-Copernican astronomy was highly descriptive but still unable to provide explanations for the motions of celestial objects, pre-tectonic plate geological theories described what was observed but struggled to provide any fundamental mechanisms. The problem lay in the question "How?".
What had been rejected for decades by any respectable scientific journal was eagerly accepted within a few short years in the 1960s and 1970s.
Any geological description before this had been highly descriptive.
The descriptions are still valid. The reasons, however, today sound much like pre-Copernican astronomy.
(emphasis added)
Your statement also sounds like pre-Copernican astronomy.
Let me run down a few more statements, from that same link above. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_tectonics
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Geological paradigm shift The acceptance of the theories of continental drift and sea floor spreading (the two key elements of plate tectonics) may be compared to the Copernican revolution in astronomy (see Nicolaus Copernicus). Within a matter of only several years geophysics and geology in particular were revolutionized. The parallel is striking: just as pre-Copernican astronomy was highly descriptive but still unable to provide explanations for the motions of celestial objects, pre-tectonic plate geological theories described what was observed but struggled to provide any fundamental mechanisms. The problem lay in the question "How?". What had been rejected for decades by any respectable scientific journal was eagerly accepted within a few short years in the 1960s and 1970s. Any geological description before this had been highly descriptive. The descriptions are still valid. The reasons, however, today sound much like pre-Copernican astronomy. |
(emphasis added)
Your statement also sounds like pre-Copernican astronomy.
Let me run down a few more statements, from that same link above. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plate_tectonics
John Tuzo Wilson recognized that because of friction, the plates cannot simply glide past each other. Rather, stress builds up in both plates and when it reaches a level that exceeds the strain threshold of rocks on either side of the fault the accumulated potential energy is released as strain. Strain is both accumulative and/or instantaneous depending on the rheology of the rock;
..
The energy released by instantaneous strain release is the cause of earthquakes, a common phenomenon along transform boundaries.
"Stress builds up"; why? Movement causes movement; release causes release? We need to know how and why.
QUOTE
Dissipation of heat from the mantle is acknowledged to be the original source of energy driving plate tectonics. The current view, although it is still a matter of some debate, is that excess density of the oceanic lithosphere sinking in subduction zones is the most powerful source of plate motion.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Dissipation of heat from the mantle is acknowledged to be the original source of energy driving plate tectonics. The current view, although it is still a matter of some debate, is that excess density of the oceanic lithosphere sinking in subduction zones is the most powerful source of plate motion. |
Although subduction is believed to be the strongest force driving plate motions, it cannot be the only force since there are plates such as the North American Plate which are moving, yet are nowhere being subducted.
QUOTE
How mantle convection relates directly and indirectly to the motion of the plates is a matter of ongoing study and discussion in geodynamics. Somehow, this energy must be transferred to the lithosphere in order for tectonic plates to move. There are essentially two types of forces that are thought to influence plate motion: friction and gravity.
That's probably a good time for me to include your other comment. "Don't mistake coincidence for fact when linking the sun to earth movement. ". I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume that you do not mean Earth movements like spin, or orbit, or the tides (in combination with the Moon)? That would be denying the existence of gravity. So, in reality, we already have a link between the Sun, and the movement of the Earth. Then, we have plate tectonics (which you apparently support) saying that gravity is one of two forces responsible (friction being the other, and primarily only on the accumulation of stress) for plate movement. Am I starting to sound less "wild"?
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| How mantle convection relates directly and indirectly to the motion of the plates is a matter of ongoing study and discussion in geodynamics. Somehow, this energy must be transferred to the lithosphere in order for tectonic plates to move. There are essentially two types of forces that are thought to influence plate motion: friction and gravity. |
That's probably a good time for me to include your other comment. "Don't mistake coincidence for fact when linking the sun to earth movement. ". I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume that you do not mean Earth movements like spin, or orbit, or the tides (in combination with the Moon)? That would be denying the existence of gravity. So, in reality, we already have a link between the Sun, and the movement of the Earth. Then, we have plate tectonics (which you apparently support) saying that gravity is one of two forces responsible (friction being the other, and primarily only on the accumulation of stress) for plate movement. Am I starting to sound less "wild"?
Some early models of plate tectonics envisioned the plates riding on top of convection cells like conveyor belts. However, most scientists working today believe that the asthenosphere is not strong enough to directly cause motion by the friction of such basal forces. Slab pull is most widely thought to be the greatest force acting on the plates. The overall driving force for plate motion and its energy source remain subjects of ongoing research.
QUOTE
The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate. However, therein remains the problem of to what degree each process contributes to the motion of each tectonic plate.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate. However, therein remains the problem of to what degree each process contributes to the motion of each tectonic plate. |
The driving forces of plate motion are, nevertheless, still very active subjects of on-going discussion and research in the geophysical community.
Sounds a bit like a broken record. We are still discussing, studying, debating, and researching, because we don't know exactly how and why. When we do, we'll be able to better say when, and save lives.
QUOTE
In a study published in the January-February 2006 issue of the Geological Society of America Bulletin, a team of Italian and U.S. scientists argued that the westward component of plates is from Earth's rotation and consequent tidal friction of the moon. As the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, they say, the moon's gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth's surface layer back westward.
Yet, the statement: "The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate" must certainly be true. Do we have other masses in our system? Sure do. Can they cause movement of the Earth's plates? I think they can. They cause the Sun (of much greater mass) to orbit in an epitrochoid pattern about the barycenter of our Solar system, that takes ~179 years to complete, the same time it takes for our planets to come back to their same positions, relative to each other. This is not a "tidy" pattern, because we have not included data from bodies outside of our system. The "great inequality" of Jupiter & Saturn dominates this, with every 3 conjunctions (59.6 yrs) putting them "roughly" in the same place. However, it takes 900 years for them to come back to their original inertial reference frame.
This is quite a way off the path of the SEC EQ connection, but I want to show "greater connections", that we have not even begun to associate to our Earth. Do the plates move in some great cycle? Yes, according to theory, they do.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| In a study published in the January-February 2006 issue of the Geological Society of America Bulletin, a team of Italian and U.S. scientists argued that the westward component of plates is from Earth's rotation and consequent tidal friction of the moon. As the Earth spins eastward beneath the moon, they say, the moon's gravity ever so slightly pulls the Earth's surface layer back westward. |
Yet, the statement: "The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate" must certainly be true. Do we have other masses in our system? Sure do. Can they cause movement of the Earth's plates? I think they can. They cause the Sun (of much greater mass) to orbit in an epitrochoid pattern about the barycenter of our Solar system, that takes ~179 years to complete, the same time it takes for our planets to come back to their same positions, relative to each other. This is not a "tidy" pattern, because we have not included data from bodies outside of our system. The "great inequality" of Jupiter & Saturn dominates this, with every 3 conjunctions (59.6 yrs) putting them "roughly" in the same place. However, it takes 900 years for them to come back to their original inertial reference frame.
This is quite a way off the path of the SEC EQ connection, but I want to show "greater connections", that we have not even begun to associate to our Earth. Do the plates move in some great cycle? Yes, according to theory, they do.
The movement of plates has caused the formation and break-up of continents over time, including occasional formation of a supercontinent that contains most or all of the continents. The supercontinent Rodinia is thought to have formed about 1 billion years ago and to have embodied most or all of Earth's continents, and broken up into eight continents around 600 million years ago. The eight continents later re-assembled into another supercontinent called Pangaea; … etc. etc.
Certainly, these are on a time scale much greater than our local system allows. For these scales, we would have to consider our Solar system's movement around the Galactic center. We also have "frame dragging" as a possible very slow accumulative gravitational effect. Those are other conversations entirely.
We have, what should be a "slow, steady pace" of plate movements, being regularly disrupted by large releases. We have our Sun, responsible for "keeping us in place", regularly shocking our magnetopause, whose field lines extend to the core of the Earth. These low frequency magnetic waves cross the radial electric field lines, and could be responsible for generating heat, which in turn causes the above mentioned various tectonic processes. They could also find resonance with the particluar granular rheology of the rocks typically found in faults, and cause the instantaneous release.
QUOTE
Yet despite several centuries of methodological, scientific research in the fields of geology, earth science and meteorology, our Mother Earth is still presents herself with so much mystery that only recent technological breakthroughs coupled with the latest advances in information and communications technologies are able to unravel. The science of plate tectonics for example, which explains the formation of the continents and formation of landforms through moving crustal plates, is a relatively new discovery only about five decades old. The telltale signs of an apparent link between seismo-electromagnetism and atmospheric activity provide further proof of the many mysteries about planet Earth that lay hidden. Though we have already sent intelligent and intrepid spacecrafts to conquer and explore other worlds beyond ours, much needs to learned, discovered and be made known in this pale blue planet we call Mother Earth.
The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) says that, and I quote “Earthquakes cannot be forecasted with present technology”. This may not be altogether true to date. The recent researches that will be presented today by our distinguished scientists from Japan, and the recent progress that they have made through the years underscores the relevance of such efforts and how such new knowledge and techniques may, eventually, be able to provide the cornerstones for this sunrise field of science called Seismo-Electromagnetics or Lithosphere Weather Forecasting .
Though the main title of today’s workshop banners the immediate seismological applications of this new field of science, there are other interconnections with other phenomena that prove useful to pursue further research and development. Researches that will be presented later in the day, will show that apart from seismo-electromagnetic phenomena occurring in the lithosphere there is evidence of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling.
The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) says that, and I quote “Earthquakes cannot be forecasted with present technology”. This may not be altogether true to date. The recent researches that will be presented today by our distinguished scientists from Japan, and the recent progress that they have made through the years underscores the relevance of such efforts and how such new knowledge and techniques may, eventually, be able to provide the cornerstones for this sunrise field of science called Seismo-Electromagnetics or Lithosphere Weather Forecasting .
Though the main title of today’s workshop banners the immediate seismological applications of this new field of science, there are other interconnections with other phenomena that prove useful to pursue further research and development. Researches that will be presented later in the day, will show that apart from seismo-electromagnetic phenomena occurring in the lithosphere there is evidence of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling.
from the KEYNOTE SPEECH
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Yet despite several centuries of methodological, scientific research in the fields of geology, earth science and meteorology, our Mother Earth is still presents herself with so much mystery that only recent technological breakthroughs coupled with the latest advances in information and communications technologies are able to unravel. The science of plate tectonics for example, which explains the formation of the continents and formation of landforms through moving crustal plates, is a relatively new discovery only about five decades old. The telltale signs of an apparent link between seismo-electromagnetism and atmospheric activity provide further proof of the many mysteries about planet Earth that lay hidden. Though we have already sent intelligent and intrepid spacecrafts to conquer and explore other worlds beyond ours, much needs to learned, discovered and be made known in this pale blue planet we call Mother Earth. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) says that, and I quote “Earthquakes cannot be forecasted with present technology”. This may not be altogether true to date. The recent researches that will be presented today by our distinguished scientists from Japan, and the recent progress that they have made through the years underscores the relevance of such efforts and how such new knowledge and techniques may, eventually, be able to provide the cornerstones for this sunrise field of science called Seismo-Electromagnetics or Lithosphere Weather Forecasting . Though the main title of today’s workshop banners the immediate seismological applications of this new field of science, there are other interconnections with other phenomena that prove useful to pursue further research and development. Researches that will be presented later in the day, will show that apart from seismo-electromagnetic phenomena occurring in the lithosphere there is evidence of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling. |
from the KEYNOTE SPEECH
Today, we are now embarking on a novel approach to predicting seismic events. Linking geo-electromagnetic phenomena with an impending seismic activity such as an earthquake or tsunami, may seem esoteric for now, even mystical perhaps, most specially for the conservative and classical schools of Seismology. But possibly and most probably, in a few decades from now, the theories that will be presented to us today may be proven to be true indeed. Only the theories founded on extensive and sound research and development would survive the test of time. Only time will tell, if indeed, there is a possible link of geo-electromagnetic activity with seismic activity . Our circumspect collaborative research activities between our local scientists and their Japanese counterparts that will be forged from today’s Workshop will quite definitely serve as input to this growing knowledge of Seismo-Electromagnetics.
from the INTRODUCTION
of the
Proceedings of the International Workshop on Seismo-Electromagnetics, 2006
There are certainly a lot of details to fill in, but for now, I'm just gathering correlated data.
regards,
T.Roc
Alas, TRoc shows much more patience than I towards skepticism...
Attacking me is one thing, but attacking my friends is quite another playing field, one which I am far more sensitive to.
TRoc, I will be back to (scientifically) address your previous posts very soon. My life has very recently become far less hectic.
Attacking me is one thing, but attacking my friends is quite another playing field, one which I am far more sensitive to.
TRoc, I will be back to (scientifically) address your previous posts very soon. My life has very recently become far less hectic.
I understand your profound combinations of disproving my simple angle of tectonic activity. Yes, I conclude you have gone to great lengths to throw in additional variables I agree upon with some hesitation. 
Ammunition is the one without much knowledge on most things, sad to say. 
Amonion, Am_ummmumm, or whatever. 
Amonion, Am_ummmumm, or whatever.
QUOTE (TRoc+May 22 2008, 03:34 AM)
Yet, the statement: "The actual vector of a plate's motion must necessarily be a function of all the forces acting upon the plate" must certainly be true. Do we have other masses in our system? Sure do. Can they cause movement of the Earth's plates? I think they can. They cause the Sun (of much greater mass) to orbit in an epitrochoid pattern about the barycenter of our Solar system, that takes ~179 years to complete, the same time it takes for our planets to come back to their same positions, relative to each other. This is not a "tidy" pattern, because we have not included data from bodies outside of our system. The "great inequality" of Jupiter & Saturn dominates this, with every 3 conjunctions (59.6 yrs) putting them "roughly" in the same place. However, it takes 900 years for them to come back to their original inertial reference frame.
I have been meaning to write my own barycenter program, and though I could very likely succeed mathematically, my code writing skills are not up to par, though I am taking classes on this soon.
A study was published last year detailing solar cycle activity dependency on barycenter movement. Mainstream solar physics has oddly been rejecting of this idea in the past, for reasons that I don't understand. If the solar dynamo is generated by turbulence at the tachocline level, and gravity is, in fact, the most prominent force at the distances seen in the solar system, tidal forcing should play a major role in the solar cycle, or else one of our well-established theories could need significant revisions. Perhaps some chaos is a factor as well, but after 4.6 billion years, there must be some patterned contribution from the barycenter oscillations induced by the planets.
Similarly, there are most likely implications on the solar dynamo arising from the Milky Way's intragalactic magnetic field, local hydrogen dust densities, interstellar gravitational fields... objects outside our solar system, as TRoc mentions. I'm hoping Voyagers 1 & 2 and IBEX will help resolve some of these questions.
Anyway, back on the main topic...
Not sure if I've thrown this out here before, but this recent article provides lots of leverage for what TRoc advocates. Combine it with this and you have a damn good reason to start heavily funding research on TRoc's hypothesis.
(Note that there is a strong dependency between auroral and ionospheric activity, not to mention weather, GPS technology, etc. etc.)
To deny the interconnectivity of everything is to have given up on quantification of it... Understanding it fully will enable mankind to save many lives.
I have been meaning to write my own barycenter program, and though I could very likely succeed mathematically, my code writing skills are not up to par, though I am taking classes on this soon.
A study was published last year detailing solar cycle activity dependency on barycenter movement. Mainstream solar physics has oddly been rejecting of this idea in the past, for reasons that I don't understand. If the solar dynamo is generated by turbulence at the tachocline level, and gravity is, in fact, the most prominent force at the distances seen in the solar system, tidal forcing should play a major role in the solar cycle, or else one of our well-established theories could need significant revisions. Perhaps some chaos is a factor as well, but after 4.6 billion years, there must be some patterned contribution from the barycenter oscillations induced by the planets.
Similarly, there are most likely implications on the solar dynamo arising from the Milky Way's intragalactic magnetic field, local hydrogen dust densities, interstellar gravitational fields... objects outside our solar system, as TRoc mentions. I'm hoping Voyagers 1 & 2 and IBEX will help resolve some of these questions.
Anyway, back on the main topic...
QUOTE
We have, what should be a "slow, steady pace" of plate movements, being regularly disrupted by large releases. We have our Sun, responsible for "keeping us in place", regularly shocking our magnetopause, whose field lines extend to the core of the Earth. These low frequency magnetic waves cross the radial electric field lines, and could be responsible for generating heat, which in turn causes the above mentioned various tectonic processes. They could also find resonance with the particluar granular rheology of the rocks typically found in faults, and cause the instantaneous release.
Not sure if I've thrown this out here before, but this recent article provides lots of leverage for what TRoc advocates. Combine it with this and you have a damn good reason to start heavily funding research on TRoc's hypothesis.
(Note that there is a strong dependency between auroral and ionospheric activity, not to mention weather, GPS technology, etc. etc.)
To deny the interconnectivity of everything is to have given up on quantification of it... Understanding it fully will enable mankind to save many lives.
I'm sure TRoc is thrilled at your grandiose acceptance. Stay in school and learn more before postulation.
Stay in school and learn more before postulation.
midwesternyourlookinglikeafool
Hello TRoc, et al.
I have been doing some speculating on the mechanism behind plate tectonics. The idea involves the slowing of the Earth's spin through momentum transfer to the moon. The slowing of the Earth's spin generates a force that tends to move the equatorial crust and mantel towards the poles. The force is generated by "time gradients" developed by both GR and SR. The reduction of the SR component of the "time gradient" corresponds with the reduction of the Earth's rotation.
The "time gradient" attributed to SR is solely based on the radii (and hence relative velocity) from th axis of rotation. On a geoid with a slowing spin this generates a force within the geoid that is greatest at equator.
There is approximately 22km difference between the polar radii and the equatorial radii for the Earth. So basically you have lava flowing down hill and carrying the crust along for a ride. The downward slope of the "hill" is caused by the slowing of Earth's rotation.
Just some thoughts.
I have been doing some speculating on the mechanism behind plate tectonics. The idea involves the slowing of the Earth's spin through momentum transfer to the moon. The slowing of the Earth's spin generates a force that tends to move the equatorial crust and mantel towards the poles. The force is generated by "time gradients" developed by both GR and SR. The reduction of the SR component of the "time gradient" corresponds with the reduction of the Earth's rotation.
The "time gradient" attributed to SR is solely based on the radii (and hence relative velocity) from th axis of rotation. On a geoid with a slowing spin this generates a force within the geoid that is greatest at equator.
There is approximately 22km difference between the polar radii and the equatorial radii for the Earth. So basically you have lava flowing down hill and carrying the crust along for a ride. The downward slope of the "hill" is caused by the slowing of Earth's rotation.
Just some thoughts.
Hi all,
midwestern
Rather neutral, actually. I'm much more excited by hard questions, rejection, etc.
Can you fill me in a little about yourself? Can I assume that you are earning/or have attained a degree in Geo-Science? (since you given this advise to am unition): "Stay in school and learn more before postulation." Do you consider yourself open minded? IE. Do you want to learn new things, or are you sure that you already know? In this case, school won't help any, because you will not find this in any textbook. You will have to read current papers, attend workshops, seminars, etc. Also, current mission reports, and data monitoring.
Rather neutral, actually. I'm much more excited by hard questions, rejection, etc.
Can you fill me in a little about yourself? Can I assume that you are earning/or have attained a degree in Geo-Science? (since you given this advise to am unition): "Stay in school and learn more before postulation." Do you consider yourself open minded? IE. Do you want to learn new things, or are you sure that you already know? In this case, school won't help any, because you will not find this in any textbook. You will have to read current papers, attend workshops, seminars, etc. Also, current mission reports, and data monitoring.
Yes, I conclude you have gone to great lengths to throw in additional variables I agree upon with some hesitation.
Just a little cut & paste from one website, and only one "variable" (though not "additional", it's part of plate tectonics): there is no agreed upon, full explanation for plate movement. More importantly, there is no way, based on the textbook models, to predict earthquakes. Surely, it would be easy to do, if there were a simple, mechanical answer.
Here is another page, saying basically the same thing: http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/unanswered.html.
Professor Seiya Uyeda (Tokai University, Japan), a world-renowned expert in plate tectonics, concluded in his keynote address at a major scientific conference on subduction processes in June 1994 that "subduction . . . plays a more fundamental role than seafloor spreading in shaping the earth's surface features" and "running the plate tectonic machinery." The gravity-controlled sinking ...
Although nothing there supports my postulate, everything there refutes your "black & white" statement asserting the cause of EQ's.
Most of what I put into that longer post was for "other people". For every opinion in a thread response, there are typically several (at least) more who think the same/have the same question, etc.
Only the first statement was especially for you: you did not "explain" anything, with your "simple angle of tectonic activity". You literally just were saying "movement is the cause of movement" (by the basic definitions of the words that you used). You must know that ANY theory that attempts to predict EQ's is going to be "fringe" Science, because it doesn't exist in the standard paradigm. The same goes for the cause of plate movement in general, right now.
That is why I asked if you are open minded - because if you are not, and you are going to disagree only because it is not something that you read in a textbook, then there really is no point in me trying to explain the idea. If you have details, that exclude any postulate of mine, I'll not only consider it, but likely have to "change my mind" on that part. I would expect the same from you, if we are to discuss this further.
Did you read some of the background (linked in the first page), and the first several pages? Specifically, where I have made good predictions? That is where the heart of this is at; the theory development is an attempt to explain the data that has actually been produced.
It's up to you, midwestern. You can disagree with my premise, with nothing more than a "hunch", and we'll leave it at that. Or, we can talk further. It is important to note, that I am not disagreeing with plate tectonic theory, or trying to disprove it. I am trying to add on to what already is known; I am trying to put real EQ prediction "on the table".
am_Unition
Although nothing there supports my postulate, everything there refutes your "black & white" statement asserting the cause of EQ's.
Most of what I put into that longer post was for "other people". For every opinion in a thread response, there are typically several (at least) more who think the same/have the same question, etc.
Only the first statement was especially for you: you did not "explain" anything, with your "simple angle of tectonic activity". You literally just were saying "movement is the cause of movement" (by the basic definitions of the words that you used). You must know that ANY theory that attempts to predict EQ's is going to be "fringe" Science, because it doesn't exist in the standard paradigm. The same goes for the cause of plate movement in general, right now.
That is why I asked if you are open minded - because if you are not, and you are going to disagree only because it is not something that you read in a textbook, then there really is no point in me trying to explain the idea. If you have details, that exclude any postulate of mine, I'll not only consider it, but likely have to "change my mind" on that part. I would expect the same from you, if we are to discuss this further.
Did you read some of the background (linked in the first page), and the first several pages? Specifically, where I have made good predictions? That is where the heart of this is at; the theory development is an attempt to explain the data that has actually been produced.
It's up to you, midwestern. You can disagree with my premise, with nothing more than a "hunch", and we'll leave it at that. Or, we can talk further. It is important to note, that I am not disagreeing with plate tectonic theory, or trying to disprove it. I am trying to add on to what already is known; I am trying to put real EQ prediction "on the table".
am_Unition
Perhaps some chaos is a factor as well, but after 4.6 billion years, there must be some patterned contribution from the barycenter oscillations induced by the planets.
If I'm not mistaken, in this paper, they show some rough patterns - 8 general shapes that repeat. Also, many other time alignments.
Prolonged Minima and the 179 Yr Cycle of the Solar Inertial Motion
Rhodes Fairbridge, James Shirley
regards,
T.Roc
midwestern
QUOTE
I'm sure TRoc is thrilled at your grandiose acceptance.
Rather neutral, actually. I'm much more excited by hard questions, rejection, etc.
Can you fill me in a little about yourself? Can I assume that you are earning/or have attained a degree in Geo-Science? (since you given this advise to am unition): "Stay in school and learn more before postulation." Do you consider yourself open minded? IE. Do you want to learn new things, or are you sure that you already know? In this case, school won't help any, because you will not find this in any textbook. You will have to read current papers, attend workshops, seminars, etc. Also, current mission reports, and data monitoring.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| I'm sure TRoc is thrilled at your grandiose acceptance. |
Rather neutral, actually. I'm much more excited by hard questions, rejection, etc.
Can you fill me in a little about yourself? Can I assume that you are earning/or have attained a degree in Geo-Science? (since you given this advise to am unition): "Stay in school and learn more before postulation." Do you consider yourself open minded? IE. Do you want to learn new things, or are you sure that you already know? In this case, school won't help any, because you will not find this in any textbook. You will have to read current papers, attend workshops, seminars, etc. Also, current mission reports, and data monitoring.
Yes, I conclude you have gone to great lengths to throw in additional variables I agree upon with some hesitation.
Just a little cut & paste from one website, and only one "variable" (though not "additional", it's part of plate tectonics): there is no agreed upon, full explanation for plate movement. More importantly, there is no way, based on the textbook models, to predict earthquakes. Surely, it would be easy to do, if there were a simple, mechanical answer.
Here is another page, saying basically the same thing: http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/unanswered.html.
QUOTE
The tectonic plates do not randomly drift or wander about the Earth's surface; they are driven by definite yet unseen forces. Although scientists can neither precisely describe nor fully understand the forces, most believe ...
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| The tectonic plates do not randomly drift or wander about the Earth's surface; they are driven by definite yet unseen forces. Although scientists can neither precisely describe nor fully understand the forces, most believe ... |
Professor Seiya Uyeda (Tokai University, Japan), a world-renowned expert in plate tectonics, concluded in his keynote address at a major scientific conference on subduction processes in June 1994 that "subduction . . . plays a more fundamental role than seafloor spreading in shaping the earth's surface features" and "running the plate tectonic machinery." The gravity-controlled sinking ...
QUOTE
We know that forces at work deep within the Earth's interior drive plate motion, but we may never fully understand the details. At present, none of the proposed mechanisms can explain all the facets of plate movement; because these forces are buried so deeply, no mechanism can be tested directly and proven beyond reasonable doubt. The fact that the tectonic plates have moved in the past and are still moving today is beyond dispute, but the details of why and how they move will continue to challenge scientists far into the future.
Although nothing there supports my postulate, everything there refutes your "black & white" statement asserting the cause of EQ's.
Most of what I put into that longer post was for "other people". For every opinion in a thread response, there are typically several (at least) more who think the same/have the same question, etc.
Only the first statement was especially for you: you did not "explain" anything, with your "simple angle of tectonic activity". You literally just were saying "movement is the cause of movement" (by the basic definitions of the words that you used). You must know that ANY theory that attempts to predict EQ's is going to be "fringe" Science, because it doesn't exist in the standard paradigm. The same goes for the cause of plate movement in general, right now.
That is why I asked if you are open minded - because if you are not, and you are going to disagree only because it is not something that you read in a textbook, then there really is no point in me trying to explain the idea. If you have details, that exclude any postulate of mine, I'll not only consider it, but likely have to "change my mind" on that part. I would expect the same from you, if we are to discuss this further.
Did you read some of the background (linked in the first page), and the first several pages? Specifically, where I have made good predictions? That is where the heart of this is at; the theory development is an attempt to explain the data that has actually been produced.
It's up to you, midwestern. You can disagree with my premise, with nothing more than a "hunch", and we'll leave it at that. Or, we can talk further. It is important to note, that I am not disagreeing with plate tectonic theory, or trying to disprove it. I am trying to add on to what already is known; I am trying to put real EQ prediction "on the table".
am_Unition
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| We know that forces at work deep within the Earth's interior drive plate motion, but we may never fully understand the details. At present, none of the proposed mechanisms can explain all the facets of plate movement; because these forces are buried so deeply, no mechanism can be tested directly and proven beyond reasonable doubt. The fact that the tectonic plates have moved in the past and are still moving today is beyond dispute, but the details of why and how they move will continue to challenge scientists far into the future. |
Although nothing there supports my postulate, everything there refutes your "black & white" statement asserting the cause of EQ's.
Most of what I put into that longer post was for "other people". For every opinion in a thread response, there are typically several (at least) more who think the same/have the same question, etc.
Only the first statement was especially for you: you did not "explain" anything, with your "simple angle of tectonic activity". You literally just were saying "movement is the cause of movement" (by the basic definitions of the words that you used). You must know that ANY theory that attempts to predict EQ's is going to be "fringe" Science, because it doesn't exist in the standard paradigm. The same goes for the cause of plate movement in general, right now.
That is why I asked if you are open minded - because if you are not, and you are going to disagree only because it is not something that you read in a textbook, then there really is no point in me trying to explain the idea. If you have details, that exclude any postulate of mine, I'll not only consider it, but likely have to "change my mind" on that part. I would expect the same from you, if we are to discuss this further.
Did you read some of the background (linked in the first page), and the first several pages? Specifically, where I have made good predictions? That is where the heart of this is at; the theory development is an attempt to explain the data that has actually been produced.
It's up to you, midwestern. You can disagree with my premise, with nothing more than a "hunch", and we'll leave it at that. Or, we can talk further. It is important to note, that I am not disagreeing with plate tectonic theory, or trying to disprove it. I am trying to add on to what already is known; I am trying to put real EQ prediction "on the table".
am_Unition
Perhaps some chaos is a factor as well, but after 4.6 billion years, there must be some patterned contribution from the barycenter oscillations induced by the planets.
If I'm not mistaken, in this paper, they show some rough patterns - 8 general shapes that repeat. Also, many other time alignments.
Prolonged Minima and the 179 Yr Cycle of the Solar Inertial Motion
Rhodes Fairbridge, James Shirley
regards,
T.Roc
I understand Troc your additions are well heeded. The party needing additional schooling admitted he needed more classwork. I'm not suggesting more schooling myself. Sorry for the misinterpretation.
Quote from TRoc
Most of you already know this, but I am a firm believer in the inter-connectedness of all things. It is hard to give an answer, in the "cause and effect" terms that we are used to seeing things in, but these things are "connected" in a non-linear, indirect fashion.
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.html
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.htmlUntil 1992, when California’s magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake set off small jolts as far away as Yellowstone National Park, scientists did not believe large earthquakes sparked smaller tremors at distant locations. Now, a definitive study shows large earthquakes routinely trigger smaller jolts worldwide, including on the opposite side of the planet and in areas not prone to quakes.
In case you haven't seen this.
Hmmm. That China temblor was a big one, and maybe not over.
QUOTE
Most of you already know this, but I am a firm believer in the inter-connectedness of all things. It is hard to give an answer, in the "cause and effect" terms that we are used to seeing things in, but these things are "connected" in a non-linear, indirect fashion.
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.html
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
Most of you already know this, but I am a firm believer in the inter-connectedness of all things. It is hard to give an answer, in the "cause and effect" terms that we are used to seeing things in, but these things are "connected" in a non-linear, indirect fashion. |
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.htmlUntil 1992, when California’s magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake set off small jolts as far away as Yellowstone National Park, scientists did not believe large earthquakes sparked smaller tremors at distant locations. Now, a definitive study shows large earthquakes routinely trigger smaller jolts worldwide, including on the opposite side of the planet and in areas not prone to quakes.
In case you haven't seen this.
Hmmm. That China temblor was a big one, and maybe not over.
It was very big and because the people just build schools without inspection of materials, hundreds of schools fell in on the little ones.
The possibility of cross world after shock has made me look at my own surroundings more closely.
The rebar in the schools was so soft it flexed by hand bending, and the concrete had so much sand in it, that one man just rubbed it in his hands and it crumbled like power.
Many people lost their children just because the materials and building was not inspected. The upper class schools that were right next door to the lower class schools had no signs of failure.
The schools next door were built with the right materials, and the buildings held up without signs of problems.
They spent money on the upper class buildings and it kept their children safe.
Here is one link , but not for the week at hart.
cut cost at childrens life
The possibility of cross world after shock has made me look at my own surroundings more closely.
The rebar in the schools was so soft it flexed by hand bending, and the concrete had so much sand in it, that one man just rubbed it in his hands and it crumbled like power.
Many people lost their children just because the materials and building was not inspected. The upper class schools that were right next door to the lower class schools had no signs of failure.
The schools next door were built with the right materials, and the buildings held up without signs of problems.
They spent money on the upper class buildings and it kept their children safe.
Here is one link , but not for the week at hart.
cut cost at childrens life
It's about time I threw this out there.
TRoc, I would be very surprised if you've never visited or heard of this website before.
http://www.jupitersdance.com/
Forewarning - contains controversial/unscientific content... try to ignore the astrology and 2012 stuff towards the bottom.
TRoc, I would be very surprised if you've never visited or heard of this website before.
http://www.jupitersdance.com/
Forewarning - contains controversial/unscientific content... try to ignore the astrology and 2012 stuff towards the bottom.
Hi everyone
I am sad to say the aftermath is not over.
Shock waves follow the earthquake.
Shock waves of anger
I am sad to say the aftermath is not over.
Shock waves follow the earthquake.
Shock waves of anger
TRoc
Hope you will pardon me for posting the earthquake victims updates.
I just feel sad that it happened to children just from greed,fraud,and faulty materials. I also realize it was an earthquake, and that is the physical reason.
I will start a topic next time when I feel I want to bring attention to this.
Hope you will pardon me for posting the earthquake victims updates.
I just feel sad that it happened to children just from greed,fraud,and faulty materials. I also realize it was an earthquake, and that is the physical reason.
I will start a topic next time when I feel I want to bring attention to this.
Hi all,
rethinker -
Don't worry at all about posting victim updates here; that is something that I try to do as well. The purpose of predicting EQ's is ultimately about them, and the hopes for fewer deaths in the future.
Montec -
Interesting idea about the momentum transfer to the moon. Alfred Wegener suggested as much, in the "original" plate tectonic theory, circa 1916. The problem (one) is that the plates do not all move in the same directions, as would happen if just one, consistently located body of mass were responsible.
This is why I believe that there is a "frame dragging" effect that acts as a long term guiding force, to help move the plates along. This is where "short term" (planetary scale of 1000's years) gravitational force acts similar to the cause of the Sun's gyrating orbit around the barycenter. The longer term effect would be the position of our System within our Galaxy. I don't think that these are enough to act alone, but have an additional effect to the standard causes proposed by tectonic theory, over very long periods of time.
soundhertz -
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.html
That is good to see; a "definitive study" concludes that "dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon".
That is good to see; a "definitive study" concludes that "dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon".
The new study is the first to systematically analyze all the world’s big quakes during 1992-2006 ..
Well, not exactly.. .. first to publish, though!
The problem with this data, and the "old" plate tectonic theory, is that there is not a traceable, mechanical path for these "dynamic events". If the "separate" plates are not so separate, fine; we can adjust the old theory. However, while following a seismic wave from point A (large quake), to point B (C, D, etc), one would expect two things: we would not get events "out of geographical order", and we would not expect to get multiple events at point B (or any other). Both of these situations occur though; hence the "mystery". Certainly, because the different plates are not "connected", poses a serious problem, in adjusting the current paradigm with this new "definitive conclusion".
I scooped PhysOrg on this news, BTW:
TRoc Posted: Apr 15 2008, 03:18 AM
The problem with this data, and the "old" plate tectonic theory, is that there is not a traceable, mechanical path for these "dynamic events". If the "separate" plates are not so separate, fine; we can adjust the old theory. However, while following a seismic wave from point A (large quake), to point B (C, D, etc), one would expect two things: we would not get events "out of geographical order", and we would not expect to get multiple events at point B (or any other). Both of these situations occur though; hence the "mystery". Certainly, because the different plates are not "connected", poses a serious problem, in adjusting the current paradigm with this new "definitive conclusion".
I scooped PhysOrg on this news, BTW:
TRoc Posted: Apr 15 2008, 03:18 AM
http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PRESS/yell_press.htm
November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming.
By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area.
There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California.
Scientists once believed that an earthquake at one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. But that belief was shattered in 1992 when the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in California's Mojave Desert triggered a swarm of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone, as well as other jolts near Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Yucca Mountain, Nev.
The apparent triggering of the Yellowstone tremors by the Alaska quake "confirms what we are beginning to see worldwide - that earthquakes can be triggered by other earthquakes at great distances, more so than we had thought before," said Robert. B. Smith, a University of Utah professor of geology and geophysics and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
So, with the plates having their separation, and "convection cells" being unmapped, uncounted, and even having unknown structure, we have a mystery to solve. I suggest using the same essential techniques that brought us knowledge of the inner layers of the Earth, and the outer layers of our atmosphere/ionosphere: wave resonance. By sending (or following independent sources) waves out, and measuring their reflection & return. In this case, mapping EQ's as a whole, over periods of time, and looking for patterns. I have referred to this pattern as being similar to "spherical harmonics".
One thing that needs to change, is the mindset that EQ's are caused by the conditions in faults, as has been part of the standard paradigm for the past 50-80 years. This sounds kind of crazy, at first glance. What I mean is, that I believe it is instructive to view the existence of the faults as having an interdependent relationship with the locations of EQ's. You have to look "outward" from our planet, for this to start to make sense. If there is a relation to the locations and movements of the plates, then the faults (transform, divergent, and convergent) also will follow this relation. That is why I am interested in the effects of the planets in our system (and further) on the Sun, its cycles, and active regions (holes, spots, flares, etc).
That changes the model to "nonlinear", with a feedback loop. The locations of the various, periodic movements of the masses having both an effect on the long term movements of the tectonic plates, and the position of the Sun. The position of the Sun, in turn, effects the Solar cycles, which in turn, become a pattern of the locations of the greater percentage of CH's, which act to trigger EQ's. In this thinking, EQ's are actually "Vibratory Stress Relief" (VSR), for the tremendous forces accumulating by gravitational pull, by many bodies. VSR is also dominated by the nature of Resonance: it works from the center, out, and is most effective when the correct frequency ("eigen") is applied. When "other than the resonant frequency" (but near to) is applied, cracks & fissures are left on the outlying areas. This all appears to be "chaotic", until you bring all of the pertinent information in. We do not get "the perfect, one time application" of a Schumann Resonance (SR), we get periodically changing applications of "+/-" the SR. This shows up both in the small variation in the SR itself, as well as the "continuous free oscillations" predicted by Benioff (1959), and finally "discovered" in 1997. I linked to this paper a while back (LINK): CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling.
I'll re quote a few lines:
These are not seismically related. I believe that they are the result of "cyclic beat frequencies", of the patterned arrival of energy from variations in the solar wind (SW). This, of course, shows up in the atmospheric changes, that that paper concludes is the "cause". The resonant interaction of a series of quasi-coherent frequencies, will "settle down" to a fundamental mode via beat frequencies, such as the CMB, or Black Body Curve, or even Musical chords, as I have shown elsewhere.
These are not seismically related. I believe that they are the result of "cyclic beat frequencies", of the patterned arrival of energy from variations in the solar wind (SW). This, of course, shows up in the atmospheric changes, that that paper concludes is the "cause". The resonant interaction of a series of quasi-coherent frequencies, will "settle down" to a fundamental mode via beat frequencies, such as the CMB, or Black Body Curve, or even Musical chords, as I have shown elsewhere.
The interior structure of planets could be learned by determining the eigenfrequencies in the continuous free oscillations.
This is what I mean by mapping the convection cells, by following the pattern of EQ's. If the harmonics (eigenfrequencies) of the continuous (fundamental) wave are where the secondary, "dynamic" EQ's result, then we have good reason to believe that the Wadati-Benioff zones, for example, are interconnected via "convection cells" that extend in 3 dimensions throughout the Earth. These also act as "waveguides" for the energy. One of these appears to be at the ~90 deg (travel dist) separation of the Juan de Fuca, and southern part of the Nazca Plates, as I have pointed out on many occasions. I think that my idea of extending the Schumann Resonances into the body of the Earth has not been done before, but of course, I can not be certain of this.
am_Unition -
No, actually, I hadn't seen that site. There is some interesting stuff there. I will comment more in my next post.
A link that I have been meaning to post for some time, is this: http://megagalerias.terra.cl/galerias/inde...d_galeria=30734.
These are absolutely fantastic photos of the Chaitén eruption, I believe on the second night (around May 2). These will become "classic", I am sure. They show the incredible electrical connection going on during this event. Number 7, and 11 are exceptionally great! If I ever get around to writing a book on this subject, one of these will likely be on the cover.
Also, check out The Volcanism Blog, for the latest updates, and more photos.
regards,
T.Roc
rethinker -
Don't worry at all about posting victim updates here; that is something that I try to do as well. The purpose of predicting EQ's is ultimately about them, and the hopes for fewer deaths in the future.
Montec -
Interesting idea about the momentum transfer to the moon. Alfred Wegener suggested as much, in the "original" plate tectonic theory, circa 1916. The problem (one) is that the plates do not all move in the same directions, as would happen if just one, consistently located body of mass were responsible.
This is why I believe that there is a "frame dragging" effect that acts as a long term guiding force, to help move the plates along. This is where "short term" (planetary scale of 1000's years) gravitational force acts similar to the cause of the Sun's gyrating orbit around the barycenter. The longer term effect would be the position of our System within our Galaxy. I don't think that these are enough to act alone, but have an additional effect to the standard causes proposed by tectonic theory, over very long periods of time.
soundhertz -
QUOTE
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.html
That is good to see; a "definitive study" concludes that "dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon".
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
Quote from http://www.physorg.com/news130942304.html |
That is good to see; a "definitive study" concludes that "dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon".
The new study is the first to systematically analyze all the world’s big quakes during 1992-2006 ..
Well, not exactly..
.. first to publish, though!QUOTE
When an earthquake begins, energy is released in the form of shock waves that move through the ground.
..
How do the surface waves trigger small earthquakes at distant locations?
“The physical mechanism is not known,” says Pankow.
..
How do the surface waves trigger small earthquakes at distant locations?
“The physical mechanism is not known,” says Pankow.
The problem with this data, and the "old" plate tectonic theory, is that there is not a traceable, mechanical path for these "dynamic events". If the "separate" plates are not so separate, fine; we can adjust the old theory. However, while following a seismic wave from point A (large quake), to point B (C, D, etc), one would expect two things: we would not get events "out of geographical order", and we would not expect to get multiple events at point B (or any other). Both of these situations occur though; hence the "mystery". Certainly, because the different plates are not "connected", poses a serious problem, in adjusting the current paradigm with this new "definitive conclusion".
I scooped PhysOrg on this news, BTW:
TRoc Posted: Apr 15 2008, 03:18 AM
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| When an earthquake begins, energy is released in the form of shock waves that move through the ground. .. How do the surface waves trigger small earthquakes at distant locations? “The physical mechanism is not known,” says Pankow. |
The problem with this data, and the "old" plate tectonic theory, is that there is not a traceable, mechanical path for these "dynamic events". If the "separate" plates are not so separate, fine; we can adjust the old theory. However, while following a seismic wave from point A (large quake), to point B (C, D, etc), one would expect two things: we would not get events "out of geographical order", and we would not expect to get multiple events at point B (or any other). Both of these situations occur though; hence the "mystery". Certainly, because the different plates are not "connected", poses a serious problem, in adjusting the current paradigm with this new "definitive conclusion".
I scooped PhysOrg on this news, BTW:
TRoc Posted: Apr 15 2008, 03:18 AM
http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PRESS/yell_press.htm
QUOTE
November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming.
By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area.
There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area. There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California. |
Scientists once believed that an earthquake at one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. But that belief was shattered in 1992 when the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in California's Mojave Desert triggered a swarm of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone, as well as other jolts near Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Yucca Mountain, Nev.
The apparent triggering of the Yellowstone tremors by the Alaska quake "confirms what we are beginning to see worldwide - that earthquakes can be triggered by other earthquakes at great distances, more so than we had thought before," said Robert. B. Smith, a University of Utah professor of geology and geophysics and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
So, with the plates having their separation, and "convection cells" being unmapped, uncounted, and even having unknown structure, we have a mystery to solve. I suggest using the same essential techniques that brought us knowledge of the inner layers of the Earth, and the outer layers of our atmosphere/ionosphere: wave resonance. By sending (or following independent sources) waves out, and measuring their reflection & return. In this case, mapping EQ's as a whole, over periods of time, and looking for patterns. I have referred to this pattern as being similar to "spherical harmonics".
One thing that needs to change, is the mindset that EQ's are caused by the conditions in faults, as has been part of the standard paradigm for the past 50-80 years. This sounds kind of crazy, at first glance. What I mean is, that I believe it is instructive to view the existence of the faults as having an interdependent relationship with the locations of EQ's. You have to look "outward" from our planet, for this to start to make sense. If there is a relation to the locations and movements of the plates, then the faults (transform, divergent, and convergent) also will follow this relation. That is why I am interested in the effects of the planets in our system (and further) on the Sun, its cycles, and active regions (holes, spots, flares, etc).
That changes the model to "nonlinear", with a feedback loop. The locations of the various, periodic movements of the masses having both an effect on the long term movements of the tectonic plates, and the position of the Sun. The position of the Sun, in turn, effects the Solar cycles, which in turn, become a pattern of the locations of the greater percentage of CH's, which act to trigger EQ's. In this thinking, EQ's are actually "Vibratory Stress Relief" (VSR), for the tremendous forces accumulating by gravitational pull, by many bodies. VSR is also dominated by the nature of Resonance: it works from the center, out, and is most effective when the correct frequency ("eigen") is applied. When "other than the resonant frequency" (but near to) is applied, cracks & fissures are left on the outlying areas. This all appears to be "chaotic", until you bring all of the pertinent information in. We do not get "the perfect, one time application" of a Schumann Resonance (SR), we get periodically changing applications of "+/-" the SR. This shows up both in the small variation in the SR itself, as well as the "continuous free oscillations" predicted by Benioff (1959), and finally "discovered" in 1997. I linked to this paper a while back (LINK): CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling.
I'll re quote a few lines:
QUOTE
Spheroidal fundamental modes between 2 and 7 millihertz are excited continuously with acceleration amplitudes of about 0.3–0.5 nanogals.
These are not seismically related. I believe that they are the result of "cyclic beat frequencies", of the patterned arrival of energy from variations in the solar wind (SW). This, of course, shows up in the atmospheric changes, that that paper concludes is the "cause". The resonant interaction of a series of quasi-coherent frequencies, will "settle down" to a fundamental mode via beat frequencies, such as the CMB, or Black Body Curve, or even Musical chords, as I have shown elsewhere.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Spheroidal fundamental modes between 2 and 7 millihertz are excited continuously with acceleration amplitudes of about 0.3–0.5 nanogals. |
These are not seismically related. I believe that they are the result of "cyclic beat frequencies", of the patterned arrival of energy from variations in the solar wind (SW). This, of course, shows up in the atmospheric changes, that that paper concludes is the "cause". The resonant interaction of a series of quasi-coherent frequencies, will "settle down" to a fundamental mode via beat frequencies, such as the CMB, or Black Body Curve, or even Musical chords, as I have shown elsewhere.
The interior structure of planets could be learned by determining the eigenfrequencies in the continuous free oscillations.
This is what I mean by mapping the convection cells, by following the pattern of EQ's. If the harmonics (eigenfrequencies) of the continuous (fundamental) wave are where the secondary, "dynamic" EQ's result, then we have good reason to believe that the Wadati-Benioff zones, for example, are interconnected via "convection cells" that extend in 3 dimensions throughout the Earth. These also act as "waveguides" for the energy. One of these appears to be at the ~90 deg (travel dist) separation of the Juan de Fuca, and southern part of the Nazca Plates, as I have pointed out on many occasions. I think that my idea of extending the Schumann Resonances into the body of the Earth has not been done before, but of course, I can not be certain of this.
am_Unition -
No, actually, I hadn't seen that site. There is some interesting stuff there. I will comment more in my next post.
A link that I have been meaning to post for some time, is this: http://megagalerias.terra.cl/galerias/inde...d_galeria=30734.
These are absolutely fantastic photos of the Chaitén eruption, I believe on the second night (around May 2). These will become "classic", I am sure. They show the incredible electrical connection going on during this event. Number 7, and 11 are exceptionally great! If I ever get around to writing a book on this subject, one of these will likely be on the cover.
Also, check out The Volcanism Blog, for the latest updates, and more photos.
regards,
T.Roc
Absolutely stunning images, TRoc. I particularly enjoy the photos revealing lightning discharging down through the erupting lava. Do you know if the lightning was associated with a thunderstorm cell, or was it purely from ionospheric disturbance caused by the volcano??
Physorg published an article that went largely ignored and was poorly rated. The real treasure is in the free .pdf file at the bottom of the article - here.
We all know that magnetosphere and ionosphere activity is dominated (in short time frames) by solar output (both particle and radiation), IMF orientation, solar wind speed, etc. We're working on smoothing out the details, but the mechanics of it are largely known.
Now I could link to one of a slew of papers published about abnormalities in the ionosphere serving as earthquake precursors. If you're really interested or still in denial, google "ionosphere+disturbed+before+earthquake", and marvel at the thousands of relevant links.
Logically, if you have a perturbed ionosphere local to the soon-to-be earthquake epicenter, the interactions between highly dynamic solar input and the existing anomaly in the ionosphere very likely produces a tipping point that can and will be characterized by equations and parameters.
Again, why hasn't this avenue of earthquake prediction been pursued by a heavily funded government program? That's the real mystery here.
Keep gathering your data TRoc
Physorg published an article that went largely ignored and was poorly rated. The real treasure is in the free .pdf file at the bottom of the article - here.
QUOTE
from pg. 3, 3rd paragraph
For instance, asymmetries in the ring current particle pressure tensor produce field aligned currents flowing into and out from the ionosphere. These currents control the ionospheric electric potential distributions and couple plasma convection in both the ionosphere and magnetospheric plasmas (Harel et al., +32+; Wolf, +32-). Another crucial element in determining the convection pattern is the ionosphere conductivity... which is strongly moderated by precipitation of magnetospheric electrons and ions. In addition to electric coupling, the ionosphere also serves as a source... and a sink to the magnetospheric plasmas.
For instance, asymmetries in the ring current particle pressure tensor produce field aligned currents flowing into and out from the ionosphere. These currents control the ionospheric electric potential distributions and couple plasma convection in both the ionosphere and magnetospheric plasmas (Harel et al., +32+; Wolf, +32-). Another crucial element in determining the convection pattern is the ionosphere conductivity... which is strongly moderated by precipitation of magnetospheric electrons and ions. In addition to electric coupling, the ionosphere also serves as a source... and a sink to the magnetospheric plasmas.
We all know that magnetosphere and ionosphere activity is dominated (in short time frames) by solar output (both particle and radiation), IMF orientation, solar wind speed, etc. We're working on smoothing out the details, but the mechanics of it are largely known.
Now I could link to one of a slew of papers published about abnormalities in the ionosphere serving as earthquake precursors. If you're really interested or still in denial, google "ionosphere+disturbed+before+earthquake", and marvel at the thousands of relevant links.
Logically, if you have a perturbed ionosphere local to the soon-to-be earthquake epicenter, the interactions between highly dynamic solar input and the existing anomaly in the ionosphere very likely produces a tipping point that can and will be characterized by equations and parameters.
Again, why hasn't this avenue of earthquake prediction been pursued by a heavily funded government program? That's the real mystery here.
Keep gathering your data TRoc
QUOTE (TRoc+Jun 2 2008, 09:06 PM)
Hi all,
rethinker -
Don't worry at all about posting victim updates here; that is something that I try to do as well. The purpose of predicting EQ's is ultimately about them, and the hopes for fewer deaths in the future.
Montec -
Interesting idea about the momentum transfer to the moon. Alfred Wegener suggested as much, in the "original" plate tectonic theory, circa 1916. The problem (one) is that the plates do not all move in the same directions, as would happen if just one, consistently located body of mass were responsible.
This is why I believe that there is a "frame dragging" effect that acts as a long term guiding force, to help move the plates along. This is where "short term" (planetary scale of 1000's years) gravitational force acts similar to the cause of the Sun's gyrating orbit around the barycenter. The longer term effect would be the position of our System within our Galaxy. I don't think that these are enough to act alone, but have an additional effect to the standard causes proposed by tectonic theory, over very long periods of time.
soundhertz -
That is good to see; a "definitive study" concludes that "dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon".
Well, not exactly.. .. first to publish, though!
The problem with this data, and the "old" plate tectonic theory, is that there is not a traceable, mechanical path for these "dynamic events". If the "separate" plates are not so separate, fine; we can adjust the old theory. However, while following a seismic wave from point A (large quake), to point B (C, D, etc), one would expect two things: we would not get events "out of geographical order", and we would not expect to get multiple events at point B (or any other). Both of these situations occur though; hence the "mystery". Certainly, because the different plates are not "connected", poses a serious problem, in adjusting the current paradigm with this new "definitive conclusion".
I scooped PhysOrg on this news, BTW:
TRoc Posted: Apr 15 2008, 03:18 AM
[/QUOTE]
So, with the plates having their separation, and "convection cells" being unmapped, uncounted, and even having unknown structure, we have a mystery to solve. I suggest using the same essential techniques that brought us knowledge of the inner layers of the Earth, and the outer layers of our atmosphere/ionosphere: wave resonance. By sending (or following independent sources) waves out, and measuring their reflection & return. In this case, mapping EQ's as a whole, over periods of time, and looking for patterns. I have referred to this pattern as being similar to "spherical harmonics".
One thing that needs to change, is the mindset that EQ's are caused by the conditions in faults, as has been part of the standard paradigm for the past 50-80 years. This sounds kind of crazy, at first glance. What I mean is, that I believe it is instructive to view the existence of the faults as having an interdependent relationship with the locations of EQ's. You have to look "outward" from our planet, for this to start to make sense. If there is a relation to the locations and movements of the plates, then the faults (transform, divergent, and convergent) also will follow this relation. That is why I am interested in the effects of the planets in our system (and further) on the Sun, its cycles, and active regions (holes, spots, flares, etc).
That changes the model to "nonlinear", with a feedback loop. The locations of the various, periodic movements of the masses having both an effect on the long term movements of the tectonic plates, and the position of the Sun. The position of the Sun, in turn, effects the Solar cycles, which in turn, become a pattern of the locations of the greater percentage of CH's, which act to trigger EQ's. In this thinking, EQ's are actually "Vibratory Stress Relief" (VSR), for the tremendous forces accumulating by gravitational pull, by many bodies. VSR is also dominated by the nature of Resonance: it works from the center, out, and is most effective when the correct frequency ("eigen") is applied. When "other than the resonant frequency" (but near to) is applied, cracks & fissures are left on the outlying areas. This all appears to be "chaotic", until you bring all of the pertinent information in. We do not get "the perfect, one time application" of a Schumann Resonance (SR), we get periodically changing applications of "+/-" the SR. This shows up both in the small variation in the SR itself, as well as the "continuous free oscillations" predicted by Benioff (1959), and finally "discovered" in 1997. I linked to this paper a while back (LINK): CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling.
I'll re quote a few lines:
These are not seismically related. I believe that they are the result of "cyclic beat frequencies", of the patterned arrival of energy from variations in the solar wind (SW). This, of course, shows up in the atmospheric changes, that that paper concludes is the "cause". The resonant interaction of a series of quasi-coherent frequencies, will "settle down" to a fundamental mode via beat frequencies, such as the CMB, or Black Body Curve, or even Musical chords, as I have shown elsewhere.
This is what I mean by mapping the convection cells, by following the pattern of EQ's. If the harmonics (eigenfrequencies) of the continuous (fundamental) wave are where the secondary, "dynamic" EQ's result, then we have good reason to believe that the Wadati-Benioff zones, for example, are interconnected via "convection cells" that extend in 3 dimensions throughout the Earth. These also act as "waveguides" for the energy. One of these appears to be at the ~90 deg (travel dist) separation of the Juan de Fuca, and southern part of the Nazca Plates, as I have pointed out on many occasions. I think that my idea of extending the Schumann Resonances into the body of the Earth has not been done before, but of course, I can not be certain of this.
am_Unition -
No, actually, I hadn't seen that site. There is some interesting stuff there. I will comment more in my next post.
A link that I have been meaning to post for some time, is this: http://megagalerias.terra.cl/galerias/inde...d_galeria=30734.
These are absolutely fantastic photos of the Chaitén eruption, I believe on the second night (around May 2). These will become "classic", I am sure. They show the incredible electrical connection going on during this event. Number 7, and 11 are exceptionally great! If I ever get around to writing a book on this subject, one of these will likely be on the cover.
Also, check out The Volcanism Blog, for the latest updates, and more photos.
regards,
T.Roc
Yes, great post and links. I think you should write that book!
g.
rethinker -
Don't worry at all about posting victim updates here; that is something that I try to do as well. The purpose of predicting EQ's is ultimately about them, and the hopes for fewer deaths in the future.
Montec -
Interesting idea about the momentum transfer to the moon. Alfred Wegener suggested as much, in the "original" plate tectonic theory, circa 1916. The problem (one) is that the plates do not all move in the same directions, as would happen if just one, consistently located body of mass were responsible.
This is why I believe that there is a "frame dragging" effect that acts as a long term guiding force, to help move the plates along. This is where "short term" (planetary scale of 1000's years) gravitational force acts similar to the cause of the Sun's gyrating orbit around the barycenter. The longer term effect would be the position of our System within our Galaxy. I don't think that these are enough to act alone, but have an additional effect to the standard causes proposed by tectonic theory, over very long periods of time.
soundhertz -
That is good to see; a "definitive study" concludes that "dynamic triggering is a ubiquitous phenomenon".
Well, not exactly..
.. first to publish, though!The problem with this data, and the "old" plate tectonic theory, is that there is not a traceable, mechanical path for these "dynamic events". If the "separate" plates are not so separate, fine; we can adjust the old theory. However, while following a seismic wave from point A (large quake), to point B (C, D, etc), one would expect two things: we would not get events "out of geographical order", and we would not expect to get multiple events at point B (or any other). Both of these situations occur though; hence the "mystery". Certainly, because the different plates are not "connected", poses a serious problem, in adjusting the current paradigm with this new "definitive conclusion".
I scooped PhysOrg on this news, BTW:
TRoc Posted: Apr 15 2008, 03:18 AM
[/QUOTE]
So, with the plates having their separation, and "convection cells" being unmapped, uncounted, and even having unknown structure, we have a mystery to solve. I suggest using the same essential techniques that brought us knowledge of the inner layers of the Earth, and the outer layers of our atmosphere/ionosphere: wave resonance. By sending (or following independent sources) waves out, and measuring their reflection & return. In this case, mapping EQ's as a whole, over periods of time, and looking for patterns. I have referred to this pattern as being similar to "spherical harmonics".
One thing that needs to change, is the mindset that EQ's are caused by the conditions in faults, as has been part of the standard paradigm for the past 50-80 years. This sounds kind of crazy, at first glance. What I mean is, that I believe it is instructive to view the existence of the faults as having an interdependent relationship with the locations of EQ's. You have to look "outward" from our planet, for this to start to make sense. If there is a relation to the locations and movements of the plates, then the faults (transform, divergent, and convergent) also will follow this relation. That is why I am interested in the effects of the planets in our system (and further) on the Sun, its cycles, and active regions (holes, spots, flares, etc).
That changes the model to "nonlinear", with a feedback loop. The locations of the various, periodic movements of the masses having both an effect on the long term movements of the tectonic plates, and the position of the Sun. The position of the Sun, in turn, effects the Solar cycles, which in turn, become a pattern of the locations of the greater percentage of CH's, which act to trigger EQ's. In this thinking, EQ's are actually "Vibratory Stress Relief" (VSR), for the tremendous forces accumulating by gravitational pull, by many bodies. VSR is also dominated by the nature of Resonance: it works from the center, out, and is most effective when the correct frequency ("eigen") is applied. When "other than the resonant frequency" (but near to) is applied, cracks & fissures are left on the outlying areas. This all appears to be "chaotic", until you bring all of the pertinent information in. We do not get "the perfect, one time application" of a Schumann Resonance (SR), we get periodically changing applications of "+/-" the SR. This shows up both in the small variation in the SR itself, as well as the "continuous free oscillations" predicted by Benioff (1959), and finally "discovered" in 1997. I linked to this paper a while back (LINK): CONTINUOUS FREE OSCILLATIONS: Atmosphere-Solid Earth Coupling.
I'll re quote a few lines:
These are not seismically related. I believe that they are the result of "cyclic beat frequencies", of the patterned arrival of energy from variations in the solar wind (SW). This, of course, shows up in the atmospheric changes, that that paper concludes is the "cause". The resonant interaction of a series of quasi-coherent frequencies, will "settle down" to a fundamental mode via beat frequencies, such as the CMB, or Black Body Curve, or even Musical chords, as I have shown elsewhere.
This is what I mean by mapping the convection cells, by following the pattern of EQ's. If the harmonics (eigenfrequencies) of the continuous (fundamental) wave are where the secondary, "dynamic" EQ's result, then we have good reason to believe that the Wadati-Benioff zones, for example, are interconnected via "convection cells" that extend in 3 dimensions throughout the Earth. These also act as "waveguides" for the energy. One of these appears to be at the ~90 deg (travel dist) separation of the Juan de Fuca, and southern part of the Nazca Plates, as I have pointed out on many occasions. I think that my idea of extending the Schumann Resonances into the body of the Earth has not been done before, but of course, I can not be certain of this.
am_Unition -
No, actually, I hadn't seen that site. There is some interesting stuff there. I will comment more in my next post.
A link that I have been meaning to post for some time, is this: http://megagalerias.terra.cl/galerias/inde...d_galeria=30734.
These are absolutely fantastic photos of the Chaitén eruption, I believe on the second night (around May 2). These will become "classic", I am sure. They show the incredible electrical connection going on during this event. Number 7, and 11 are exceptionally great! If I ever get around to writing a book on this subject, one of these will likely be on the cover.
Also, check out The Volcanism Blog, for the latest updates, and more photos.
regards,
T.Roc
Yes, great post and links. I think you should write that book!
g.
Hi all,
amU -
You have to have the right conditions for this, of course, but, there were no other thunderstorms in the area at the time, AFAIK. It's probably not technically ionosphere related, either. When you have the hot gas rising into the cooler air, you get a transfer of charge. The gas cloud then becomes a capacitor, and can discharge this energy as lightning. There is not 100% agreement on the exact explanation, though. The "Seebeck", or "thermoelectric effect" plays a part too, I think. This is normally applied to conducting material, but the temperature gradient also results in the diffusion of charge carriers. This might be going on in the plasma-sphere/ionosphere as well.
BTW, there was no lava. That was likely "ball lightning", or some other wild stuff going on in those photos.
"Speaking of Volcanoes"..
I thought of putting this in "sinister's music thread", but it is too related to this topic. Al Di Meola has a new DVD out, called.. "Speak a Volcano", which I got to see at a friends house recently; well recommended!
How is this related? Well, this is the return to the electric guitar for him. Being a lifelong sufferer of Tinnitus, he found that his loud playing aggravated his condition; so, he switched to acoustic playing. (getting older didn't hurt, either!)
It seems that Tinnitus can have "life changing effects" on people. I remember reading that some people had made a connection to this "ear ringing", and EQ's. I thought, "hey, my ears ring sometimes". So the next time it happened, I made it a point to check the USGS list when I got home, and sure enough, a local quake had happened. Not the kind of thing that you build a theory on, but it certainly pushed me to learn more! There are a few folks on this board, who send me PM's stating they too, have "heard" pre-cursors. I also recall, a veterinarian friend, telling me of a horse, who had acute Tinnitus. In this case, "acute" means that it was audible to the people around the horse! I really did not want to believe this story, but he insisted it was the real deal.
So, you other "doubting Thomas's" (like me) out there, take note:
National Academy of Sciences - "Sound from Silence"
You have to have the right conditions for this, of course, but, there were no other thunderstorms in the area at the time, AFAIK. It's probably not technically ionosphere related, either. When you have the hot gas rising into the cooler air, you get a transfer of charge. The gas cloud then becomes a capacitor, and can discharge this energy as lightning. There is not 100% agreement on the exact explanation, though. The "Seebeck", or "thermoelectric effect" plays a part too, I think. This is normally applied to conducting material, but the temperature gradient also results in the diffusion of charge carriers. This might be going on in the plasma-sphere/ionosphere as well.
BTW, there was no lava. That was likely "ball lightning", or some other wild stuff going on in those photos.
"Speaking of Volcanoes"..
I thought of putting this in "sinister's music thread", but it is too related to this topic. Al Di Meola has a new DVD out, called.. "Speak a Volcano", which I got to see at a friends house recently; well recommended!
How is this related? Well, this is the return to the electric guitar for him. Being a lifelong sufferer of Tinnitus, he found that his loud playing aggravated his condition; so, he switched to acoustic playing. (getting older didn't hurt, either!)
It seems that Tinnitus can have "life changing effects" on people. I remember reading that some people had made a connection to this "ear ringing", and EQ's. I thought, "hey, my ears ring sometimes". So the next time it happened, I made it a point to check the USGS list when I got home, and sure enough, a local quake had happened. Not the kind of thing that you build a theory on, but it certainly pushed me to learn more! There are a few folks on this board, who send me PM's stating they too, have "heard" pre-cursors. I also recall, a veterinarian friend, telling me of a horse, who had acute Tinnitus. In this case, "acute" means that it was audible to the people around the horse! I really did not want to believe this story, but he insisted it was the real deal.
So, you other "doubting Thomas's" (like me) out there, take note:
National Academy of Sciences - "Sound from Silence"
One of the strangest discoveries made about hearing in recent years is the phenomenon of "otoacoustic emissions." In 1977 David Kemp, of the Institute of Otology and Laryngology in London, discovered that the cochlea not only receives sounds but actually produces them as well. Most of us are familiar with the phenomenon of tinnitus, ringing in the ears. It turns out that in many cases tinnitus is not entirely a subjective phenomenon; sometimes when your ears ring, they really ring! Sensitive microphones placed in the ears confirm that something within the cochlea is emitting sounds, acting like a tiny loudspeaker.
..
In 1985 William E. Brownell, now at Baylor College of Medicine, discovered that outer hair cells vibrate when exposed to an alternating electric field. This observation, combined with a previous observation that outer hair cells produce an electric field when stimulated by sound, led scientists to realize that the outer hair cells both generate and are stimulated by their own electric field. This positive feedback system probably causes the otoacoustic emissions and may make the inner hair cells more sensitive and better able to detect fine differences in sound frequency.
The American Tinnitus Association (ATA), and the USGS both have requests for research programs right now ($50 mil each, total). Spread the word up there in the States; maybe somebody can make the connection!
For the enthusiasts, who also want to help: The ATA is auctioning off an autographed, Al Di Meola Ovation 1769ADII guitar, to raise money for Tinnitus research, too. E-Bay link to bid.
>>Prediction: Al will be on the cover of Guitar Player magazine within the next 30 days.
Back to work!
T.Roc
We are parts of the Earth, born OF it, and therefore made of the same 'stuff' including the methods by which it 'operates'.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=qqsyXdj_p_I
g.
amU -
QUOTE
Do you know if the lightning was associated with a thunderstorm cell, or was it purely from ionospheric disturbance caused by the volcano??
You have to have the right conditions for this, of course, but, there were no other thunderstorms in the area at the time, AFAIK. It's probably not technically ionosphere related, either. When you have the hot gas rising into the cooler air, you get a transfer of charge. The gas cloud then becomes a capacitor, and can discharge this energy as lightning. There is not 100% agreement on the exact explanation, though. The "Seebeck", or "thermoelectric effect" plays a part too, I think. This is normally applied to conducting material, but the temperature gradient also results in the diffusion of charge carriers. This might be going on in the plasma-sphere/ionosphere as well.
BTW, there was no lava. That was likely "ball lightning", or some other wild stuff going on in those photos.
"Speaking of Volcanoes"..
I thought of putting this in "sinister's music thread", but it is too related to this topic. Al Di Meola has a new DVD out, called.. "Speak a Volcano", which I got to see at a friends house recently; well recommended!
How is this related? Well, this is the return to the electric guitar for him. Being a lifelong sufferer of Tinnitus, he found that his loud playing aggravated his condition; so, he switched to acoustic playing. (getting older didn't hurt, either!)
It seems that Tinnitus can have "life changing effects" on people. I remember reading that some people had made a connection to this "ear ringing", and EQ's. I thought, "hey, my ears ring sometimes". So the next time it happened, I made it a point to check the USGS list when I got home, and sure enough, a local quake had happened. Not the kind of thing that you build a theory on, but it certainly pushed me to learn more! There are a few folks on this board, who send me PM's stating they too, have "heard" pre-cursors. I also recall, a veterinarian friend, telling me of a horse, who had acute Tinnitus. In this case, "acute" means that it was audible to the people around the horse! I really did not want to believe this story, but he insisted it was the real deal.
So, you other "doubting Thomas's" (like me) out there, take note:
National Academy of Sciences - "Sound from Silence"
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Do you know if the lightning was associated with a thunderstorm cell, or was it purely from ionospheric disturbance caused by the volcano?? |
You have to have the right conditions for this, of course, but, there were no other thunderstorms in the area at the time, AFAIK. It's probably not technically ionosphere related, either. When you have the hot gas rising into the cooler air, you get a transfer of charge. The gas cloud then becomes a capacitor, and can discharge this energy as lightning. There is not 100% agreement on the exact explanation, though. The "Seebeck", or "thermoelectric effect" plays a part too, I think. This is normally applied to conducting material, but the temperature gradient also results in the diffusion of charge carriers. This might be going on in the plasma-sphere/ionosphere as well.
BTW, there was no lava. That was likely "ball lightning", or some other wild stuff going on in those photos.
"Speaking of Volcanoes"..
I thought of putting this in "sinister's music thread", but it is too related to this topic. Al Di Meola has a new DVD out, called.. "Speak a Volcano", which I got to see at a friends house recently; well recommended!
How is this related? Well, this is the return to the electric guitar for him. Being a lifelong sufferer of Tinnitus, he found that his loud playing aggravated his condition; so, he switched to acoustic playing. (getting older didn't hurt, either!)
It seems that Tinnitus can have "life changing effects" on people. I remember reading that some people had made a connection to this "ear ringing", and EQ's. I thought, "hey, my ears ring sometimes". So the next time it happened, I made it a point to check the USGS list when I got home, and sure enough, a local quake had happened. Not the kind of thing that you build a theory on, but it certainly pushed me to learn more! There are a few folks on this board, who send me PM's stating they too, have "heard" pre-cursors. I also recall, a veterinarian friend, telling me of a horse, who had acute Tinnitus. In this case, "acute" means that it was audible to the people around the horse! I really did not want to believe this story, but he insisted it was the real deal.
So, you other "doubting Thomas's" (like me) out there, take note:
National Academy of Sciences - "Sound from Silence"
One of the strangest discoveries made about hearing in recent years is the phenomenon of "otoacoustic emissions." In 1977 David Kemp, of the Institute of Otology and Laryngology in London, discovered that the cochlea not only receives sounds but actually produces them as well. Most of us are familiar with the phenomenon of tinnitus, ringing in the ears. It turns out that in many cases tinnitus is not entirely a subjective phenomenon; sometimes when your ears ring, they really ring! Sensitive microphones placed in the ears confirm that something within the cochlea is emitting sounds, acting like a tiny loudspeaker.
..
In 1985 William E. Brownell, now at Baylor College of Medicine, discovered that outer hair cells vibrate when exposed to an alternating electric field. This observation, combined with a previous observation that outer hair cells produce an electric field when stimulated by sound, led scientists to realize that the outer hair cells both generate and are stimulated by their own electric field. This positive feedback system probably causes the otoacoustic emissions and may make the inner hair cells more sensitive and better able to detect fine differences in sound frequency.
The American Tinnitus Association (ATA), and the USGS both have requests for research programs right now ($50 mil each, total). Spread the word up there in the States; maybe somebody can make the connection!
For the enthusiasts, who also want to help: The ATA is auctioning off an autographed, Al Di Meola Ovation 1769ADII guitar, to raise money for Tinnitus research, too. E-Bay link to bid.
>>Prediction: Al will be on the cover of Guitar Player magazine within the next 30 days.
Back to work!
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Jun 4 2008, 10:58 PM)
National Academy of Sciences - "Sound from Silence"
Hearing as input/output goes with vision as input/output, touch as input/output, and thought as input/output: that is mediumship. It is another field altogether.
Or maybe not
To continue with the same context and the same reading as yours, then I see no major problem with the input of electricity into a volcano: just invert the reasons and causes. The "ear" was not the volcano, though, it was the ionosphere. The sound/electricity was taken into the earth by the "volcano" to be further processed, but if the sound leaves our ears (or the visual input leaves our eyes) to be further processed, then there is a network waiting for it, where it feeds a need. Which leaves us with the good future use of electricity that mindlessly falls to the ground from storms.
If we are to continue this interpretation, then the sounds help us interpret the outside world, and the electricity help the earth establish a ***correlation*** between what is out of the ground and what is into the ground *no matter how deep*.
The "sound" the earth hears would be the sounds of electricity, but why? Because the atmosphere's ionosphere has a ***correlated*** field within the ground. But since there is a hierarchy of verbs in language, and since there is a hierarchy of sounds, then there is a hierarchy of electric inputs from the atmosphere that fill a need within the ground. Which means that not all electric discharges into the ground are -even remotely- the same category. Should they be further subdivided into the same sub-categories as verbs, there will be therefore 7 major categories of lightning that are needed at specific depths, and they are, just as verbs, organized by gravity... of all things. You will write all this huge theory in order to... re-create an atom!
Which leads us into types of electricity (and effects of) that are unknown, and unpredictable by today's theories. There is more to electricity than meets the medium. Uh, the ground...
And then I woke up.
("Tinnitus", afaict, is an underdeveloped type of sensorial input that will organize itself in very, very few people... we are all marsupials!)
QUOTE
One of the strangest discoveries made about hearing in recent years is the phenomenon of "otoacoustic emissions." In 1977 David Kemp, of the Institute of Otology and Laryngology in London, discovered that the cochlea not only receives sounds but actually produces them as well. Most of us are familiar with the phenomenon of tinnitus, ringing in the ears. It turns out that in many cases tinnitus is not entirely a subjective phenomenon; sometimes when your ears ring, they really ring! Sensitive microphones placed in the ears confirm that something within the cochlea is emitting sounds, acting like a tiny loudspeaker.
..
In 1985 William E. Brownell, now at Baylor College of Medicine, discovered that outer hair cells vibrate when exposed to an alternating electric field. This observation, combined with a previous observation that outer hair cells produce an electric field when stimulated by sound, led scientists to realize that the outer hair cells both generate and are stimulated by their own electric field. This positive feedback system probably causes the otoacoustic emissions and may make the inner hair cells more sensitive and better able to detect fine differences in sound frequency.
..
In 1985 William E. Brownell, now at Baylor College of Medicine, discovered that outer hair cells vibrate when exposed to an alternating electric field. This observation, combined with a previous observation that outer hair cells produce an electric field when stimulated by sound, led scientists to realize that the outer hair cells both generate and are stimulated by their own electric field. This positive feedback system probably causes the otoacoustic emissions and may make the inner hair cells more sensitive and better able to detect fine differences in sound frequency.
Hearing as input/output goes with vision as input/output, touch as input/output, and thought as input/output: that is mediumship. It is another field altogether.
Or maybe not
To continue with the same context and the same reading as yours, then I see no major problem with the input of electricity into a volcano: just invert the reasons and causes. The "ear" was not the volcano, though, it was the ionosphere. The sound/electricity was taken into the earth by the "volcano" to be further processed, but if the sound leaves our ears (or the visual input leaves our eyes) to be further processed, then there is a network waiting for it, where it feeds a need. Which leaves us with the good future use of electricity that mindlessly falls to the ground from storms.
If we are to continue this interpretation, then the sounds help us interpret the outside world, and the electricity help the earth establish a ***correlation*** between what is out of the ground and what is into the ground *no matter how deep*.
The "sound" the earth hears would be the sounds of electricity, but why? Because the atmosphere's ionosphere has a ***correlated*** field within the ground. But since there is a hierarchy of verbs in language, and since there is a hierarchy of sounds, then there is a hierarchy of electric inputs from the atmosphere that fill a need within the ground. Which means that not all electric discharges into the ground are -even remotely- the same category. Should they be further subdivided into the same sub-categories as verbs, there will be therefore 7 major categories of lightning that are needed at specific depths, and they are, just as verbs, organized by gravity... of all things. You will write all this huge theory in order to... re-create an atom!
Which leads us into types of electricity (and effects of) that are unknown, and unpredictable by today's theories. There is more to electricity than meets the medium. Uh, the ground...
And then I woke up.
("Tinnitus", afaict, is an underdeveloped type of sensorial input that will organize itself in very, very few people... we are all marsupials!)
QUOTE (am_Unition+Jun 8 2008, 10:07 PM)
The Reno swarm is back
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080608/ap_on_...ada_earthquakes
The earth seems disturbed lately.
This space reserved for quake prediction in the US.(__________________________).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080608/ap_on_...ada_earthquakes
The earth seems disturbed lately.
This space reserved for quake prediction in the US.(__________________________).
Some updated material on how the fault lines are well known.
SHANGHAI — Chinese scientists say that even before a final accounting can be made in last month’s earthquake in Sichuan Province, one thing is painfully evident: The huge death toll stems partly from a failure to heed clear warnings of a devastating earthquake in the area.
failure to heed warnings
SHANGHAI — Chinese scientists say that even before a final accounting can be made in last month’s earthquake in Sichuan Province, one thing is painfully evident: The huge death toll stems partly from a failure to heed clear warnings of a devastating earthquake in the area.
failure to heed warnings
The University of Iowa is alluding to it. They're even constructing a receiver to this effect. You'll like reading this TRoc:
http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/projects/schumann/Index.html
Certainly when one takes into consideration the frequency maelstrom created by the interaction of the large scale wave generation from SR, all the ringing caused by lightning (whose occurrence is geographically asymmetrical; the U.S. has an inordinate amount), the Sun/Planets, and the Earth's core -generated waves continually moving westward, the core itself rotating faster than the outer planet, there must be a lot of phase-coherent, phase-canceling, amplitude strengthening, harmonic energizing and harmonic weakening inter-reactions going on, almost like a slower motion chemical reaction. How to decipher through all of this and distill the correct event is daunting. I'm sure some sort of primer is there though.
btw, didn't Tesla first discover the Schumann Resonance, but as usual didn't receive credit for it? I'm also mildly intrigued by the nearly identical frequencies of earthwaves and brainwaves.
Concerning tinnitus - since i'm an audio engineer, I have my share of tinnitus. Here's a novel way to deal with it, and it's a free trial: http://www.relaxingsoftware.com/tinmaskerhome.htm
TRoc, I recently saw Al with the Rite of Strings . Couple of years ago I was pretty much enchanted whilst mixing Al's stage sound for an acoustic concert in a beautiful hall lit only by candlelight
http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/projects/schumann/Index.html
QUOTE
SR frequencies are low. Practical antennas have to be small fractions of the wavelength, and are inefficient. For example, a ½-wave antenna at 7.5 Hz, one of nominal SR frequencies, would have to be 20,000 km long. Such low frequencies suffer very low attenuation in the atmosphere and penetrate significant distances underground and into the ocean.
At 5 MHz the penetration is about 0.12 m. However, at 5 Hz, the penetration is 112 m. Thus, ELF/ULF electromagnetic waves (5–50 Hz) penetrate deep into earth and ocean, and are used for submarine communications (U.S. 77 Hz, Russia 83 Hz).
I don't know if you ever gave the resonances, but here they are: 7.8, 14, 20, 26, 33, 39 and 45 Hertz.At 5 MHz the penetration is about 0.12 m. However, at 5 Hz, the penetration is 112 m. Thus, ELF/ULF electromagnetic waves (5–50 Hz) penetrate deep into earth and ocean, and are used for submarine communications (U.S. 77 Hz, Russia 83 Hz).
Certainly when one takes into consideration the frequency maelstrom created by the interaction of the large scale wave generation from SR, all the ringing caused by lightning (whose occurrence is geographically asymmetrical; the U.S. has an inordinate amount), the Sun/Planets, and the Earth's core -generated waves continually moving westward, the core itself rotating faster than the outer planet, there must be a lot of phase-coherent, phase-canceling, amplitude strengthening, harmonic energizing and harmonic weakening inter-reactions going on, almost like a slower motion chemical reaction. How to decipher through all of this and distill the correct event is daunting. I'm sure some sort of primer is there though.
btw, didn't Tesla first discover the Schumann Resonance, but as usual didn't receive credit for it? I'm also mildly intrigued by the nearly identical frequencies of earthwaves and brainwaves.
Concerning tinnitus - since i'm an audio engineer, I have my share of tinnitus. Here's a novel way to deal with it, and it's a free trial: http://www.relaxingsoftware.com/tinmaskerhome.htm
TRoc, I recently saw Al with the Rite of Strings
. Couple of years ago I was pretty much enchanted whilst mixing Al's stage sound for an acoustic concert in a beautiful hall lit only by candlelight
QUOTE
I'm also mildly intrigued by the nearly identical frequencies of earthwaves and brainwaves.
We are parts of the Earth, born OF it, and therefore made of the same 'stuff' including the methods by which it 'operates'.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=qqsyXdj_p_I
g.
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