http://www.physorg.com/news7093.html

May Love and Compassion reach all those suffering from mother earth´s accomodating habits.
The Major Earthquake that has just taken place in the Asia region has been forecasted as a logical consequence of the Megathrust Boxing day 2004 Big Sumatra earthquake. So was the South America Major Earthquake of June 13th 2005.
http://forum.physorg.com/index.php?showtopic=2987
So where to from here on?
Scientists are invited to join in to contribute and share information on the topic at the Physorg.com web place.
Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone...

Rafael & all,


I second the motion for love and compassion.


I would like to discuss the mechanics of the connections between earthquakes and the electron flux / magnetometer readings available from USGS. Some of the following charts have clear pre-cursor qualities, others are too much in "real time" to be of use for predictions. Look for long, vertical movement in the charts.


Sumatra 12-26-04 (9.2)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

Tarapaca 06-13-05 (7.8)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

N.California coast 06-15-05 (7.2), 06-17-05 (6.7)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

Papua New Guinea 09-09-05 (7.7)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

N.Peru 09-27-05 (7.6)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

Pakistan 10-08-05 (7.6)
Electron Flux
Magnetometer

There is similar correlation to X-Ray flux, but it is not as "dramatic" as the Electron Flux and Magnetometer readings. Proton flux does not change with earthquakes, but does elevate considerably with strong solar flares.

There is a very good site for monitoring Neutron rates here: Moscow Neutron Monitor

You have to go to the site, and then select the time frame you wish to check. (other than the current state, which loads automatically)


T.Roc

Thank you, T. Roc.

It will take me sometime to copy-print-study-comment the electron flux and magnetometer graphics so please be patient waiting for a reply. Before hand, let me tell you that I have sort of realized, and wrote about it before, that "in some cases, energy released by earthquakes at times behave like a particle (rocky earth) and at times like a wave" (in this case maybe electron flux-magnetic flow). Also, I guess energy moves along the plate limits-trenches and, in the case of intermediate depth earthquakes, along some territory at 80 to 120 kms deep, which maybe the crust bottom or maybe rocky matter at that depth acquires some sort of conductivity property. I don`t know, nobody knows...

Much regards,
Rafael

Rafael,


I would like to post results here from an experimental way to pick up ultra long period waves as precursors, and have your expertise to bounce the results off.


At 6:00pm PST, a fairly strong signal ( I would rate 6 on a 1to10; stronger than last weeks' Pakistan quake) was received, with the same "spin up" (left). Whether the strength indicates proximity, or strength, is yet to be seen. I need to calibrate the signal with any "hits". Using an estimated "pressure bow wave" arrival time of 5-6 hours prior to an earthquake.

It is now 7:24pm PST. We'll see..



T.Roc

Troc,
One. I reviewed your June 20th post and found the "opposite spin while I was there line" but could not found a further reference to narrow down the spins to what I believe depends on what hemisphere you are standing while the motions happen. I.e. Let´s call counterclockwise spin (left) climbing as you look down towards your feet and clockwise (right) climbing as you look down. Correct? Now, please let me know which of the two directions were felt for the Tarapaca earthquake and for the California earthquake and we will have a definition.

Two. You can keep a good watch on current seismicity at the European Mediteranean Seismic Center, Real Time register, which is automatically updated everytime a seism, anywhere in the world, triggers an alert. The address is :

http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1

We will then keep an alert eye on developments...
Regards,
Rafael

Rafael,


Thanks for the link. I'll have to dig out some reference to convert the magnitudes, I'm much more familiar with the Richter. BTW, did you see the videos in the Aceh quake story here on this site? (in the last 2 days) There are 3, actually, but one shows the reflection off of N.Peru very well. It hit you more "squarely", but was more of a "glancing blow" to N.America. This could be another reason the Nazca plate got more energy.


I didn't mean to confuse you about the "spin". What I previously mentioned was mainly to do with being in the S.Hemisphere, and I'm not sure it is quake related. It doesn't happen frequently enough. What I am talking about now is just frequency. (tonal) I used the spin term only to designate which side the tone was received. I will just say left or right sensor.

I may have picked up another, smaller one; this time on the right. Only at "4", and shorter duration. (about 4-5 seconds) Sometimes, I think there can be some "feedback" from the computer, causing a false signal in the lower amplitudes. Nonetheless, it was at 9:18pm PST 05/10/11 ( 4:18 UTC 05/10/12)


TRoc

Rafael,




NOTHING! It figures, after deciding to post it on this thread. It looks like one of the most quiet periods (non-active) that I have seen in a while. The only thing I saw as I was watching the charts, was some x-ray fluctuations. (x-ray flux) This site http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html is easier to monitor all the NOAA charts at once. IF it was the
"3.3 2005/10/12 06:27:30 35.510 -84.540 8.2 1 km SE of Niota, TN",
then maybe proximity is a factor. (maybe depth too?) I don't know what the signal was, but that is why I'm doing this - to try to learn more specifically.

EDIT: Now I know why you gave me that European real-time site. The USGS shows very a quiet period in the last 12 hours, but I see that was not so. In fact, really, there are TOO many to be of direct help to me. (I had bad luck with the last "real-time" site I used, so I've been sticking with USGS) The European site was down for maintenance for a while last night/this morning too.

From the period 18:00 PST 05/10/11 to 04:15 PST 05/10/12
01:00 UTC 05/10/12 to 11:15 UTC 05/10/12
the 10 hour window from "real time" forward:

2005/10/12 11:15 34.2N 72.4E Ml3.7 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 10:22 35.0N 72.1E Ml4.0 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 10:05 30.4N 64.8E Ml4.3 A NNC S.W. AFGHANISTAN
2005/10/12 09:36 37.3N 28.2E 5 MD2.9 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 08:50 36.0N 76.0E Ml3.0 A NNC KASHMIR-XINJIANG BORDER
2005/10/12 08:00 49.7N 85.6E Ml3.6 A NNC E. KAZAKHSTAN
2005/10/12 06:48 36.1N 43.6E 5 MD3.3 M KAN IRAQ
2005/10/12 06:36 35.6N 72.5E 33 mb4.9 M GSRC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 06:34 34.7N 73.7E Ml4.3 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 06:22 35.7N 77.0E Ml3.0 A NNC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 06:0134.8N 73.9E Ml3.2 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 05:55 35.0N 72.4E Ml3.5 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 05:45 34.7N 72.7E Ml3.2 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 05:10 34.9N 72.5E Ml3.4 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 04:47 11.9S 119.1E mb5.1 A GFZ SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:47 11.4S 119.4E 32 M 4.8 M SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:47 11.4S 119.6E 40 mb5.2 M SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:47 11.4S 119.4E 2 mb5.0 A MIX SUMBA, INDONESIA
2005/10/12 04:38 34.8N 73.3E Ml3.3 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 04:30 37.9N 142.0E 60 mb4.9 M GSRC EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/10/12 04:30 37.6N 140.9E mb5.1 A GFZ EAST HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/10/12 04:30 37.9N 141.4E 2 mb5.2 A MIX EASTERN HONSHU
2005/10/12 04:20 35.4N 74.5E Ml3.0 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 04:12 39.7N 37.4E 3 MD3.1 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 04:04 36.6N 27.1E 5 MD3.2 M KAN DODECANESE, GREECE
2005/10/12 03:49 51.3N 16.2E Ml2.5 A GFU POLAND
2005/10/12 03:32 34.5N 73.2E Ml3.0 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 03:12 39.0N 29.9E 13 MD2.8 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 02:57 35.7N 75.6E Ml3.4 A NNC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 35.1N 73.8E Ml4.2 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 34.6N 74.0E 40 A MIX S.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:54 33.6N 75.4E 33 mb4.2 M GSRC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 03:49 51.3N 16.2E Ml2.5 A GFU POLAND
2005/10/12 03:32 34.5N 73.2E Ml3.0 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 03:12 39.0N 29.9E 13 MD2.8 M KAN TURKEY
2005/10/12 02:57 35.7N 75.6E Ml3.4 A NNC EASTERN KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 35.1N 73.8E Ml4.2 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:55 34.6N 74.0E 40 A MIX S.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:54 33.6N 75.4E 33 mb4.2 M E. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 02:12 35.1N 72.0E Ml3.1 A NNC PAKISTAN
2005/10/12 01:57 35.1N 73.7E Ml3.2 A NNC N.W. KASHMIR
2005/10/12 01:44 34.8N 72.6E Ml3.3 A NNC PAKISTAN

This is the most likely candidate, but why would it stand out?
2005/10/12 06:34 34.7N 73.7E Ml4.3 A NNC PAKISTAN


ciao!


TRoc

Troc,
I gave you the european site because it is automatic, the events arer published as they are sorted by the computer system. Although thay are not meant as exact data because there is no intervention of a seismologist, they serve as guides of something happening which will later be reviewed in more detail. That is when a red line appears which is the mix.
On the other hand the USGS site is for me more precise but slower for events to be published, they are not updated during week ends or holidays for example.
As you keep track of events more and more you will notice that the data is also being constantly updated and what today was supposed to have occurred here, in two days time will be there and in a weeks time will be more exactly defined. The exactness of the parameters is given by the letters and numbers which later appear on the far right of the USGS line.
Good luck and enjoy your tracking!
Rafael

Rafael,


I am back home again, I was probably as close to you as I will ever be.. in Puno, Peru. The Lake islands are beautiful.

On my "personal" method, I realize I need more data. Namely, my own "background" frequency of each ear, and then, to carry with me a set of forks so that I could identify the "signal". I have seen a formula for determining the latitude based on this. I do not know about the longitude.

On the Solar data, the same seems to be true. It seems like a good start, but I can't see how to identify the location of an upcoming quake by a general precursor. With that said, here goes anyway.

The Magnetometer and Electron flux readings started a strong movement (downward) at around 2300 UTC Nov 2, and now seem to be at their low point. (0400 UTC Nov 3) From what I have seen before, the size of the movement suggests a larger that 6.5 quake is imminent.. but where?



TRoc

zoinks!


Well, there was a "k>5" solar flare at that time, and a bunch of rare, but small quakes in France, of all places. Oh well..


A related news bit:

Sat Nov 5, 3:42 AM ET
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan, one of the world's most earthquake-prone nations, plans to launch a seismic alert system next year to capture early quake movements and issue warnings of more damaging tremors, officials said on Saturday.
A test version of the system, operating in the northern prefecture of Miyagi since February, was able to sound a warning that a big earthquake would strike the city of Sendai 15 seconds before a 7.2 quake jolted the area on August 16, the daily Asahi Shimbun said.

15 seconds is a start anyway. Do you know anything of their precursor mechanism?


TRoc

Troc, I suppose you've read it, I've just done it. Here is the link to the 10 or 15 seconds early warning:

http://www.physorg.com/news8092.html

There are other links at the bottom of that article which are also interesting I we have touched upon those topics before, like, a 55 second film done buy german scientists which is a preview of what would afterwards become the Aceh Quake over several days...That together to my research, also linked there, that the first four afteshocks show the general direction and extent of the future two months aftershocks.

http://www.physorg.com/news3923.html

So it looks like the first 10 seconds, the first 55 seconds the first 30 minutes, are all alike or a repeat of the wave. For months, ¿MAYBE YEARS? That would be something to think about.

Well, I've been busy plotting and sorting both global and NPSZ earthquakes and it shows a quiteness right now after the waves finally reached Anatolia (Turkey) but only as moderate earthquakes. The Aleutians also showed moderate activity. There has been two odd events in the Atlantic/Antartic ridge towards a hot spot affected by a 8.8 Mw mgnitude (1998) and another big earthquake December 2004, right before the Aceh Quake. The Arica Bight or Bend has also been quite after a few light earthquakes 25-27 October. The Ecuador area has also some moderate activity. I expect increased activity to resume sometime soon and will keep you posted.

Regards,
Rafael

Hola Rafael,


Yes, I did read that one too; I assumed it to be the same concept that the Japanese were using.

I agree with your time frame of continuing "energetic patterns", and lean towards the YEARS side. We are coming up on the 1 year anniversary of the Aceh quake; if it was at all "helped" by distortions from space, this should manifest in a smaller repeat in that area.

I was going to suggest a slightly smaller quake off the coast of Oregon following seeing the 5.0 in N. Peru, but I see now that it happened BEFORE (by almost 2 days) that quake. (and the Ecuador 5.9) This suggests to me that the "ringing" of the P and S waves speed has either "crossed over" (switching the "lead position"), or one is now being "drawn" toward a higher speed.

Again assuming some line of force originating in space, and striking our sphere roughly perpendicular, the line would continue through to the other side. If it entered approximately at 95 E lat, 05 N long, the straight line exit (or in other words, the symmetrical realigning of our orbiting sphere with the line of force) would be about 80 W lat, 05 S long , and it would be at a 6 month interval. This was "confirmed" with the Tarapaca quake, in proximity. Then, with the "45 deg" deflection by the liquid core, perhaps the force was "uncoupled" (P & S waves). One manifested in "time", in late Sept. in N Peru (June position + 45 deg rotation = Sept ; same position, different time); the other manifested in "space" (distance) ending up on the N Cal./S Ore shore. (80 W + 45 = 125 W; 05 S + 45 = 40 N ; same time, different position) While I don't have much of a "formula", the pattern, explained in these terms, is hard to deny!


Back to the present: things have been calm as you say. On Nov 12th, the x-ray flux began to rise. As in my last "warning", a Solar flare has followed; we are now in an "unsettled" M class flare event. I don't think it has "peaked" yet. At about 16:00 UTC Nov 13, the electron flux began a "preliminary" drop, while the magnetometer reading is at a peak in the sine curve. I will come back this evening (my time), and fill in the current stats. Maybe tomorrow afternoon we will get a shake? Have you been following the area of the New Madrid fault? They are expecting something, and it is definitely "their turn"; maybe not quite yet.


TRoc

Rafael,


I didn't get a chance to come back last night. The M class flare did continue, as suspected, and now looks to be lessening.

Continuing the "group" pattern, there was a 5.1 in Tarapaca, Chile, and 6.9 (7.2?) in Honshu, Japan. I think that makes Honshu the most active of the areas we have been talking about.

I even picked up a "tone" ® at about 10:05am , and a second one about 15 min later. (18:05UTC) That would be about 3 1/2 hrs. prior to Honshu. Still no guide as to a specific frequency and location.

I am even more interested now in seeing what will happen in mid to late December.


TRoc

TRoc,

Yes, you are right about Japan and northern Chile. Other comments on both your posts are :
1. It is a characteristic that events follow each other or lead each other. As the plate moves under the continent, deeper earthquakes "make room for the plate to descend and therefore cause earthquakes up-plate. On the other hand, as both plate and continent are "locked" near the coast line, as an earthquake releases the stress (near the coast line) it will allow the plate to advance causing pressure down-plate, hence earthquakes.
2. Global activity can be expected in the Japan- Aleutians-Alaska trench as well as the Himalayas-Anatolia branch goig west. The Colombia-Ecuador area and southern Chile are hazardous also.
3. As for the group in northern Chile, there are two observations :
One, the Iquique Major earthquake has caused the Increased Activity Area (depth 100 Km +/- 20) which runs under the Andes Mountain's highest peaks to a higher level of activity with 5 earthquakes magnitud > 5.0 < 5.9 two hudred Kms north from the main site and one magn. 5.0 two hundred Kms south from the site. Actually the southern site corresponds to what can be considered the "last strong remote triggered event of the 2001 06 23 Big Earthquake of Souther Peru.", the northern group is key to the next Big event.
Two, Crust Response Earthquakes (CRE's), that is, shallow earthquakes which take place inland whereat the plate has descended beyond the bottom of the continent, occurr at the eastern limit of the Andes Mountains and sometimes, as is the case, now, occurr at the western rise of the Andes. There is a cluster of 33 light to moderate earthquakes in 90 days at coordinates -16.7 lat, -70.6 long, which is about 100 Kms north west from the northern group mentioned above.
You can access the seismicity maps at two Blogs on :

http://peraltaquake.blogspot.com/

Much regards,
Rafael

A new very strong earthquake has taken place in the Increased Activity Area in northern Chile:

2005/11/17 19:26:50 Lat -22.363 Long-67.851 Depth 104.7Km Magn 6.9 MwGs

The event lasted some 90 seconds and has been located at the southern tip of the Increased Activity Area (IAA) for intermediate depth. (See 15 Nov post above) and occurrs five months after the Major Earthquake of 2005 06 13 and some 250 Kms south from it at roughly the same depth. With this event, the seismic gap at the coast line area south of the Arica bight, which is well over 70 years with no strong or major activity, is stressed even more and major activity is forecasted for the gap.
Seismic maps can be accessed at :

http://rafaelperalta.blogspot.com/

Rafael,


I saw that one, it looks like it was quite a ride!
There was a spike in the x-ray flux, without the accompanying increase in kp value. This is the kind of stuff the Italian satellite is looking for.

Do you think there will be a follow up here off the Oregon/California coast?
The magnetometer & electron flux are peaking now, after a fairly good acceleration phase. Maybe 6.0 around mid-day??


Keep us posted on the build up you are monitoring.

PS. I saw your web page/blog, if it is new.. congratulations!


TRoc

Rafael,


Juan deFuca is a bugger! It "breaks up" waves and make this "prediction" stuff all the harder. At any rate, the slowness of USGS again.. none of these (esp. the last 3) were there last night, before I retired. This group is a little more North than I anticipated, but there were some "a little more" South too. (Chile)


MAP 5.2 2005/11/19 12:40:06 48.691 -128.543 10.0 280 km (174 mi) WSW of Campbell River, Canada
MAP 4.4 2005/11/16 14:07:41 49.997 -129.757 10.0 324 km (201 mi) W of Campbell River, Canada
MAP 3.5 2005/11/15 01:48:47 43.203 -127.705 10.0 266 km (165 mi) WNW of Port Orford, OR
MAP 3.8 2005/11/14 23:34:33 43.102 -128.139 10.0 299 km (186 mi) W of Port Orford, OR

Possibly, another pattern (part of the same one). In most (N & S America) of the large, vertical movement, all 4 lines move together. Look back at my previous post and check the last large Sumatra quake, as well as the Paua New Guinea.

Now look at this one. Only the =2 MeV lines move (bottom 2 lines).
Electron Flux NOV 19, 2005
Magnitude 6.5 - SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
2005 November 19 14:10:15 UTC

That one happened while I was preparing this post. When I saw the electron flux drop that way, I went right to the Sumatra area (thinking to make "prediction"), but it had already happened.


TRoc


PS. The stage is set for more large vertical movement, resulting in some more action. (somewhere! in the next 8-12 hrs)

Signal Update:


Higher frequency tone ®, LONG duration - 21:22 UTC.


Magnetometer: GOES 10 signal has remained relatively stable over the last 6 hours, while GOES 12 signal has dropped 75 nanoTeslas. VERY unusual

Electron Flux: >= 2MeV and >=.6MeV signals have "synched" back up (following separate movement corresponding to the Magnitude 6.5 - SIMEULUE, INDONESIA quake, and are on the rise again.

Estimated Planetary K Index: the last reading (3 hour data) @ 18:00 UTC shows a Kp index of "4"; this is a FAST jump, the previous 3 hr data was @ "1". The 21:00 data has not been posted (possible "bake-out"?).

3 to 8 hours...


TRoc

TRoc,
Please check again the "It had already happened" bit, as the reading could be right.
i.e. the Simeulue quake took place at 14+ hours UTC and the NOAA graph, which should be in UTC time also, shows :
1. a "blue" drop at 7 hours with a "cross over" with the red line and again, at 9+ hours, another drop, then both red and blue lines rise starting at 12 hours.
2. the brown and purple lines "cross over" at roughly the same times as the blue and red lines, they start to rise at 7 hours, then the purple line has a "spike" at 14 hours. (quake)
3. Both the brown and red lines rise faster than their partners.
4. If there is a precursory pattern, should check on cross overs, drop, then rise. Maybe a spike shows also on other graphs.
Though I've never got very much into the (your) theory as to know or understand its names and meanings, I feel there might be something into it. Keep up the good work and keep us posted!.
Regards,
Rafael

Rafael,


I think you are right about my time frame. It was 8 am my time when I posted, and, because I was a little excited (and still drinking coffee), I think I looked at 8 am UTC time as I was amending my post. That fits the pattern better, as the first true vertical line usually precedes seismic activity by ~ 6 to 8 hours.

The main point I was making was the top 2 lines not moving vertical at the same time as the bottom 2 lines on the electron flux chart. They only did that for the Sumatra and Papa NG, and this last SIMEULUE quakes. I am really trying to find a way to determine the LOCATION more than time at this point. The precursor for the TIME seems to be clear enough. But you are right, there are many possibilities for the movement of these 4 lines.

One thing to keep in mind, the "blue" and "indigo" (your purple) are from 1 satellite, and the "red" and "yellow" (your brown) are from another.


On the K index: there was no bake-out (which they refer to when they have equipment failure due to strong solar flare), it was a 2nd " 4 " reading. Back to back 4 readings are rare to my knowledge.

At this time (18:51 UTC Nov 20) the blue (GOES10 >=2 MeV) line is vertical again, and "smearing" (which I would define as some continuous vertical lines), but none of the others. Another "significant" quake should be coming soon.

I really have not had the time to do as you mentioned earlier: to print off charts of corresponding quake times, and analyze them side by side. I have really only even looked "consistently" since we have started communicating this way, and starting after the first Sumatra quake. The nice thing about these charts is, they are available many years back, so one could really take this study over a long period, and probably get somewhere. I am very busy with other projects though. Maybe someone will pick up on this; it would be great for all of our safety!


TRoc

Update:



Magnitude 6.0 - UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
2005 November 20 12:53:05 UTC

MAP 6.2 2005/11/20 12:53:06 54.122 -164.168 52.8 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
MAP 6.0 2005/11/20 12:53:03 53.854 -163.974 9.9 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA



TRoc

Update:


Last "cross over" following a pre-cursor "smearing" in electron flux (and magnetometer spike) reading aligns with this:

MAP 6.2 2005/11/21 15:36:32 31.000 130.069 147.7 KYUSHU, JAPAN



TRoc

Yes!
Other activity in Alaska and Philipines suggest precursory to a larger one in that (philipines-Japan-Alaska-California-Mexico) branch.
Suggest monitoring all branches.

Read something on the GOES web. Data shown comes from TWO satellites, one over the East coast the other over the West coast of the U.S. They both register data, but the west coast data is more significant. Maybe IF data on the east coast is larger than the west coast, then Earthquake precursory sign comes from the EAST. i.e. Europe, Turkey.

Or maybe we need more satellites !!
Regards,
Rafael

Rafael,


The GOES 10 satellite is at Long. W 135
The GOES 12 satellite is at Long. W 75

Perhaps the "cross-over" point can be used to determine location; the magnetometer for longitude, and the electron flux for latitude. I think I mentioned before having seen a formula for using latitude for determining frequency pre-cursors; I will try to find that. If nothing else, we have lots of empirical data from which to establish some pattern.


Update:

Nov 22 07:00 UTC - magnetometer cross-over following a spike.
Nov 22 06:00 UTC - electron flux >=.06MeV smear began, >=2MeV crossover at 07:00 UTC

Time prediction of "significant" activity: Nov 22 12:00 ~ 16:00


TRoc

EDIT: The smearing (before I retired last night) was no where near complete; it went on for a total of ~8+ hrs. The correct crossover is at 16:30 UTC, the magnetometer crossover was at ~17:00 UTC. Adjusted quake time = 21:00 Nov 22 ~ 01:30 Nov 23. Given the length of time of the "smearing", we could be looking at a 7 mag.

Rafael,


Well, I was right the first time. There was a crossover at the time I originally said (06:00~07:00 UTC Nov 22). Expected event time was Nov 22 12:00 ~ 16:00. I have been using a pretty conservative time frame; I am going to start giving the exact time in hours from a crossover, so we might even get it accurate down to the hour. (the 3 hr readings will still limit accuracy to a degree)

8~9 hrs after crossover:
2005/11/22 15:11:32.0 5.2S 145.3E 68 M 6.0 M NEIR EASTERN NEW GUINEA

5.6 2005/11/22 15:09:27 53.957 -164.126 47.8 UNIMAK ISLAND, ALASKA
5.5 2005/11/22 13:21:23 -60.535 -25.461 10.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS

6.5~7 hrs after 2nd crossover:
2005/11/22 23:27:24.0 8.9S 73.9W mb5.8 A GFZ PERU-BRAZIL BORDER


I think it's safe to say that smear "width" (over time) is not an indicator of magnitude. Before that I thought it might be the length of the vertical movement of the smear, but that wasn't it either. The next logical idea is gaps between the vertical lines of the smear. (judging the Sumatra pattern) Total energy is still a possiblity: 6.0 + 5.6 + 5.5


TRoc

Update:


00:01 UTC (through current 07:23 UTC) Nov 23 - GOES 10 >=2MeV "smear"
05:00~06:00 UTC Nov 23 - GOES 10/12 >=.6MeV & magnetometer "crossover"

Significant seismic activity predicted @ 11:00~15:00 UTC Nov 23


TRoc

Update:


Smear length: 00:01 UTC to 12:10 UTC Nov 23 ... 12+ hrs !

TWO additional crossovers:

#2 08:30 UTC Nov 23 GOES 10/12 >=.6MeV ; & magnetometer crossover
#3 14:30 UTC Nov 23 GOES 10/12 >=.6MeV ; & magnetometer crossover

Significant seismic activity #2 predicted @ 14:30~17:30 UTC Nov 23

Significant seismic activity #3 predicted @ 20:30~23:30 UTC Nov 23



TRoc

Follow up to last (2) posts:


There was no significant activity in the 11:00~15:00 UTC Nov 23
period. I think that was due to an error in the reading by myself. It was appearing to occur as I was "signing off", and I think I assumed too much.

In the next period (#2), 14:30~17:30 UTC Nov 23, we have this activity:
11/23 17:37:54 25.5S 70.6E 5.1 A GFZ MID-INDIAN RIDGE
11/23 17:37:50 25.2S 70.1E 33 5.1 M GSRC MID-INDIAN RIDGE
11/23 17:37:48 25.7S 73.1E 33G 5.2 A MIX MID-INDIAN RIDGE

The next period (#3), 20:30~23:30 UTC Nov 23, we have this activity:

11/23 19:31:36.9 39.7N 159.3E 30 A BUC N PACIFIC OCEAN
11/23 19:31:33.3 37.7N 157.9E mb6.2 M MAD N PACIFIC OCEAN

11/23 19:32:25.4 46.4N 149.8E 30 mb5.8 A ZAMG KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
11/23 19:32:34.2 49.6N 150.9E 10 mb5.9 A SED NW. KURIL ISLANDS
11/23 19:32:40.1 49.6N 151.4E 33 mb6.1 A NOR NW. KURIL ISLANDS
11/23 19:32:40.1 49.6N 151.4E 33 mb6.1 A NOR NW. KURIL ISLANDS

11/23 19:35:22.0 53.7N 145.0E 30 mb5.5 A ODC SEA OKHOTSK
11/23 19:35:07.0 52.2N 146.3E mb5.8 A BRA SEA OF OKHOTSK

11/23 22:35:47.9 3.0N 132.4E 100 mb5.2 M GSRC W CAROLINE IS
11/23 22:35:41.0 3.0N 132.2E 33G mb5.5 A MIX W CAROLINE IS
11/23 22:35:38.0 3.0N 132.4E mb5.5 A GFZ W CAROLINE IS


We also had a magnetometer crossover at ~06:15 UTC, and 4.5 hrs later a vertical rise/spike. The electron flux had a crossover (GOES 10/12 >=2MeV), and a corresponding rise/spike @ ~10:45 UTC. Both readings lead to this:

11/24 10:46:44.6 24.2S 176.3W 100 mb6.2 M GSRC S OF FIJI ISLANDS
11/24 10:46:37.2 24.2S 176.4W 33G mb5.8 A MIX S OF FIJI ISLANDS
11/24 10:46:36.0 25.1S 179.1W 33 mb5.0 A NOR S OF FIJI ISLANDS
11/24 10:46:36.0 24.1S 176.3W mb6.1 A GFZ S OF FIJI ISLANDS
11/24 10:46:31.0 31.1S 176.5W 30 mb6.2 A ODC KERMADEC ISLANDS

Perhaps this is an aftershock pattern? It is essentially a "reverse" of the pattern we have been following, and with no "smear" (or at least of its' own; it "shared" the initial smear that led to the large energy burst of events). Then you get a crossover, followed by a spike AT the time of event. This was the pattern as I initially began to see it, following the 9.2 Aceh event; meaning that I was seeing an "aftershock" pattern of that event?


Current Update:

(no smear; possible aftershock?)
Magnetometer crossover at ~17:30 UTC Nov 24 followed by "separation" of direction of satellite readings. Electron flux crossover at ~16:30 UTC (& 12:00 UTC?)


TRoc

Follow up:


~7 to 8 hrs after crossover

11/25 00:23:16.0 38.0N 145.1E mb5.0 A GFZ E COAST HONSHU, JAPAN
11/25 00:28:21.0 37.9N 144.2E 33G mb5.7 A MIX E COAST HONSHU, JAPAN

There was also a spike concurrent with those events. (mag. and e.flux)


Note that the >=2MeV and the >=.6MeV readings are moving synchronous now.


Spike pattern: (both magnetometer & e.flux)

~21:00 to 22:00 UTC Nov 24 (smallest spike)

concurrent with

11/24 21:00:16.2 34.2N 25.8E 33 Ml4.6 M NRIA CRETE, GREECE
11/24 21:00:25.8 34.3N 25.7E 70 mb4.8 M. GSRC CRETE, GREECE
11/24 21:01:21.0 36.2N 20.8E 10 Ml4.5 A INGV CENT. MEDITERRANEAN SEA
11/24 21:25:02.3 34.2N 25.7E 22 Ml4.2 M NRIA CRETE, GREECE


~00:15 to 01:00 UTC Nov 25

concurrent with above quake off Japan


~04:30 to 05:30 UTC Nov 25

concurrent with

11/25 05:31:18.4 5.8N 126.4E 40 mb5.6 A MIX MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISL.
11/25 05:31:21.7 5.9N 126.4E 58 M 6.0 M NEIR MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISL.
11/25 05:49:33.0 32.8S 179.9W mb5.5 A GFZ SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISL.


~08:30 to 09:30 UTC Nov 25 (large spike, wide gap, highest flux)

concurrent with

11/25 09:23:23.6 5.1S 67.7E 33 mb5.8 A LDG CARLSBERG RIDGE
11/25 09:29:43.6 25.2S 175.0W 33 mb5.8 A NOR SOUTH OF TONGA ISL.
11/25 09:29:57.2 25.8S 177.9W 160 mb6.0 M GSRC SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
11/25 09:30:05.9 32.9N 28.4E 10 mb5.7 A SED EAST MEDITERRANEAN SEA
11/25 09:30:52.3 34.8N 24.2E 25 mb4.8 A NEWS CRETE, GREECE
11/25 09:30:58.1 35.1N 23.5E 35 M 5.4 M NEIR CRETE, GREECE
11/25 09:31:06.0 35.6N 22.3E 11 Ml5.5 M MSO CENT MEDITERRANEAN SEA
11/25 09:32:14.0 40.0N 19.0E Ml5.5 A! RNS ALBANIA
11/25 09:36:26.0 29.1N 164.5E 30 mb5.8 A ODC NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN


e.flux crossover ~15:00 UTC Nov 25
mag. crossover ~18:00 UTC Nov 25

~ 7 to 9 hrs later:

11/26 00:48:26.0 29.7N 115.8E mb5.6 A GFZ SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
11/26 00:49:51.4 30.9N 113.5E 33 mb5.4 A LDG SOUTHEASTERN CHINA

(with both magnetometer & e.flux spikes)



New period:

e.flux crossover ~09:00 UTC Nov 26
mag. crossover ~08:00 UTC Nov 26

predicted significant activity:

~14:00 to 18:00 UTC Nov 26



TRoc

Follow up:


11/26 15:56:55.3 38.25 N 38.85 E 5 mb5.2 TURKEY
11/26 16:02:38.7 52.60 N 159.38 E 10 mb5.5 OFF E. CST KAMCHATKA PEN.



TRoc

New data:


magnetometer crossover - ~17:00 UTC Noc 26
electron flux crossover - ~15:00 UTC Nov 26


predicted activity time:

21:00 UTC Nov 26 to 01:00 UTC Nov 27


TRoc

Follow up


11/27 02:11:56.0 20.8N 145.1E mb5.9 A BRA MARIANA ISLANDS



TRoc

Caltech has a slip history of mayor earthquakes which, for the sake of inckuding some images into the discussion, are worthy of note. The Tarapaca 7.8 Mw earthquake of june 13 2005 is reported at:

http://www.gps.caltech.edu/%7Ejichen/Earth...hile/chile.html

and its surface projection corresponds quite exactly with the Increased Activity Area for intermediate depth at the Seismicity Maps in :

http://rafaelperalta.blogspot.com/

Regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone !
Rafael

Rafael & others,


Activity levels have been high for the last 10 days. The pattern of TIME prediction has continued throughout this period, but I do not have the time to post all the data. It is important to look for a LOCATION precursor pattern.

I have found some research that has been done that is very similar; the main difference is the SINGLE "observer"(satellite) collecting the data, and that they only looked at 2 earthquakes. They are fairly sure of a connection, but (of course) want more money to continue studies.

Comparison of simultaneous variations of the ionospheric total electron content and geomagnetic field associated with strong earthquakes
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2001) 1: 53–59
European Geophysical Society 2001


Here is another interesting one: the only "hard science" that I've seen on animal behavioral changes preceding earthquakes.
Detection System of Environmental Electromagnetic Wave and Unusual Animal Behavior; Searching for Seismo-electromagnetic Signals (SEMS)
Hiroshi Asahara
Department of Earth and Space Science
Graduate School of Science, Osaka University


I am attempting to gather data on axis rotation/orbital position of the Sun and the Earth during major quakes of this year. As we come into the Solstice, the relative tilts of the two bodies are going to have a large impact. The electron flux are averaging very high levels, and wild shifts in magnetometer readings. Yesterday was another back to back m-flare (Kp=4+); reminder that we are in the MINIMUM period of the solar cycle.


TRoc

forgot one!

A good article in this months IEEE Spectrum Online, "Earthquake Alarm".

This is a good summary of all of the "new" science being studied to predict EQ's. Japan has been documenting lights, or a glow in the sky preceding EQ's since the 1960's. UC Stanford has documented ULF (<1Hz) disturbances before an EQ. Ames Research (NASA) has demonstrated in rock crushing experiments, that "holes" are produced that flow towards the surface of Earth, while the electrons flow towards the center and create changes in the magnetic field. Interestingly (for me), the charges moved at 300 m/s; this B field oscillations could bypass the outer ear, and directly generate a tone internally.

Also covered, Infra-Red radiations, air conductivity, and total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere. Taiwan monitored 144 EQ's between 1997-1999, and found that, for magnitudes of 6.0 or more, the TEC changed significantly from 1 to 6 days before the quake. While I have only 1 year of quakes studied, the pattern I have identified gives ~6 to 9 hour precursor time frame. VLF and HF radio signal strengths change their drop-off curve on the dawn of an EQ day. Lastly, GPS satellites experience "alterations in their behavior" which, when triangulated with another GPS, and a ground based receiver, allow monitoring of ionospheric changes.

That is my ray of hope: to triangulate our 2 GOES satellite signals with a "ground based" signal (the EQ itself), and using a 120 deg rotation (~8hr precursor) from signal to event, as well as coronal hole location relative to the Sun's equator (which hopefully will mirror the EQ latitude on Earth). I'll be busy for a while!


TRoc

Rafael,


I think I am making progress! The 1 yr. mark from the N. Sumatra quake is days away. Right now, a similarly large coronal hole (perhaps the same spot) is approaching "line up" with our planet. I am busy "crunching" numbers, and analyzing data; I hope to make a time AND location prediction for this event, which right now, looks to be on 12/26/05.

Here is a "light" version of my ideas, pulled from a recent post on this forum.


While, as of yet, this is only "circumstantial", here is my idea on why the increase in EQ's, volcano's, and temperature. It is rather complex, so I am just stating the simplified version. The Sun reverses its' polarity at the same time frame of the 11.1 yr solar cycle, and at the solar minimum (which we are now at). Normally, coronal holes, which generate HIGH speed solar wind streams, reside at the poles. Coronal holes don't last as long during solar maximums; I believe that this is because during the polarity shift (at the minimum), more holes move through the solar equator, and therefore, are directed at the Earth for longer periods. The solar wind that originates from the equatorial region move at much slower speeds; they are more "regular" in their effect on Earth. The low speed winds' B component does not seem to have "escape velocity", and the magnetic field lines they generate loop back into the Sun (flare-like). The high speed winds generate magnetic field lines that extend outward from the coronal holes; when they originate near the equator, they are aimed at the Earth.

(note: the following "causes" are all interrelated, even though I list them by affect)

SO, for temperature: The magnetosphere normally does a good job of shielding the Earth from UV radiation, and auroral energy input, however, the high speed solar winds from Earth pointing coronal holes can reduce the thickness of the magnetosphere from ~10 Earth radii to ~4 Earth radii - a VERY significant change. The additional energy heats up our atmosphere. The WHOLE time frame for this is 22 yrs, with a peak at ~11 yrs (1989 to 2010; peak in ~2000). Note that this effect is in addition to the reduction in Ozone protection, and the trapping of heat with "greenhouse" gases.

For earthquakes: The "normal" state of the Sun is with high speed winds leaving the polar regions and eventually catching up to the slower plasma generated near the equator. When this happens, you get "co rotating interaction regions" (CIR's); CIR's generate 2 shock waves, 1 forward, and 1 rearward. These shock-waves accelerate charged particles. So, when the solar winds originate in "irregular" locations, and more oriented towards the Earth, we get more energetic particles, and more shock-waves hitting us. Also, when these high speed winds reach the compressed magnetosphere, they experience drastic reduction in velocity, and generate solar wind termination shock; an even BETTER particle accelerator (and more shock waves), namely "braking" X-rays. My idea is that all of these things vibrate through the Earth, reflect off the core, and manifest in outward bound energy -- EQ's.

Volcano's: Also happening "now" (in years) is the Earth's processional tilt is reaching its' maximum, in terms of being the least parallel with the axis of the Sun. When the self generated field lines of these plasma bursts are anti-parallel to the Earths' field lines (and the interplanetary magnetic fields with the geomagnetic lines), the Earth and the Sun become coupled through "magnetic reconnection". The Earth then is most susceptible to the Sun's fluctuations. The charged particles, following B-field lines, are more absorbed by the core of the Earth, heating and expanding it. This would, presumably, cause an increase in volcanic eruptions (as well as EQ's, and higher ground temp).



TRoc

All,


I am going to make a trial run at a new method for LOCATION prediction,combined with a TIME from previously established method. There was a break in data that I need, I don't know if that was due to the holidays, or technical problems. Nonetheless, here goes.


Significant seismic activity predicted for :

DEC 28, 2005
15:00~19:00 UTC
15'S , 110'E
nearest fault: 10'S, 110'E
Mag >6.5


I haven't yet fully worked out a reliable magnitude indicator, or "pre-shocks". One idea shows this could be near the strength of the 12-26-04 Sumatra quake, but a definite pattern hasn't been worked out.


TRoc

Copy of above post.


Significant seismic activity predicted for :

DEC 28, 2005
15:00~19:00 UTC
15'S , 110'E
nearest fault: 10'S, 110'E
Mag >6.5


TRoc

Report:

2005/12/29 14:56 10.44 S 112.05 E 82 M 4.5 SOUTH OF JAWA, INDONESIA


While determining magnitude remains illusive, I am happy with the results, especially given the tech. problems with the GOES 12 satellite during the time of the coronal line up.

There are still things to be worked out, and combinations of Solar events that I will not be familiar with. I have still only worked out the new “location” method on a handful of previous quakes. The similarity (at the beginning) to the coronal line up prior to the 2004 Sumatra quake was too close to pass by a “practice” run. The similarities ended when a small cluster of flares came into view immediately after the coronal hole crossed “0/0”. The velocity differences of these events create CIR’s, which would, theoretically, slow down the wind gust from the hole, and reduce the compacting of our magnetosphere. There are some challenges, such as lack of available data, that can not produce the accuracy I believe can be done.

The bigger picture is also becoming clearer. The “cross section” area was certainly more active both prior to, and after the peak probability that was predicted. Rafael, if you are able to “share”, I think that your work regarding “clusters”, and predictive direction of energy would be very helpful to complete the picture.


2005/12/28 09:45:59.5 36.31 N 139.78 E 10 mb4.9 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/12/28 12:21:46.2 19.82 S 68.89 W 10 mb5.3 CHILE-BOLIVIA BORDER
2005/12/28 15:42:13.3 43.72 N 144.36 E 200 mb4.8 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN
2005/12/28 15:27:51.0 9.85 N 84.30 W 49 mb5.3 COSTA RICA
2005/12/28 22:04:35.2 34.89 N 73.34 E 60 mb5.1 PAKISTAN

2005/12/29 10:36:40 1.18 N 97.13 E 30G M 4.7 N. SUMATERA, INDONESIA
2005/12/29 10:08:20 6.00 S 148.27 E 44 M 4.6 NEW BRITAIN
2005/12/29 09:49:54 4.70 S 139.49 E 10G M 4.8 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA
2005/12/29 08:30:33 27.33 N 139.86 E 475 mb5.2 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN
2005/12/29 07:41:53 0.08 S 124.89 E 100 mb4.9 MINAHASSA PENIN, SULAWESI
2005/12/29 07:21:02.0 24.99 N 96.28 E 80 mb5.0 MYANMAR
2005/12/29 05:18:36.5 6.06 S 151.66 E 60 mb5.2 NEW BRITAIN

2005/12/30 00:47:04.3 20.20 S 178.14 W 500 mb4.8 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2005/12/30 11:13:41.2 36.56 N 70.66 E 170 mb4.4 HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN
2005/12/30 11:23:45.4 12.23 S 167.33 E 33 mb5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISL.
2005/12/30 11:40:21.6 10.23 S 78.22 W 55 M 4.5 NEAR COAST OF PERU
2005/12/30 14:19:22.6 10.59 S 66.39 E 33 mb5.0 MID-INDIAN RIDGE
2005/12/30 21:14:50.9 32.15 N 141.92 E 33 mb5.2 S.E.OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2005/12/30 18:26:41.0 7.46 N 82.39 W 2 mb5.8 SOUTH OF PANAMA


The pair of flares that I believe are responsible for slowing down the wind generated by the coronal can be said to have been predictive of the following cluster, and main events. I did not want to attempt a second “practice” run until I had thoroughly analyzed the first.

2005/12/31 10:22:25.6 25.12 N 141.08 E 33 mb4.8 VOLCANO ISL., JAPAN REG
2005/12/31 09:29:29.3 27.21 S 176.60 W 60f mb5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS REG
2005/12/31 12:14:06.4 29.79 S 71.83 W 60 mb5.1 COAST OF CENT. CHILE
2005/12/31 17:16:24.0 2.57 S 138.96 E 60 mb5.1 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA

2006/01/01 09:43:04.9 11.77 N 71.10 W 5 mb5.3 COAST OF VENEZUELA
2006/01/01 08:47:13.5 4.85 N 95.14 E 60 mb5.8 N. SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2006/01/01 08:45:42.2 38.80 N 26.78 E 28 MD3.0 AEGEAN SEA
2006/01/01 07:11:59.8 32.13 N 139.81 E 5 mb5.4 S.E. OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2006/01/01 19:32:24.5 7.01 S 129.26 E 30 mb5.3 BANDA SEA
2006/01/01 18:35:06.7 36.27 N 71.70 E 100 mb4.7 AFGHANISTAN-TAJIKISTAN

2006/01/02 01:01:25.6 12.86 N 144.18 E 40f mb5.7 S. OF MARIANA ISLANDS
*2006/01/02 06:10:52.4 61.05 S 21.82 W 33 Mw7.3 SW ATLANTIC OCEAN*
2006/01/02 04:05:00.4 21.49 S 179.48 W 600 mb5.7 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2006/01/02 08:18:38.6 15.26 S 167.22 E 33 mb5.6 VANUATU ISLANDS
2006/01/02 12:01:49.1 4.91 S 152.32 E 100 mb5.3 NEW BRITAIN
*2006/01/02 22:13:35 19.78 S 178.17 W 520 Mw7.1 FIJI ISLANDS REG*
2006/01/02 23:46:45.0 19.45 S 176.65 W 33 mb5.5 FIJI ISLANDS REGION

2006/01/03 00:39:46.7 20.18 S 178.78 W 33 mb5.6 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2006/01/03 01:10:52.1 29.14 N 139.40 E 418 mb4.9 S.E. OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2006/01/03 04:25:21.1 19.18 S 178.27 W 500 mb4.9 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
2006/01/03 06:09:12.0 18.65 N 145.42 E 221 mb5.2 MARIANA ISLANDS
2006/01/03 12:27:58.3 13.92 N 145.25 E 81 M 5.8 MARIANA ISLANDS
2006/01/03 12:26:05.7 42.31 N 142.24 E 49 mb5.1 HOKKAIDO,JAPAN,REGION


TRoc

All,


Sorry, but I didn't have enough time to do the work prior to the last event group. I did, however, make some more progress, and found some more real-time sites that have new and important data. This is a work in progress.

I had mentioned an "opening of the window" time at 22:00 on 1/10, and that did play out. The next one is "on the way".

Actually, now that I look at the EMSC site, it has already begun.

The Solar activity is, unfortunately, another complex group of flares surrounding the coronal hole. This makes prediction much harder because it changes the wind speed. Really, I only feel confident about lone coronal holes OR flares. The good news is that I have found several new sites, and satellites for new data. I think (after a lot of study) that these will be very helpful. For now, I am going to generalize what I can.

Start of group: (already occurred)

2006/01/14 23:13:26.9 14.19 N 145.14 E 33 mb5.3 MARIANA ISLANDS
2006/01/15 03:04:23.9 23.45 S 179.61 W 304 mb5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

Most likely "center" of group:

Jan. 15, 2006
~12:00 UTC
36 N , 23 E

End of (coronal) group:

~16:00
40 N , 125 W


With 2 "wild cards" (flare related)
Not enough data to make a prediction. One looks to be in the higher northerly latitudes.. ~50 N (Bering Sea?), the other, a day later and far south.. ~55 S.

Overall, this group should not be as numerous as the last, but the flares could cause some higher magnitudes.


TRoc

Addendum:


Flare (1/13-14/06 group) related activity predicted:

Jan 16, 2006
~22:00
06 N , 165 E

Jan 19, 2006
~05:00
12 S , 105 E


Also in the time frame of 18th, 19th
CIR activity: 30-45 S , ? ~165 E - 135 W ?


TRoc

Report:


First, I should point out the increase in difficulty of the predictions I am making, trying to do much more than what I have been doing (just a time for “significant activity").

Identifying the “group” over a period of time, which is by far the easiest of “when, where, and how strong”, I estimated a beginning, middle, and end TIME frame for the seismic energy.

These 3 earthquakes stand out primarily by the fact that they are the ONLY deep quakes near the “window” I predicted; specifically centered at ~12:00 UTC, and ending ~16:00 UTC (I was not available to catch the beginning).

2006/01/15 03:04 23.45 S 179.61 W 304 mb5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
2006/01/15 11:58 7.73 S 122.44 E 200 mb6.1 FLORES SEA
2006/01/16 15:03 30.12 N 138.86 E 400 mb4.8 SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

I am very happy with the TIME dispersal of this energy arriving as predicted. [12 hrs = half phase of energy wave]

As far as locations, the center event did align well, but 12 hrs after:
2006/01/15 23:24 36.55 N 28.63 E 12 MD3.1 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

The end location was very good on time and location:
2006/01/16 15:11 40.29 N 124.62 W 1.9 2.7 OFFSHORE NORTH CALIFORNIA


The “wildcards” were really just to include the other possibilities that seemed to be indicated, but I didn’t feel that enough data was there for a full prediction. The “~50 N” (Bering St) following the others:
2006/01/17 01:22 51.63 N 175.13 W 25.0 2.9 ANDREANOF IS, ALEUTIAN IS.,
ALASKA
2006/01/17 01:42 60.34 -153.10 140.0 3.4 SOUTHERN ALASKA

I will report on the other “wildcard” as well as the second (Jan 19, 2006 ~05:00 12 S , 105 E) on the addendum, later. The first one on the addendum, “Jan 16, 2006 ~22:00 06 N , 165 E” was possibly a mistake. It could be this deep quake: 2006/01/17 14:35 4.32 N 124.88 E 300 mb4.6 CELEBES SEA, and an error it time of ~16 hrs. I made the addendum initially because I was expecting something in that area. I had failed to see these 2 quakes earlier in the day, that accounted for the expected energy from the main “group”.
2006/01/16 00:42 14.60 S 173.05 W 80f mb5.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
2006/01/16 10:55 16.15 S 178.02 E 33 mb4.9 FIJI ISLANDS


Links to Sources:

1 : Goes 12 X-Ray Imager
2 : Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) / Rice University
3 : ACE / Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center
4 : Current Solar Data (from NOAA)

Earthquake Listings:

1 : EMSC
2 : USGS


TRoc

Report (continued):


Remaining predictions for 1/14 - 1/15 06 Solar activity:

*these predictions were not worded as precise as I would want them to be, but the results are in agreement with the theory, and will require a satellite somewhere closer to the mid point between Earth and Sun. The ACE satellite is at the first Lagrange point for Earth, and reports on data that is already "old". The changes in speed due to CIR's will have to be measured closer to their origination, and then combined (by computer) with the L1 data to produce highly accurate predictions, especially for the 4th day reactions by Earth. There is too much going on in the 1.439e^8 km, and 96+ hrs of travel the energy is making for me to calculate by hand, based on data from the L1 point.


I stated ".. 2 "wild cards" ..one in the higher northerly latitudes.. ~50 N (Bering Sea?), the other, a day later and far south.. ~55 S.

Results:
2006/01/17 01:22 51.63 N 175.13 W 25.0 2.9 ANDREANOF/ALEUTIAN IS. AK.
2006/01/18 23:43 36.13 S 100.36 W 33 mb5.1 SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

I tried to add & refine the "wildcards" on Jan 16th:

Jan 19, 2006 ~05:00 12 S , 105 E

Results:
2006/01/19 05:37 15.95 S 173.94 W 80 mb5.2 TONGA SLANDS
2006/01/19 05:06 5.29 S 150.95 E 100 mb4.7 NEW BRITAIN

Also in the time frame of 18th, 19th
CIR activity: 30-45 S , ? ~165 E - 135 W ?

Results (general):
2006/01/18 23:43 36.13 S 100.36 W 33 mb5.1 SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN
2006/01/19 05:37 15.95 S 173.94 W 80 mb5.2 TONGA ISLANDS
2006/01/19 05:06 5.29 S 150.95 E 100 mb4.7 NEW BRITAIN


Finally, I am still working on "reconnection" of the "tail" / dark side energies, but there is not too much to work with. It is worth pointing out, however, that the reconnection represent the start of closure of the event. With that in mind, the following EQ's are significant. (depth of final "return" group)

2006/01/18 14:03 7.21 S 122.69 E 586 mb5.3 FLORES SEA
2006/01/18 18:59 17.09 N 94.05 W 100 mb5.2 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
2006/01/18 21:53 43.84 N 144.63 E 152 mb4.4 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN, REGION

as well as
2006/01/18 11:10 49.22 N 152.04 E 250 mb4.6 NW. KURIL ISLANDS, RUSSIA
2006/01/18 09:38 36.34 N 70.76 E 200 mb4.9 HINDU KUSH, AFGHANISTAN, REG
2006/01/20 07:01 0.15 N 124.23 E 169 mb5.1 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI

and finally, the "period" at the end of the statement: (the energy waves change direction, and head back through Earth, towards the Sun)

2006/01/20 10:40 36.97 N 28.30 E 10 mb4.3 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

2006/01/20 17:51 22.54 S 173.69 E 33f mb5.5 SE.OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
2006/01/20 20:26 6.08 S 113.18 E 600 mb5.1 JAWA, INDONESIA


TRoc

The next Solar related EQ group estimated to be here ~23 to 27 Jan.

Prediction / Earthquake Warning:

Heightened seismic activity during period from Jan 23 to Jan 25 2006 (+ 27 to 30th)


Coronal hole group: (elongated / non circular)

Jan 23 2006 ~15:00 UTC 12 N 45 W
Jan 23 2006 ~20:00 UTC 05 N 120 W
Jan 24 2006 ~16:00 UTC 18 N 150 W
Jan 25 2006 ~07:00 UTC 10 N 80 E


Solar flare group: (deep)

Begin -- Jan 25 2006 ~14:00 UTC ? 01 S 30 W ?
Center - Jan 25 2006 ~22:00 UTC 16 S 150 W
End --- Jan 26 2006 ~07:00 UTC ? 08 N 140 E ?


Reconnection related activity is still being worked out. Symmetry seems to play a large role, and magnitudes tend to be slightly higher than the solar flare group preceding it.

Reconnection period: Jan 27 to Jan 29 2006
Similar locations (pre / after shocks), deep



TRoc

Prediction / Earthquake Warning:

Heightened seismic activity during period from Jan 23 to Jan 25 2006 (+ 27 to 30th)

Jan 23 2006 ~15:00 UTC 12 N 45 W
Jan 23 2006 ~20:00 UTC 05 N 120 W
Jan 24 2006 ~16:00 UTC 18 N 150 W
Jan 25 2006 ~07:00 UTC 10 N 80 E

Begin -- Jan 25 2006 ~14:00 UTC ? 01 S 30 W ?
Center - Jan 25 2006 ~22:00 UTC 16 S 150 W
End --- Jan 26 2006 ~07:00 UTC ? 08 N 140 E ?

Reconnection period: Jan 27 to Jan 29 2006
Similar locations (pre / after shocks), deep

Report for Jan 23, 24 predictions:


The "heightened activity" started right off:

2006/01/23 06:02 17.43 S 167.78 E 40 Mw6.2 VANUATU ISLANDS

and a very deep quake:

2006/01/23 13:16 25.19 S 178.18 E 563 mb5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS

happened very near the predicted time "Jan 23 2006 ~15:00 UTC 12 N 45 W

although the estimated location was better matched by this one:

2006/01/23 20:50 6.86 N 77.80 W 10 Mw6.2 NEAR W. COAST OF COLOMBIA
and
2006/01/23 23:46 8.88 N 70.08 W 20 mb4.7 VENEZUELA
2006/01/24 02:15 6.89 N 77.70 W 30 mb5.4 NEAR W. COAST OF COLOMBIA

all just 2 hrs (30deg) further in rotation (W), and several hrs later than predicted.

For this prediction: Jan 23 2006 ~20:00 UTC 05 N 120 W

2006/01/23 14:19 6.64 N 126.61 E 60 mb5.2 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

that was 8 hrs (120 deg) past time and location. 8 hrs represents an 8.6% error in estimation of solar wind speed, which is not measured until the end of its' journey.

For this prediction: Jan 24 2006 ~16:00 UTC 18 N 150 W

4.7 2006/01/24 13:17 23.60 S 178.03 E 334.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
4.4 2006/01/24 10:30 23.61 S 179.49 E 401.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

which was very close for time and location, but further south.


All in all, not too bad. I am still refining my technique, and am able to learn from the errors. When I am getting the accuracy that I believe can be achieved "by hand", I will post the theory. There exists, right NOW, technology to determine amplitude of impending quakes, IF they know where to put the sensors. I think that even as is, this approach is defining that parameter well enough.

I will report on the rest of the predicted group in 2 days.


TRoc

Report for Jan 25, 26 2006 predictions:


The last of the coronal hole group was predicted for:
Jan 25 2006 ~07:00 UTC 10 N 80 E

and an earthquake occured on:
01/25 08:07 35.76 N 69.95 E 60f mb4.6 HINDU KUSH - AFGHANISTAN


The flare group was predicted for:
Jan 25 2006 ~14:00 UTC ? 01 S 30 W ?

Jan 25 2006 ~22:00 UTC 16 S 150 W

Jan 26 2006 ~07:00 UTC ? 08 N 140 E ?

and earthquakes occured on:
01/25 13:56 0.76 S 124.04 E 119 mb4.8 MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI

01/25 21:55 21.83 S 174.46 W 33 mb5.1 TONGA ISLANDS

01/26 15:10 25.62 N 122.06 E 33 mb4.9 TAIWAN REGION


the deep quake for the period:
01/26 14:04:37.9 15.17 S 175.08 W 262 mb4.6 TONGA ISLANDS

reconnection postulate: (as of 02:00 UTC Jan 27)
IMF = solar bound (interplanetary magnetic field reversal)
SW speed = 650,000 km/s (HIGH); SW density & pressure LOW (sun side)
Geomagnetic field conditions: STORM
Solar X-Rays: NORMAL

All indicating energy is now coming from the"dark side".


TRoc

Hi TRoc

Don't know if you have seen this page at USGS. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/world.html

It shows earthquakes between 1990 and 2000 as a function of depth for the world.

Thanks Montec,

I hadn't seen that one; Rafael is working on some charts that are much more comprehensive. I'm not sure if he will be able to post here though.

One thing to note: the overwhelming majority of the deep quakes show to have occurred near the equator. Combine this with the same fact for magnitude, and the lack of quakes at the poles, and you can see the "circumstantial" evidence for earthquakes being "energised" by the Sun.


The reconnection looks to be over. The Sun is "quiet"; the magnetosphere is symmetrical, solar wind speed slow, electron flux steady, IMF has returned towards the Earth again.

There should not be much significant earthquake activity for the next few days.
(worldwide)


TRoc

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, shows global seismicity is now entering the Big Earthquake threshold. Most likely zones to be affected are:
Alaska/Kamtchaka
Tonga/Fiji
Mexico/Caribbean
Himalaya/Anatolia
Regards,

Solar Energy Input:

We will have several days of elevated seismic activity.

Most likely along equatorial regions; Mexico/Caribbean, as Rafael said.
(I'm not gong to take the time to calculate time and positions; I don't feel there will be a large event this time around)


TRoc

Here follows some information on the "what's" and "why's" of Statisitcal Analysis and Earthquake Prediction.

"El estudio estadístico también nos señala que: < cualquiera que sea el rango de magnitud, durante un período relativo de tiempo, siempre habrá lapsos de inactividad sísmica y lapsos de intensa actividad sísmica > en otras palabras, los eventos sísmicos parecen venir en oleadas que se intercalan con períodos de quietud sísmica." (From Tectonica de Placas, 2002 by the author)

It says that "< whatever the magnitude range, during a relative period of time, there will always be periods of seismic quiescense (inactivity) and periods of increased activity> in other words, seismic events seem to come in waves which altenate with periods of seismic quiescense."

As the cycle of Big earthquakes (one every year) gets closer (last B.E. March 28th 2005) one could expect activity to calm down before the next wave of increased activity. [QUOTE] (TROC)"The reconnection looks to be over. The Sun is "quiet"; the magnetosphere is symmetrical, solar wind speed slow, electron flux steady, IMF has returned towards the Earth again.

There should not be much significant earthquake activity for the next few days.
(worldwide)" (Jan 30th)"

So, Troc has some significant solar data which predicts seismic quiescense in the next few days, I agree with that and issue the Statistical analysis warning that
"global seismicity is now entering the Big Earthquake threshold."(Jan 31st) Now, a Big Earthquake threshold should last for up to several months, and it should show as alternate periods of increased and decreased activity. And it looks as we have a seismic quiescense going on:

Global statistics show an average of some 140 earthquakes of magnitude > 6.0 or about one > 6.0 event every two or three days, in fact 15 of them in between Jan 02 and Feb 03 ( of which three are > 7.0) and NO EVENTS > 6.0 IN BETWEEN FEB 03 AND FEB 12th, If you look at global earthquakes at NEIC

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent.../quakes_all.php

you will see that even earthquakes > 5.0 have got lesser magnitudes since Feb 08.

Now TROC issues a:
" Solar Energy Input:

We will have several days of elevated seismic activity."

and so we will only have to wait and see, how in the next week or so activity will increase in magnitude, maybe decrease and increase again, until a Major or Big earthquake takes place...
Regards,

Rafael,

I agree with your last post. Just wanted to mention that when I said "We will have several days of elevated seismic activity," I mean in comparison to the last 3 weeks (which won't take much!). That is why I said "I don't feel there will be a large event this time around". The Sun is more "quiet" than in any other period for the last year. There was some small activity on the 9th, which indicates a period from the 11th through the 14th (with an outside chance for reconnection activity the 15th & 16th, but I don't think the "back door" will be open )


Chabela compadre,


T.Roc

T.roc, OK, thanks for clarification.
Still, it is now 10 days without an earthquake > 6.0 magnitude. It is not so unusual, I've seen 12 days a couple of years ago, also I've seen 8 days, one event, then 7 days last month. Let's see how much it holds on and how does it let go. I would appreciate you keep us posted on solar windows as the events unfold.
Regards,
Rafael

Rafael,


Just an update: the satelite (goes 12 x-ray imager) has been down since 2/12/06, and I don't have enough data to give advance information right now.


We did get a little "pick up" in frequency & magnitude for the previous time I mentioned.


T.Roc

Troc, I saw your posts, and thought I'd show you a guy name Kevin Martin's website. He has a copyright on his predictio method with the ACE satellite data since 2003. Thought you might wanna ask him about stuff, or talk with him on the subject. His website is----

www.ontarioweatherservice.com/cigs.html

Very good at what he does, and I think even will be making headline news soon. Talked with him about his copyrighted prediction method, and he said the media is gaining on him for a story. He has yet to release one because of waiting for a full 3 years on this. Cya

John

Socalpredict,


I checked out that site.

There is a common data point at the ACE satellite, and then..
completely different.

I don't have anything too positive to say, so I will make this short.

Statistically, this is not predictive. A meteorologists' level, at best.

He works in the media, but "the media is closing in on him"?

We are not just trying to predict any Earthquake, we are trying to predict CATASTROPHIC EQ's; if you can't do that, "copyrights" & such are premature.

He is on the right track, but the math / physics is not going to support his view.


T.Roc

lol Funny you mention at Meteorology Level at best. He is a Meteorologist in profession it seems, and a Tornado Chaser.

John

Socalpredict,


Yes, that was intentional. I did say I read his site (all of it). I realize my post, while trying to be "nice", probably came across not too__. The part, after seeing he was a 21 (18)yr old tv weatherman from L.A., that got me was the topless, self described "toughest picture of my self" that he included. Hard to take him seriously.


T.Roc

ps. In his defense though, at least (at 18) he noticed the pattern / correlation between the satellite data and earthquakes. I have often wondered how no one who works with these satellites daily ever saw that.

Rafael,


While there is no data for accurate locations, we are in "an open window" period now. I'm not very certain of the magnetic reconnection postulate, but the IMF is pointing at the Sun right now, electron flux & magnetometer readings are elevated, SW speed and temp are up, and alfven & sound wave velocities are up.

An elevated period for sure, but possibly the right conditions for larger magnitudes as well. The very recent ~5+ mags in Alaska & S. Mexico/ Nicaragua & Honduras could be pre-cursors to your estimated "next big one".


T.Roc

All,


The "open window" let in a few >6, including a >7 for the period.


Finally, the Earth has "regained control" of the IMF. It seems there may have been some "outside influence" (not the Sun) that extended that time frame.

There is calm conditions in the Earth/Sun relations.

A few days of light activity to follow.


T.Roc

All,


Well, the window never completely closed. There was some energy during the gap in time that the satellite was down, as well as some energy from gamma/xray events elsewhere. The IMF never totally settled back down.


At any rate, the window is opening again, this time fully.

There will be (at this point) a week of significant activity: March 3rd to 11th.


Also wanted to include a recent abstract:

"GEOPHYSICS: There and Back Again
Joanne Baker
As waves produced by earthquakes reverberate through the solid Earth, they can be reflected or scattered from discontinuities within and between the mantle and core. Changes in the composition and temperature of mantle minerals can cause the waves to speed up, slow down, or bend and even reverse their paths. By monitoring earthquakes occurring within 10° of a seismic receiver array in Alaska, Tkalčić et al. have spotted a new phase of seismic pressure wave. These waves appeared to travel directly through the center of the Earth and inner core, and bounced back after scattering off the underside of a discontinuity in the upper mantle, 150 to 220 km below Antarctica. Because these waves were back-scattered just below the surface, they arrived at the receiver about a minute ahead of similar waves reflected from the antipodal surface itself; hence the authors termed them P′P′ near-podal precursors. The scatterers could be lenses of partiall! y melted minerals or could comprise local concentrations of material different in composition than the rest of the upper mantle. -- JB

Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, 10.1029/2005GL024626 (2006)."

These type of waves could easily be mistaken for "Earth generated" by/from the core. They would logically form from 90 degree interactions with energy from "space".


T.Roc

Could all the mine explosions be linked in a similar way? To the earth changes leading up to earthquakes, or the IMF, and whatever it is that makes my ears ring?

Mine explosions happen all the time. That's why people don't like working in them. It would be even worse, though, if the mine sits on a faultline.

There's a faultline near the Mississippi on the boot hill of Missouri, and it's supposed to burst any moment now. I'm sure when it does I'll feel it, as well as a s*** load of miners when it causes the mines near it to collapse. It's supposed to be about as big as the one that shifted the path of the Mississippi and ate Medrid.

Maybe you should try sticking your ear to the ground and see if you can hear an earthquake creeping up.

THEY,


I don't think that all the mine explosions are linked. They are too small, and sporadic to have an effect. They do show up on EQ monitors.

The >1 frequencies are not usually produced by sudden explosions, they need some time to develop. These are the levels that could have the right velocity ratio to trigger magnetic fluctuations that create the sensation of sound, or tones.

You are having a lot of small quakes in the Pacific Northwest, including volcanic. That, or the few off the west coast and Mexico could be the culprits.

The IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) is dominated by the Sun. We have our own field that is usually doing its' own thing, and extends out in a protective shield. I believe that the interplay of these fields creates the Schuman resonances of the Earth, and is therefore the "fundamental" frequency of Earth. When the accelerated energy that has passed the Earth "reconnects" (meaning that the broken magnetic lines that were held apart by the plasma from the sun "cool down" & come back together, they are accelerated again, back towards the Sun) I am postulating that when we are getting current blasts from alfven waves in the plasma from the Sun, AND from the far (dark) side, we get "pinched", and get >7 mag. quakes. (as well as from large direct blasts)


T.Roc

hi. is there any truth to the story concerning the planetary wobble being altered? don't know whether to trust the following website, but here it is - the whole enchilada -
http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmoni...ble_anomaly.htm

Hi Joe,

It would seem that there is some disturbance in the chandler wobble in recent years. That was quite an enchilada, indeed. Too much to comment on here.



Rafael & other readers,


The last active period was followed by another, and yet more are on the way. The 6.8 mag quake on the 14th did seem to fit the "pinching" idea: that the second wave hit the Earth from the Sun side at the same time that the energy that passed the Earth from the first wave reconnected, and hit the Earth from the far (dark) side.

Just as a rough estimate, this next wave of energy should be hitting Earth starting the 17th of March, and lasting for several days. On around the 18th, there is the peak probability of being hit by energy from opposite directions.

There is also a large flare coming right behind the next coronal hole; this could lead to a "pinch" around the 23rd or 24th. It is a little too early to tell right now.


It is much harder to access past data from the ACE satellite via Rice University. If anyone knows a convenient source for this, please reply.


http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/justdials.html


T.Roc

Troc, All,

It seems that while we were going on about naked torso photo and mine explosions, the whole world was unaware that on March 05 an 8.5magnitude (Big earthquake) took place in the northern territories, that is North East ALASKA.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/

2006/03/05 20:31:51 64.90N 129.19W 3 8.5 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA

Also, two articles appeared in space/earth news that have something to do with Troc's method, one about the unseen side of the solar globe,

http://www.physorg.com/news11434.html

and therefore being able to predict violent solar cycles, which are coming.

On the seimicity maps, It can be noted that the recent major earthquakes in Africa are being preceded, and followed, by increased activity at:
MID ATLANTIC RIDGE (south and north from the equator)
One could almost say that the energy path going west from the Sumatra- Pakistan-Anatolia, reached the atlantic ridge and spreaded both north and south. Activity is also showing at the Indian ridge and Antartic ridges. The Pacific ridge as usual shows activity, is the other ridges which are now being affected.
As stated before, the energy path going east from Sumatra, has split into one wave moving towards south america via Java-Tonga, the other, north via Japan-Aleutians towards Alaska.
Heavy Volcanic activity is also on the news...

With regards from the Nazca Plate SubductionZone.

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/images/valve/counts/Augustine.png

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/index_images/aug.jpg

All,
Please note the two images above. The top one shows seismicity around the Augustine volcano. You will see how a rising seismicity lasts for some 6 months until it stops in the first week of February. Current Level of Concern Color Code: ORANGE (turned orange from yellow on February 1st) Second image is a current photo of the volcano in all its beauty. The seismicity aquiescence is over a month long and during this period of time the 8.5 magnitude Big earthquake took place some 1200 kms to the north-east.
Augustine Volcano is situated at 59.3 lat, -153.4 long.
Seismicity in the Alaska Area for the last 15 months, below:

FILE CREATED: Sat Mar 18 20:44:34 2006
Geographic Grid Search Earthquakes= 20
Latitude: 90.000N - 50.000N
Longitude: 120.000W - 160.000W
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 2005 - 2006 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 03/Day: 18
Magnitude Range: 5.0 - 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS

PDE 2005 02 03 153608.55 50.28 -129.83 10 5.00 MwPGC .. M .......
PDE 2005 02 07 062332 51.24 -131.15 10 5.20 MwPGC .. M .......
PDE 2005 02 11 210023.05 60.10 -139.34 15 5.50 MwGS 4F M .......
PDE 2005 02 11 212933.71 60.11 -139.35 11 5.10 MLPMR 4F M .......
PDE 2005 02 16 183523.50 61.33 -149.85 34 5.00 MLPMR 4F M .......
PDE-W 2005 04 06 175137.86 61.45 -146.52 16 5.00 mb GS 4F . .......
PDE-W 2005 04 09 151627.89 56.17 -154.52 14 6.00 MwGS 2F M .......
PDE-W 2005 05 19 011229.57 60.02 -152.69 95 5.50 MwGS 4F M ....... volcano
PDE-W 2005 06 09 140049.90 51.55 -131.12 10 5.80 MwGS .. M .......
PDE-W 2005 08 30 042403.83 63.10 -143.58 6 5.00 mb GS 4F . .......
PDE-W 2005 09 24 075456 64.47 -134.36 10 5.50 MLPGC .F . .......
PDE-W 2005 10 13 192409 57.57 -154.29 51 5.00 mb GS .F . ....... near volc.
PDE-W 2006 01 07 185538.83 56.32 -157.40 59 5.40 mb GS 4F . .......
PDE-Q 2006 02 05 081701.37 66.30 -142.69 9 5.50 MwGS .F M .......
PDE-Q 2006 02 05 161517.76 59.39 -151.75 47 5.30 MLPMR 5F . .......near volc.
PDE-Q 2006 02 05 164332.33 66.32 -142.55 1 5.20 MLAEIC .F . .......
PDE-Q 2006 02 20 013958 69.73 -145.81 5 5.00 MLAEIC .. . .......
PDE-Q 2006 03 03 231134 59.78 -153.04 99 5.00 mbAEIC .. . ....... volcano
PDE-Q 2006 03 05 104215.42 64.95 -129.13 5 5.60 MwGS .. M .......precursor
PDE-Q 2006 03 05 203151 64.90 -129.20 3 8.50 MwPGC .. M .......

Regards from the NPSZ!

Rafael, All..


If I "missed" that 8.5, it wasn't from lack of looking. I think you have got a hold of a USGS "typo", or something. (remember several times you helped me by saying don't rely soley on USGS?)


From:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/historical.php

Historic Worldwide Earthquakes - Sorted by Date

• 2006 03 14 - Seram, Indonesia - Magnitude 6.7
• 2006 02 26 - South of the Fiji Islands - Magnitude 6.4
• 2006 02 22 - Mozambique - Magnitude 7.0

(no 8.5)


From: http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/recent/recen...nadian_eq_e.php

2006/03/05 20:31:51 64.90N 129.20W 10.0G 3.8MW PGC MACKENZIE MOUNTAINS, N.W.T.


From: http://www.pgc.nrcan.gc.ca/seismo/table.htm

March 5, 02:42am PST (3:42am MST): A magnitude 5.8 earthquake occurred about 120km west of Norman Wells, Northwest Territories. (no mention of an 8.5)


From: http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=cu...in_mag=5&view=4

2006-03-05 10:42 64.95N 129.14W 10 Mw5.6 NWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA


That doesn't take anything away from your point of the pre volcanic activity.


As of yet, no large quake has happened as I thought on ~18th (I would accept something the 19th), but take a look at this:

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_satenv.gif?

Things are really active out there! There was this one:

2006-03-19 04:36 13.55 S 172.37 E 60 f Mw 5.8 VANUATU ISLANDS REGION

but I was thinking that a >6 (near 7) would be produced by that energy.


T.Roc

All,


I can't resist the extra work of another prediction, because of an ominous shaped coronal hole, and a flare right behind it.


Increased activity period:

March 20th, 2006
13:00 to 19:00 UTC

Likely areas:

15W 5S
60W 10N
105W 17N

And:

March 22nd, 2006
07:00 to 13:00 UTC

Likely areas:

105E 11S
67E 5S
30E 5N


T.Roc

(no editing of unregistered posts)

Hello T.Roc,


I continue to contemplate the interesting link you shared about bubble formation and cavitation as internal workings of magma and mantle shifting that could be predictors of an impending earthquake. Been working on an experiment that-requires validation from others at this juncture- I believe to show a direct relationship between the Sun, Moon,Earth and localized static electric fields. We are seeing some significant confirmations near the Full Moon phase that may be showing gravitomagnetism in operation from Sun-Moon position and their gravitational pull.

If this experiment is confirmed by others and more research in this area is conducted, my thought is that disturbances in localized static electric fields may also be going on with earthquakes- linking back to bubble formation and/or movement in the upper mantle. Taking this line of thinking a little further, a detector similar in intent to the ones we are using may also be relevant to tracking localized static electric field anomalies that may indicate an impending earthquake.

Here is the link to the thread about what I am talking about. You probably have already seen it :-)

http://forum.physorg.com/index.php?showtopic=5472&hl=

One could envision monitoring stations linked around the globe tracking these fields for possible warnings in conjunction with your other predictors/events.

Tom

Tom,





T.Roc

Thank you TRoc, I have sent a confirmation request to the NEIC/USGS web site.
Rafael.

Rafael & all,


A report for March 20, 2006 predictions: (posted on the 19th)

Estimated time frame for peak activity: 13:00 to 19:00 UTC

Predicted areas:

1. 15W 5S

results:
- 2006/03/20 03:16 0.82 N 27.99 W 10 4.6 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
- 2006/03/20 11:32 37.64 N 12.99 W 30f ML 3.0 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

2. 60W 10N

results:
- 2006/03/20 03:05 18.60 N 64.77 W 49.7 3.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS
- 2006/03/20 12:44 19.07 N 63.80 W 26.0 2.7 LEEWARD ISLANDS
- 2006/03/20 19:00 18.83 N 64.82 W 97.9 3.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS
- 2006/03/20 19:17 19.21 N 64.90 W 47.2 3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS
- 2006/03/20 20:08 19.05 N 64.85 W 81.8 3.4 VIRGIN ISLANDS

3. 105W 17N

results:
- 2006/03/20 17:16 32.87 N 116.22 W 12.3 3.6 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
- 2006/03/20 23:37 18.62 N 101.99 W 80 mb 5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO

A pretty good set of predicted results. The group that I wonder about is:

2006-03-20 14:35 5.80 S 151.13 E 40 mb 5.4 NEW BRITAIN
2006-03-20 14:29 5.92 S 151.36 E 50 G M 4.8 NEW BRITAIN
2006-03-20 14:17 5.83 S 151.09 E 40 f Mw 5.4 NEW BRITAIN

These all happened at the right time (~13:00), and the right latitude (~5 S), yet occurred nearly 180 degrees from the predicted longitude (15 W). This is not the first time that has happened, and leads me to think that some energies can "pierce" our planet, entering through one fault line, travelling straight through (with slight deflection off the core), and exiting through a fault on the other side. Any comments?


T.Roc

Hereby follows reply from the NEIC/USGS:

The moment magnitude was entered incorrectly for the
Canadian event. This has been corrected.

Madeleine Zirbes
USGS NEIC

Ditto.

Regards,

Rafael,


Very well, it's good to keep the GOVT on their toes.


A report on the prediction made for March 22nd, 2006:

Peak activity time:

07:00 to 13:00 UTC

6 out of 8 >4 mag quakes that happened that day occurred in that window, the other 2 happened <1.5 hours prior to that window.

Time frame: Good

Likely areas predicted:

105E 11S
67E 5S
30E 5N

and quakes did hit at:

03-22 10:08 2.86 N 95.76 E 30 f mb 5.0 OFF W. CST OF N. SUMATRA
03-22 07:51 40.74 N 77.61 E 40 f mb 4.9 KYRGYZSTAN-XINJIANG BDR
03-22 11:35 21.35 S 33.16 E 2 mb 4.9 MOZAMBIQUE

Not as accurate as the last batch, mainly in latitudes. This batch was from the flare, and, as I have said before, they seem to spread out much more than do the coronal hole energies.

There were a couple of ~6 mags 2 days later, possibly from the "return" path of the energy. Now things look quiet again. As I mentioned to "panascope53" on another thread, there is a little action on the Solar Data charts that began last night. I see a "crossover" coming, and there should be heavier activity today, March 25th, in the afternoon (UTC). I did not chart out the energy, so I won't venture a location.


T.Roc

Rafael, Tom, all..


It looks like more of the same: >4 & <6 magnitude quakes have been numerous today and yesterday (25th , 26th). They may get a little stronger on the 27th, for how long I'm not sure yet.

The N.Chile/Peru & N.California/Oregon relationship has been playing out (as well as w/Japan). I still don't quite get how that works?! Rafael has some good ideas about that.


T.Roc

Well, the Big Earthquake finally came, although it took much longer than expected, it did come in the Kuril Islands which is in the path from "Kamtchaka to Alaska" as posted on January 31st 2006.

(QUOTE)
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, shows global seismicity is now entering the Big Earthquake threshold. Most likely zones to be affected are:
Alaska/Kamtchaka
Tonga/Fiji
Mexico/Caribbean
Himalaya/Anatolia
Regards,

Meanwhile, at the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone (NPSZ) a 6.8 magnitude at extra deep depth of 550 Kms may cause further strong or major earthquakes updip plate, as has been observed before, (2001 and 2005)

Preliminary data for both events follows:
DATE / TIME (UTC) / LAT. / LONG. / DEPTH (kMS) / MAGNITUDE
2006 11 13 012634.07 -26.08 -63.29 550 6.80 MwGS (NPSZ)
2006 11 15 111416.XX 46.62 153.22 28.5 8.30 MwGS (KURIL ISLANDS)

Much regards from the Nazca Plate Subduction Zone !

Hi all,


Just in case somone digs this up, my part of the thread has gone HERE.


ciao,

T.Roc