[continued from Rafael Peralta's thread Earthquake Predictions Reviewed, to not divert the topic from his intention]
Hi all,
Just an update..
First, let me edit some statements made above, so that they are of a more "Scientific" slant.
"..I postulate is a reconnection event. They happen on the "night side", and follow a group of mid-magnitude quakes. They are always a bit bigger than the largest EQ in the group."
That would be better stated, "they are commensurate with the total energy of the group".
"That side (far) of our magnetopause has far too many variables to contemplate a specific time and location.."
It is not so much the # of variables, but the lack of data available concerning those variables.
OK.
EQ review (I have left out all activity deemed "aftershocks" of the 7.2 ALEUTIAN/ANDREANOF IS.), concerning the statement/prediction, "..another heavy period of EQ activity this week, too. Nearly all of the largest EQs will be in the S. Hemi." [Dec 19 - 26]
2007/12/20 03:06:58 32.63S 71.50W 34 5.3 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2007/12/20 09:48:30 39.41N 33.15E 10 5.7 CENTRAL TURKEY
2007/12/20 07:55:16 38.86S 178.52E 36 6.6 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
2007/12/20 07:42:53 3.49S 100.65E 30 5.1 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/21 03:10:57 -57.727 -141.394 10.0 5.6 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
2007/12/21 22:05:12 26.837 126.783 110.8 5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
2007/12/21 14:17:14 -20.506 -174.453 83.8 5.0 TONGA
2007/12/22 12:26:19 2.088 96.860 35.0 5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
2007/12/22 07:11:11 -2.390 139.086 35.0 6.1 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
2007/12/22 04:50:38 -17.198 -174.038 35.0 5.1 TONGA
2007/12/22 02:22:07 -23.038 -114.285 10.0 5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION
2007/12/23 13:45:28 -2.755 36.158 10.0 5.3 TANZANIA
2007/12/23 13:10:29 -8.941 123.730 117.9 5.3 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/23 12:56:13 -4.038 39.206 10.0 5.0 KENYA
2007/12/24 21:21:56 -4.240 101.268 56.0 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2007/12/24 20:56:21 -4.464 101.092 35.0 5.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2007/12/24 10:43:48 -26.628 -176.100 44.5 5.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
2007/12/25 23:38:55 38.393 142.280 36.7 5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2007/12/25 16:54:28 0.178 97.056 37.9 5.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
2007/12/25 16:20:52 -19.457 -69.050 112.7 5.8 TARAPACA, CHILE
2007/12/25 14:04:35 38.502 141.969 49.9 6.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2007/12/25 07:52:48 -3.284 142.455 21.8 5.1 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
2007/12/25 01:48:50 -17.649 -178.449 506.7 5.0 FIJI REGION
2007/12/26 23:47:12 39.523 33.115 10.0 5.3 CENTRAL TURKEY 2007/12/26 23:40:53 -22.336 -68.309 96.9 5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2007/12/26 17:12:46 -5.339 131.207 22.3 5.5 BANDA SEA
2007/12/26 05:06:08 -22.049 -176.441 154.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
2007/12/26 04:45:33 40.356 73.031 46.3 5.3 KYRGYZSTAN
2007/12/26 04:14:21 -8.769 157.572 10.0 5.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
2007/12/27 11:44:29 -63.162 149.931 10.0 5.1 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION
The BOLD latitudes are the quakes that fell in the North Hemi.
The BOLD locations (BALLENY ISLANDS REGION, PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE) are evidence supporting the statement, "..the same coronal structure is still exists, albeit further south." You will find that these extremes are lower than the extremes 1 month ago, because (postulated) of the said change in position of the coronal structure, over the period of the last Solar rotation.
So, (rating myself) I think that that was a good weekly forecast.
Just because of the strong correlation (not because I know anything about the weather), I'll include some follow-up to the statement," IE. for the next several days, we should be getting cooler that normal temps in the S. hemisphere; and look for another tropical storm(s) to develop. (similar to the last week of Nov)".
[cruising the news on the internet]
(Reuters) Dec 25 "..All three of Mexico's main oil-exporting ports shut on Sunday due to a storm. Two of the ports, Cayo Arcas and Coatzacoalcos, reopened on Monday while the third, Dos Bocas, reopened early on Tuesday after the two-day closure. "
(BERNAMA.com ) Flooding in Pahang, Johor Malaysia
(Yahoo.com news) Heavy rains this last week lead to landslides in central Java, Indonesia on the 26th.
(Yahoo.com / India)
December 22
"..rain prevented a single ball from being bowled on the final day of the warm-up match against Victoria" (Melbourne, Australia)
December 23
"..runners brave chilly weather to take part in Delhi marathon" (New Delhi, India)
and, from personal observation here in Chile, definitely cooler here too, and some (welcome) rain.
For "related interest": twice before, I have come across an "anomaly" while compiling EQ data like this one. Sometimes, man inadvertently builds "gravitational and/or shock wave detectors" in the form of very poorly, and over-limit, constructed buildings, and we get a "sudden, unexplained" collapse. For what it's worth, I find them to be in proximity to EQ activity.
2 EQ's on Dec 23, a 5.0 in Kenya, and a 5.3 in Tanzania
2 EQ's on Dec 26, a 4.9 and a 5.3 in Central Turkey
between them, lies Alexandria, Egypt.
On Dec 24, we had "the collapse of a 12-storey residential building in Egypt's Mediterranean city of Alexandria".
"On Tuesday (25th), also in Alexandria, at least five people were injured when a building partially collapsed, security sources said."
(Reuters)
regards,
T.Roc
PS. This thread also has roots in several other threads, so that you can follow it from the beginning, if interested. earthquakes warning , IS EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION ALIVE?
Do GRB's affect earthquakes?
That's a good question, PJ. (and well worded) 
If you has said "caused", I would say "no". There is no known, direct link.
However, saying "affect" forces me to say "yes"; though nothing "in the books" as of yet.
Because I believe EQ's to be a non-linear dynamic (with SEC), with several steps involved, "cause" might be biting off too much.
It would not be the GRB itself (defined as the gamma rays & following "light" that we see), but rather, the postulated gravity wave that would go along with the cause of the GRB. (and, of course, they have to be "aimed" at Earth)
I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.
I can link some interesting papers on this, and talk further when I have more time. Just wanted to get an answer out there. Also, to point out that I spend zero time monitoring GRB's, nor do I have any specific energy transfer mechanism worked out. I have no specific way to predict the magnitude of a quake, other than the occasional "educated guess", when pointing out "fault trends", where EQ's in one region are mirrored in another (separate) region. I do believe that this will be able to be performed "on the ground", after a specific location is identified.
The main thrust of this developing theory, is predicting the time and location of EQ's, from 2 to 4 days in advance, based on approximations derived from the extent and "shape" of coronal holes, solar wind speed, and a "lensing" performed by our (fluctuating) magnetopause. There are other factors as well, SW density, Alfven speed, Mach, IMF azimuth, magnetograms, etc. , but that gives the over-all idea.
Not all EQ's will have this as the cause; there are aftershock groups, and re-connection shocks as well. My premise is that the Earth does not jump out of equilibrium on its' own; it is brought out of equilibrium by energy from the Sun (or elsewhere), and then dissipates back to a steady state. Note that the "steady state" includes a steady flow of smaller EQ's.
There are many ideas/theories concerning this data, but none that I'm aware of, are going PAST the "biosphere" as pre-cursor, and looking for the CAUSE of those EM/Seismic pre-cursors. I can be right, without (most of) those ideas being wrong. This is wide open, and full of little understood areas, new branch of Physics. It's any body's game right now, and that is exciting.
regards,
Thomas Roccetta
If you has said "caused", I would say "no". There is no known, direct link.
However, saying "affect" forces me to say "yes"; though nothing "in the books" as of yet.
Because I believe EQ's to be a non-linear dynamic (with SEC), with several steps involved, "cause" might be biting off too much.
It would not be the GRB itself (defined as the gamma rays & following "light" that we see), but rather, the postulated gravity wave that would go along with the cause of the GRB. (and, of course, they have to be "aimed" at Earth)
I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.
I can link some interesting papers on this, and talk further when I have more time. Just wanted to get an answer out there. Also, to point out that I spend zero time monitoring GRB's, nor do I have any specific energy transfer mechanism worked out. I have no specific way to predict the magnitude of a quake, other than the occasional "educated guess", when pointing out "fault trends", where EQ's in one region are mirrored in another (separate) region. I do believe that this will be able to be performed "on the ground", after a specific location is identified.
The main thrust of this developing theory, is predicting the time and location of EQ's, from 2 to 4 days in advance, based on approximations derived from the extent and "shape" of coronal holes, solar wind speed, and a "lensing" performed by our (fluctuating) magnetopause. There are other factors as well, SW density, Alfven speed, Mach, IMF azimuth, magnetograms, etc. , but that gives the over-all idea.
Not all EQ's will have this as the cause; there are aftershock groups, and re-connection shocks as well. My premise is that the Earth does not jump out of equilibrium on its' own; it is brought out of equilibrium by energy from the Sun (or elsewhere), and then dissipates back to a steady state. Note that the "steady state" includes a steady flow of smaller EQ's.
There are many ideas/theories concerning this data, but none that I'm aware of, are going PAST the "biosphere" as pre-cursor, and looking for the CAUSE of those EM/Seismic pre-cursors. I can be right, without (most of) those ideas being wrong. This is wide open, and full of little understood areas, new branch of Physics. It's any body's game right now, and that is exciting.
regards,
Thomas Roccetta
QUOTE (TRoc+Dec 27 2007, 08:43 PM)
I usually refer to this as "bow-shock", when talking about the solar wind, and CIR's. But the concept is essentially the same. The result is the rapid oscillation in our magnetopause. This is also referred to as "collisionless shock", among other things.
That does sound a bit scary.
Thank you very much for your reply. More specifically now, could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally? I ask since it's currently one of my personal thought experiments.
Thank you,
PJ Parent
P.S. (re: rapid oscillation in our magnetopause) superluminal wavehock of the supermetallic core... rogues...
Thanks for the crash course on EQ's. It is very amazing and very interesting.
That does sound a bit scary.
Thank you very much for your reply. More specifically now, could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally? I ask since it's currently one of my personal thought experiments.
Thank you,
PJ Parent
P.S. (re: rapid oscillation in our magnetopause) superluminal wavehock of the supermetallic core... rogues...
Thanks for the crash course on EQ's. It is very amazing and very interesting.
I can imagine a rogue gravitywave affecting ocean tides and tectonic plates along with one's sense of gravity.
Hi all,
PJ, just keep in mind that I said, "nothing "in the books" as of yet"; I'm not trying to set myself up there, but trying to make sure that readers will not go away saying, "Thanks for the crash course on EQ's".
I'm not picking on you, but we need to be clear on this. I agree with the mind-set of many on the forum, that are "peeved" about pet theories being promoted as "truth". As long as the proper "disclosures" are made, then we are being scientific. This is a process, and for the thread itself, I am doing this "open book" in the hopes that some of these young guns can put their new skills to new, unanswered, real-world problems. My cart is full, and I am "old & in the way", as far as the new math is concerned.
What I am going to do, as time permits, is post some of my "case studies", so that they can be reviewed by a large audience. This is "cyber publishing"; according to the laws of copyright, this thread is "publishing". As this is, AFAIK, new work and theory, then I would ask that the proper reference be made (why I put my full name in the last post). For the rest of it, as usual in Science, there is much more work to be done, and that means opportunity for someone else.
Also as time permits, I will do "weekly forecasts" for EQ activity, and when time (and simple coronal structures) permit, do more specific, time and location predictions. As has been pointed out to me by Rafael Peralta, and Trippy, without being able to predict magnitude, along with very accurate predictions, there isn't much point in "going public" with any warnings; I agree. I do feel, however, (and will give more details) that on the ground, in the vicinity of an impending quake, that a method can be developed to determine magnitude. That is the importance of giving a 3 day, time and location prediction: to get the equipment in place. Right now, there are only a few places in the World with the equipment permanently installed. Much along the lines of flying dog teams into certain disasters to sniff for survivors, a team could be assembled with the proper devices. After some success, EQ prone areas would be prompted to get their own, permanent equipment.
To your question, if I understand it correctly, "could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally", you are asking if the GRB happens before, and not with the EQ? The answer is yes. There are great distances to be covered, and a great amount of time; necessarily, the GRB would happen before the EQ.. probably by thousands of years! Of course, this is "nothing" on the scale of the Universe, but you can see why this might be left "off the table", in a linear approximation~theory.
Even "rogue waves" were thought to be "sailor's myths", until fairly recent times. Prevailing theory (linear) predicted that they should occur but once every 10,000 years. In 1980, an oil freighter traveling in S. African waters, reported such a wave; a photo shows what appears to be a wave on the order of the 85 ft masts of the ship. In 1995, the RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 reported surviving an encounter with a 95ft rogue wave. [1]
These reports inspired precise measurements by satellite based lasers, and after which, changed the prevailing theory. "..observations imply that a handful of these waves is occurring at every moment somewhere on the ocean". "Recently, scientists from Sweden and Germany, Padma Shukla et al., have presented the first analysis and simulation of its kind for the instability of nonlinear waves interacting in deep water. " "Using the Schrodinger equations, the scientists studied the impact of different wave speeds and different angles at which two waves intersect. The team found that for a certain, relatively small angle, a new instability arises with a "maximum growth rate that is more than twice as large as the ones for the single wave cases," they report. Two waves meeting at such an angle would escape normal stabilizing effects and exhibit constructive interference that would result in a freak wave. Strong currents can help further by "focusing" waves, continually building them up to giant sizes. " [quotes, and source 1 : Physorg.com "New theory (and old equations) may explain causes of ship-sinking freak waves" 09/2006]
Of course, we know that water waves are different from other waves, but this seems to be a Fundamental principle for all waves. The relatively small angle of intersecting waves, of different speeds, giving rise to a Resonance phenomenon. I have postulated elsewhere, this same methodology for light, separated by slits, or other homogeneous medium (ie crystalline), re-forming (interfering) the fundamental frequency (energy conservation), while undergoing an increase in "intensity/amplitude" (as well as exhibiting dark fringe "beats"). Both water and light can exhibit self-reinforcing boundary conditions: the soliton wave (as well as an "Airy Packet" - Berry, Balazs -1978).
I have worked this out, in an "inverse method", that is, for waves of slightly differing frequencies, separated by a very small time. They too intersect at small angles, giving rise to beats that are independent of the source. These form "caustics", shaping the envelope of the interacting frequencies so that they do not "spread". In Music, this is the "chord": an envelope of interacting frequencies that arrives with the Fundamental frequency "revived" by the small angle intersections that produce Resonance (higher amplitude). So, none of the above is "standard" theory, and should be noted as such. Other than working out a mathematical derivation of a chord, nothing that I'm doing is "original". I am just generalizing; piecing together data from specialists, who would not otherwise be communicating/mixing their ideas to form the larger picture.
Back to these CIR's (co-rotating interacting regions). I am saying that a GRB caused gravity wave is a special case, for the daily interaction of the Solar wind with the Earth's magnetopause. Both have the effect of "ringing" our bell. The timing of these interactions should play the large role in determining the resonant transfer of energy into the mass of the Earth. Any "velocity modulation", like the CIR, has a forward shock, and a rear shock wave associated. This bubble, or envelope, can be inferred by monitoring the conditions of near-Earth space.
Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
regards,
T.Roc
PJ, just keep in mind that I said, "nothing "in the books" as of yet"; I'm not trying to set myself up there, but trying to make sure that readers will not go away saying, "Thanks for the crash course on EQ's".
I'm not picking on you, but we need to be clear on this. I agree with the mind-set of many on the forum, that are "peeved" about pet theories being promoted as "truth". As long as the proper "disclosures" are made, then we are being scientific. This is a process, and for the thread itself, I am doing this "open book" in the hopes that some of these young guns can put their new skills to new, unanswered, real-world problems. My cart is full, and I am "old & in the way", as far as the new math is concerned.
What I am going to do, as time permits, is post some of my "case studies", so that they can be reviewed by a large audience. This is "cyber publishing"; according to the laws of copyright, this thread is "publishing". As this is, AFAIK, new work and theory, then I would ask that the proper reference be made (why I put my full name in the last post). For the rest of it, as usual in Science, there is much more work to be done, and that means opportunity for someone else.
Also as time permits, I will do "weekly forecasts" for EQ activity, and when time (and simple coronal structures) permit, do more specific, time and location predictions. As has been pointed out to me by Rafael Peralta, and Trippy, without being able to predict magnitude, along with very accurate predictions, there isn't much point in "going public" with any warnings; I agree. I do feel, however, (and will give more details) that on the ground, in the vicinity of an impending quake, that a method can be developed to determine magnitude. That is the importance of giving a 3 day, time and location prediction: to get the equipment in place. Right now, there are only a few places in the World with the equipment permanently installed. Much along the lines of flying dog teams into certain disasters to sniff for survivors, a team could be assembled with the proper devices. After some success, EQ prone areas would be prompted to get their own, permanent equipment.
To your question, if I understand it correctly, "could a GRB from a magnetar affect EQ's retrocausally", you are asking if the GRB happens before, and not with the EQ? The answer is yes. There are great distances to be covered, and a great amount of time; necessarily, the GRB would happen before the EQ.. probably by thousands of years! Of course, this is "nothing" on the scale of the Universe, but you can see why this might be left "off the table", in a linear approximation~theory.
Even "rogue waves" were thought to be "sailor's myths", until fairly recent times. Prevailing theory (linear) predicted that they should occur but once every 10,000 years. In 1980, an oil freighter traveling in S. African waters, reported such a wave; a photo shows what appears to be a wave on the order of the 85 ft masts of the ship. In 1995, the RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 reported surviving an encounter with a 95ft rogue wave. [1]
These reports inspired precise measurements by satellite based lasers, and after which, changed the prevailing theory. "..observations imply that a handful of these waves is occurring at every moment somewhere on the ocean". "Recently, scientists from Sweden and Germany, Padma Shukla et al., have presented the first analysis and simulation of its kind for the instability of nonlinear waves interacting in deep water. " "Using the Schrodinger equations, the scientists studied the impact of different wave speeds and different angles at which two waves intersect. The team found that for a certain, relatively small angle, a new instability arises with a "maximum growth rate that is more than twice as large as the ones for the single wave cases," they report. Two waves meeting at such an angle would escape normal stabilizing effects and exhibit constructive interference that would result in a freak wave. Strong currents can help further by "focusing" waves, continually building them up to giant sizes. " [quotes, and source 1 : Physorg.com "New theory (and old equations) may explain causes of ship-sinking freak waves" 09/2006]
Of course, we know that water waves are different from other waves, but this seems to be a Fundamental principle for all waves. The relatively small angle of intersecting waves, of different speeds, giving rise to a Resonance phenomenon. I have postulated elsewhere, this same methodology for light, separated by slits, or other homogeneous medium (ie crystalline), re-forming (interfering) the fundamental frequency (energy conservation), while undergoing an increase in "intensity/amplitude" (as well as exhibiting dark fringe "beats"). Both water and light can exhibit self-reinforcing boundary conditions: the soliton wave (as well as an "Airy Packet" - Berry, Balazs -1978).
I have worked this out, in an "inverse method", that is, for waves of slightly differing frequencies, separated by a very small time. They too intersect at small angles, giving rise to beats that are independent of the source. These form "caustics", shaping the envelope of the interacting frequencies so that they do not "spread". In Music, this is the "chord": an envelope of interacting frequencies that arrives with the Fundamental frequency "revived" by the small angle intersections that produce Resonance (higher amplitude). So, none of the above is "standard" theory, and should be noted as such. Other than working out a mathematical derivation of a chord, nothing that I'm doing is "original". I am just generalizing; piecing together data from specialists, who would not otherwise be communicating/mixing their ideas to form the larger picture.
Back to these CIR's (co-rotating interacting regions). I am saying that a GRB caused gravity wave is a special case, for the daily interaction of the Solar wind with the Earth's magnetopause. Both have the effect of "ringing" our bell. The timing of these interactions should play the large role in determining the resonant transfer of energy into the mass of the Earth. Any "velocity modulation", like the CIR, has a forward shock, and a rear shock wave associated. This bubble, or envelope, can be inferred by monitoring the conditions of near-Earth space.
Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
regards,
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Dec 28 2007, 04:38 PM)
Fortunately, this information is readily available on the internet. The down-side is, that it is updated every 3-5 minutes, and no (gage method) log is kept for past conditions. You would have to wade through piles of numbers, and do your own calculations. This makes the "real time" prediction rather impossible for me alone; it is still possible to use this for "case building", but I am already convinced. Because it is a changing picture (sorry for the computer lame verbiage), these can not be posted here without having a independent host.
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
I'm not sure I understand the point of these last few paragraphs. Are you suggesting that people should, on a relatively frequent basis when a coronal hole is present, go to your link and manually write down the data from the dials and then type that into some other document?
Rice University's (Department of Physics & Astronomy) "Space Weather Dials" LINK (located at Lagrange 1, approx 45 min "upwind" of Earth)
What I can do, is post a new service from Google, "Google Docs" on this thread when a coronal hole is identified. Anyone with the pass-code can modify this document. I won't (for obvious "sabotage" reasons) post the code here, but would give to any "volunteer" who is interested. During the expected time of arrival of a "CHEP" (coronal hole envelope-packet), the more times that these dials can be copied as they change, the more "continuous" the data would be for study. Again, I am already getting good results, but would like to further it; especially in terms of the relationship between the rear shock, and magnetic reconnection on the "far side" of Earth. Also for any magnitude relationship that may be affected by IMF magnitude, convection, Mach number, Thermal energy, etc. Anybody interested, just send a PM. We can take advantage of being at different locations/time in the World; while some are asleep, others are recording this data.
I'm not sure I understand the point of these last few paragraphs. Are you suggesting that people should, on a relatively frequent basis when a coronal hole is present, go to your link and manually write down the data from the dials and then type that into some other document?
barakn,
I'm saying that an organized "team" could do this. It wouldn't be "random people". There would hopefully be something like an organized "shift" for observation/recording. This Google-Doc would be able to be viewed by all, real-time, including changes made, notes, etc. "Volunteers" could be contacted to see if available for a particular slot.
The way I record this now, is to simply drag the cursor across the whole set of dials, and copy/paste it to a word doc, which I start for a particular CH, categorized by date. This doc also has several pics of the CH itself, as well as the relative position/rotation of the Earth. The crucial time is the expected arrival time, which can vary by ~12hrs, depending on the average SW speed. If I miss this time, for all practical purposes, it's gone.
So, it is a little work, but no manual writing or copying. Just click, ctrl-c, click, ctrl-v. That's about it. The point is, that I'm missing vast chunks of data while I am asleep, or doing anything else. The dials are a huge shortcut, compared to requesting access to the raw data, and compiling/computing manually. It can't be done in 45 min, that's for sure!
Again, this could all be "automated", and someday, hopefully, it will. But for now, this is it: private research by "backyard astronomers"and "weekend warriors". But look at their success!
ciao,
T.Roc
I'm saying that an organized "team" could do this. It wouldn't be "random people". There would hopefully be something like an organized "shift" for observation/recording. This Google-Doc would be able to be viewed by all, real-time, including changes made, notes, etc. "Volunteers" could be contacted to see if available for a particular slot.
The way I record this now, is to simply drag the cursor across the whole set of dials, and copy/paste it to a word doc, which I start for a particular CH, categorized by date. This doc also has several pics of the CH itself, as well as the relative position/rotation of the Earth. The crucial time is the expected arrival time, which can vary by ~12hrs, depending on the average SW speed. If I miss this time, for all practical purposes, it's gone.
So, it is a little work, but no manual writing or copying. Just click, ctrl-c, click, ctrl-v. That's about it. The point is, that I'm missing vast chunks of data while I am asleep, or doing anything else. The dials are a huge shortcut, compared to requesting access to the raw data, and compiling/computing manually. It can't be done in 45 min, that's for sure!
Again, this could all be "automated", and someday, hopefully, it will. But for now, this is it: private research by "backyard astronomers"and "weekend warriors". But look at their success!
ciao,
T.Roc
TRoc,
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why couldn't you just get the data from here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace.html
It would take a far better scripter than I to pull the data from the text files automatically. There's also the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files, but if someone could find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data.
Oh, and here's a link to some plots of the data:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html
Maybe I'm missing something here, but why couldn't you just get the data from here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace.html
It would take a far better scripter than I to pull the data from the text files automatically. There's also the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files, but if someone could find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data.
Oh, and here's a link to some plots of the data:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html
Hi barakn,
It's more me and my quirks, I think.
There are several "personal" reasons; my eyesight is declining, and the Doc says it's from too much reading on the monitor. So I try to stay away from bulk "text" reading. I also am a "visual" mentality, and am quite familiar with the gages (their color scheme gives an extra "dimension") already.
The others, you mentioned: ".. the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files". "..find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data", which is just what they are doing at Rice. If it's already being done...
Thanks for the links, though. I would swear that when I looked for that data a few months ago, it was not there; but the second one also looks familiar, so I don't know. I have a bad habit of "crashing" my browser from having too many windows open, and from overloading Adobe with papers. So, sometimes I lose a couple of hours of research, and any links, or papers that I haven't saved. Do you know if it goes back before October? I couldn't find that.
I do use others too:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm
http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2.../29/index.shtml
http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi/servlet/sxibr...9&hr1=19&mn1=01
http://www.raben.com/maps/
http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
(not working right now)
ciao,
T.Roc
It's more me and my quirks, I think.
There are several "personal" reasons; my eyesight is declining, and the Doc says it's from too much reading on the monitor. So I try to stay away from bulk "text" reading. I also am a "visual" mentality, and am quite familiar with the gages (their color scheme gives an extra "dimension") already.
The others, you mentioned: ".. the fact that some of the derived data, like Alfven Speed, Alfven Mach, Mach Number, etc. aren't in the text files". "..find the right algorithms the derived data could be calculated from the principal data", which is just what they are doing at Rice. If it's already being done...
Thanks for the links, though. I would swear that when I looked for that data a few months ago, it was not there; but the second one also looks familiar, so I don't know. I have a bad habit of "crashing" my browser from having too many windows open, and from overloading Adobe with papers. So, sometimes I lose a couple of hours of research, and any links, or papers that I haven't saved. Do you know if it goes back before October? I couldn't find that.
I do use others too:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm
http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2.../29/index.shtml
http://sxi.ngdc.noaa.gov/sxi/servlet/sxibr...9&hr1=19&mn1=01
http://www.raben.com/maps/
http://muir.spasci.com/DynMod/
(not working right now)
ciao,
T.Roc
TRoc,
My eyes are also getting a little .
My one link contains only the last month's worth of 1 and 5 minute data (it's Level 1 or 'Raw' data at that, not cleaned up). A year's worth of hourly data is here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html
Archival level 2 data going all the way back to the beginning of ACE can be found here:
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/index.html
My eyes are also getting a little
.My one link contains only the last month's worth of 1 and 5 minute data (it's Level 1 or 'Raw' data at that, not cleaned up). A year's worth of hourly data is here:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html
Archival level 2 data going all the way back to the beginning of ACE can be found here:
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/level2/index.html
Hi all,
Very nice, barakn; thanks a lot!
This helps reviewing past events considerably.
ciao,
T.Roc
Very nice, barakn; thanks a lot!
This helps reviewing past events considerably.
ciao,
T.Roc
Hi all,
A news item: Earthquake 'memory' could spur aftershocks
http://www.physorg.com/news118590259.html
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
..at Pennsylvania State University, where Marone had developed an apparatus that mimics earthquakes by pressing plates atop a layer of tiny glass beads.
..Johnson wondered whether sound waves could induce earthquakes in such a system. His colleagues originally believed sound would have no effect.
Much to their surprise, the earthquake machine revealed that when sound waves were applied for a short period just before the quake, they could induce smaller quakes, or, in some instances, delay the occurrence of the next major one. The sound waves seemed to affect earthquake behavior for as many as 10 earthquake events after they were applied.
More surprising still, the team found that the granular beads could store a “memory” even after the system had undergone a quake and the beads had rearranged themselves.
Once again, we find someone "brave" enough to question, and the consensus having the (incorrect) answer, before the experimental results. Science is like that.
As I have pondered, we have a definite relationship to EQ and low frequency pre-cursors. This is quickly becoming "main-stream". We also have the ability for storage and memory to take place in the fault lines themselves. Current theory does not have an answer for where EQ energy comes from. So, I can not say that this evidence is against current theory, only that it is able to support the one that I am advancing. The reason I state that there is no good answer for "where from", is that we know less about the interior of the Earth than we do the workings of the Sun, which is far from complete. There is no agreement, and recent suggestions to change the standing idea, of what exactly is at the core of our Planet. We can not even be sure, at this time, whether the Earth actually generates its' own magnetic field, or if this is being done by the Sun.
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
regards,
T.Roc
A news item: Earthquake 'memory' could spur aftershocks
http://www.physorg.com/news118590259.html
QUOTE
In a letter appearing today in Nature, Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleagues Heather Savage, Mike Knuth, Joan Gomberg, and Chris Marone show how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials—like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe—and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake.
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| In a letter appearing today in Nature, Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleagues Heather Savage, Mike Knuth, Joan Gomberg, and Chris Marone show how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials—like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe—and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake. |
I underlined "seismic waves " above, because it is a little "double-speak". Just above this paragraph, the article states this: seismic waves—the sounds radiated from earthquakes. Just below the above paragraph, they state this: "seismic waves—vibrations at the cusp, or below the range of human hearing"
I think that the most general way to say this would be just to say "infrasonic waves", so that the whole group of ULF/VLF/ELF, etc is included. Although, they clearly state that this is on the cusp of human hearing, and our hearing, by individuals, can vary from an average of 20 Hz at the low end, down to 16 Hz, for some people. So, the cusp is ill defined.
..at Pennsylvania State University, where Marone had developed an apparatus that mimics earthquakes by pressing plates atop a layer of tiny glass beads.
..Johnson wondered whether sound waves could induce earthquakes in such a system. His colleagues originally believed sound would have no effect.
Much to their surprise, the earthquake machine revealed that when sound waves were applied for a short period just before the quake, they could induce smaller quakes, or, in some instances, delay the occurrence of the next major one. The sound waves seemed to affect earthquake behavior for as many as 10 earthquake events after they were applied.
More surprising still, the team found that the granular beads could store a “memory” even after the system had undergone a quake and the beads had rearranged themselves.
Once again, we find someone "brave" enough to question, and the consensus having the (incorrect) answer, before the experimental results. Science is like that.
As I have pondered, we have a definite relationship to EQ and low frequency pre-cursors. This is quickly becoming "main-stream". We also have the ability for storage and memory to take place in the fault lines themselves. Current theory does not have an answer for where EQ energy comes from. So, I can not say that this evidence is against current theory, only that it is able to support the one that I am advancing. The reason I state that there is no good answer for "where from", is that we know less about the interior of the Earth than we do the workings of the Sun, which is far from complete. There is no agreement, and recent suggestions to change the standing idea, of what exactly is at the core of our Planet. We can not even be sure, at this time, whether the Earth actually generates its' own magnetic field, or if this is being done by the Sun.
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
QUOTE
The ionosphere is formed by solar X-rays and ultraviolet light, which break apart atoms and molecules in the upper atmosphere, creating a layer of electrically-charged gas known as plasma. The densest part of the ionosphere forms two bands of plasma close to the equator at a height of almost 250 miles.
..
Using pictures from IMAGE, the team discovered four pairs of bright regions where the ionosphere was almost twice as dense as the average.
..
The connection to plasma bands in the ionosphere surprised scientists at first because these tides from the thunderstorms can not affect the ionosphere directly.
..
However, the researchers discovered the tides could affect the plasma bands indirectly by modifying a layer of the atmosphere below the bands that shapes them. Below the plasma bands, a layer of the ionosphere called the E-layer becomes partially electrified during the day. This region creates the plasma bands above it when high-altitude winds blow plasma in the E-layer across the Earth's magnetic field. Since plasma is electrically charged, its motion across the Earth's magnetic field acts like a generator, creating an electric field. This electric field shapes the plasma above into the two bands. Anything that would change the motion of the E-layer plasma would also change the electric fields they generate, which would then reshape the plasma bands above.
..
Using pictures from IMAGE, the team discovered four pairs of bright regions where the ionosphere was almost twice as dense as the average.
..
The connection to plasma bands in the ionosphere surprised scientists at first because these tides from the thunderstorms can not affect the ionosphere directly.
..
However, the researchers discovered the tides could affect the plasma bands indirectly by modifying a layer of the atmosphere below the bands that shapes them. Below the plasma bands, a layer of the ionosphere called the E-layer becomes partially electrified during the day. This region creates the plasma bands above it when high-altitude winds blow plasma in the E-layer across the Earth's magnetic field. Since plasma is electrically charged, its motion across the Earth's magnetic field acts like a generator, creating an electric field. This electric field shapes the plasma above into the two bands. Anything that would change the motion of the E-layer plasma would also change the electric fields they generate, which would then reshape the plasma bands above.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi Troc
Curious if the resonance from the earthquakes (I'm not saying this right, but I don't have time) had anything to do with the volcano? I know the volcano and earthquakes are linked, but could the resonance move magma too? (Do I make sense? Or am I in too much of a hurry?)
Curious if the resonance from the earthquakes (I'm not saying this right, but I don't have time) had anything to do with the volcano? I know the volcano and earthquakes are linked, but could the resonance move magma too? (Do I make sense? Or am I in too much of a hurry?)
"THEY",
I definitely think volcanoes provide another mechanism for dissipation of the Earth's internal energy, much like earthquakes. Seismic resonances as a result of earthquakes could logically trigger magma movement, specifically outward through the crust... the two are undeniably linked.
But TRoc probably knows best
I definitely think volcanoes provide another mechanism for dissipation of the Earth's internal energy, much like earthquakes. Seismic resonances as a result of earthquakes could logically trigger magma movement, specifically outward through the crust... the two are undeniably linked.
But TRoc probably knows best
Hi all,
(add in for THEY): not really a "direct link", but related, I'm sure. Like a fault line, there is energy stored in magma chambers. The right "trigger" would cause the release. I think most commonly, an EQ near a volcano is signaling movement of magma; on the other hand, a non-movement related EQ could cause a shift & release. Also see below for related info.
Report:
First, on Dec 28th, we had an unusual coronal hole formation.
(NASA/Stereo Science Center)
This was unusual because it was "fast", both in formation, and dissipation. It does not appear at all on either the "behind", nor the "ahead" satellite photos.
Typically, when there is "higher activity" (by my method), we are dealing with solar winds at average speeds of ~550 km/s (3 day travel time). Right now, we are in a "low to normal" period (since my last report, before the 28th). In EQ terms, this results in 6 or fewer quakes of 5+ mag per day, and having breaks (in days) between 6+ mag quakes. This has been the case over the last week.
However, our average SW speed during this low period is ~400 km/s. This extends the travel time by one day. So, at 4 days from our "anomalous" CH, the "CHEP" (CH Energy Packet) plots to an area from ~70W lat (coast of S. America) to about 175W (Tonga), and from the equator, down to ~30S long. This is quite a large CH, and oddly shaped, but because of the "fast anomaly", the normal time parameter can't be applied to what would have (under normal formation/dissipation times) been 2 to 3 days existing already, prior to the 28th. In other words, part of the CHEP had an "upwind" angle, and could arrive much earlier (by days). There is a clear partition between this "upwind" portion, and the center. This results in a particular phase, which is also "modulated" by the Earth's rotation (day/night). Also, there is a "trailing" portion, that would be just beyond (east) the zone described above
So, that defines our "hot-zone", and the time frames.
What we ended up with is this:
MAP 5.5 2007/12/28 21:59:42 -19.434 -173.977 35.0 TONGA
(11:59:42 AM at epicenter )
25 hrs later
MAP 5.2 2007/12/29 20:55:21 -19.804 -173.779 10.0 TONGA
(10:55:20 AM at epicenter )
9 1/2 hrs later
MAP 5.7 2007/12/30 06:24:03 -19.390 -173.866 37.5 TONGA
*(08:24:02 PM at epicenter )
then we have:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:59:03 -14.719 -75.374 32.3 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:39:44 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:39:44 -14.747 -75.349 28.0 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:59:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 18:23:37 41.217 71.818 17.2 EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
+(11:23:37 PM at epicenter )
and 12 hrs later
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.346 72.939 37.5 KYRGYZSTAN
(12:32:33 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(05:13:08 AM at epicenter )
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(04:55:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 23:26:58 -15.855 -72.817 59.8 SOUTHERN PERU
*(06:26:57 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 11:44:54 -23.669 -114.840 10.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
*(03:44:54 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 08:42:27 -23.122 -70.586 37.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
*(05:42:27 AM at epicenter )
and, finishing up
MAP 5.4 2008/01/03 11:15:49 -5.925 122.705 10.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2008/01/03 10:58:18 -5.121 152.108 35.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
During this time frame (12/28/07 22:00 UTC to current), I have only left off 2 EQ's in Alaska/Aleutian Is. (because they are after shocks to 7.2), and these 2:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/29 11:20:04 15.307 122.833 10.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2007/12/30 06:42:40 37.633 21.040 10.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
This covers ALL EQ's >5 mag during this time. Data from: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php.
Now, let's look at some other details. From above, marked with " * ": this is to address the question, "do the EQ's only occur directly in line with the Sun/arrival of CHEPs?" The answer is no; the energy "enters" the Earth in that manner, but can travel through, and exit in different, but related areas, via fault lines. The relation is with P-wave (and S-wave) travel behavior.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/glossa...mID=170&alpha=S
This is one of the primary pieces of evidence for a liquid core. While not contrary to this idea, it may also be possible that the "shadow zone" is caused (not measured) because of the type of energy entering these areas, during EQ wave calculations.
We have Alfven waves (or other MHD) arriving in the SW, and by my hypothesis, entering Earth, and delivering energy. See Mysterious Solar Ripples Detected
30 August 2007 http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/070830_sun_waves.html
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
Five satellites launched last February to probe magnetic storms around the Earth will move into prime observing position next month, but they already have produced important new information on the interactions between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field.
..
"The substorm behaved quite unexpectedly," said THEMIS principal investigator Vassilis Angelopoulos, an associate professor of earth and space sciences at UCLA and a research physicist at UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Laboratory. "The auroras surged westward twice as fast as anyone thought possible, crossing 15 degrees of longitude in less than one minute. The storm traversed an entire polar time zone, or 400 miles, in 60 seconds flat."
..
Angelopoulos said he was quite impressed with the substorm's power and estimated the total energy of the two-hour event at 500,000 billion Joules. That's equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake. Where does all that energy come from? THEMIS may have found the answer.
..
THEMIS also has observed a number of explosions in Earth's magnetic bow shock. "The bow shock is like the bow wave in front of a boat," explained Sibeck. "It is where the solar wind first feels the effects of Earth's magnetic field. Sometimes a burst of electrical current within the solar wind will hit the bow shock and -bang! We get an explosion."
..These so-called "hot flow anomalies" occur when a discontinuity in the solar magnetic field - evidenced by an electrical current - hits the bowshock and decelerates from a million miles per hour to a dead stop. The area of plasma heats rapidly by a factor of 10 to as much as 10 million degrees Celsius, exploding in a burst of energy..
(the following quotes taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamics , and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_%28physics%29 )
"The connection between magnetic field lines and fluid in ideal MHD fixes the topology of the magnetic field in the fluid -- for example, if a set of magnetic field lines are tied into a knot, then they will remain so as long as the fluid/plasma has negligible resistivity. This difficulty in reconnecting magnetic field lines makes it possible to store energy by moving the fluid or the source of the magnetic field. The energy can then become available if the conditions for ideal MHD break down, allowing magnetic reconnection that releases the stored energy from the magnetic field."
"Magnetic reconnection in highly conductive systems is important because it concentrates energy in time and space, so that gentle forces applied to a plasma for long periods of time can cause violent explosions and bursts of radiation."
Birkeland currents, "cell" structure/sheets, and plasma filaments play a role; "From the cosmological point of view, the most important new space research discovery is probably the cellular structure of space. As has been seen, in every region of space which is accessible to in situ measurements, there are a number of 'cell walls', sheets of electric currents, which divide space into compartments with different magnetization, temperature, density, etc ." (Hannes Alfven) You can see this in my last post, with the circular relationship between the ionosphere, plasma sheets, and weather.
Also from above EQ list, where I marked with " + ", to show a proposed "dark side" reconnection (magneto-tail).
Take a look at some charts for P-wave travel times, and the "pode / antipode" and shadow zone relationships, for the aforementioned quakes.
Tonga
KYRGYZSTAN/UZBEKISTAN
Greece
continued..
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
regards,
T.Roc
I know this may be a little off topic but have you seen this hole in Guatemala?
I believe it to be earthquake connected...what do you think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QT46LGcz9w
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
You might want to get the attention of Michael Mozina, he has been posting in another thread about the Sun, and seems to really know his stuff.
Ooops!
That's what I get for posting so late at night. MISTAKES!
Let me try again.
That pic was Jan 10, 2008 @ 23:48 UTC
The ave SW speed (from 00:00 Jan 11 to 08:00 Jan 14) was 495 km/s.
check - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
That figures to ~3.3 days (not 4, or ~420 hrs).
As usual, I use whatever "short-cuts" I can find. Helping with the "gears" between the Earth & Sun, as well as "auto tilt" for seasonal axis change, I use "Earth and Moon Viewer" , by John Walker - http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth.
That puts the "from the Sun" view (equator) at 21S 50E. The CH is below the Solar equator by about 10°, so we need to adjust that to ~31S 50E, with an expected time near 08:48 UTC (12:48 local).
I don't mind making mistakes, or having to change from "prediction" to "review"; but I don't like the appearance of "cooking the books".
I say that because of this:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/14 01:20:03 -35.438 53.847 10.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
It is, obviously, on the "dark side", but the location is very good. This is why SW speed alone can not fine tune this postulate. The state of the IMF, like polar angle and azimuth, to estimate what kind of reconnection we were having at that time. This is where the dials are needed. http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html
I don't have that data for that time period.
I will talk about this some more, as well as review the other events, when I get a bit more time.
regards,
T.Roc
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Lord, man! For what it's worth, everybody learns that the hard way. I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary. I hope the data-recovery folks don't bend you over too badly!
Edit: As a matter of fact, I think I'll do a network wide backup this weekend, because... Just because.
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
It seems to happen when people need everything they have to continue their research or keep track of contacts.
Any suggestions on the best back system to use?
I have seen web sites with data back up, however I wonder if a personal back up is better.
I have not backed up in 15 years, so I hope to learn before failing this class.
(add in for THEY): not really a "direct link", but related, I'm sure. Like a fault line, there is energy stored in magma chambers. The right "trigger" would cause the release. I think most commonly, an EQ near a volcano is signaling movement of magma; on the other hand, a non-movement related EQ could cause a shift & release. Also see below for related info.
Report:
First, on Dec 28th, we had an unusual coronal hole formation.
(NASA/Stereo Science Center)
This was unusual because it was "fast", both in formation, and dissipation. It does not appear at all on either the "behind", nor the "ahead" satellite photos.
Typically, when there is "higher activity" (by my method), we are dealing with solar winds at average speeds of ~550 km/s (3 day travel time). Right now, we are in a "low to normal" period (since my last report, before the 28th). In EQ terms, this results in 6 or fewer quakes of 5+ mag per day, and having breaks (in days) between 6+ mag quakes. This has been the case over the last week.
However, our average SW speed during this low period is ~400 km/s. This extends the travel time by one day. So, at 4 days from our "anomalous" CH, the "CHEP" (CH Energy Packet) plots to an area from ~70W lat (coast of S. America) to about 175W (Tonga), and from the equator, down to ~30S long. This is quite a large CH, and oddly shaped, but because of the "fast anomaly", the normal time parameter can't be applied to what would have (under normal formation/dissipation times) been 2 to 3 days existing already, prior to the 28th. In other words, part of the CHEP had an "upwind" angle, and could arrive much earlier (by days). There is a clear partition between this "upwind" portion, and the center. This results in a particular phase, which is also "modulated" by the Earth's rotation (day/night). Also, there is a "trailing" portion, that would be just beyond (east) the zone described above
So, that defines our "hot-zone", and the time frames.
What we ended up with is this:
MAP 5.5 2007/12/28 21:59:42 -19.434 -173.977 35.0 TONGA
(11:59:42 AM at epicenter )
25 hrs later
MAP 5.2 2007/12/29 20:55:21 -19.804 -173.779 10.0 TONGA
(10:55:20 AM at epicenter )
9 1/2 hrs later
MAP 5.7 2007/12/30 06:24:03 -19.390 -173.866 37.5 TONGA
*(08:24:02 PM at epicenter )
then we have:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:59:03 -14.719 -75.374 32.3 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:39:44 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 10:39:44 -14.747 -75.349 28.0 COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
*(05:59:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.0 2007/12/31 18:23:37 41.217 71.818 17.2 EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
+(11:23:37 PM at epicenter )
and 12 hrs later
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.346 72.939 37.5 KYRGYZSTAN
(12:32:33 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(05:13:08 AM at epicenter )
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 E. NEW GUINEA , PNG
*(04:55:03 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 23:26:58 -15.855 -72.817 59.8 SOUTHERN PERU
*(06:26:57 PM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 11:44:54 -23.669 -114.840 10.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
*(03:44:54 AM at epicenter )
MAP 5.1 2008/01/02 08:42:27 -23.122 -70.586 37.1 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
*(05:42:27 AM at epicenter )
and, finishing up
MAP 5.4 2008/01/03 11:15:49 -5.925 122.705 10.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2008/01/03 10:58:18 -5.121 152.108 35.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
During this time frame (12/28/07 22:00 UTC to current), I have only left off 2 EQ's in Alaska/Aleutian Is. (because they are after shocks to 7.2), and these 2:
MAP 5.0 2007/12/29 11:20:04 15.307 122.833 10.0 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2007/12/30 06:42:40 37.633 21.040 10.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
This covers ALL EQ's >5 mag during this time. Data from: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php.
Now, let's look at some other details. From above, marked with " * ": this is to address the question, "do the EQ's only occur directly in line with the Sun/arrival of CHEPs?" The answer is no; the energy "enters" the Earth in that manner, but can travel through, and exit in different, but related areas, via fault lines. The relation is with P-wave (and S-wave) travel behavior.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/glossa...mID=170&alpha=S
This is one of the primary pieces of evidence for a liquid core. While not contrary to this idea, it may also be possible that the "shadow zone" is caused (not measured) because of the type of energy entering these areas, during EQ wave calculations.
We have Alfven waves (or other MHD) arriving in the SW, and by my hypothesis, entering Earth, and delivering energy. See Mysterious Solar Ripples Detected
30 August 2007 http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/070830_sun_waves.html
QUOTE
Mysterious waves that help transport the sun's energy out into space have been detected by scientists for the first time.
..
"Alfven waves can provide us with a window into processes that are fundamental to the workings of the sun and its impacts on Earth," said Steve Tomczyk, a space scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
..
"Alfven waves can provide us with a window into processes that are fundamental to the workings of the sun and its impacts on Earth," said Steve Tomczyk, a space scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Mysterious waves that help transport the sun's energy out into space have been detected by scientists for the first time. .. "Alfven waves can provide us with a window into processes that are fundamental to the workings of the sun and its impacts on Earth," said Steve Tomczyk, a space scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). |
Also see THEMIS probes view auroral substorms, bowshock explosions UC Berkley http://www.physorg.com/news116596840.html
Five satellites launched last February to probe magnetic storms around the Earth will move into prime observing position next month, but they already have produced important new information on the interactions between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field.
..
"The substorm behaved quite unexpectedly," said THEMIS principal investigator Vassilis Angelopoulos, an associate professor of earth and space sciences at UCLA and a research physicist at UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Laboratory. "The auroras surged westward twice as fast as anyone thought possible, crossing 15 degrees of longitude in less than one minute. The storm traversed an entire polar time zone, or 400 miles, in 60 seconds flat."
..
Angelopoulos said he was quite impressed with the substorm's power and estimated the total energy of the two-hour event at 500,000 billion Joules. That's equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake. Where does all that energy come from? THEMIS may have found the answer.
..
THEMIS also has observed a number of explosions in Earth's magnetic bow shock. "The bow shock is like the bow wave in front of a boat," explained Sibeck. "It is where the solar wind first feels the effects of Earth's magnetic field. Sometimes a burst of electrical current within the solar wind will hit the bow shock and -bang! We get an explosion."
..These so-called "hot flow anomalies" occur when a discontinuity in the solar magnetic field - evidenced by an electrical current - hits the bowshock and decelerates from a million miles per hour to a dead stop. The area of plasma heats rapidly by a factor of 10 to as much as 10 million degrees Celsius, exploding in a burst of energy..
(the following quotes taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetohydrodynamics , and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_%28physics%29 )
"The connection between magnetic field lines and fluid in ideal MHD fixes the topology of the magnetic field in the fluid -- for example, if a set of magnetic field lines are tied into a knot, then they will remain so as long as the fluid/plasma has negligible resistivity. This difficulty in reconnecting magnetic field lines makes it possible to store energy by moving the fluid or the source of the magnetic field. The energy can then become available if the conditions for ideal MHD break down, allowing magnetic reconnection that releases the stored energy from the magnetic field."
"Magnetic reconnection in highly conductive systems is important because it concentrates energy in time and space, so that gentle forces applied to a plasma for long periods of time can cause violent explosions and bursts of radiation."
Birkeland currents, "cell" structure/sheets, and plasma filaments play a role; "From the cosmological point of view, the most important new space research discovery is probably the cellular structure of space. As has been seen, in every region of space which is accessible to in situ measurements, there are a number of 'cell walls', sheets of electric currents, which divide space into compartments with different magnetization, temperature, density, etc ." (Hannes Alfven) You can see this in my last post, with the circular relationship between the ionosphere, plasma sheets, and weather.
Also from above EQ list, where I marked with " + ", to show a proposed "dark side" reconnection (magneto-tail).
Take a look at some charts for P-wave travel times, and the "pode / antipode" and shadow zone relationships, for the aforementioned quakes.
Tonga
KYRGYZSTAN/UZBEKISTAN
Greece
continued..
..continued
Peru/Chile
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php) select event, click "Scientific & Technical", then click "Theoretical P-Wave Travel Times"
With these charts, you can see a little clearer, the over-all pattern, as well as the (proposed) “phase timing” of tail reconnection events, and how they harmonically mesh with incoming energy, via MHD waves bound in the SW.
Also, a little closer to home: not on the above list was a 4.8 centered near Curico’, Chile (34.8° S , 71.2° W ), on Jan 1, 2008, which I personally felt. (http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/sisnac.pl...01&id_tipo=0&R=)
On that same day, and “right on time”, based on the ~400km/s SW speed, 2 Volcanoes (SANGAY in Ecuador 2.002°S, 78.341°W, and LLAIMA in Chile 38.692°S, 71.729°W) went onto the “New Activity/Unrest” list at http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
.
Also “right on time”, expecting a “bump” in SW speed on Jan 1, 2008:
, which you can see here, along with a rise in SW temp, and magnetic changes. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html )
So, as to “THEY’s” question, these two events are quite close in location (3°) and time, which seems “related”. I don't think that this was magma flow, but we are left with the possibility.
Smoke rises from the Llaima volcano, located some 850 km (528 miles) south of Santiago, Jan. 1, 2008. The Llaima volcano in southern Chile erupted on Tuesday, sending a huge plume of smoke into the air, but there were no reports of damages or injuries, emergency officials said. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Jan. 2, 2008 (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Regards,
T.Roc
Peru/Chile
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_big.php) select event, click "Scientific & Technical", then click "Theoretical P-Wave Travel Times"
With these charts, you can see a little clearer, the over-all pattern, as well as the (proposed) “phase timing” of tail reconnection events, and how they harmonically mesh with incoming energy, via MHD waves bound in the SW.
Also, a little closer to home: not on the above list was a 4.8 centered near Curico’, Chile (34.8° S , 71.2° W ), on Jan 1, 2008, which I personally felt. (http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/sisnac.pl...01&id_tipo=0&R=)
On that same day, and “right on time”, based on the ~400km/s SW speed, 2 Volcanoes (SANGAY in Ecuador 2.002°S, 78.341°W, and LLAIMA in Chile 38.692°S, 71.729°W) went onto the “New Activity/Unrest” list at http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
.
Also “right on time”, expecting a “bump” in SW speed on Jan 1, 2008:
, which you can see here, along with a rise in SW temp, and magnetic changes. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html )So, as to “THEY’s” question, these two events are quite close in location (3°) and time, which seems “related”. I don't think that this was magma flow, but we are left with the possibility.
Smoke rises from the Llaima volcano, located some 850 km (528 miles) south of Santiago, Jan. 1, 2008. The Llaima volcano in southern Chile erupted on Tuesday, sending a huge plume of smoke into the air, but there were no reports of damages or injuries, emergency officials said. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Jan. 2, 2008 (Xinhua/Reuters Photo)
Regards,
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Jan 3 2008, 01:39 PM)
Current EQ theory, including the newer tendency to look to our ionosphere for changes/pre-cursors, is focused with "head down"; looking for the cause of quakes, and said ionospheric changes to come from within the Earth. (the ill defined "core") I am not suggesting that we do not include "looking down", but merely, that we "look up", all the way to the Sun, for a non-linear, systemic approach to what causes/generates the energy that dissipates by "earth-quake".
Here is a recent article, that describes the circular connection. First Global Connection Between Earth And Space Weather Found http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/t...ather_link.html (tip by PhysOrg news)
regards,
T.Roc
I know this may be a little off topic but have you seen this hole in Guatemala?
I believe it to be earthquake connected...what do you think?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QT46LGcz9w
Hi tikay,
Well, I am having a hard time imagining the connection to EQs, but if you have something... I'm listening.
Seems more water related, but I don't buy the "plumbing" problem explanation (not entirely). Maybe some "percolating" of a pocket of water for a long time?
What were those worms called in Dune?
ciao.
T.Roc
QUOTE
I believe it to be earthquake connected...what do you think?
Well, I am having a hard time imagining the connection to EQs, but if you have something... I'm listening.
Seems more water related, but I don't buy the "plumbing" problem explanation (not entirely). Maybe some "percolating" of a pocket of water for a long time?
What were those worms called in Dune?
ciao.
T.Roc
Okay I'll admit I have nothing...to connect it to EQs. I surrender!
I was always at your mercy...and I never read or saw Dune, so again...LOST!
I just thought to big/deep to be a water or water pipes problem. The circular shape is curious, maybe the two who fell in were Alice and her sister?
I was always at your mercy...and I never read or saw Dune, so again...LOST!
I just thought to big/deep to be a water or water pipes problem. The circular shape is curious, maybe the two who fell in were Alice and her sister?
Hi all,
tikay pulled a "Frenchman's Bluff" (ending with full surrender)
I linked the wrong (or bad idea) chart in the last "report" post. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html ) This chart will be irrelevant in a few days, because it "auto-adjusts" to the current date. I should have linked to the fixed table: December , and January (08) .
The important thing to note, is a high point (@ 04:00) of 393 (km/s) on an "acceleration curve"(ac), and the low point (@ 19:00) of 347 on a "deceleration curve"(dc). This method is "daily averages"; the "true" low point was at 23:00, but the dc extended well into Jan 02, to the low of 326. The correlation to the >5 mag events on Jan 01 is a very good fit:
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/01 06:34:02 -6.220 103.602 35.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.334 72.960 41.1 KYRGYZSTAN
Also worth noting, is the ion temp curves match well to the bulk speed curves, with the ac-dc peaks occurring about 2 hrs prior to the bulk speed peaks.
I will keep saying this throughout, so it is not overlooked: I am very confident that these patterns I am pointing out will lead to both a new understanding of "EQ energy", in a SEC manner, and a method by which to predict earthquakes. The details are still being "ironed out". Changing my data sources (as I have done several times over the past 2 years) both has resulted in more accurate details, and a change in descriptive terms. I hope no one is discouraged by the latter.
I was a bit under the weather for the past 24 hrs, so I missed the opportunity for "prediction", and now can only give a "report" style post. Both are good in the long run; the data speaks for itself.
Our "low activity" period ended on 01/04/2008, and we started a "high activity" period on 1/5/08. This is the result of a coronal hole that developed on Dec 31, 2007. (and more CH's directly following, including a flare)
Here, I am showing the CH on Dec 31, 2007. The method that I use, is to find the time when the CH is dead-center. Using these photos (EUV 195), visual estimations are the only choice. The center of this, by estimation, was 1/2 way between 12/31 & 01/01 (both were taken at ~23:48), with the mid-point being just slightly closer to Dec 31. The mid-point would be ~11:48 Jan 1, and subtracting ~ 2 hrs to push the center closer to the 31st of Dec. , so roughly 09:48 . Also note a small CH just below, and to the right, or ahead in time.
The SW during the days following these CH's was low, as noted. The average, I calculated to be ~330 km/s, which translates to 5 days (120 hrs) travel time. This gives us our "alert", to look at SW activity on Jan 5, and also to expect a rise in activity on the 4th as well. For those interested in the specific calculation: Distance from Sun to Earth = 1.439e8 km / SW velocity / 60 / 60 / 24 . Also, keep in mind this is not a "straight shot", we have a spiral phase:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_spiral
So, here is the >5 mag activity for 1/4/08:
MAP 5.9 2008/01/04 07:29:18 -2.775 101.031 35.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.7 2008/01/04 01:26:28 -21.408 -68.237 89.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
These locations are very close to antipodal, in the context of P-wave travel modes.
The main CH feature, centered @ 09:48 Jan 01. 2008, aligns with ~23 S 33 W ; with the "group velocity", or SW ave speed calculating to 5 days, this puts the CHEP arriving on Jan 6. However, keep in mind the interactive MHD spiral form, and the change in SW speeds, on a micro scale (by hours or minutes, vs days), is similar to a "phase velocity". We can expect certain energetic components of the wave to arrive "off phase" ( +/- 1 day).
So, let's take a look at Jan 5, 2008 SW data (bulk speed): http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
On a "low activity" day, like the analysis early in this post, the "curves" suffice to show the pattern. However, on a higher activity day, we can just look for sharp changes in velocity; "accelerations/de-accelerations" are what is important.
Here are the "top 4" changes in SW bulk speed, for 1/5:
Period........Change ( in km/sec )
09:00 - 10:00 -39
07:00 - 08:00 +31
21:00 - 22:00 +28
10:00 - 11:00 +22
Since 2 of these top 4 changes occur in our "window", this should lead to the "top activity" in terms of EQ's.
Here is all >5 mag EQ on Jan 05, 2008:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/05 20:01:56 5.471 94.695 69.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 12:00:20 51.550 -130.795 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:44:48 51.171 -130.556 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:01:05 51.299 -130.713 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 10:39:15 51.396 -130.252 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 09:13:34 14.198 124.475 69.9 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.9 2008/01/05 07:29:34 -22.737 -68.367 102.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 5.3 2008/01/05 06:18:48 14.229 124.595 35.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 06:02:26 14.281 124.594 39.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 01:56:51 14.191 -91.407 108.7 GUATEMALA
(USGS)
Again, we get a very good agreement between SW speed, and EQ activity.
The top quake for the day, has this P-wave antipode map:
(neic.usgs.gov)
which agrees with the location of the estimated arrival point, ~23 S 33 W . (antipodal)
The other EQ's all have "matches", similar in concept to spherical harmonics:
GUATEMALA
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
and
(continued)
tikay pulled a "Frenchman's Bluff" (ending with full surrender)
I linked the wrong (or bad idea) chart in the last "report" post. ( http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html ) This chart will be irrelevant in a few days, because it "auto-adjusts" to the current date. I should have linked to the fixed table: December , and January (08) .
The important thing to note, is a high point (@ 04:00) of 393 (km/s) on an "acceleration curve"(ac), and the low point (@ 19:00) of 347 on a "deceleration curve"(dc). This method is "daily averages"; the "true" low point was at 23:00, but the dc extended well into Jan 02, to the low of 326. The correlation to the >5 mag events on Jan 01 is a very good fit:
MAP 5.8 2008/01/01 19:13:08 -5.969 146.915 61.3 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 6.3 2008/01/01 18:55:04 -5.994 146.912 73.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/01 06:34:02 -6.220 103.602 35.0 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.6 2008/01/01 06:32:33 40.334 72.960 41.1 KYRGYZSTAN
Also worth noting, is the ion temp curves match well to the bulk speed curves, with the ac-dc peaks occurring about 2 hrs prior to the bulk speed peaks.
I will keep saying this throughout, so it is not overlooked: I am very confident that these patterns I am pointing out will lead to both a new understanding of "EQ energy", in a SEC manner, and a method by which to predict earthquakes. The details are still being "ironed out". Changing my data sources (as I have done several times over the past 2 years) both has resulted in more accurate details, and a change in descriptive terms. I hope no one is discouraged by the latter.
I was a bit under the weather for the past 24 hrs, so I missed the opportunity for "prediction", and now can only give a "report" style post. Both are good in the long run; the data speaks for itself.
Our "low activity" period ended on 01/04/2008, and we started a "high activity" period on 1/5/08. This is the result of a coronal hole that developed on Dec 31, 2007. (and more CH's directly following, including a flare)
Here, I am showing the CH on Dec 31, 2007. The method that I use, is to find the time when the CH is dead-center. Using these photos (EUV 195), visual estimations are the only choice. The center of this, by estimation, was 1/2 way between 12/31 & 01/01 (both were taken at ~23:48), with the mid-point being just slightly closer to Dec 31. The mid-point would be ~11:48 Jan 1, and subtracting ~ 2 hrs to push the center closer to the 31st of Dec. , so roughly 09:48 . Also note a small CH just below, and to the right, or ahead in time.
The SW during the days following these CH's was low, as noted. The average, I calculated to be ~330 km/s, which translates to 5 days (120 hrs) travel time. This gives us our "alert", to look at SW activity on Jan 5, and also to expect a rise in activity on the 4th as well. For those interested in the specific calculation: Distance from Sun to Earth = 1.439e8 km / SW velocity / 60 / 60 / 24 . Also, keep in mind this is not a "straight shot", we have a spiral phase:
QUOTE
The spiral shape is similar to the pattern produced by a spinning lawn sprinkler, for similar reasons: the solar wind travels outward from the Sun at a uniform rate, but an individual jet of solar wind from a particular feature on the Sun's surface rotates with the solar rotation, making a spiral pattern in space. Unlike the jet from a sprinkler, the solar wind is tied to the magnetic field by MHD effects, so that magnetic field lines are tied to the material in the jet and take on an arithmetic spiral shape.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_spiral
So, here is the >5 mag activity for 1/4/08:
MAP 5.9 2008/01/04 07:29:18 -2.775 101.031 35.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.7 2008/01/04 01:26:28 -21.408 -68.237 89.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
These locations are very close to antipodal, in the context of P-wave travel modes.
The main CH feature, centered @ 09:48 Jan 01. 2008, aligns with ~23 S 33 W ; with the "group velocity", or SW ave speed calculating to 5 days, this puts the CHEP arriving on Jan 6. However, keep in mind the interactive MHD spiral form, and the change in SW speeds, on a micro scale (by hours or minutes, vs days), is similar to a "phase velocity". We can expect certain energetic components of the wave to arrive "off phase" ( +/- 1 day).
So, let's take a look at Jan 5, 2008 SW data (bulk speed): http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
On a "low activity" day, like the analysis early in this post, the "curves" suffice to show the pattern. However, on a higher activity day, we can just look for sharp changes in velocity; "accelerations/de-accelerations" are what is important.
Here are the "top 4" changes in SW bulk speed, for 1/5:
Period........Change ( in km/sec )
09:00 - 10:00 -39
07:00 - 08:00 +31
21:00 - 22:00 +28
10:00 - 11:00 +22
Since 2 of these top 4 changes occur in our "window", this should lead to the "top activity" in terms of EQ's.
Here is all >5 mag EQ on Jan 05, 2008:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/05 20:01:56 5.471 94.695 69.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 12:00:20 51.550 -130.795 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:44:48 51.171 -130.556 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.5 2008/01/05 11:01:05 51.299 -130.713 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 10:39:15 51.396 -130.252 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 09:13:34 14.198 124.475 69.9 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.9 2008/01/05 07:29:34 -22.737 -68.367 102.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
MAP 5.3 2008/01/05 06:18:48 14.229 124.595 35.0 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.0 2008/01/05 06:02:26 14.281 124.594 39.1 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.6 2008/01/05 01:56:51 14.191 -91.407 108.7 GUATEMALA
(USGS)
Again, we get a very good agreement between SW speed, and EQ activity.
The top quake for the day, has this P-wave antipode map:
(neic.usgs.gov)
which agrees with the location of the estimated arrival point, ~23 S 33 W . (antipodal)
The other EQ's all have "matches", similar in concept to spherical harmonics:
GUATEMALA
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
and
(continued)
continued..
CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
As for today (01/06/08), we have a set of "aftershocks" (SW phase) in the same locations, except for one (as of Update time = Sun Jan 6 17:13:07 UTC 2008)
SOUTHERN GREECE
MAP 6.1 2008/01/06 05:14:17 37.150 22.934 50.9 SOUTHERN GREECE
This one stands apart, and I find no correlating CH. So, I will "predict" that we get a >5 mag quake in its' antipodal region. Somewhere in a circular area near 40 S 160 W, by the end of today.
regards,
T.Roc
CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
As for today (01/06/08), we have a set of "aftershocks" (SW phase) in the same locations, except for one (as of Update time = Sun Jan 6 17:13:07 UTC 2008)
SOUTHERN GREECE
MAP 6.1 2008/01/06 05:14:17 37.150 22.934 50.9 SOUTHERN GREECE
This one stands apart, and I find no correlating CH. So, I will "predict" that we get a >5 mag quake in its' antipodal region. Somewhere in a circular area near 40 S 160 W, by the end of today.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
I'm used to getting the "raspberry" for magnitude estimations.
I get another one.
the good part:
MAP 4.9 2008/01/06 18:30:06 -18.245 -177.927 515.9 FIJI REGION
ciao,
T.Roc
I'm used to getting the "raspberry" for magnitude estimations.
I get another one.
the good part:
MAP 4.9 2008/01/06 18:30:06 -18.245 -177.927 515.9 FIJI REGION
ciao,
T.Roc
Hi all,
I'm going to be gone for a few days, so I'm going to miss the next round of events.
High activity to continue for the next week.
Coronal Holes (CH)
4-Jan-2008
Since the SW speed is up to 600+ km/s, the transit time is down to 2.5 days. The above CH is already here. Not the stronger part.
5-Jan-2008
Notice the upper CH opened up quite a bit. That one looks to be headed for N.E. Africa.
6-Jan-2008
The flare creates faster SW speeds than a CH; it will catch up to, and pass the "CHEP" (and modulate). This gives an extra shock wave. This concept is a CIR, co-rotating interacting region; it should produce more activity.
There will be plenty to do when I return.
regards,
T.Roc
I'm going to be gone for a few days, so I'm going to miss the next round of events.
High activity to continue for the next week.
Coronal Holes (CH)
4-Jan-2008
Since the SW speed is up to 600+ km/s, the transit time is down to 2.5 days. The above CH is already here. Not the stronger part.
5-Jan-2008
Notice the upper CH opened up quite a bit. That one looks to be headed for N.E. Africa.
6-Jan-2008
The flare creates faster SW speeds than a CH; it will catch up to, and pass the "CHEP" (and modulate). This gives an extra shock wave. This concept is a CIR, co-rotating interacting region; it should produce more activity.
There will be plenty to do when I return.
regards,
T.Roc
Interesting article, you probably are somewhat aware of this (not really a new idea) but just something extra to think about when predicting.
Livescience article
Livescience article
Hi all,
Thanks THEY, for the article link. I also found a "related story" linked to it.
I'm too tired for a full review, but wanted to post the results of this prediction: "N.E. Africa", that I made on the 7th.
MAP 4.8 2008/01/09 22:24:05 35.769 -0.531 15.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA
That one "looks good on paper", but this one:
MAP 6.4 2008/01/09 08:26:46 32.315 85.179 10.0 WESTERN XIZANG
is a better fit, by my method. When it occurred, it was close to noon in N.E. Africa (at the same latitude), the "hot spot". Direct hit; scattered energy waves. The 4.8 was an "exit wound", happening close to mid-night, local time. Good symmetry; good example of "lensing" performed by the Earth's magnetosphere.
Unlike the recent S Hemisphere "antipodal" relationships, this CHEP was above the equator (~35 N), and was "refracted" downwards, parallel with the equator. This is a "seasonal" effect, due to the angle of the equator, in relation to the Sun.
regards,
T.Roc
Thanks THEY, for the article link. I also found a "related story" linked to it.
I'm too tired for a full review, but wanted to post the results of this prediction: "N.E. Africa", that I made on the 7th.
MAP 4.8 2008/01/09 22:24:05 35.769 -0.531 15.0 NORTHERN ALGERIA
That one "looks good on paper", but this one:
MAP 6.4 2008/01/09 08:26:46 32.315 85.179 10.0 WESTERN XIZANG
is a better fit, by my method. When it occurred, it was close to noon in N.E. Africa (at the same latitude), the "hot spot". Direct hit; scattered energy waves. The 4.8 was an "exit wound", happening close to mid-night, local time. Good symmetry; good example of "lensing" performed by the Earth's magnetosphere.
Unlike the recent S Hemisphere "antipodal" relationships, this CHEP was above the equator (~35 N), and was "refracted" downwards, parallel with the equator. This is a "seasonal" effect, due to the angle of the equator, in relation to the Sun.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
The EQ activity derived from the CH's shown above (Jan 4 - 6) has "played out". We are back in the "saddle", or low period, for now. The >5 activity was a little lower than expected; we would need to "lower the bar" to >4.8, in order to get the number of quakes per day (based on CH activity) to what was expected (as "higher" period). The definition of "high" or "low" is arbitrary, though.
Glancing at the global weather, we had very windy conditions experienced, as well as "severity".
The general case, of relating large changes/fluctuations in SW speed to EQ activity, was shown again on Jan 6. The largest fluctuation was in the period of 05:00 - 06:00, at +24 km/s, and the largest EQ for the day, was a 6.1 at 05:14:17 (SOUTHERN GREECE).
However, this general relationship is not "always" true. There is not a 100% correlation of "every large fluctuation generates an EQ". This is especially true, when the SW speed is at higher levels, as was seen on Jan 7. The Flare shown in the post above, not only produced a peak for the several days covered in this forecast (706 km/s), but "modulated" the SW created by the CH's.
When a Flare comes behind (after) a CH, it tends to cause "destructive interference", and smoothes out fluctuations (the "eye" of the CIR). This lines up with the "dip" in activity the latter part of Jan 7, and Jan 8. The response of the magnetosphere (MS) "contracts" to this bulk speed increase as well, and may be able to dissipate "CHEPS's" more efficiently, or "outwardly".
If a Flare comes before a CH, a "constructive interference" seems to occur. If you think of the "dead zone" directly behind a jet, then you can imagine the MS "relaxing" a bit, only to get slammed by the CH produced "energy packet", or "burst" fluctuation.
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
The EQ activity derived from the CH's shown above (Jan 4 - 6) has "played out". We are back in the "saddle", or low period, for now. The >5 activity was a little lower than expected; we would need to "lower the bar" to >4.8, in order to get the number of quakes per day (based on CH activity) to what was expected (as "higher" period). The definition of "high" or "low" is arbitrary, though.
Glancing at the global weather, we had very windy conditions experienced, as well as "severity".
The general case, of relating large changes/fluctuations in SW speed to EQ activity, was shown again on Jan 6. The largest fluctuation was in the period of 05:00 - 06:00, at +24 km/s, and the largest EQ for the day, was a 6.1 at 05:14:17 (SOUTHERN GREECE).
However, this general relationship is not "always" true. There is not a 100% correlation of "every large fluctuation generates an EQ". This is especially true, when the SW speed is at higher levels, as was seen on Jan 7. The Flare shown in the post above, not only produced a peak for the several days covered in this forecast (706 km/s), but "modulated" the SW created by the CH's.
When a Flare comes behind (after) a CH, it tends to cause "destructive interference", and smoothes out fluctuations (the "eye" of the CIR). This lines up with the "dip" in activity the latter part of Jan 7, and Jan 8. The response of the magnetosphere (MS) "contracts" to this bulk speed increase as well, and may be able to dissipate "CHEPS's" more efficiently, or "outwardly".
If a Flare comes before a CH, a "constructive interference" seems to occur. If you think of the "dead zone" directly behind a jet, then you can imagine the MS "relaxing" a bit, only to get slammed by the CH produced "energy packet", or "burst" fluctuation.
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
QUOTE (TRoc+Jan 11 2008, 07:01 AM)
The ion temp has a role in this, that I am still trying to grasp. Any comments/suggestions are welcome!
ciao,
T.Roc
You might want to get the attention of Michael Mozina, he has been posting in another thread about the Sun, and seems to really know his stuff.
Just that it seems like your research is unprecedented and it is very interesting to me!
(keep up the good work!)
(keep up the good work!)
Hi all,
Thanks soundhertz, and THEY, for the tips.
The slower period should end today. (Jan 14)
(stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov)
That is Jan 10; ave SW speed since then ~420 km/s.
That puts it arriving to Earth today, in the area of Tonga - Fiji, at "high noon".
regards,
T.Roc
Thanks soundhertz, and THEY, for the tips.
The slower period should end today. (Jan 14)
(stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov)
That is Jan 10; ave SW speed since then ~420 km/s.
That puts it arriving to Earth today, in the area of Tonga - Fiji, at "high noon".
regards,
T.Roc
Ooops!
That's what I get for posting so late at night. MISTAKES!
Let me try again.
That pic was Jan 10, 2008 @ 23:48 UTC
The ave SW speed (from 00:00 Jan 11 to 08:00 Jan 14) was 495 km/s.
check - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2...e_swepam_1h.txt
That figures to ~3.3 days (not 4, or ~420 hrs).
As usual, I use whatever "short-cuts" I can find. Helping with the "gears" between the Earth & Sun, as well as "auto tilt" for seasonal axis change, I use "Earth and Moon Viewer" , by John Walker - http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth.
That puts the "from the Sun" view (equator) at 21S 50E. The CH is below the Solar equator by about 10°, so we need to adjust that to ~31S 50E, with an expected time near 08:48 UTC (12:48 local).
I don't mind making mistakes, or having to change from "prediction" to "review"; but I don't like the appearance of "cooking the books".
I say that because of this:
MAP 5.4 2008/01/14 01:20:03 -35.438 53.847 10.0 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
It is, obviously, on the "dark side", but the location is very good. This is why SW speed alone can not fine tune this postulate. The state of the IMF, like polar angle and azimuth, to estimate what kind of reconnection we were having at that time. This is where the dials are needed. http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html
I don't have that data for that time period.
I will talk about this some more, as well as review the other events, when I get a bit more time.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
Just wanted to post an update.
I had been working on a few things, some "case studies" of past events, and a post on the "changing shape & extent" of the magnetopause, and another, more extensive one on "the various modes of coupling SW energy to Earth, combined with the several types and their relative positions in reconnection events".
The last 3 months of research have been very productive, turning up a stack of supporting papers, and links to many, very good websites covering this vast, and exciting new area of Physics. There was much more pertaining to my hypothesis than I had imagined, or hoped for.
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Needless to say, my "sails are slack" right now. This data was largely in "brainstorm mode", meaning that most of it had only been gone through in "over-view", and not sorted or organized. This means trying to duplicate it will be very hard, if not exactly impossible. I am hopeful that my browser history will be one of the things that is salvaged, as well as a couple or Word docs, that had my initial rough drafts, and reference list. The case studies can be re-done, but with a great deal of time (again).
On EQ activity, >,= 5 mag:
Jan 26 = 1
Jan 27 = 0
Jan 28 = 3
Jan 29 = 2
This is a very low period. I do not recall seeing one this low (take with salt). The SW was correspondingly calm.
Given my comments on the Solar Cycles ( link to post ), this may have been the "eye of the storm". We are definitely "primed" for a 7 or better quake right now. There is SW activity arriving today, and for the next couple of days that should increase the activity. It could "trigger" the stored energy that I think has been occurring over the past several weeks. Statistically, I would say we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days. This is one of those "of course" statements, but combined with some good location & time forecasts, could make for a "valuable" prediction.
Also of interest: NASA/STEREO news shows a "Solar Tsunami" on there website ( LINK ).
(there is an 8 sec video at that link)
Given the SW speeds, as I have discussed previously, for "flare" type events, this energy would be traveling at a pace bringing it to Earth is 2 days.
2007 12 09 - South of the Fiji Islands - M 7.8
This was the largest EQ since this pair:
2007 09 12 - Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia - M 7.9
2007 09 12 - Southern Sumatra, Indonesia - M 8.4
In fairness, there was a 7.7 in Antofogasta, Chile, on Nov 14, 2008.
But, there was also CH lined up with the time & location (3 day travel), on Nov 11:
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
User posted image: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
In fact, I have yet to find an EQ >6.5 that did not happen during the arrival of a SW "CHEP". This goes back for a long as the data is available (several yrs). If I don't get my data back from my hard drive, I will have to do this over, so expect a delay in posting these results.
regards,
T.Roc
ps. It seems that the IMG posting rules have changed, or I am just having some strange problem. Does anyone know?
Just wanted to post an update.
I had been working on a few things, some "case studies" of past events, and a post on the "changing shape & extent" of the magnetopause, and another, more extensive one on "the various modes of coupling SW energy to Earth, combined with the several types and their relative positions in reconnection events".
The last 3 months of research have been very productive, turning up a stack of supporting papers, and links to many, very good websites covering this vast, and exciting new area of Physics. There was much more pertaining to my hypothesis than I had imagined, or hoped for.
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Needless to say, my "sails are slack" right now. This data was largely in "brainstorm mode", meaning that most of it had only been gone through in "over-view", and not sorted or organized. This means trying to duplicate it will be very hard, if not exactly impossible. I am hopeful that my browser history will be one of the things that is salvaged, as well as a couple or Word docs, that had my initial rough drafts, and reference list. The case studies can be re-done, but with a great deal of time (again).
On EQ activity, >,= 5 mag:
Jan 26 = 1
Jan 27 = 0
Jan 28 = 3
Jan 29 = 2
This is a very low period. I do not recall seeing one this low (take with salt). The SW was correspondingly calm.
Given my comments on the Solar Cycles ( link to post ), this may have been the "eye of the storm". We are definitely "primed" for a 7 or better quake right now. There is SW activity arriving today, and for the next couple of days that should increase the activity. It could "trigger" the stored energy that I think has been occurring over the past several weeks. Statistically, I would say we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days. This is one of those "of course" statements, but combined with some good location & time forecasts, could make for a "valuable" prediction.
Also of interest: NASA/STEREO news shows a "Solar Tsunami" on there website ( LINK ).
QUOTE
One of the STEREO spacecraft (Ahead) caught an enourmous wave as it rippled across the most of the Sun (Dec. 7, 2007). While the visual effect is subtle when observed in at extreme UV wavelengths, (especially in any still image) there is nothing subtle about the roughly 500,000 miles it traverses at a speed of 500-1500 km/s in a just few hours or the amount of energy it carries. This event was likely triggered by a small flare and CME from Active Region 977. Scientists believe this is the most substantial wave of this type observed by STEREO.
(there is an 8 sec video at that link)
Given the SW speeds, as I have discussed previously, for "flare" type events, this energy would be traveling at a pace bringing it to Earth is 2 days.
2007 12 09 - South of the Fiji Islands - M 7.8
This was the largest EQ since this pair:
2007 09 12 - Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia - M 7.9
2007 09 12 - Southern Sumatra, Indonesia - M 8.4
In fairness, there was a 7.7 in Antofogasta, Chile, on Nov 14, 2008.
But, there was also CH lined up with the time & location (3 day travel), on Nov 11:
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
User posted image: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2007/11...0_n4euB_195.jpg
In fact, I have yet to find an EQ >6.5 that did not happen during the arrival of a SW "CHEP". This goes back for a long as the data is available (several yrs). If I don't get my data back from my hard drive, I will have to do this over, so expect a delay in posting these results.
regards,
T.Roc
ps. It seems that the IMG posting rules have changed, or I am just having some strange problem. Does anyone know?
You had 20 years of documents crashing, I had 2 years of documets destroyed from a hard disc surface deterioration on my pentium 3 667MHZ, bummer! I have a much more powerful computer now.
Troc,
Sorry to hear about your troubles. Data loss can be devastating.
Several days ago I noticed I couldn't post images, only links to images. I think this is a new policy in response to some recent posts that contained pornographic images. The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
Sorry to hear about your troubles. Data loss can be devastating.
Several days ago I noticed I couldn't post images, only links to images. I think this is a new policy in response to some recent posts that contained pornographic images. The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
QUOTE (TRoc+Feb 2 2008, 09:24 AM)
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
The drive is at a recovery service, and I had hoped to have it back this past week, but won't get it back until Monday. There are some files that have been recovered, but I don't know which.
Lord, man! For what it's worth, everybody learns that the hard way. I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary. I hope the data-recovery folks don't bend you over too badly!
Edit: As a matter of fact, I think I'll do a network wide backup this weekend, because... Just because.
QUOTE (TRoc+Feb 2 2008, 09:24 AM)
After 20 years of computing, I had, for the first time, "complete hard drive failure". This project was not backed up in any way, save for a few things that are on my laptop. This is a prime example of "learning the hard way". Ironically, I was just finishing copying files from the laptop, to the desktop computer, to back them up. The reverse process was to be next.
It seems to happen when people need everything they have to continue their research or keep track of contacts.
Any suggestions on the best back system to use?
I have seen web sites with data back up, however I wonder if a personal back up is better.
I have not backed up in 15 years, so I hope to learn before failing this class.
Hi all,
Thanks for your comments, and support.
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
barakn-
The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
Agreed. It seems that solutions/offers have been made for a "volunteer force"; I'm not sure why this is not looked at seriously. Having the ability to post pictures, diagrams, and even equations in some formats, is very helpful. To not have this is a huge step backwards.
regards,
T.Roc
Thanks for your comments, and support.
QUOTE
Sapo-
I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary.
I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary.
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Sapo- I have so many stacks of DVD backups laying around that it's scary. |
I used to think that those people were obsessive. I will not allow such a stereotype in the future. The real "kick myself" thing is, I had 2 drives available in that computer, and basically, never used the second one. Two drives (in the same computer) is not the ultimate in protection , but it would have done the job in this case.
rethinker, "Just say no to CRASH". Do it right now.
barakn-
The moderators are so slow to take bad stuff down that instead they're just not going to let anybody put anything up. Pretty lame, IMO.
Agreed. It seems that solutions/offers have been made for a "volunteer force"; I'm not sure why this is not looked at seriously. Having the ability to post pictures, diagrams, and even equations in some formats, is very helpful. To not have this is a huge step backwards.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
An update on EQ prediction:
6.9 2008/02/08 09:38:14 10.733 41.884 10 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
6.9 2008/02/14 10:09:23 36.646 21.833 29.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
These are like "teasers". Not exactly right, but enough to put you on the edge of your seat. If the weather-man says "80% chance of rain, it's going to rain!
(if he says "99%, it's probably already raining!)
Not to disappoint:
7.5 2008/02/20 08:08:32 2.751 95.966 34.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
While that prediction was mostly "statistical", my SEC postulate holds:
Each of these major quakes was preceded by an Solar CH / flare by a time that matches the SW speed for the period. Upon reconnection, in the ionosphere, this energy was coupled to the Earth in "anti-polar" regions (primarily equatorial), and produced "earth-quakes".
regards,
T.Roc
An update on EQ prediction:
QUOTE
TRoc Posted on Feb 2 2008, 11:24 AM -
..we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days..
..we have an 80% chance for a >7 in the next week or 2, and up to "99%" in the next 30 days..
6.9 2008/02/08 09:38:14 10.733 41.884 10 Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
6.9 2008/02/14 10:09:23 36.646 21.833 29.0 SOUTHERN GREECE
These are like "teasers". Not exactly right, but enough to put you on the edge of your seat. If the weather-man says "80% chance of rain, it's going to rain!
(if he says "99%, it's probably already raining!)
Not to disappoint:
7.5 2008/02/20 08:08:32 2.751 95.966 34.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
While that prediction was mostly "statistical", my SEC postulate holds:
Each of these major quakes was preceded by an Solar CH / flare by a time that matches the SW speed for the period. Upon reconnection, in the ionosphere, this energy was coupled to the Earth in "anti-polar" regions (primarily equatorial), and produced "earth-quakes".
regards,
T.Roc
some relevant news..
European Space Agency bulletin:
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
Upstream of the boundary, a stationary electrostatic wave, called a zonal flow, is excited by drift wave turbulence. Downstream, the drift waves are not in resonance with the zonal flow, so the zonal flow does not grow there. At the boundary itself, the action of the drift wave turbulence rips the zonal flow apart, causing individual zonal flow periods to move independently. This explains the origin of the solitary zonal flow structures observed by Cluster in regions of strong drift wave turbulence at the Earth's magnetopause boundary.
These "regions of strong drift wave turbulence" would be under my heading of "CHEPs", which continue the transfer of energy, which if resonantly couples with Telluric field lines, can induce EQ's (postulated). The typical crystalline structure of fault areas makes for probable location for this. The conditions in the IMF, especially the azimuth and polar angle, seem to have a strong role in dictating these locations, on the sunward side. It is hard to tell which is causing which, it is quite inter-related. The zonal flows "stack up", as shown above, and much of this energy goes past the Earth, and into the magnetotail; to contribute to dark side reconnections (and EQ's) a few days later. However, there is also significant reconnections going on the sunward side, as well as the dawn and dusk regions. The Auroras (pole regions) are the only "standard" phenomena associated with this right now, although this is changing fast, due to the unprecedented levels of new information being gathered.
regards,
T.Roc
European Space Agency bulletin:
QUOTE
Solitons found in the magnetopause
07 Mar 2008
For the first time, spontaneous formation of solitons in space, at the border of the Earth's magnetosphere called magnetopause, is reported and explained in a recent article published in Physical Review Letters. The combined observations made by the four satellites of the Cluster mission were found in good agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming earlier theoretical predictions of their existence.
"Cluster is the first mission in space able to compare natural phenomena such as solitons with theoretic models in much more detail than any other mission thanks to its unique capability of differentiating spatial from temporal variations. This result is one of the scientific highlights of the mission," comments Philippe Escoubet, Cluster and Double Star scientist of the European Space Agency.
07 Mar 2008
For the first time, spontaneous formation of solitons in space, at the border of the Earth's magnetosphere called magnetopause, is reported and explained in a recent article published in Physical Review Letters. The combined observations made by the four satellites of the Cluster mission were found in good agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming earlier theoretical predictions of their existence.
"Cluster is the first mission in space able to compare natural phenomena such as solitons with theoretic models in much more detail than any other mission thanks to its unique capability of differentiating spatial from temporal variations. This result is one of the scientific highlights of the mission," comments Philippe Escoubet, Cluster and Double Star scientist of the European Space Agency.
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Solitons found in the magnetopause 07 Mar 2008 For the first time, spontaneous formation of solitons in space, at the border of the Earth's magnetosphere called magnetopause, is reported and explained in a recent article published in Physical Review Letters. The combined observations made by the four satellites of the Cluster mission were found in good agreement with numerical simulations, thus confirming earlier theoretical predictions of their existence. "Cluster is the first mission in space able to compare natural phenomena such as solitons with theoretic models in much more detail than any other mission thanks to its unique capability of differentiating spatial from temporal variations. This result is one of the scientific highlights of the mission," comments Philippe Escoubet, Cluster and Double Star scientist of the European Space Agency. |
User posted image: User posted image
This movie shows a simulation of the electric field of an electrostatic zonal flow (red curve) at the Earth's magnetopause boundary (black curve: plasma density profile).
Upstream of the boundary, a stationary electrostatic wave, called a zonal flow, is excited by drift wave turbulence. Downstream, the drift waves are not in resonance with the zonal flow, so the zonal flow does not grow there. At the boundary itself, the action of the drift wave turbulence rips the zonal flow apart, causing individual zonal flow periods to move independently. This explains the origin of the solitary zonal flow structures observed by Cluster in regions of strong drift wave turbulence at the Earth's magnetopause boundary.
These "regions of strong drift wave turbulence" would be under my heading of "CHEPs", which continue the transfer of energy, which if resonantly couples with Telluric field lines, can induce EQ's (postulated). The typical crystalline structure of fault areas makes for probable location for this. The conditions in the IMF, especially the azimuth and polar angle, seem to have a strong role in dictating these locations, on the sunward side. It is hard to tell which is causing which, it is quite inter-related. The zonal flows "stack up", as shown above, and much of this energy goes past the Earth, and into the magnetotail; to contribute to dark side reconnections (and EQ's) a few days later. However, there is also significant reconnections going on the sunward side, as well as the dawn and dusk regions. The Auroras (pole regions) are the only "standard" phenomena associated with this right now, although this is changing fast, due to the unprecedented levels of new information being gathered.
regards,
T.Roc
We also have this occurring
[QUOTE]Solar activity is surging. Three large sunspots have materialized and at least one of them harbors energy for strong solar flares. An M2-class eruption on March 25th hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and emitted radio bursts audible in shortwave receivers on Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours[QUOTE]
from http://spaceweather.com/
and "Old Solar Cycle Returns" http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28...e.htm?list46072
[QUOTE]Solar activity is surging. Three large sunspots have materialized and at least one of them harbors energy for strong solar flares. An M2-class eruption on March 25th hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and emitted radio bursts audible in shortwave receivers on Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours[QUOTE]
from http://spaceweather.com/
and "Old Solar Cycle Returns" http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/28...e.htm?list46072
Solar tsunamis:
www.tcd.ie/Communications/news.php?headerID=861&vs_date=2008-4-1
www.tcd.ie/Communications/news.php?headerID=861&vs_date=2008-4-1
For TRoc & co. - http://www.physorg.com/news126448600.html
Who would have guessed that seismic activity could be interconnected?![/sarcasm]
TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data. I'd really like to see some solid solar-terrestrial-seismic connection equations or parameters that allow us the pleasure of improved earthquake forecasts. I'm working on understanding it as well, but as for how the magnetic and electric energy thrown into the atmosphere and mantle/core system generates acoustic waves (particularly focused/coherent acoustic waves necessary for major earthquakes), I am at somewhat of a loss... especially with the recent article detailing the anisotropy of the molecular structures in the core.
Who would have guessed that seismic activity could be interconnected?![/sarcasm]
TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data. I'd really like to see some solid solar-terrestrial-seismic connection equations or parameters that allow us the pleasure of improved earthquake forecasts. I'm working on understanding it as well, but as for how the magnetic and electric energy thrown into the atmosphere and mantle/core system generates acoustic waves (particularly focused/coherent acoustic waves necessary for major earthquakes), I am at somewhat of a loss... especially with the recent article detailing the anisotropy of the molecular structures in the core.
Hi all,
soundhertz,
Thanks for the links. I talked about that a little in am U's thread: < link >. There is definitely an overlap period of the separate cycles.
Strumpet,
Welcome to the Forum. (hope you're still around). Thanks for the info. I mentioned a similar, "fast forming" activity earlier in this thread, < link >, and saw another one the other day. I say "fast forming" because they are not long enough to track like a normal coronal hole (CH), or other phenomenon. They also leave as quickly as they came. I have not taken the time to search for the video segments of these events, but I'll bet they're out there. That would allow us to see exactly how long they lasted, and other details. The "one time" appearance that recently occurred is here: < link >.
From the above Stereo EUVI 195 2008 04-08 19:13 UTC photo, we have a good alignment with these EQ's:
5.1 2008/04/11 15:54:21 -20.317 168.862 72.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.9 2008/04/11 16:35:58 -20.444 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 2008/04/11 17:45:02 -20.336 168.806 10.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
as well as these corresponding higher latitude events, following the above:
5.7 2008/04/12 00:46:27 43.930 147.470 53.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/13 13:41:33 67.930 -167.504 11.4 BERING STRAIT
The 7.1 2008/04/12 00:30:12 -55.681 158.527 10.0 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION quake would line up with this photo, from the same date as the above photo: Stereo Ahead EUVI 171 2008-04-08 16:01 UTC.
It is worth noting, that in the first photo, this last CH is not visible, though it can be tracked by other photos. The "fast-transient" CH seems to have closed this other, normal CH during it's own formation. This might help explain the extra magnitude, from the more localized CHEP that "shuttering" would create. These types of anomalies show that video footage would be preferred to the (more available) photos that I normally use.
This SOHO EUVI 195, from 04-06, also seems to have this kind of opening/closing, at a rate that shows up when you compare the changes in other photos, near the same time: < link >
Compare to the ahead and behind photos, from this page: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2008/04/06/.
That leads to this EQ activity: (the whole >5 list from 04-09)
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 16:02:10 -20.402 169.023 26.4 VANUATU
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 15:31:19 -20.100 168.438 38.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 14:47:50 -19.998 168.888 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:21:20 -20.119 168.801 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:11:44 -20.127 168.833 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.2 2008/04/09 13:03:07 -20.171 168.837 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 7.3 2008/04/09 12:46:13 -20.091 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 11:23:40 -20.223 168.923 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.4 2008/04/09 11:13:20 -20.187 168.862 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
Now, THAT is a tight shot group!
So, maybe there is reason to believe that the extra solar activity at the "change" of the cycles leads to an increase in EQ activity. More localized energy, from a fast opening/closing of a CH.
regards,
T.Roc
soundhertz,
Thanks for the links. I talked about that a little in am U's thread: < link >. There is definitely an overlap period of the separate cycles.
Strumpet,
Welcome to the Forum. (hope you're still around). Thanks for the info. I mentioned a similar, "fast forming" activity earlier in this thread, < link >, and saw another one the other day. I say "fast forming" because they are not long enough to track like a normal coronal hole (CH), or other phenomenon. They also leave as quickly as they came. I have not taken the time to search for the video segments of these events, but I'll bet they're out there. That would allow us to see exactly how long they lasted, and other details. The "one time" appearance that recently occurred is here: < link >.
From the above Stereo EUVI 195 2008 04-08 19:13 UTC photo, we have a good alignment with these EQ's:
5.1 2008/04/11 15:54:21 -20.317 168.862 72.3 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.9 2008/04/11 16:35:58 -20.444 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
6.0 2008/04/11 17:45:02 -20.336 168.806 10.8 LOYALTY ISLANDS
as well as these corresponding higher latitude events, following the above:
5.7 2008/04/12 00:46:27 43.930 147.470 53.4 KURIL ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/13 13:41:33 67.930 -167.504 11.4 BERING STRAIT
The 7.1 2008/04/12 00:30:12 -55.681 158.527 10.0 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION quake would line up with this photo, from the same date as the above photo: Stereo Ahead EUVI 171 2008-04-08 16:01 UTC.
It is worth noting, that in the first photo, this last CH is not visible, though it can be tracked by other photos. The "fast-transient" CH seems to have closed this other, normal CH during it's own formation. This might help explain the extra magnitude, from the more localized CHEP that "shuttering" would create. These types of anomalies show that video footage would be preferred to the (more available) photos that I normally use.
This SOHO EUVI 195, from 04-06, also seems to have this kind of opening/closing, at a rate that shows up when you compare the changes in other photos, near the same time: < link >
Compare to the ahead and behind photos, from this page: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2008/04/06/.
That leads to this EQ activity: (the whole >5 list from 04-09)
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 16:02:10 -20.402 169.023 26.4 VANUATU
MAP 5.0 2008/04/09 15:31:19 -20.100 168.438 38.4 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 14:47:50 -19.998 168.888 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:21:20 -20.119 168.801 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.4 2008/04/09 14:11:44 -20.127 168.833 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.2 2008/04/09 13:03:07 -20.171 168.837 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 7.3 2008/04/09 12:46:13 -20.091 168.854 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.3 2008/04/09 11:23:40 -20.223 168.923 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 6.4 2008/04/09 11:13:20 -20.187 168.862 35.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
Now, THAT is a tight shot group!
So, maybe there is reason to believe that the extra solar activity at the "change" of the cycles leads to an increase in EQ activity. More localized energy, from a fast opening/closing of a CH.
regards,
T.Roc
Hi all,
I wanted to break up these posts, and answer am Unition separately. I have been meaning to post on this for about a week, but haven't had much spare time lately.
am_Unition Posted on Apr 7 2008, 11:31 PM
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php By: Oregon State University
NEWPORT, Ore. April 11, 2008 -- Scientists at Oregon State University's Hatfield Marine Science Center have recorded more than 600 earthquakes in the last 10 days off the central Oregon coast in an area not typically known for a high degree of seismic activity.
This earthquake "swarm" is unique, according to OSU marine geologist Robert Dziak, because it is occurring within the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate - away from the major, regional tectonic boundaries.
"In the 17 years we've been monitoring the ocean through hydrophone recordings, we've never seen a swarm of earthquakes in an area such as this," Dziak said. "We're not certain what it means.
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
This is the eighth such swarm over the past dozen years, Dziak said, and the first seven were likely because of volcanic activity on the Juan de Fuca ridge.
But this eighth swarm may be different.
"The fact that it's taking place in the middle of the plate, and not a boundary, is puzzling," Dziak admitted. "It's something worth keeping an eye on."
Some other swarms, in the same region mentioned:
Lake Tahoe swarm 2004
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
September 20: An M4.8 occurred this morning at 9:51 AM local time. Over 600 events have occurred in this swarm as of noon today.
I just want to know, "where is all this magma going"?
http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PRESS/yell_press.htm
Scientists once believed that an earthquake at one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. But that belief was shattered in 1992 when the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in California's Mojave Desert triggered a swarm of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone, as well as other jolts near Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Yucca Mountain, Nev.
The apparent triggering of the Yellowstone tremors by the Alaska quake "confirms what we are beginning to see worldwide - that earthquakes can be triggered by other earthquakes at great distances, more so than we had thought before," said Robert. B. Smith, a University of Utah professor of geology and geophysics and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
16 years ago, the old idea was "shattered"; why aren't we seeing more work done on these connections?
VOLCANOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF SACRAMENTO
(emphasis added)
Kilauea Volcano Erupts Explosively And Vents Noxious Gas
I wanted to break up these posts, and answer am Unition separately. I have been meaning to post on this for about a week, but haven't had much spare time lately.
am_Unition Posted on Apr 7 2008, 11:31 PM
QUOTE
TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data.
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| TRoc, I sincerely hope you recompile or recover your data. |
For now anyway, that is DOA.
The bright side to having to reconstruct those case studies, is that I had to search for all the links that I regularly use, and I found several new ones that are great! I will explain when I post a review, soon.
The other thing, is we have several things that have happened since my HD crash. I can't believe that it's already been more than a year since I last mentioned this, but our ETS (episodic tremor & slip), or "slow quake" is back in the NW USA (about every 14 months). These were only discovered around 2000, so everyone is excited to study them.
Since this is a new study, it's hard to know what to make of "anomalies"; after all, they might not be. However, based on the consistency of the last 5-6 years, I'd say we have a different result this time around. Here is a blog style web page, set up specifically for the people who were on site to study the ETS: http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/winter2008.html. Lots of links there, too.
These have normally lasted for about 2 weeks, but this time around, there were signs of the ETS from Jan, all the way until last week (04-07), and was more intermittent.
Lots of strange things, in roughly this same time period. I mentioned over a year ago, that the increasing pattern of EQ activity, in a large circular area of the NW states does not look good. Exactly what I mean by "not good" is beyond determining right now. About 2 years ago, when I was there, the ANSS map was averaging about 600 quakes on the US map (including Hawaii and Alaska, and extending for 1 week). Last year, about 700; and now I'm seeing 800 as an average. This is not due to any increase in detectors; the area has been well covered for a long time. But, just as ominous as the frequency increase, is the distinct circular pattern, from Nevada, up Utah into Wyoming/Montana (Yellowstone), and over NW Washington, and back down Oregon to Nevada.
Within this large circular are (besides rather unusual locations for EQ activity), we have the bulge in Yellowstone Park, and one in Oregon too. Both near known volcanic areas. We had a swarm of EQ's in Nevada, in Feb., with a 6.0 , and still active. http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/wells.html
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/plan...r_010807-2.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227930/
Now, we are having another swarm, this time offshore of S Oregon. http://yubanet.com/scitech/Latest-Earthqua...-Scientists.php By: Oregon State University
NEWPORT, Ore. April 11, 2008 -- Scientists at Oregon State University's Hatfield Marine Science Center have recorded more than 600 earthquakes in the last 10 days off the central Oregon coast in an area not typically known for a high degree of seismic activity.
This earthquake "swarm" is unique, according to OSU marine geologist Robert Dziak, because it is occurring within the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate - away from the major, regional tectonic boundaries.
"In the 17 years we've been monitoring the ocean through hydrophone recordings, we've never seen a swarm of earthquakes in an area such as this," Dziak said. "We're not certain what it means.
QUOTE
At least three of the earthquakes have been of a magnitude of 5.0 or higher, Dziak said, which also is unusual.
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| At least three of the earthquakes have been of a magnitude of 5.0 or higher, Dziak said, which also is unusual. |
Add another one, a 5.2 on 04-12.
This is the eighth such swarm over the past dozen years, Dziak said, and the first seven were likely because of volcanic activity on the Juan de Fuca ridge.
But this eighth swarm may be different.
"The fact that it's taking place in the middle of the plate, and not a boundary, is puzzling," Dziak admitted. "It's something worth keeping an eye on."
Some other swarms, in the same region mentioned:
Lake Tahoe swarm 2004
QUOTE
Magma moving deep below Lake Tahoe apparently triggered an unprecedented swarm of 1,600 tiny quakes during a seven-month period but they stopped in February and there's no cause for alarm, experts said Thursday.
"We've been watching earthquakes for 30 years in the Tahoe area and have never witnessed an earthquake swarm anything like this," said Ken Smith, a research seismologist for the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno.
"We've been watching earthquakes for 30 years in the Tahoe area and have never witnessed an earthquake swarm anything like this," said Ken Smith, a research seismologist for the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno.
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| Magma moving deep below Lake Tahoe apparently triggered an unprecedented swarm of 1,600 tiny quakes during a seven-month period but they stopped in February and there's no cause for alarm, experts said Thursday. "We've been watching earthquakes for 30 years in the Tahoe area and have never witnessed an earthquake swarm anything like this," said Ken Smith, a research seismologist for the Nevada Seismological Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno. |
Adobe Hills swarm 2004
September 20: An M4.8 occurred this morning at 9:51 AM local time. Over 600 events have occurred in this swarm as of noon today.
I just want to know, "where is all this magma going"?
http://www.seis.utah.edu/EQCENTER/PRESS/yell_press.htm
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November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming.
By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area.
There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California.
By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area.
There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California.
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| November 4, 2002 -- A major, magnitude-7.9 earthquake that rocked Alaska on Sunday apparently triggered scores of earthquakes some 2,000 miles away at Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. By 8:30 a.m. MST Monday Nov. 4 - about 17 hours after the Alaskan quake - more than 200 small earthquakes had been detected occurring in clusters throughout the Yellowstone area. There also are preliminary reports the Alaska quake may have triggered smaller tremors at The Geysers geothermal area in northern California. |
Scientists once believed that an earthquake at one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. But that belief was shattered in 1992 when the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in California's Mojave Desert triggered a swarm of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone, as well as other jolts near Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Yucca Mountain, Nev.
The apparent triggering of the Yellowstone tremors by the Alaska quake "confirms what we are beginning to see worldwide - that earthquakes can be triggered by other earthquakes at great distances, more so than we had thought before," said Robert. B. Smith, a University of Utah professor of geology and geophysics and coordinating scientist for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
16 years ago, the old idea was "shattered"; why aren't we seeing more work done on these connections?
VOLCANOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF SACRAMENTO
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"The Electric Volcano"
“Hawaii’s Ups and Downs”
Deformation measurements at Hawaiian volcanoes over the past several years have characterized a number of interesting behavioral patterns, several of which had not previously been recorded. In particular, GPS, tilt, and radar interferometry have proven quite useful for measuring surface displacements associated with magmatic and tectonic activity in Hawaii. These data streams have captured the transition from deflation to inflation of Mauna Loa volcano in 2002, and a 5-fold increase in inflation rates in mid-2004. Kilauea volcano, which deflated by over 1.5 meters at the summit between 1983 (the start of the current eruption) and 2002, began inflating at roughly the same time as Mauna Loa, perhaps suggesting an interaction of some sort between the two volcanoes. Two other periods of inflation at Kilauea during the current eruption have resulted in changes in the eruptive vent, so the current episode may lead to a similar change in activity. Deformation at Kilauea is punctuated by inflation-deflation transients that last hours to days and are usually associated with a surge in the output of lava at Pu`u`O`o. In addition, GPS measurements on the south flank of the volcano have recorded at least 4 aseismic slip events similar to those observed in Cascadia and other tectonically active plate margins. Future GPS and tiltmeter station installations should help with understanding these processes and are likely to detect still more currently unknown deformation patterns.
“Hawaii’s Ups and Downs”
Deformation measurements at Hawaiian volcanoes over the past several years have characterized a number of interesting behavioral patterns, several of which had not previously been recorded. In particular, GPS, tilt, and radar interferometry have proven quite useful for measuring surface displacements associated with magmatic and tectonic activity in Hawaii. These data streams have captured the transition from deflation to inflation of Mauna Loa volcano in 2002, and a 5-fold increase in inflation rates in mid-2004. Kilauea volcano, which deflated by over 1.5 meters at the summit between 1983 (the start of the current eruption) and 2002, began inflating at roughly the same time as Mauna Loa, perhaps suggesting an interaction of some sort between the two volcanoes. Two other periods of inflation at Kilauea during the current eruption have resulted in changes in the eruptive vent, so the current episode may lead to a similar change in activity. Deformation at Kilauea is punctuated by inflation-deflation transients that last hours to days and are usually associated with a surge in the output of lava at Pu`u`O`o. In addition, GPS measurements on the south flank of the volcano have recorded at least 4 aseismic slip events similar to those observed in Cascadia and other tectonically active plate margins. Future GPS and tiltmeter station installations should help with understanding these processes and are likely to detect still more currently unknown deformation patterns.
(emphasis added)
Kilauea Volcano Erupts Explosively And Vents Noxious Gas
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