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mtneuman
http://www.physorg.com/news3675.html

Will do.
Guest
Dang. If they just would have put this post up on the Venus boards a few million laugh.gif years ago.
lengould
Certainly relevant is this in Scientific American.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa...CA083414B7FFE9F

Adds some perspective. Certainly anyone who purchases insurance is more thoughtful than current US politicians.
WaterBreath
Also relevant: http://www.physorg.com/news3694.html

What "word" is it, exactly, that scientists should be spreading? Seems they can't even agree among themselves.
Matt
last I heard the word is we should stop making food and kill off half the population.

MattWeston
Blunt, Matt, very blunt.
lengould
How about everyone who voted republican last time? Good start? wink.gif

Waterbreath: re also relevant, I read that but don't even consider it worth refuting. It's certainly not science, having no controls for variation in climate except "the researchers think they chose a time period for volcano study when they guess the temperature should have stayed constant". ?? That's not research, thats definitely something else.
Matt
QUOTE
How about everyone who voted republican last time? Good start?


yeah it's a shame, I'm sure Kerry would have had all the world's problems solved by now. since he had a plan and all.

though in all seriousness. Kerry's problem was the same as the people shouting doom and gloom over the environment (funny they're kind of the same group) no one is offering an alternative. All they can do is say how wrong the Republicans are, how bad america is, how we're all killing the world. no one says how we're supposed to save it, and at the same time, they complain that the economy is in the toilet and there aren't enough jobs and that gas prices are too high, but if we did join Kyoto, there would be less jobs because everything would cost more and the economy would be worse. or if we raised taxes on the rich, then the rich wouldn't invest in all the new technology that could possibly find a solution to the whole problem.

If you want people to stop voting republican, then give us a valid alternative. I'm not crazy about bush, but I'm also not crazy enough to vote for Mrs Kerry(who is once again mrs heinz BTW) and her weather vain.

Not that my vote counts anyway, I live in Indiana.



QUOTE (->
QUOTE
How about everyone who voted republican last time? Good start?


yeah it's a shame, I'm sure Kerry would have had all the world's problems solved by now. since he had a plan and all.

though in all seriousness. Kerry's problem was the same as the people shouting doom and gloom over the environment (funny they're kind of the same group) no one is offering an alternative. All they can do is say how wrong the Republicans are, how bad america is, how we're all killing the world. no one says how we're supposed to save it, and at the same time, they complain that the economy is in the toilet and there aren't enough jobs and that gas prices are too high, but if we did join Kyoto, there would be less jobs because everything would cost more and the economy would be worse. or if we raised taxes on the rich, then the rich wouldn't invest in all the new technology that could possibly find a solution to the whole problem.

If you want people to stop voting republican, then give us a valid alternative. I'm not crazy about bush, but I'm also not crazy enough to vote for Mrs Kerry(who is once again mrs heinz BTW) and her weather vain.

Not that my vote counts anyway, I live in Indiana.



Blunt, Matt, very blunt


would you expect any less from me? wink.gif
Guest
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Then comes global warming if we are still here
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Prick
You forgot Paranoia?

Damn kids.
lengould
Quit whinging about the problems and start working on the solutions.

Re sources of hydrogen. If underground CO2 sequestration is worked out (sb no problem per recent tests in central Canada) then oxygen-blown IGCC coalfired electric generating stations become an almost free source of hydrogen during off-peak hours.

Work it out. The water-shift reaction used results in a stream of CO and H2 + impurities out of the gasifier. By separating out the CO and using it to fuel the generator, you get plenty of power for off-peak hours, leaving a collected stream of H2 + SOx + some others. By then liquifying the hydrogen (mechanical driven compressors, < 20% contained energy into compression / refrigeration of H2) allows simple separation of imurities by selective condensation, leaves you a large stream of very pure liquid hydrogen costing you only the incremental capital cost of the separation / liquifaction equipment plus the extra coal.

Too simple? Where's the problem? The problem is i) the simple addaptation of IC engines to burn liquid H2 (ask BMW for starters, though much better is possible) and ii) the huge plethora of thoughtless negativism

SB noted also that the liquid nitrogen required for the pre-refrigeration stage of the H2 liquifaction process is a natural by-product of the standard oxygen separation process already a pre-requisite for an oxy-blown gasifier, which itself should be mandated in oder to enable CO2 capture / sequestration.
And I happen to have in my archives a communication from Praxair confirming the cost of H2 liquifaction equipment at $222,222 per tpd liquid H2. Adding a fuel cost for the coal input to the gassifier and for turbines for the liquifaction process of $55 / ton ($.5 / mmbtu for mine mouth coal in Wyoming? sounds a bit high) and 4 tons Chart Industries LH2 tanks per tpd at $21,600/ton results in liquid H2 at site / onto railcars costing $714.39 per (metric) ton or $.72 / kg, which is equivalent to gasoline costing $.72 / US Gallon. And if anyone cared, I'm sure for a volume order Chart Industries would apply themselves to development of carbon fiber reinforced liquid H2 transportation tanks which would eliminate your concerns re. weight of transport equipment. The rail locomotives should then be fueled by evaporating a small amount of the H2, which keeps the balance cold.

Problems? US should be building these like crazy, starting several years ago, instead of "researching" solid membrane H2 separation, a wasted effort.

Also note that converting coal + water into H2 and CO2 in a dedicated facility (which BTW Praxair will install for you at $555,000/tpd hydrogen) is cheaper than skimming off-peak from the gasifier of an IGCC, though by using the IGCC's gassifier off-peak when electricity requirement is reduced MIGHT save some of the capital. Howerver I note that adding the cost of the gassifier / reactor and making it a dedicated facility only raises the cost of the hydrogen from $714.39 / ton to $727.76 / ton (gasoline equivalent $0.728/USgal v.s. $0.714/USgal), hardly worth considering.

When these numbers are readily available to anyone the least bit interested, I must conclude that the only reason a huge majority of people still refuse to acknowledge the need to switch from petroleum to hydrogen-as-energy-mediator based transportation infrastructure is pure obstinance.

Too bloody busy inventing stupid chopper motorcycles I guess.

QUOTE
no one is offering an alternative. All they can do is say how wrong the Republicans are, how bad america is, how we're all killing the world. no one says how we're supposed to save it,
tongue.gif
Matt
now I could be wrong about this, but I seem to recall that 1 kg of H2 does not have the same amount of energy as a Gallon of Gas, plus it takes up a lot more room than a gallon of Gas does.

then there's the question of how do you keep H2 liquid, and in a car for a week at a time? how big of a tank will you need to store enough H2 to drive the car for 300 miles?

how do you get the H2 from the pump at the station to the car? can we still self serve? what will leaking H2 into the atmosphere do to the environment?

there's more questions I'm sure. I really don't think Hydrogen is the answer everyone is looking for. I think the answer is two fold, possibly more.

First, build lots of thermo depolymerization plants and turn the bulk of our garbage into nice clean oil. this solves 3 problems right off the bat. 1. less garbage 2. less dependece on foriegn oil and 3, no new carbon being added to the environment, since we're just using carbon that's already in the cycle.

Second, build lots of pebble bed nuclear power plants.

so the oil runs our cars, and the nuke plants run our houses and offices. we can also increase solar and wind and wave. huge barges off the coasts with wind mills on them would do wonders. Also I'd like them to start researching Microwave transmission of power again. so we can put up giant solar collectors in orbit and beam the power to the ground, and Giant solar farms on the moon.

this way we don't have to destroy our entire gas infrastructure, and we get a cleaner environment to boot.

lengould
http://planetforlife.com/h2/h2fuelcell.html
HHV LHV Difference
Hydrogen 142 MJ/kg  120 MJ/kg 0.18
Nat Gas 38 MJ/kg  35 MJ/kg 0.08
Gasoline 35 MJ/kg  32 MJ/kg 0.11

LHV gasoline 32 MJ/kg * 3.727272727 kg/US gal = 119.2727273 MJ/gal

Actually 1 kg H2 is a bit better than 1 gal gas.

All the rest is nonsense. BMW and Linde are already in process of building 400 liquid H2 auto fueling stations all over Europe. Their stations have a robot attendant to fill you up, you don't even leave your car. Using liquid H2, the auto range, though lower, is not a problem.

Mass density Energy density
H2 0.07 kg/litre 8.4 MJ/litre
Gasoline 3.73 kg/litre 119.36 MJ/litre

Note that LH2 is significantly more tank-effective than CNG, which all taxis in my area now use for fuel. Need better numbers? Get a hybrid. Using NREL's high-pressure carbon fiber liquid H2 tank design the storage retention time is not an issue. (eg by Chart Indust. stated NER% for their smallest tank, a 13 kg auto tank should only need to have used/evaporated 70 grams per day starting on the third day. Plan ahead. Or better yet, use a Plug Hybrid based on ACPropulsion's inverters and grid-connect the vehicle if it's going to sit idle for any time period. It can then start up once or twice a day to generate power back into the grid to cool down the tank, and use the grid to charge some small Li-ion batteries needed for regen braking anyway, to reduce further it's fuel requirements with off-peak windpower or those pebble beds etc..)

Bio-diesel is a curiosity, but should be reserved for aircraft (which can't arbitrarily shorten re-fueling stops or be quickly re-designed for LH2). Once those are done, then is there any left? And please carefully eval. the gabage burning idea, way too many heavy metals which can't reasonably be separated except from flue gases in large centralized incinerators.

Meanwhile quit blocking, dump your Texaco shares, and get going. You did ask. (see quote my prior post)
Matt
I have to say that site didn't do much to convince me.

all I got out of it is that fuel cells are only about 35% efficient and they are expensive.

so I'll have to pay more for a car, and probably higher maintanence for it.

and this doesn't tell me how much H2 I'll need for my 300 mile trip, it's easy to tell people to plan ahead, but people don't and frankly they don't want too. you'll never convince any large group of people to accept something that's going to make them work harder or be inconvienced. People in general just don't care.

so if you want to really sell this, it either has to be cheaper, which I don't think it would be. the initial cost of the car will be more, and I'm betting the cost of the fuel will be more. It has to be easier, which it could be, but I'm betting it won't be. the cost of maintaining those robot pumpers is going to jack up the price and will probably take longer to pump, which is bad when you didn't plan ahead and have to fill up before work and you over slept and you're running late.

though that is something I'd like to learn more about.

How much is H2 going to cost at the pump? how will it be made, how much can we make, how much will it take to give a comparable range to the car. how much will the cars cost. and how much will it cost to keep the car. how much re training will he have to have and how long will it be before we have enough competent mechanics to meet demand? and how much more are we going to have to pay them?



lengould
Sheeh Mat. I wasn't advocating fuel cells. IMHO thats dumb when current IC engine/generator technology is so well developed and competetively efficient. Why would you have to "pay more for a car?" (other than gouging based on eg. low volume production crap etc)

Your 300 mile trip "should" take you 5 hours. You teling me you're never going to stop for coffee or washroom in 5 hours? GMAB. That's like selftorture. Skip it and refuel at 150.

Otherwise, no technical reason it needs to cost more, although to be e-friendly you still SHOULD pony up another $3,000 for a hybrid drive. However, I won't advocate forcing you to if you switch to ZE hydrogen fuel. wink.gif
Matt
the car will cost more because an IC engine that can burn Hydrogen has to be made better and have stricter quality control. which also means that it will be harder to work on.

As for the 5 hour trip, it's not hard for me to drive 5 hours straight, but more importantly I'm concerned with the 10 30 minute trips I have to take each week, I hate stopping for gas on the way. It is because on those days I have to get up earlier or leave earlier and I really don't like doing it, so the fewer times I have to fill up the better.

right now I fill up about once a week or so. probably closer to every 8 days give or take.
lengould
QUOTE (Matt+Apr 13 2005, 09:38 PM)
the car will cost more because an IC engine that can burn Hydrogen has to be made better and have stricter quality control. which also means that it will be harder to work on.

As for the 5 hour trip, it's not hard for me to drive 5 hours straight, but more importantly I'm concerned with the 10 30 minute trips I have to take each week, I hate stopping for gas on the way. It is because on those days I have to get up earlier or leave earlier and I really don't like doing it, so the fewer times I have to fill up the better.

right now I fill up about once a week or so. probably closer to every 8 days give or take.

i) IC engine technology to burn hydrogen is absolutely no problem, the only reason it's not widely available is lack of fuel stations. Using direct injection and (optionally) compression ignition the package is no more complex that a diesel and a lot more sporty. Ford and BMW are also doing manifold injection, but I think that's dumb (due to significant volume of H2 gas, reduces charge size) No other problem really.

ii) If you'd bite on the hybrid cost, you should be able to get a "plug hybrid" where your daily 30 min. trips are entirely fueled (depending your driving habits) by battery charges (electricity, even retail at your house, is/SB cheaper than gasoline and more eco-friendly) Doesn't dip into the H2 tank more than just what's needed to keep it cold. Ideal. Eg. ACPropulsion in california have a system where the car's drive electronic inverter and motor also act as charger/transformer. You can plug it into anything from a 15A 110 extension cord to a 240V range type receptacle, 60hz or 50hz, it'll charge happily, automatically and (if enough power available) in just a few minutes, limited by battery temp. Google "TZero" or "Fetish"

http://www.venturi.fr/us/fetish/specs/specs.php3

They're marketing it now as a pure electric, but makes a perfect hybrid system as well. Too bad the big's can't figure stuff like this out.
adoucette
H2 as a fuel, either compressed or liquified simply doesn't make economical sense. It might be viable for certain users and certain places, but it won't be because it is cheap, it will be because it doesn't pollute the air where the vehicle operates. The actual locations where this would be justified are almost zero.

We have no source of H2 that is energy efficient. The cheapest way to produce it now is by using CH4 as the stock, but its more efficient to use the CH4 directly and in most cases existing gasoline motors can be modified to do so. H2 systems, not nearly so easy of a mod. The second way to make H2 is via electrolysis, but this consumes more energy then the H2 it produces contains (otherwise we could build a perpetual motion machine with ease). Since all forms of fuel based electrical energy production are quite inefficient (i.e the resulting electricity has much less energy then the fuel burned to create it) this results in a double whammy, burn X amount of fuel energy to create about .35 X electricity. Use .35 X electricity to get .25 X worth of H2 energy. Use more energy to compress H2 to liquid form yielding about .20 X of energy in the liquid H2. Transport, store and loose via required venting of the liquid H2 to get about a net .15 X worth of the energy you put into it. Using H2 in an internal combustion engine will yield higher, but still pitiful, efficieny factors, resulting in a net usable energy of less then 10% of the energy you put into it. Going to Nuclear, Hydro or renewable sources doesn't particularly help since if vast amounts of energy are diverted from these sources for H2 production one would have to replace them with other forms of electrical production.
The only viable method of producing H2 in our future is from Coal. We do this today but our most advanced methods of doing so are not economical to use the resultant H2 as a fuel. Bush's energy budget includes ~ $1.2 Billion per year to support the Hydrogen from Coal initiative. The primary goal is to produce H2 from Coal by 2015 at a demonstration plant operating at 60% efficiency and sequestering the large amounts of CO2 produced in the process. (even if the vilification of CO2 ends, as it undoubtably will, the cost of sequestering the CO2 is only a minor part of the total cost)
Unfortunately to keep to this time table requires break throughs in material science in at least 7 different processes, all of which have proven to be tough nuts to crack. You can track this program via the DOE's web site, but it is already behind schedule and likely to fall further behind what is obviously a very optimistic schedule. To give an idea of the complexity involved the DOE funded the first four projects last year for a total of $350 million, they are nearing contract completion on a $100 million "fueling pilot" and last month they funded 32 new projects for a total of $62 million. Thus well over a year into the project about 1/2 of the first year R/D budget has been awarded. The problem is one can't legislate technology and even throwing tons of money at a problem doesn't guarantee a timely or cost effective solution.

But Ok, say we magically solved the cost/purity issues associated with H2 production:

H2 is still a bitch. Being that it is the smallest atom it tends to get out of anything you put it in, as virtually all other materials have molecular gaps that it will eventually squeeze past. Its high level of reactivity also has the nasty effect of modifing the materials used to contain it. Compressed H2 is an explosion just waiting to happen. Liquid H2 adds the "Terminator 2" aspect of instantly freezing almost everything it touches to the point of extreme brittleness.

Which would you want to get doused by in a car wreck, gasoline or Liquid H2? At least with gasoline if an ignition source doesn't turn you into a torch all you need is a good shower, but liquid H2 will create a full thickness "burn" on any skin it touches. Even if that doesn't kill you outright since your body temp would plummet, the massive volume of H2 gas boiling off would physically displace all the air in the vicinity causing you to suffocate within minutes, because while H2 at room temp is significantly lighter then air, H2 at just above its boiling point, is quite dense.

Which is why the primary goal of the current H2 from Coal project is primarily based on gaseous H2 production and delivery (with the interesting plan to use the existing NG pipeline systems to deliver a CH4/H2 mix and then separate the H2 at the intermediate destination).

H2 might be in our fuel future, but if I was a betting man I think that we will end up with Coal being turned into Methanol and used in Fuel cells and/or Coal turned into CH4 and used directly. Of course BOTH will require that we all come to our senses and realize that the PRIMARY food supply for virtually all life forms on the planet is CO2 and that a CO2 rich world results in a greener, cleaner and substantially LESS harsh world then one which is starving for CO2.

If anyone cared to look at the FACTS, the world has been on a CO2 diet for a LONG time and it wasn't until the world went on this CO2 diet that the long series of Ice Ages began. For the last 500 MILLION years there have been only two sustained periods of continental glaciation. Both of them exactly coincide with sustained drops in atmospheric CO2 to levels below 250 ppm. The most recent Ice Age began about 40 million years ago and from which we have not yet fully exited (hence the continued existence of tropical glaciers), the previous glaciation was began 320 million years ago and lasted 50 million years. In the 230 million years that separated these massive Ice Ages, the planets temp averaged about 3C warmer then today while the CO2 levels were a minimum of 3 times greater then today and as much as 8 times today's level, ranging from a low of around 1,100 ppm to a high of almost 3,000 ppm. In the previous warm spell, lasting over 300 million years, the CO2 levels were higher still, averaging a whopping 5,000 ppm, but even at 40 times today's CO2 level global temperatures averaged a mere 4C warmer then today. (So much for the IPCC's prediction of warming beyond 4C in the next century, what pure BS!)

But why go back so far, just look at the climatic see-saw we have been on for the last 425,000 years. The first 25,000 years of this period was a warm spell with CO2 levels around 300 ppm. Then CO2 fell below 250 and stayed that way for 150 million years as the glaciers once more rolled down upon the land as temperatures plummeted to an average of 5C colder then today. Then CO2 again rose above 300 ppm and for about 20,000 years this time the glaciers retreated. Temps rose to 3C above today. But then once again CO2 levels fell, this time more abruptly and to lower levels and so did the temps. For another 160 milliion year period the planet froze at temps
thezman
hydrogen on demand

http://www.cleanwatts.com/default.asp

z
Guest
lengould, Matt is absolutely right, all of the time. Listen to him, and learn. This is just a shot in the air, but do you live in Europe?? Thought so.
adoucette
Continuation of last post

For another 160 million year period the planet froze at temps that now averaged closer to 5C colder then today. But the next rise in CO2 did not break 280 ppm and at a peak of about 270 ppm yielded a much shorter and less intense warm spell, it lasted less then 5,000 years and barely got 2C warmer then today before once again falling into an even longer cold period lasting 40 million years more then the previous one and including a 50,000 year stretch where the temps were a bone chilling 7C colder and stayed that way until once again the CO2 levels zoomed over the magic 250 ppm level, yielding a relatively long 25,000 year warm spell that included sustained periods where the temps were 3C warmer then today. But alas, like before, this was not to last and once again as CO2 levels fell below 250 ppm so did the temps, this last and most recent Ice Age would last until about 18,000 years ago when it would enter a 7,000 year period of gradual warming, glacial retreat accompanied by the ever present gradual rising of CO2 levels. When the CO2 levels finally climbed above 250 ppm, 11,000 years ago the world saw the first warm temperatures in over 200,000 years. While all the previous warm periods had seen at least 2C and two of them had fairly long periods of 3C warmth, the current warm period has not quite made it to the 2C mark.

Our ability to measure the annual temperature changes over this last 11,000 year period far exceeds our ability to measure them for the previous warm periods, so comparison is not possible, but what is clear is that the early part of this current warm period was warmer then it is today, and not withstanding the last century has been on a slow gradual downward trend the entire time. Even the fairly recent Medieval Warm period barely breaks the 1C mark and almost all of the last 4,000 years has been colder then the average temperatures of this warm period, with a particularly cold, 500 year period, that we call the "Little Ice Age". The LIA only came to an end about 150 years ago and we have been clawing back to a warm period ever since. Then things got dicey for a 30 year period in the middle of the last century when temps again fell sharply, and almost everyone who could spell climate forecasted the impending Ice Age, backing up their predictions with graphs, charts, proxies and model results. Of course their predictions of doom were quickly forgotten as the falling temps reversed and became the current warming cycle. But sadly, they didn't forget all the attention and research bucks thrown at them the last time they cried "the ice is coming, the ice is coming", and so it only took a part of one generation for, in many cases the SAME scientists, to once more spin an infinitesimally short climatic trend into another prediction of doom and gloom. Sure enough, once again they trotted out their charts, graphs, proxy temperatures and new improved models, renamed GCMs to sound more professional, and said we need megabucks to study this and figure out a path to man's salvation, lest we roast in a hell on earth or drown in a biblical flood. How convenient that they had that oh so trustworthy bunch at the UN, you know, the ones who managed the "Oil for Palaces & Bribes" program so well, to create a "Scientific" body to arrive at a "Concensus" on the issue. The fact that the political appointees to the IPCC would rewrite the science chapters after the scientists had agreed on the language, "to make it conform to the Summary for Policymakers" wasn't even thought of as self-serving. And so after those political mental giants had done so, they produced a report that said: that even though the earth has been going through these almost identical cycles for the past 500,000 years, the CURRENT warming is UNIQUE, it was excessive and was not because of natural variation but, lo and behold, was caused primarily by man's last 100 years of plowing the soil and burning the devil's own fossil fuels. The amazing fact is they could say this with a straight face when not one of them has a friggin clue as to what actually caused the preceding four interminable Ice Ages or the brief warm punctuation between them. Nor do they want anyone to point out that while CO2 tracks the warming/cooling phases it LAGS the changes by a significantly long time period. The record is quite clear on this, its NOT the CO2 that drives the global temperature, as it is the global temperature that drives the CO2 levels.

But why let facts spoil the party? The UN is here to help, and along with their periodic Climate Report they have a plan. Follow the plan and salvation is at hand. The plan of course first buys off those who drafted the plan by creating the biggest transfer of research funds in history to the climate boys who spun this tale. But scientists can't be trusted, so to keep everyone singing in tune, the grants are only doled out to those who are willing to join the "anthropological warming choir" and prove it by submitting research proposals that promise to look into either the causes of "Global Warming", the dire consequences it might cause or how it could be mitigated. Poof, within a decade, fleets of research vessels begin treks across the ocean, fleets of satellites are launched, bore holes are dug in ice, sea bottoms, lake bottoms, hell any bottom one can find, not to be outdone the Bio boys start researching every specie on the planet and reporting on its potential demise. Still one has to just laugh when a month after the ACIA report comes out, along with predictions of the imminent demise of the Polar Bear, the Canadian government ups the number of Polar bears the Inuit can kill by a whopping 20% because there are a few too many damn Polar bears. No one seems to notice that Polar bears aren't even an endangered species and we hunt well over 1,000 of them a year, just to keep the population in check.

The second leg of this plan is for the Choir members and Orchestrators to keep a STEADY supply of "research" spun into media loving stories of impending doom. Real handy to have a ready made supply of "peers" who are riding on the same gravy train to do so, thus every week or so we are assaulted by one more set of "mights", "coulds", "possiblies" and "likely tos" that are extracted from these ever growing diversity of studies, usually prior to the actual release of the study itself, and LO AND BEHOLD, the impact on "whatever" by the possible climate extremes are almost always based on the assumption that the world warms to the upper range of the most extreme IPCC scenario based GCM result. You know the one which predicts global warming that has not been seen since CO2 levels were 40 times what they are today. These are the same "100 year story lines" of global changes in economics, politics, energy use and population growth that produced such believable scenarios that even for the lowest emission scenarios, the IPCC predicts the average income of South Africans will have overtaken that of present day Americans by the end of the century. In fact the IPCC predicts that America's current per capita income will then have been surpassed not only by South Africa, but also by those industrial powerhouses: Algeria, Argentina, Libya, Turkey and North Korea.


The final leg of this plan is to devise a UN supervised Global Energy Tax structure to keep those big bad Earth haters in line. Of course its no surprise that the proposed "Tax Structure" is based on a percentage cut of energy use to below 1990 levels. Why, because the ONLY modern industrial country of any magnitude which has a guaranteed population growth of over 25% during this period is the United States. Of course, to be "fair" the major developing countries that either have similar population growth rates or also consume vast quantities of fossil fuel, i.e. China, India, Mexico and Brazil, are deemed "exempt". So even though they are the world's GREATEST POLLUTERS they are given a pass on the tax. So while the EU whines about how the US ignores its "global duty", no one wants to mention that the US remains the world's largest manufacturer, nor that a 8% reduction of energy use is hardly the same for countries which have population densities a factor greater then the US, import much of their basic food, have stagnant economies and either stable to falling populations. Why would France worry as it already gets about 80% of its electricity from Nuclear? Why would Germany, which gets three times as much electricity from Nuclear as the US does? Why would any of Western Europe worry when it gets 3 times the percent of electricity from Nuclear and 5 times the percent of electricity from Hydropower then the US does? Why would the countries around the North Sea worry, when their prevailing winds make wind power an attractive option, Denmark gets over 12% of its electricity from wind, the US, with more base plate installed wind power then ANY other country in the world, doesn't even get 1%.

So is it any real surprise that the ratification of the treaty would not require the US as a signer? No, although actually the Kyoto boy's didn't count on Australia’s defection, thought they were green. They are, but they aren't stupid. And then Russia held out until the EU made substantial economic concessions, then of course they signed, which everyone KNEW they would eventually do, because since their post breakup economic melt down, they don't even produce as much CO2 as their 2010 quota. Boy do they have CO2 tax credits to sell, which is handy because they seem hard pressed to make anything else the world wants to buy.

The fact is the US is an easy mark. Lots of the world hates us for both real and imagined causes. Failure to sign Kyoto is just one more reason to bash the US and particularly the guy the EU really can't stand, Bush. They of course ignore the fact that under Clinton, the US Senate voted almost 95-0 to NOT support a Kyoto treaty and voted 98-0 not to sign a Kyoto treaty if it didn't include the developing countries.

As it is, the Kyoto treaty is simply a way the rest of the world, via the cover of Global Peril and the legitimacy of the UN, is trying to rein in the US by hobbling its economy. If it was REALLY about GW, it would not exempt the countries that account for 1/3 of the world's population and it certainly would not exempt those countries that don't trust air they can't see.

Mark my words, the next phase will be for CO2 based "tariffs" that will be proposed to bring the recalcitrant US into line.

Arthur


adoucette
QUOTE (thezman+Apr 15 2005, 10:47 PM)
hydrogen on demand

http://www.cleanwatts.com/default.asp

z


z?
As in sleeping, boring, been there done that????

WTF

This company is a JOKE

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=ARGY.OB

Lets see they are -19 million in the hole, have never made a buck.
The two principals, a father/son team, while managing to lose $5 million last year still managed to pay themselves $250k

The ONLY people left associated with the company are Blaine Froats, Sean Froats, Jack Wasserman, Corbee Dutchburn and Lyle Goodis. Messrs: Denton, Jones and Evans resigned in May 2003 and Wilder resigned in 2002. Mr. Goodis and Mr. Dutchburn have resigned their executive positions with the Company but continue to act as consultants to the Company.

Why not, last year their expenses were:
400K admin
400K prof services
4.4 million Consulting
and a WHOPPING 30k for R&D

Yeah, they are going to bring something to market.

BS

If you had invested $100 anytime in the first half of 2003 you would have at most $50 left, but most likely less then $25.

The two principals own 154 million shares of the stock,
The next two largest owners own 300,000 shares AND THEY WERE GIVEN TO THEM BY the company.
There are NO large institutional investors and there are NO large mutual fund investors
and
EVERY ONE of the Insider trades has been to SELL.

Thanks for that hot stock tip.

Arthur

PS I've got some hot ocean front property in West Va for sale if you are interested. Just a few more meters sea level rise and instant shoreline right by your mountain side retreat.


Matt
QUOTE (Guest+Apr 15 2005, 11:09 PM)
lengould, Matt is absolutely right, all of the time. Listen to him, and learn. This is just a shot in the air, but do you live in Europe?? Thought so.

yeah, that's not going to help my ego problem.
Guest
QUOTE
I've got some hot ocean front property in West Va for sale if you are interested.
Actually, I've got some riverfront property in West Va, so don't joke about that. Other than blasting Z, I wholeheartedly agree with every word you said.
adoucette
QUOTE (Matt+Apr 13 2005, 09:38 PM)
the car will cost more because an IC engine that can burn Hydrogen has to be made better and have stricter quality control. which also means that it will be harder to work on.



True enough Matt, but there is also a significant difference between a car fueled with Liquid H2 vs. Compressed H2.
The Liquid H2 has significant complexity involving a tank with very high insulation efficiency, to keep the H2 cold, even when sitting out in the Las Vegas sun all day. (No small problem as the heat WANTS to get in and will do so via every pathway), thus making the design of the H2 storage system quite complex. The ideal design would require reasonable cost, use a minimal amount of space, have minimal weight (not including H2). These factors would be in relation to the existing fuel systems. i.e. the ideal solution would not cost, weigh or take up more room then a gasoline system. The H2 system though must also have an extremely high insulation factor. Unfortunately a number of these requirements tend to be contradictory. For example, the ideal insulation is a vacuum, but the cost and weight to build a large vacuum bottle is fairly high and the result, particularly chilled to - is somewhat fragile. Likewise a ceramic insulation is fairly low cost but doesn't have the required strength. A steel pressure tank has the strength but it is much more expensive, heavy and a poor insulator. If you add an insulation layer then the size can become an issue. Like I said, this is a more complex problem then it sounds.
If you solve the storage problem you still have to deal with the similarly complex issue of how to turn liquid H2 to a gas at continuously variable rates, ranging from quite low while creeping along in rush hour traffic to very high when passing on a high speed interstate with a heavily loaded vehicle. The materials problem stems from the fact that the temps at the start of the process are only 20K (- 259 C) degrees, while the operational temperature of the gas needs to be raised 270 C. The easiest way to deal with this is to add an electric heater in the gas delivery system to deal with low gas pressure during high demand, but this is inefficient, the more efficient process would use waste heat from the engine to accomplish this, but alas at start up there is no waste heat, thus the need for dual systems. An electric system that gives way to a waste heat system as well as regulation circuits/controls for each that work in unison. The distribution system has to also deal with a liquid that expands to roughly 800 times its volume as it is raised to operational temperature. Again, a staggering level of complexity not found in a gas system. The valve will also likely be involved in the significantly more complex refueling system. First, the refueling system CAN'T leak, because it would be leaking liquid H2, which would spoil your entire day if it spilled on your hand as you refueled. This not only requires a positive coupling system but in order to meet safety requirement is likely to have to be robotic or remote controlled. Then, because the tank can have relatively high pressure and because it is essentially a closed system, refueling a nearly empty tank would cause excessive internal pressure without a pump/suck dual piping system. You don't exactly pump the H2 fuel in so much as you suck the high pressure H2 gas out causing the liquid H2, under low pressure, to flow into the tank. It will require a positive shut off system and since people are paying for this fuel the system has to be able to quantify how much fuel is sucked out vs. pumped in, with the in and out flows as widely varying densities.

Of course one should not forget that for LH2 to be useful as a general fuel then a whole bunch of filling stations would have to be built. Interestingly it seems less costly to build H2 specific stations then to retrofit existing stations (existing tanks are buried under infrastructure making addition of new tanks/plumbing problematic and costly) a recent "pro H2" study was conducted using the EU15 nations as the subject. A full H2 fleet would require approx 100,000 new filling stations to get reasonably near the existing level of availability. A minimum of 15,000 filling stations would be needed to begin acceptance and provide a minimal level of coverage. Still at this level one would have to carefully plan most longer trips. At 60,000 filling stations, the density of stations is such that about half the people would find them adequately sited. Now the problem is, the cost of a H2 filling station is projected to be 3 times the cost of the existing stations (which have to be phased out, many at a loss) the cost is of a H2 station is ~ 4 million Euros (at today’s rate), thus the SOCIETY cost to get the program at least rolling would be 60 Billion Euros (or roughly 160 Euros for every person in the EU15, OUCH), but don't stop there, to get to the 60,000 level of stations would cost ~ 640 Euros per person. If one assumes roughly 200 million H2 vehicles replace the existing stock this would come to 1,200 E per vehicle. Now that's quite a fuel tax and barely over half way to full rollout. By the way, if they started building these stations in 2010 it would take well past 2030 to get the 60,000 stations built and then even if they worked at a breakneck pace since it would require completing ~ 10 new H2 stations every single work day for the entire 20 year period.

Then there is the venting problem, no matter HOW good the insulation, the system has to allow for venting of what amounts to an explosive gas. Again no small trick since even state of the art liquid H2 tanks vent around 3% of their VOLUME per day (not contents, volume) and this loss is not confined to the vehicle but the "gas station" as well. The venting plays havoc with users wanting to park their car in enclosed garages attached to their houses as a H2/O2 mix can present a real safety issue. Can you say KABOOM? This is a REAL issue for domestic vehicles. Current demonstration models are simply not parked inside while fueled. Sure we could do away with this convenience we've grown used to, but if so it certainly won't speed adoption. Don't underestimate the seriousness of this issue as H2 has an extremely wide flammability range. It will burn at levels as low as 4% all the way to 74% when mixed with air. Then just to frost the cake, H2/O2 require a very small amount of energy to ignite (remember Hindenburg?). If any H2 and O2 mix at almost any ratio it can and will ignite via the tiniest static discharge. This requires all vehicles and fuel handlers to be positively grounded prior to any refueling operation. Likewise the H2/O2 can be ignited by the tiny electrical spark given off by virtually any electrical switch when it makes or breaks contact unless the switch is hermetically sealed. Of course any open flames such as pilot lights or even a very hot object, anything over 1,000 F (like most radiant elements) will do it. Hell, just break a regular light bulb in a H2/O2 mixture and the latent heat of the filament will do the trick. Worse, if it does ignite it will either explode, if a sufficient size mixture is present, turning a garage into a large "cherry bomb" or it will burn with a virtually invisible flame, making the detection and suppression of an H2 fire surprisingly difficult because if a H2 fire is extinguished without stopping the flow of H2 gas, an explosive mixture will rapidly form and quickly create a more serious hazard than the fire itself. Ignition of the mixture is almost guaranteed since the H2 fire (which burns extremely hot) will likely create surfaces that are sufficiently hot enough to insure re-ignition. Because of this fact the accepted fire fighting practice is to try to prevent the fire from spreading while at the same time allowing it to burn until the hydrogen is gone. Bet it won't be a lot of fun watching your snazzy new Fireball 2000 immolate itself due to a refueling accident.

Now all of this is bad enough, but the extreme cold of liquid H2 will also freeze the gases in the air. While O2 will freeze at a temp 70C higher then H2 liquefies at, Nitrogen will not, so absolute care has to be taken to insure no part of the system that is between the temp of liquid N2 and Liquid O2 is open to the ambient air. If so the piping will quickly be coated with frozen O2, or drip liquid O2. In either case a serious risk of creating a local increase in the ambient O2 level will exist, which just increases all the hazards mentioned earlier.

Besides the inherent hazard issue that venting causes it also provides a real disincentive for the multi-car family, where one car is used significantly less then the other. Say one car is only driven on weekends, in that case over 1/2 the H2 fuel would be vented each month. That H2 better be cheap because a LOT of it is destined to be wasted unless the venting problem can be solved (NASA never figured out how to do it). This issue gets even more complicated because if a tank goes to zero pressure it MUST be purged with an inert gas (typically Nitrogen) prior to the refueling step. There is no way to prevent a tank from going to zero pressure so this detection/purging has to be part of the automated refueling process. But wait; is it even safe to refuel a zero pressure system? What if the zero pressure is caused by a puncture or large leak? YIKES, there is a good chance that you would have to have your car inspected and pressure tested before you could refuel it in this condition.


Now we can finally get past the fueling problem to the actual combustion engine.
BMW created the latest tiny fleet of BMW 7 series H2 cars about 5 years ago (this was the 5th model of an H2 car produced by BMW, each one based on the luxury 7 series at the time). They store their H2 fuel in highly insulated, 37-gallon, trunk-mounted tanks. The tanks are quite expensive and have 70 layers of aluminum and fiberglass sheets to provide insulation. Although the car has a 37-gallon tank it has a range of but 220 miles. (The engine is not optimized for H2 however, it also runs on gasoline, sort of a necessity given that there is only 1 filling station in Munich and as mentioned earlier, it is entirely robotic for safety reasons. BMW estimate closer to a 300 mile range is possible given an H2 only engine.) The good news is that the H2 engines appear to show less wear then conventional IC engines (no soot to degrade oil), but still the few number of vehicles, their low total mileage and their pampering makes this a little hard to translate to what real world conditions will yield. Still, while one expects the engines of H2 vehicles to perform and last longer then conventional engines, it is not expected that this longevity will be that significant considering all the other expensive subsystems which will likely force the vehicle's retirement, even if the engine is still working.

It is interesting that almost nothing can be found out about this fleet that wasn't written in 2000/2001. I guess they are still running, but BMW certainly isn't saying much about them, which brings me to the conclusion of this long saga.

I think that liquid H2 fueled autos have a snowball's chance in hell of ever getting past the demonstration phase. The technical issues are substantial, the safety issues are substantial, and the cost of resolving both of these makes the vehicles quite expensive and for that extra expense you get a car which burns a fuel that costs more then even today's expensive gasoline and that assumes some major material break throughs occur that significantly reduce the cost of H2 production. Even with a massive H2 fuel tank the car has limited range and worse it has many fewer refueling locations. Initial operations, for probably the first 5 years would have to be confined either to specific cities or high traffic routes. If the engine is designed to handle both gas and H2, which helps to get around the refueling problems then you get an engine which doesn't really run well on either fuel (from an economy or power perspective), requires two fuel tanks and finally even in the quite densely populated areas of the EU 15 it could easily take 20 years or more to get even 1/2 the H2 refueling stations that are considered necessary built and that would still require a 1,200 Euro "tax" if every EU auto was switched to H2, or a 3,600 EU tax if just 1/3 were. That and the fact that a string of of really spectacular or tragic accidents could easily get the whole thing shelved or regulated out of existance.

If H2 is going to power the autos of the near future it will almost certainly be via fuel cells, and then it would most likely be with CH4 as the fuel stock that the H2 is created from. But that's another discussion.

Arthur

adoucette
QUOTE (Guest+Apr 16 2005, 05:17 AM)
QUOTE
I've got some hot ocean front property in West Va for sale if you are interested.
Actually, I've got some riverfront property in West Va, so don't joke about that. Other than blasting Z, I wholeheartedly agree with every word you said.


Talk about missing the obvious, as you might have noticed I'm new to this forum,

I read his name as a name,

and the "z" in his response as possibly shorthand for "snoozing" or as I said possibly a "been there, done that" kind of jab. mad.gif

Your reference to him as Z made me realize that his "name" was a three word concatenation and the z was just his signature. laugh.gif

My apologies to Z. I totally misunderstood the end of your post. biggrin.gif

On the other hand, I would still advise Z to read their SEC filings before making any large investments. cool.gif

Arthur
lengould
QUOTE (Adoucette Posted on Apr 16 2005+ 12:49 AM)
We have no source of H2 that is energy efficient. The cheapest way to produce it now is by using CH4 as the stock, but its more efficient to use the CH4 directly and in most cases existing gasoline motors can be modified to do so.


Man, just determined to be wrong all the time, A. Your post of Apr 16 2005, 12:49 AM contains at least three "urban legends" which are false but heaviliy promoted for a variety of obscure reasons.

i) CH4 / natural gas is not the cheapest source of hydrogen, coal is. And it's a LOT cheaper done properly, putting out liquid hydrogen at US$0.74 / gal gasoline equivalent before CO2 sequestration (v.s. CH4 at $6.60/gal), which to me suggests sequestration should be required.

ii) When the final product is liquid hydrogen (cost basis used above), absolutely no impurities make it through the liquifaction process, which is one of the best reasons to require it, besides fuel density.

QUOTE
our most advanced methods of doing so are not economical to use the resultant H2 as a fuel.


iii) wrong, eg. the huge BOC plant built in Toledo's output is already entirely "used as fuel". Their only mistake is spending tons of money to then attach the hydrogen molecules to fossil carbons to make gasoline. Dumb.

Perhaps you should call Praxair in Texas, who will happily come to your site and install / operate a coal-to-liquid-hydrogen plant on above terms. Or how about BOC?
http://www.eyeforenergy.com/news.asp?id=378
"BOC has announced plans to build a massive hydrogen and utilities complex in Toledo, Ohio, to serve both the BP and Sunoco refineries nearby. The complex will dwarf both of the plants announced recently by Air Products, with a capacity of more than 120 million standard cubic feet per day. BOC said it plans to invest more than $100 million in the plant. "

This plant is cheaper per tpd than the Praxair basis plant I used in above calculations.

Course that wouldn't fit with your predetermined position against anything anybody thinks is beneficial to the environment or world stability, would it? Voted republican lately? tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif
lengould
QUOTE (Guest+Apr 15 2005, 11:09 PM)
lengould, Matt is absolutely right, all of the time.  Listen to him, and learn.  This is just a shot in the air, but do you live in Europe??  Thought so.

Nope. you're wrong cool.gif
lengould
QUOTE (Guest+Apr 16 2005, 05:17 AM)
QUOTE
I've got some hot ocean front property in West Va for sale if you are interested.
Actually, I've got some riverfront property in West Va, so don't joke about that. Other than blasting Z, I wholeheartedly agree with every word you said.

WV may be a LITTLE too far/high to make a good long-term investment in oceanfront property, but give it a few hundred years. eg. if the main antartic ice cap were to start rapidly moving it has a potential to raise ocean levels by 65+ meters (thats 213.4 feet for any americans). Where does that leave the beachfront? Certainly a better bet than anywhere in Florida.
lengould
QUOTE (Arthur+)
The distribution system has to also deal with a liquid that expands to roughly 800 times its volume as it is raised to operational temperature. Again, a staggering level of complexity not found in a gas system.


Man arthur, your really full of myths. Gotta call MythBusters soon. The obvious solution is to use the volumetric expansion to pressurise a common rail direct injection system. Eliminates the equivalent costly and breakdown-prone rail pumps required for gasoline direct injection. (Lack of lubrication in pumps is main reason gasoline direct injection isn't used now)

And BTW, Linde is currently in process of building the first 400 H2 fueling stations across Europe now. That's a significant counter-statement to your mythology.

Pretty much ditto balance your posts.
adoucette
QUOTE (lengould+Apr 16 2005, 09:28 AM)
QUOTE (Arthur+)
The distribution system has to also deal with a liquid that expands to roughly 800 times its volume as it is raised to operational temperature. Again, a staggering level of complexity not found in a gas system.


Man arthur, your really full of myths. Gotta call MythBusters soon. The obvious solution is to use the volumetric expansion to pressurise a common rail direct injection system. Eliminates the equivalent costly and breakdown-prone rail pumps required for gasoline direct injection. (Lack of lubrication in pumps is main reason gasoline direct injection isn't used now)

And BTW, Linde is currently in process of building the first 400 H2 fueling stations across Europe now. That's a significant counter-statement to your mythology.

Pretty much ditto balance your posts.

Lengold,

Mythbusters?

A) I didn't say you couldn't build a H2 injector just that it is more complex going from a frigid liquid that expands 800 times in volume as it is raised over 200 d C.
I have it from fairly good sources that this has been problematic, as is the precise control of the H2/Air mixture to prevent copious amounts of NOx. Current solutions force engines to run on overly lean mixtures which drop power output. Better mixtures overload the Cat Converters. The other solution is via Supercharging, but that has other negative issues, particularly related to engine responsiveness and overall drivability. While gasoline injectors might have been a bitch to invent (I wouldn't know), they have been perfected and in my experience typically last a decade or more and aren't that expensive to replace when they do fail.

cool.gif Apparently Linde isn't building 400 H2 fueling stations.

C) It would appear that Linde may not build ANY H2 fueling stations, at least on their own dime.

While the President of Linde made a big publicity splash at the "International Hydrogen Day" last Feb in Berlin, it was clear that he may have has one too many glasses of wine or was possibly misquoted by the press.

Hydrogen Autobahn

Linde made it clear at Thursday’s event that the firm want to set up 40 hydrogen fuel stations along the Autobahn, making it possible to drive pollution-free between all the major cities in Germany. The fuel stations will form a 1800-kilometre "hydrogen ring," connecting Berlin, Munich, Stuttgart and Cologne with fuel stations every 50 kilometres.
Linde has dubbed the project "The European hydrogen Highway," and estimates that getting the filling stations up and running will cost a little under EUR 30 million.

Even though the schedule is not completely ironed out yet, the Linde company declared at "International hydrogen Day" that they wish to start development as soon as possible. They are also open to co-operation with similar projects in neighbouring countries.


Note that "the schedule is not completely ironed out" and its 40 stations, not 400.

But here is a reporter's coverage of a Linde spokesman two weeks later:

2005-03-16
The highway network proposed by Linde at the “International Hydrogen Day” in Berlin, to run between Berlin, Leipzig, Munich, Stuttgart and Cologne, is about 1800 km long altogether. .. Altogether some 35 new filling pumps, both for gaseous and low-temperature liquid hydrogen, would have to be built in order to create this world’s largest test course for hydrogen-powered vehicles. The required investment would be around EUR 30 million according to Linde’s calculations.

Today there are about 500 vehicles worldwide that use hydrogen as fuel;

Of the estimated 21 liquid hydrogen filling stations, 19 have been supplied by Linde.



So within two weeks we went from "Gonna Build" to "Proposed" and the number of stations dropped down to 35. Other words used seem to all imply this is some possible future, but not necessarily concrete event. Note the cost estimate is quite low for an H2 filling station, only about 800K Euros per station.


Two weeks later with the Senor Presidente clearly out of sight the following major speeh at a big H2 conference is given by the CEO of Linde:

21-March-2005

Linde CEO, Mr Belloni presented the results of analysis commissioned by Linde which shows that in a high uptake scenario, as many as 6.1 million hydrogen powered cars could be on Europe's roads by 2020, being served by [/B]2,800 filling stations, with total infrastructure costs of around 3.5 billion euro.

According to the same high uptake scenario, by 2030 there could be around 40 million hydrogen cars in Europe. 'With advances in technology, we would need a smaller network of hydrogen filling stations to service these vehicles, around 18,000 in total,' said Mr Belloni 'A city the size of Brussels, for example, could be serviced by around 50 filling stations.'

Mr Belloni said that the main focus in terms of infrastructure planning is currently on the filling stations.

said Mr Belloni. 'This vision can become a reality in Europe - we're calling on ministers and companies let us make a start together on building this infrastructure.'[B]


So one week later the head honcho at Linde doesn't even mention "The European Hydrogen Highway," that was all the rage at the start of the month. No, he first ups the projected cost of each station by 50% and then he makes what appears to be a fairly absurd claim that there could be 40 million hydrogen cars in Europe within 25 years. Then he makes what appears to be another absurd claim that some unmentioned advances in technology will allow the EU to reduce the minimum required stations needed for the acceptance of H2 from the projected 60,000 stations down to a piddling 18,000. Anyone here from Brussels, if so do you agree with Belloni that 50 stations would do it? But the kicker is he ends the speech by calling on Ministers and other companies to "start together" to build this infrastructure.

Obviously someone ran the numbers and the people at Linde saw the light, there is NO WAY their stockholders would/should allow them to squander close to $50 million Euros building a bunch of H2 filling stations when there are but 500 vehicles in the whole world that could possibly use them and not a single car company with announced plans for an impending production run.

So its not at all surprising that when you go to the Linde web site there is not ONE reference to "The European Hydrogen Highway".

If you have ANY info to the contrary please post, particularly your source for the 400 stations, since that would run close to 1 billion Euros.

The fact is we don't know how much an H2 car actually costs, as NOT ONE has ever been offered for sale to the public. Does it surprise me that BMW built 15 of them and trotted them around the world? Not at all. It WOULD surprise me if they announced an H2 vehicle as generally available before this decade is out though.

This is a quote from late last year from one of their senior engineers on the H2 project:

BMW engineer Albrecht Jungk warned it was unlikely that hydrogen enabled cars would be on the road any earlier than a decade from now: "Ten years is the earliest estimation because there is still a long way to go”, Jungk said. "It shouldn't be anytime soon."
Jungk added that since hydrogen was so expensive, it was making people opt between clean or cheap. "At the moment hydrogen is about four times more expensive than petrol," Jungk noted. "We cannot estimate whether the price will decrease in time since no one can predict the price of fuel."


There probably are factions at Linde that want to push Liq H2. They seem to be the clear leader in Liq H2 distribution and they are certainly on the H2 production side. But, if you take a look at the various H2 initiatives for transportation use in almost every one of the countries that have declared their goals in this area, like the US, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Australia, Denmark, India, they are ALL pursuing H2 powered fuel cells, not Liq H2. While some of these are doing research into Liq H2 systems, it is primarily for commercial uses (stationary power, buses etc) not your everyday auto. The primary reason is the higher cost for L H2 and the problem of L H2 for general distribution is formidable. Conversely gaseous CH4 or even H2 can use existing pipelines/technology.


Feel free to bust any more of my "Myths", as Samuel Clemens once said, "Its not what you don't know that will hurt you, its what you know that ain't so"

I try to research any subject I post about, just to make sure I have the facts/figures/dates correct, but like anyone else I still fall prey now and again to well disguised BS. None of us are perfect. I like these forums because with a decent number of intelligent members the half-life of erroneous information is about the same as the life expectancy of a May fly.

I don't have some hidden agenda. I voted for Bush last election though I didn't agree with quite a few of his positions. I might have voted for Kerry if I could have figured out his position on so many things. Next election I could easily vote either party, depends on who they run and what they stand for.

I would love for ANY economical replacement to gasoline to become available. I researched liq H2 and found that the only ones who actually claimed it was a near term possibility were quite misinformed, were the "true believer" types or ones with vested interests. I have no such vested interest; I earn my living designing computer software for Banks. My avocation is understanding technology and its impacts and implementation. As such I try to keep my posts factual.
Occasionally when I do get a tad emotional, as I tend to do around Global Warming, I will still try to stick to the facts, even if I sprinkle them with my editorial commentary.

Arthur
adoucette
QUOTE (lengould+Apr 16 2005, 08:43 AM)
QUOTE (Adoucette Posted on Apr 16 2005+ 12:49 AM)
We have no source of H2 that is energy efficient. The cheapest way to produce it now is by using CH4 as the stock, but its more efficient to use the CH4 directly and in most cases existing gasoline motors can be modified to do so.


Man, just determined to be wrong all the time, A. Your post of Apr 16 2005, 12:49 AM contains at least three "urban legends" which are false but heaviliy promoted for a variety of obscure reasons.

i) CH4 / natural gas is not the cheapest source of hydrogen, coal is. And it's a LOT cheaper done properly, putting out liquid hydrogen at US$0.74 / gal gasoline equivalent before CO2 sequestration (v.s. CH4 at $6.60/gal), which to me suggests sequestration should be required.

ii) When the final product is liquid hydrogen (cost basis used above), absolutely no impurities make it through the liquifaction process, which is one of the best reasons to require it, besides fuel density.


Lengould,

Ok, I'll bite.

What is your source for such figures that COAL is the cheapest way to produce H2?

I'll refer you to this document for starters:

http://www4.nationalacademies.org/news.nsf...32?OpenDocument

Currently hydrogen is produced in large quantities at reasonable cost for industrial purposes by breaking down natural gas into hydrogen and carbon dioxide.

other sources:

About half of worldwide hydrogen production is used to produce ammonia-based fertilizers and most of the rest is used in oil refineries. 48% of hydrogen is produced from natural gas, 30% is from oil, and 18% is from coal. Electrolysis for about 4%, because electrolysis only makes sense when the cost of electricity is lower than the cost of the hydrocarbon fuel that could produce that electricity.

NEI
At present, nearly 95 percent of all hydrogen production is through steam reforming of natural gas, a non-nuclear process. The heat driving the reaction comes from burning part of the natural gas itself, which generates CO2. This hydrogen is used to manufacture ammonia-based fertilizers and to enhance the yield of refined petroleum products such as gasoline from low-grade crude oil. The second method is through electrolysis of water. The third method is the direct “splitting” of the water molecule into hydrogen and oxygen through a high temperature thermochemical process. A temperature range of 700 to 900 degrees Centigrade is required, and the chemical reagents providing the chemical reaction remain within the cycle and are not emitted


or

Hydrogen Association
Today, 95% of the hydrogen produced in the U.S., roughly 9 million tons per year, uses a thermal process with natural gas as the feedstock. This process, called steam methane reformation (SMR). To a lesser degree, the U.S. also produces hydrogen electro-chemically from water when higher purity hydrogen is needed (See Fig. 2). The
process, called electrolysis, passes electricity through water in an ionic transfer device to separate water into its hydrogen and oxygen parts.
Renewable technologies, such as wind turbines, can generate electricity to produce hydrogen from electrolysis with zero greenhouse gas emissions. In France, an abundance of nuclear power makes electrolysis a logical, and their most common, method for producing hydrogen.


or

Nearly all hydrogen in use today is, itself, being "produced" by stripping hydrogen from natural gas through steam reformation of methane. There is no technical advantage to reforming methane in preference to electrolysis of water, there is only a price advantage of about a factor of two. Today, natural gas is trading with a floor price of about 5 USDollars/MBtu. That price will need to rise permanently above 9 USD/MBtu before methane reformation will quantitatively yield the hydrogen supply market to electrolysis using electricity costing 4 ¢/kWh (all figures based on 2004 valuations). Less-expensive off-peak electricity may find limited opportunity in hydrogen production if the price of natural gas approaches the break point. The natural gas industry, itself, does not think the recent runup in natural gas prices represents a continuing trend or that 9 USD/MBtu (2004) will be approached through its present planning period of two decades.




Seems any mention of coal and H2 is as an also ran, or for specialized cases where coal is dirt cheap and CH4 is expensive.

While I can see that if the liquification provides for purification that would be an advantage because one of the big problems has been getting H2 pure enough to not foul the fuel cell membranes, but that begs the question, if the problem was as simple as you say, why wouldn't they simply liquify to purify, as opposed to doing all this research trying to get a more pure output from the existing process?

I suspect there is more to it then that.

Yes, the liquid has higher energy density, but then it leaks away and has a lot of other nasty traits.
Bottom line, you don't mess around with Liq H2 unless you KNOW what you are doing. It can hurt you in a whole bunch of ways and in a hurry.

Sure, it stays in the tank, no basic problem, but I've been around technology too long to think that when the MASSES start using it, and the shade tree mechanics start playing with it, that it won't get a whole lot more exciting.

From all I can tell neither compressed or liquid H2 seem to be good candidates for general use as an automotive fuel. I know they can work, but can they be made safe, reliable, affordable and energy efficient. Big questions, few good answers, yet.

Still, I'm not against the research and the trials. We're an ingenious bunch and have solved other difficult problems, so I don't discount it EVER working, I just don't think it will be our NEXT automotive fuel source. Initially, at least, it would seem to make much better sense for Trucks, Buses, Heavy machinery, Stationary power sources etc. Places where you have professional operators and size and distribution is less of an issue.

Arthur




adoucette
QUOTE (lengould+Apr 16 2005, 08:43 AM)
QUOTE (Adoucette Posted on Apr 16 2005+ 12:49 AM)
We have no source of H2 that is energy efficient. The cheapest way to produce it now is by using CH4 as the stock, but its more efficient to use the CH4 directly and in most cases existing gasoline motors can be modified to do so.


Man, just determined to be wrong all the time, A. Your post of Apr 16 2005, 12:49 AM contains at least three "urban legends" which are false but heaviliy promoted for a variety of obscure reasons.


QUOTE
our most advanced methods of doing so are not economical to use the resultant H2 as a fuel.


iii) wrong, eg. the huge BOC plant built in Toledo's output is already entirely "used as fuel". Their only mistake is spending tons of money to then attach the hydrogen molecules to fossil carbons to make gasoline. Dumb.

Perhaps you should call Praxair in Texas, who will happily come to your site and install / operate a coal-to-liquid-hydrogen plant on above terms. Or how about BOC?
http://www.eyeforenergy.com/news.asp?id=378
"BOC has announced plans to build a massive hydrogen and utilities complex in Toledo, Ohio, to serve both the BP and Sunoco refineries nearby. The complex will dwarf both of the plants announced recently by Air Products, with a capacity of more than 120 million standard cubic feet per day. BOC said it plans to invest more than $100 million in the plant. "

This plant is cheaper per tpd than the Praxair basis plant I used in above calculations.

Course that wouldn't fit with your predetermined position against anything anybody thinks is beneficial to the environment or world stability, would it? Voted republican lately? tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif


Lengould,

Surely you jest.

Clearly the post was in response to the use of H2 as a MOBILE fuel source.
The discussion was about cars and use of liq H2.

You bring up a friggin refinery!
laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

To claim the H2 from the BOC plant is used as "fuel" is silly. as you point out its used to MAKE fuel.
Its not dumb either, I bet Sonoco and BOC and Linde are making a decent profit as the feedstock for the H2 production comes from the waste gases from the refinery (which is why the BOC plant is on the refinery site)
and it produces more H2 then the plant could possibly use so the rest goes into their H2 pipeline to be sold to other users.
Efficient I'd say.

Oh, by the way, the BOC plant doesn't use coal.

Couldn't find anything specific on the Praxair plants, but if they have got one that gets H2 out of coal cheaper then deriving H2 from Natural Gas, then they are a decade or more ahead of the DOE's plan to get economical H2 from Coal. Funny thing though, they are a partner with the DOE FutureGen program that is specifically targeted towards resolving the MANY outstanding issues that the DOE, at least, thinks need to be resolved before this is a reality.

Those dummies.

Why don't you email the DOE, they might send you a huge finders fee, since they are planning on spending over 1 billion to make the above Coal to H2 ann economic reality, and you've already found someone who can do it today.

Yahoo.

But of course if you go to Praxair's site they have this to say:

Praxair's on-site system designs are based on a full range of technologies, including steam methane reforming, partial oxidation gasification and autothermal reforming. To produce hydrogen or synthesis gas, these units react natural gas or hydrocarbons.

Now of course coal is a hydrocarbon, but clearly they have put natural gas/methane at the head of the list.

And I guess others suffer from the same "urban legend" that I do:
Or, maybe the price of Natural gas has gone up so high that coal now makes more economic sense then NG. I don't track the markets, but IF this is the case it is a VERY RECENT change. And IF this is the case, it iss not that H2 from COAL has become suddenly affordable, only that H2 from CH4 has become even less so.
My point, that we can't deliver affordable H2 to the PUMP (Well to Wheels) starting with Coal as the feedstock, is NOT at all affected by fluctuations in NG prices.


Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)

Steam methane reforming (SMR) is the most common and least expensive method of producing hydrogen − almost 48% of the world’s hydrogen is produced from SMR. SMR can be applied to hydrocarbons such as ethane and naphtha, but heavier feedstocks cannot be used because they may
contain impurities and the feed to the reformer must be a vapor. Other processes, such as partial oxidation (POX), are more efficient with higher hydrocarbons. There is a significant economy-of-scale for these systems; capital costs represent 32-48% of large hydrogen plants, but more than 60% of the costs for smaller plants. Hydrogen prices from this process range from $5-8/Gigajoule (GJ).

Coal Gasification
Hydrogen production from coal gasification is a well-established commercial technology, but is only competitive with SMR where oil and/or natural gas are expensive. Three primary types of gasifiers are used: fixed bed, fluidized bed, and entrained flow.


Now to your last digs.

I voted Rep but I don't agree with a lot of the Rep platform. I don't think the Dems know what they believe in though. I think I can deal with someone who does something they believe in a lot better then someone who doesn't seem to know or care.

Most people I talk to think Bush supports Nuclear PPs and that Kerry
is opposed to NPPs, mainly because when Kerry talks about energy
independence he never mentions NPPs and he has been vocal in his opposition
to Yucca Mt., but if you dig on Kerry's Web site, because its not mentioned
in any of the plans he proposes for "energy independence", you will find
this buried in an article on Yucca Mtn: "Kerry and Edwards believe nuclear
power can play an essential role in providing affordable energy while
reducing the risk of climate change;"
Its clear that both candidates support Nuclear power, just that Bush is a
more open about it.

As to Kyoto, while it is clear that Bush is against it, the Kerry doctrine
is handled as deftly as a magician's slight of hand.
From the Kerry Web Site there are all of these statements which either say
or imply that Kerry backs the Kyoto protocol:

Interview with Chris Heinz: "He is not the type to run away from Kyoto"

Interview with Theresa Heinz:
"She is equally dismayed at Bush's public statements, from his pronouncement that the Kyoto Protocol on global warming was "dead on arrival" to his skepticism of scientific evidence on global warming. "As president, you have to have some sophistication in speech, if not in policy," she said. "But to say the science is still out is absurd," she added. "People who don't know science like to doubt and vilify
scientists."

From the position papers:
He strongly advocated for U.S. participation in
the Kyoto accords and other international environmental initiatives, and
personally participated in many major world environmental summits, including
conferences at Rio de Janiero, Kyoto and the Hague.

From "What Leading Voices have to say about John Kerry": by Environmental
Director/Mass.
" Kerry's been a consistent environmentalist. He strongly opposed Bush's efforts to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling and backed the Kyoto Protocols"

From a statement by the League of Conservation Voters:
"From getting America back into the game in the fight against global warming to..."

Unattributed quote from Time mag;
"Whether it be for his home state - cleaning up Boston Harbor, protecting the drinking water of Cape Cod, taking on corporate polluters - or the nation - ANWR, Kyoto, CAFE standards and much more - John has stepped forward to lead."

Statement by John P. DeVillars, Mass Secretary of the Environment:
"When Bill Clinton needed support on tough and politically difficult issues like
climate change, the one person we could always count on was John Kerry. He
came to every round of negotiations over the Kyoto Protocol all around the
world and was a strong voice for action. He was always out-numbered by
corporate lobbyists and opponents of environmental progress, but he never
backed down. He not only has vision, he has guts."

From an article from The Press Democrat (Sept 18, 04) included in the Kerry
site: "Kerry promises to respond to the threat of global warming - endorsing
the Kyoto Protocol,"

But in the only statement that I could find on the entire Web site by
Kerry/Edwards on their Kyoto position was from the article that explains
their plan for "Clean Coal":

John Kerry and John Edwards believe that the Kyoto Protocol is not the
answer. The near-term emission reductions it would require of the United States are infeasible, while the long-term obligations imposed on all nations are too little to solve the problem.
Unlike the current Administration, John Kerry and John Edwards will offer an alternative to the Kyoto process that leads the world toward a more equitable and effective answer, while preserving coal miners' jobs.


Now, in my book I'll take someone I trust, even if I don't totally agree with them, , over someone who I don't trust, no matter what they SAY.

The above Kerry Web site is simply deceitful.
It is carefully crafted to have OTHERS say that Kerry is a Kyoto supporter. Thus he doesn't actually lie,
but then you get to the speech he delivered in a coal mining town and you get a totally different Kerry.
But its his web site and he should KNOW what it is saying, besides the Pro Kyoto pieces are quite easy to find, thus he SHOULD have clarifed his position or removed those misleading statements.
You don't get a lot of chances to get true insight into a candidate, but this little trip through his web site made up my mind.



What predetermined position????

Why the heck do you think I did all this research? To find things that agreed with some apriori knowledge?

I started out with zip knowledge, thus no opinion. The posts are a result of a lot of research.

I am very much for the environment and world stability.

What have I posted that would indicate otherwise?

My stance on GW?

If so, bring it on, GW is the biggest sham ever foisted upon the world.

I cited dates, temps, ppms, trends, research etc etc and will gladly provide REAMS of supporting data, but after 7 years of THOROUGHLY researching this issue, reading the scientific papers, discussing it endlessly the conclusion remains the same, we are being hoodwinked by politicians and scientists willing to distort the facts to keep their personal gravy train going.

Arthur
lengould
On Jan 25, 2005 I contacted Praxair regarding fuel reforming plants for H2 production. On Jan 31, an engineer from there spent an hour on the phone clarifying issues regarding H2 production. The key to the water shift reaction is the carbon. not the hydrogen in Methane. Coal works just as well, requiring only a little more fuel.

Also would point out

"From the early 19th century until the 1940s almost all fuel gas distributed for residential or commercial use in the United States was produced by the gasification of coal or coke." http://www.zetatalk.com/energy/tengy11a.htm

A modern example of coal-to-producer gas is the Texaco gassifier used at Polk River Florida, http://www.netl.doe.gov/cctc/resources/pdf...Final080904.pdf
"The raw syngas consists primarily of H2, CO, H2O, and CO2, with smaller amounts of H2S, HCl, COS, CH4, Ar, NH3, and N2." Only requirement is to then either separate the CO (in the liquifier) and use it to fuel the turbines direct driving the liquifaction compressors which is not exactly rocket science, or to generate electricity for same. Further on "After moisture has been removed, the heating value of the syngas is about 250 Btu/scf, which accounts for 70 to 75 percent of the heating value of the original fuel." and "Indications are that many new domestic gasification projects will be refinery- based, utilizing petroleum coke and other low-cost refinery by-products to produce power, steam, hydrogen , and chemicals for the refinery and additional power for internal use or export. The TECO CCT project has developed data to permit evaluation of these applications through a petroleum coke test program at the Polk facility."

=========================================

Re: H2 v.s. gasoline injection in Internal Combustion engines. That "well-developed gasoline technology" you speak of is manifold injection (very low pressures) and I already stated that H2 doesn't work well there. Refer Cummins, Ford and BMW, or any of several foolish professors who've tried it. The intake valves don't close fast enough to allow useful manifold mixing of H2 and air safely at reasonable power levels, and the fuel gas volume displaces too much air in the charge. The solution, as Cummins is doing, is Direct Injection (as I stated) to the combustion chamber after the intake valve is closed. is also being researched for gasoline for many efficiency benefits, but is a problem because gasoline doesn't lubricate the very high pressure pumps required for cumbustion chamber injection, as does diesel. However, liquid hydrogen pumped to reasonable pressures first, or trapped in a pair of cycle chambers, will provide all the required pressure just by heating it. 8<]
And that allows use of simple gasoline-type engine technology, rather than the heavy diesel engine technology eg. Cummins, since you CAN use spark ignition, rather than compression ignition as in diesels. As I said, already working on direct CYLINDER injection for gasoline to increase efficiency/ power-to-weight/ reduce pollution. ditto H2 +++

BTW, you want a conversion for H2 direct injection of gasoline engines, call me I'll sell you my patent. No engine mods except electronics and adding second fuel system plus custom spark plug injectors. Any vehicle --> dual fuel (H2 or CNG) / gasoline.

=========================================

Sorry the data on Linde H2 fuel stations may have been reversed recent. However, you're WAY too negative on prospects. Get with the program.
adoucette
QUOTE
On Jan 25, 2005 I contacted Praxair regarding fuel reforming plants for H2 production.  On Jan 31, an engineer from there spent an hour on the phone clarifying issues regarding H2 production.  The key to the water shift reaction is the carbon. not the hydrogen in Methane.  Coal works just as well, requiring only a little more fuel. 


Do I understand you correctly? You knew that the Praxair plant you referred to didn't use coal but you passed it off as if it did?

QUOTE (->
QUOTE
On Jan 25, 2005 I contacted Praxair regarding fuel reforming plants for H2 production.  On Jan 31, an engineer from there spent an hour on the phone clarifying issues regarding H2 production.  The key to the water shift reaction is the carbon. not the hydrogen in Methane.  Coal works just as well, requiring only a little more fuel. 


Do I understand you correctly? You knew that the Praxair plant you referred to didn't use coal but you passed it off as if it did?

"From the early 19th century until the 1940s almost all fuel gas distributed for residential or commercial use in the United States was produced by the gasification of coal or coke."  http://www.zetatalk.com/energy/tengy11a.htm


So what? Prior to that it was Whale oil. We quit gasification of coal because Natural gas became available and was a less expensive. Now of course that could reverse if NG prices climb high enough. But what is the point of this? We can't produce Liq H2 at competitive prices today using NG. If NG rises so that it is cheaper to get H2 from Coal, that means that hydrocarbon generated H2 is even more expensive. H2 only has a chance if A - a carbon tax is imposed and B - gas prices continue to rise.

In any comparison of prices remember that gas prices at the pump include on average $0.62 taxes (Fed, State & Sales) as well as distribution costs and profits. I've seen way too many H2 to Gasoline comparisons where H2 production costs per gal equiv. are compared to prices at the pump. I've yet to see a good analysis of the H2 cost structure from production through distribution, but I'm guessing that the distribution costs will be somewhat higher then for gasoline.

QUOTE
A modern example of coal-to-producer gas is the Texaco gassifier used at Polk River Florida, http://www.netl.doe.gov/cctc/resources/pdf...Final080904.pdf
"The raw syngas consists primarily of H2, CO, H2O, and CO2, with smaller amounts of H2S, HCl, COS, CH4, Ar, NH3, and N2."  Only requirement is to then either separate the CO (in the liquifier) and use it to fuel the turbines direct driving the liquifaction compressors which is not exactly rocket science, or to generate electricity for same.  Further on "After moisture has been removed, the heating value of the syngas is about 250 Btu/scf, which accounts for 70 to 75 percent of the heating value of the original fuel." and "Indications are that many new domestic gasification projects will be refinery- based, utilizing petroleum coke and other low-cost refinery by-products to produce power, steam, hydrogen , and chemicals for the refinery and additional power for internal use or export. The TECO CCT project has developed data to permit evaluation of these applications through a petroleum coke test program at the Polk facility."



Yes, but this is not how you would go about producing H2 from coal. Sure H2 is a component of the output, in fact it is the most significant fuel output, but a plant that wants to output H2 from coal uses a different process.

The reason we are going this way is so we can "burn" coal cleanly. By going through the synfuel conversion we extract about 70% of the energy that was in the coal to begin with, but we can almost totally eliminate heavy metals and sulfur from the flue and the plant can be set up so that CO2 can be extracted and sequestered to keep the GW hand wringers happy.

Still the plant is only a demonstration plant.

But keep in mind that the average US Nuclear plant and existing Coal plants are producing electricity at well under $0.04 kwh while according to this report:

The estimated cost of electricity is 5.9 cents/kWh on a current dollar Basis

Thus the problem. It is cleaner, but it is also >50% more expensive.

Ah!

So you hold a patent that is only valuable if H2 is used as a fuel source for automobiles? Guess that sort of blows any claim you might have to being unbiased towards H2 as a fuel source.

And to think, just a post or so ago you claimed that I had a "predetermined position".
biggrin.gif
No wonder you "doth protest too much"

So you think I am "way to negative", but that is just your opinion, and considering where you are coming from, I guess anyone who questions H2 as a fuel source would be negative.

I've tried to lay out the ISSUES, many of which you don't want to discuss,
well except for the one you have a patent on, and that is just ONE of a whole host of issues I raised.

Ok, I'll conceed that point, the fuel injection problem is licked.

Next issue?

There is no "program", there are very preliminary pilots that are exploring the day to day use of H2 as a fuel. There is no country that I am aware of where the GOVERNMENT of that country is ACTIVELY supporting a plan to convert to either liquid or compressed H2 as an automotive fuel. I know of no auto maker that has any PLANS to begin production of an H2 powered vehicle in the near term, while a number of them are producing hybrids now and actively working on bringing a fuel cell powered car to the market.



Arthur




lengould
QUOTE
If NG rises so that it is cheaper to get H2 from Coal, that means that hydrocarbon generated H2 is even more expensive.


An example of the complete absence of logic in you arguments. The cost of H2 is directly related to the cost of the carbon inputs to the water shift cycle, and coal is presently hugely cheaper than natural gas ever was. Only problem with using coal is the heavy load of impurities it carries, problem for gas users (refineries), NOT a problem if liquified H2 is your object.


QUOTE (->
QUOTE
If NG rises so that it is cheaper to get H2 from Coal, that means that hydrocarbon generated H2 is even more expensive.


An example of the complete absence of logic in you arguments. The cost of H2 is directly related to the cost of the carbon inputs to the water shift cycle, and coal is presently hugely cheaper than natural gas ever was. Only problem with using coal is the heavy load of impurities it carries, problem for gas users (refineries), NOT a problem if liquified H2 is your object.


There is no country that I am aware of where the GOVERNMENT of that country is ACTIVELY supporting a plan to convert to either liquid or compressed H2 as an automotive fuel . I know of no auto maker that has any PLANS to begin production of an H2 powered vehicle in the near term, while a number of them are producing hybrids now and actively working on bringing a fuel cell powered car to the market.


Soooo, ?? The "no governments" "fuel cell projects" would be using WHAT as fuel?

After several re-reads, I've decided you MEANT to say "no government is actively supporting development of H2 powered Internal Combustion engines for autos." Only true regarding currently well developed IC engines, which need no further development. However, you might evaluate the HCCI development project at Sandia titled "ADVANCED INTERNAL COMBUSTION ELECTRICAL GENERATOR" (Peter Van Blarigan Sandia National Laboratories Livermore,) at http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuel...dfs/30535bf.pdf which IMHO has the potential to obviate fuel cells before they're even developed to a reasonable useful life or cost of production.

( And allow me to anticipate you objection that they are CURRENTLY testing gasoline as fuel, not hydrogen. However, read the directory name in the link. The two fuels are so similar once vapourized that interchange is easy)

IMHO common IC engine combustion of H2 is so well proven (see Cummins, Ford, BMW, etc) that it no longer needs or deserves government support, and as a taxpayer I hope the governments agree.

As for attacking my statements on the basis that I am actively engaged in the development processes, where does that come from? Do you disbelieve every engineers statement regarding the safety of structures unless they've never built a structure? Never trust a rocket scientest's statements about rockets? Only consult amateur doctors? Or are you of the opinion that I should simply donate the results of my work to you like a good socialist? I see your point, but you should grant my early declaration of a "conflicting interest" as a sign of integrity, not as a lack of credibility.
adoucette
QUOTE (lengould+Apr 17 2005, 03:11 PM)



QUOTE (Adoucette+)
If NG rises so that it is cheaper to get H2 from Coal, that means that hydrocarbon generated H2 is even more expensive.


An example of the complete absence of logic in you arguments. The cost of H2 is directly related to the cost of the carbon inputs to the water shift cycle, and coal is presently hugely cheaper than natural gas ever was. Only problem with using coal is the heavy load of impurities it carries, problem for gas users (refineries), NOT a problem if liquified H2 is your object.


Then WHY is no one doing this? You've made this claim time and again, but try as I can, I've yet to find a plant producing liquid H2 using Coal as the feedstock.

I'll get back to you on your links. I don't doubt that H2 IC engines are not a big design challenge, what I wonder about is the cost. Yet to see any figures on that issue. When you add in the fuel system, venting, refueling and NOx handling I'm thinking that you will see a 10% or higher premium, but again, that's just my personal swag. In any case I don't see a H2 IC engine any cheaper then a gasoline engine. I also think that virtually all of the early years will have to be dual fuel, simply for utility sake.

QUOTE (lengould+Apr 17 2005, 03:11 PM)

As for attacking my statements on the basis that I am actively engaged in the development processes,  where does that come from?  Do you disbelieve every engineers statement regarding the safety of structures unless they've never built a structure?  ...  Or are you of the opinion that I should simply donate the results of my work to you like a good socialist?  I see your point, but you should grant my early declaration of a "conflicting interest" as a sign of integrity, not as a lack of credibility.


Actually I did think your declaration was a good sign. I'd of really been pissed to go round after round with you and then find that you had a vested interest in the success of H2.

Still, and not holding it against you, but clearly the success of H2 is in your own self interest. I've got nothing against that either and being that I've got only a few Socialist tendencies, I hope you make mega bucks and buy Bill Gate's house.

You clearly want H2 to succeed. It appears that you think it would be good for the country and possibly good for you as well, again go for it. What I objected to was your DIG about my apparent "pre-conceived" ideas and political leanings, and simply pointed out that you had a personal reason to support your view while mine was formed with no vested interested in the outcome of the research. I remain personally neutral. Clearly if we can make H2 affordable and safe and do it without polluting the planet, that has to be a good thing. I bring up the issues as a challenge and I'd love for you to show me why I'm wrong on each and every issue.
It really isn't personal to me. I don't "lose" if H2 wins.


From my ongoing research into Liquid H2 production costs:


A cost analysis of liquid H2 production, wholesale delivery and retail distribution using most favorable terms:

Assume water electrolysis at a large central electrical plant using off peak rates.
Assume electric power availability of 1000 megawatts, eight hours per 24 hour period, or 8 million kw-hrs.
Assume the cost of power is only $.005/kw-hr (just over the fuel cost at an efficient nuke)
Assume an electrolysis efficiency of 60%
Assume the facility uses an O2/CO2 combustion unit that can use all of the oxygen produced by electrolysis.

Thus 64 kw-hrs are required per kg of H2 (29 kw/lb)

Using 8,000,000 kw at 29 kw/lb of H2 produces 273,000 lbs. per day of hydrogen;

29 kw x $.005/kw = $0.14625/lb of H2 is the cost for the electricity.

Add capital and operating costs.

Capital costs include site, electrolizers, cooling systems, water purification, H2 dryers and liquefiers, AC-DC converters and transformers, H2, H20 and electrolytestorage tanks, loading facilities, plus a O2/CO2 combustion system

Operating costs include a excellent supply of clean/pure water, electrolyte, fuel supply for the O2/CO2 combustion unit and labor charges for the skilled staff needed to operate and maintain the plant.

For hydrogen to compete with gasoline at $2.00 to $2.20 per gallon, hydrogen needs to be available, liquified and ready for loading at the plant at a price below about $0.55 per lb. The facility has to be sited reasonably close to metropolitan area fueling outlets.

The big question is can one keep the capital and operating costs below $0.40 per lb?

At this point, with out specific data this is just a swag, but it would seem to be a difficult, but not necessarily impossible problem. While I don't advocate them, this is one area where Govt subsidies or a "Carbon Tax" would provide the necessary operating margin.

Assuming you kept Operating and Capital costs under the limit. then 3 lb of H2 x $.55 would equal a raw prodution cost of $l.65. Add in the national average of $0.62 fuel taxes (Govt, State and Lccal) results in a wholesale gasoline equiv price of approx $2.27.

Retail costs include all costs from pick up at the plant to end user delivery. The very few bits of info I've seen on this generally put this cost at roughly twice the per gallon costs of gasoline due to the higher capital costs, higher distribution costs, venting losses and the more expensive retail dispensing equipment as they will most likely will have to be robotic.

This area is another grey part of the calculation. I've seen numbers running from as low as $0.32 per gallon to as high as $0.70. I have no particular belief that the mean is any more accurate then the extremes. The actual profit margin is only a few cents on the gallon for high volume/low price outlets.

This comes out to a all up cost of somewhere between $2.65 and $3.10 gallon gasoline equivilent.

I've seen proposals to site the electrolysis operations for hydrogen production at the refueling stations. This would require a line rate of approx. $.10/kw-hr and would likely preclude use of full off peak rates. This would be 20 times the $.005/kw-hr charge proposed for the centralized off peak H2 facility. This excessive electrical cost would likely make the final product close to twice as expensive.


In any case, this is what I would consider a "best case" scenario.

Now the final price looks workable, as long as oil prices stay high and become unworkable if they don't.

But now we have the consumer question. Will consumers pay more for a somewhat less capable machine which uses a slightly more expensive fuel in order to ease the guilt and insure that their grandkids won't have to swim to work?

My opinion, is that without a fairly stiff "Carbon tax" on gasoline, the answer is mostly no.

Now if the fuel costs is artificially made lower then the adoption rate will be higher, though I've yet to see what the additional cost burden would be to have an H2 only vehicle. The hybrids have had moderate success selling fairly expensive but quite small vehicles with somewhat lower fuel efficiency then consumers thought. What isn't clear is how sales will progress once the supply of "true believers" are satisfied and more mainstream style/size hybrids reach the market. Again, this is anyone's guess, my crystal ball is in the shop because it kept saying to "Buy Enron" and "Free Martha".


Arthur

lengould
Hi Arthur: Good calculation of electrical source H2, though that is actually the most expensive way to produce H2. Have you seen SHEC Labs website lately? To me that looks really interesting, catalyzed direct thermal water splitting (<750 degC) with a static centrifuge separation mechanism, currently demonstrated with a solar collector for heat. Yeah, I know, what's the capital cost / unit. Still, Hydrogenics / Stuart (Electrolyzer) (another useful Cdn research group) have formed a partnership with them, and they claim to've done demo runs in Arizona with doe.

http://www.shec-labs.com/index.htm

Wonder how far off the Sulphur Iodine process from ?nrel? using a nuclear reactor is.
adoucette
QUOTE (lengould+Apr 19 2005, 06:17 PM)
Hi Arthur:  Good calculation of electrical source H2, though that is actually the most expensive way to produce H2.  Have you seen SHEC Labs website lately?  To me that looks really interesting,  catalyzed direct thermal water splitting (<750 degC) with a static centrifuge separation mechanism, currently demonstrated with a solar collector for heat.  Yeah, I know, what's the capital cost / unit.  Still, Hydrogenics / Stuart (Electrolyzer) (another useful Cdn research group) have formed a partnership with them, and they claim to've done demo runs in Arizona with doe.

http://www.shec-labs.com/index.htm

Wonder how far off the Sulphur Iodine process from ?nrel? using a nuclear reactor is.

Apparently the reason that electrolysis is favored is the purity issue and the fact that the large scale power plants as well as hydro sources and wind all produc