The latest info on Hurricane suggests 1) low wind shear for several days, 2) a juicy air mass it is embedded in, 3) warming sea surface temperatures. Thes are conducive conditions for further strengthening. I read last night from a weather researcher's blog that the overall atmospheric conditions, meaning wind flows/intensities over land mass in addition to the Trades, as well as the ENSO and the NAO, look similar to the prevailing conditions of the mid-1950's - a period of numerous East Coast storms. So it is not surprising that Irene might follow suit. Not all our most accurate models forecast this, but most do, including the Euro, which hasn't failed miserably in the last 3 years either with tropics or East Coast blizzards. The chaotic HWRF puts the storm right up the West Coast of Florida, which would be especially devastating, and the respected GFDL was starting to follow suit although I haven't seen it's latest run.
But the majority of the ensembles and suites send the thing right up the coast, as a hurricane. They can and will change, but we will have to watch the other players as it approaches. A llc that moves off the coast later this week can be a drawing factor, awa the storm's intensification. For now, it's still far away, and there is time to be diligent. Less time if you are S. Florida resident however - that means you MP...
QUOTE (soundhertz+Aug 22 2011, 10:58 AM)
For now, it's still far away, and there is time to be diligent. Less time if you are S. Florida resident however - that means you MP...
I'm ready. CBS structure with hurricane strapped roof trusses, 8-gauge steel storm shutters and a 15k watt gas powered genny. Forget bottled water and battery-powered fans, my hurricane parties involve refrigerated beer and A/C.
I'm ready. CBS structure with hurricane strapped roof trusses, 8-gauge steel storm shutters and a 15k watt gas powered genny. Forget bottled water and battery-powered fans, my hurricane parties involve refrigerated beer and A/C.
I'm not surprised 
But I didn't notice any 'clock-times' on your list. In uniform these days as you once prognosticized? Not up to date with events. Munchkin must be what, 2?
If that thing goes to 4 tho, don't f--- around, because it'll be a big 4, not Charlie.
But I didn't notice any 'clock-times' on your list. In uniform these days as you once prognosticized? Not up to date with events. Munchkin must be what, 2?
If that thing goes to 4 tho, don't f--- around, because it'll be a big 4, not Charlie.
Irene stalled for awhile and dropped pressure . Gives a little more weight to the East Coast fall, less weight to West Florida and the Gulf fall. The scenario looks fairly straightforward: there's a high over Arkansas whose ridge extends into the Eastern Gulf. There's a high over East Atl. Ocean with a far reaching tho weak peninsula of a ridge all the way to West Atl. Ocean. There is a channel between the two about half as wide as the system, and a large low North whose trough extends down just about to the channel. It's a red carpet for Irene should she accept. Not that we want her to. But if she keeps stalling, there's going to be some changes in size strength and shape of the players affecting her.
atm the trend is better for Florida, especially Gulf side, and a little nore worrisome for Mid-Atlantic in terms of strength of storm.
TWC has Irene in Philly's forecast next Sunday, calling it "Heavy Rain and Wind". I thought that curious; I've never seen potential tropics in our forecast so far out.
edit:
Here is the ECMWF url. I assume this link will work. I provided this sincce it's accuracy has been fine.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...!!step/
btw Irene is moving respectably again in it's traditional heading, WNW, hinting at NW, which is the worst scenario for the Bahamas. They're not saying it yet, but if this greatly intensifiesfast, not slowly it could sweep right around the East Atlantic high and miss the Mid Atlantic or most of it. Wishful thinking of course, but the opposite is more expected: the weaker it is, or the more slowly it develops, the closer it goes to Fla; the faster/stronger it develops, the more those models will move east to NC or even Va. Both high pressure domes are pretty fixed, so the welcome mat remains for awhile.
atm the trend is better for Florida, especially Gulf side, and a little nore worrisome for Mid-Atlantic in terms of strength of storm.
TWC has Irene in Philly's forecast next Sunday, calling it "Heavy Rain and Wind". I thought that curious; I've never seen potential tropics in our forecast so far out.
edit:
Here is the ECMWF url. I assume this link will work. I provided this sincce it's accuracy has been fine.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...!!step/
btw Irene is moving respectably again in it's traditional heading, WNW, hinting at NW, which is the worst scenario for the Bahamas. They're not saying it yet, but if this greatly intensifiesfast, not slowly it could sweep right around the East Atlantic high and miss the Mid Atlantic or most of it. Wishful thinking of course, but the opposite is more expected: the weaker it is, or the more slowly it develops, the closer it goes to Fla; the faster/stronger it develops, the more those models will move east to NC or even Va. Both high pressure domes are pretty fixed, so the welcome mat remains for awhile.
The data has now confirmed that Irene's cylinder has reached the 10,000 ft. level of solid thunderstorms. That is a positive stage in it's formation. Things should be ramping up at this point, and I go out on a limb a little and say tomorrow may be a new world in the tropics. Euro may even be conservative.
At the moment the good news for the E. Coast is that the far northern low is sending short waves down (spinoffs of itself that themselves organize) that are visibly chewing on the high pressure dome in East central Atlantic. Since storms that travel up the coast hook on to the fast NE winds that start around Delaware Bay, it will give Irene quite a thrust forward, and it's mass will shove into the weakened dome's boundary, and thus go more NE. No one knows how strong the effect of the eroding of the dome will be or how hard Irene will slam into the dome since we are still 4 days away from that event, but we can say that this particular scenario would definitely not move Irene west.
The bad news is that record warm waters exist off the entire East Coast, which would not allow Irene to weaken like tropical systems typically do at this latitude. There should definitely be some weakening nevertheless though.
The main issue atm is how far Irene deviates West from the present predicted track, as any deviation West will keep Irene closer to the coast down the line. Right now she is heading more West than anticipated. Hopefully it's a wobble and not a trend.
One other consideration is Eyewall Replacement Cycle, which in a perfect world, first causes a weakening, then oftentimes a stronger storm after completion. Now - these cycles take a while to complete. Many storms have hit the U.S. as a weakened storm because they did so during the cycle, in which pressures rise and wind weakens. NHC is expecting a cycle to occur especially if this goes C4 (most 4 and 5 storms do this routinely; many 3s don't). It is very probable that the cycle will occur as Irene is entering relatively colder waters with increasing shear. The cycle would then be compromised, thereby greatly weakening the storm for us.
TWC has a really good guy now, Brian Norcross. He makes TWC worth paying attention to again.
Perhaps the best news is that atm there does not appear to be any players at all that would move Irene West into the NE lands. But nothing is cast in stone. Nobody - not the models nor a single meteorologist saw the Canadian Low delivering shortwaves even 2 days ago. And that one single feature is the single one that could save all of us. The one feature that eluded everybody could be the most important single feature of all. That's how meteorology is.
The bad news is that record warm waters exist off the entire East Coast, which would not allow Irene to weaken like tropical systems typically do at this latitude. There should definitely be some weakening nevertheless though.
The main issue atm is how far Irene deviates West from the present predicted track, as any deviation West will keep Irene closer to the coast down the line. Right now she is heading more West than anticipated. Hopefully it's a wobble and not a trend.
One other consideration is Eyewall Replacement Cycle, which in a perfect world, first causes a weakening, then oftentimes a stronger storm after completion. Now - these cycles take a while to complete. Many storms have hit the U.S. as a weakened storm because they did so during the cycle, in which pressures rise and wind weakens. NHC is expecting a cycle to occur especially if this goes C4 (most 4 and 5 storms do this routinely; many 3s don't). It is very probable that the cycle will occur as Irene is entering relatively colder waters with increasing shear. The cycle would then be compromised, thereby greatly weakening the storm for us.
TWC has a really good guy now, Brian Norcross. He makes TWC worth paying attention to again.
Perhaps the best news is that atm there does not appear to be any players at all that would move Irene West into the NE lands. But nothing is cast in stone. Nobody - not the models nor a single meteorologist saw the Canadian Low delivering shortwaves even 2 days ago. And that one single feature is the single one that could save all of us. The one feature that eluded everybody could be the most important single feature of all. That's how meteorology is.
here's a consideration: You can buy solar powered LED flashlights. I have a 1.5"x1.5" light that charges even on cloudy days. Bought it at a convenience store for a buck...and this'll never burn your house down as a candle can.
Although I'm not on the East Coast, I have a couple of "crank" LED flashlights that cost a buck-fifty. They've been working well for several years now as my wife can attest to when ever I crank it up in front of the TV to exercise my arms. 
I like the whirrring sound as I always attempt to max out the revs.
By the way.... I like your ongoing analysis of this developing storm.
I like the whirrring sound as I always attempt to max out the revs.By the way.... I like your ongoing analysis of this developing storm.
QUOTE
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2214Z WED AUG 24 2011
NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...
SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
2214Z WED AUG 24 2011
NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...
SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP
I would think this has to do with worry about lack of forward progression and shape of the trough that must be out of the CONUS for Irene not to start sliding that way.
Think of this as a golf course with lows as troughs and highs as domes, of different shapes and heights. The hurricane will flow like the golf ball, but obviously there are many other factors.
But already HWRF and most notably ECMWF have noticeably shifted Irene back westwards, and that stubborn trough is the likely culprit. Official NHC guidance has somewhat followed suit, and between you and me, all this is slightly worrisome. The great statistical trend would suggest that this thing curve NE and fast, barely raking anybody. But when I see where it is, and that it needs to start turning seriously North to miss Florida, this meteorological message makes sense.
From NHC @ 5AM:
Perhaps it's me, but there does not seem to be the urgency that say we had with Ike approaching Galveston etc. The population of that area pales compared to the NE - the single highest pop density and pop numbers in the nation. On CNN, Libya concerns have eclipsed the hurricane 24/7 for 3 days now. Let's keep in mind that this is a storm the size of Ike, and the larger the storm, the longer both intensification AND weakening take. IOW, the strong shear and cooler waters that Irene will encounter North of Delaware Bay, which would have a fast and dramatic impact on a more commonly sized storm, will be hard put to do similar to Irene in a similar time frame.
For the same reason, we need to be concerned about storm surge. When Katrina hit, it was a low-ish C3, much less fearsome than the C5 it was previously. So why, did everybody ask, was the surge so disproportionate to the C3 status? Same reason as above - the larger the storm, the slower any change takes to fully materialize. Katrina was effectively a C3 with a C5 surge, because it's weakening right before landfall had no effect on the giant forward thrust it had maintained because of size and mass. Size and mass does not change quickly when it starts spinning more slowly. We should prepare for similar with this behemoth. The further West the storm hits from currently expected position, the worse it is for NYC, as this city is very much a below street level city also. Please keep in mind that we now have models tracking over land that yesterday were over the ocean.
Philly/Balt/DC are not in the sustained hurricane force wind disc, but the further West we go in the track, the closer that disc gets. Perhaps as long as the cities are not in that wind field, the reasoning is don't create false panic. But it's 3 days out; we will see. Just have easy eating food, lots of water, flashlights/candles/batteries/ and a MANUAL CAN OPENER - the single most wished for thing after many 'lights out' events. Protein bars + multi-vites + water is all a person needs for quite a while if it comes to the quick. Another thing that people overlook is tp...
One more concern: there is a lot of rain falling today on already plentifully wet ground; on the same ground that will be visited by Irene.
EDIT:
Don't listen to me; here it is from Dr. Masters. This statement appeared at 11:11AM, about 10 minutes ago:
QUOTE
he initial motion continues to be about 315/10. There has been no
change to the track forecast reasoning. Irene should turn
northward as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge
during the next 48 hours. Thereafter...a shortwave trough moving
through the Great Lakes is likely to turn the hurricane toward the
north-northeast. In the latter part of the forecast
period...global models show the shortwave bypassing Irene and the
hurricane becoming embedded within a broad and slow-moving
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States. This
steering pattern should prevent Irene from moving well offshore of
the northeastern states. The official track forecast has been
shifted very slightly to the west of the previous one and is
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope...which is bracketed
by the U.K. Met. Office model on the east and the GFDL model on the
west.
There is little doubt Irene is a little West of expectations, and this statement is a little disconcerting. If it wasn't the Euro trending so far West, NHC wouldn't be as concerned, but that isn't the case.change to the track forecast reasoning. Irene should turn
northward as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge
during the next 48 hours. Thereafter...a shortwave trough moving
through the Great Lakes is likely to turn the hurricane toward the
north-northeast. In the latter part of the forecast
period...global models show the shortwave bypassing Irene and the
hurricane becoming embedded within a broad and slow-moving
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States. This
steering pattern should prevent Irene from moving well offshore of
the northeastern states. The official track forecast has been
shifted very slightly to the west of the previous one and is
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope...which is bracketed
by the U.K. Met. Office model on the east and the GFDL model on the
west.
Perhaps it's me, but there does not seem to be the urgency that say we had with Ike approaching Galveston etc. The population of that area pales compared to the NE - the single highest pop density and pop numbers in the nation. On CNN, Libya concerns have eclipsed the hurricane 24/7 for 3 days now. Let's keep in mind that this is a storm the size of Ike, and the larger the storm, the longer both intensification AND weakening take. IOW, the strong shear and cooler waters that Irene will encounter North of Delaware Bay, which would have a fast and dramatic impact on a more commonly sized storm, will be hard put to do similar to Irene in a similar time frame.
For the same reason, we need to be concerned about storm surge. When Katrina hit, it was a low-ish C3, much less fearsome than the C5 it was previously. So why, did everybody ask, was the surge so disproportionate to the C3 status? Same reason as above - the larger the storm, the slower any change takes to fully materialize. Katrina was effectively a C3 with a C5 surge, because it's weakening right before landfall had no effect on the giant forward thrust it had maintained because of size and mass. Size and mass does not change quickly when it starts spinning more slowly. We should prepare for similar with this behemoth. The further West the storm hits from currently expected position, the worse it is for NYC, as this city is very much a below street level city also. Please keep in mind that we now have models tracking over land that yesterday were over the ocean.
Philly/Balt/DC are not in the sustained hurricane force wind disc, but the further West we go in the track, the closer that disc gets. Perhaps as long as the cities are not in that wind field, the reasoning is don't create false panic. But it's 3 days out; we will see. Just have easy eating food, lots of water, flashlights/candles/batteries/ and a MANUAL CAN OPENER - the single most wished for thing after many 'lights out' events. Protein bars + multi-vites + water is all a person needs for quite a while if it comes to the quick. Another thing that people overlook is tp...
One more concern: there is a lot of rain falling today on already plentifully wet ground; on the same ground that will be visited by Irene.
EDIT:
Don't listen to me; here it is from Dr. Masters. This statement appeared at 11:11AM, about 10 minutes ago:
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| he initial motion continues to be about 315/10. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Irene should turn northward as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. Thereafter...a shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes is likely to turn the hurricane toward the north-northeast. In the latter part of the forecast period...global models show the shortwave bypassing Irene and the hurricane becoming embedded within a broad and slow-moving mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States. This steering pattern should prevent Irene from moving well offshore of the northeastern states. The official track forecast has been shifted very slightly to the west of the previous one and is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope...which is bracketed by the U.K. Met. Office model on the east and the GFDL model on the west. |
There is little doubt Irene is a little West of expectations, and this statement is a little disconcerting. If it wasn't the Euro trending so far West, NHC wouldn't be as concerned, but that isn't the case.
Perhaps it's me, but there does not seem to be the urgency that say we had with Ike approaching Galveston etc. The population of that area pales compared to the NE - the single highest pop density and pop numbers in the nation. On CNN, Libya concerns have eclipsed the hurricane 24/7 for 3 days now. Let's keep in mind that this is a storm the size of Ike, and the larger the storm, the longer both intensification AND weakening take. IOW, the strong shear and cooler waters that Irene will encounter North of Delaware Bay, which would have a fast and dramatic impact on a more commonly sized storm, will be hard put to do similar to Irene in a similar time frame.
For the same reason, we need to be concerned about storm surge. When Katrina hit, it was a low-ish C3, much less fearsome than the C5 it was previously. So why, did everybody ask, was the surge so disproportionate to the C3 status? Same reason as above - the larger the storm, the slower any change takes to fully materialize. Katrina was effectively a C3 with a C5 surge, because it's weakening right before landfall had no effect on the giant forward thrust it had maintained because of size and mass. Size and mass does not change quickly when it starts spinning more slowly. We should prepare for similar with this behemoth. The further West the storm hits from currently expected position, the worse it is for NYC, as this city is very much a below street level city also. Please keep in mind that we now have models tracking over land that yesterday were over the ocean.
Philly/Balt/DC are not in the sustained hurricane force wind disc, but the further West we go in the track, the closer that disc gets. Perhaps as long as the cities are not in that wind field, the reasoning is don't create false panic. But it's 3 days out; we will see. Just have easy eating food, lots of water, flashlights/candles/batteries/ and a MANUAL CAN OPENER - the single most wished for thing after many 'lights out' events. Protein bars + multi-vites + water is all a person needs for quite a while if it comes to the quick. Another thing that people overlook is tp...
One more concern: there is a lot of rain falling today on already plentifully wet ground; on the same ground that will be visited by Irene.
EDIT:
Don't listen to me; here it is from Dr. Masters. This statement appeared at 11:11AM, about 10 minutes ago:Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone.
Perhaps it's me, but there does not seem to be the urgency that say we had with Ike approaching Galveston etc. The population of that area pales compared to the NE - the single highest pop density and pop numbers in the nation. On CNN, Libya concerns have eclipsed the hurricane 24/7 for 3 days now. Let's keep in mind that this is a storm the size of Ike, and the larger the storm, the longer both intensification AND weakening take. IOW, the strong shear and cooler waters that Irene will encounter North of Delaware Bay, which would have a fast and dramatic impact on a more commonly sized storm, will be hard put to do similar to Irene in a similar time frame.
For the same reason, we need to be concerned about storm surge. When Katrina hit, it was a low-ish C3, much less fearsome than the C5 it was previously. So why, did everybody ask, was the surge so disproportionate to the C3 status? Same reason as above - the larger the storm, the slower any change takes to fully materialize. Katrina was effectively a C3 with a C5 surge, because it's weakening right before landfall had no effect on the giant forward thrust it had maintained because of size and mass. Size and mass does not change quickly when it starts spinning more slowly. We should prepare for similar with this behemoth. The further West the storm hits from currently expected position, the worse it is for NYC, as this city is very much a below street level city also. Please keep in mind that we now have models tracking over land that yesterday were over the ocean.
Philly/Balt/DC are not in the sustained hurricane force wind disc, but the further West we go in the track, the closer that disc gets. Perhaps as long as the cities are not in that wind field, the reasoning is don't create false panic. But it's 3 days out; we will see. Just have easy eating food, lots of water, flashlights/candles/batteries/ and a MANUAL CAN OPENER - the single most wished for thing after many 'lights out' events. Protein bars + multi-vites + water is all a person needs for quite a while if it comes to the quick. Another thing that people overlook is tp...
One more concern: there is a lot of rain falling today on already plentifully wet ground; on the same ground that will be visited by Irene.
EDIT:
Don't listen to me; here it is from Dr. Masters. This statement appeared at 11:11AM, about 10 minutes ago:Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
One mor thing, and this is the crux of my concern:
I am unhappy to say that this present scenario is appropriate for QC's "Horrible Hurricane Scenario". I have six 70'+ tall oaks all capable of crushing the house. And that's a darn sight better scenario than living at the shore.
One mor thing, and this is the crux of my concern:
QUOTE
Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.
Bolds are his.I am unhappy to say that this present scenario is appropriate for QC's "Horrible Hurricane Scenario". I have six 70'+ tall oaks all capable of crushing the house. And that's a darn sight better scenario than living at the shore.
I heard that Jim Cantore has headed to NYC.
We will have to watch who wins the battle between all the dry air entraining into Irene and the hot waters she will be traversing over soon. There's also a significant NNE wobble, and although the mid Atlantic dome looks impenetrable (the low is not prevailing against it), that certainly bears watching. We still have a couple of other possibilities of a lessened effect. We will be much more sure tomorrow when we see how Irene has assimilated the pluses and minuses. If the radar starts showing distinct circles/ovals of deep red, that could indicate 'hot towers' forming, an indication of a system ramping up. If more dry air can get in, it can create all sorts of havoc with the organization and integrity of the storm, good news for us.
Edit:
I forgot to mention something that people are wondering: why the storm winds stay put when the pressure keeps dropping? It's at 942 officially, and possibly 937, a steep drop from when the storm was 115 mph 18 hours ago, and it's still 115mph, and so a larger diameter of the storm farther out is increasing in wind speed, in the TS range. Not necessarily good news; it might make it even larger, and since pressure -is- dropping, winds could increase still, over the hot water tomorrow.
Edit:
I forgot to mention something that people are wondering: why the storm winds stay put when the pressure keeps dropping? It's at 942 officially, and possibly 937, a steep drop from when the storm was 115 mph 18 hours ago, and it's still 115mph, and so a larger diameter of the storm farther out is increasing in wind speed, in the TS range. Not necessarily good news; it might make it even larger, and since pressure -is- dropping, winds could increase still, over the hot water tomorrow.
Irene is looking much worse than yesterday. Which of course may not mean anything. It has a long road over hot water still. The surge will remain the same. And it's not just the storm surge that the coast has to be wary of. Here is a link to predicted wave heights:
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_wave
There may be another eyewall replacement cycle which could be the reason for the loss of eye and some weakening.
Hard to say what that might mean. If there is sufficient time, it could propel the system to ramp up a number at the last few hours before landfall/ coastal scrape (whatever the case will turn out to be). That's likely less than a 50% chance. It could also keep the winds weaker from this point on, and that's a better chance. But these systems can do things not seen or expected at all, as in Charlie going to C4 right before landfall. Luckily his surge didn't have time to be a C4 surge.
Keep in mind that this is a monster in size: NHC has found hurricane force winds nearly 100 miles from the center (TS winds = 290 miles out). As said before, weakening of the storm means weakening of the spin. It has less to do with rainfall amounts or storm surge. Irene will have a C3 storm surge, and regardless of any weakening, the surge will actually increase if the storm's forward motion increases. The Destructive Potential Rating for Irene's surge and waves is a 5.1 out of 6; that's a C4 number from a C2 storm due to sheer size and ability to push so much water. This storm surge will be a very wide one
The wind situation is better for some, since the eroding of Irene's whole left flank will keep the worst winds to the right. This is great news for everyone to the left of NYC.
Probably the biggest concern is how saturated the ground is in E. Pa and NJ. There should be a lot of inland flooding.
Whether the weakening continues, or whether it strengthens again, doesn't really matter. It would if it was a smaller storm, but size exponentially increases wind-down time rate. Only a great increase or reduction of intensity would translate to surface conditions quickly.
One more thing: if it becomes a land falling storm, the upper winds may rifle down to the surface. Irene's top winds are high up, and have never approached the surface. Gusts of 140mph were recorded yesterday high up around 750mb level. Not saying we will see that, but we could see the occasional wild gust if it landfalls.
Let's keep fingers crossed. Overall, we have a slightly better scenario than yesterday, and the trend is encouraging.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_wave
There may be another eyewall replacement cycle which could be the reason for the loss of eye and some weakening.
Hard to say what that might mean. If there is sufficient time, it could propel the system to ramp up a number at the last few hours before landfall/ coastal scrape (whatever the case will turn out to be). That's likely less than a 50% chance. It could also keep the winds weaker from this point on, and that's a better chance. But these systems can do things not seen or expected at all, as in Charlie going to C4 right before landfall. Luckily his surge didn't have time to be a C4 surge.
Keep in mind that this is a monster in size: NHC has found hurricane force winds nearly 100 miles from the center (TS winds = 290 miles out). As said before, weakening of the storm means weakening of the spin. It has less to do with rainfall amounts or storm surge. Irene will have a C3 storm surge, and regardless of any weakening, the surge will actually increase if the storm's forward motion increases. The Destructive Potential Rating for Irene's surge and waves is a 5.1 out of 6; that's a C4 number from a C2 storm due to sheer size and ability to push so much water. This storm surge will be a very wide one
The wind situation is better for some, since the eroding of Irene's whole left flank will keep the worst winds to the right. This is great news for everyone to the left of NYC.
Probably the biggest concern is how saturated the ground is in E. Pa and NJ. There should be a lot of inland flooding.
Whether the weakening continues, or whether it strengthens again, doesn't really matter. It would if it was a smaller storm, but size exponentially increases wind-down time rate. Only a great increase or reduction of intensity would translate to surface conditions quickly.
One more thing: if it becomes a land falling storm, the upper winds may rifle down to the surface. Irene's top winds are high up, and have never approached the surface. Gusts of 140mph were recorded yesterday high up around 750mb level. Not saying we will see that, but we could see the occasional wild gust if it landfalls.
Let's keep fingers crossed. Overall, we have a slightly better scenario than yesterday, and the trend is encouraging.
The continuing dry air is good news. I haven't read a single met yet who thinks Irene can recover the rest of her eyewall. She still has an arc of it in her strong NE quadrant, but that's it. This could affect rainfall, but won't affect the surge too much, but less wind is especially good news for NYC.
I may yet live on my 40 mile drive home at 3AM Sunday morning in SE Pa.
I may yet live on my 40 mile drive home at 3AM Sunday morning in SE Pa.
Here in Philly area we are forecast to receive 65mph gusts when the closest approach occurs. Although a C1, it has a pressure of a C3, so that could allow the storm to maintain over land. It seems a little west of predictions to me. However, banning a a severe change in direction, this shouldn't matter with a storm of this size. It's a better scenario than the original C3 storm we thought we were going to have here; such is the complexity of tropical systems reacting within the East Coast arena, far from their breeding grounds further south.
QUOTE (soundhertz+Aug 26 2011, 09:52 PM)
I may yet live on my 40 mile drive home at 3AM Sunday morning in SE Pa.
Man, be careful.
Man, be careful.
My gig just got cancelled 
Simply an amazing storm. I am mindboggled by the pics, no matter what format they are. I am researching if there's ever been a C1 storm like this. It's pressure actually dropped over NC. It's forward speed is atypically slow, although finally some indication of increase is seen in the last couple of frames. Although any increase also affects surge to our detriment, we need to get this thing out of here. It's too big to move slowly. That could produce unprecedented devastation. So this latest frame or two is encouraging.
Soon there will be talk of the interaction between Irene and the trough up north. There's already been a highway of inflow from the Caribbean that's added energy all day. Now the trough.
There has been a jet that forecasters were concerned with intermingling with Irene, and there was a moist frontal boundary - that was what the storms last night were - expected to combine with Irene. Well folks, all these players have not disappointed. May I say synergy? This storm certainly looks to maintain, and just that is saying a lot, because there's a lot being maintained. Forecasters are especially worried about the moist frontal boundary being utilized by Irene. They have actually upped our totals to 12" of rainfall. Wind gusts in the Philly area are now forecasted up to 70mph.
Simply an amazing storm. I am mindboggled by the pics, no matter what format they are. I am researching if there's ever been a C1 storm like this. It's pressure actually dropped over NC. It's forward speed is atypically slow, although finally some indication of increase is seen in the last couple of frames. Although any increase also affects surge to our detriment, we need to get this thing out of here. It's too big to move slowly. That could produce unprecedented devastation. So this latest frame or two is encouraging.
Soon there will be talk of the interaction between Irene and the trough up north. There's already been a highway of inflow from the Caribbean that's added energy all day. Now the trough.
There has been a jet that forecasters were concerned with intermingling with Irene, and there was a moist frontal boundary - that was what the storms last night were - expected to combine with Irene. Well folks, all these players have not disappointed. May I say synergy? This storm certainly looks to maintain, and just that is saying a lot, because there's a lot being maintained. Forecasters are especially worried about the moist frontal boundary being utilized by Irene. They have actually upped our totals to 12" of rainfall. Wind gusts in the Philly area are now forecasted up to 70mph.
Just in case anyone is interested to see comments regarding Irene....
This makes me cringe thinking the likes of these are my fellow citizens:
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2011/08/28/...-on-ny/#comment
click on the "comments" on the bar to see the over abundant nutjobs.
This makes me cringe thinking the likes of these are my fellow citizens:
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2011/08/28/...-on-ny/#comment
click on the "comments" on the bar to see the over abundant nutjobs.
I am sure this storm will be eagerly studied. It destroys the old record of pressure vs. wind speed, by at least 20 mb. I have not found a larger tropical system that has ever existed in the Atlantic/Caribbean basin. This should mean that no other storm has ever pushed it's power so far out from the center; this is what non-tropical, temperate systems do, and yet there was always a warm core with the system, a classic feature of tropical systems.
My power is finally back on. Every stream here, and we have a lot, is above major flood stage. I drove past 5 submerged bridges.
Some waterways in Pa have broken the original flood level set by 1972's TS Agnes. My rain gauge in Northern Montgomery County reads 6.7", with the final last band of precip and 40 mph winds just hitting me now. Unfortunately on the crew out front too, putting in a safety ground for the 17k line that went down up the other road from a giant tree. This is being duplicated over hundreds and hundreds of thousands of square miles.
Bloy, it isn't worth the mood it gives you to read that stuff. Would relatively happy stable people react like that? Would you consider those comments indicative of relatively sound sane thinking? There are very bitter people, and they wish to share. I wouldn't accept their generosity.
My power is finally back on. Every stream here, and we have a lot, is above major flood stage. I drove past 5 submerged bridges.
Some waterways in Pa have broken the original flood level set by 1972's TS Agnes. My rain gauge in Northern Montgomery County reads 6.7", with the final last band of precip and 40 mph winds just hitting me now. Unfortunately on the crew out front too, putting in a safety ground for the 17k line that went down up the other road from a giant tree. This is being duplicated over hundreds and hundreds of thousands of square miles.
Bloy, it isn't worth the mood it gives you to read that stuff. Would relatively happy stable people react like that? Would you consider those comments indicative of relatively sound sane thinking? There are very bitter people, and they wish to share. I wouldn't accept their generosity.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/us/31flo...dlines&emc=tha2
Not a good year for the U.S. We have yet to realize the full impact of the Texas and surroundings' drought/heat wave.
Meanwhile TS Katia is too far away for specifics. In general, a storm organizing this fast, and moving well, wants to go northerly due to Coriolis force, and a trough looks to facilitate the most common trend. Irene was anything but common in any way, but Katia, so far, does not look iconoclastic.
Not a good year for the U.S. We have yet to realize the full impact of the Texas and surroundings' drought/heat wave.
Meanwhile TS Katia is too far away for specifics. In general, a storm organizing this fast, and moving well, wants to go northerly due to Coriolis force, and a trough looks to facilitate the most common trend. Irene was anything but common in any way, but Katia, so far, does not look iconoclastic. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 12% chance of hitting Canada, a 5% chance of hitting Florida, and a 62% chance of never hitting land.
Of greater interest is a developing situation in the Gulf. It's a complicated scenario that may never pan out, but all major models suggest differently. Very generally, an existing wave to the SSE or so of the Gulf will find some semblance of spawning grounds despite notable shear. The models differ from there. A plus is a good chance of rain to some drought stricken areas while the system develops near Texas. The issue is no source of steering, other than very very lightly to the East. A tropical system wandering aimlessly in the Gulf is not a comfortable scenario with such heat potential in these waters. Still many days away tho. Anything could happen, including nothing.
This was my concern all along. The three systems ARE going to interact after all. We still don't know, and most unfortunately, we may not know until 'nowcasting' occurs. Katia is not going to hit the hot water I thought it would - apparently - but the other criteria still support strengthening, and sadly, size. NHC does not have a lot of data to go on for Katia atm, but it will improve in a couple of days. There's no change. However since she is getting stronger, there should be a more poleward turn. But it's really up to the interaction of Lee with the front, where the trough actually develops, and how deep the trough gets. Stronger storms tend more northward, bigger storms turn more slowly; these parameters will combine with whatever drawing power the future trough will be...
Lee is still quasi-tropical, but it's a rainstorm now, a big rainstorm. Local Met service is the best way to go now concerning Lee. The leftover remnant is still being predicted in the Gulf.
The next concern is that giant wave off Africa, the one responsible for the deaths in Nigeria. It's very South. Generally, storms this far South have much less likelihood of getting North enough to not get trapped in the Caribbean. So this will bear much attention next 2 weeks.
That the Susquehanna is expected to crest with a volume output per second twice the output of the Mississippi is a testament to the amount of water deluging the area. Are there any out there living in this area? I am flooded where I am too, but it's nothing like central Pa.
Katia has indeed done the models' bidding, to our great safety. She is moving 360degrees North, and the steering is firmly in place (at the moment...)
Maria has positive and negative influences in her forecast, but the models distill a general slow increase in strength. As always, if she stays weak, she can't be as easily pulled away. It's actually to our advantage, statistically, to have a stronger storm at this point; it could then miss the islands and veer NW. But Maria looks Puerto Rico bound at this juncture.
Nate...
Nothing is cast in stone with weak steering and stationary systems. Each day, all bets can be off. That is the case today. Models have no clue whatever what Nate will do. They do agree on slow general strengthening, like Maria, but we know nothing at all even 3 days out. The only perceivable player atm is a gradually westward-expanding ridge of high pressure over the central Gulf; that would push Nate into Mexico. But Nate seems to be nudging northward now and then, and if that maintains, he could mis that push. Models are sure about the ridge, but not about where Nate may float.
QUOTE
While insurers have typically covered about half of the total losses in past storms, they might end up covering less than 40 percent of the costs associated with Hurricane Irene, according to an analysis by the Kinetic Analysis Corporation. That is partly because so much damage was caused by flooding, and it is unclear how many damaged homes have flood insurance, and partly because deductibles have risen steeply in coastal areas in recent years, requiring some homeowners to cover $4,000 worth of damages or more before insurers pick up the loss.
Not a good year for the U.S. We have yet to realize the full impact of the Texas and surroundings' drought/heat wave.
Meanwhile TS Katia is too far away for specifics. In general, a storm organizing this fast, and moving well, wants to go northerly due to Coriolis force, and a trough looks to facilitate the most common trend. Irene was anything but common in any way, but Katia, so far, does not look iconoclastic.
QUOTE (->
| QUOTE |
| While insurers have typically covered about half of the total losses in past storms, they might end up covering less than 40 percent of the costs associated with Hurricane Irene, according to an analysis by the Kinetic Analysis Corporation. That is partly because so much damage was caused by flooding, and it is unclear how many damaged homes have flood insurance, and partly because deductibles have risen steeply in coastal areas in recent years, requiring some homeowners to cover $4,000 worth of damages or more before insurers pick up the loss. |
Not a good year for the U.S. We have yet to realize the full impact of the Texas and surroundings' drought/heat wave.
Meanwhile TS Katia is too far away for specifics. In general, a storm organizing this fast, and moving well, wants to go northerly due to Coriolis force, and a trough looks to facilitate the most common trend. Irene was anything but common in any way, but Katia, so far, does not look iconoclastic. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 12% chance of hitting Canada, a 5% chance of hitting Florida, and a 62% chance of never hitting land.
Of greater interest is a developing situation in the Gulf. It's a complicated scenario that may never pan out, but all major models suggest differently. Very generally, an existing wave to the SSE or so of the Gulf will find some semblance of spawning grounds despite notable shear. The models differ from there. A plus is a good chance of rain to some drought stricken areas while the system develops near Texas. The issue is no source of steering, other than very very lightly to the East. A tropical system wandering aimlessly in the Gulf is not a comfortable scenario with such heat potential in these waters. Still many days away tho. Anything could happen, including nothing.
Katia is now a hurricane. That should only help to flow more northward. Models haven't changed much. Still a couple that move it into East Coast, but there's no talk of that possibility.
The Gulf disturbance is more of a concern. The models don't have a handle on it. The ECMWF delivers a fair amount of rain to Texas, then strengthens it more and moves it into Mexico. Other models show it moving into the SE US, Central Eastern US, and most have it fairly stationary.
The Gulf disturbance is more of a concern. The models don't have a handle on it. The ECMWF delivers a fair amount of rain to Texas, then strengthens it more and moves it into Mexico. Other models show it moving into the SE US, Central Eastern US, and most have it fairly stationary.
Once again we look at a developing system of significant size, similar to Irene. This could be seen as a good thing; a small tight depression could spin up fast and furious with low shear and a conducive ceiling. It will be interesting to see how the excellent ventilation courtesy the anticyclone aloft has on how much of the large perimeter begins to spin. The Euro no longer takes it into Mexico; it seems to have found a weakness in the East dome that allows it to go North > NNE. Other models resolve similar, tho most present a prolonged period of floundering about. It's size is good then as a tremendous amount of energy will be required to get this behemoth spinning.
We can hope for a rainmaker that moves more west for Texas, but the models don't really know at all atm. The Big Easy will be ending it's drought tho, and then some, just from where the storm is. I'd emphasize though, that a stationary storm can go any direction; even tho the models are trending North, it means little right now.
Sometimes the bird's eye view paints a clearer picture. You can see the vortex of our Gulf system pretty clearly here in the last couple moments:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi...lobal/main.html
We can hope for a rainmaker that moves more west for Texas, but the models don't really know at all atm. The Big Easy will be ending it's drought tho, and then some, just from where the storm is. I'd emphasize though, that a stationary storm can go any direction; even tho the models are trending North, it means little right now.
Sometimes the bird's eye view paints a clearer picture. You can see the vortex of our Gulf system pretty clearly here in the last couple moments:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi...lobal/main.html
I didn't get to the 00Z GFS until now. GFS is concluding that the ridging is too strong at first over Katia; she moves farther West before the turn North, and scrapes the Eastern Seaboard. When I saw the Euro, I was concerned that it took Katia very far West, then turned her NE @ ~130degrees! Now the GFS takes her farther West and more Northerly. If Katia gets too far West folks, she's going to tap the hot Gulf Stream. All this is uncomfortable to say the least with a system that models intensify. We may be seeing once again the anomaly year like what happened in the mid 1950's with East Coast hurricanes. Meanwhile, two more disturbances vie @ South of Cape Verdes.
GFS:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_loo...S_SFC_WINDS_SLP
GFS:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_loo...S_SFC_WINDS_SLP
see below
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index....gulf&channel=lc
It's a double whammy for poor Texas: it's so hot and dry it has produced it's own rain-resisting shield. TD13 seems to want to go Westward, where it would be of the most help, and it is trying to expand westward also, but that Texas shield is confounding the attempts. Still, the current forecast track does bring the storm over slightly less stricken areas, so at least all the water won't be wasted on areas that don't need it.
Meanwhile Katia is almost up for grabs. Although she is headed for Irene-stricken areas if she makes it all the way, that's days away. TD13 is the main feature now, and it will be a huge rainmaker. I wouldn't say the following were it not for the large size, but this could be a bad event for some.
It's a double whammy for poor Texas: it's so hot and dry it has produced it's own rain-resisting shield. TD13 seems to want to go Westward, where it would be of the most help, and it is trying to expand westward also, but that Texas shield is confounding the attempts. Still, the current forecast track does bring the storm over slightly less stricken areas, so at least all the water won't be wasted on areas that don't need it.
Meanwhile Katia is almost up for grabs. Although she is headed for Irene-stricken areas if she makes it all the way, that's days away. TD13 is the main feature now, and it will be a huge rainmaker. I wouldn't say the following were it not for the large size, but this could be a bad event for some.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
Both systems remain weak, and both systems are tracking farther West than forecast. In both storms' cases, what the respective trough does will determine Northward movement. If Katia is tracking true West, and stays weak in the face of shear, she may miss her hookup a la the Mad Teacups, and stay West or even go SW. If you are reading this hours after the post, click on the CIMSS link; it will show real time. If Katia's center is still below 20N Latitude, she is truly trending West. Every model calls for NW so we shall see.
Lee...
messy looking storm, and can't get it's far perimeters together. It's not surprising, but perhaps Lee hasn't finished playing his games yet either. He certainly isn't supposed to be going West, but that would be a welcome move. This is precisely the perfect system that Texas needs. If Lee sheds, and shrinks his perimeter, things could unexpectedly change. Not that anybody is calling for that, but he's got heat and reasonable enough outflow, perhaps he can beat the dry air entrainment from the trough to his NW plaguing him. And other than that trough, it's a big stagnant unmoving air mass, no drawing power to find.
Both systems remain weak, and both systems are tracking farther West than forecast. In both storms' cases, what the respective trough does will determine Northward movement. If Katia is tracking true West, and stays weak in the face of shear, she may miss her hookup a la the Mad Teacups, and stay West or even go SW. If you are reading this hours after the post, click on the CIMSS link; it will show real time. If Katia's center is still below 20N Latitude, she is truly trending West. Every model calls for NW so we shall see.
Lee...
messy looking storm, and can't get it's far perimeters together. It's not surprising, but perhaps Lee hasn't finished playing his games yet either. He certainly isn't supposed to be going West, but that would be a welcome move. This is precisely the perfect system that Texas needs. If Lee sheds, and shrinks his perimeter, things could unexpectedly change. Not that anybody is calling for that, but he's got heat and reasonable enough outflow, perhaps he can beat the dry air entrainment from the trough to his NW plaguing him. And other than that trough, it's a big stagnant unmoving air mass, no drawing power to find.
Both systems have returned to forecast tracks, although Katia is still barely WNW. An interesting scenario may be developing between Katia, a strengthening trough, and remnants of Lee. These three features may begin to occupy the same general area somewhere in the Mid Atlantic or SE US. I would think meteorologists will be most curious about this, since it is an unusual situation. The trough could be a block between the 2 storms, or it may allow some mingling, depending on everybody's speed.
But Lee is a healing storm. Extreme drought areas are getting plentiful rains, even the Texas coast. Since Lee is so large, many areas are involved. There will be flooding in areas, but it should be nothing like Irene. This upcoming scenario could be very interesting tho.
But Lee is a healing storm. Extreme drought areas are getting plentiful rains, even the Texas coast. Since Lee is so large, many areas are involved. There will be flooding in areas, but it should be nothing like Irene. This upcoming scenario could be very interesting tho.
I forgot to post after previewing the last post, in which I thought Lee+Katia+the East trough would be a future possibility, and not one we can have a prognosis on yet. NHC is now echoing this (every once in a while my prescience is actually right). Also, with Katia not going NW, it's more of a possibility, even tho the Euro moves Lee NE and dissipates him before Katia arrives. I am not seeing that tho...
But...
Lee has decided to halt and nudge itself to the NW. There is no telling what may be when steering (p)layers are far away. The whole area is a stagnant quagmire of heat and still air. It could have a big impact on Lee, but the opposite is also true - Lee is certainly a force to contend with.
Meanwhile the wave that just left Africa has left 102 dead in it's wake. But it may not fare any better than Katia. We are in Phase 3 of the MJO heading to Phase 4.
The Madden/Julian Oscillation, simply said, is a thrust of a large area of atmospheric conditions conducive for rising air, thus clouds>storms. It travels equatorially round and round the globe, and like most things meteorological, it's constantly fluctuating in size shape and strength. The globe is divided up into 8 slices, and by monitoring cloud emissions, scientists can tell where the thrust is at any given time roughly, awa how strong it is. The phases of the MJO that are most helpful for hurricane development are 8 & 1. Irene did it's damage while the MJO was in Phase 2, and since it was robust and nearby, it may have helped Irene.
We are in a fortunate spot right now as Phases 7 and 8 are not due for a few weeks.
But...
Lee has decided to halt and nudge itself to the NW. There is no telling what may be when steering (p)layers are far away. The whole area is a stagnant quagmire of heat and still air. It could have a big impact on Lee, but the opposite is also true - Lee is certainly a force to contend with.Meanwhile the wave that just left Africa has left 102 dead in it's wake. But it may not fare any better than Katia. We are in Phase 3 of the MJO heading to Phase 4.
The Madden/Julian Oscillation, simply said, is a thrust of a large area of atmospheric conditions conducive for rising air, thus clouds>storms. It travels equatorially round and round the globe, and like most things meteorological, it's constantly fluctuating in size shape and strength. The globe is divided up into 8 slices, and by monitoring cloud emissions, scientists can tell where the thrust is at any given time roughly, awa how strong it is. The phases of the MJO that are most helpful for hurricane development are 8 & 1. Irene did it's damage while the MJO was in Phase 2, and since it was robust and nearby, it may have helped Irene.
We are in a fortunate spot right now as Phases 7 and 8 are not due for a few weeks.
Nothing like losing an entire post right before you post it. I'm on my buddy's PC laptop, which is nothing like my Mac, and it sure seems easy to lose posts on this thing in a thousand remarkable ways - but it is fast... Out of time now, so real quick, NHC is banking on Katia turning sharply NW ~ 8AM tomorrow morning. If it does not happen, the coast could definitely see something.
Lee is going N again, with lots of entraining dry air, that is not really hindering it. Dry air + landfalling system = tornadoes, so coastal residents need to watch their skies. If Lee moves in time to merge with the frontal boundary, rain spreads up the coast and Lee does not dissipate into nothing but morphs into an energy source for the trough.
Lee is going N again, with lots of entraining dry air, that is not really hindering it. Dry air + landfalling system = tornadoes, so coastal residents need to watch their skies. If Lee moves in time to merge with the frontal boundary, rain spreads up the coast and Lee does not dissipate into nothing but morphs into an energy source for the trough.
heh! This has become my preferred place to come now for checking up on storm systems affecting our region.
Thanks soundhertz, for taking the time!
Thanks soundhertz, for taking the time!
Well as long as I only report and don't forecast, you are in decent hands
The atmosphere is there to see, and everyone can see the same thing, but have widely divergent ideas on what may be. Statistics show how varied the outcome can be, from a set-up that looks remarkably like a similar one. Meteorology is a fascinating science because the atmosphere's exactness is only in minute forms; the outcomes are endlessly varied, like the snowflakes it makes every day.
I saw something last night of note: one of the models, maybe the Canadian, had a small tail spun off of Lee remaining in the Gulf under very conducive conditions. At least 3 more models have jumped on it today. We will have to wait for Lee to leave tho before we can detect this. Meanwhile Western La and extreme Eastern Texas, under the most severe drought ratings, are singing in the rain.
Katia is a C2 now, moving eventually into better conditions. She's also finally making the long-awaited WNW turn. Models have consistently forecast that she won't hit any islands. We now wait to see if that pans out. If it does, they will not have been too far off, despite the extended westward movement.
The atmosphere is there to see, and everyone can see the same thing, but have widely divergent ideas on what may be. Statistics show how varied the outcome can be, from a set-up that looks remarkably like a similar one. Meteorology is a fascinating science because the atmosphere's exactness is only in minute forms; the outcomes are endlessly varied, like the snowflakes it makes every day.
I saw something last night of note: one of the models, maybe the Canadian, had a small tail spun off of Lee remaining in the Gulf under very conducive conditions. At least 3 more models have jumped on it today. We will have to wait for Lee to leave tho before we can detect this. Meanwhile Western La and extreme Eastern Texas, under the most severe drought ratings, are singing in the rain.
Katia is a C2 now, moving eventually into better conditions. She's also finally making the long-awaited WNW turn. Models have consistently forecast that she won't hit any islands. We now wait to see if that pans out. If it does, they will not have been too far off, despite the extended westward movement.
Lee is not only extra-tropical but a bit hybridized as he interacts with a veritable Mothra (not quite Godzilla) of a front. This will be the leading edge of the trough that the models are basing their charitable prediction of our escape on. I did see that the ECMWF (Euro model) does indeed forecast another westward tack yet again, and still has it recurving dramatically out but definitely scraping the coast. Katia is growing, and we have to see how much more of that occurs once she is in warmer water and less shear. Already forecasted to be a 120mph storm, and Iwould say it is likely she'll get big too, especially with the air getting more juicy, buoyant, and unstable. If another dome moves in place after Katia exits the field, the MJO will be approaching us during this. We have to watch how long it meanders or whisks through the phases. The long range models certainly are seeing this already. We will see what is expected much better in a few days, especially after Katia, Lee, the trough, are all out of the Atlantic.
NAO
North Atlantic Oscillation
this is a fluctuation of strength, of a high in the Atlantic and trough off Iceland. When the high and low are weak, it is a negative index, and vice versa. The NAO has a strong effect on winter storms, but weak effect on tropical systems. However, researchers have determined that the index does correlate to where the storms may land. A positive NAO suggests a strong dome that takes the storm and either slams it into the coast or recurves it. A strongly negative index would have a dome too weak for recurvature, and thus the storm takes a westward track.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...index_mrf.shtml
This graph shows first, that the GFS has done a good job in predicting the index, and second, we see that the prediction is for a mostly neutral condition, where anything can happen. In addition to the MJO, this has to be watched also for it's effects on the players.
Back to Katia for a moment: I feel badly for NHC if Katia gets as close as the outliers say before recurving out. To see that coming your way and be told it's doing an about face; this is not something NHC wants to have to say...
NAO
North Atlantic Oscillation
this is a fluctuation of strength, of a high in the Atlantic and trough off Iceland. When the high and low are weak, it is a negative index, and vice versa. The NAO has a strong effect on winter storms, but weak effect on tropical systems. However, researchers have determined that the index does correlate to where the storms may land. A positive NAO suggests a strong dome that takes the storm and either slams it into the coast or recurves it. A strongly negative index would have a dome too weak for recurvature, and thus the storm takes a westward track.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...index_mrf.shtml
This graph shows first, that the GFS has done a good job in predicting the index, and second, we see that the prediction is for a mostly neutral condition, where anything can happen. In addition to the MJO, this has to be watched also for it's effects on the players.
Back to Katia for a moment: I feel badly for NHC if Katia gets as close as the outliers say before recurving out. To see that coming your way and be told it's doing an about face; this is not something NHC wants to have to say...
QUOTE
The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week.
From Dr. Masters.This was my concern all along. The three systems ARE going to interact after all. We still don't know, and most unfortunately, we may not know until 'nowcasting' occurs. Katia is not going to hit the hot water I thought it would - apparently - but the other criteria still support strengthening, and sadly, size. NHC does not have a lot of data to go on for Katia atm, but it will improve in a couple of days. There's no change. However since she is getting stronger, there should be a more poleward turn. But it's really up to the interaction of Lee with the front, where the trough actually develops, and how deep the trough gets. Stronger storms tend more northward, bigger storms turn more slowly; these parameters will combine with whatever drawing power the future trough will be...
Lee is still quasi-tropical, but it's a rainstorm now, a big rainstorm. Local Met service is the best way to go now concerning Lee. The leftover remnant is still being predicted in the Gulf.
The next concern is that giant wave off Africa, the one responsible for the deaths in Nigeria. It's very South. Generally, storms this far South have much less likelihood of getting North enough to not get trapped in the Caribbean. So this will bear much attention next 2 weeks.
Katia is now a C4. The models are consistent about the sharp turn, so unless there is a feature not noticeable atm, NHC is showing low odds of Katia making a full coastal hit. It remains to be seen how strong, large, and close Katia gets before turning. Katia should head more NW tho, being so powerful and more easily pulled northward. No use worrying about the other future concerns; we know about them, and there is little info this far out. Here in SE PA we are looking at another 6" rain possibly, and a repeat of Irene is hard to fathom, but our streams just can't take more than maybe 3" without flooding again.
Many uninformed people have poked fun at the 'overhype' of Irene. This link is especially for these people, but all of us could be educated a little. Keep in mind, only one of these photos is from Vermont, the state with the most damage. No other photos were available because the areas of the worst damage we haven't been able to see yet. No one can get there, and there's no power, antennae, wireless, cable, etc.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/frightening...truction-photos
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/frightening...truction-photos
As I am out of time , I 'll post the thinking of a brilliant amateur met; a physics major at UAF. He has his blog at Weather Underground.
From Levy32
http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Levi3...ml?entrynum=494
QUOTE
Hurricane Katia put on a show yesterday and made it to Cat 4 with a clear eye, which has since disappeared. Another eyewall replacement cycle was stimulated by dry air entrainment, and Katia is another example of how storms this year are struggling when they get large due to below-normal atmospheric instability across the global tropics. Katia will pass between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda as we have talked about, and should be no significant threat to anybody, which is awesome. Bermuda and Cape Cod should be aware of gusty winds and high surf, but that's about it.
Next we're going to have to solve a problem like Maria. It's either going to be in the Gulf of Mexico or from invest 95L in the central Atlantic. We will talk about the gulf first because it is the most immediate threat. In short, Lee had a tail, and that tail is sticking down towards the Yucatan. At the tail of this tail is a small area of low pressure that the models develop in a few days. This system is most likely to come northward into the weakness left by Lee and affect the north gulf coast. Some models try to take it westward into Mexico, and this is still a possibility, but I believe it is not as likely. There may be some wind shear over the gulf during this time that could limit the system's intensity, and overall the models aren't too excited about strengthening it rapidly. We will have to watch it closely as it will be a threat.
Out in the central Atlantic we have Invest 95L, which looks rather nice today with a nearly closed surface circulation, and it may become a tropical depression today or tomorrow. This will be Maria if it beats our gulf system. True to its name, it will be a problem, as it will be heading WNW towards the lesser Antilles islands. The good news is that the models don't want to strengthen 95L much before reaching the islands, but given how nice it looks now, I wouldn't bank on that idea just yet. Folks in the islands should closely monitor this system. Obviously if 95L affects the islands, then areas farther west like the United States may have to deal with it too. The good news is that because of Lee's cut-off upper low still stuck over the center of the country, a big longwave trough is going to have to dive in over the eastern U.S. to rescue the cut-off low. Thus, we may have a big trough over the eastern seaboard next week that could recurve 95L out to sea, but that is far from guaranteed, and much depends on 95L's short-term track. The ECMWF actually brings it into the Caribbean and develops it in the NW Caribbean in 10 days. Interestingly enough, this would satisfy my requirement for a storm in that area after September 15th. However, the Euro may be confusing 95L with another low that comes up and fills that role. What may actually happen is that 95L recurves north of the Caribbean islands and lets something else come up behind it, but we will have to see. It's still too early to take a full swipe at where 95L will go. We need it to develop first so we can work out its short-term track.
And as just mentioned, I still feel that we will have a storm somewhere in the NW Caribbean, southern Gulf of Mexico, or the Bahamas area during the 3rd week of September, near or after the 15th. This could be 95L, but I have a feeling it may be something else after it.
We shall see what happens!
Next we're going to have to solve a problem like Maria. It's either going to be in the Gulf of Mexico or from invest 95L in the central Atlantic. We will talk about the gulf first because it is the most immediate threat. In short, Lee had a tail, and that tail is sticking down towards the Yucatan. At the tail of this tail is a small area of low pressure that the models develop in a few days. This system is most likely to come northward into the weakness left by Lee and affect the north gulf coast. Some models try to take it westward into Mexico, and this is still a possibility, but I believe it is not as likely. There may be some wind shear over the gulf during this time that could limit the system's intensity, and overall the models aren't too excited about strengthening it rapidly. We will have to watch it closely as it will be a threat.
Out in the central Atlantic we have Invest 95L, which looks rather nice today with a nearly closed surface circulation, and it may become a tropical depression today or tomorrow. This will be Maria if it beats our gulf system. True to its name, it will be a problem, as it will be heading WNW towards the lesser Antilles islands. The good news is that the models don't want to strengthen 95L much before reaching the islands, but given how nice it looks now, I wouldn't bank on that idea just yet. Folks in the islands should closely monitor this system. Obviously if 95L affects the islands, then areas farther west like the United States may have to deal with it too. The good news is that because of Lee's cut-off upper low still stuck over the center of the country, a big longwave trough is going to have to dive in over the eastern U.S. to rescue the cut-off low. Thus, we may have a big trough over the eastern seaboard next week that could recurve 95L out to sea, but that is far from guaranteed, and much depends on 95L's short-term track. The ECMWF actually brings it into the Caribbean and develops it in the NW Caribbean in 10 days. Interestingly enough, this would satisfy my requirement for a storm in that area after September 15th. However, the Euro may be confusing 95L with another low that comes up and fills that role. What may actually happen is that 95L recurves north of the Caribbean islands and lets something else come up behind it, but we will have to see. It's still too early to take a full swipe at where 95L will go. We need it to develop first so we can work out its short-term track.
And as just mentioned, I still feel that we will have a storm somewhere in the NW Caribbean, southern Gulf of Mexico, or the Bahamas area during the 3rd week of September, near or after the 15th. This could be 95L, but I have a feeling it may be something else after it.
We shall see what happens!
From Levy32
http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/Levi3...ml?entrynum=494
Katia certainly is proof that the models do not yet have a good handle on intensity. A 120-135 mph storm was expected to maintain, and we now are back to a C1. Which is good news if the track forecast fails. The coast simply cannot handle another event after Lee's rains. The models all agree on track. Now we wait to see if the NW curve that is predicted within a day occurs. If it does, the models win.
Maria is the subject of some discussion. Despite generally favorable conditions, models do not develop this storm, anticipating a big effect from fairly weak shear. Dr. Masters is curious about this, and so we should be also, since a weaker storm would not curve as hard to the North. Some models turn this hard, even tho it's far South, and bring it to Bermuda. We will have to see if the trough that does this still exists then.
But the greatest concern is the weakest system, the one in the Gulf, because it has nowhere to go but land. The models that handled Lee well have forecast a growing storm, but most have it languishing in the Gulf for days, like Lee. They also favor a Mexico landfall. However, our most accurate model, the Euro, puts it on the Panhandle of Florida. Sadly, all models deduce that the incredible heat dome surrounding desperate Texas can reject any and all storms trying to head that way. So far there is no chance for any rains to reach Texas. We can hope they are wrong. It seems that the only hope for Texas is a shift in the Jet Stream. And the position of the Jet Stream extended the 1930's Dust Bowl. It stayed south of Texas for years.
NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded a study to determine the cause of the Dust Bowl, and concluded that it was caused by a very strong La Nina condition in the Pacific, coupled with a consistently warmer than average Atlantic. This caused an unbalance that drove the Jet south, and thus the Jet could not bring Gulf moisture into the Plains. The study prognosis for the present does not anticipate Dust Bowl conditions in our future, but evidence for a La Nina event this winter does not hold promise for winter rains to help the drought areas. In fact, forecasts imply the drought maintaining and extending in size eastwards, tho not necessarily northwards. Oklahoma may get close to normal winter precip. But Texas, especially the southern half, is not expected to get relief.
Maria is the subject of some discussion. Despite generally favorable conditions, models do not develop this storm, anticipating a big effect from fairly weak shear. Dr. Masters is curious about this, and so we should be also, since a weaker storm would not curve as hard to the North. Some models turn this hard, even tho it's far South, and bring it to Bermuda. We will have to see if the trough that does this still exists then.
But the greatest concern is the weakest system, the one in the Gulf, because it has nowhere to go but land. The models that handled Lee well have forecast a growing storm, but most have it languishing in the Gulf for days, like Lee. They also favor a Mexico landfall. However, our most accurate model, the Euro, puts it on the Panhandle of Florida. Sadly, all models deduce that the incredible heat dome surrounding desperate Texas can reject any and all storms trying to head that way. So far there is no chance for any rains to reach Texas. We can hope they are wrong. It seems that the only hope for Texas is a shift in the Jet Stream. And the position of the Jet Stream extended the 1930's Dust Bowl. It stayed south of Texas for years.
NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded a study to determine the cause of the Dust Bowl, and concluded that it was caused by a very strong La Nina condition in the Pacific, coupled with a consistently warmer than average Atlantic. This caused an unbalance that drove the Jet south, and thus the Jet could not bring Gulf moisture into the Plains. The study prognosis for the present does not anticipate Dust Bowl conditions in our future, but evidence for a La Nina event this winter does not hold promise for winter rains to help the drought areas. In fact, forecasts imply the drought maintaining and extending in size eastwards, tho not necessarily northwards. Oklahoma may get close to normal winter precip. But Texas, especially the southern half, is not expected to get relief.
QUOTE
The three systems ARE going to interact after all. We still don't know, and most unfortunately, we may not know until 'nowcasting' occurs.
We are seeing the result. A tropical stream from Katia -basically her entire SW arc- is feeding into the trough that has combined with Lee's remnants to produce a rare event in the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. Lee goes nowhere, spinning over Ohio for the third day, and there is seemingly no end to the moisture. The training of thunderstorms in the consistently 40dbz soundings and up, through central Va/Md/De/Central-East Pa/Central NY, is the longest duration I've ever seen. At this point I'm wondering how fresh the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays are getting.That the Susquehanna is expected to crest with a volume output per second twice the output of the Mississippi is a testament to the amount of water deluging the area. Are there any out there living in this area? I am flooded where I am too, but it's nothing like central Pa.
Katia has indeed done the models' bidding, to our great safety. She is moving 360degrees North, and the steering is firmly in place (at the moment...)
Maria has positive and negative influences in her forecast, but the models distill a general slow increase in strength. As always, if she stays weak, she can't be as easily pulled away. It's actually to our advantage, statistically, to have a stronger storm at this point; it could then miss the islands and veer NW. But Maria looks Puerto Rico bound at this juncture.
Nate...
Nothing is cast in stone with weak steering and stationary systems. Each day, all bets can be off. That is the case today. Models have no clue whatever what Nate will do. They do agree on slow general strengthening, like Maria, but we know nothing at all even 3 days out. The only perceivable player atm is a gradually westward-expanding ridge of high pressure over the central Gulf; that would push Nate into Mexico. But Nate seems to be nudging northward now and then, and if that maintains, he could mis that push. Models are sure about the ridge, but not about where Nate may float.
Maria is maintaining, and there is no major change to the intensity or track forecast yet. The same basic situation continues to exist regarding the steering. Maria is forecast to mimic the tracks of Irene and Katia, tho we don't know how close it gets to the coast Some models put it in between the former 2 tracks. It's too far away for any accuracy yet.
Nate is showing some determination with a consistent 3mph NW track. This keeps Nate below the expanding ridge, and Nate is running out of time to move North above it. This favors a Mexico landfall, since even a NW movement cannot bring Nate into the rejecting heat dome over Texas. Once again, heavy rains keep just out of Texas' reach. But don't bank on anything. NHC isn't alluding to it, but things could be completely different tomorrow. The slower a system moves, the greater chance any variable has in it's influence. Remember, yesterday NHC was predicting a possible week-long meandering in the Gulf. Now, we are back to the Mexico landfall. We need more consistency before anyone has a clue.
Nate is showing some determination with a consistent 3mph NW track. This keeps Nate below the expanding ridge, and Nate is running out of time to move North above it. This favors a Mexico landfall, since even a NW movement cannot bring Nate into the rejecting heat dome over Texas. Once again, heavy rains keep just out of Texas' reach. But don't bank on anything. NHC isn't alluding to it, but things could be completely different tomorrow. The slower a system moves, the greater chance any variable has in it's influence. Remember, yesterday NHC was predicting a possible week-long meandering in the Gulf. Now, we are back to the Mexico landfall. We need more consistency before anyone has a clue.
Here we are on the statistical peak of hurricane season, with three systems active. It is nice to see that none of these are monsters with major threats, as we already are dealing with the worst Northeast flooding situation since 1972. We've had an unusual set of atmospheric conditions, resulting in some slightly unusual storms so far.
Katia - all hail the models' perfect handling of this storm. A full scale evacuation is very expensive; and we avoided that expense courtesy of our models. But these same models are forecasting some problems for the British Isles, because Katia is embedded in an area with vast temperature differences as well as significant energy availability. This will result in Katia becoming a very strong non-tropical system with winds nearing hurricane force - meaning winds far from the center. We may be reading about destruction across the pond in a couple of days.
Maria - satellite imagery suggests that she is splitting in two. Appearances can be very misleading so this is a wait and see. The future concern is that if the split is genuine, it's the Southern half that is stronger, and this half looks to be below the recurving influence. There are no troublesome forecasts with this lower half, but because it is new, models may not have gauged it correctly. We'll wait to see how this blob looks in 12 hours. Meanwhile the upper portion of the storm, larger and appearing very disorganized, does have a potential for some strengthening as it moves over warmer waters with a little less shear, but the pathway to the North Atlantic is pretty firmly established with the dome out in the middle and a continuing series of troughs working eastward off the coast.
Nate remains cozily entrenched in it's cubbyhole, not appearing to be North bound as the high has indeed stretched West in a blocking pattern. The expectation is that he will eventually head West into Mexico, with a possibility of some rains in Southeast Texas right at the coast, not near enough to the fires to help.
The MJO has gone from Phase 2 to Phase 3 in the last week, and is very weak. With weak vertical advection, storms remain weaker and rather disorganized. It's uncommon to have 14 named storms at this point with only 2 becoming hurricanes. Since the MJO is basically languishing about, we should have a relatively peaceful stretch; it does not appear to be circumnavigating with much velocity. Not that storms can't form - they certainly can and will, but their strength will be mitigated, for the time being.
Katia - all hail the models' perfect handling of this storm. A full scale evacuation is very expensive; and we avoided that expense courtesy of our models. But these same models are forecasting some problems for the British Isles, because Katia is embedded in an area with vast temperature differences as well as significant energy availability. This will result in Katia becoming a very strong non-tropical system with winds nearing hurricane force - meaning winds far from the center. We may be reading about destruction across the pond in a couple of days.
Maria - satellite imagery suggests that she is splitting in two. Appearances can be very misleading so this is a wait and see. The future concern is that if the split is genuine, it's the Southern half that is stronger, and this half looks to be below the recurving influence. There are no troublesome forecasts with this lower half, but because it is new, models may not have gauged it correctly. We'll wait to see how this blob looks in 12 hours. Meanwhile the upper portion of the storm, larger and appearing very disorganized, does have a potential for some strengthening as it moves over warmer waters with a little less shear, but the pathway to the North Atlantic is pretty firmly established with the dome out in the middle and a continuing series of troughs working eastward off the coast.
Nate remains cozily entrenched in it's cubbyhole, not appearing to be North bound as the high has indeed stretched West in a blocking pattern. The expectation is that he will eventually head West into Mexico, with a possibility of some rains in Southeast Texas right at the coast, not near enough to the fires to help.
The MJO has gone from Phase 2 to Phase 3 in the last week, and is very weak. With weak vertical advection, storms remain weaker and rather disorganized. It's uncommon to have 14 named storms at this point with only 2 becoming hurricanes. Since the MJO is basically languishing about, we should have a relatively peaceful stretch; it does not appear to be circumnavigating with much velocity. Not that storms can't form - they certainly can and will, but their strength will be mitigated, for the time being.
Nate has moved into Mexico and is evaporating, with some 25mph winds and sporadic heavy but not threatening rainfall.
Maria is -so far - following track guidance. There is no forecast for coastal problems apart from some possible coast-scraping rains, and no real issues for Bermuda. But since the storm - as disorganized as it looks - still has some potential for strengthening as shear temporarily abates, all eyes remain on her, especially since she is the only game in town atm.
With a slowly moving MJO, there is little impetus ( I didn't say none) for a Cape Verde system to ramp itself up. The MJO was an energetic force 3 weeks ago; it has since dramatically weakened, and currently is retrograde. While it is only a matter of time before it gets here, this, the week of greatest statistical activity, provides little excitement. That's a good thing. Models are forecasting 'something big' down the road, but it's down the road...we'll wait a bit since it doesn't even exist yet. It is not the blob that just exited Africa, which the models are currently ho-hum about.
Maria is -so far - following track guidance. There is no forecast for coastal problems apart from some possible coast-scraping rains, and no real issues for Bermuda. But since the storm - as disorganized as it looks - still has some potential for strengthening as shear temporarily abates, all eyes remain on her, especially since she is the only game in town atm.
With a slowly moving MJO, there is little impetus ( I didn't say none) for a Cape Verde system to ramp itself up. The MJO was an energetic force 3 weeks ago; it has since dramatically weakened, and currently is retrograde. While it is only a matter of time before it gets here, this, the week of greatest statistical activity, provides little excitement. That's a good thing. Models are forecasting 'something big' down the road, but it's down the road...we'll wait a bit since it doesn't even exist yet. It is not the blob that just exited Africa, which the models are currently ho-hum about.
From NHC today:
Katia is beginning to lash the British Isles. Forecasters have predicted winds of nearly 80 mph are possible. No extratropical storm in the last 20 years has been that strong, though several have come close.
Link to Irish Met service:
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp
QUOTE
It should be noted that this forecast
assumes Maria will remain a deep cyclone and feel the influence of
the deep-layer trough moving off the East Coast of North America.
If Maria becomes a shallow system completely devoid of deep
convection...it could move more westward than indicated here and
weaken or perhaps even dissipate as a tropical cyclone within the
next day or two.
The forecast maintains the NW>N>NE curvature, but very slightly to the West of previous track. It should be noted that if Maria does weaken so that she cannot be grabbed by the trough, there could be precipitation falling on saturated areas, as she is big. If she does become quite shallow, she could be absorbed rather than grabbed. Although she is moving very slowly, the movement is due West. Maria must be heading North by tomorrow for the track forecast to hold. She is forecast to get as close to the mainland as 69.9 W. The Outer Banks are ~76 West and ~36N. At this latitude the miles between each degree longitude is ~53 miles. We wait to see what Maria does in the next 24 hours.assumes Maria will remain a deep cyclone and feel the influence of
the deep-layer trough moving off the East Coast of North America.
If Maria becomes a shallow system completely devoid of deep
convection...it could move more westward than indicated here and
weaken or perhaps even dissipate as a tropical cyclone within the
next day or two.
Katia is beginning to lash the British Isles. Forecasters have predicted winds of nearly 80 mph are possible. No extratropical storm in the last 20 years has been that strong, though several have come close.
Link to Irish Met service:
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp
Parts of Katia are moving through the British Isles. Winds in excess of 80mph have been recorded. Not quite the worst event in the last 20y, but the last 15.
Dramatic pic:
http://www.thejournal.ie/the-daily-fix-mon...224489-Sep2011/
Dramatic pic:
http://www.thejournal.ie/the-daily-fix-mon...224489-Sep2011/
QUOTE
The Met Office said the strongest reported gust so far was 82 mph (128 kph) at a mountain station in North Wales. Gusts in the Northern Ireland border town of Castlederg reached 74 mph (118 kph).
http://news.in.msn.com/international/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5431203
Parts of Katia are moving through the British Isles. Winds in excess of 80mph have been recorded. Not quite the worst event in the last 20y, but the last 15.
Dramatic pic:
http://www.thejournal.ie/the-daily-fix-mon...224489-Sep2011/
Dramatic pic:
http://www.thejournal.ie/the-daily-fix-mon...224489-Sep2011/
QUOTE
The Met Office said the strongest reported gust so far was 82 mph (128 kph) at a mountain station in North Wales. Gusts in the Northern Ireland border town of Castlederg reached 74 mph (118 kph).
http://news.in.msn.com/international/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5431203
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
This shows Maria moving NW rather than North, but also shows evidence of the trough pushing it's way eventually offshore of the US coast. Maria also looks a little better which is not news that Bermuda needs. The island will receive at least a good scrape. Virtually everything remains unchanged with Maria: 45-50mph, moving NW@8mph. The models have Maria continuing to strengthen even as she goes extratropical after interacting with the trough. That could be a problem for Newfoundland.
This shows Maria moving NW rather than North, but also shows evidence of the trough pushing it's way eventually offshore of the US coast. Maria also looks a little better which is not news that Bermuda needs. The island will receive at least a good scrape. Virtually everything remains unchanged with Maria: 45-50mph, moving NW@8mph. The models have Maria continuing to strengthen even as she goes extratropical after interacting with the trough. That could be a problem for Newfoundland.
Maria on track. Bermuda is getting scraped, but well within normal handle-ability. . As Maria looks to become a C!, Newfoundland can get some of her too, but this is not a desperate situation either. We are entering a relatively quiet period despite it being mid-September. I doubt the season is done, but at least for a while the US/Caribbean can rest easy.
We have a fairly calm Western Atlantic and Caribbean currently. There are two struggling systems, only one of them expecting to develop. 98L is slowly getting itself together, although it is not in a perfect environment. That being said, there are still more positive than negative influences affecting it. Of greatest interest is that 98L is quite South, and likely will not recurve, as is the norm of the prevailing conditions. But the future doesn't hold promise for 98L, as shear in 98L's track is expected to greatly intensify in a few days.
There are no dramatic changes in our pattern for the near future. The parade of troughs that have cascaded off the Eastern Seaboard show no signs of abating, the MJO stays weak for the near future, the shear remains in place, the extremely stable air over the Atlantic is as locked in as can be, the dry air to the North of the CV Islands does not dissipate. These unchanging conditions have resulted in a hurricane season like we have never seen. Never has there been only 3 hurricanes developing from 14 chances.
It goes to show that the single most influential contributor to tropical system formation - extremely hot SST - sea surface temperature - is not enough to overcome the mitigating influences. That doesn't mean that weak ill-defined systems can't be destructive, as we have seen. But this season could have been devastating beyond belief if the mitigating factors weren't there. So be thankful; we have had truly anomalous conditions protecting us from what would have been a situation America could not have afforded at all.
What does the rest of the season hold? These are the considerations:
SSTs remain very high, so storms are expected to develop.
The Eastern trough maker remains potent, so any storm will want to recurve North, even if it is in the Gulf - this means Northern or Eastern Gulf coast, not Western Gulf coast, unfortunately for Texas.
The MJO will eventually arrive, and it will arrive during the development season, so it's intensity will have a major influence.
The Cape Verde season is currently still active, but will die out soon, and the Caribbean influence will come to the fore. We may have more conducive conditions for the Caribbean season, but that is nowhere a guarantee. However, it takes a while for water to cool, and the temps are high, and there have been few systems to create any turmoil or upwelling of cool water, so if shear drops and the upper air allows for ventilation by way of a dome, it is possible that the worst storms of the season have yet to be, especially if the eventually arriving MJO is strong. This is NOT official NHC statement, it is mine, and I'm not wishcasting as I have family in the Caribbean and Gulf Coast, but the future situation does not look worse than what we have already had, and we have had 14 systems develop...so 98L may be a sort of bellwether for the near future. It is far enough South that it may be considered, if it holds into the Caribbean, as a somewhat Caribbean system, even tho it is Cape Verde - born.
There are no dramatic changes in our pattern for the near future. The parade of troughs that have cascaded off the Eastern Seaboard show no signs of abating, the MJO stays weak for the near future, the shear remains in place, the extremely stable air over the Atlantic is as locked in as can be, the dry air to the North of the CV Islands does not dissipate. These unchanging conditions have resulted in a hurricane season like we have never seen. Never has there been only 3 hurricanes developing from 14 chances.
It goes to show that the single most influential contributor to tropical system formation - extremely hot SST - sea surface temperature - is not enough to overcome the mitigating influences. That doesn't mean that weak ill-defined systems can't be destructive, as we have seen. But this season could have been devastating beyond belief if the mitigating factors weren't there. So be thankful; we have had truly anomalous conditions protecting us from what would have been a situation America could not have afforded at all.
What does the rest of the season hold? These are the considerations:
SSTs remain very high, so storms are expected to develop.
The Eastern trough maker remains potent, so any storm will want to recurve North, even if it is in the Gulf - this means Northern or Eastern Gulf coast, not Western Gulf coast, unfortunately for Texas.
The MJO will eventually arrive, and it will arrive during the development season, so it's intensity will have a major influence.
The Cape Verde season is currently still active, but will die out soon, and the Caribbean influence will come to the fore. We may have more conducive conditions for the Caribbean season, but that is nowhere a guarantee. However, it takes a while for water to cool, and the temps are high, and there have been few systems to create any turmoil or upwelling of cool water, so if shear drops and the upper air allows for ventilation by way of a dome, it is possible that the worst storms of the season have yet to be, especially if the eventually arriving MJO is strong. This is NOT official NHC statement, it is mine, and I'm not wishcasting as I have family in the Caribbean and Gulf Coast, but the future situation does not look worse than what we have already had, and we have had 14 systems develop...so 98L may be a sort of bellwether for the near future. It is far enough South that it may be considered, if it holds into the Caribbean, as a somewhat Caribbean system, even tho it is Cape Verde - born.
98L has just become Tropical Storm Ophelia.
There is some moderate shear, and some dry air, and warm waters throughout. Ophelia should strengthen over these waters despite the hindrances, but in this anomalous season that is not a given. The models, most of them, bring Ophelia Northwestward, with the reliable GFDL keeping it due West only 12 degrees above the equator. The ECMWF only lightly develops it at all.
As has been the case, a strong trough is expected off the coast which will do what has been done so far this season: bring the storm, even a far south one as this, up into the Western Atlantic, with the longitude unknown at this point as we see how Ophelia strengthens and shapes up.
The following link shows how the MJO has been languishing in Phase 3 for a long while, and how it is suddenly gathering quick momentum and racing to Phase 4. Many eyes will be on this development, especially in the western Pacific, where Typhoons are being born regularly. Roke, a big C3, is hitting Japan squarely in the jaw. Just the slightest eastward jog brings Roke to the crippled nuclear plants. Up to 20 inch rains and C2 conditions are expected in the populous areas of Japan.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
There is some moderate shear, and some dry air, and warm waters throughout. Ophelia should strengthen over these waters despite the hindrances, but in this anomalous season that is not a given. The models, most of them, bring Ophelia Northwestward, with the reliable GFDL keeping it due West only 12 degrees above the equator. The ECMWF only lightly develops it at all.
As has been the case, a strong trough is expected off the coast which will do what has been done so far this season: bring the storm, even a far south one as this, up into the Western Atlantic, with the longitude unknown at this point as we see how Ophelia strengthens and shapes up.
The following link shows how the MJO has been languishing in Phase 3 for a long while, and how it is suddenly gathering quick momentum and racing to Phase 4. Many eyes will be on this development, especially in the western Pacific, where Typhoons are being born regularly. Roke, a big C3, is hitting Japan squarely in the jaw. Just the slightest eastward jog brings Roke to the crippled nuclear plants. Up to 20 inch rains and C2 conditions are expected in the populous areas of Japan.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Ophelia will be sharing a large piece of real estate with a vigorous upper level low. It is safe to say that this is hardly conducive for development, and with Ophelia already moving more and more NW, the East Coast should have little concern save for the usual wave/tidal effects. But in this anomalous season, why shouldn't Ophelia find a way to maintain against statistical odds? Models are predicting this, as if they have caught on... . She's already maintaining despite constant shear. It is reasonable to think she will dissipate, but that does not seem to be model consensus. We shall see.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
The Madden/Julian Oscillation has really put on some speed. It is not in a strongly affecting state however; the farther away from the center circle the trace is, the stronger the influence. Still, the thrust is making up for lost time. It has swept through 2/3 of Phase 4 in 2 days, after languishing in Phase 3 for 23 days. Phase 8 is the West Atlantic/Caribbean-GOM basin.
. She's already maintaining despite constant shear. It is reasonable to think she will dissipate, but that does not seem to be model consensus. We shall see.http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
The Madden/Julian Oscillation has really put on some speed. It is not in a strongly affecting state however; the farther away from the center circle the trace is, the stronger the influence. Still, the thrust is making up for lost time. It has swept through 2/3 of Phase 4 in 2 days, after languishing in Phase 3 for 23 days. Phase 8 is the West Atlantic/Caribbean-GOM basin.
The models are correct with Ophelia. She is maintaining despite consistent strong shear. One concern is Ophelia sticking around long enough to start feeling a steering effect not in our favor. So far, only the GFS is forecasting this, but the GFS is our 2nd most accurate model. It's also the first to recurve storms, so this is peculiar. While the NHC is disregarding this model in their plotting, they're keeping a wary eye to the structure of the trough that the GFS says will weaken substantially, thus providing the direct Westward movement. It is a wait and see. Either way, Ophelia would enter less shear in a couple of days. Storms that successfully fight off shear can strengthen rapidly if the shear mitigates, so this storm may even get an eye in a couple of days, despite how forlorn it looks now.
There are three other systems that have now organized - thankfully the MJO is distant. Although one is now TS Phillipe, the one we need to watch is the system developing off the Carolina coast. There is not enough yet to really know anything; half the models have it somewhat affecting the Seaboard, half don't. It's small and not strong at this point.
The MJO has entered Phase 5 after a 3 day sweep of Phase 4. However it is currently of little effect atmospherically. What the MJO does is destabilize the atmosphere. The reason for our lopsided ratio of TS/Hurricane this season is because of uncommonly stable Atlantic air. The reason for this is not known yet. but the arrival of the MJO can and will change that unless it remains so weak it has no effect, which is the case right now. However, the MJO travels around the planet and thus is constantly being affected anew. This allows for dynamic variability, and in short order. I do wonder what will happen when the MJO moves across the SW and Texas, then hits the Caribbean and West Atlantic.
There are three other systems that have now organized - thankfully the MJO is distant. Although one is now TS Phillipe, the one we need to watch is the system developing off the Carolina coast. There is not enough yet to really know anything; half the models have it somewhat affecting the Seaboard, half don't. It's small and not strong at this point.
The MJO has entered Phase 5 after a 3 day sweep of Phase 4. However it is currently of little effect atmospherically. What the MJO does is destabilize the atmosphere. The reason for our lopsided ratio of TS/Hurricane this season is because of uncommonly stable Atlantic air. The reason for this is not known yet. but the arrival of the MJO can and will change that unless it remains so weak it has no effect, which is the case right now. However, the MJO travels around the planet and thus is constantly being affected anew. This allows for dynamic variability, and in short order. I do wonder what will happen when the MJO moves across the SW and Texas, then hits the Caribbean and West Atlantic.
Ophelia has finally shown signs of weakening under the consistent shear. The COC-center of circulation- has disengaged from the convection. While reformation is not out of the question, ststistically storms in this situation with harsh conditions do not reform, and Ophelia is not moving quickly at 10mph. So she remains in shear and should begin to dissipate. Interestingly though, Ophelia is now following the GFS outlier model that I mentioned earlier, taking it due West. So we need Ophelia to dissipate. Elsewhere the tropical concerns are not too concerning atm. The MJO has come to a crashing halt, and is showing some strengthening.
We finally have relatively quiet tropics. Ophelia has at last been done in by the shear, though there is a slight chance of reorganizing to her east, which would not affect us.
TS Philippe is already turning Northward and won't affect the U.S.
Hurricane Hilary still needs to be monitored, but she is moving due North, not towards the Baja, and is moving into shear and cold waters.
The MJO is basically floundering at the same longitude, and may even be slightly retrograding, and is showing some small sign of slight intensification. But if this keeps up, we could actually be out of hurricane season by the time it gets here, as it has already taken 3 months to go through three phases. We are very lucky. if the MJO was on our side instead of the opposite side for this duration, it would have had 16 storms to play with. And the result would not have been the record low 3 hurricanes out of the 16 systems. This has been a very fortunate situation for us so far, even with Irene/Lee. Let's keep our fingers crossed!
This, with some luck, may be the last post here for a bit. For those interested, it can be a good time to read up on the MJO, ENSO, and NAO: the big players behind the scenes of our general weather, not merely the tropics. These fellows dictate to the Jet Stream, which in turn conducts the weather systems into the symphony that we either enjoy or endure
TS Philippe is already turning Northward and won't affect the U.S.
Hurricane Hilary still needs to be monitored, but she is moving due North, not towards the Baja, and is moving into shear and cold waters.
The MJO is basically floundering at the same longitude, and may even be slightly retrograding, and is showing some small sign of slight intensification. But if this keeps up, we could actually be out of hurricane season by the time it gets here, as it has already taken 3 months to go through three phases. We are very lucky. if the MJO was on our side instead of the opposite side for this duration, it would have had 16 storms to play with. And the result would not have been the record low 3 hurricanes out of the 16 systems. This has been a very fortunate situation for us so far, even with Irene/Lee. Let's keep our fingers crossed!
This, with some luck, may be the last post here for a bit. For those interested, it can be a good time to read up on the MJO, ENSO, and NAO: the big players behind the scenes of our general weather, not merely the tropics. These fellows dictate to the Jet Stream, which in turn conducts the weather systems into the symphony that we either enjoy or endure
Ophelia has reorganized with the Center of Circulation SE of where she originally fell apart. The name is retained because there was enough left of her to warrant it. Of note, the shear has decreased more than forecast, and eager Ophelia may actually be a TS tho atm she is not classified as such. Of further note is that she is moving W to WNW, and we have a mix of troughs and ridges right now, not the steady stream of troughs we've had. The Lesser Antilles and company need to watch very closely. Not in the forecast yet, as NHC insists on NW > N track, but from what I can see, the ridge above her will have to weaken/move E.
This shows the dying and regeneration of Ophelia. TS Philippe is way off to her E.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
This shows the dying and regeneration of Ophelia. TS Philippe is way off to her E.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
While Ophelia decides what exactly she is going to do, I'd like to show first what the MJO is doing:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics....Last40days.gif
It is moving along again, and slowly intensifying. Right now it is not quite yet in the Pacific, it is in the far E Indian Ocean to Indonesia and the Philippines; all points within.
Now look at the CIMSS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../wpac/main.html
The movement of the pulse is, as far as I know, not well predicted. Basically we observe it. We did not know it would remain in one phase for nearly a month, the next in less than a week. This is a powerful representation of a rather chaotically random force. We will have to watch the Western Pacific as the effects of the strengthening MJO are already stirring the pot up over there as we can see. Before it makes it's presence known in the Caribbean and Atlantic, the SW US will feel it. Perhaps there will be enough moisture and differing air masses for it to to mix and energize and bring some rain. Then, at some point after, it resides fully in the Gulf, Caribbean, and W Atlantic.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics....Last40days.gif
It is moving along again, and slowly intensifying. Right now it is not quite yet in the Pacific, it is in the far E Indian Ocean to Indonesia and the Philippines; all points within.
Now look at the CIMSS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../wpac/main.html
The movement of the pulse is, as far as I know, not well predicted. Basically we observe it. We did not know it would remain in one phase for nearly a month, the next in less than a week. This is a powerful representation of a rather chaotically random force. We will have to watch the Western Pacific as the effects of the strengthening MJO are already stirring the pot up over there as we can see. Before it makes it's presence known in the Caribbean and Atlantic, the SW US will feel it. Perhaps there will be enough moisture and differing air masses for it to to mix and energize and bring some rain. Then, at some point after, it resides fully in the Gulf, Caribbean, and W Atlantic.
Ophelia is now a TS again. However, models agree on what appears to be a straightforward uncomplicated scenario, as the trough has asserted itself and NHC expects Ophelia to head N, E of Bermuda, with Newfoundland in the line of fire yet again.
But the real focus of attention that is developing are the new model tracks for TS Philippe. No longer a Northern to NE course, all models agree on a due West track, as an expected strong ridge develops in the West/Central Atlantic. Have a look (scroll down half way):
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...1117_model.html
Here is the global Total Precipitable Water view.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi...lobal/main.html
You can see TS Philippe traveling more W, a tad over 270 D, just nearing 40W Lon, and noticeably gaining some speed, as the ridge builds in, moving E and expanding S in the Atlantic. The good news here is that while it now looks that Philippe will not recurve, the shear is so strong and widespread that the storm will remain embedded in it as far as models forecast. The real question down the road (that no one is speaking of yet) is whether Philippe, like several of the storms this season, manages to hold together long enough to still exist as better conditions replace the present non-conducive conditions.
If Philippe does manage this, we could have a Caribbean problem down the road. I'm saying this primarily because of the trend for weak languishing systems in harsh conditions refusing to die and then regenerating. Philippe is expected to dissipate within 5 days. However, Ophelia began to dissipate, even to the point of 'glazed eye', and now hurricane status is forecast in 72 hours.
You can also see, by the activity, where the MJO is residing: basically between 110 - 125 E Lon, or the Maritime Continental pie slices before the Western Pacific.
It's an interesting season that we have: the majority of the storms have not wanted to be hurricanes, and also have not wanted to die out. I don't know whether this is a tinderbox waiting to be ignited by the MJO or just an ongoing wet windy mess with little dynamics.
But the real focus of attention that is developing are the new model tracks for TS Philippe. No longer a Northern to NE course, all models agree on a due West track, as an expected strong ridge develops in the West/Central Atlantic. Have a look (scroll down half way):
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...1117_model.html
Here is the global Total Precipitable Water view.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi...lobal/main.html
You can see TS Philippe traveling more W, a tad over 270 D, just nearing 40W Lon, and noticeably gaining some speed, as the ridge builds in, moving E and expanding S in the Atlantic. The good news here is that while it now looks that Philippe will not recurve, the shear is so strong and widespread that the storm will remain embedded in it as far as models forecast. The real question down the road (that no one is speaking of yet) is whether Philippe, like several of the storms this season, manages to hold together long enough to still exist as better conditions replace the present non-conducive conditions.
If Philippe does manage this, we could have a Caribbean problem down the road. I'm saying this primarily because of the trend for weak languishing systems in harsh conditions refusing to die and then regenerating. Philippe is expected to dissipate within 5 days. However, Ophelia began to dissipate, even to the point of 'glazed eye', and now hurricane status is forecast in 72 hours.
You can also see, by the activity, where the MJO is residing: basically between 110 - 125 E Lon, or the Maritime Continental pie slices before the Western Pacific.
It's an interesting season that we have: the majority of the storms have not wanted to be hurricanes, and also have not wanted to die out. I don't know whether this is a tinderbox waiting to be ignited by the MJO or just an ongoing wet windy mess with little dynamics.
NHC has been giving reports on Ophelia since Sept 20, and she is now a hurricane. She was down to 979 mb at 11PM EDT last night, and by the time most read this, she could well be a C2, and with warmer water ahead of her and a curious forecast of strong shear steering clear of her, C3 is a distinct possibility - all from a system we thought was a blink shy of death. And basically, she was. Look at this storm that was without convection over her barely spinning 1008 mb center of circulation on Sept. 27:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Weather is very interesting.
Models keep to their N > NE track, tho Newfoundland is not out of the cone. But I learned a long time ago that a storm that continually marches to a different beat than forecast should never be written off in any guise. Ophelia has proven to be a rather jazzy storm, and another unexpected surprise is not out of the question imo.
Philippe is weak and scattered, and moving mostly West. There are better conditions ahead of him and worsening conditions beyond that in the current view. But we will be following closely nevertheless.
Have a look at the MJO.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics....Last40days.gif
The center circle denotes it's weakest point, further down the pie slice denotes increasing intensity. This is a worsening scenario for the W Pacific. Anything forming in the coming period will be feeling more unstable air, which is a dynamic source these giant engines grow strong with.
Then, keep in mind that the MJO flows over the cooler mid to East Pacific in a La Nina ENSO. It will be interesting to see how it reacts with that as it approaches the Caribbean and Gulf.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Weather is very interesting.
Models keep to their N > NE track, tho Newfoundland is not out of the cone. But I learned a long time ago that a storm that continually marches to a different beat than forecast should never be written off in any guise. Ophelia has proven to be a rather jazzy storm, and another unexpected surprise is not out of the question imo.
Philippe is weak and scattered, and moving mostly West. There are better conditions ahead of him and worsening conditions beyond that in the current view. But we will be following closely nevertheless.
Have a look at the MJO.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics....Last40days.gif
The center circle denotes it's weakest point, further down the pie slice denotes increasing intensity. This is a worsening scenario for the W Pacific. Anything forming in the coming period will be feeling more unstable air, which is a dynamic source these giant engines grow strong with.
Then, keep in mind that the MJO flows over the cooler mid to East Pacific in a La Nina ENSO. It will be interesting to see how it reacts with that as it approaches the Caribbean and Gulf.
Ophelia has been maintaining C3 status, and she is certainly a nice looking hurricane. The models have shifted West - so Newfoundland seems destined for something.
Philippe is still up in the air, as models disagree, with the GFS at one point taking him as a C2 into Maine (tho not the 12:00 AM product). Philippe is starting to move more northerly, and the ECMWF dissipates him fairly quickly.
The MJO is moving steadily, and is nearly in Phase 6, maintaining intensity, and is certainly roiling things up in general for the unfortunate folks in these areas. There's no telling what the pulse may do, but if it were to keep at it's current pace (speed, not intensity) it would be entering the middle of Phase 7 in 10-12 days. The models don't see anything for at least the next week. But the fall patterns are beginning to assert themselves. We could be seeing an end to the constant troughs tumbling off the East Coast, replaced by a more general high pressure pattern. Highs rotate clockwise, so any storm in the West Atlantic would not be guaranteed to be swept North as it has been this season. We can keep our fingers crossed that the MJO will be moving through the Caribbean quickly with no storm to feed; this is entirely possible. We'll know soon enough.
Philippe is still up in the air, as models disagree, with the GFS at one point taking him as a C2 into Maine (tho not the 12:00 AM product). Philippe is starting to move more northerly, and the ECMWF dissipates him fairly quickly.
The MJO is moving steadily, and is nearly in Phase 6, maintaining intensity, and is certainly roiling things up in general for the unfortunate folks in these areas. There's no telling what the pulse may do, but if it were to keep at it's current pace (speed, not intensity) it would be entering the middle of Phase 7 in 10-12 days. The models don't see anything for at least the next week. But the fall patterns are beginning to assert themselves. We could be seeing an end to the constant troughs tumbling off the East Coast, replaced by a more general high pressure pattern. Highs rotate clockwise, so any storm in the West Atlantic would not be guaranteed to be swept North as it has been this season. We can keep our fingers crossed that the MJO will be moving through the Caribbean quickly with no storm to feed; this is entirely possible. We'll know soon enough.
As Ophelia maintains adherence to the track forecast - and Newfoundland coast prepares for a heck of a Nor'easter, a quick look at Philippe shows he is also maintaining, and seemingly headed eventually to an inevitable wall of shear. It's interesting that our #1 ECMWF kills Philippe and our #3 GFDL makes him a hurricane. NHC is forced to disregard models it holds in high regard - this happens sometimes - but the models agree on a whopping 120 degree turn out to the open Atlantic and when that happens, we may have a period of calm.
Now...here is what the GFS is forecasting the MJO to do:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...O/foregfs.shtml
What this means is a forecast for literally a record intensity for the MJO in Phase 8, our phase, in mid October. With Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean remaining very warm, it wouldn't take much for a spin to develop, if the forecast were to hold up. We also have lingering activity in the Cape Verde theater, late in that season. That would be a particularly bad combination with a strong MJO moving intp Phase 1, so there is still a lot of intrigue to this year's tropical chapter.
Now...here is what the GFS is forecasting the MJO to do:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...O/foregfs.shtml
What this means is a forecast for literally a record intensity for the MJO in Phase 8, our phase, in mid October. With Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean remaining very warm, it wouldn't take much for a spin to develop, if the forecast were to hold up. We also have lingering activity in the Cape Verde theater, late in that season. That would be a particularly bad combination with a strong MJO moving intp Phase 1, so there is still a lot of intrigue to this year's tropical chapter.
Philippe is moving according to track, and we have a relative period of calm but for some subtropical rainy windy weather moving across Fla. But a subtle overall spin is trying to develop around the Caymans/E. Cuba and slightly North areas. Conditions are conducive enough to not dissipate it, so we will have to see. Meanwhile the MJO, after a couple of days of floundering around, raced across 90% of Phase 6 in 2 days, and is now nearly in Phase 7, closer and closer to the East Pacific where we have 2 dangerous tropical systems, both forecast to hit Mexico and possibly the Baja, with a one two punch of much rain and wind.
It's taken the MJO 2 days to travel about halfway through Phase 7. The center axis of it may be within a couple hundred miles east or west of Hawaii's longitude. This is in keeping with the GFS forecast. It is also in keeping with model predictions of a strong tropical wave developing off the coast of Nigeria in a week. So we'll be keeping an eye on these predictions whose confluence aren't to our advantage. But the MJO can also do good things, like allow for very wet conditions over the most severely droughted areas. Although La Nina in general does not bode well for Texarcana getting rain, major seasonal transitions can provide a lot of it, as we are so thankfully seeing. The MJO may help much more if it does not race out of here, leaving us with only a week or two of it's lingering effect.
It looks like an area of Western Mexico is going to get slammed by Hurricane Jova. Jova has basically a 100% likelihood of crossing over waters of very high total energy content, as the warm waters extend down deeper than the waters Jova is over now. Behind Jova is a weakening system, but that will also bring more rain. This is a bad bad scenario for West central Mexico. Of note, our best model, the Euro, and our 3 less accurate major models all predict an Eastern path into the mountains and dissipating. Our 3 other major models, the more accurate ones, all predict Jova skirting the coast all the way up through the Gulf of California. This is a wide divergence gang style, and suggests there is something that only some of the models picked up on (rightly or wrongly). And it's very possible that no one in NHC is quite sure of what that something may be yet.
It looks like an area of Western Mexico is going to get slammed by Hurricane Jova. Jova has basically a 100% likelihood of crossing over waters of very high total energy content, as the warm waters extend down deeper than the waters Jova is over now. Behind Jova is a weakening system, but that will also bring more rain. This is a bad bad scenario for West central Mexico. Of note, our best model, the Euro, and our 3 less accurate major models all predict an Eastern path into the mountains and dissipating. Our 3 other major models, the more accurate ones, all predict Jova skirting the coast all the way up through the Gulf of California. This is a wide divergence gang style, and suggests there is something that only some of the models picked up on (rightly or wrongly). And it's very possible that no one in NHC is quite sure of what that something may be yet.
I'm happy to report that the very strong MJO has arrived right at a time that it has almost nothing to whip up. We have one disturbance, a large diffuse one, that has a lot of shear, very little spin, and not a lot of moisture to help it. Even a strong MJO can't catalyze that. There is a small chance of development, but most likely the MJO will turn it into a very wet system that drenches Florida instead of a tropical cyclone. Of course, nothing is cast in stone, and several systems that were specifically predicted to not develop, did. So we are not exactly out of the woods yet, but we can at least see the meadow up ahead - tho as unusual as this season has been, no one with Caribbean or Gulf Coast interests should relax yet, especially if the second half of the GFS prediction for the MJO holds. The GFS predicted virtually the strongest MJO we have ever seen, and basically we have that; but it also predicted that the rapid transit of it would come to a crashing halt in Phase 8. We shall see if that also occurs. At any rate, Florida looks to be in for a very wet event in a few days.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics....Last40days.gif
Very intense pulse it has become, moving fast, off the GFS forecast. Since it is intense, perhaps something that is merely a benign spin will be catalyzed and a storm quickly develops. Not in any forecast but until the MJO is over Africa it's best to be prudent. Phase 1 can still affect us, and a rare late CV system can suddenly materialize with an MJO like this, even a fast moving one as this. La Nina won't hurt the chances either. We are seriously off the beaten path of NHC, but still best to be watchful.
Very intense pulse it has become, moving fast, off the GFS forecast. Since it is intense, perhaps something that is merely a benign spin will be catalyzed and a storm quickly develops. Not in any forecast but until the MJO is over Africa it's best to be prudent. Phase 1 can still affect us, and a rare late CV system can suddenly materialize with an MJO like this, even a fast moving one as this. La Nina won't hurt the chances either. We are seriously off the beaten path of NHC, but still best to be watchful.
And just like that the HWRF jumps on the bandwagon first with a 95 mph hurricane hitting the West Coast of Florida in several days.The other models are now filing in line, though none say hurricane. TS is the preferred model guess right now. There are two considerations: the trough marching East that could coincide with this system, and the shear it has to move through. It's very early in this forecast change, so the models have a lot to digest to see if they verify. Some will have a new product at midnight.
Meanwhile you can see what all the fuss is about. The MJO can still affect anything CV too; it is very intense and in Phase 1. Look at how the spin of the Caribbean system has increased and clouds thickened:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
Meanwhile you can see what all the fuss is about. The MJO can still affect anything CV too; it is very intense and in Phase 1. Look at how the spin of the Caribbean system has increased and clouds thickened:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
The Florida storm didn't quite make it to the model prediction, but it is a real weather maker nonetheless. The MJO is transiting very rapidly and strongly. Gone are the big pools of ultra-dry air in the Atlantic; it's all moistening up, although prevailing conditions do not allow for any real spin just about anywhere right now. That might change in a week, and the moisture is likely going to stay. But for now, Florida is the game in town, and it's nowhere near a hurricane, and that's a relief.
There's possibly some interesting things brewing in the Caribbean. It appears favorable in general.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
These thunderstorm pulses have maintained for some time now. Further East a loose blob of moisture is forecast by long range GFS model to develop a respectable tropical system in about 5 days. The GFS is fairly good at this, and a couple other models that get out that far are tending to echo the GFS. We have days to watch. Some of the truly die hard weather heads on the blog have sifted through endless atmospheric maps and have found that just last year Hurricane Tomas, an end of October storm, formed near the GFS present prediction coordinates, formed in similar atmospheric features, and took a track remarkably similar to the GFS forecast track for it's predicted storm.
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-tomas-2010
This is virtually the GFS track atm, so we go by what the statistics show, and we see a North to NNE trek up the Caribbean right between Haiti and Cuba. This would be most unfortunate for Haiti. There are some indications (not in the models) also that the storm if it forms would maybe head a little more Westward before North, bringing it over the Cayman Islands (where family is ) and Cuba. There are no good tracks for a Caribbean storm. We wait and see if a spin develops over the W. Caribbean, and in the Central Caribbean, in the next 3 days or so.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
These thunderstorm pulses have maintained for some time now. Further East a loose blob of moisture is forecast by long range GFS model to develop a respectable tropical system in about 5 days. The GFS is fairly good at this, and a couple other models that get out that far are tending to echo the GFS. We have days to watch. Some of the truly die hard weather heads on the blog have sifted through endless atmospheric maps and have found that just last year Hurricane Tomas, an end of October storm, formed near the GFS present prediction coordinates, formed in similar atmospheric features, and took a track remarkably similar to the GFS forecast track for it's predicted storm.
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-tomas-2010
This is virtually the GFS track atm, so we go by what the statistics show, and we see a North to NNE trek up the Caribbean right between Haiti and Cuba. This would be most unfortunate for Haiti. There are some indications (not in the models) also that the storm if it forms would maybe head a little more Westward before North, bringing it over the Cayman Islands (where family is
) and Cuba. There are no good tracks for a Caribbean storm. We wait and see if a spin develops over the W. Caribbean, and in the Central Caribbean, in the next 3 days or so.
Things are continuing to percolate. The disturbance that the GFS proposes in the Central Caribbean is still weak, but the disturbance in the W. Caribbean is ramping up. There are some hindrances, but the mid level shear might not be enough to compensate for the very warm waters, and the depth of the warmth is impressive, so the energy available is more than we want to see. As always, the stronger a warm core system gets, the taller and mor solid the cylinder becomes, and more of the atmosphere can steer it. The trough approaching the East US and the wind direction would bring it North, over the Caymans and Cuba, but the steering winds may be very low. So far, no model is saying hurricane yet, but I've read that Autumn storms are routinely under-forecast in intensity. If the system remains weak, only the lower steering would affect it, and that steering is West, not North. Now that "Kong" - the ECMWF - has come on board with the development (it resisted until the last run and then did an about face) of this invest, the mets are pretty much stroking their beards, and we wait for the Hurricane Hunters, continuing buoy readings, and the midnight model products.
Here is some continuous buoy data in the area. They link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
Here's the link to all the buoys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/to_station.shtml
Here is some continuous buoy data in the area. They link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
Here's the link to all the buoys:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/to_station.shtml
Quick update: 96L next to Mexico is getting better organized, but not quick enough to strongly favor the North track; forecast is for a small sized weak TS to hit W to NW of present location.
Of greater salience to us is the large diffuse moist mass - 97L - in the central Caribbean, the one the GFS develops and tracks similar to Tomas that we mentioned. 97L will eventually be moving out of a harsh environment into a much better one; that has been the concern for this system for the past week. Circumstances haven't changed.
Of greater salience to us is the large diffuse moist mass - 97L - in the central Caribbean, the one the GFS develops and tracks similar to Tomas that we mentioned. 97L will eventually be moving out of a harsh environment into a much better one; that has been the concern for this system for the past week. Circumstances haven't changed.
The more notable of the two tropical systems has shifted back to 96L, due to it's rapid intensification to TS Rina. NHC has been half-expecting this since the waters are so very warm and deep, and it finally coalesced and happened. Now it's time to really figure out where this is going. Models see no reason why it won't strengthen further, and indeed it looks remarkably better than yesterday. The Caymans are already getting near TS winds and inches of rain. The issue is - how robust the cylinder gets, and how soon it could be dragged North to NE. It's not strong enough to go anywhere but W NW and even flounder about, but the approaching trough that will give the East Coast some rainn, will eventually be able to lift Rina North if she gets strong enough. By then however, she could start weakening even as she is pulled North. But we do not know what may happen next.
meanwhile, the system that could be the major showstopper is still a weak diffuse blob moving WNW from the Central Caribbean. Models keep holding to the same scenario from several days ago: it moves into better conditions all around, and then we see what we see, in about 3-4 days. I am worried about this system.
meanwhile, the system that could be the major showstopper is still a weak diffuse blob moving WNW from the Central Caribbean. Models keep holding to the same scenario from several days ago: it moves into better conditions all around, and then we see what we see, in about 3-4 days. I am worried about this system.
Rina has been a hurricane for much of today, and now that she is, there is every reason for the engines to turn on further. Not that it's perfect conditions: there are still pools of dry air, but the available energy is more than the storm can even use - all faucets turned on. Until harsher conditions are met, it intensifies. But harsher conditions indeed exist in the Gulf courtesy of storm-destroying Western winds. The models are everywhere since no one knows whether Rina goes West or North. We don't know. NHC guesses West. It's a guess. Look at the CIMSS and decide for yourself:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...201118_sat.html
scroll down to see the sat shot. Rina looking healthy. It's a funny thing, you watch and study tropical systems enough, they almost seem alive and conscious. When they make that decision to turn on, they really can go. Rina is the second fastest forming hurricane from tropical depression since record keeping began in 1851 - 21 hours. The record is only 3 hours faster.
We can just watch 97L, and hope it does not develop. The environment is there, but models are backing off on development. However, note that they did not initially catch Rina accurately either. Autumn tropical systems are different creatures.
For those reading this post the night I have posted it - ~11:45 EDT, go outside!! The Aurora is currently spilled over into the US as far South as the Southern US - now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...201118_sat.html
scroll down to see the sat shot. Rina looking healthy. It's a funny thing, you watch and study tropical systems enough, they almost seem alive and conscious. When they make that decision to turn on, they really can go. Rina is the second fastest forming hurricane from tropical depression since record keeping began in 1851 - 21 hours. The record is only 3 hours faster.
We can just watch 97L, and hope it does not develop. The environment is there, but models are backing off on development. However, note that they did not initially catch Rina accurately either. Autumn tropical systems are different creatures.
For those reading this post the night I have posted it - ~11:45 EDT, go outside!! The Aurora is currently spilled over into the US as far South as the Southern US - now.
Quick post; no real change. The models are still split over Rina. Of greatest import is: does she get strong enough to feel the effects of the coming trough (which may evolve into it's own creature, a bona fide Nor'Easter - which will bring SNOW to some areas of the NE US!)? Some models think so, although Rina is still headed NW. Luckily the Gulf is a very harsh environment so Rina, if she heads to the Keys, will be strongly Buffeted - pun intended 
Finally able to post, only to say that the tropics afa CONUS effects are concerned, is likely done. We still have very warm waters, but the autumn brings Jet Stream changes, as the NE US has just seen, and these changes deflect tropical systems away from us. Still, it has been a very active year, and further Tropical systems are not out of the question, tho they'd likely be far from threatening. So we will see if there remains a reason to add a post or two. There seemed to be some interest in this thread, so I was glad to have contributed what information I could.
In a truly curious tropical season, it shouldn't be so unusual perhaps for more unusual events to happen. And we have that.
First off, a subtropical storm has formed, Sean, and although the models do not suggest a hurricane at this point, the cloud structure just keeps on improving. There are signs that the core of this system could warm up, going fully tropical and getting more dangerous for Bermuda. Sean is between Bermuda and the Bahamas, moving NW.
Not as threatening to the US, but far more interesting, is a strange storm that has stalled firmly within the Mediterranean. Since it has stalled, it has acquired tropical characteristics including a cloud-free vortex, and NHC, not in jurisdiction here, has commented that it virtually satisfies criteria for a TS, including 50 mph winds. However it ends up being classified, the bottom line is that South France will receive a storm with very heavy rain, winds sustained at 50 mph gusting to hurricane force, and if this hit you or I, we'd call it a TS with occasional hurricane conditions.
First off, a subtropical storm has formed, Sean, and although the models do not suggest a hurricane at this point, the cloud structure just keeps on improving. There are signs that the core of this system could warm up, going fully tropical and getting more dangerous for Bermuda. Sean is between Bermuda and the Bahamas, moving NW.
Not as threatening to the US, but far more interesting, is a strange storm that has stalled firmly within the Mediterranean. Since it has stalled, it has acquired tropical characteristics including a cloud-free vortex, and NHC, not in jurisdiction here, has commented that it virtually satisfies criteria for a TS, including 50 mph winds. However it ends up being classified, the bottom line is that South France will receive a storm with very heavy rain, winds sustained at 50 mph gusting to hurricane force, and if this hit you or I, we'd call it a TS with occasional hurricane conditions.
This would be a good test to see if there is any moderation, since you are not allowed to fabricate fake posts made by others.
Here are the search results for the time period you quoted.
You will notice that I made no posts on "QUOTE (soundhertz @ Aug 27 2011, 02:43 PM)"
There have been many transgressions made here over the years, but one thing that has never been tolerated is fabricating false posts and attributing them to an innocent party. Although you have stopped short of libel, I know this is still a breach of FCC regulations...
btw you are not anonymous just by being unregistered. The forum has a record of your IP ID.
Your post is reported.
Here are the search results for the time period you quoted.
You will notice that I made no posts on "QUOTE (soundhertz @ Aug 27 2011, 02:43 PM)"
There have been many transgressions made here over the years, but one thing that has never been tolerated is fabricating false posts and attributing them to an innocent party. Although you have stopped short of libel, I know this is still a breach of FCC regulations...
btw you are not anonymous just by being unregistered. The forum has a record of your IP ID.
Your post is reported.
QUOTE
No new 2011 Tropics (Pages 1 2 3 )
soundhertz Posted on: Aug 27 2011, 07:11 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 1711 My gig just got cancelled cool.gif
Simply an amazing storm. I am mindboggled by the pics, no matter what format they are. I am researching if there's ever been a C1 storm like this. It's pressure actually dropped over NC. It's forward speed is atypically slow, although finally some indication of increase is seen in the last couple of frames. Although any increase also affects surge to our detriment, we need to get this thing out of here. It's too big to move slowly. That could produce unprecedented devastation. So this latest frame or two is encouraging.
Soon there will be talk of the interaction between Irene and the trough up north. There's already been a highway of inflow from the Caribbean that's added energy all day. Now the trough.
There has been a jet that forecasters were concerned with intermingling with Irene, and there was a moist frontal boundary - that was what the storms last night were - expected to combine with Irene. Well folks, all these players have not disappointed. May I say synergy? This storm certainly looks to maintain, and just that is saying a lot, because there's a lot being maintained. Forecasters are especially worried about the moist frontal boundary being utilized by Irene. They have actually upped our totals to 12" of rainfall. Wind gusts in the Philly area are now forecasted up to 70mph.
Forum: Other Sciences · Post Preview: #492012
No new Atheistic Fundamentalism (Pages 1 2 3 ...50 )
soundhertz Posted on: Aug 27 2011, 03:43 PM
Replies: 1475
Views: 21126 But your posts are similar to the hissy fit ones of years ago. I'm well over it. Just look at some of the stuff you've said. These are empirical observations.
What would your religious peers and friends say if they saw the sexual comments? The popular understanding is that sexual type slurs are not appropriate in your case. I bring this up because in light of your devotion to Christianity, it's a real head scratcher.
Forum: Creation / Evolution · Post Preview: #492003
No new Atheistic Fundamentalism (Pages 1 2 3 ...50 )
soundhertz Posted on: Aug 27 2011, 11:00 AM
Replies: 1475
Views: 21126
QUOTE
... and added that I'd gladly go the same route IF he was suspended for a particular reason.
I'm sorry, that makes no sense. You would not gladly go the same route. You say it, but few here would believe it. How many times have you left in a hissy fit, to never come back? We all have memories laugh.gif
Forum: Creation / Evolution · Post Preview: #491993
soundhertz Posted on: Aug 27 2011, 07:11 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 1711 My gig just got cancelled cool.gif
Simply an amazing storm. I am mindboggled by the pics, no matter what format they are. I am researching if there's ever been a C1 storm like this. It's pressure actually dropped over NC. It's forward speed is atypically slow, although finally some indication of increase is seen in the last couple of frames. Although any increase also affects surge to our detriment, we need to get this thing out of here. It's too big to move slowly. That could produce unprecedented devastation. So this latest frame or two is encouraging.
Soon there will be talk of the interaction between Irene and the trough up north. There's already been a highway of inflow from the Caribbean that's added energy all day. Now the trough.
There has been a jet that forecasters were concerned with intermingling with Irene, and there was a moist frontal boundary - that was what the storms last night were - expected to combine with Irene. Well folks, all these players have not disappointed. May I say synergy? This storm certainly looks to maintain, and just that is saying a lot, because there's a lot being maintained. Forecasters are especially worried about the moist frontal boundary being utilized by Irene. They have actually upped our totals to 12" of rainfall. Wind gusts in the Philly area are now forecasted up to 70mph.
Forum: Other Sciences · Post Preview: #492012
No new Atheistic Fundamentalism (Pages 1 2 3 ...50 )
soundhertz Posted on: Aug 27 2011, 03:43 PM
Replies: 1475
Views: 21126 But your posts are similar to the hissy fit ones of years ago. I'm well over it. Just look at some of the stuff you've said. These are empirical observations.
What would your religious peers and friends say if they saw the sexual comments? The popular understanding is that sexual type slurs are not appropriate in your case. I bring this up because in light of your devotion to Christianity, it's a real head scratcher.
Forum: Creation / Evolution · Post Preview: #492003
No new Atheistic Fundamentalism (Pages 1 2 3 ...50 )
soundhertz Posted on: Aug 27 2011, 11:00 AM
Replies: 1475
Views: 21126
QUOTE
... and added that I'd gladly go the same route IF he was suspended for a particular reason.
I'm sorry, that makes no sense. You would not gladly go the same route. You say it, but few here would believe it. How many times have you left in a hissy fit, to never come back? We all have memories laugh.gif
Forum: Creation / Evolution · Post Preview: #491993
The administrator needs to get off his butt and manage this place, or pull the plug on it.
95% of the posts made here these days are trolls, commercial spam, or attempts at humor from children.
95% of the posts made here these days are trolls, commercial spam, or attempts at humor from children.
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