Eternal youth, perfect health possible by 2030, experts say
By Futuretalk
Gerontologists consider the maximum lifespan for humans to be about 120 years (the world longevity record is held by Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 at age 122). But with rising evidence from biotech miracles like stem cell therapies and genetic engineering, and recent nanotech advances that deliver drugs inside cells, some scientists are starting to believe this limit can be increased.
Aging science has always been divided between pessimists and optimists. Pessimists argue that aging is caused by the same inevitable decay that afflicts machines and inanimate objects. They accept that biology has evolved repair mechanisms to mitigate the damage, but insist that these merely delay death long enough to ensure the reproductive survival of the species.
Optimists counter that all animals have immortal reproductive cells (“germlines”), and longevity is determined through systems like these that in theory, can be altered. They argue that biology has the tools to cope with wear and tear indefinitely, and with tomorrow’s biotech and nanotech discoveries, aging could be eliminated completely.
Award-winning author Ray Kurzweil supports this optimistic view. In a recent interview Kurzweil said, “We will soon develop ways to stop and reverse aging.” By 2030 or before, we will program tiny nanobots to travel throughout the body and replace aging cells. They will repair bones and muscles, fight germs, fix mutant DNA, and even make us smarter.
Cambridge anti-aging guru Aubrey de Grey recently stated in a LiveScience interview that by 2030, anti-aging science will enable every adult on Earth to maintain a biological age of a ’20-something, and never suffer death from sickness or aging. When asked if he wanted to live forever, de Grey replied “It’s not really a matter of living forever; it’s a matter of not wanting to die.”
Newcastle University researcher Tom Kirkwood explains how our definition of death has changed. Death used to be defined as the moment heartbeat and breathing stopped. But then it was found that people could be revived from this condition, so the concept of brain-stem death was introduced. Today, even this definition seems inadequate. Many forward-thinkers now believe that death happens when medical competencies expire, and with future science, it may be preventable.
The notion that death might be cured is not part of today’s mainstream thinking. Nearly everyone expects to die. Most people cannot conceive of humanity ever defeating death; but more and more forward-thinkers are beginning to recognize that eternal youth and health is indeed an achievable goal.
Life extension enthusiasts believe that if a crash program similar to the one that put a man on the moon was launched, everyone on Earth could be guaranteed indefinite lifespan by 2030 or before. Science-wise, we are close to realizing this “magical future” – emotionally we have a long way to go.
In addition, there are tough issues ahead. Will life lose its meaning in the absence of death? What will we do on an already crowded planet if people keep getting on, but few ever get off? Solutions for these concerns must be found.
However, consider this – we could be looking at the last generation of humans to die from disease and aging. How exciting is that.
This article will appear in various print media and blogs; comments welcome. See other published work by Futuretalk at http://www.positivefuturist.com/archive.html
Interesting issue!
While most would greet the prospect of a virtually immortality with open arms, a few terrible questions bring me up short.
Who decides who lives forever? No matter the outcome of that, the vast majority of the world will have to be eliminated, by either direct genocide (ack!) or simple refusal of the drug/treatment/nanocolony. If you are one of the few immortals, you will have to bear the deaths of more than all that fell in the Holocaust on your conscience. Not a good prospect for eternity.
Unbelievable generation gap. Lets just suppose that the world this happens in is infinitely large, and has infinite resources. When your 1000, are you gonna listen to some 200yr old puppy? or even relate?
Social stagnation. The small population that gets the immortal juice inevitably will be the ruling population. Since in this closed system no "fresh blood" could be injected( any addition to the immortal population will result in overpopulation given a long enough time line) and no new ways of doing things would occur. The "but we've always done it that way" method of rule would be in effect. Entropy
Lack of memory capacity. What good would it be to live long enough to have gathered enough data to fill your entire memory? Eventually you would forget a vast majority of what you learned, just by the day-to-day accruing of new experiences pushing out the old. What good is it to live forever, if eventually you will have to relearn lessons learned a millenia ago?
Someday maybe an immortal species will come onto the field, who can say. But we in our current form are not that species, not mentally at least. It is good that men should die to make room for the next, 'cause we obviously aren't the end all ultimate permutation of evolution. And what schmucks would we be if we stopped that from coming to pass?
Sincerely,
Oxensraiser?
While most would greet the prospect of a virtually immortality with open arms, a few terrible questions bring me up short.
Who decides who lives forever? No matter the outcome of that, the vast majority of the world will have to be eliminated, by either direct genocide (ack!) or simple refusal of the drug/treatment/nanocolony. If you are one of the few immortals, you will have to bear the deaths of more than all that fell in the Holocaust on your conscience. Not a good prospect for eternity.
Unbelievable generation gap. Lets just suppose that the world this happens in is infinitely large, and has infinite resources. When your 1000, are you gonna listen to some 200yr old puppy? or even relate?
Social stagnation. The small population that gets the immortal juice inevitably will be the ruling population. Since in this closed system no "fresh blood" could be injected( any addition to the immortal population will result in overpopulation given a long enough time line) and no new ways of doing things would occur. The "but we've always done it that way" method of rule would be in effect. Entropy
Lack of memory capacity. What good would it be to live long enough to have gathered enough data to fill your entire memory? Eventually you would forget a vast majority of what you learned, just by the day-to-day accruing of new experiences pushing out the old. What good is it to live forever, if eventually you will have to relearn lessons learned a millenia ago?
Someday maybe an immortal species will come onto the field, who can say. But we in our current form are not that species, not mentally at least. It is good that men should die to make room for the next, 'cause we obviously aren't the end all ultimate permutation of evolution. And what schmucks would we be if we stopped that from coming to pass?
Sincerely,
Oxensraiser?
To Oxensraiser,
This article does not mean to imply that anyone wants to live forever. Mathematicians cannot even tell us how long forever is.
Most people simply wish to enjoy good health and not face unwanted death from aging or disease.
As to who makes the decision to seek medical help from sickness and diseases – it’s the patients who are sick; they are the ones who will decide if they want to improve their health.
And remember, other technologies will advance in this future too. By 2030, NASA plans to land men on Mars to build a permanent self-sustaining colony by mid-century.
Before the end of the 21st century we can expect many space colonies will be thriving throughout our solar system, and by the end of the 22nd century, more humans could be living in space than on Earth. Social stagnation will not exist anywhere.
Today’s humans who blindly accept death as “normal” will not survive to become part of tomorrow’s futuristic world of neuron-enhanced forward-thinkers bent on scattering their populations to the stars.
Most scientists believe that human life is the most valuable commodity in the universe and that it should be given top priority in our future plans. Life extension is just a normal evolutionary step for humanity.
This article does not mean to imply that anyone wants to live forever. Mathematicians cannot even tell us how long forever is.
Most people simply wish to enjoy good health and not face unwanted death from aging or disease.
As to who makes the decision to seek medical help from sickness and diseases – it’s the patients who are sick; they are the ones who will decide if they want to improve their health.
And remember, other technologies will advance in this future too. By 2030, NASA plans to land men on Mars to build a permanent self-sustaining colony by mid-century.
Before the end of the 21st century we can expect many space colonies will be thriving throughout our solar system, and by the end of the 22nd century, more humans could be living in space than on Earth. Social stagnation will not exist anywhere.
Today’s humans who blindly accept death as “normal” will not survive to become part of tomorrow’s futuristic world of neuron-enhanced forward-thinkers bent on scattering their populations to the stars.
Most scientists believe that human life is the most valuable commodity in the universe and that it should be given top priority in our future plans. Life extension is just a normal evolutionary step for humanity.
I cannot disagree with anything you have said, after all who knows what the future brings? Just pointing out a few stumbling blocks that will come screaming to the forefront the moment any life extension technology becomes viable.
Best we state the negatives with the positives so that inquiring minds interested in that field can think about the possible solutions, before the problems arrive in our lap
Sincerely,
Oxensraiser?
Best we state the negatives with the positives so that inquiring minds interested in that field can think about the possible solutions, before the problems arrive in our lap
Sincerely,
Oxensraiser?
The body continually decays so continually needs to be repaired. It's like continually copying a number of telephone directories, and mistakes occur. Mistakes build on earlier mistakes and that is what we call aging. How can that be stopped?
With a present death rate of around 140,000 per day, we still end up with another 250,000+ people every day. The world's population doubled from 1960 to 2000. Imagine no one dying. Standing room only on the world eventually.
With a present death rate of around 140,000 per day, we still end up with another 250,000+ people every day. The world's population doubled from 1960 to 2000. Imagine no one dying. Standing room only on the world eventually.
Humans are wired for improvement
Nearly everyone might agree that since our species began, humanity has always strived to improve its welfare. This seems to be “wired” into our genes and there is no evidence that it will end anytime soon.
However, we can debate when future science and technology breakthroughs might happen. Are we riding a fast track as we evolve into the future; or as some suggest, will our “science age” end and throw civilization into some sort of “dark age?”
Of course nobody can predict with 100% accuracy what will happen in the coming 10, 20, 30 years, but by examining present day knowledge we can come up with plausible scenarios of how the future might unfold.
I see a bright future ahead, others do not. I hope for everyone’s sake that my vision is correct, but I guess we will just have to wait it out and see who is right.
If we take care of our health today until advancing technologies step in and give us a boost, we will improve our odds to become part of whatever future lies ahead.
Comments welcome.
Nearly everyone might agree that since our species began, humanity has always strived to improve its welfare. This seems to be “wired” into our genes and there is no evidence that it will end anytime soon.
However, we can debate when future science and technology breakthroughs might happen. Are we riding a fast track as we evolve into the future; or as some suggest, will our “science age” end and throw civilization into some sort of “dark age?”
Of course nobody can predict with 100% accuracy what will happen in the coming 10, 20, 30 years, but by examining present day knowledge we can come up with plausible scenarios of how the future might unfold.
I see a bright future ahead, others do not. I hope for everyone’s sake that my vision is correct, but I guess we will just have to wait it out and see who is right.
If we take care of our health today until advancing technologies step in and give us a boost, we will improve our odds to become part of whatever future lies ahead.
Comments welcome.