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gregconquest
This makes for a difficult search, and there is a lot of hyperbole on climate change, so pardon me if I have missed a rational discussion of this topic . . .

Are there any other comprehensive scientific investigations into climate change going on now? Or is it only the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"?

The science of climate change is a field that is wayyyy too broad for any one person to understand, and all the discussion I've heard on this is always one person quoting one piece of evidence, and the other quoting another piece. Ice core CO2 levels, methane vs. CO2, volcanoes belching and cows farting, Martian polar ice caps melting, . . . It's all missing the forest for the trees rolleyes.gif

Specifics of climatology do not really matter for you and me since we cannot weigh them properly in the overall scheme. Only an accurate overall view is worthwhile.

It seems to me there are only two topics appropriate for amateurs to discuss about climate change:
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?
2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency? Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?

Trying to elaborate a little further, I can be an amateur evolutionary scientist, finding fossils and cataloging them myself, and I understand enough about evolutionary theory to notice if something is out of place. But there is no way I can be an amateur climate change scientist. So, the only way for me to appraise the science of climate change, and the only persuasion I can try and give to my inquiring acquaintances, is discussion of the scientific bodies putting fourth theories.

So, is the IPCC the only game in town? Has anyone seen this discussion anywhere else?

Thank you.
Greg Conquest


Zarkov
QUOTE
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?

no and no
Big Oil has been actively manipulating, by misinformation, disinformation and complete obstruction, to keep researchers away from the true picture. Big Oil even paid researchers to either shut up or be on their side.


QUOTE (->
QUOTE
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?

no and no
Big Oil has been actively manipulating, by misinformation, disinformation and complete obstruction, to keep researchers away from the true picture. Big Oil even paid researchers to either shut up or be on their side.


2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency? Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?

no and no
it is all hype

Oh don't get me wrong Global Climate Change will lead to a total extinction of life on Earth but not via heat

The crunch will be cold, total cold
a snowball Earth.

and noting will be done to avert this outcome because everyone is addicted to oil

Oil here, oil there, oil everywhere
but mainly oil on the oceans will bring on Armageddon.

kwel eh, we all die so Big Oil doesn't have to take responsibility.

Don't ya just luv humans, LOL.
paul h
gregconquest

>so pardon me if I have missed a rational discussion of this topic

I don't know if we have had a "rational" discussion on this (ha,ha....)

There are several here that are looking over other peoples data and perhaps some that are generating their own data. We have had so many threads on this topic that I would love to see them all moved to their own topic folder. We do cut up allot. Humor is a good thing. I would like to see links to more data because I think the whole GW thingy is hype, (just follow the money honey).
But feel free to jump in and ask questions and post any data that you have. No matter what your take on this is I'm sure you can find someone to agree and someone to disagree with you. (we're an equal opportunity offender here).


Zarkov

>Oh don't get me wrong Global Climate Change will lead to a total extinction of life on Earth but not via heat The crunch will be cold, total cold a snowball Earth.


You have said this several times and I guess I will ask you to elaborate on this ,
Why do you think we will all freeze?
Zarkov
QUOTE
Why do you think we will all freeze?


what is happening is the death of low level condensation clouds leaving more sunshine through to ground level (at present there is a rise in ice cloud formation, due to a drying atmosphere)

or in reality, sunshine to sea level

The sea has a micro-layer membrane of petroleum oil over its surface
This membrane inhibits water evaporation... a mechanism that cools the sea and creates low level clouds to cool the Earth

The sea therefore becomes artificially hot. Meanwhile the sea surface is diluted with fresh water ice melt.
This heat must be lost in time... into water evaporation, which will lead to massive cloud banks, precipitous cooling and ice and snow fall
thus a new Ice Age is born... but this will not be an "ordinary" ice age

What will happen in the very near future is dependent upon stupid human beings...
with a world drying out, food will become critical, and war may set up Armageddon, and release the hot diluted sea water from its cage.... to freeze the earth in a slightly longer term

for millions of years.

The thermal cycle and the hydrological cycle of the Earth have been smashed and a new equilibrium will be naturally formed.... but it will not include LIFE in it's restructure.

The Death of Clouds.
xtrmn8r
Zarkov Posted on 12/14/07 at 4:56 PM

QUOTE
The thermal cycle and the hydrological cycle of the Earth have been smashed and a new equilibrium will be naturally formed.... but it will not include LIFE in it's restructure.


Horse Puckey

Even IF the rest of your nonsense were true, unless the Earth were torn asunder, life would continue.

This has been discussed before.
gregconquest
Everyone replying so far, please. I specifically want to avoid pet theories and specific hypotheses on climate change. Zarkov, the effect of "oil sheens on the oceans" does not belong in this thread. I'm asking only about the scientific process relating to the IPCC and any other investigations.

As to the thread topic as addressed:
>> gregconquest:
>> 1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?

> Zarkov:
>no and no
> Big Oil has been actively manipulating, by misinformation, disinformation and
> complete obstruction, to keep researchers away from the true picture.
> Big Oil even paid researchers to either shut up or be on their side.

If the process were transparent, oil companies involvement or non-involvement would be somewhat irrelevant; their data would be clearly contributed and challengeable as *potentially* having a bias.
So, the big question here would be: Why do you say the process is not transparent?
The secondary question would be: How do you substantiate that the oil companies have tried to manipulate the data?

>> gregconquest:
>> 2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency?
>> Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?

> Zarkov:
> no and no
> it is all hype

I suppose I can't ask for documentation on something's non-existence, but the "it's all hype" comment betrays a bias on your part, Zarkov. I'm not looking for conspiracy theories, be they true or not, here. I am trying to focus just on the science and the scientific process -- period.

If the science is lacking, then the next step is not more bantering about oil films and other "overlooked" factors in the earth's climatological processes by "amateur climatologists", the next step would be pushing for an independent inquiry by everyone who appreciates the way science works. The American National Science Foundation (NSF) would be one ideal agency for this inquiry. Other agencies around the world could do similar things -- there should be several concurrent inquiries, but it is ridiculous for *us* to be arguing about all these details of the climate. Science has long had built-in safeguards to remove bias. Our role is to push for clean science, not for our own pet ideas . . .

Regards,
Greg Conquest
xtrmn8r
Hi gregconquest,

The problem, as I see it, is that whoever comes out any information, it is immediately attacked and confounded. As far as I know IPCC is the leading authority.

You may want to wade through the posts on this forum, there has been several debates on this issue. This is one of the more recent.

http://forum.physorg.com/index.php?showtopic=13562&st=0

gregconquest
Thanks for the link, xtrmn8r, but I hardly see how an article entitled "Manmade Global Warming is a con game" is going to be unbiased. Some of the posts are interesting, but even then the discussions about Milankovitch Cycles and sunspot activity belong in a panel of scientists, not a bunch of amateurs who can neither quantify the effects nor call for satellites to be launched to measure such phenomena.

xtrmn8r wrote:
> The problem, as I see it, is that whoever comes out any information,
> it is immediately attacked and confounded.
> As far as I know IPCC is the leading authority.

I'm sorry, but the IPCC is only one authority, and its credibility is questioned. We need a second opinion. Do you not agree?

Greg
Zarkov
QUOTE
life would continue.


err no, not this time around.

Where is the teeming life on Mars?

as for proof of the Global Climate Change mechanism...
if you do not want to seem like an ostrich then I would read the evidence at

http://www.omegafour.com/forum2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=46

and a total discussion at

http://www.open2.net/forum/showthread.php?t=3107

so I will leave y'all to it

sorry I could not read your script, as a scientist I only deal in facts.

goodbye.
gregconquest
QUOTE (Zarkov+Dec 15 2007, 09:15 PM)
Where is the teeming life on Mars?
as for proof of the Global Climate Change mechanism...
if you do not want to seem like an ostrich then I would read the evidence at
(url deleted) and a total discussion at...(also deleted)

Zarkov, would you please stop hijacking this thread? I called for a discussion of the IPCC, its openness, and asked about other agencies investigating climate change. I specifically requested that we NOT talk about yet more pet theories of climate change.

There are plenty of other threads ABOUT specifics of climate change . . . Please post this stuff there and keep this thread focused.

Thanks,
Greg Conquest
frethack
There really arent any comprehensive studies being done that even come close to the monetary scale of the IPCC (it could be argued that most bureaucrats invent new ways to waste money). All of the credible sources that I have seen are focused on one aspect of climate, and as such, dont really meet your requirements.

I would agree that the IPCC could use a very thorough credibility check, but that would require another international panel to be created that is overseen by an intergovernmental body to have any kind of global consensus (If you believe there is such a thing.) If you read the reviews and recommendations from the IPCC's review panel for their climate reports, there are more than a few rational minds that contribute, and most seem amicable to the notion of cooperation and big picture thinking. There are, however, a lot of loons in the upper echelons of the four work groups, run by both scientists and politicians, which, for me, presents a bit of a problem. Politics and science dont mix well.

I would suggest that you read everything you can find that is peer reviewed. My local library has a pretty large volume of scientific, peer reviewed journals available online, and this has probably been the most help to me. Im working on my undergrad in Geophysics right now (I intend to pursue some field in climatology for my graduate work), and my professors are even pretty split over this. Most are solely anthropogenic global warming enthusiasts, but there is a strong minority that attempt to look at the big picture. Its very interesting to hear their views.
gregconquest
QUOTE (frethack+Dec 16 2007, 05:28 AM)
There really arent any comprehensive studies being done that even come close to the monetary scale of the IPCC ...  All of the credible sources that I have seen are focused on one aspect of climate, and as such, dont really meet your requirements. 

I would agree that the IPCC could use a very thorough credibility check ... there are more than a few rational minds that contribute ...  There are, however, a lot of loons in the upper echelons ... both scientists and politicians ... Politics and science dont mix well.

I would suggest that you read everything you can find that is peer reviewed...


Thanks for the thoughtful response, frethack. What you're saying though, is confirming my suspicions. The US government isn't even trying to find out what's really going on. I know Bush has a terrible record on science policy, but this is ridiculous.

Just in the States, we have American against American arguing minutiae and conspiracy theories about something which should be decipherable, and our leader is on perpetual vacation! When I check the websites for the US NSF (National Science Foundation) and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), I can find individual studies, but no position on the controversy -- nothing to guide me as a citizen as to the position of the US government on this obviously, if it is true, supremely important issue. The NCAR site even talks about the details of climate change as if it is simply accepted that it is true. (Sorry I couldn't post the url's above -- this site is stopping me from doing so even though I tried the "http" buttons above...)

I have not done an in-depth inquiry yet, but it appears that America *has* no leadership on this issue; where is the president and the director of the NSF? This is the only issue that I seem to be able to see clearly in the whole climate change debate. We, as America, need to show leadership and sponsor an open inquiry into global warming/climate change. We have two years before the second round of the Bali talks takes place -- when they want to set target numbers. Even *appearing* to bury our heads in the sand is disgraceful. I don't think even the skeptics or deniers or conspiracy theorists could argue with that. Could you -- anyone?

Greg
adoucette
QUOTE (gregconquest+Dec 17 2007, 10:12 PM)

Thanks for the thoughtful response, frethack. What you're saying though, is confirming my suspicions. The US government isn't even trying to find out what's really going on. I know Bush has a terrible record on science policy, but this is ridiculous.


No Greg, your comment is ridiculous.

Certainly it shouldn't have taken any great effort to find that the DIRECT US spending on Climate Research is larger than any other nation.

QUOTE
During the past thirteen years the United States, through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), has made the world's largest scientific investment in the areas of climate change and global change research -- a total investment of almost $20 billion. 


http://www.climatescience.gov/about/default.htm
http://www.energy.gov/news/5636.htm
http://www.energy.gov/news/5214.htm
http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/
http://www.gcrio.org/
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/

Or that it is higher under Pres Bush than EVER before.

http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2003/Nov/21-668584.html

Then, when you consider the additional primary research and climate data that is provided by NASA global monitoring, climate modeling and NOAA data gathering initiatives the amount we spend on Climate Research is HUGE.

http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/modeling/
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/
http://climate.gsfc.nasa.gov/


Next time you look at the list of scientists supporting the IPCC effort you might notice that the LARGEST group are American Scientists (who perform their IPCC work on the US dime)

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/wg1/wg1authors.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/synthesis...riting-team.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/wg3/wg3authors.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/wg2/wg2authors.pdf

Sheesh.

Arthur
frethack
Gregconquest

Arthur is correct. Dont be so quick to jump to conclusions. This does not mean that the US assessment holds much credibility throughout the world (in fact, it is held in pretty low regard...though it should not be), but most industrialized nations have some sort independent climate research.

QUOTE
It seems to me there are only two topics appropriate for amateurs to discuss about climate change:
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?
2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency? Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?


Your criteria mentioned here does not leave much room for consideration. Any comprehensive climate assessment is, by necessity, going to contain quite a bit of borrowed independent research. Validation then becomes a problem. What nation will this independent agency come from? Will it be a government agency, a multinational agency, or a private agency? No matter what road is taken, there will be ballyhooing and nay saying, and everyone has their own ideas of "transparency".

QUOTE (->
QUOTE
It seems to me there are only two topics appropriate for amateurs to discuss about climate change:
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?
2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency? Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?


Your criteria mentioned here does not leave much room for consideration. Any comprehensive climate assessment is, by necessity, going to contain quite a bit of borrowed independent research. Validation then becomes a problem. What nation will this independent agency come from? Will it be a government agency, a multinational agency, or a private agency? No matter what road is taken, there will be ballyhooing and nay saying, and everyone has their own ideas of "transparency".

I know Bush has a terrible record on science policy, but this is ridiculous.


I have my own problems with the current administration, but do not forget that, in addition to what Arthur has provided, President Bush pulled the US out of a VERY expensive and useless Kyoto treaty. Mars, the Moon, and renewables have also been given the greatest push, as well as the beginnings of the privatization of space.

QUOTE
. . . It's all missing the forest for the trees rolleyes.gif


If you do not understand the trees individually, you cannot know the nature of the forest.
adoucette
QUOTE (frethack+Dec 18 2007, 01:16 PM)
I have my own problems with the current administration, but do not forget that, in addition to what Arthur has provided, President Bush pulled the US out of a VERY expensive and useless Kyoto treaty.  Mars, the Moon, and renewables have also been given the greatest push, as well as the beginnings of the privatization of space.


Of course not signing Kyoto is not the same as not reducing your CO2 emissions.

There are quite a few Kyoto signers who have not reduced their CO2 emissions at all.
There are quite a few Kyoto signers who have not reduced their CO2 emissions as much as the US.
There are Few (if any) signers who have had the INCREASE in population and GDP that the US has had and have ALSO reduced their CO2 emissions.

Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 were 1.5 percent below the 2005 total

From 2005 to 2006, the greenhouse gas intensity of the U.S. economy—measured as metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) emitted per million dollars of gross domestic product (GDP)—fell by 4.2 percent, the largest annual decrease since the 1990 base year.

ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom...grpt/057306.pdf



Arthur
paul h
All,
This is as good of thread as any other on GW to ask this question.
Today I heard on a talk radio show that with in the next few days 300 scientist would be presenting a letter in dissension of GW.
Does any know anything about this?
lengould
paul h: If history is any indicator, I'd suggest you study carefully the qualifications of those "300 scientists". Last one like that I saw included a bunch of DVM's (Doctor of Veterinary Medicine) and DDL's (Doctor of Divinity).

"the IPCC is only one authority, and its credibility is questioned. We need a second opinion. Do you not agree?"

It seems too obvious to need pointing out, but have none of you considered that IF IT WERE POSSIBLE to assemble a CREDIBLE panel of unimpeacheable climate scientists to contradict the IPCC's findings, THEN the current Bush administration in the US would have done it LONG AGO. No further discussion required.
adoucette
Now you are just being naive.

The largest group of IPCC scientists are from the US.
The most influential of them (Lead Authors like Soloman and Trenbreth or NASA's Hansen) have been there from BEFORE Bush was elected and will be there when Bush is gone.

Being President, or even in the majority party doesn't provide a mechanism (even given the desire) to reach down into the the SCIENTIFIC agencies and ALTER the staffing at the SCIENCE LEVEL. Sure, you might be able to change the few APPOINTED agency heads, but the GAO and other Federal laws prevent ARBITRARY removal of staff for POLITICAL REASONS.

Now onto the IPCC, the problem with it is it IS at the top layers a POLITICAL BODY.

The influential Summary for Policymakers is written by POLITICIANS. Witness the HAGGLING over the wording in the last report of LIKELY vs VERY LIKELY for the impact of humans on GW. This one debate caused the whole report to be delivered late. In this case the term "VERY LIKELY" won, but CLEARLY there is NO SCIENTIFIC justification for these critical POLITICAL terms.

The WG Scientific papers are the work of dozens of scientists but the ultimate report is authored by relatively FEW lead Authors which are chosen by the IPCC, and in this regard they have shown that they ONLY nominate those whose views align with the overall AGW theory. Worse, over time, those scientists who disagree with the lead Authors and have had their views edited out have left the IPCC process. (Witness Trenbreth vs Landsea culminating in Landsea's resignation, though Landsea was CLEARLY the more senior scientist in the area under dispute)

Finally we get to the REAL POLITICAL aspect of the IPCC, the 100 year projections run by a small group of influential modelers that are being fed a series of SCENARIOS which include totally UNRELISTIC ASSUMPTIONS., Then the output of ALL the models are presented and the HOT Hadley models always taking top stage as the UPPER BOUNDRY of potential warming.

Of course from THAT POINT ON, all the SCARY HYPE you see is based on the HOTTEST MODEL of a TOTALLY UNREALISTIC SCENARIO.

But you say its NOT POLITICAL????

Arthur
TaddPeake
QUOTE (adoucette+Dec 20 2007, 04:44 PM)
Being President, or even in the majority party doesn't provide a mechanism (even given the desire) to reach down into the the SCIENTIFIC agencies and ALTER the staffing at the SCIENCE LEVEL.  Sure, you might be able to change the few APPOINTED agency heads, but the GAO and other Federal laws prevent ARBITRARY removal of staff for POLITICAL REASONS.

What he said.

A primary source on presidential appointments, the "Plum Book"

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/plumbook/index.html

"Every four years, just after the Presidential election, the United States Government Policy and Supporting Positions, commonly known as the Plum Book, is published, alternately, by the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs and the House Committee on Government Reform. The Plum Book is used to identify presidentially appointed positions within the Federal Government. "

I believe you'll find what you want mainly at the bottom of p. 9 of the 2004 edition, under the "Office of Science and Technology Policy." Director, Chief of Staff and General Counsel, plus several deputies and assistants.
DogMaEye
Bush did not pull the U.S. out of Kyoto. Kyoto was created under Clinton (with OwlGore as the U.S. representative). The treaty was rejected by a democratic senate by a vote of 98-2. A president does not have the power under the constitution to bind the U.S. to a treaty. It must be ratified by the senate.

As far as the IPCC is concerned, there were a huge number of dissenters to this piece of crap, but they were not allowed to offer any changes. It was not peer reviewed for accuracy. It was a pure political document to try to force wealthier countries to destroy their economies. China and India are essentially exempt from any standards.

Global warming is not even remotely a settled concept. The whole thing started with the Mann hockey stick graph, which was a totally fraudulent piece of work. There are many problems with the models and the research. Not a single model retrofits to actual measurements before 1950. Not a single model can account for the medieval warm period. Greenland was named Greenland for a reason!

New research indicates that whatever warming may be occurring does not fit any of the atmospheric models. The temperature gradients in the atmosphere are not consistent with a greenhouse model.
adoucette
QUOTE (DogMaEye+Dec 20 2007, 03:05 PM)
Bush did not pull the U.S. out of Kyoto. Kyoto was created under Clinton (with OwlGore as the U.S. representative). The treaty was rejected by a democratic senate by a vote of 98-2. A president does not have the power under the constitution to bind the U.S. to a treaty. It must be ratified by the senate.


Minor procedural point.

The President Submits a treaty to the Senate for Ratification.

In the case of Kyoto, Clinton never submitted the treaty because the Senate had taken a "sense of the Senate" vote and what they voted 98-2 on was that they would not ratify a CO2 restrictions treaty if China was not also a party to the CO2 restrictions.

Arthur
Woulf
The biggest drawback in Africa is an Elephant's foreskin. By the same token, you can see the quick reversal; from Greenhouse gas global warming, to man-made global warming at the climatology conventions.
gregconquest
QUOTE (adoucette+Dec 18 2007, 03:54 PM)
No Greg, your comment is ridiculous.

Certainly it shouldn't have taken any great effort to find that the DIRECT US spending on Climate Research is larger than any other nation.

...links deleted...

Or that it is higher under Pres Bush than EVER before.

...links deleted...

Then, when you consider the additional primary research and climate data that is provided by NASA global monitoring, climate modeling and NOAA data gathering initiatives the amount we spend on Climate Research is HUGE.

...links deleted...

Next time you look at the list of scientists supporting the IPCC effort you might notice that the LARGEST group are American Scientists (who perform their IPCC work on the US dime)

...links deleted...

Sheesh.

Arthur

Sorry for the delay in replying . . . .

I appreciated you joining in the discussion, Arthur. Thank you for all the links, but I was surprised at your attitude toward me. I was saying that it was ridiculous that there was no leadership on the issue of climate change coming from the US government. You mistook me for saying there was no research going on. Most of your links address this issue.

It truly does appear that the US government is spending mightily. Nowhere in any of your links, though, nor on the sites I could find, is there any simple, authoritative statement on the US government's position on climate change. You know the debate well -- is it happening or not? Is it because of humans or not? Can we stop it or not? Is the IPCC statement credible or not?

This is the kind of leadership I would expect from the US government. With the US being viewed globally as one of the biggest skeptics of climate change; clear, concise, easy-to-understand statements from the US government would be instrumental in resolving many of the misconceptions on climate change.

That is why I say the situation is ridiculous.

"Sheesh"? What do you expect?

Greg
Zarkov
QUOTE
The temperature gradients in the atmosphere are not consistent with a greenhouse model.


Indeed

The rise of the Ice Cloud family, normal tropospheric clouds, cirrus clouds and all above that
indicate a drying lower atmosphere, a cooler troposphere, all the way to the edge of space

These high level clouds are increasing in thickness and in area, and they are causing pronounced cooling directly below them. This is leading to droplet condensation cloud which in tun is cooling the land below. Rainfall is slightly enhanced once these condensation clouds form real clouds. However the dry air has markedly increased the water evaporation rate

Infra-red radiation levels are increasing at ground level due to the bounce back effect of the concave undersides of the Ice Clouds.

These changes are irreversible,,, the Ice Clouds will just get thicker and thicker. They have spread almost to the equator in the Southern Hemisphere....

I would be interested to hear from you about the weather in your parts and the type and characteristics of the cloud cover.
adoucette
QUOTE (gregconquest+Feb 9 2008, 02:40 AM)
It truly does appear that the US government is spending mightily. Nowhere in any of your links, though, nor on the sites I could find, is there any simple, authoritative statement on the US government's position on climate change. You know the debate well -- is it happening or not? Is it because of humans or not? Can we stop it or not? Is the IPCC statement credible or not?

This is the kind of leadership I would expect from the US government. With the US being viewed globally as one of the biggest skeptics of climate change; clear, concise, easy-to-understand statements from the US government would be instrumental in resolving many of the misconceptions on climate change.

That is why I say the situation is ridiculous.

"Sheesh"? What do you expect?

Greg

Here is the IPCC's statement from their 4th assessment report which spans over 20 years of data gathering and analysis:

Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.

To parse this:

Most means > 50%
Increase GAT since 1950 = ~ 0.3 C
Very Likely = >90%
Anthropogenic GHG = CO2, CH4, CFCs & NOx

Or in other words:

The IPCC has concluded that there is ~ 90% chance that somewhat more than half of the measured 0.3 C rise in global average temperature since ~ 1950 was due to increases in CO2, CH4, CFCs and NOx in the atmosphere due to human activity.

I don't think you will find anyone seriously disputing that man might be responsible for ~ 0.06 C degree rise per DECADE.

The issue is not is the globe warming, but what is the cause of it, and how much of that is caused by human activity?

The Govt's issue is assuming that humans are partly responsible for the warming, what SHOULD we do?

That last part is the most tricky, and I can assure you, there are no simple solutions.

Its not just about CO2, CH4 and CFCs, its about housing and transportation and food supplies and energy use and developing vs developed countries and manufacturing based economies vs service based economies etc etc etc.


The US Govt's current POLICY in regard to AGW is not hard to find though:

See:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/20...20050518-4.html

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/20...matechange.html

Arthur
barakn
QUOTE (gregconquest+Dec 14 2007, 09:03 AM)
Are there any other comprehensive scientific investigations into climate change going on now? Or is it only the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"?

...

It seems to me there are only two topics appropriate for amateurs to discuss about climate change:
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?
2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency? Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?

...

So, is the IPCC the only game in town? Has anyone seen this discussion anywhere else?

There is some confusion on what the IPCC actually does. Your comments seem to imply that the IPCC is a research institute that periodically releases reports on its own research. While IPCC members are active in their fields of research, they have a secondary duty which is to read all or most of the research in their area of expertise, whether that research is by another IPCC member or not, and try to summarize the consensus. The consensus in the scientific literature is that there is man-made global warming. I'm not saying the consensus is correct. They may be right or they may too afraid for their jobs to attack the current paradigm.
philip347
In the special Six Degrees , or something like that, that’s now airing on the network, a government weather satellite, showed that there was a one degree increase in the ocean water temperature in the areas of the Gulf Of Mexico and in the ocean off the coast of the U.S.
This might be terminal change, without us being able to lower the temperatures that seem to be starting to climb world wide?
The best course of action now, would be to stop the use of combustible fuel sources, put the war machines on hold and to both admit that governments have already made off world travel and to allow this factor for the general public, to elsewhere.
If we don’t, still keeping this fortress internal mentality, greater maladies might befall our collective world.
We have the technologies, resources and contacts, we just aren't using them. Kind of like self euthanization?
Zarkov
QUOTE
a one degree increase in the ocean water temperature in the areas of the Gulf Of Mexico and in the ocean off the coast of the U.S.
This might be terminal change,



yes, but this temperature rise is not because of excess heat

it is cause by the loss of the oceans ability to lose heat via evaporation

Why ?

because of the resident ubiquitous petroleum oil layer on the sea inhibiting heat loss via evaporation

and yes you are correct, these changes are terminal and will eventually lead to the extinction of LIFE on this planet because an Ice Age will result after the worldwide drought.

And unfortunately the oil companies are not out there claiming responsibility for their act of war upon the world.
Montec
Hello all

May Alcanivorax borkumensis live long and prosper. (This is a newly defined class of oil eating bacteria)

smile.gif

barakn
Here are some images that dramatically illustrate the effects of the petroleum layer Zarkov mentions:

One
Two
Three
Quantum_Conundrum
QUOTE (gregconquest+Dec 14 2007, 04:03 AM)
This makes for a difficult search, and there is a lot of hyperbole on climate change, so pardon me if I have missed a rational discussion of this topic . . .

Are there any other comprehensive scientific investigations into climate change going on now? Or is it only the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"?

The science of climate change is a field that is wayyyy too broad for any one person to understand, and all the discussion I've heard on this is always one person quoting one piece of evidence, and the other quoting another piece. Ice core CO2 levels, methane vs. CO2, volcanoes belching and cows farting, Martian polar ice caps melting, . . . It's all missing the forest for the trees rolleyes.gif

Specifics of climatology do not really matter for you and me since we cannot weigh them properly in the overall scheme. Only an accurate overall view is worthwhile.

It seems to me there are only two topics appropriate for amateurs to discuss about climate change:
1) Is the agency putting fourth a theory credible? Did they arrive at their theory transparently?
2) Has their data been validated by an independent agency? Have their "experiments" been reproduced as is normal in science?

Trying to elaborate a little further, I can be an amateur evolutionary scientist, finding fossils and cataloging them myself, and I understand enough about evolutionary theory to notice if something is out of place. But there is no way I can be an amateur climate change scientist. So, the only way for me to appraise the science of climate change, and the only persuasion I can try and give to my inquiring acquaintances, is discussion of the scientific bodies putting fourth theories.

So, is the IPCC the only game in town? Has anyone seen this discussion anywhere else?

Thank you.
Greg Conquest

Most "climate change" is related to rebound from the Little Ice Age.

Explode a few class 5-7 volcanoes all at once, as per the middle ages and victorian age erruptions, and you get a frozen new york harbor and a frozen delaware river, and eventually a "year without a summer".

It has taken a few centuries for the earth to return to its medieval conditions, but it is almost back to normal, and now alarmists such as the Weather Channel are screaming bloody murder.
lengould
I feel it's important, pov anyone unfamiliar just browsing through, to note that the fact that your happy little concesus of a half-dozen energetic amateur AGW sceptics is no longer considered worth rebutting by any mainstreamers doesn't make them any more credible.

Where the heck do you guys get the energy anyway? Coal-powered doubters, I suppose. wink.gif
Zarkov
[CODE]Most "climate change" is related to rebound from the Little Ice Age.[QUOTE]

LOL

the coming Ice Age has nothing to do with the past.....

Ice Clouds born from dry air are covering the planet... and y'all have brought it upon yourselves because you have fouled the waters of the world with your plaything... oil

nasty lot
you never ever thought of the future, the children.... just thought of yourselves and MONEY

Well freeze in HELL
yor_on
Hmm:)
Here In Sweden we've had the rainiest and mildest 'winter' i can remember.
Today its like being in California of old with a mild rain and very cloudy.
So I think the next ten years will be a turning point for us:)

But as for how it will express itself?
I guess that it may change very quickly as more and reinforcements 'do battle' with each other.
It seems as USA had had some strange weather too, with lots of storms?
Australia is still in a very 'dry' period if i got it right.

And the car industrys now call themselves green:)
I think that China will do the same about their Coal works too:)
As soon as that Olympiad starts
adoucette
QUOTE (yor_on+Feb 24 2008, 06:46 AM)
Hmm:)
Here In Sweden we've had the rainiest and mildest 'winter' i can remember.
Today its like being in California of old with a mild rain and very cloudy.
So I think the next ten years will be a turning point for us:)


Hmm?

January had a global average temp that was 0.17 C BELOW the 20th century average temps.

The extent of this cooling is fairly large since we ended the 20th century with global temps averaging ~ 0.6 C degrees ABOVE the 20th century average, and with MOST of the warming in the WINTER months in the Northern Hemisphere.


Arthur
yor_on
That's ok:)
I'm talking about home::))

But we'll see, won't we Arthur.
And I still say that we have to wait a little for the real 'fun' to begin.
adoucette
QUOTE (yor_on+Feb 24 2008, 09:06 AM)
But we'll see, won't we Arthur.
And I still say that we have to wait a little for the real 'fun' to begin.
Bultrox
Debate or Discussion on GW true or a fiction is not popular when you come into 2008,
Maybe you all live in the past?
Dont you know the opinion of the candidates of American Presedent?

They mainly Support a cap-and-trade system, and maybe another system: a dual Currency Model(Whitency and Greency) will be popular.

and Carbon Tax will be used in Canada:
B.C. introduces carbon tax
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