The growing confluence of nanotechnology, robotics, chemistry, and data/information carrying, each one of these expanding on it's own to boot, has no choice but to transform. The law of accelerating returns is being witnessed.
Between 10^9.5 and 10^7 years before the present, life went from beginning to Family Hominoidea.
By 10^5 years before present there was Sapiens sapiens - us.
We were inventing agriculture by 10^4.
By 10^2.3 years before now was the Industrial Revolution.
By 10^1.4 before now was the personal computer.
What's to keep this billions-year-old exponential unfolding from continuing? As long as we don't go the way of the Drosophila-in-the-jar experiments (which should be solved BY the exponential decrease of the time taken to discover/invent), this juggernaut of human curiosity and drive will most certainly continue. I think we are collectively on a somewhat bumpy ride to an increasingly fantastic potential, as we have always been.
First of all, anyone who knows that I post infrequently, I am a Christian, so I will make this hypothetical, but keep in mind, in spite of the hypothetical, I don't necessarily think humans will attain such knowledge.
According to my rough estimate, in about 12 years, computer "video cards" will be capable of processing and rendering an animated Hologram of resolution 1024*1024*1024, and with the same frame rate as a modern 3d graphics card assuming such an hologram technology is discovered.
One problem we experience is the fact that it is easier to improve information technology or manipulate virtual realities than it is to discover new technologies in the real world. It is easier to simulate Luke Skywalker using "The Force" than it is to take a scientific principle and transform it into a useful invention that realisticly and practically replaces an existing technology, and at the same time does not instantly destroy the entire world market.
This is example of the radical world economy destroying invention.
If the Utopian Star Trek style food and clothing replicators were invented, you might think the world would instantly be cured of hunger. But what about finances and government?
The entire existing world food industry would be destroyed almost over night. Most people's entire net worth in America, Europe, Central and South America, and most of Asia, would instantly be obliterated. The ensuing chaos resulting from a billion farmers world wide suddenly having no niche in civilization would be unimaginable, not to mention all the other jobs that are directly or indirectly related to farming: Shipping, Trucking, etc. In a matter of days of the announcement of the invention, the entire world economy would be completely over turned. Gold, food, oil, currency, etc, all "worthless" in the blink of an eye. Anarchy runs amok as governments lose any economic authority or validity whatsoever.
---
Unavoidable megadisaster
1) Volcanic Winter(Terrestrial)
If humans have not yet colonized space, we die.
2) Nova Sun(stellar)
If humans have not yet colonized extra-solar space, we die.
3) Super Nova(interstellar)
If humans have not yet colonized beyond a very, very long range from the exploding star, we all die anyway.
4) Intergalactic Collision
If humans have not colonized space beyond the Milky Way, we all die anyway.
5) Cosmic Heat death(or whatever)
Assuming we escape all of the other 4, humanity eventually perishes anyway along with the proton and electron, unless we discover a way to travel to an alternate universe that is in a younger stage of existence and contains planets habitable for life. Wow, sounds like a "New Heaven and a New Earth" to me.
LOL.
midwestern
25th May 2008 - 08:15 PM
Bad thought Quantum Coumdrum. Improving technologies further productivity without replacing workers. Entire industries will never vanish but be helped or aided by nanotech.
midwestern
25th May 2008 - 08:18 PM
One more thing Conundrum. Your examples are sci-fi and actual ones need apply.
Quantum_Conundrum
25th May 2008 - 09:13 PM
QUOTE (midwestern+May 25 2008, 03:18 PM)
One more thing Conundrum. Your examples are sci-fi and actual ones need apply.
My examples may be "sci-fi" but they are not outside the realm of what is plausible.
What can we really say about nanobots? They can theoretically be used to make and repair machines almost right down to the molecular level.
One big problem for nanobots is how do they communicate and how to store information?
Each bot has enough RAM and a transistor to communicate instructs just a few at a time with a central macroscopic computer via radio. It stores teh instructions in memory and processes them just like a remote controlled toy car. microscopic sensors relay sensory data back to the controlling central computer.
In other words, you do most of the processing elsewhere in large super computers.
This is how I would classify "real" nanobots that actually do anything more complicated than move a single molecule.
First generation nanobots would basicly be just microscopic ROVs with a few basic tools.
Second generation nanobots would be very similar, except the central computer has its own AI and doesn't need direct human input once programmed.
Third generation nanobots(maybe impossible) would not need the hub at all. They would have very limited onboard processing, and would be able to network directly with one another to share processing power and coordinate to perform a task. Each bot could store a portion of the core programming, and they would share these files among one another in temporary storage as needed. They would be programmed collectively with a handheld device, and would shut down automaticly after returning to a designated area when the task is completed.
Fourth generation(probably impossible) would be able to store all programs needed onboard each individual nanobot. Once programmed with a handheld device, a spoonful of such bots suspended in water might repair the damage to your stomach caused by an ulcer, etc, and then shut down harmlessly, with no further instructions.
midwestern
27th May 2008 - 07:49 PM
Excellent progression QC. I have no arguments with any evolutionary processes 1-4, and someone else can comment if they disagree with you.

Good job.
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