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Futuretalk
Reading, writing may become obsolete in future, experts say
By Futuretalk

When was the last time you saw fast-food restaurant employees’ actually key prices into the register? Today, clerks behind the counter press buttons with pictures of cups, burgers, or bags of fries. They never need to read or remember cost of items.

Futurist William Crossman, author of Vivo [Voice-In/Voice-Out]: The Coming Age of Talking Computers, believes that tomorrow’s mobile and virtual reality devices, using visual displays like those in fast-food restaurants, will render reading, writing, and text obsolete in the not-to-distant future.

Before Homo sapiens ever existed, ancient proto-humans accessed information by speaking and listening; and by smelling, tasting and touching. They relied on memory to store information they heard. Speaking and listening was civilization’s preferred method of communication for millions of years.

Then about 10,000 years ago an explosion of information emerged with the onset of the agricultural revolution and memory overload quickly followed. Human memories were no longer efficient and reliable enough to store and share the huge volume of new ideas. To overcome this problem, our forbearers developed a remarkable technology that has lasted for thousands of years – written language.

Written language, with pictographs and alphabets, enabled us to record ideas and information on paper and other materials. It served to extend our human memory, and today, ranks along with food, air and water as one of the most important elements in our lives.

However, scientists believe that today’s reading and writing technologies will not serve us well in tomorrow’s high-tech world. Oxford University Professor Lady Greenfield suggests traditional learning systems; lectures, exams, and books; even reading and writing, will become obsolete in a society filled with voice-interactive machines and an Internet that could one day store all the world’s information.

Tomorrow’s students will be more comfortable voicing commands to mobile devices and other displays to ask questions, retrieve information, and play music and videos. Searching through books will be considered a waste of time. Forces driving this transformation include the following:

1. Growing numbers of young people strongly prefer speech over other communication systems.
2. Billions of non-literate citizens around the world with poor reading, writing and language skills want access to information, but most become frustrated in attempts to get it.
3. Interactive voice systems expected by 2012 will replace most keyboards and remote controls.

Germany’s Infineon Technologies has recently developed a series of chips powerful enough to enable mobile devices to process huge data loads required for future education and entertainment needs.

Traditional input methods of touch screen, keypad, and pen will give in to speech recognition with body movement awareness (recognizing hand gestures and facial expressions through cameras mounted in the device). Using this enhanced tool as its hub, tomorrow’s “e-Education” systems will connect students to an intelligent assistant via the Internet, which will monitor their progress and contact live advisors when necessary.

Advanced interactive visual display systems will empower everyone on Earth to understand information regardless of their ability to read or write. Positive futurists believe that this breakthrough could, by as early as mid-century or before, enable more nations to come together technologically and linguistically and participate in what promises to become an amazing “magical future.”

This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments welcome. See other published work by Futuretalk at http://www.positivefuturist.com and click on the “published work” tab.
Nick
THIS SEEMS TO PROMOTE ILLITERACY.

WHAT ABOUT INUMERACY?

MITCH RAEMSCH -- LIGHT FELL --
Futuretalk
QUOTE (Nick+May 29 2007, 05:32 PM)
THIS SEEMS TO PROMOTE ILLITERACY.

WHAT ABOUT INUMERACY?

MITCH RAEMSCH -- LIGHT FELL --

Helping the billions of 3rd world citizens that do not read or write adequately access information can hardly be described as promoting illiteracy.

And innumeracy has already affected most of civilization, as computers can already crunch numbers far better than humans. This is a good thing because it frees us to use our brains for more important tasks.
Nick
THEY DON'T DESERVE TECHNOLOGY IF THEY CAN'T READ. tongue.gif

MITCH RAEMSCH -- LIGHT FELL --
Quatermass
I think you'll find that many people in the third world CAN read and write. It is just that they do not often have the opportunity or need to do so. As to electronics, we have written records going back thousands of years but few original electronic records going back even ten years because computers cannot be trusted. There are all sorts of infections, computer problems and so on which make electronic writing a non-permanent medium. DVD's are certainly non-permanent with even new ones not playing sometimes and they are so easily rendered useless. Even the best hard drive will eventually fragment from normal use.
Futuretalk
I guess some of us see advancing technologies in a different light.
N O M
QUOTE (Futuretalk+May 30 2007, 12:09 AM)
When was the last time you saw fast-food restaurant employees’ actually key prices into the register? Today, clerks behind the counter press buttons with pictures of cups, burgers, or bags of fries. They never need to read or remember cost of items.

This sort of thing is just another form of literacy. Replacing words with symbols is how writing was developed. It's just happening again.

A good example is the universal controls on an ipod:
User posted image
No writing, but it is clear how it works. Quite a well thought out interface.
xtrmn8r
I think there are some serious problems with the explosion of all the computer devices in use today. They have curtailed the need for analytical thought. You no longer have to know multiplication tables or even need to understand how to arrive at an answer.

Text messaging has replaced the need to spell and books can be listened to, which replaces the need for imagination!

People are losing the ability think and allowing machines to be used as a crutch!

photojack
I agree with many points brought up here. I learned multiplication and division the tried and true way. Some younger people are totally clueless if their battery goes dead in their calculator. ohmy.gif Purposely abbreviating for speed in "txt msgng" is no substitute for learning to spell properly, while attaining appreciation for word origins and etymologies. biggrin.gif There will always be a place for books as long as man occupies this planet. I welcome the advances in technology. Having grown up before the Internet, I can fully appreciate the enhanced access to information. My mother was about 13 when they first got electricity to her city. I remember vinyl records and black and white TV. rolleyes.gif Things will change, but hopefully on a foundation of solidity that books and writing will continue to provide! cool.gif

An excellent post to promote your site. I will be checking out futuretalk!
Futuretalk
William Crossman, mentioned in the article, recently expanded his views on how, by 2050 he claims, advanced interactive visual display systems will make the written word obsolete, re-creating a global oral culture.

Crossman is very optimistic that writing can and will be replaced by newer technologies that do the same job more effectively, cost-efficiently, and universally.

He thinks talking computers as well as speech, graphics, and video streaming over the Internet will replace text-driven computers and written texts (no more keyboards!) even the functionally non-literate and the disabled will have access to all info without learning to read and write simply by speaking, looking, listening, or signing.

Voice in-Voice out will also make instantaneous language translation possible, so “foreign” language barriers will melt away.

Crossman also thinks humans are genetically/evolutionarily hardwired to access info by speaking, listening, and using our other senses. We start doing this at age 1 or 2, well before we start writing.

The pro-Voice in-Voice out orientation of the young will also change education. The school literacy “crisis” could be reversed through the adoption of this new type of curriculum. The “three Rs” will be replaced by the “four Cs” – critical thinking, creativity, computer skills, and calculators.

Our great-great-grandchildren won’t know how to read and it won’t matter. They will be as skillfully “literate” in info tech of their generation as we are in ours.
Futuretalk
Another view on the future of reading and writing:

Many forward-thinkers believe that tomorrow’s technologies will provide humans with huge intelligence boosts which could eliminate the drudgery of recognizing facts in an article or story by “reading” each paragraph, sentence, or word.

By mid-2030’s or so, Singularity enthusiasts believe we will be endowed with non-biological neurons that process information millions of times faster and more accurate than today’s slow brains can.

Future humans will download a complete “book” in digital format and instantly “know” every detail and receive all appropriate emotional stimuli the author intended.

With our “super-brains”, we could multi-task activities such as enjoying a blockbuster movie while carrying on a normal conversation with a friend.

Granted, it is difficult to imagine such a science-fiction type future unfolding, but when one considers the exponential speed of advancing technologies, this forward future seems possible.

Comments welcome.
Magic Man
Trouble is, many "forward thinkers" tend to think a little too far and tend to overlook practicality in a lot of cases - giving futuristic alternatives just for the sake of it.

We will still be reading and writing and pressing keys in the near future at least. And I for one don't want to use a PC by speech alone... "left, left, run, dive, fire"...
Yep, right. Give me my WASD keys anyday...

The "universal controls" on an iPod were around a long time before the iPod...
gmilam
Someone's going to need to be able to read the manual to fix these devices.

Oh and - I have photo negatives that are over 50 years old that I can still print from. I have discs that are less than 5 years old that nothing will read...

I don't think analog technology is going away anytime soon.
Futuretalk
In a post-Singularity future, humans will not consider themselves “using” PCs in any way. Computers will be completely ubiquitous.

With minds connected directly and wirelessly to most of the world’s information and entertainment data stored on a terabyte-speed Internet, our thoughts will provide us with answers, solutions, and joys, creating a life as different from today’s crude existence as we are to our cave-men ancestors.

Although advances like these may sound mind-boggling, many of the technologies that promise this miracle world are already underway today.

In the latter half of this century, humanity could be focusing on ways to terraform our planet, making it safer and more durable; and getting serious about developing space colonies in artificial habitats and on moon, Mars, and other locations in our solar system.

By as early as late 22nd century, more humans could live in space than on Earth.

Will this “magical future” happen? Positive futurists believe it will.

Comments welcome.
gmilam
You have more faith in the altruistic nature of software companies (and human beings in general) than I do. We've squandered the potential of Television for American Idol and reality TV. I don't see us doing much better with the information super highway.
Futuretalk
Admittedly reality TV is not for everybody; personally, I cannot stand it; and I love most TV.

However, huge numbers of eyeballs watch these yucky shows and those eyeballs are connected to shoppers that purchase gobs of products sold by advertisers. This capitalist procedure provides commerce that helps our crude civilization go forward. I guess what I’m trying to say is that some good can even come out of crappy things like reality TV.

In the future, entertainment will become 100% personal. Millions of productions will be available on the Internet for on-command retrieval by individuals who will only select programs that are tailored to their specific interests. Broadcasting will not exist in the post-Singularity future.

Again, today’s pitiful world will not compare to tomorrow’s “magical future.”
N O M
QUOTE (xtrmn8r+May 30 2007, 01:16 PM)
I think there are some serious problems with the explosion of all the computer devices in use today. They have curtailed the need for analytical thought. You no longer have to know multiplication tables or even need to understand how to arrive at an answer.

Text messaging has replaced the need to spell and books can be listened to, which replaces the need for imagination!

People are losing the ability think and allowing machines to be used as a crutch!

The skills that are valued now are accessing and using information, rather than rote memory.

Spelling isn't such an issue, it's understanding that is the key.

A key speaker at a conference I went to recently asked the question: How would the development of texting language have been different if it had been done by a business or government? It would have taken forever, as it would have been stuck with commitees and change control.

I don't feel that people are losing the ability to think. They are learning new ways of creatively using the huge volume of information available.

One thing that people do need to learn in today's world is how to think critically, to verify that information is correct. The posts from the cranks on this site are good examples of what can happen when this skill is not applied.
kjw
QUOTE
Nick Posted: Yesterday at 6:32 AM THEY DON'T DESERVE TECHNOLOGY IF THEY CAN'T READ. 
MITCH RAEMSCH -- LIGHT FELL --
your desire for attention has ruined your humanity Nick. the need to satisfy this desire has taken precedence over morality.

you are now addicted to seeking attention.



N O M
QUOTE (Futuretalk+May 31 2007, 04:53 AM)
In the future, entertainment will become 100% personal. Millions of productions will be available on the Internet for on-command retrieval by individuals who will only select programs that are tailored to their specific interests. Broadcasting will not exist in the post-Singularity future.

I think there will be a huge surge in people working in the entertainment industry. It will be easily possible for ordinary people to produce professional quality movies (or 3D, interactive), using AI actors. Real-time news will be easily possible with anybody on a newsworthy or interesting scene being able to transmit their own broadcasts for people to instantly download.

People will have a lot more free time than they do at the moment, so the demand for entertainment will be enormous.
Futuretalk
Yes, entertainment demand will be enormous in the future.

And with innovative technologies like 3D holographic images that can jump off the display and appear as a live person, similar to the digital image character in Quantum Leap; and virtual reality programs influenced by nanobots rearranging neurons to convince minds that the images one sees are real, many of tomorrow’s entertainment programs will truly seem like magic.
N O M
QUOTE (Futuretalk+Jun 1 2007, 12:15 AM)
and virtual reality programs influenced by nanobots rearranging neurons to convince minds that the images one sees are real

I hope not.

There should be some room for imagination. It would be far easier to encase your body in a suspended suit capable of simulating any environment or scenario.
Futuretalk
In post-singularity era – circa 2040’s – nano-robots will become a permanent part of our bodies.

Their normal activities will include checking up on the welfare of each of our cells, keeping pathogens and other harmful elements at bay, and correcting faulty DNA errors as they occur.

However, when called on by a virtual reality program; these intelligent ‘bots will be far more efficient than today’s “haptic” systems where sensors in clothing and wires try to simulate the touch and feel portions of a VR program.

For example, instead of sensors in our hands tricking us into believing that we are really touching someone, nanobots would go directly to our neurons to create the entire scene and excite all our senses. This will make the VR experiences incredibly believable. Adventures in this wild future time will only be limited by our imagination.
MDT
The idea of reading and writing becoming obsolete has its ups and downs. If one is talking to someone who speaks a different language translators or pictoral language can be quite helpful, since these are more univeral. But the other side of the coin, if one is conversing with people who speak the same language, it would be more cumbersome to flip through a catalog to get a pic to express subtle meaning compared to just talking. It could slow you down to where you could lose your train of thought, looking for that very specific pic to get the correct shade of meaning. Everyone knows a motor mouth. They woud go from 100mph to 30mph, which may be good.

Writing also has it up and downs. It is easier to generate a form letter from a template and them fill in a few blanks. It would be faster than typing at 100 wpm while tyring to compose from scratch. But someone writing a novel doesn't always need speed, since most of their prime effort is connected to the creative process, which is often the slowest step. Spell check can be helpful ,but grammer corection can often alter the meaning or take away from a special affect an author is trying to achieve.

Picture if you are a poet, who job is tranposing words and phrases to paint verbal pictures. If grammer check edits for you, it would no longer be poetry. "What light shines through yonder window?" becomes "What type light is shining through the window?". With pics it would get very complicated to express the same sentiment. If the poet could shut off the grammer check and wasn't constrained to pics, a lessor machine would allow him to get his poem to publication in record time.
Futuretalk
Reading and writing in the post-Singularity world – 2040’s and 2050’s – cannot be compared to today’s humans with their slow-processing biological neurons.

Today, supercomputers are evolving exponentially, and futuristic science as early as mid-2030’s, promise to replace biological neurons with high-speed “nano-neurons”. These new neurons will process information billions of times faster than our today’s brains can.

According to Nanorex founder J. Storrs Hall in his new book, “Beyond AI: Creating the Conscience of the Machine,” mid-century humans could read and fully understand a 400-page book written with today’s words, in less than one minute.

And with abilities to run thousands of simulations in our minds in just seconds, writing will also become far more creative than it is today.

It is difficult to imagine how future communications will evolve with minds that think and process information so fast.

Might we one day simply skip most of the details and create simulations with our thoughts, and just enjoy the emotion arousal.

It is impossible for this writer, with my slow biological neurons, to predict with much accuracy how reading and writing will change in a mind-boggling future like this; but I sure hope life extension technologies will enable me to survive and find out.
MDT
Human neurons may be slow if we look at one synapse, compared to the speed of semi-conductor memory, but what the brain lacks in synaptic speed, it makes up for with multi-tasking ability. Say you are having a conversation with another person, face to face, there will be many neurons active connected to audio- visual input-output.

The audio is not just picking out words, but filtering accents, analyzing the timber and inflections of the voice. It is ignorring pauses and breathing or anything not needed to get the point across.The visual is not just seeing the person but is looking at lips, body language. It is also creating periphreal awareness of the TV, the kids, etc., While this is going on, one may be aware of emotional feelings, body sensations. One can also be in their imagination in a fantasy. Language is being preprocessed before it exists our lips. The brain is working the muscles to make the voice and sounds possible, etc. It is doing this while also being aware of all the cells of the body via the nervous tissue near each cell, while tweaking the blood supply. That is just the tip of the iceburg.

To do any of these tasks, as was well as the brain, does at the same time, would be a major achievement for AI. It is not the brain that is limiting. Rather it is the inability of consciousness to utilize the brain's capacity. The estimate that we use 10% of the brain capacity does not mean that the brain is only 10 times more powerful than a smart person. That estimate does not take into consideration all the unconscious support behind that 10%, that consciousness does have to worry aboyt. When I talk I do not have to consciously form every word. All that processing counts as part of my 10% without me doing anything. Try this test; walk 100meters. That was easy. Now do it consciously thinking about every muscle involved in the motion of walking, before you let yourself move each step. That gives a better handle on the limitations consciousness. A one year old would look more graceful, even with their 2% (99.99% unconscious support).

Say one could read a 400 page book in 1 min, the brain, as a whole, may get it, but consciousness may be stuck at the first chapter. One would have to do a hypnotic regression so it can recall it. Consciousness is the limiting step. Maybe an improved AI interface to the brain for consciousness would allow up to tap into the super-dooper-computer.
Futuretalk
Remember, we’re talking post-Singularity era when the information revolution, brought on by artificial intelligence systems that not only outthink humans, but will be able to replicate themselves, with increased intelligence added to each new generation.

During this wonder time, 2035 to 2050, quantum computing should be in full bloom, and this expected intelligence explosion may, as some experts predict, enable AI to “grow” into a conscious state that could be superior to human consciousness.

Of course, it is hoped that human-machine merges will be doable during this time, and these superior AI’s will eventually become us.

Granted, this scenario sounds too wild to be part of our future, but positive futurists believe that this is where humanity is heading. It could become the next step in human evolution – the post-human, post-Singularity being.

Comments welcome.
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