I have been saying, along with others of course, that the H1N1 frenzy is a great example of how we prefer bad science over good science because it's so much more exciting.
Now... here's a nice article about the H1N1 virus.
CBC News
A lot of people blame this on the media... but isn't also true that the media sells us what they know we will buy?
We would rather buy exciting and frightful lies than the boring truth.
I've been saying all along that the H1N1 is no worse than any other type that circulates around each year. Good to see the media beginning to come around.
I have always known H1N1 is flu. But the worldwide death toll is going to be comparable to a war. Therefore, it is not unjustified to take steps to reduce that death toll. And, for many people, the vaccine is going to a better choice than gambling on getting the flu or not. Marginally better, but better and the price is right (free for at-risk populations in many areas).
And Desiree Jennings' story has nothing in it to change that equation.
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/11/...port_been_f.php
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/11/...nings_cured.php
added:
http://health.usnews.com/blogs/on-parentin...ngss-story.html
And Desiree Jennings' story has nothing in it to change that equation.
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/11/...port_been_f.php
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/11/...nings_cured.php
added:
http://health.usnews.com/blogs/on-parentin...ngss-story.html
QUOTE
But the worldwide death toll is going to be comparable to a war.
Which war?
My post had to do with the disproportionate attention to the H1N1 virus versus the near lack of attention to much more serious issues.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| But the worldwide death toll is going to be comparable to a war. |
Which war?
My post had to do with the disproportionate attention to the H1N1 virus versus the near lack of attention to much more serious issues.
According to the CDC Division of Vital Statistics the following were the leading causes of death in 2002. These apply to both male and female adults. Rank:
1. Heart Disease - 28.5%
2. Malignant Neoplasm (Cancer) - 22.8%
3. Cerebrovascular Diseases (Stroke) - 6.7%
4. Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease - 5.1%
5. Accidents (Unintentional) - 4.4%
6. Diabetes Melitus - 3.0%
7. Influenza/Pneumonia - 2.7%
8. Alzheimer's - 2.4%
9. Nephritis(Liver Disease) - 1.7%
10. Septicemia - 1.4%
Another interesting statistic of note can be found in "Is US Health Really the Best in the World?", published in the Journal of the American Medical Association and written by Barbara Starfield, MD, MPH. In this paper Dr. Starfield gives the following statistics:
* 7,000 deaths occur each year due to medication errors in hospitals
* 12,000 deaths occur each year due to unnecessary surgery
* 20,000 deaths occur each year due to other hospital errors
* 80,000 deaths occur each year due to nosocomial infections in hospitals
* 106,000 deaths occur each year due to adverse effects to properly prescribed medications
On an interesting note...
I was passing by the medical clinic where the flu shots are being distributed. There was a huge line up.
The thing I noted as being interesting is that many in the line up were smoking.
Yes, but during the H1N1 outbreak, flu/pneumonia will be the third leading cause of death (in the US).
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchiv...010/bigpi43.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Rob this is still shaping up to be quite serious, based on the graphs.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchiv...010/bigpi43.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Rob this is still shaping up to be quite serious, based on the graphs.
My initial response to this was that it was an over-reaction. I shared my views in MjolnirPants's thread. See here:
http://www.physforum.com/index.php?showtopic=26706&hl=
http://www.physforum.com/index.php?showtopic=26706&hl=
QUOTE (rpenner+Nov 7 2009, 01:02 PM)
Yes, but during the H1N1 outbreak, flu/pneumonia will be the third leading cause of death (in the US).
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchiv...010/bigpi43.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Rob this is still shaping up to be quite serious, based on the graphs.
I guess these links provide a different view on the matter.
In the 1st link, it will be intresting to see how that curve continue's into 2010.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchiv...010/bigpi43.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Rob this is still shaping up to be quite serious, based on the graphs.
I guess these links provide a different view on the matter.
In the 1st link, it will be intresting to see how that curve continue's into 2010.
Well already reports for infected are completely inaccurate. Why? Turns out that if you have signs of the flu it is automatically assumed H1N1. Simply put, they are not going to petri dish or take blood samples from everybody who shows flu like symptoms at the hospitals.
Now I took my daughter to the clinic about two weeks ago regarding a full body rash (was looking like measles turned out to be something less serious) and I asked the doctor about the patients he had seen concerning H1N1. He said that he must have seen over 100 people (it was near closing) that day and estimated that just under half had the flu. Out of them, although he treated all cases as H1N1, he estimated that only about 10 or so actually had H1N1.
It's shaping up to be comparable to other flu strains and the media/public is finally beginning to calm down as they come to the realization.
I'm with Rob...
Which war?
By the way Rob, good statistics.
Now I took my daughter to the clinic about two weeks ago regarding a full body rash (was looking like measles turned out to be something less serious) and I asked the doctor about the patients he had seen concerning H1N1. He said that he must have seen over 100 people (it was near closing) that day and estimated that just under half had the flu. Out of them, although he treated all cases as H1N1, he estimated that only about 10 or so actually had H1N1.
It's shaping up to be comparable to other flu strains and the media/public is finally beginning to calm down as they come to the realization.
I'm with Rob...
Which war?
By the way Rob, good statistics.
QUOTE (H2O+Nov 7 2009, 04:03 AM)
Well already reports for infected are completely inaccurate. Why? Turns out that if you have signs of the flu it is automatically assumed H1N1.
If you have influenza today, it's 99+% certain that it is H1N1. So the reports aren't completely inaccurate. They are probably no more than 0.5% inaccurate.
That's because when they sample people who have it, it's almost always H1N1. "Over 99% of all subtyped influenza A viruses being reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses."
From the first paragraph of my second link above. (Also see the section marked U.S. Virologic Surveillance)
Now if you just include the people with "flu-like symptoms" -- of course the proportion is lower, but it's at 37% and possibly still rising.
week 35 19.5
week 36 21.24
week 37 21.73
week 38 22.37
week 39 27.28
week 40 33.17
week 41 37.47
week 42 39.24
week 43 37.16
If you have influenza today, it's 99+% certain that it is H1N1. So the reports aren't completely inaccurate. They are probably no more than 0.5% inaccurate.
That's because when they sample people who have it, it's almost always H1N1. "Over 99% of all subtyped influenza A viruses being reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses."
From the first paragraph of my second link above. (Also see the section marked U.S. Virologic Surveillance)
Now if you just include the people with "flu-like symptoms" -- of course the proportion is lower, but it's at 37% and possibly still rising.
week 35 19.5
week 36 21.24
week 37 21.73
week 38 22.37
week 39 27.28
week 40 33.17
week 41 37.47
week 42 39.24
week 43 37.16
"During week 44, 7.7% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to [Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I)]."
The evidence grows that H1N1 has peaked. But the flu season is very early -- will it peak again with a more conventional pattern? How's Canada doing?
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
The evidence grows that H1N1 has peaked. But the flu season is very early -- will it peak again with a more conventional pattern? How's Canada doing?
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Deaths alone is not that good a measure of the impact of a disease.
Influenza averages shortening years of life by about 8 to 9 years per person, meaning its a disease primarily of the elderly.
It's death toll every year in the US is in the range of 20 to 30,000.
Think of it as early harvesting, since everyone eventually dies.
What made the Flu Pandemic of 1918 so much worse of a disease was that it hit the young adults the hardest, thus the fatalities resulted in far greater loss of years of life.
When H1N1 first appeared the major scare was that it seemed similar to the flu of 1918 in that it victims were often young and healthy.
I've not noticed that that trend has changed.
http://wcbstv.com/health/h1n1.flu.vaccine.2.1243366.html
Arthur
Influenza averages shortening years of life by about 8 to 9 years per person, meaning its a disease primarily of the elderly.
It's death toll every year in the US is in the range of 20 to 30,000.
Think of it as early harvesting, since everyone eventually dies.
What made the Flu Pandemic of 1918 so much worse of a disease was that it hit the young adults the hardest, thus the fatalities resulted in far greater loss of years of life.
When H1N1 first appeared the major scare was that it seemed similar to the flu of 1918 in that it victims were often young and healthy.
I've not noticed that that trend has changed.
http://wcbstv.com/health/h1n1.flu.vaccine.2.1243366.html
Arthur
The other day we had our annual cold weather briefing at work. As usual there was an MD present to give a segment on health which, of course, covered H1N1. His own words were that 'H1N1 has been statically on par with other seasonal flues as far as risk of infection and risk of complication'.
Now I'm not familiar with all the deaths that happened in Canada. Just a few that I read about in the paper. One particular case was a perfectly healthy 13 year old boy. The media was all over it. Emphasizing on how active he was. As if to give a sense of 'he should have been healthy enough to survive it'. What you won't read is that athletes often suffer from weakened immune systems.
One thing that I have noticed is that with the fatalities I have read about, all seem to have an underlying condition that would have an impact on immunity.
Now I'm not familiar with all the deaths that happened in Canada. Just a few that I read about in the paper. One particular case was a perfectly healthy 13 year old boy. The media was all over it. Emphasizing on how active he was. As if to give a sense of 'he should have been healthy enough to survive it'. What you won't read is that athletes often suffer from weakened immune systems.
One thing that I have noticed is that with the fatalities I have read about, all seem to have an underlying condition that would have an impact on immunity.
"During week 45, 7.5% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I."
Bad reporting, no facts, only opinion:
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/11/...orting_ever.php
Good reporting, evidence-based:
http://www.theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=1195
Bad reporting, no facts, only opinion:
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2009/11/...orting_ever.php
Good reporting, evidence-based:
http://www.theness.com/neurologicablog/?p=1195
QUOTE (RobDegraves+Nov 7 2009, 01:35 AM)
Things are definetly quieting down in the media here.
The 'frenzy' is what the media is about. Frenzies turn into ratings, ratings turn into higher advertising rates, higher rates turn into money in pockets.
But the media didn't invent H1N1. Neither did it invent the deaths it has caused, which are now much higher than thought a month ago. If someone doesn't want to take a vaccine for this, by all means don't get you and your loved ones vaccinated, that's all.
After all, "it's always the other guy that things happen to, never me, never my own."
Heart disease/stroke/cancer are intangible things. You can try to live healthy and still get them or not. You have some, but not a great deal, of personal due diligence in warding those things off.
Flu is quite tangible. And you may be at the peak of health and still die if you get a slew of the virus bodies in you, and have no or not enough antibodies to wage a defense. If we had a vaccine for heart disease or cancer we wouldn't waste much time getting that would we? But an easy fix for flu gets tossed out with the bathwater of 'media frenzy'.
The sickest - the worst I ever felt in my life - was from dysentery.
The next worst was from influenza. I was able to compare accurately since they occurred only 3 years apart, back in the '80's.
The differences between the two were 1) the dysentery lasted longer. Otherwise the symptoms were all the same, but 2) the delirium (especially horrible) from the flu was even worse: it continually energized the stomach's desire to empty itself even tho it was already quite empty. I had it only once, but I was impressed with how debilitating 'a simple flu' could actually be.
But the media didn't invent H1N1. Neither did it invent the deaths it has caused, which are now much higher than thought a month ago. If someone doesn't want to take a vaccine for this, by all means don't get you and your loved ones vaccinated, that's all.
After all, "it's always the other guy that things happen to, never me, never my own."
Heart disease/stroke/cancer are intangible things. You can try to live healthy and still get them or not. You have some, but not a great deal, of personal due diligence in warding those things off.
Flu is quite tangible. And you may be at the peak of health and still die if you get a slew of the virus bodies in you, and have no or not enough antibodies to wage a defense. If we had a vaccine for heart disease or cancer we wouldn't waste much time getting that would we? But an easy fix for flu gets tossed out with the bathwater of 'media frenzy'.
The sickest - the worst I ever felt in my life - was from dysentery.
The next worst was from influenza. I was able to compare accurately since they occurred only 3 years apart, back in the '80's.
The differences between the two were 1) the dysentery lasted longer. Otherwise the symptoms were all the same, but 2) the delirium (especially horrible) from the flu was even worse: it continually energized the stomach's desire to empty itself even tho it was already quite empty. I had it only once, but I was impressed with how debilitating 'a simple flu' could actually be.
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