Can Planet Earth Predict Atlantic Hurricanes
better than Dr. Gray and the CSU Scientists?

The answer is YES!

Conservation Of Momentum: The total average surface Temperature & Climate of Planet Earth remains constant unless acted upon by a significant aberrant force such as solar variability, meteor impacts, thermonuclear explosions, volcanic eruptions, undersea volcanoes & vents, etc... the number, location, magnitude, activity, and timing of which are unknown, unpredictable, and uncontrollable.

Dr. Gray (CSU) with his vast experience and his team of expert scientists (Phil Klotzbach, Chris Landsea, Paul Mielke, Ken Berry) have been issuing Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts since 1984 using a super-computer, and megabucks of government grant funding. After 25 years of forecasting hurricanes, CSU should be very good at forecasting hurricanes... but CSU is not.

Compare CSU's Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts with prior 10-year averages:

.......ATLANTIC...10-YEAR...10-YEAR...EARTH.......CSU.........CSU.........BEST
.....HURRICANES...TOTAL......AVG......ERROR...FORECAST...ERROR...FORECAST

2008.......8..............79............8............0.............7...............1.........EARTH
2007.......4..............77............8............4.............7...............3.........CSU
2006.......5..............81............8............3.............9...............4.........EARTH
2005.....15..............77............8.............7.............6...............9........EARTH
2004.......9..............72............7.............2.............7...............2........TIE
2003.......7..............67............7.............0.............8...............1........EARTH
2002.......4..............65............6.............2.............8...............4........EARTH

TOTALS.......................EARTH ERROR = 18.......CSU ERROR = 24

Final Score: EARTH... 5 ... CSU... 1

If I'm understanding this data correctly, you are saying that the earth's long term historical average is a better predictor of future hurricanes than the scientists computer models and experience, which is paradoxically supposedly based on....long term averages...interesting.

After 25 years of experience, Dr. Gray should have figured out that the 10-year average beats his forecast 71% of the time... and done something different.

Can government financed scientists predict Global Warming better than the government financed scientists can predict Atlantic Hurricanes? I doubt it.